Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (26 Aug- 01 Sep)

Economic

China now global leader in 90% of critical tech research: think tank

China is the top research nation in the vast majority of advanced technologies, according to a new study by an Australian think tank that calls on the U.S. and its Asian allies to work together to catch up. The government-backed Australian Strategic Policy Institute's (ASPI) Critical Technology Tracker assesses countries' research competitiveness based on the number of research paper citations in 64 technology categories. China grabbed the top spot in 57 areas, or nearly 90%, for papers released between 2019 and 2023, according to a report released Aug 28. This represents a turnaround from the 2003-2007 period, when the U.S. led in 60 out of 64 categories, while China topped just three. For 2019-2023, the U.S. ranked first in just seven categories, including quantum computing and biotechnology, gene technologies and vaccines. In particular, China has made strides in dual-use technologies that have possible military applications. There are 24 categories classified as being at high risk of being monopolized by a country, including radar, satellite positioning and drones. When it comes to citations related to hypersonic detection and tracking, China has a 73% share, the U.S. has 13% and the U.K. 3%. For advanced aircraft engines, China leads with 63% while the U.S. trails at 7%. Click here to read… [2]

House Plans Votes on Biosecure Act, Other Measures Hitting China

House Republican leaders plan votes early next month on a series of measures targeting Chinese companies, including one that would bar federal contractors from doing business with five Chinese biotechnology firms. The party leadership notified Republican congressional offices in an email Aug 29 to expect House votes on the Biosecure Act and other legislation aimed at Chinese companies when lawmakers return to work from their summer break on Sept. 9, according to several people who have seen the email. Speaker Mike Johnson previewed some of the legislation in a speech last month, arguing that business relationships with Chinese biotech companies would leave federal contractors “beholden” to a US adversary and “endanger Americans’ health care data.” Lawmakers in both parties have been raising alarm about economic and national security threats posed by China. The Biosecure Act passed the House Oversight Committee 40-1 in May and would affect five companies to start: BGI Group, MGI, Complete Genomics, WuXi AppTec, and WuXi Biologics. Bloomberg Intelligence rates the outlook for passage as high given strong support for the bill in both the House and the Senate. Backers of the bill have expressed concern that Chinese companies could grow to dominate the biotech space with potential effects on national security as well as the economy, and say American tax dollars should not finance the growth of Chinese tech. Click here to read… [3]

Thailand's 'land bridge' ambitions face fresh roadblocks

As Thailand inches forward on its decades-old vision for a logistics corridor connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans, local opposition and political instability threaten the plans. The proposed 90-kilometer highway-and-rail link would cut across the Malay Peninsula, connecting a planned port facing the Indian Ocean in Ranong province with another planned port, in Chumphon province, along the Gulf of Thailand and with a lane to the Pacific Ocean. A special economic zone will be established nearby. The megaproject would allow cargo to bypass the congested Strait of Malacca -- a choke point that is sandwiched by Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia and is only expected to grow busier as Asia's economy expands. But the plan threatens environmental devastation for Koh Phayam, a resort island famous for sparkling blue waters and coral reefs near the planned port in Ranong. The government has told residents of Koh Phayam that the port will cover roughly 1,000 hectares. Shipping lanes for giant bulk carriers would be established near the island, which involves digging into roughly 6,400 hectares of seabed -- about twice the area of the island itself. "What will happen to the reefs once the port is completed? Will the residents be able to continue living here?" asked Sayan, a guest house operator born and raised on the island. "There hasn't been a proper explanation from the government." Click here to read… [4]

Chinese loans to Africa back to pre-pandemic volume but show new approach to risk

Last year, Chinese lenders advanced their largest volume of lending to African countries since before the pandemic, a new study has shown. However, while the US$4.61 billion loaned was the highest since 2019, it was still only a fraction of the massive amounts Beijing advanced to African countries in the early years of its Belt and Road Initiative, according to data compiled by the Boston University Global Development Policy Centre. Cumulative commitments between 2013 and 2018 surpassed US$10 billion annually, the centre’s updated “Chinese Loans to Africa Database” shows. The loans last year went to eight African countries: Angola, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Eritrea, Madagascar, Nigeria and Uganda. What does it mean for the world when Chinese consumers tighten their belts? Chinese lenders also channelled financing to Africa via multilateral platforms such as the African Export-Import Bank and the Africa Finance Corporation, mainly for small and medium-sized enterprises and trade finance-related purposes. The increased lending could partly point to a recovery in Chinese financing activities in Africa after a years-long slump and may be indicative of China’s revised belt and road infrastructure programme. The updated loan data was released on Aug 29, days ahead of the 9th Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) to be hosted by Beijing this week. Click here to read… [5]

US Sees Bipartisan Backing for Africa Critical Minerals Plan

A senior US State Department official reassured the African governments that an initiative to help counter China’s influence through developing infrastructure on the continent will continue even after a change in administration. The flagship of the plan — a railway project known as the Lobito corridor that connects copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo to an Atlantic port in Angola — is already far advanced, Helaina Matza, acting special coordinator for the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, told reporters on Aug 28. “In many ways, there’s a good deal of bipartisan support,” Matza said in response to a question on what a new administration could mean for the Lobito corridor and other efforts. “Especially around how we approach elements of the energy transition and the way that we support clean energy and critical mineral supply chains.” The Biden administration has championed the Lobito project as part of a Group of Seven infrastructure plan. The program aims to deploy $600 billion by 2027 to close the infrastructure gap around the world to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative and secure access to minerals critical to the energy transition. Yet questions have emerged whether Donald Trump will continue the effort if he wins US presidential elections in November. Click here to read… [6]

New unproductive forces: Chinese youth owning their unemployment

Urban youth unemployment for the roughly 100 million Chinese aged 16-24 spiked to 17.1 percent in July, a figure analysts say masks millions of rural unemployed. China suspended releasing youth jobless data after it reached an all-time high of 21.3 percent in June 2023, later tweaking criteria to exclude current students. Over 200 million people are currently working in the gig economy and even that once fast-growing sector has its own overcapacity issues. A dozen Chinese cities have warned of ride-hailing oversaturation this year. Redundancies have even spread to government work, long considered an "iron rice bowl" of lifetime employment. Last year Beijing announced a 5 percent headcount reduction and thousands have been laid off since, according to official announcements and news reports. Henan province trimmed 5,600 jobs earlier this year, while Shandong province has cut nearly 10,000 positions since 2022. Meanwhile, analysts say China's 3.9 million vocational college graduates are mostly equipped for low-end manufacturing and service jobs, and reforms announced in 2022 will take years to fix underinvestment in training long regarded as inferior to universities. China currently faces a shortage of welders, joiners, elderly caregivers and "highly-skilled digital talent", its human resources minister said in March. Click here to read… [7]

Libya’s Political Feud Threatens Return of Oil Supply Chaos

Libya’s political crisis is threatening to return the OPEC member’s oil production to the chaos that plagued it for years after the toppling of dictator Moammar Al Qaddafi. The North African nation’s crude output was slashed in half this week as authorities in the east shuttered more than 500,000 barrels a day amid a fight with the Tripoli-based government for control of the central bank. All the nation’s eastern export terminals closed on Aug 29. The disruption could swell to 1 million barrels a day, according to consultants Rapidan Energy Group. That would amount to roughly 1% of global supply. It would also mark a major fracturing of a 2021 political arrangement brokered by the United Nations to reconcile the two rival camps. “Even if a compromise is reached on control of the central bank, it seems like the fragile deal that has provided relative stability to Libya’s oil sector for the last few years is breaking down,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. “Output is likely to be more volatile and prone to outages heading into 2025.” Eastern authorities froze oil exports after the UN-recognized government in Tripoli led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah replaced Sadiq Al-Kabir, governor of the central bank. Click here to read… [8]

Taliban Laws Further Curbing Women’s Rights Bring Global Outcry

New laws by Afghanistan’s Taliban government, which include banning women from speaking or showing their faces in public, sparked global condemnation and could potentially jeopardize the regime’s efforts to gain legitimacy. The Taliban, which took over power three years ago during the chaotic US withdrawal, published a slew of new “vice and virtue” laws last week in the official gazette of Afghanistan. The laws required women to conceal their faces and bodies with thick clothing to avoid tempting men. Women are also not allowed to let their voices be heard in public, including from singing or reading aloud, and are forbidden from looking directly at men who aren’t relatives. The “morality” law is “unconscionable,” Rosemary A. DiCarlo, United Nations’ undersecretary general for political and peacebuilding affairs, said in a post on X, adding that, if maintained, the law “can only impede Afghanistan’s return to the international fold.” The Taliban has established limited diplomatic links with some countries, including Russia and China, but even those countries have not formally recognized its government. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahed rejected the criticism in a statement saying, “concerns raised by various parties will not sway the Islamic Emirate from its commitment to upholding and enforcing Islamic Sharia law.” Click here to read… [9]

China Invested $676 Billion in Its Energy Transition Last Year

China invested a total of $676 billion in its energy transition last year, the Chinese authorities said on Aug 29 in a white paper on the country’s renewable energy market and energy pathways forward. China led global investments in low-carbon energy in 2023, China’s State Council Information Office said in the white paper “China's Energy Transition”. Since 2013, China has been responsible for over 40% of the annual additions to global renewable energy capacity. Last year, China’s newly installed renewables capacity accounted for more than half of the world’s total, the white paper showed. At a news conference to present the white paper, the head of the National Energy Administration, Zhang Jianhu, said that China would continue to phase out fossil fuels, reform its electricity system, and promote green electricity trading. China is pursuing rapid expansion of its renewable energy capacity, but it isn’t ditching coal. China has yet to see its carbon dioxide emissions peak as it is a developing nation and has a massive population. The message came from the country’s National Energy Administration in response to speculation that China had achieved peak emissions before its own deadline. “We should not forget that China is still a developing country, pursuing modernization for a huge population,” the head of law and institutional reform at the NEA, Song Wen, told media on Aug 29. Click here to read… [10]

U.S. Expands Sanctions on Entities Involved in Russia’s Arctic LNG 2

The U.S. State Department is intensifying efforts to derail Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 exports by targeting companies involved in the development of the project and vessels found to have loaded LNG from the facility. Located in the Gydan Peninsula in the Arctic, the Arctic LNG 2 project was considered key to Russia’s efforts to boost its global LNG market share from 8% to 20% by 2030-2035. But Arctic LNG 2 has been basically on ice since the U.S. imposed in November 2023 fresh sanctions on the Russian project. As a result, foreign shareholders suspended participation in Arctic LNG 2, effectively withdrawing from the financing of the project and for offtake contracts for the new plant. The project has already seen months of delays after the U.S. sanctions upended the company’s plans for production start-up and export timelines. Russia, however, has started to amass a dark fleet of tankers to ship its LNG in vessel ownership transfers similar to the moves that Moscow began after the invasion of Ukraine to create a shadow fleet to export oil and products in the face of Western sanctions. Some tankers have recently departed from the sanctioned terminal in northern Russia, signalling Moscow’s continued efforts to circumvent Western restrictions. The U.S. State Department has recently said it had “taken new steps to sanction entities supporting the development of Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 and other future energy projects.” Click here to read… [11]

Russia and Bangladesh discuss ties amid political turmoil

Moscow will continue to support Dhaka in the international arena, Russian ambassador to Bangladesh Aleksandr Mantytsky said on Aug 27, as he met with Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, the head of the South Asian nation’s interim government. The interim government was formed earlier this month after the prime minister at the time, Sheikh Hasina, was ousted from power and fled the country following deadly student-led protests. During their meeting in Dhaka, Mantytsky and Yunus discussed bilateral ties, including a project for the construction of the 2,400MW Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant in Bangladesh, the Daily Prothom Alo reported. The two sides also discussed increased cooperation in food security, energy exploration, and science and technology. Mantytsky said the construction of the Rooppur plant, which began in 2017, is in the final stage and will be operational next year. The project is being financed by Russia through several credit facilities, including a line of credit for 90% of the $12.65 billion contract for construction of the plant signed between Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission and Atomstroyexport, the nuclear power equipment and service exporter of Rosatom. The loan is repayable within 28 years with a ten-year grace period. Earlier this month, Mantytsky told TASS that Moscow will work with any leader of Bangladesh willing to engage in an “equal and mutually respectful dialogue” with Russia. Click here to read… [12]

Russia responds to Ukraine’s refusal to extend gas transit deal

The termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine will seriously hit consumers in the EU, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Aug 28. Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky said on Aug 27 that Kiev would not extend its gas transit agreement with Moscow, which expires at the end of 2024. The Ukrainian decision could result in higher prices for European consumers who want to buy more affordable gas, Peskov stated. “They [Europeans] will have to pay much more for gas from other suppliers, including for the US liquefied natural gas (LNG), which will make the [European] industry less competitive,” Peskov said. The Kremlin spokesman, however, noted that there are also alternative routes for Russian gas supplies to the bloc, including via a planned Turkish hub. “Work is underway on this matter,” Peskov stated. Brokered by the EU, the five-year deal between Kiev and Moscow, signed in 2019, provides for Russian energy giant Gazprom to transit 65 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas through Ukraine in 2020, and 40 bcm annually between 2021 and 2024. “The agreement with Russia will not be prolonged, that’s it,” Zelensky told a press conference on Aug 27, adding that after the contract expires Ukraine will decide jointly with the EU on the transit of Russian gas through its territory. Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko confirmed earlier that Kiev had no plans to prolong the deal. Click here to read… [13]

IT failure causes nationwide outage in EU state

A network failure at the Dutch Defense Ministry has caused cascading computer problems across the Netherlands, shutting down Eindhoven Airport and even disrupting police communications. The unspecified problem was first detected on Aug 27 evening on a military network. The Dutch National Cybersecurity Center (NCSC) could not say whether the outage was caused by a cyberattack. “We are experiencing an outage in one of our networks at the defense department and it is a network that is also used by other parts of the Dutch government,” Laurens Bos, a Defense Ministry spokesperson, told AP on Wednesday. The NCSC noted that it could not send out security alerts due to a problem with the data center. Eindhoven Airport, which also serves as a military installation, had to ground all flights on Aug 28. Low-cost carriers Transavia and Ryanair cancelled most of their flights, forcing some passengers to take buses 150km south to Brussels, Belgium. “There is no air traffic at all and we have very little information about the cause,” airport spokesperson Judith de Roy told the media. The Dutch Coast Guard said their phones and radios weren’t working. The Dutch national police, which is in charge of passport controls at airports and seaports, also said its officers had resorted to using cell phones and texting. It was unclear whether the “major outage” with the mobile telephone service at provider KPN was related to the issue at the Defense Ministry. Click here to read… [14]

Post-Nikai Japan-China relations left in murky waters

As a nonpartisan legislative group visited China for the first time in five years, the spotlight fell on the impending departure of its leader, Toshihiro Nikai, from the Diet. Nikai, 85, a former ruling Liberal Democratic Party secretary-general, is a vital conduit to China, which raises the question of who will continue in that role. Nikai has announced that he will not run in the next Lower House election, and it is believed that this was his last visit to China as a Diet member. The loss of Nikai's connections and influence has raised concern among the central government. Diplomacy with China, which is controlled by the Communist Party, is important not only between the two governments but also between political parties. However, there are few next-generation Diet members who are willing to serve as liaisons with China as Nikai has done. “Japanese lawmakers are going only to Taiwan," a top Foreign Ministry official lamented. "When Nikai retires, there will be no one left to be the flag-bearer in exchanges with China.” The Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians' Union visit was scheduled from Aug. 27 to 29. During the three days, the group held a series of meetings with Chinese dignitaries. It was the nonpartisan group’s first visit to China since May 2019 and the first since Nikai assumed the chairmanship in 2023. Click here to read… [15]

South Korea's Yoon vows to reform pension plan set to run dry in 2055

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol pledged Aug 29 to overhaul the country's pension system, which the government now estimates will run out of money in three decades as the birth rate plummets and more seniors retire. The Ministry of Health and Welfare estimated last year that the national pension fund will begin running a deficit in 2041, forcing it to start drawing down previously accumulated funds. This reserve will peak in 2040 at 1.76 quadrillion won ($1.32 trillion) before declining rapidly and being depleted entirely in 2055. The drop-off owes to rapidly changing demographics. South Korea's total fertility rate -- the number of births per woman during her reproductive years -- slid from 4.53 in 1970 to 1.57 in 1990 and was the world's lowest at 0.72 as of last year. In light of this, the government aims to fundamentally rework the pension system rather than make tweaks that will just hold off its collapse for a few years. "Only when the law clearly states that the government will guarantee payments can young people feel confident that they will get them," Yoon told reporters. The president discussed automatic stabilization mechanisms, which would adjust benefits based on factors such as inflation or the number of people paying into the system. Japan, which is also facing demographic challenges, introduced a "macroeconomic slide" for this purpose in 2004, and Finland lowers pension benefits as medical advances boost average life expectancy. Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

Xi tells Sullivan to view China 'rationally' ahead of planned Biden call

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Aug 29 told U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan that despite "great changes" in bilateral ties, Beijing is committed to forging a stable relationship with Washington, according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV. "We hope that the U.S. will work with China towards the same goal, view China and its development in a positive and rational manner, see each other's development as an opportunity rather than a challenge, and work with China to find a correct way for the two major countries to get along," Xi was quoted as saying, as Sullivan wrapped up his three-day visit to Beijing. A brief White House readout of Sullivan's conversation with Xi said the two discussed counternarcotics cooperation, military-to-military communications, and the safety and risks of artificial intelligence. They also touched on "cross-strait issues, Russia's war against Ukraine, and the South China Sea," plus plans for a possible call between Xi and U.S. President Joe Biden in the coming weeks. Earlier in the day, Sullivan met with Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission, reaffirming the importance of open lines of communication between the rival powers' armed forces. Sullivan stressed that both countries have a responsibility to prevent competition from veering into conflict or confrontation, according to the White House. Click here to read… [17]

Chinese surveillance plane breaches Japanese airspace for first time

A Chinese surveillance plane violated Japanese airspace on Aug 26, Japan's Ministry of Defense announced. The Y-9 aircraft belonging to the Chinese military flew off the coast of the Danjo Islands, a set of small islands in the East China Sea, southwest of Nagasaki. The morning incursion was the first such breach by a Chinese military aircraft, the ministry said. Japan's Air Self-Defense Force scrambled F-15 and F-2 fighter jets to warn off the Chinese plane. The defense ministry said the incursion lasted about two minutes, and that no weapons were used. Japanese Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Masataka Okano summoned the charge d'affaires at the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo and lodged a strong protest, insisting such an incident must not be repeated. The Ministry of Defense also protested through diplomatic channels to China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Chinese side had yet to publicly comment on the incident. While Aug 26's violation was the first by a Chinese military plane, a fixed-wing aircraft belonging to Beijing's former State Oceanic Administration crossed the boundary in 2012, as did a small, unmanned aircraft belonging to the China Coast Guard in 2017. Click here to read… [18]

Putin ‘not worried’ about ICC warrant on Mongolia trip – Kremlin

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not concerned that Mongolia could arrest him on International Criminal Court charges during his upcoming trip, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said. Putin is scheduled to visit Mongolia on Sept 02 for a World War II commemoration. This would theoretically put him at risk of arrest on the ICC’s “war crimes” warrant, as Ulaanbaatar recognizes the court’s jurisdiction. “We have excellent relations with our friends from Mongolia,” Peskov told reporters on Aug 30. All issues concerning Putin’s visit have been “worked out separately” he added, noting that Moscow “has no concerns” about the ICC warrant. Putin is expected to attend a ceremony commemorating the 1939 Battle of Khalkhin Gol. The Soviet-Mongolian victory over the Imperial Japanese Army secured the USSR’s eastern flank until 1945. The Russian president has received assurances from the Mongolian government that he will not be arrested, Bloomberg reported on Aug 30, citing two sources familiar with the matter. The ICC issued a warrant for Putin’s arrest in March 2023, accusing the Russian president of “unlawful deportation of population (children)” and “unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.” Moscow has rejected the claims as ridiculous, noting that evacuation of civilians from combat zones – where they were targeted by Ukrainian artillery and drones – was not a crime. Click here to read… [19]

Netanyahu vows more ‘surprising blows’ against Hezbollah

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Israel’s preemptive strike on Hezbollah launch sites in southern Lebanon on Aug 25 is “not the end of the story,” and vowed more “surprising blows.” The Israeli military has said it carried out preemptive strikes against the Lebanon-based militia after concluding that an attack by Hezbollah was imminent. Around 100 Israeli Air Force fighter jets, directed by IDF intelligence, reportedly destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon. The Islamic paramilitary group subsequently fired hundreds of rockets at Israel to avenge the death of its top commander, Fouad Shukr, who was killed in an airstrike on Beirut last month. “What happened today is not the end of the story,” Netanyahu told a government meeting on Aug 25. “We are striking Hezbollah with surprising crushing blows. Three weeks ago, we eliminated its chief of staff [Fuad Shukr], and today we thwarted its attack plan,” he stated. Multiple media reports indicated that US intelligence had helped thwart the Hezbollah attack, but Washington was not directly involved in the Israeli operation. According to the Israeli prime minister, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “need to know that this is an additional step in changing the situation in the north and returning our residents securely to their homes.” Click here to read… [20]

Kiev should not expect more long-range missiles from US – CNN

Washington has made it “clear” that it cannot provide Kiev with any significant number of MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) in the foreseeable future, CNN reported on Aug 31, citing an unnamed US official. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon this week to discuss additional military aid. During the meeting he reportedly presented him with a list of “high-value” targets that Kiev would like to strike, deep inside Russia, using American-made weapons. In an interview with CNN after the meeting, Umerov claimed that Ukraine is pushing to lift the ATACMS restrictions for “self-defense,” arguing that “the airfields being used to hit our cities are within the range of deep strikes.” However, a US defense official told the channel that many of the targets on Ukraine’s wish list are in fact outside the missile’s range, as Moscow has relocated its high-value assets away from the front. The US has also “made it clear that Kiev should not expect another significant delivery of ATACMS due to the finite number in US inventories and the long production time of the weapon,” CNN wrote, citing the source. The official noted that Ukraine has so far received a very “limited” supply of these missiles. Click here to read… [21]

Nuclear Weapons Always Stopped Invasions. Then Ukrainian Troops Poured Into Russia.

Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk isn’t just a brash bid to upend Russia’s invasion. It also marks the first time that a declared nuclear power has faced invasion and occupation by another country. For decades, nuclear-escalation theory has presumed that countries with atomic weapons were largely immune from attack because an aggressor risked triggering Armageddon. Relatively small states including Israel, Iran, North Korea and Libya have pursued nuclear arms in part to deter attacks by larger, better-armed adversaries. Nuclear powers have scuffled: India has had border skirmishes with China and Pakistan. Palestinian Hamas militants in October stormed into Israel, which is widely believed to have nuclear weapons. But generally the threat of annihilation has protected nuclear-armed countries from large-scale attack and kept peace between them. Ukraine isn’t a nuclear power and is outgunned by Russia, yet Kyiv has managed for more than three weeks to control territory now totalling almost 500 square miles. It is a stunning twist. Strategists over the years have frequently envisaged countries from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization grabbing Russian turf in a fight, not a beleaguered underdog doing it. Now Western leaders, military thinkers and nuclear theorists are puzzling over what current events mean for prospects of Russian escalation—and for future war gaming. Theoretical risk faces a real-world test, forcing a re-examination of the role nuclear weapons can play in deterrence. Click here to read… [22]

U.N. Agency Issues Fresh Warning Over Iranian Nuclear Activities

Iran has continued to expand its stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium in recent months, a confidential report from the United Nations atomic agency said Aug 29, amid warnings in Washington that Tehran is better placed to produce the bomb in the future. The quarterly report on Iran’s nuclear work is the first since Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, took office with a goal of bolstering the economy by negotiating an end to Western sanctions on the country. The report comes at a time that the Middle East region is on edge, with Western officials warning Iran against attacking Israel following the assassination of Hamas’s political chief in Tehran earlier this month and working to avoid an all-out regional war. Iran has massively expanded its nuclear program in recent years, following the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018. That accord lifted most international sanctions on Tehran in exchange for tight but temporary constraints on its nuclear work. In recent months, Iranian officials have warned that they have acquired most of the knowledge needed to build a nuclear weapon and said the country could drop its formal stance that it will never produce weapons of mass destruction. Earlier this month, U.S. intelligence agencies issued a new assessment of Tehran’s nuclear work, saying that Iran is pursuing research that has put it in a better position to launch a nuclear-weapons program. Click here to read… [23]

Myanmar Junta Set to Lose Restive State to Ethnic Armed Group

Myanmar’s junta is on the verge of being expelled from a western-most state bordering Bangladesh, according to a new report, marking the one of the biggest military losses since a 2021 coup led to renewed civilian conflict across the country. The Arakan Army has made rapid advances across Rakhine state since November last year and is set to create the single largest area controlled by an ethnic armed group since the coup, the International Crisis Group said in a report on Aug 27. Formed in the borderlands of China, the armed group is responsible for some of the military junta’s most decisive battleground losses over the past year. Their victories are rallying other ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy fighters to dislodge military regime led by coup leader-turned-President Min Aung Hlaing. “The Arakan Army is in the process of carving out a proto-state of over a million people on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border,” International Crisis Group said in the report. “Although the Myanmar military has countered with indiscriminate attacks and a blockade that is causing huge economic distress, the armed group” has pushed on. Other reports show the military has lost control over most of the nation’s townships, and last month it extended emergency rule again as the security situation deteriorates. Click here to read… [24]

Australia Strikes Pacific-Wide Police Deal in Setback for China

Australia has joined with Pacific leaders to announce a major policing initiative in order to boost coordination on domestic security, in a potential blow to China’s efforts to deepen its links in the contested region. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Aug 28 that Australia would spend about A$400 million ($272 million) over five years to create the Pacific Policing Initiative. It’s designed to ensure that “the security of the entire region will be much stronger and will be looked after by ourselves,” he said in a statement. “This will improve capability, cooperation and importantly, interoperability between Pacific police forces,” Albanese said, adding that “sovereign nation states will determine how they participate in this.” Albanese announced the initiative at the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga, alongside the leaders of Fiji, Palau and Papua New Guinea. Under the agreement, Australia will fund four regional police training centers in the Pacific, as well as a “development and coordination hub” based in Brisbane. Pacific nations will also work to create a multi country pool of trained police officers who can be deployed in the event of a domestic crisis or a major event. Tonga’s Prime Minister Hu’akavameiliku said both his country and the broader region were experiencing growing security challenges that crossed borders. Click here to read… [25]

China spent $15.3 billion on Pacific exercises in 2023, internal Taiwan estimates show

China spent about $15 billion, or 7% of its defense budget, on exercises in the Western Pacific in 2023, according to a previously unpublished Taiwanese estimate, showing Beijing’s investment in military activity around Taiwan and its neighbours. The internal research by Taiwan’s armed forces, reviewed by Reuters, offers a rare look into a slice of China’s defense spending as Beijing has ramped up its military presence amid rising tensions in the region. China claims Taiwan as its own and has never renounced the use of force to bring the democratically governed island under its control despite Taiwan’s strong objections. It is also locked in disputes with several countries over sovereignty of large parts of the South China Sea and the East China Sea. “This reveals the logic of allocation of their resources,” said a senior Taiwan official briefed on the research. “They are spending a huge amount of resources trying to gain control of the west of the First Island Chain.” The official, and two other people briefed on the research, declined to be identified for this story because of the sensitivity of the matter. The First Island Chain is a collection of archipelagos running roughly from Indonesia in an arc northeast to Japan, encompassing the South China Sea and East China Sea. In a statement to Reuters, Taiwan’s defense ministry declined to comment on the figures. Click here to read… [26]

Iraq to impose two-day curfew for first census in decades

Iraq will impose a two-day curfew in November for the country’s first census in 27 years, officials said. “[The] curfew will be imposed in all provinces of Iraq on November 20 and 21 to conduct a population census,” Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said in a statement on Sept 01. Local media reports said various measures have been approved for the process, including finalising coordination with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for the training of statistical staff. Also, the process will receive support from multiple ministries in providing classrooms and youth centres for staff training, reports added. Ravaged by decades of conflict and violence, Iraq has postponed a census several times, most notably in 2010 because of tensions over disputed territories. The last general census was held in 1997 in 15 Iraqi provinces – excluding the three northern provinces that make up the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. Iraq has regained some semblance of stability in recent years, despite sporadic violence and political turmoil. Current estimates put the country’s population at about 43 million. Iraqi authorities have partnered with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) for the upcoming census. The initiative “plays a crucial role in equipping Iraq with accurate demographic information, facilitating effective policymaking, and promoting inclusive growth,” the agency has said. In the past, Iraq held a census every 10 years. A count could not be organised in 2007, when the country was embroiled in sectarian violence. Click here to read… [27]

Israelis protest, union calls strike after six more captives killed in Gaza

Tens of thousands of Israelis have hit the streets demanding a ceasefire deal and Israel’s main labour union has called for a strike after six more captives were found dead in Gaza. Scuffles between the protesters and security forces were reported on Sept 01 night in one of the largest anti-government demonstrations in Israel since the Gaza war began nearly 11 months ago. The protesters chanted “Now! Now!” and demanded that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reach a ceasefire with Palestinian group Hamas to bring the remaining captives home. In a statement, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which represents the families of captives held in Gaza, said the death of the six hostages was the direct result of Netanyahu’s failure to secure a deal to halt the fighting and bring their loved ones home. “They were all murdered in the last few days, after surviving almost 11 months of abuse, torture and starvation in Hamas captivity,” the forum said. Gil Dickmann, a cousin of Carmel Gat, whose body was among those returned, urged Israelis to put more pressure on their government. “Take to the streets and shut down the country until everyone returns. They can still be saved,” Dickmann posted on X. Gideon Levy, a columnist with Israel’s Haaretz newspaper, told Al Jazeera that Netanyahu has been defending the right-wing parties in his government that are against any concessions to Hamas. Click here to read… [28]

U.S. military open to escorting Philippine ships in the South China Sea, senior admiral says

The U.S. military is open to consultations about escorting Philippine ships in the disputed South China Sea, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said Aug 27 amid a spike in hostilities between Beijing and Manila in the disputed waters. Adm. Samuel Paparo’s remarks, which he made in response to a question during a news conference in Manila with Philippine Armed Forces chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., provided a glimpse of the mindset of one of the highest American military commanders outside the U.S. mainland on a prospective operation that would risk putting U.S. Navy ships in direct collisions with those of China. Chinese coast guard, navy and suspected militia ships regularly clash with Philippine vessels during attempts to resupply Filipino sailors stationed in parts of the South China Sea claimed by both countries. As these clashes grow increasingly hostile, resulting in injuries to Filipino sailors and damage to their ships, the Philippine government has faced questions about invoking a treaty alliance with Washington. Paparo and Brawner spoke to reporters after an international military conference in Manila organized by the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, at which China’s increasingly assertive actions in the South China Sea were spotlighted. Military and defense officials and diplomats from the U.S. and allied countries attended but there were no Chinese representatives. Click here to read… [29]

North Korean leader supervises test of exploding drones, calls them crucial for war readiness

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised a demonstration of new exploding drones designed to crash into targets and pledged to spur development of such weapons to boost his military’s war readiness, state media said Aug 26. Kim has been flaunting his growing military capabilities amid tensions with Washington and Seoul. North Korean photos of the test showed a white drone with X-shaped tails and wings supposedly crashing into and destroying a target resembling South Korea’s K-2 main battle tank. Most combat drones stand off from targets and attack with missiles. The test, which state media said took place Aug 24, came as the U.S. and South Korean militaries are conducting a large-scale exercise aimed at enhancing their combined capabilities to defend against growing North Korean nuclear threats. The allies said the drills, which continue through Aug 29, are focused on enhancing their readiness against various North Korean threats and would also reflect lessons learned from recent armed conflicts. North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said Aug 24’s test involved various types of drones built to fly different ranges to attack enemy targets on land and sea. It said the drones flew along various routes before accurately hitting test targets. Kim said that global trends in military technologies and modern combat show the importance of drones in war and that the North’s military should be equipped with advanced drones “as early as possible.” Click here to read… [30]

Pope embarks on longest, farthest and most challenging trip to Asia, with China in the background

If any evidence were needed to underscore that Pope Francis’ upcoming trip to Asia and Oceania is the longest, farthest and most challenging of his pontificate, it’s that he’s bringing along his secretaries to help him navigate the four-country program while keeping up with work back home. Francis will clock 32,814 kilometers (20,390 miles) by air during his Sept. 2-13 visit to Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Singapore, far surpassing any of his previous 44 foreign trips and notching one of the longest papal trips ever, both in terms of days on the road and distances traveled. That’s no small feat for a pope who turns 88 in December, uses a wheelchair, lost part of a lung to a respiratory infection as a young man and had to cancel his last foreign trip at the last minute (to Dubai in November to participate in the U.N. climate conference) on doctors’ orders. But Francis is pushing ahead with this trip, originally planned for 2020 but postponed because of COVID-19. He’s bringing along his medical team of a doctor and two nurses and taking the usual health precautions on the ground. But in a novelty, he’s adding his personal secretaries into the traditional Vatican delegation of cardinals, bishops and security. The long trip recalls the globetrotting travels of St. John Paul II, who visited all four destinations during his quarter-century pontificate, though East Timor was an occupied part of Indonesia at the time of his landmark 1989 trip. Click here to read… [31]

Health

Polio vaccine campaign begins in Gaza a day before fighting is expected to pause

A campaign to inoculate children in Gaza against polio and prevent the spread of the virus has begun, the Health Ministry said Aug 31, as Palestinians in the Hamas-governed enclave and the occupied West Bank reeled from Israel's military offensives. Meanwhile, Israel's military late Aug 31 in a terse announcement said it had “located a number of bodies during combat” in Gaza. The army was trying to identify the bodies, including whether they were hostages, but said the process would take several hours. “We ask to refrain from spreading rumors,” it said. There were no further details. A small number of children in Gaza received vaccine doses a day before the large-scale rollout and limited pauses in the fighting agreed to by Israel and the U.N. World Health Organization. Associated Press journalists saw about 10 children receiving doses at Nasser hospital in Khan Younis. “There must be a cease-fire so that the teams can reach everyone targeted by this campaign,” said Dr. Yousef Abu Al-Rish, Gaza's deputy health minister, describing scenes of sewage running through crowded tent camps. Polio is spread through fecal matter. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office in a statement said “Israel will allow a humanitarian corridor only” and “areas will be established that will be safe for administering the vaccines for a few hours.” Healthcare workers in Gaza have warned of the potential for a polio outbreak for months. Click here to read… [32]

Smartphones, sensors aid foreign staff at nursing home in Japan

A nursing home here is using technology tailored for the industry to recruit and retain foreign workers, clear the language barrier and reduce its staff’s workload. Software with voice input that was introduced in January is proving to be a big help at the nonprofit assisted living complex Sawayaka Nursing Villa. Armed with a headset and the app on their smartphones, all a staff member needs to do is say “Hey! Wiz” for the voice recognition program to kick in. “Start recording. Meal--main dish, 50 percent; side dish, 70 percent,” she says in Japanese after checking in on a resident. This verbal shorthand means they finished half of their main dish and 70 percent of their side dish. Caregivers maintain daily logs for each of the facility’s 160 or so elderly residents, including those who stay for only a short period, and share them among the staff. These records cover bathing, bowel movements, functional training and other activities to assess each of their charge’s overall well-being. Favoring audio over written accounts is part of the nursing home’s effort for smoother communication among its caregivers. Many international workers at the facility have N2 certification, the second-highest level of the Japanese Language Proficiency Test (JLPT), a nationwide exam to measure and certify Japanese language skills. Click here to read… [33]