Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (16-22 September 2024)

Economic

Chinese deal activity shifts toward emerging markets and into greenfields

Chinese outbound foreign investment is shifting away from such advanced economies as the U.S. and Europe to emerging markets and are increasingly focused on greenfield projects, a new database from Rhodium Group shows, posing new challenges for governments eager to counter China's economic influence. Outflows have rebounded after the COVID-19 pandemic in the past two years. There was $103 billion worth of announced investment last year, but investment levels remain much lower than previous highs. Chinese companies are looking closer to home, with Asia becoming the largest recipient of Chinese outbound foreign direct investment since 2017, according to Rhodium Group, a New York-based independent economic analysis group. Last year, 72% of announced Chinese outbound investment transactions happened in countries that were not advanced economies as defined by the International Monetary Fund, with such developing economies as Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia logging at least $1 billion in investment from China in 2023 and 2024. Chinese capital has also been deployed more in other regions, such as Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. The combined share of North America and Europe dropped to less than half of total annual investment last year. Click here to read… [2]

U.S. and China discuss overcapacity, tariffs, investment restrictions

Senior American officials talked about Chinese industrial overcapacity, while China expressed concerns about U.S. tariffs and investment restrictions, at a two-day meeting in Beijing that ended Sept 20. The meeting was co-chaired by Chinese Vice Finance Minister Liao Min and the U.S. Treasury Department's Jay Shambaugh, undersecretary for international affairs. It was the fifth meeting of the two countries' Economic Working Group and followed up on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's April visit to China. "The meeting sessions concluded with the two sides sharing views on domestic macroeconomic outlooks and discussions on areas of cooperation, including debt issues and financing challenges in emerging and developing economies," the Treasury Department said in a readout of the just-ended meeting. While in Beijing, Shambaugh also met with Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss maintaining stability in bilateral economic relations. The vice premier said the two countries should strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination and manage each other's concerns on the basis of equality and mutual respect while promoting stable and healthy relations, according to China's official Xinhua News Agency. The Chinese side "expressed serious concerns" over the U.S. tariffs, Russia-related sanctions, investment restrictions, and actions that have "suppressed and affected the interests of Chinese companies," according to Xinhua. The Economic Working Group was set up by the U.S. and China in 2023 to enhance communication at a time of heightening competition between the world's two largest economies. Click here to read… [3]

China tightens military-civilian export controls ‘just in time’, experts say

China is stepping up export controls on items that can be used for both military and civilian purposes, in what observers called “a timely move” that safeguards the country’s national security against a set of external hostilities. No details were released of the regulation that was approved last week by the State Council to control exports of dual-use goods, but the Ministry of Commerce issued a draft of the rules for public feedback in April 2022. According to the draft regulation, the 2020 export control law needed to be refined and a unified rule set up to address “fragmented and imperfect” regulations on exports of nuclear technology, missiles, biotech and chemicals. Lu Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the State Council had passed the regulation “just in time” as sectors that previously were not considered dual-use had been shown to have military applications. These included new communication and remote-control technologies, as well as key raw materials, Lu said. He also pointed to last week’s pager and walkie-talkie explosions in Lebanon as examples of the weaponisation of civilian-use products. “This necessitates balancing normal trade with restrictions on dual-use exports, bringing forward the urgent need for more detailed and systematic management based on the national export control law.” Click here to read… [4]

China-Linked Hackers Breach U.S. Internet Providers in New ‘Salt Typhoon’ Cyberattack

Hackers linked to the Chinese government have broken into a handful of U.S. internet-service providers in recent months in pursuit of sensitive information, according to people familiar with the matter. The hacking campaign, called Salt Typhoon by investigators, hasn’t previously been publicly disclosed and is the latest in a series of incursions that U.S. investigators have linked to China in recent years. The intrusion is a sign of the stealthy success Beijing’s massive digital army of cyberspies has had breaking into valuable computer networks in the U.S. and around the globe. In Salt Typhoon, the actors linked to China burrowed into America’s broadband networks. In this type of intrusion, bad actors aim to establish a foothold within the infrastructure of cable and broadband providers that would allow them to access data stored by telecommunications companies or launch a damaging cyberattack. Investigators are exploring whether the intruders gained access to Cisco Systems routers, core network components that route much of the traffic on the internet, according to people familiar with the matter. A Cisco spokeswoman said the company is investigating the matter. “At this time, there is no indication that Cisco routers are involved” in the Salt Typhoon activity, the spokeswoman said. Microsoft is investigating the intrusion and what sensitive information may have been accessed, people familiar with the matter said. A spokesman for the company declined to comment. Click here to read… [5]

EU and China trade negotiators fail to strike deal on electric vehicle imports

The top trade officials from the European Union and China failed to reach a deal on ending a bitter dispute over electric vehicles during talks in Brussels on Sept 19. However, the sides committed to intensify talks towards finding a negotiated solution to the quarrel, including taking a “renewed look at price undertakings”. A European Commission readout described lengthy negotiations between EU trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao as “frank and constructive”. “Both sides reaffirmed their political will to pursue and intensify efforts in finding a mutually agreeable solution, which would need to be effective in addressing the problem, enforceable, monitorable, as well as WTO-compatible. The two sides agreed to take a renewed look at price undertakings,” the commission’s account read. This could mean a commitment from China to place a minimum price on electric vehicles exported to the EU to address the bloc’s concerns that the vehicles are undercutting local competition. The commission has previously rejected offers from individual companies to introduce such measures, which were not seen to go far enough. It has said the proposals would not have replicated the impact of tariffs, which is what it says a negotiated outcome must deliver. A previous deadline for price undertakings has been extended and late submissions will now be considered, according to EU sources. Click here to read… [6]

China looks to ease contentious ban on imports of Japanese seafood

China is set to ease its blanket ban on Japanese seafood imports, which has been in place for more than a year since the start of the release of treated radioactive water into the sea. Japan and China reached an agreement on Sept. 20 after Tokyo and the International Atomic Energy Agency decided the same day to allow China to join the monitoring of the treated water from the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida spoke with reporters after he held telephone talks with IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi. Kishida said, “We welcome this additional monitoring.” “China has begun adjusting its import restrictions and will steadily resume imports of Japanese seafood that meet safety standards,” the prime minister said. “Our country’s position that the restrictions should be promptly lifted has not changed, and we will continue working toward full removal of the restrictions.” During their talks, Kishida and Grossi agreed to conduct “additional monitoring,” which would allow countries to participate under the supervision of the IAEA. The monitoring will include seawater sampling by experts and data comparisons between different analysis institutions. China and other neighbouring countries are expected to take part. China has called the treated water “nuclear-contaminated water” and imposed the blanket ban on imports of Japanese seafood from Aug. 24, 2023, when Japan began releasing treated water from the Fukushima plant. Click here to read… [7]

China-Pakistan defense ties threatened by new U.S. sanctions

Fresh U.S. sanctions on Chinese ballistic missile suppliers are threatening to disrupt Pakistan's defense ties with Beijing, entangling Islamabad in the superpowers' tense rivalry, analysts said. Last week, the U.S. State Department imposed sanctions on the Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry for what it said was the company's moves to procure equipment for testing Pakistani rocket motors. The new penalties also targeted the three Chinese companies Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment, Xi'an Longde Technology Development and Universal Enterprise, Chinese citizen Luo Dongmei and Pakistan-based Innovative Equipment, for transferring equipment that is controlled under missile technology restrictions. Washington said the equipment was for Pakistan's Shaheen 3 and Ababeel ballistic missiles. The Shaheen 3 is a land-based medium-range missile with a range of 2,750 kilometers that can reach archrival India and deep into the Middle East. The Ababeel is a land-based tactical ballistic missile with a normal range of 1,800 kilometers. "This is part of the U.S. larger strategy of economic coercion aimed at containing the Chinese rise rather than aimed at Pakistan," Syed Muhammad Ali, an Islamabad-based security expert, told Nikkei Asia. There is little evidence that China is taking part in Pakistan's nuclear-capable ballistic missile program, Ali added. Click here to read… [8]

Average land prices across Japan rise for 3rd year in a row

Land prices across Japan rose 1.4 percent on average from the previous year, marking the third consecutive year of increases, according to a land ministry report released on Sept. 17. This figure reflects the average rate of change at various locations nationwide. The prices for commercial, residential and industrial land in regional areas outside the four cities of Sapporo, Sendai, Hiroshima and Fukuoka has increased for the first time in 32 years. Prices have continued to rise in both urban and regional areas. These increases indicate a clear recovery from sluggish land transactions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Housing demand remains strong, with significant increases in land prices, particularly in the centers of metropolitan areas. In the three metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka, residential land prices have risen for three consecutive years and commercial land prices for 12 years, with the extent of these increases also growing. The cities of Sapporo, Sendai, Hiroshima and Fukuoka have also seen a 12th consecutive year of price increases for both residential and commercial land. As a result of these price increases in urban areas, the overall average prices in regional areas outside the four cities shifted from stagnation to an increase by 0.2 percent. In popular resort areas, demand for vacation homes and relocation properties has increased. Click here to read… [9]

South Africa’s Commercial Hub May Face Water Curbs, News24 Says

South Africa’s Gauteng province, the nation’s commercial hub, may face water restrictions next year because the bulk supplier has been drawing down more resources than it’s allowed, News24 reported, citing a report by the Department of Water and Sanitation. Rand Water Services Ltd. currently extracts 5.2 billion litres of water daily, surpassing its licensed allowance of 4.38 billion litres, the Cape Town-based news website said. The department warned the company that if it continued to take more out water out of the the Integrated Vaal System than it’s allowed, curbs will need to be imposed, News24 said. The situation may be exacerbated by a six-month maintenance shutdown of the Lesotho Highlands Tunnel in October, which is expected to place further strain on water supplies to Gauteng and other provinces. Rand Water serves municipalities in Gauteng, including Johannesburg, the capital, Pretoria, and the industrial hub of Ekurhuleni, which are responsible for distributing water to residents. The municipalities are facing severe infrastructure challenges, losing as much as 46% of the water supplied by Rand Water because of leaks, theft, or inefficient systems, the news website said. Municipalities in Gauteng this week implemented Level 1 water restrictions until March 2025, Rand Water spokeswoman Makenosi Maroo told Newzroom Afrika on Sept. 16. Click here to read… [10]

EU to Seek Trade Pact with UAE as Talks with Gulf Region Stall

The European Union is considering working toward a trade deal with the United Arab Emirates as the 27-member bloc seeks to cooperate more with the Gulf states on issues including energy and security. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, considers bilateral deals with individual countries in the area more feasible after efforts to clinch a region-to-region accord with the Gulf Cooperation Council — which includes the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait — have stalled, according to people familiar with the plans. Leaders from the EU and the GCC will meet in Brussels on Oct. 16 to step up cooperation on issues affecting regional security and stability and to discuss challenges to the global economy. “It’s an important moment for the relationship between Europe and the Gulf countries,” the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said in Dubai this week. “We have been talking quite a long time about the trade relationship between the EU and the Gulf and this can be considered region-to-region or it can be considered through bilateral agreements.” Borrell added that due to the difficulties of reaching a broad agreement that includes all the GCC nations, the members may be interested in pursuing bilateral accords. Click here to read… [11]

Germany and Central Asia Explore Energy and Technology Cooperation

Central Asian leaders sent German Chancellor Olaf Scholz a clear and consistent message during his three-day visit to the region: ‘to get, you’ve got to give.’ The five Central Asian heads of state gathered in the Kazakh capital Astana on September 17 for a meeting with Scholz, with discussions focusing on expanding trade between the West and Central Asia. Germany is particularly interested in boosting natural gas imports from the region as part of a continuing pan-European Union effort to pivot away from Russian energy. No specific deals were announced at the meeting’s conclusion, but all sides were upbeat about the future, holding out the possibility that agreements can be reached in the not-too-distant future. “Exchanges between our societies have never been so close, and they are constantly growing,” the DPA news agency quoted Scholz as saying. The meeting’s host, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, reciprocated the goodwill, saying “the thorough exchange of views that took place reinforced the mutual interest of the leaders in further deepening cooperation.” He also emphasized that energy issues will play a “key role” in guiding relations. Tokayev’s remarks during the meeting offered a rough roadmap for future trade relations. He indicated Kazakhstan and other regional states would be more than happy to help Germany, along with other EU states, meet its energy needs. But Central Asia is looking for something more than just money in return for energy exports. Click here to read… [12]

Russia Boosts Insurance Coverage For India’s Oil Imports

Russian firms increased insurance cover for India’s oil imports to 60% of all cargoes in July, significantly higher than 40% in December 2023 as the two nations continue cementing their energy ties, Reuters reported on Sept 18. India has become the top buyer of Russian oil, with more than 60% of Russia's seaborne oil exports going to India. By using Russian insurers, Moscow is able to sell its oil above the $60 per barrel price cap the West imposed on Russian crude in a bid to limit Russia's oil revenue following its invasion of Ukraine. Western shipping and insurance services are only allowed for Russian cargoes sold at or below the price cap. Last month, India became the world's biggest importer of Russian oil surpassing China,. Data on Indian shipments from trade and industry showed that the country imported 2.07 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in July, good for a 4.2% M/M and 12% Y/Y increase. That exceeds China's July oil imports of 1.76 million bpd via pipelines and shipments, based on Chinese customs data. Indian refiners have been buying Russian crude at a discount to Brent ever since Western nations curtailed imports of Russian energy commodities following its invasion of Ukraine. India’s purchase of Russian ESPO Blend crude jumped in July to 188,000 bpd as larger Suezmax vessels were used. Click here to read… [13]

‘Strategic partnership’: US admits Qatar to visa waiver programme

Qatar has become the first Gulf country admitted into the US visa waiver programme, the United States has announced, in a move that will allow Qatari citizens to travel visa-free to the country for up to 90 days. In a joint statement on Sept 17, the US State Department and the Department of Homeland Security said Qatari citizens would be able to apply no later than December 1. “Qatar’s fulfillment of the stringent security requirements to join the Visa Waiver Program will deepen our strategic partnership and enhance the flow of people and commerce between our two countries,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. “Qatar’s entry will make travel between the United States and Qatar safer, more secure, and easier for both Americans and Qataris.” Qatar and the US have enjoyed close ties for years, and Washington formally designated Doha as a “major, non-NATO ally” in 2022 in a sign of the countries’ deepening military and economic partnership. Qatar also has played an important role alongside the US in trying to broker a ceasefire to end Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip, which is nearing the one-year mark. In Sept 17’s statement, the administration of US President Joe Biden said Qatar “has been an exceptional partner for the United States, and our strategic relationship has only grown stronger over the past few years”. Click here to read… [14]

Europe Has a Painful Choice: War vs. Welfare

When the Cold War ended, European governments slashed their military budgets and spent a windfall of several trillion dollars on social programs—a popular policy with voters when Europe faced few external threats and enjoyed the security protection of the U.S. Now, European nations are finding it difficult to give up those peacetime benefits, even as the war in Ukraine has revived Cold War-era tensions and the U.S. tries to shift its focus to China. Most are failing to get their armies in fighting shape. The lesson: It was easy to swap guns for butter; reversing the trend is far more challenging. That means—despite promises to raise military spending—defense ministers say they are struggling to get what they need. In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, military bases are crumbling or have been converted to civilian use, including sports centers, old people’s homes and pension fund offices. The army, which numbered half a million in West Germany and 300,000 in East Germany during the Cold War, has today just 180,000. It now has a few hundred operational tanks, compared with more than 2,000 Leopard 2 main battle tanks its West German predecessor had in the late 1980s. “That’s frustrating to me,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told journalists recently, after getting much less than he had requested for next year’s military spending. “It means there are certain things I can’t do at the pace that…the level of threat requires.” Click here to read… [15]

Is China looking to Mao Zedong’s ‘Third Front’ as part of economic self-reliance drive?

China is reviving aspects of a Mao Zedong-era plan to relocate critical facilities away from the country’s most densely populated areas to its western hinterlands. Mao’s 1964 “Third Front Construction” initiative was motivated by Cold War fears of nuclear attack, fuelled by the deepening American involvement in Vietnam and increased hostility between China and the Soviet Union. Some observers say the new plan – unofficially described as the “new third front”– may still have a military dimension, but the main focus this time around appears to be economic security in the face of multiple challenges such as US tech curbs and wider moves to end supply chain reliance on China. In a resolution passed during a key Communist Party policy meeting in July – the so-called third plenum – the leadership said it would “develop China’s strategic hinterland and ensure backup plans for key industries” as part of its ongoing self-sufficiency drive. “In many ways, I see this [latest scheme] as a continuation of the ‘Third Front’ and ‘Go West’ policies, including their goals of developing poor, geographically remote regions in the West as well as creating strategic buffers by relocating some key parts of the supply chain to western provinces,” said Christopher McNally, a professor of political economy at Chaminade University of Honolulu. Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

Killing of 10-year-old in Shenzhen rattles already shaky Japan-China ties

The stabbing death of a 10-year-old Japanese boy in Shenzhen at the hands of a Chinese stranger is straining an already tense bilateral relationship, although the assailant's motive is not known. Yoshiko Kijima, the Japanese consul general in Guangzhou, confirmed Sept 19 morning that the boy had died before sunrise, despite emergency treatment at a local hospital. She said the child had been stabbed in his abdomen the previous morning while walking to a Japanese school with his mother. According to a branch of the Shenzhen Security Bureau, the detained suspect is a 44-year-old man surnamed Zhong. The Chinese side has not released further details, while the head of Shenzhen's foreign affairs office "acknowledged" Japanese government demands to get to the bottom of the case and take viable action to prevent a repeat. But the tragedy was not the first of its kind: In June, a Chinese man in his 50s injured a student and mother waiting for a bus to a Japanese school in the eastern industrial city of Suzhou, killing a Chinese woman who tried to stop him. Some Japanese observers argue these are not isolated incidents but rather a result of authorities fanning anti-Japan sentiment for decades. "It is significant that the Chinese authorities have continued the education to instil hatred against Japan and the Japanese people among its people." Click here to read… [17]

Pakistan, China eye security tie-ups after deadly militant attacks

Beijing and Islamabad are close to a deal on setting up joint security companies to protect Chinese nationals working in Pakistan, after a string of deadly militant attacks threatened their multibillion-dollar investment ties. Multiple sources have told Nikkei Asia that the mooted deal would see Chinese security personnel working inside Pakistan, which Islamabad has previously resisted despite mounting pressure from Beijing. The agreement could also lead to Chinese nationals being ferried around in armored vehicles. Pakistan's top investor China has grown increasingly wary about future deals after its citizens were targeted in a series of deadly attacks in recent years. Thousands of Chinese nationals are thought to be working on projects in the South Asian nation. Pakistan is grappling with a rise in militant activity ranging from Islamists aiming to topple the government to separatists seeking to carve out a homeland in southwestern Balochistan, which is home to the port of Gwadar, the centerpiece of the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Beijing has pressed Pakistan to take more action to protect its citizens and pushed for armor-protected vehicles during recent negotiations on the second phase of CPEC, a key component of China's globe-spanning Belt and Road Initiative. "Under the proposed joint security companies' framework, Pakistani personnel will be in the outer cordon, and Chinese personnel will be in the inner cordon for protection of Chinese nationals," a source privy to the negotiations told Nikkei on condition of anonymity. Click here to read… [18]

Quad expands maritime security cooperation at farewell summit

Leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the United States expanded joint security steps in Asia's trade-rich waters as outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden hosted counterparts from the Quad grouping established due to shared concerns about China. Biden, meeting Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese near his Delaware hometown on Sept 21, stressed the importance of maintaining the Quad, which he sees as a signature foreign policy achievement. He will leave office after the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election. The leaders announced joint coast guard operations next year that will include Australian, Japanese and Indian personnel spending time on a U.S. coast guard vessel. The countries plan increased military logistics cooperation, officials said. They did not comment on where the coast guard activity would take place. The leaders also planned to expand an Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness launched two years ago. While the White House said the Quad summit was directed at no other country and that Beijing should find no issue with the initiative, Biden started the summit's group session with a briefing on China. In a joint statement that did not name the Chinese government by name, the leaders condemned "coercive and intimidating maneuvers in the South China Sea." Click here to read… [19]

Israel’s Netanyahu announces expanded war goals to include Lebanon border

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said his goals for the war in Gaza have expanded to include enabling Israelis who have fled areas near the Lebanese border to return to their homes. There has been almost daily cross-border fire between Israeli forces and the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah since Israel began its war on Gaza nearly a year ago. The exchanges have forced tens of thousands of people on both sides from their homes and threatened to ignite a wider regional conflict. The decision to include “the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes” was approved during an overnight meeting of Netanyahu’s security cabinet, his office said in a statement on Sept 17. The decision comes a day after Israel’s Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told a visiting United States envoy that “military action” was the “only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities”. Hezbollah officials have said the group would stand down if a ceasefire was reached in Gaza, but Gallant warned that time was “running out”. Months of negotiations and shuttle diplomacy have failed to secure a truce to end fighting that began on October 7 after Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel killing at least 1,139 people and taking more than 200 captive. Click here to read… [20]

U.S. keeps missile system in Philippines as China tensions rise, tests wartime deployment

The United States has no immediate plans to withdraw a mid-range missile system deployed in the Philippines, despite Chinese demands, and is testing the feasibility of its use in a regional conflict, sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The Typhon system, which can be equipped with cruise missiles capable of striking Chinese targets, was brought in for joint exercises earlier this year, both countries said at the time, but has remained there. The Southeast Asian archipelago, Taiwan's neighbor to the South, is an important part of U.S. strategy in Asia and would be an indispensable staging point for the military to aid Taipei in the event of a Chinese attack. China and Russia condemned the move – the first deployment of the system to the Indo-Pacific – and accused Washington of fueling an arms race. The deployment, some details of which have not been previously reported, comes as China and U.S. defence treaty ally the Philippines clash over parts of the hotly contested South China Sea. Recent months have brought a series of sea and air confrontations in the strategic waterway. Philippine officials said Filipino and U.S forces continued to train with the missile system, which is in northern Luzon, which faces the South China Sea and is close to the Taiwan Strait, and they were not aware of immediate plans to return it, even though the joint exercises end this month. Click here to read… [21]

With launch into Pacific Ocean, China tests ICBM that could reach the US mainland

The People’s Liberation Army launched its first known intercontinental ballistic missile test in 44 years on Sept 25 morning, sending an ICBM into the Pacific Ocean, according to the Chinese defence ministry. China’s latest known ICBM is the DF-41, which first came into service in 2017 and has an operational range of up to 12,000-15,000km (7,460-9,320 miles), capable of reaching the US mainland. An ICBM typically has a range greater than 5,500km (3,420 miles) and is designed to carry nuclear warheads. The defence ministry said the PLA’s Rocket Force successfully launched an ICBM carrying a simulated warhead that “accurately landed in the predetermined sea area” in the high seas. “This missile launch is a routine arrangement of the rocket force’s annual military training. It effectively tests the performance of weapons and equipment and the level of troop training,” the ministry said. “[It] achieved the expected purpose. China notified relevant countries in advance.” It is the first time in 44 years that China is known to have successfully conducted an atmospheric test of an ICBM over the high seas. In May 1980, a DF-5 – China’s first ICBM – flew more than 9,000km (5,590 miles) from the Jiuquan satellite launch centre in the northwestern province of Gansu, reaching its designated target area in the South Pacific in half an hour. Click here to read… [22]

Marxist Dissanayake wins Sri Lanka's presidential election as voters reject old guard

Marxist lawmaker Anura Kumara Dissanayake won Sri Lanka’s presidential election, the Election Commission announced Sept 22, after voters rejected the old political guard that has been widely accused of pushing the South Asian nation into economic ruin. Dissanayake, whose pro-working class and anti-political elite campaigning made him popular among youth, secured victory over opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and incumbent liberal President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took over the country two years ago after its economy hit bottom. Dissanayake received 5,740,179 votes, followed by Premadasa with 4,530,902, Election Commission data showed. The election held Sept 22 was crucial as the country seeks to recover from the worst economic crisis in its history and the resulting political upheaval. “This achievement is not the result of any single person’s work, but the collective effort of hundreds of thousands of you. Your commitment has brought us this far, and for that, I am deeply grateful. This victory belongs to all of us,” Dissanayake said in a post on X. Outgoing President Wickremesinghe in a video statement congratulated Dissanayake and said he hoped he will carry forward the economic recovery efforts successfully. The election was a virtual referendum on Wickremesinghe’s leadership, including restructuring Sri Lanka’s debt under an International Monetary Fund bailout after it defaulted in 2022. Click here to read… [23]

US Seeks New Deal with Iraq After Baghdad Says Troops Not Needed

The US is seeking a new deal with Iraq that could keep American troops stationed in the country, after Baghdad said they are no longer needed as their original mission to defeat ISIS is complete. Washington is in discussions with the government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani for a broader bilateral relationship, which it aims to announce as soon as next week, two senior officials said Sept 20, speaking on the condition they are not named as the talks are ongoing. The new agreement would replace the US-led international coalition in place since 2014. A continued US presence is needed to counter the regional threat from Iran, the officials said, as well as to continue fighting the Islamist group in Iraq and Syria. The continued presence of troops from the US and other countries has become unpopular in Iraq, creating a political liability for Al-Sudani, who on Sept 15 said he hopes to soon announce a timetable for the withdrawal. “The justifications are no longer there,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “There is no need for a coalition. We have moved on from wars to stability. ISIS is not really representing a challenge.” The US, meanwhile, is uneasy with a total exit of its roughly 2,500 military personnel, fearing it would allow Iran to increase its influence within the country or for ISIS to regroup. Click here to read… [24]

Russia’s Shoigu Arrives in Iran Days After North Korea Visit

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu arrived in Iran on an unannounced visit just days after he held talks in Pyongyang with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Shoigu gave Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian a message from Russian leader Vladimir Putin during a meeting in Tehran, Russian state television reported Sept 17. He also met with his counterpart Ali Akbar Ahmadian. The former Russian defense minister and North Korea’s leader discussed a range of bilateral and international topics during a Sept. 13 meeting, according to the Russian Security Council. Shoigu also met Sept. 16 with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, the state-run Tass news service reported. Click here to read… [25]

Iran ready to resume nuclear negotiations immediately: Foreign minister

Iran is ready to start a new round of nuclear negotiations, the country’s foreign minister has said. In a social media post, FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is ready to open talks on Iran’s nuclear programme this week, should others prove willing. However, the recently appointed moderate acknowledged that heightened regional tensions make reviving the process a challenge. “If the other parties are ready, we can restart the negotiations during this trip,” Araghchi said. Iran’s top diplomat is due in New York this week to attend the United Nations General Assembly, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expected to deliver a speech on Sept 24. “I will stay in New York for more days after the return of the president and I will have more meetings with foreign ministers of different countries,” Araghchi said in a statement quoted by state-run IRNA news agency on Sept 23. In July this year, the relatively moderate Pezeshkian won the presidential election. He has vowed to restart talks with Western powers in order to lift sanctions in search of easing economic pressure on Iran. Tehran and world powers signed in 2015 a landmark nuclear deal – the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – designed to curb Iranian nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Three years later, then-US President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled out of the accord, imposing fresh sanctions. Click here to read… [26]

US moving extra troops to Alaska — Politico

The US is reinforcing its military presence in Alaska due to increased Russian and Chinese activity off the coast, Politico reported on Sept 20. The outlet noted that over the past month, the US has redeployed numerous assets – including the destroyer, USS Sterett. In addition, ground forces are now stationed on one of the state’s remote islands, and that fighters and other aircraft have been put on heightened alert. Business Insider reported last week that the deployment included elements of the 11th Airborne Division supported by HIMARS missile systems and counter fire radars to keep an eye on Sino-Russian naval exercises. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) sounded the alarm over an uptick in Russian and Chinese military activities. “The number of assets have gone way up. It’s air, surface and subsurface that the Russians are employing, but they’re doing it much more in a joint capacity with China than they’ve ever done. They’re clearly escalatory,” he said. Meanwhile, Senate Armed Services Committee chairman Jack Reed (D-Rhode Island) suggested that Russia’s military activities come as a response to Washington’s support for Kiev in its conflict with Moscow. “I think they’re probably also trying to send a message to their own country,” he said. Click here to read… [27]

Putin orders increase in size of Russian military

President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree that officially increases the number of personnel in Russia’s armed forces to almost 2.4 million people, including 1.5 million servicemen. The latest increase comes after a similar decree in December 2023, when the president boosted the number of employees in the Russian military to just over 2.2 million, including 1.3 million troops. In his order on Sept 16, Putin also instructed the Russian government to allocate the necessary funds for the Defense Ministry to carry out the increase, which formally takes the number of personnel in the armed forces to 2,389,130. The last time the president expanded the number of Russian troops, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained that the move was the result of the “proxy war” being waged against Moscow by the West. “The security of our country must be, of course, ensured,” Peskov stated at the time. “This is connected with the war that the countries of the collective West are waging. A proxy war, which includes elements of indirect participation in military actions and elements of economic warfare, financial warfare, legal warfare, going beyond the legal framework, and so on.” Russia’s Defense Ministry also stated at the time that the expansion of the army would be done through citizens who voluntarily wish to serve under contract. It also explained that the decision to increase personnel numbers was due to the threat posed by NATO’s continued expansion. Click here to read… [28]

US sent ‘unserviceable’ and expired military equipment to Taiwan in water-damaged pallets

Mouldy armour and expired ammunition were among “unserviceable” US military equipment delivered to Taiwan recently, and the island’s defence ministry says it is looking into the issue. The items in question were delivered between November and March under the US Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). The shipments included 120 water-damaged pallets containing more than 3,000 body armour plates and 500 tactical vests that were “soaking wet and covered in mould”, according to the US Office of Inspector General (OIG), which launched an investigation after the matter was flagged by the Taiwanese defence ministry. Additionally, some of the 2.7 million rounds of poorly packaged ammunition were manufactured in 1983 and had expired, the US Department of Defence oversight agency said. They were also “in a mix of original, substitute, and loose packaging”, making it difficult for the Taiwanese military to “accurately manage or inventory” the ammunition. Further, six M240B machine guns were discovered haphazardly thrown into a large cardboard box “without any wrapping or cushioning”. The OIG disclosed its findings last week in a report addressing the Pentagon’s mismanagement in delivering PDA military items to Taiwan. The PDA allows Washington to provide weapons and equipment from existing stocks free of charge to help its partners in crises. In July last year, the Biden administration approved up to US$345 million in defence articles and services for Taiwan under the drawdown. Click here to read… [29]

Siege in Darfur Spirals Into a Brutal Battle for Control

It’s been called one the world’s ugliest wars. Now the conflict in Sudan is entering a desperate new phase. The paramilitary-turned-rebel Rapid Support Forces have laid siege to El Fasher, the largest city in the western Darfur region, for nearly five months, part of a raw struggle for power with Sudan’s military. Global health authorities have declared famine in one of the camps for the displaced on El Fasher’s outskirts. Some of the city’s roughly two million residents have resorted to eating animal feed, after both the RSF and the military for months blocked the flow of aid. Over the past 10 days, the RSF has launched an all-out assault on El Fasher, firing hundreds of artillery and mortar shells into densely populated areas. The Sudanese military, which has forged an alliance in El Fasher with two local armed groups, has responded with airstrikes targeting areas occupied by the RSF. There have also been drone attacks and ferocious street battles as the RSF makes ever deeper forays into the city. If El Fasher falls, residents, regional experts and the Biden administration worry that the RSF, which grew from the notorious Janjaweed fighters who terrorized Darfur in the early 2000s, could embark on a fresh round of mass atrocities, going after members of the Black Zaghawa and Fur communities it already targeted two decades ago. Click here to read… [30]

Swing-State Court Fights Flare Over Voting Rules Before Election

Judges are racing to resolve fights — many in swing states — over how Americans will cast ballots and tally results in the Nov. 5 presidential election as absentee and early voting is poised to start. Nevada and Pennsylvania appeals courts are fast-tracking lawsuits over the fate of mailed ballots that contain errors or defects. A federal appeals court will hear arguments next week on whether Mississippi can count absentee ballots that arrive after election day. A trial is set for next month on vote certification rules in Georgia that Democrats warn could cause “chaos.” Judges are also setting speedy schedules as new fights continue to hit the docket. Republican and Democratic national party organizations have filed lawsuits in recent weeks over registration, voting and ballot tally certification processes in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina. While the US Supreme Court has cautioned against last-minute intervention in elections by federal judges to avoid voter confusion, there is no firm cutoff date for challenges. And that guidance isn’t directed at state courts, where much of this year’s pre-election action is playing out. In Pennsylvania, voting-rights lawyers are exploring ways to revive a fight over a state law that disqualifies absentee ballots because of problems with the date voters write on the envelope. A lower court blocked the law in August. In a 4-3 order on Sept. 13, the high court dismissed the case on a procedural issue because it didn’t name all 67 county boards of elections. Click here to read… [31]

UN aims ‘to bring multilateralism back’ as it adopts Pact for the Future

The United Nations General Assembly has adopted a “Pact for the Future”, which UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described as a landmark agreement that is a “step-change towards more effective, inclusive, networked multilateralism”. The pact, which also includes an annex on working towards a responsible and sustainable digital future, was adopted without a vote on Sept 22 at the start of a two-day Summit of the Future. The agreement came after some nine months of negotiations. “We are here to bring multilateralism back from the brink,” Guterres told the summit. As an opener for the annual high-level week of the UN General Assembly, which begins on Sept 24, dozens of heads of state and government had gathered for the adoption of the pact. Leaders pledged to bolster the multilateral system to “keep pace with a changing world” and to “protect the needs and interests of current and future generations” facing “persistent crisis”. “We believe there is a path to a brighter future for all of humanity,” the document of the pact said. The UN chief has long pushed for the pact, which covers themes including peace and security, global governance, sustainable development, climate change, digital cooperation, human rights, gender, youth and future generations. It lays out some 56 broad actions that countries pledged to achieve. The adoption of the pact, however, faced a brief delay when Russia’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, Sergey Vershinin, introduced an amendment, emphasising the “principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of states”. Click here to read… [32]

Health

Taliban suspends polio vaccines in Afghanistan, U.N. says

The Taliban have suspended polio vaccination campaigns in Afghanistan, the U.N. said Sept 16. Afghanistan is one of two countries in which the spread of the potentially fatal, paralyzing disease has never been stopped. The other is Pakistan. News of the suspension was relayed to U.N. agencies right before the September immunization campaign was due to start. No reason was given for the suspension, and no one from the Taliban-controlled government was immediately available for comment. Anti-polio campaigns in neighboring Pakistan are regularly marred by violence. Militants target vaccination teams and police assigned to protect them, falsely claiming that the campaigns are a Western conspiracy to sterilize children. Click here to read… [33]