Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (19-25 August)

Economic

EU slashes planned tariff on Tesla's China-made EVs to 9%

The European Commission on Aug 20 cut its proposed tariff on imports of Tesla cars built in China, as it broadly maintained other planned punitive duties it set in July on Chinese-made electric vehicles. In the highest profile European Union probe of alleged Chinese subsidies, the Commission issued draft definitive findings of its anti-subsidy investigation, which has provoked threats of retaliation from Beijing. It set a new reduced tariff rate of 9% for Tesla, lower than the 20.8% it had indicated in July. Tesla had requested a recalculation of its rate to be based on the specific subsidies the company had received, according to the Commission. An executive from the EU said on Aug 20 it still believed Chinese EV production had benefited from extensive subsidies and proposed final duties of up to 36.3%. That is slightly lower than the maximum provisional duty of 37.6% the Commission had set in July for companies that did not cooperate with the EU's anti-subsidy investigation. Tesla was among the companies classed as cooperating with the EU investigation. The Commission said it conducted an investigation, including sending a team to Tesla facilities in China, to verify what subsidies the company had received. A Commission official said Brussels had concluded that Tesla receives less subsidies from China, compared to the Chinese EV producers Brussels had investigated. Click here to read… [2]

Taiwan defense spend to outpace GDP growth as China threat rises

Taiwan’s defense spending will rise 7.7% next year, outpacing expected economic growth, the cabinet said on Aug 22, as the island adds more fighter jets and missiles to strengthen deterrence against a rising threat from Beijing. China, which views democratically-governed Taiwan as its own territory, has ramped up military and political pressure over the past five years to assert those claims, which Taipei strongly rejects. Taiwan’s cabinet said following a regular weekly meeting that 2025 defense spending would rise 7.7% year-on-year to T$647 billion ($20.25 billion), accounting for 2.45% of gross domestic product and exceeding the government’s expectation for economic growth of 3.26% for the year. The spending includes a special budget worth T$90.4 billion to buy new fighter jets and ramp up missile production. That was part of the military’s extra spending worth T$240 billion announced in 2021 over five years. Taiwan’s government has made military modernization a key policy platform and has repeatedly pledged to spend more on its defenses given the rising threat from China, including developing made-in-Taiwan submarines. China’s air force flies almost daily missions into the skies near Taiwan, and in May staged war games around the island shortly after President Lai Ching-te took office, a man Beijing brands a "separatist". Lai rejects China’s sovereignty claims, saying only Taiwan’s people can decide their future. Click here to read… [3]

Japan records trade deficit as surging global prices pushes imports higher

Japan racked up a 621-billion-yen ($4.3 billion) trade deficit in July, as prices of imports surged, according to government data released Aug 21. Japan’s imports grew nearly 17% from a year ago to 10.2 trillion yen ($70.6 billion), while exports grew 10% to 9.6 trillion yen ($66 billion), the Finance Ministry said. Imports grew in meat and other food, as well as iron, underlining a relatively healthy domestic economy, where consumer spending improved amid rising wages. Exports grew to the U.S., China and Brazil, but auto exports continued to suffer amid a scandal involving falsified testing that stalled production at some manufacturers, including Japan’s top automaker Toyota Motor Corp. Earlier, auto production was hit from parts shortages caused by production disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic. Japan’s exports in July grew from a year ago in plastic, paper products and computer parts. “Exports slightly missed the market consensus, but showed a robust acceleration, suggesting the economy is in recovery,” said Robert Carnell, regional head of Research Asia-Pacific at ING Economics. “It is also encouraging to note that exports grew across all major categories. Technology exports were particularly strong.” Click here to read… [4]

Turkey Makes Rapid Inroads into Africa’s Oil and Gold Sectors

Two decades ago, China pioneered the so-called “Angola model” wherein it provided oil-backed loans from China to Angola and other African cuntries to finance the building of roads, hydroelectric dams, railways, and other infrastructural projects. Between 2000 and 2022, Angola borrowed $45 billion from China, repaying some of it in oil. Unfortunately, that model did not last very long, with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noting that Angola has slipped to the 8th largest crude supplier to China, down from second in 2010. Aging oilfields, years of underinvestment, poor infrastructure and geopolitical instability have been the bane of larger producers including Angola and Nigeria, but also smaller producers such as South Sudan. China has moved on and is pivoting heavily to countries with more reliable infrastructure including Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. And now other countries are looking to step in and fill the gaping hole left by China and the West’s waning influence over the “final frontier”. Russia’s growing footprint on the continent has become evident over the past couple of years as many African governments have increasingly welcomed economic, diplomatic, and security ties with Russia at a time when the West considers it an international pariah following its war in Ukraine. Click here to read… [5]

Philippines agrees to host a U.S. visa processing center for Afghans resettling in America

The Philippines has agreed to a request by the United States to temporarily host a U.S. immigrant visa processing center for a limited number of Afghan nationals aspiring to resettle in America, the treaty allies announced Aug 20. The Philippine government’s approval of the request, which initially faced local concerns over potential security and legal issues, reflects how relations between Manila and Washington have deepened under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who took office in 2022. The Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila said the agreement was undergoing final domestic procedures before it takes effect. It did not provide other details, including how many Afghans would be allowed to temporarily stay in the Philippines at any time while their special immigrant visas for resettlement to the U.S. are being completed. “The U.S. government is supporting necessary services for those Afghans temporarily in the Philippines, including food, housing, security, medical and transportation to complete visa processing,” the Philippine foreign affairs department said in a statement. The U.S. thanked the Philippines in a statement by the State Department “for supporting Afghan allies of the United States” and added that it “appreciates its long and positive history of bilateral cooperation with the Philippines.” Click here to read… [6]

Pakistan delays China-funded airport opening over security fears

Pakistan has postponed the opening of a nearly $250 million airport over security fears, dealing another blow to efforts to boost Chinese investment in its crisis-hit economy. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was due to attend the inauguration of New Gwadar International Airport (NGIA), close to a port at the center of the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). But the planned opening on Aug. 14 -- Pakistan's Independence Day -- was suddenly halted over what local officials said were security concerns after mass protests brought southwestern Gwadar to a near standstill this month. No new opening date has been announced for the $246 million China-funded project, which got off the ground following a grant deal with Beijing in 2015. "All the required work and prerequisite arrangements on [the New Gwadar] airport have been completed and it's ready for flight operations," a government official familiar with the situation told Nikkei on condition of anonymity. The delayed opening -- after an initial postponement last year -- comes amid concerns that lower-than-expected demand for flights into the region, beset by deadly militant attacks and a separatist insurgency, would quickly turn it into a white elephant. Click here to read… [7]

Myanmar's growing price controls deepen economic woes

Myanmar's military regime is introducing tougher price controls for daily necessities in a bid to curb rampant inflation, yet its heavy state involvement reminiscent of socialism is driving down the currency further and exacerbating credit concerns. At a July meeting with key officials, military regime leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said cooperatives were the best economic system for Myanmar. "We will spare no expense or other assistance" for their creation, he said. But the government's moves to suppress prices and set purchase quotes -- measures that ignore market principles -- are interfering with the private sector. In late June, Myanmar authorities stepped up their enforcement of rice pricing rules. A Japanese worker at a local unit of retailer Aeon was recently found guilty of violating the price cap and was sentenced to a year in prison before suddenly being released. Retailers in Myanmar must keep rice prices within a certain range of the reference set by the Myanmar Rice Federation. The body, described by a local journalist as being "under the control of the military regime," has begun retailing and delivering rice to customers directly. Palm oil is also essentially rationed in Myanmar, with authorities controlling both the price and volume of sales. The Myanmar Edible Oil Dealers' Association began deliveries at the end of July, selling roughly 3.2 kg per month to each household at pre-set prices. Click here to read… [8]

US threatens to sanction countries that host Russian banks

Nations which maintain economic ties with Russia risk secondary sanctions if they allow Russian banks to open local branches to facilitate bilateral trade, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) stated on Aug 23. The measures are aimed at closing workarounds that Moscow is said to be using to circumvent the existing sanctions. The Treasury Department has claimed that the Russian authorities are utilizing vague schemes to pay for dual-use goods that are allegedly imported from the third states. “Treasury is aware of Russian efforts to facilitate sanctions evasion by opening new overseas branches and subsidiaries of Russian financial institutions,” the statement reads. The department urged foreign regulators and financial institutions to be “cautious about any dealings with overseas branches or subsidiaries” of Russian banks, including efforts to set up new branches or subsidiaries, having warned that it has a range of tools to target “the establishment of new evasion channels.” The measure is aimed at Russian banks that are not sanctioned yet. Washington has introduced several rounds of sanctions which target the interaction of foreign banks with Russian companies and financial organizations since the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict in February 2022. Last December, US President Joe Biden ordered the introduction of so-called secondary sanctions against financial institutions that allegedly support Russia’s defense sector. Click here to read… [9]

The World’s Biggest Gas Reservoir Is At A Tipping Point

Iran is embarking on a US$70 billion investment programme of measures to attempt to halt a dramatic decline in output from its crucial South Pars gas field. A failure to do so will result in the loss of 40 percent of the country’s petrol output from the Persian Gulf Star gas condensate refinery, and the addition of up to US$12 billion a year of petrochemical costs, according to Iranian Gas Institute forecasts. “South Pars’ gas output provides nearly 80 percent of the our [Iran’s] total gas production, so it is vital to all segments of business and society that this does not drop significantly,” a senior energy industry source who works closely with Islamic Republic’s Petroleum Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. In broad terms, the South Pars site spans 3,700 square kilometres and holds an estimated 14.2 trillion cubic metres (tcm) of gas reserves plus 18 billion barrels of gas condensate. In addition to generating 78 percent of the country’s gas production, it also accounts for around 40 percent of Iran’s total estimated 33.8 tcm of gas reserves (mostly located in the southern Fars, Bushehr, and Hormozgan regions). Crucially in the current context as well is that it is one part of the two that constitute the world’s biggest gas reservoir by far, with 51 tcm of reserves. Click here to read… [10]

Switzerland Is Getting Squeezed Between China and the US

Back in 2013, several dozen Swiss business representatives traveled to Beijing to attend the signing of a free-trade agreement between Switzerland and China, toasting the success with champagne. Implemented the following year, the FTA was hailed in a PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP report at the time as a landmark accord that “recasts the international trade landscape” and might even contribute to “a re-industrialization of Switzerland.” Ten years on, the deal is due for an update, but the euphoria has gone, a reflection of the changed geopolitical environment defined by US-China competition. Some now question whether the talks will even yield a result. Concern over the trade agreement’s fate is one sign of how Switzerland is being squeezed between rival global powers, casting a pall over its traditional exceptionalism in spheres from neutrality to its solo economic efforts. With the US moving to hinder China’s access to advanced technology and the European Union aligning more closely with Washington, Swiss companies in particular risk getting caught in the middle. Zurich-based industrial giant ABB Ltd. faced US scrutiny earlier this year over what a Congress committee cited as potential “cybersecurity risks, foreign intelligence threats, and supply chain vulnerabilities” related to its involvement with Chinese state-owned enterprises in supplying cranes for US seaports. Click here to read… [11]

Lula Is Running Huge Budget Deficits and Scaring Off Investors

It’s been almost two years now since Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva secured his return to power in Brazil. For investors, they’ve been bleak. The currency is down, government bond yields are up and the stock market has only eked out half the gains posted across the rest of emerging markets. All this stands in stark contrast to Lula’s first presidential stint two decades ago. Back then, he became the unlikeliest of Wall Street darlings — a radical union leader who shocked pundits by quickly embracing fiscal austerity — and oversaw a furious rally in the country’s markets. The main stock index posted average annual gains —in dollars — of 38% during his eight years in office. The global backdrop was very different then. Prices for raw materials that Brazil produced were soaring, pulling an ever-growing stream of dollars into the nation, and global interest rates were at rock-bottom levels, pushing investors to seek out risky assets that could generate higher returns in places like Brazil. Now, commodity prices are flat at best, and interest rates are at the highest in generations in the US and elsewhere. The president doesn’t seem to have caught on to — or care much about — this new reality. Click here to read… [12]

Nord Stream Revelations Ignite Dispute Between U.S. Allies

The disclosures that a team of Ukrainians blew up the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines while using Poland as a logistical base have sparked a dispute between Berlin and Warsaw, two U.S. allies backing Ukraine in the war. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk lashed out at Germany on Aug 17 after a nearly two-year German investigation found that a team of Ukrainians sabotaged the world’s largest offshore pipeline system in September 2022. The operation involved a small, rented yacht and a six-member team, The Wall Street Journal reported last week. Authorities in Poland didn’t act on an arrest warrant that the German officials had issued in June, seeking one of the suspected crew members. The suspect, who German authorities haven’t publicly identified, subsequently fled to his homeland of Ukraine, prompting an outcry from some in Germany. In an Aug 17 post on X, Tusk took aim at the “initiators and patrons” of Nord Stream 1 and 2, the twin pipelines that ran in parallel on the Baltic seabed, carrying Russian gas to Western Europe. “The only thing you should do today about it is apologize and keep quiet,” he said. Late last week, Polish prosecutors sent an official letter to their German counterparts to inform them that the suspect had left the country, according to people familiar with the matter. Click here to read… [13]

China and Russia drive global nuclear power capacity to record high

Global nuclear power generating capacity has reached an all-time high, with China and Russia accounting for most of the world's new reactors. There were 436 operational nuclear reactors worldwide as of June, according to the nonprofit Japan Atomic Industrial Forum and other data sources. Combined capacity was roughly 416 gigawatts, surpassing the previous record of 414 GW logged in 2018. One new reactor went online in China, the U.S., South Korea and India this year through June, with a combined capacity of 4.53 GW. Just a single 1-GW reactor, located in Russia, was decommissioned during that span. China has made rapid gains both in terms of sheer capacity and technology. China and Russia are home to about 60% of the roughly 70 reactors built over the past decade. In that time, China built 39 reactors, roughly quadrupling power capacity. China's 56th reactor went into operation in May at the Fangchenggang nuclear power station in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The country is tied with France in terms of nuclear reactors in operation, ranking second worldwide, after the U.S. Nuclear power is part of efforts to cut carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution in China, which relies on fossil fuel-burning plants for about 70% of its electricity. Russia has caught up with Japan in the nuclear reactor count. Click here to read… [14]

Future murky for Russia-China pipeline as Mongolia omits project from long-term plan

Mongolia has not included the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline connecting Russia and China in its action programme through 2028, a decision interpreted by many as a shelving of the controversial project that could have provided Moscow with a financial lifeline as it grapples with sanctions and the ongoing war in Ukraine. The landlocked country would cover much of the proposed route for the 2,594km pipeline, necessitating its involvement in construction and transmission fee negotiations. The programme was announced Aug 16 by Mongolia’s “national unity” coalition government, whose three parties hold 118 out of 126 seats in the State Great Khural – the country’s parliament – following elections in June. Analysts attributed the hiatus to pricing disagreements between Beijing and Moscow as well as geopolitical factors, with concerns over secondary sanctions from Western countries levied against those seen as aiding Russia’s military in Ukraine. “We are entering a long pause, where Moscow no longer believes it can get the deal it wishes from Beijing and will probably park the project until better times,” said Munkhnaran Bayarlkhagva, a former official at the National Security Council of Mongolia. Bayarlkhagva said that Beijing may not be happy with Gazprom – Russia’s state energy giant – over a perception the company wishes to “unilaterally” control the Mongolian section of the pipeline. Click here to read… [15]

China Says ‘Please Stop Buying Our Bonds’

China is experiencing a bull market, but Beijing doesn’t seem to like it. While stock and housing markets languish in China, one asset has stood out—Chinese government bonds. Yields on 10-year government bonds have dropped to around 2.18% from around 2.6% a year earlier. In most countries—especially those experiencing an alarming slowdown like China—that would be welcome. Yet the authorities have gone to extraordinary lengths to try to stem the rally in the bonds they issue. It is starting to work. China’s government-bond yields have indeed picked up in the past week or so as state-backed banks appear to have turned into heavy sellers. Also helping to reverse the rally, China’s central bank said last month that it signed agreements with brokers to borrow “hundreds of billions” of yuan in government bonds. (100 billion yuan is equivalent to $14 billion). Regulators have also stepped-up scrutiny on banks that have been active in the bond market. While it is common for central banks around the globe to meddle in their bond markets, it is rarer for them to intervene to push yields up. China’s central bank just cut its short-term rates last month. Beijing’s heavy-handed efforts to push bond yields in the opposite direction are another worrying sign about its economy. Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

Russia and Ukraine Can’t Mount Major Offensives Against Each Other, US Says

Ukraine and Russia both lack the military assets to mount major offensives against each other, the Pentagon’s intelligence agency said in new assessments that suggests the two sides are headed toward stalemate. The Defense Intelligence Agency assessments conclude that Ukraine still doesn’t have the munitions to match Russia’s ability to fire some 10,000 artillery rounds a day, even after the US Congress unlocked fresh military aid in April. Ukrainian forces remain capable of defensive operations but won’t be able to launch large-scale counteroffensives for at least six months. Russia, on the other hand, has adopted a strategy of exhausting Ukraine and will be able to maintain a buffer zone its troops captured — but doesn’t have enough strength “to threaten a deeper advance into Ukrainian-held territory, such as Kharkiv city,” said DIA in one observation. The Defense Intelligence Agency’s conclusions are included in the latest quarterly report on US assistance to Ukraine issued by the Pentagon’s inspector general, Robert Storch. They echo public statements by senior US officials including Mark Milley, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that the conflict was about to become deadlocked. The inspector general report covers the three-month period ending June 30, after Congress passed the latest $61 billion assistance package for Ukraine. Click here to read… [17]

In Beijing’s Quest for Control of the South China Sea, a New Flashpoint Emerges

For months, the Philippines has pushed back against Beijing in the South China Sea. China has responded with increasing hostility, directing its ire against Philippine vessels and crew. Now, a 97-meter coast-guard ship has become a new symbol of the David-and-Goliath fight between America’s top geopolitical rival and an ally it has pledged to defend in the event of an armed attack. Tensions around the vessel this week have shown China’s willingness to escalate its use of forceful tactics to tighten its control of the South China Sea. Since mid-April, the Philippines’ BRP Teresa Magbanua has stood anchored at a stretch of low-lying reefs called Sabina Shoal, 75 nautical miles off the Philippines’ western coast. Manila says it wants to keep a close eye on the site—which lies within its 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone—after it detected an intensifying presence of China’s fishing militia and marine research vessels there, as well as signs of what it suspects could be preliminary land reclamation. China has demanded that the Philippines withdraw the ship. It says much of the South China Sea belongs to Beijing—including the uninhabited Sabina Shoal, which lies 630 nautical miles from China—and rejects a 2016 ruling by an international tribunal that said its claims have no legal basis. It says the Teresa Magbanua, anchored for months, marks an attempt by Manila to create a long-term presence at Sabina Shoal. Click here to read… [18]

Biden approved strategy to prepare against coordinated nuclear challenges from NK, China, Russia: NYT

President Joe Biden approved a secret strategy earlier this year to focus on China's growing nuclear threats and prepare the United States for possible coordinated nuclear challenges from North Korea, China and Russia, The New York Times reported Aug 20. Biden's approval in March of the revised strategy, called the "Nuclear Employment Guidance," came amid North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile threats, China's rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal and Russia's perceived nuclear saber-rattling. Updated every four years or so, the document is so confidential that only a small number of hard copies were distributed to a few security officials and Pentagon commanders, according to the newspaper. During a forum hosted by the Arms Control Association in June, Pranay Vaddi, senior director for arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation on the National Security Council, already mentioned that Biden had issued an updated nuclear weapons employment guidance. Vaddi commented on the guidance, warning that Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow are expanding and diversifying their nuclear weapons stockpiles at a "breakneck" speed. "(The guidance) emphasizes the need to account for the growth and diversity of the PRC's nuclear arsenal and the need to deter Russia, the PRC and North Korea simultaneously," he told the forum, referring to China by its official name, the People's Republic of China. Click here to read… [19]

Japan's ruling party to vote on Kishida successor on Sept. 27

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party decided Aug 20 to hold its presidential election to select a successor to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Sept. 27, while also defining a 15-day campaigning period to start on Sept. 12. The upcoming contest, the first since 2021 when Kishida was elected party chief, is currently expected to see 11 candidates vie for the party's top job, with the winner to be anointed prime minister given the ruling parties control both houses of parliament. Kishida's abrupt announcement last week that he will not seek reelection has led a wide field of LDP figures to consider running, with the winner faced with the task of restoring trust in the party that has been eroded by unhappiness with its members' links to the controversial Unification Church and a long-running political funds scandal. Kishida's three-year term as LDP president expires at the end of September. The LDP decided to extend the campaigning period from the 12 days of the 2021 contest to 15 days this time, in an apparent bid to improve transparency in hopes of restoring public trust in the party. Around the same period, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, currently led by Kenta Izumi, is scheduled to hold its own leadership election, with campaigning due to begin on Sept. 7 and voting on Sept. 23. Click here to read… [20]

Japan, India discuss export of ‘stealth’ antenna on MSDF vessels

Japan and India discussed Tokyo’s planned export to New Delhi of a communication antenna that makes it more difficult to detect naval vessels. At a meeting here on Aug. 20, foreign and defense ministers from the two countries agreed to bolster security cooperation in defense equipment and joint exercises. Japan was represented by Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara. Their Indian counterparts were Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the minister of external affairs, and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. The Unicorn communication antenna, which integrates multiple antennas, is deployed aboard the Maritime Self-Defense Force’s Mogami-class frigate vessels. The name stands for “unified complex radio antenna.” The ministers also discussed promoting joint exercises between the SDF and the Indian military. Additionally, they agreed to deepen cooperation in space and cyberspace. The Aug. 20 meeting was the third between Japanese and Indian foreign and defense ministers. The second was held about two years ago. Tokyo hopes that stronger security cooperation with India will help align the South Asian giant with Japan and the United States in its efforts to keep China and Russia in check. India, which is at odds with China over their borders, has emphasized a friendly relationship with Japan. But the country has maintained close ties with Russia. Click here to read… [21]

Work to remove nuclear fuel at Fukushima plant postponed again

Tokyo Electric Power Co. on Aug. 22 again postponed a long-awaited test to remove melted nuclear fuel from the stricken Fukushima No. 1 power plant, citing a mistake in equipment installation. The removal work was scheduled for later that day at the plant’s No. 2 reactor. TEPCO said it has not yet decided on a new starting time. According to the utility, preparatory work began at around 7:30 a.m. on Aug. 22. However, TEPCO later discovered that equipment for the test was installed in the wrong order. TEPCO’S plan was to open an isolation valve, insert a simple “fishing rod-type device,” and move it on a path toward the reactor containment vessel via remote control. Once in the containment vessel, the tool would extract up to 3 grams of fuel debris over a period of about two weeks, according to the plan.But work was halted because of the possibility that the device may not pass through, the company said. TEPCO said no radiation leaks have been confirmed as a result of the opening of the isolation valve. The radiation level inside the containment vessel of the No. 2 reactor is several tens of sieverts per hour, enough to kill most people within a few minutes. The only way to remove the fuel debris is to use a remote-controlled robot. Click here to read… [22]

Turkey lauds improvement in relations with China after long stagnation

Relations between Turkey and China have been making progress as of late, after years of stagnation mostly due to the thorny issue of China's alleged ill treatment of its ethnic Turkic Muslim minority of Uyghurs. A recent large-scale investment from Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD in Turkey and the announcement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of possible reciprocal state visits by the Turkish and Chinese leaders herald a sea change in bilateral relations. Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Kazakhstan on July 4 on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. According to a readout of Chinese foreign ministry after their meeting, "Xi Jinping pointed out that China-Turkey relations have maintained steady momentum of growth." Later in July, on his way back to Turkey from the NATO summit in the U.S, Erdogan revealed to reporters that Xi had invited him to China this year during the SCO gathering. "He invited me to China again. I invited him to Turkey. He replied, 'let me have a return visit next year.' We had the opportunity to speak about all bilateral and commercial aspects," Erdogan said. "Very likely I will visit China after the United Nations General Assembly [in September]. But I believe [Xi] will visit Turkey in 2025." he added. Click here to read… [23]

Turkey Hopes to Reset EU Ties With Rare Ministerial Meeting

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is set to attend informal talks with European Union counterparts on Aug. 29 for the first time in five years as the bloc works to improve ties with the country. Turkey welcomed the invitation to a so-called Gymnich meeting in Brussels as a sign of a “search for dialog” and hopes it will lead to the “amendment” of the EU’s 2019 punitive measures over Ankara’s energy exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean, the state-run Anadolu Agency cited Foreign Ministry Spokesman Oncu Keceli as saying. Those measures, which saw Brussels side with member states Greece and Cyprus, included the suspension of some membership talks with Turkey, hampering trade and blocking some defense deals including the sale of Eurofighter warplanes. “This invitation is a sign that the EU understands the necessity of developing relations between Turkey in the face of regional and global challenges,” Keceli said. The meeting follows a thaw between Turkey and Greece and comes after Ankara stepped up its search for multilateral alliances including with BRICS alongside Russia and China, citing frustration over a lack of progress in membership talks with Brussels. Click here to read… [24]

U.S. urges Japan to name disaster relief hub task force members

The United States on Aug 21 called on Japan to name its representatives for a joint task force that will determine the location and resources for a humanitarian assistance and disaster relief hub they have agreed to establish in Japan. In letters seen by Reuters on Aug 22, the U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel asked Japan’s foreign and defense ministers, Yoko Kamikawa and Minoru Kihara, to provide the names of four Japanese officials at its “earliest convenience” and urged them to propose a date for the inaugural task force meeting. “The effects of climate change are bringing devastation and destruction to communities around the world with ever-greater frequency and ferocity,” Emanuel told Reuters in a separate comment. Emergency supplies at the hub could also likely be used to help civilians displaced by any conflict in Asia. The commitment made in April by U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to establish the facility came amid growing concern about Chinese military drills around Taiwan. In his letter, Emanuel said that he, along with Lieutenant General Roger Turner, the U.S Marine Corp commander in Japan, Colonel Patrick Biggs, the country’s U.S. Army Corp of Engineers chief, and regional USAID head, Heath Cosgrove, would represent Washington on the task force. Click here to read… [25]

Zelensky signs law to ban Ukraine’s largest church

Vladimir Zelensky has signed a law that calls for the banning of any religious group suspected of having ties to Russia. It threatens to effectively shut down the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) – the largest faith-based organization in the country. The Ukrainian parliament introduced the legislation earlier this week; it is expected to take effect in 30 days. After that, all the activities of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) and all affiliated religious organizations will be outlawed. The UOC will have nine months to sever all ties with the ROC, despite the Ukrainian church having already declared full autonomy from the Moscow Patriarchate in 2022, following the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict. After signing the legislation on Aug 24, the country’s Independence Day, Zelensky released a video address stating that “Ukrainian Orthodoxy is today taking a step towards liberation from Moscow’s devils.” Moscow has condemned Ukraine's crackdown on religious communities; the Holy Synod of the ROC issued a statement on Aug 22 comparing the new legislation with Soviet-style repression and other historical persecutions of Christians. “The purpose of this law is to liquidate [the UOC] and all its communities and to forcibly transfer them to other religious organizations,” the Synod surmised, noting that “hundreds of monasteries, thousands of communities, and millions of Orthodox believers in Ukraine will find themselves outlawed and will lose their property and place of prayer.” Click here to read… [26]

Khamenei’s calculus: Iran supreme leader faces a bitter choice on Israel

In the shadowy corridors of Tehran’s power, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the end of July – widely believed to have been carried out by Israel – shattered a fragile equilibrium. The timing of this escalation in the longstanding conflict between Iran and Israel could not have been worse, with newly sworn-in President Masoud Pezeshkian still getting used to his role when this geopolitical fireball was hurled into his lap. For Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the assassination of the Palestinian group’s leader was more than a provocation, it was an existential challenge. The explosion that killed Haniyeh, which Iran believed was a missile launched from within its own borders, was a breach of sovereignty that angered Tehran and put Khamenei’s 2003 fatwa prohibiting the manufacture, use and storage of nuclear weapons under increased scrutiny. The high-level debate over whether Khamenei’s fatwa on nuclear weapons served Iran’s strategic priorities was already continuing prior to Haniyeh’s assassination, according to a senior Iranian official who spoke to Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity. Khamenei has steered Iran through global shifts from the Cold War’s end to the rise of United States unipolarity and conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria – and through the fraught history of Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers. Click here to read… [27]

Sudan army chief criticises Geneva talks, vows to continue fighting RSF

Sudan’s de facto ruler, army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has said his government would not join peace talks in Switzerland, saying the military would “fight for 100 years” if necessary to defeat the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Burhan, who leads the governing Transitional Sovereignty Council, told reporters in Port Sudan on Aug 24 that the talks aim to “whitewash” the RSF and countries that support the paramilitaries. “We will not put down our weapons as the rebellion continues. We will not co-exist with the rebels, and we will not forgive them,” he said. The United States opened talks in Switzerland on August 14, which concluded on Aug 23, aimed at easing the human suffering and achieving a lasting ceasefire. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates also acted as mediators in the talks, which aimed to secure more aid as Sudanese civilians face famine, mass displacement and disease. While an RSF delegation showed up, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Burhan, were unhappy with the format and did not attend. But they were in telephone contact with the mediators. “Though we were in consistent communication with SAF virtually, we regret their decision not to be present, and we believe that limited our ability to make more substantial progress towards key issues, particularly a national cessation of hostilities,” the mediators said in a statement on Aug 23. Click here to read… [28]

Republicans and Democrats Sharply Divided on Energy

Energy and climate issues have long been a point of division in American politics, with Democrats generally believing in investing in renewable energy sources while Republicans are more supportive of expanding energy production more broadly, including the use of fossil fuels and nuclear energy. This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Kayla Zhu, shows the portion of Democrat (and Democrat-leaning) and Republican (and Republican-leaning) U.S. adults who favor expanding various energy sources in the United States. The figures come from a Pew Research Center survey of over 8,500 U.S. adults conducted in May 2024. Which Energy Sources Do Democrats and Republicans Support? Nuclear energy has the smallest partisan gap out of any energy source (18 percentage points). Around two-thirds of Republicans support expanding nuclear energy compared to roughly half of Democrats. In total, 56% of U.S. adults surveyed are supportive of expanding nuclear power in America. Democrats are far more supportive of expanding renewable energy sources like solar and wind compared to Republicans, while Republicans are more supportive of fossil fuels like oil and coal. Coal mining has the greatest partisan gap at 48 percentage points, with only 16% of Democrats favouring coal expansion compared to 64% of Republicans. Click here to read… [29]

Unification minister urges NK to respond to proposal of forming inter-Korean working group

On Aug 22, Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho urged North Korea once again to respond to South Korea’s request for working-level consultations to initiate dialogue between the two Koreas. Kim stressed that the formation of the inter-Korean working group is the most important action plan addressed in President Yoon Suk Yeol’s 8.15 Unification Doctrine. “President Yoon made the suggestion to North Korea to engage in working-level consultations without limiting the agenda. We’ve seen a history where the working-level consultations eventually led to higher-level consultations and an agreement between the two Koreas. So I’d like to ask the North to carefully consider our proposal and return to the path of dialogue,” Kim said during a press conference with foreign correspondents in Seoul, Aug 22. The minister said South Korea will utilize the advancement of technologies to spread outside information and culture to North Korea, taking the example of how the introduction of satellites brought about change in the USSR during the Cold War. According to Kim, about 80 percent of the 6,351 North Korean defectors who settled in South Korea between 2013 and 2022 said they had access to foreign media content including South Korean dramas and movies. Click here to read… [30]

As China celebrates Deng Xiaoping’s legacy, the country is again at a crossroads

Chairman Mao Zedong called him the “steel factory” for his uncompromising resolve. Yet he was also a master of charm – winning the hearts and minds of the American public in one swoop by donning a cowboy hat on the first visit by a Chinese communist leader to the US. The “chief architect” of the greatest economic liberation programme in history was also the man who demanded that the Communist Party “unwaveringly uphold the dictatorship of the proletariat”, nipping the country’s democracy movement in its bud. As China celebrates the 120th anniversary of the birth of the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, the seemingly contradictory duality of the man and his legacy continue to resonate. In Chinese culture, 60 years is known as jiazi, representing the full alignment cycle between heaven and earth. The commemoration of Deng’s 120th birthday on August 22 comes at a most intriguing time. After four decades of spectacular growth thanks to Deng’s reforms, the world is again “standing at a crossroads of history”, as his modern-day successor Xi Jinping put it. Comparisons between the two men are almost inevitable. Xi, said to be the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng, is often depicted in Western narratives as the “dismantler” of Deng’s reforms – an assertion that Beijing would angrily dismiss as a smear. Xi, according to various official reports and his own speeches, regards himself as Deng’s true heir and the one to see through the great mission that Deng started – the rejuvenation of China as a great civilisation. Click here to read… [31]

Health

American clinical trials in China questioned by U.S. lawmakers

A bipartisan group of lawmakers on Aug 20 called on the Biden administration to ramp up scrutiny of U.S. clinical trials conducted in China, citing the risk of intellectual property theft and the possibility of forced participation of Uyghurs. Republican John Moolenaar, who chairs the House Select Committee on China, and ranking Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi said U.S. drug companies have collaborated with Chinese military-run hospitals to conduct hundreds of clinical trials over the last decade, including in Xinjiang, home to China's Uyghur minority group. The Chinese Embassy and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration did not immediately respond to requests for comment. "Given the historical suppression and medical discrimination against ethnic minorities in this region, there are significant ethical concerns around conducting clinical trials in (Xinjiang)," Moolenaar and Krishnamoorthi wrote in a letter dated Aug. 19 and addressed to Robert Califf, who oversees the FDA. Beijing denies all accusations of abuse against Uyghurs. The letter, also signed by Democrat Anna Eshoo and Republican Neal Dunn, went on: "These collaborative research activities raise serious concerns that critical intellectual property is at risk of being transferred to the (People's Liberation Army) or being co-opted under the People's Republic of China's National Security Law." The letter is a sign of growing concern over China's role in the biotechnology industry. Click here to read… [32]

WHO boss calls for $135 million to stop mpox outbreak

The head of the World Health Organization called for global concerted action to control a new mpox outbreak, announcing a response plan that will require at least $135 million over the next six months. "Let me be clear: this new mpox outbreak can be controlled and can be stopped," Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a speech to WHO member states on Aug 23, later posted on social media platform X. "Responding to this complex outbreak requires a comprehensive and coordinated international response," he said. Click here to read… [33]