Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor(30 Sept- 06 Oct 2024)

Economic

How China’s 2024 stimulus compares with past packages, and what’s next?

Chinese leaders surprised the world last week by announcing wide-ranging stimulus measures and issuing a rallying cry to Communist Party officials in a bid to lift a weary property sector, stoke consumption and revive capital markets – all hallmarks of China’s economically challenging 2024. China has tried writ-large stimulus before. Here we take a look at what has been done in the past, and what to expect in the near future, according to two international investment banks. How big could this round of stimulus be? The total size of China’s stimulus package this year, including plans announced last week, is estimated to be about 7.5 trillion yuan (US$1.07 trillion), or equivalent to 6 per cent of the country’s GDP in 2024, Deutsche Bank said in a research note on Oct 03. This could “potentially become the largest in history, in nominal terms”, if the government delivers on all of the announced measures, according to Deutsche Bank. The 7.5-trillion-yuan estimate includes a combined 2.5 trillion yuan cut in mortgage-debt servicing and two new 800 billion yuan “facilities” for the stock market, according to announcements on September 24 by the People’s Bank of China. The central bank also factored in an estimated 2 trillion yuan worth of bond issuance to help consumers and encourage local government spending, along with an additional 1 trillion yuan in capital for major state-owned banks, as the Politburo meeting on September 26 committed to more fiscal stimulus. Click here to read... [2]

Japan PM Instructs Ministers to Compile Comprehensive Economic Package

Japan’s new prime minister has instructed his cabinet ministers to come up with a comprehensive economic package, taking his first step toward the goal of ensuring the country manages to fully exit deflation. Shigeru Ishiba said Oct 04 that the stimulus package will focus on easing the burden of rising living costs, boosting growth and strengthening relief and preparedness measures for natural disasters. “We need to make three years of intensive efforts to ensure that we overcome deflation without the risk of reversing the virtuous cycle,” Ishiba said in his order to the ministers. The prime minister also gave instructions for an additional spending plan for disaster-affected areas to be made by mid-October. Ishiba, who was formally selected as the nation’s prime minister earlier this week, is viewed as being in favor of tighter fiscal and monetary policy. But analysts say he will likely refrain from taking a hawkish tone, prioritizing reinforcing unity within the ruling party until a general election that is due to be held on Oct. 27. “The unique character of the Ishiba administration is likely to be demonstrated only after the lower house election,” Daiwa Securities economist Mari Iwashita said. Ishiba called the snap election earlier this week, which will see his party look to hold on to their majority in the lower house of parliament. Click here to read... [3]

China, Asean aim to clinch free-trade deal upgrade led by EVs, e-commerce

More e-commerce and tighter supply chain connections are expected after China and a key 10-nation bloc of Southeast Asian countries said they were pushing to finish talks toward upgrading a landmark free-trade deal, analysts said. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), which encompasses a 673 million population and several fast-growing economies, is “actively working” with China to upgrade the Asean-China Free Trade Area pact, the bloc’s secretary general Kao Kim Hourn told a joint leadership event in China last week. China said it was working for an “early conclusion” of the upgrade to the pact signed in 2009, the official Xinhua News Agency said, quoting Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang. Talks toward an upgrade had begun in November 2022, with the goal of clinching a deal this year. The so-called version 3.0 upgrade to the deal would cover “megatrends of our time”, such as the digital economy and environmental protections, Hourn said. An upgrade to the 14-year-old pact would come as Chinese entrepreneurs seek to sell and source more goods in non-Western countries to shelter from tariff-intensive trade disputes led by the United States and the European Union, which have also pushed China away from some global supply chains. An upgrade to the 14-year-old pact would come as Chinese entrepreneurs seek to sell and source more goods in non-Western countries to shelter from tariff-intensive trade disputes. Click here to read... [4]

German vote against EV tariffs undercuts EU's tougher China stance

Germany on Oct 04 voted against planned import duties on China-made electric vehicles, Nikkei Asia has learned, in a move that deepens the rift between Europe's largest economy and the European Commission. Berlin's resistance, confirmed by diplomats in Brussels, was not enough to shift the overall vote for tariffs, which was supported by France and Italy. But it signals to China that there is more room for negotiation in favor of its car industry. For now, the EC's plan to levy additional duties of up to 35.3% on EV imports from China -- on top of an existing 10% -- is due to go ahead in November. The highest rate applies to SAIC Motor, which is Volkswagen's joint venture partner in China. The EC said in a statement: "In parallel, the EU and China continue to work hard to explore an alternative solution that would have to be fully WTO-compatible, adequate in addressing the injurious subsidization established by the Commission's investigation, monitorable and enforceable." The China Chamber of Commerce to the EU posted a statement on X after the EC news, calling the vote a "politically motivated and unjustified protectionist measure" and urging "consultation and dialogue" to resolve the dispute. Click here to read... [5]

Bangladesh's garment industry aims for equal male-female employment

Bangladesh's female-dominated garment industry is about to be less so now that factory owners have agreed to hire equally among the sexes, an answer to the country's worsening unemployment problem and an acquiescence to garment workers' demands. The demand was one of 18 made by the workers, who also asked for a new wage structure that would lead to raises and help workers cope with severe inflation. Factory owners accepted these requests in late September after a month of protests. The demand for equal employment opportunities came mainly from male workers. With employers in recent years providing fewer jobs in the nation of 171.2 million, the number of unemployed Bangladeshis reached 2.64 million in June, according to a quarterly survey by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Syed Nazrul Islam, vice president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said the global industry hires mostly females due to their "smooth handling of sophisticated fashion works." Women, in general, have a reputation in the industry for being better at sewing than men, while men are seen as more suited to ironing and other physically demanding jobs. The garment industry has contributed to women's empowerment in impoverished Bangladesh to some extent. However, the ratio of female workers in the country's garment industry has already declined to about 57%, compared with around 80% in the 1990s, according to Mapped in Bangladesh. Click here to read... [6]

IMF Pledges to Support Bangladesh Reforms for Economic Stability

The International Monetary Fund pledged to work with Bangladesh’s interim government to regain economic stability as the country struggles to reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves. An IMF mission team led by Chris Papageorgiou discussed recent developments in the South Asian country and the authorities’ reform priorities during a visit from Sept. 24-30, according to a statement Sept 30 from the Washington-based lender. This was its first visit since Muhammad Yunus took over as head of the interim government on Aug. 8. The formation of the government has helped stabilize political and security conditions “fostering a gradual return to normalcy in the economy,” Papageorgiou said in the statement. “Nonetheless, economic activity has slowed markedly, while inflation remains at double-digit levels, owing to the recent turbulence and major floods.” The deterioration in the balance of payments has put additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves and tax revenue collection has declined, while spending pressures have increased and domestic payment arrears have accumulated, he said. Bangladesh sought $3 billion in additional funds from the IMF to rebuild foreign currency reserves as it’s under pressure to pay bills for overseas purchases. This would be in addition to a $4.7 billion loan program with the IMF. Click here to read... [7]

Frustrated with US, Argentina’s Milei seeks rapprochement with China

Argentine President Javier Milei, who harshly criticised China during his election campaign, has announced plans to visit Beijing in January 2025, signalling a potential shift in his approach to the Asian superpower. In a television interview this week, Milei described China as a “very interesting commercial partner” and said he was “positively surprised by China” – a stark contrast to his earlier rhetoric, in which he referred to China as an “assassin” state while vowing to prioritise relations with Western allies. Milei expressed gratitude for China’s renewal of currency swap contracts, which he said enabled Argentina to meet its obligations to the International Monetary Fund. In June, Beijing agreed to renew tranches of currency swaps worth 35 billion yuan (about US$5 billion) with Argentina’s central bank until July 2026. At the time, the government in Buenos Aires stressed that the measure would be “crucial” to managing the country’s balance of payments flows. “We had a meeting with the ambassador [Wang Wei],” Milei recounted. “The next day, they unblocked the swaps.” Any warming in Milei’s ties with Beijing would be a significant development in the battle for influence in Latin America between China, which has invested an estimated US$155 billion in infrastructure projects in the region since 2005. Click here to read... [8]

South Korea, France, Italy hunt for arms deals as Russian exports fall

As Moscow's war in Ukraine squeezes Russian arms exports, South Korea, France and Italy are rushing to court buyers exploring alternative sources of defense equipment. Defense officials from around 30 countries are set to gather in the South Korean city of Gyeryong starting Oct 02 for the Korea Army International Defense Industry Exhibition (KADEX), billed as Asia's largest defense expo. South Korean defense contractors especially look to engage with senior ASEAN officials at the event to tap growing weapons demand in Southeast Asia. When South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol met in July with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, he vowed to advance bilateral defense cooperation and transfer a retired South Korean naval vessel to Vietnam. Vietnam has long relied on the former Soviet bloc for defense equipment, and Russia remains its largest source for weaponry. But Hanoi is exploring alternative sources like South Korea as Russia dedicates more of its weapons to the war in Ukraine and grows closer to China, which has complicated relations with Vietnam. The U.S. and Russia ranked as the world's top defense exporters through the five-year period ending in 2018, data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute going back to 1954 shows. Click here to read... [9]

Japan expands LNG flexibility via ties with South Korea, Italy

Japan has agreed on Oct 06 to study cooperating with South Korea and Italy on procurement of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as the world's second-biggest LNG importer after China seeks greater flexibility while strengthening its energy security. JERA, Japan's biggest utility company, and South Korea's Korea Gas, also a major LNG buyer, are collaborating on opportunities for joint procurement, cargo swaps and other forms of cooperation, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said in a statement on Oct 06. "The governments of both countries expect that this endeavour will serve as the starting point for a new LNG cooperation between Korean and Japanese companies," said the statement co-signed by the South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy. Separately, the state-backed Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) signed a preliminary agreement with Italian energy company Eni to cooperate on LNG procurement, as Eni also seeks investors for its LNG projects. "We already deal with Japanese buyers on a short-term basis and we would like to expand that collaboration also to a long-term basis," Cristian Signoretto, Eni's director for global gas and LNG portfolio, told reporters on the sidelines of an LNG conference in Hiroshima on Oct 06. Click here to read... [10]

Shinkansen turns 60 boasting track record of speed, comfort, safety

Passengers who were on the same platform at JR Tokyo Station 60 years ago got a sense of deja vu when seeing off a departing Nozomi No. 1 Shinkansen on Oct. 1. In a similar ceremony as held then, JR Tokai officials were on hand to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Shinkansen's inauguration with the departure of the Hikari No. 1 train on Oct. 1, 1964. The Tokaido Shinkansen connecting Tokyo and Shin-Osaka stations marked the world’s first high-speed rail service. Over the decades, the bullet train's top speed has increased from 210 kph to 320 kph. Initially, the 0 Series Shinkansen travelled at a maximum speed of 210 kph, making it the first train to operate at over 200 kph. However, since the Tokaido Shinkansen line was constructed in a rush for the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, it initially took four hours for the Hikari to travel between Tokyo and Shin-Osaka stations until the roadbed was solidified. The following year, the time was shortened to three hours and 10 minutes. In 1992, Central Japan Railway Co. (JR Tokai) launched the 300 Series Shinkansen, capable of reaching speeds up to 270 kph. Operating as the Nozomi, it reduced the Tokyo to Shin-Osaka travel time to just two and a half hours, which was seen as a competitive alternative to air travel. Click here to read... [11]

EU’s largest economy facing new recession – media

The German economy will contract for a second year in a row, the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper reported on Oct 06. Hammered by soaring energy costs after cutting itself off from Russian gas, Germany was the only major developed economy to shrink last year. According to the newspaper, Germany’s Economy Ministry plans to downgrade its 2024 forecast from a growth rate of 0.3% to a contraction of 0.2%. After last year’s contraction of 0.3%, the latest revision will mark the second straight year of recession in Germany. The ministry will announce a projected growth rate of 1.1% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, the report continued, noting that Economy Minister Robert Habeck was counting on a package of tax cuts and energy subsidies to boost production and spending. German economic institutes aren’t convinced that these measures will work. In a report published last month, a group of six leading think tanks predicted a growth rate of 0.8% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. Energy prices soared in Germany after the Ukraine conflict began in 2022, when Berlin stopped importing Russian oil and gas. Germany relied on Russia for 55% of its natural gas imports before the conflict, and with the country already phasing out its nuclear power infrastructure in favor of renewables, the shortfall caused energy prices to soar and drove up the cost of manufacturing. Click here to read... [12]

Oil Prices Climb on Expectations of Further Escalation in the Middle East

Crude oil prices rose further Oct 02 on fears that the war in the Middle East is going to get bigger and more intense after Iran fired missiles at Israel, with WTI still above $70 and Brent crude close to $75 per barrel. Tehran said early Oct 02 that the attack was over—unless there was further provocation—while Israel essentially signalled it would guarantee such “provocation” as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing Iran “will pay” for the attack. The UN’s Security Council has scheduled a meeting to discuss the latest events in the Middle East later Oct 02. The European Union has called for an immediate ceasefire. “Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on X “Our action is concluded unless Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful.” “Israel's enablers now have a heightened responsibility to rein in the warmongers in Tel Aviv instead of getting involved in their folly,” Araqchi added, also noting in the statement that Iran’s attack was an act of “self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter, targeting solely military & security sites in charge of genocide in #Gaza and #Lebanon.” Click here to read... [13]

U.S. Administration Buys 6 Million Barrels of Crude for SPR

The U.S. Administration has awarded contracts to buy 6 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for deliveries through May 2025, the Department of Energy said this week. The contracts were awarded last week and are for deliveries of 1.5 million barrels per month between February and May 2025 to the Bayou Choctaw site in Louisiana, following the Request for Proposal (RFP) that was announced on September 18. In August, the Administration said that the United States would continue to buy crude when prices are in the $70s a barrel or lower and plans to add several million barrels of crude to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve early next year. At the time of the awarding of the latest contracts for the SPR refill, the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude traded below $70 per barrel. To date, DOE has directly purchased over 56 million barrels of oil for the SPR at an average price of about $76 per barrel, it said. “This is nearly $20 per barrel lower than the $95 average sales price for 2022’s emergency sales, meeting the Administration’s commitment to secure a good deal for taxpayers,” the Energy Department said. “DOE will continue to evaluate options to refill the SPR while securing a good deal for taxpayers, taking into account planned exchange returns and market developments.” Click here to read... [14]

Robots are Making Nuclear Energy Safer and More Efficient

Innovations in technology are helping boost safety in nuclear energy operations through the use of robots, which can decrease human exposure to operational hazards. Energy companies around the globe are integrating autonomous smart technologies into operations to improve health and safety, reduce costs, and enhance remote access. Robots have become widely used in both fossil fuels and renewable energy operations worldwide and now their role in nuclear energy projects is expanding. Nuclear companies are increasingly using robotics for decommissioning activities, as well as monitoring operations. The use of robots is expected to grow in the coming years thanks to continual technological innovations and a greater openness to modernisation through digitalisation. In September, researchers used a fully autonomous robot to inspect the inside of a nuclear fusion reactor in a first-of-a-kind project looking at how to improve remote monitoring activities. The project at the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority's (AEA) Joint European Torus (JET) facility spanned 35 days. The Atomic Energy Authority used Boston Dynamics’ Spot robot to explore the reactor, using sensors to map the space, monitor conditions, move around obstacles and workers, and collect critical data. This job is typically conducted by human workers, but using robots for such tasks could help boost health and safety measures in nuclear operations. Click here to read... [15]

Hong Kong Loses Fifth Foreign Judge This Year as Record Exodus Extends

A record fifth foreign judge will leave Hong Kong’s top court this year, further thinning the ranks of overseas jurists whose presence was seen as a selling point for foreign companies looking to do business in the Asian finance hub. Nicholas Phillips, a member of the UK House of Lords, won’t extend his term as a non-permanent judge at the city’s Court of Final Appeal when it expires Sept 30, according to a spokesperson for the judiciary. Phillips, 86, cited “personal reasons” for his decision after serving since 2012, the person said. His departure comes after a spate of judges exiting the court, with some resigning due to political reasons. Former overseas judge Jonathan Sumption sent shockwaves across the legal sector when he quit in June, citing a Beijing-imposed national security law that authorities have used to crush dissent. Hong Kong Free Press reported Phillips’ decision earlier Sept 30. Only six foreign judges will remain on the court after Phillips’ departure, down from 15 in 2019, a level last seen in the early years following the British colony’s return to Chinese rule. “An overwhelming majority of the serving and departed NPJs have publicly reiterated their continued confidence in judicial independence in Hong Kong,” the judicial spokesperson said of the non-permanent judges, adding the court will continue to identify suitable local and overseas candidates for appointment. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Japan's Ishiba seen calling Oct. 27 election after becoming prime minister

Japan's new ruling Liberal Democratic Party leader, Shigeru Ishiba, who is certain to become the next prime minister, intends to call a general election for Oct. 27, senior party officials said Sept 29. Earlier in the day, Ishiba, a former defense minister, decided to dissolve the House of Representatives in October to seek a public mandate after engaging in parliamentary debates with opposition parties, sources close to him said. Ishiba, meanwhile, has accelerated the selection of new executives of the ruling party and members of his prospective government, considering appointing former Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya as foreign minister, the sources said. Some lawmakers said Ishiba aims to stabilize his party's weak internal base by tapping heavyweights for key posts, such as former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Suga is believed to have backed Ishiba in the runoff against economic security minister Sanae Takaichi. But Takaichi has declined Ishiba's offer to become LDP General Council chief, the sources said, underscoring the difficulties the new leader faces in achieving postrace party unity before the potential lower house election in the not-so-distant future. Iwaya served as defense minister in the government of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had hawkish views. He supported Ishiba in Sept 27's election to become the LDP's president and, by extension, the next prime minister. Click here to read... [17]

Myanmar seeks ASEAN compromise to join first summit since takeover

Myanmar's embattled military government said it will send a senior Foreign Ministry official to next week's ASEAN summit in Laos, seeking to participate after a de facto ban on top-level representation as it pursues regional support. Aung Kyaw Moe, permanent secretary of the Foreign Ministry, will be sent to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in Vientiane to start on Oct. 9. He attended a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers in July. It will mark the first time in four years for Myanmar, one of the bloc's 10 member states, to participate in a regular ASEAN summit. After the February 2021 military takeover, ASEAN limited Myanmar's involvement in major meetings to "non-political" representatives, generally understood to exclude the top leader and cabinet members. The government had skip these events entirely in protest. ASEAN members are expected to agree to Naypyitaw's compromise of sending a senior diplomat this time. Myanmar's military ruler, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, attended a special summit in April 2021 in Indonesia, where members adopted a five-point consensus on the Myanmar crisis that called for an immediate end to the violence. Little progress has been made under this framework. If a government representative attends the upcoming summit, the agenda will likely include Myanmar's progress on implementing the consensus, as well as humanitarian aid. Click here to read... [18]

Bangladesh recalls 5 envoys in major diplomatic reshuffle

Bangladesh has recalled five envoys, including the ambassador to neighboring India, foreign ministry officials said on Oct 03, in a major diplomatic reshuffle as the interim government clears out holdovers from the previous administration. Political upheaval in the South Asian nation ushered in the interim government led by Nobel Peace laureate Muhammad Yunus after weeks of violent protests forced the Aug. 5 resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who then fled to India. The foreign ministry ordered envoys in Brussels, Canberra, Lisbon, New Delhi and the permanent mission to the United Nations in New York to immediately return to the capital, Dhaka, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "It's possible the government doesn't want them to continue, as they were appointed by Hasina's administration," said one government official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity. "It wouldn't be surprising if more changes in the diplomatic corps follow." The departure of Hasina's government has triggered a broad administrative overhaul, with hundreds of senior officials being reassigned or transferred, and the contracts of some key ones terminated, forcing many of them to resign or retire early. All the recalled diplomats are set to go on post-retirement leave in December, another foreign ministry official said. Click here to read... [19]

China’s Xi Jinping warns ‘Taiwan separatists’, stresses support for Hong Kong and Macau

President Xi Jinping used his annual National Day address on Sept 30 to send a strong warning to “separatists” on Taiwan and to emphasise backing for Hong Kong and Macau. Taiwan was “China’s sacred territory” and “the people on both sides of the [Taiwan] Strait are connected by blood”, Xi said at an official event in Beijing to mark Oct 01’s 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. “We must … promote the spiritual harmony of compatriots on both sides of the strait, and resolutely oppose ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist activities,” he said. It was the second warning in two months from Xi to independence advocates since William Lai Ching-te succeeded Tsai Ing-wen as the self-ruled island’s leader. Cross-strait tensions have grown since May when Lai came to power. Beijing has repeatedly accused Lai of sending dangerous signals on independence and opposed his push to improve combat readiness. It has also intensified military activities around the island. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force, if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise self-governed Taiwan as independent, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the island by force and is committed to arming it for defence. Click here to read... [20]

China on track to break 2023 ‘tigers’ record as top anti-corruption watchdog nets 44

With three months still to go on the calendar, China’s top anti-corruption watchdog has detained nearly the same number of “tigers” as it did last year, setting a fresh record for President Xi Jinping’s signature clean-up campaign. The latest “tiger” to fall is again one of its own, a senior inspector from the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) – China’s top political disciplinary and anti-corruption agency. Li Gang, a disciplinary head, had been deputed by the CCDI to the Central Organisation Department – the ruling Communist Party’s top personnel office. The CCDI announced on Sept 30 that Li was “under disciplinary review and supervision investigation” for “suspected serious violations of discipline and law” – a common official euphemism for corruption. Three other senior officials have also been placed under investigation on similar charges over the past fortnight. They are Cao Xingxin, deputy general manager of state-held telecoms giant China Unicom; Sun Yuning, deputy director of the General Administration of Customs; and former deputy education minister Du Yubo. This means a record 44 “tigers”, or senior cadres, were placed under investigation in the first nine months of the year – compared to 34 by the same time last year, according to a tally by the South China Morning Post. Click here to read... [21]

South Korea unveils its most powerful missile, which could reach North Korea’s underground bunkers

South Korea unveiled its most powerful ballistic missile and other weapons targeting North Korea during a massive Armed Forces Day ceremony Oct 01, as the president warned the North’s regime would collapse if it attempts to use nuclear weapons. South Korea’s weapons displays and warning against North Korea came after its northern rival recently rose regional animosities by disclosing its uranium-enrichment facility and tested missiles ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November. “If North Korea attempts to use nuclear weapons, it will face the resolute and overwhelming response of our military and the (South Korea)-U.S. alliance,” President Yoon Suk Yeol told thousands of troops gathered at a military airport near Seoul. “That day will be the end of the North Korean regime.” “The North Korean regime must abandon the delusion that nuclear weapons will protect them,” Yoon said. During the ceremony, the South Korean military displayed about 340 military equipment and weapons systems. Among them was its most powerful Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile, which observers say is capable of carrying about 8 tons of a conventional warhead that can penetrate deep into the earth and destroy underground bunkers in North Korea. It was the first time for South Korea to disclose that missile. Click here to read... [22]

Key U.S. Military Base Secured as U.K. Returns Disputed Islands to Mauritius

On Oct 03, the British government struck a deal with Mauritius, an island country off East Africa, to hand over a cluster of 58 tiny islands in the Indian Ocean known as the Chagos archipelago, ending a protracted battle over the U.K.’s last remaining African overseas territory. The deal, struck after years of legal wrangling, allows the U.K. to retain use of the largest atoll, Diego Garcia, for 99 years in return for an undisclosed sum of money. That atoll is home to a key U.S. military base and is seen as increasingly strategic when the U.S. is trying to assert its influence in the Indo-Pacific to counter China. The exact details of the split and how much the U.K. will pay Mauritius will be formalized in the treaty between the two countries. “The treaty will open a new chapter in our shared history,” the U.K. government said in a statement. The Biden administration said in a statement that it applauded the deal, and that it would secure the military base’s effective operation on Diego Garcia. The base—which is leased by Britain to the U.S. until 2036—was also used by U.S. long-range bombers during campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. But the news wasn’t without controversy. Click here to read... [23]

Moscow to remove Taliban from terrorist list

Moscow will remove the Taliban from the list of terrorist organizations, Zamir Kabulov, Russia’s presidential envoy to Afghanistan, told journalists on Oct 04. The change was also confirmed by Aleksandr Bortnikov, the head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), which is responsible for combating terrorist threats. Russia was among the first nations to establish contacts with the Taliban after it seized power in Afghanistan in 2021. Russia has not formally recognized the group as the governing force in the country, however. The group took power in Kabul during the last stage of the hectic withdrawal of US troops, which ended the 20-year Western occupation of Afghanistan. The Washington-backed government of President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, as did many citizens who helped the Americans. In May, Kabulov described the Taliban as “definitely not our enemies.” Speaking to reporters on Oct 04, the senior diplomat stated that the Russian Foreign Ministry and the FSB are working with other government agencies to formalize the Taliban’s removal from the national terrorist list. “A fundamental decision on this issue has already been made by the Russian leadership,” he said, adding that all legal procedures need to be allowed. It would require “scrupulous work by the lawyers, the parliament and other state agencies,” Kabulov said. He expressed hope that “the final decision will be announced in the nearest future.” Click here to read... [24]

Biden says he would not back Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites

United States President Joe Biden has voiced opposition to any strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites in response to Tehran’s missile attack on Israel. When asked by reporters on Oct 02 whether he would back such retaliation, Biden stated “the answer is no”. Biden’s comments come a day after Iran fired some 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, its second attack on the country since April. Iran’s most recent attacks on Israeli military sites have come in response to the assassination of key Iran-allied figures, including Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Iran would “pay” for the strike, which reportedly did not cause any serious casualties in Israel but killed one Palestinian in the occupied West Bank. Analysts warned Israel may seize the chance to launch attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a target its leaders have long eyed. “The risk of an [Israeli] attack on the nuclear programme is particularly high because Iran’s defensive shield Hezbollah is on its knees,” Ali Vaez, the Iran Project director at the International Crisis Group think tank, told Al Jazeera. “US forces are already in the region shielding Israel, and for Israel, this is potentially a once-in-a-generation opportunity to take care of a major threat that it has perceived from Iran over the past few decades,” he said. Click here to read... [25]

Israel reveals its military losses

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has published casualty list, revealing that it has lost at least 726 troops since the war in Gaza began a year ago. More than 4,500 soldiers have been injured in the same period, the force has claimed. Of the 726 killed, 346 died during ground operations in Gaza, which began on October 27 last year. These losses are the highest suffered by Israel during any military conflict since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, in which more than 2,600 Israeli soldiers were killed. Of the 726 killed, 56 died due to friendly fire or other “operational accidents,” the IDF stated. The IDF noted that the current body count only includes those “whose names have been permitted for publication,” meaning that the true number could be significantly higher. A total of 4,576 Israeli troops have been injured since the beginning of the war, 2,300 of them during ground operations in Gaza, the statement continued. Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, killing around 1,100 people and taking roughly 250 hostages back to Gaza. Israel responded by declaring war on the militant group and launching an intense bombing campaign in the Palestinian enclave. A ground operation followed three weeks later, and after a year of fighting, nearly 42,000 Palestinians lie dead, most of them women and children, according to Gaza’s health ministry. Click here to read... [26]

Tunisia reportedly jails presidential candidate Ayachi Zammel for 12 years

A candidate in Tunisia’s upcoming presidential election has been sentenced to 12 years in prison, according to his lawyer. Ayachi Zammel, a former lawmaker who heads a small liberal party, was jailed in four cases related to voter endorsements, his legal representative, Abdessater Massoudi said on Oct 01. It is the third prison sentence imposed on Zammel in two weeks, according to the lawyer, who insisted that his client “remains a candidate in the election” which will take place on October 6. On Sept 24, the Criminal Chamber of the Jendouba Court of First Instance sentenced Zammel to six months for “deliberately using a fraudulent certificate,” according to Tunisia’s TAP news agency. At the time, Massoudi told the Reuters news agency that it was “another unjust ruling and a farce that clearly aims to weaken him in the election race” and he pledged to defend Zammel’s right to take part in the vote. On September 18, his lawyer said Zammel had been handed a 20-month prison term for falsifying the signatures he gathered to file the candidacy papers needed to run for president. To appear on the ballot, candidates are required to present a list of signatures either from 10,000 registered voters, 10 parliamentarians or 40 local officials. Click here to read... [27]

Saudis Declare Neutrality on Iran-Israel Conflict

The world's largest oil exporter Saudi Arabia says that it is staying neutral and, on the sidelines, when it comes to the ratcheting wars in Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen - and the Iran vs. Israel showdown. Other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - which includes Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, and Kuwait - have also this week "sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality" in the Iran-Israel conflict, Reuters has reported. Prior to the Gaza war, Saudi Arabia was widely seen as on the cusp of signing a full normalization and diplomatic relations deal with Israel, as part of the Abraham Accords - but that was derailed in the wake of Oct.7. At the same time, Riyadh and Tehran have recently made peace. The kingdom is now seeking to assure Iran it will not join Israel's side. The Saudis and other GGC states wish to avoid the kind of attacks which could impact its oil production and exports, such as the 2019 Abqaiq–Khurais Saudi Aramco drones strike. The US blamed Iran for those historic attacks, but Tehran leaders never owned up to it. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has been in Doha this week. He told Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan on Oct 03, "We consider Islamic countries, including Saudi Arabia, as our brothers, and we emphasize the importance of setting aside differences to enhance cooperation." Click here to read... [28]

US Deploys a ‘Few Thousand’ More Troops to Middle East

The US is deploying a few thousand more troops to the Middle East to defend Israel as the country steps up attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Pentagon said. The additional forces are mostly made up of fighter-jet squadrons and units in the region that will stay longer than originally planned, Pentagon deputy spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters. On Sept 29, the Pentagon announced defensive air-support in the region would be reinforced in the coming days. The US is keeping more forces in the region to protect US citizens and come to Israel’s defense if needed, Singh said. The deployments come ahead of a possible Israeli ground assault against Hezbollah in Lebanon. That could trigger intensified missile attacks against Israel by the Iran-backed group. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had earlier ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to stay longer in the region. The US isn’t evacuating US citizens and the embassy in Beirut is operating under normal hours, Singh said. Click here to read... [29]

Arctic Allies to Form Security Group to Counter Russia, China

Canada is working with Nordic countries to create a new Arctic security coalition that would exclude Russia and offer a place to coordinate on defense, intelligence and cyber threats. Security talks among the northern allies are needed because they don’t meet privately at the political level anymore, partly due to Russia’s presence on the Arctic Council, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said. The Nordics are now all NATO members after Sweden’s accession earlier this year. “For a long time Canada, we thought we were protected by our geography. But now we need to reckon that we are a country facing Russia and because of climate change, more countries are interested in the Arctic, including China,” she said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “We need to be addressing this new reality.” Canada has pledged to strengthen its military presence in the Arctic after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s growing interest in the far north, shattered its sense of security in its vast northern territories. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is also trying to prove to the US that it’s a reliable partner on defense, especially as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump places a heavy emphasis on allies paying their share of security costs. Click here to read... [30]

Swing-State Election Officers Brace for Last-Minute Court Action

When the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled in September that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. couldn’t appear on the state’s ballots after he dropped his US presidential bid, Derek Bowens had to scramble. Bowens, the Durham County elections director, had already printed more than 145,000 absentee ballots. It cost $50,000 — a 25% markup on the normal cost — to quickly reprint them without Kennedy’s name. The litigation delayed North Carolina’s timeline for getting ballots to voters and cost counties $1 million combined, the state election board estimates. Pressure is building as courts handle the surge of litigation targeting voting processes before the Nov. 5 election, particularly in swing states like North Carolina. Officials say that amid the normal flurry of pre-election activity, they’re preparing as best they can for legal developments that could force a sudden pivot. “I’ve never watched so many cases,” said Joel Hondorp, the city clerk in Grand Rapids, Michigan, another battleground state contending with an uptick in election-related litigation. Kennedy unsuccessfully sued to get his name off of Michigan’s ballots. Hondorp said the secretary of state’s office takes the lead in alerting local officials about court developments, but he also independently monitored the activity in Kennedy’s case, even signing up for his own account to access court dockets. Click here to read... [31]

Health

What is the deadly Marburg virus and where has it spread?

Rwanda is fighting its first outbreak of the “highly virulent” Marburg virus which was first reported in late September. As of Oct 03, 11 people were reported to have died of the virus in Rwanda. The health minister announced the country will begin clinical trials of experimental vaccines and treatments. What is the Marburg virus? Marburg is from the same family as Ebola, namely the Filoviridae family (filovirus) of viruses. It has been described as more severe than Ebola. It causes a haemorrhagic fever, which is a type of fever that can damage the walls of blood vessels, according to information from the Mayo Clinic. Other diseases which produce this type of fever include dengue and yellow fever. According to the Mayo Clinic, a haemorrhagic fever causes internal bleeding, which can be fatal. The virus was first identified in 1967 in a town in Germany called Marburg, from which it gained its name. Simultaneously, it was identified in Belgrade, Serbia. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates the case fatality rate to be between 24 and 88 percent. On average, about half of all those who contract the virus die from it. After a person is exposed to the virus, it can take between two and 21 days for symptoms to show, according to the WHO. Click here to read... [32]

US’s $100 Billion HIV Program Commits to African Manufacturing

The US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, which represents the world’s biggest financial commitment to fight a single disease, is committed to having tests and vaccines made on the African continent, a US official said. The more than $100 billion program is pressing African nations to adopt the right regulations to allow the manufacture and procurement of medicines made on the continent, its head, John Nkengasong, said. It’s also pressing global health bodies to buy medications in Africa to fight the pandemic there. “We have been in discussions with the Global Fund,” an organization that spends more than $5 billion a year to fight HIV Aids, tuberculosis and malaria, he said in an interview in the South African capital, Pretoria, on Oct 02. “I’ve championed that drive to procure locally,” said Nkengasong, who also sits on the fund’s board. Two-thirds of those infected with HIV globally, which kills more than 600,000 people a year, are in Africa. South Africa has medicine and vaccine plants, as do Senegal and Egypt. And while a vaccine for HIV has yet to be developed, there are medicines that can counteract its spread. Pepfar has met with Gilead Sciences Inc. over making its twice-yearly experimental HIV prevention drug lenacapavir available in Africa, Nkengasong said. Click here to read... [33]