Israel and the HHH- War of Attrition and Revenge

July 31 was the casting date for a much-feared escalation in the Middle East as Israeli leadership acknowledged killing of the Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukr (July 30) but keeping enigmatic silence on the killing of the Hamas top leader and negotiator Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran under the nose of the almighty Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). It happened when the new reformist- conservative Iranian President Dr Pezeshkian was just sworn in who hoped for some improved relationship even with the West. Iranians obviously were livid not only that Haniyeh was killed but killed in Tehran violating their sovereignty. They concluded Israeli hand and vowed revenge including by the 3Hs- Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis and add the Shia militias in Iraq to the list, which makes a powerful and potent mix of resistance groups so called “Axis of Resistance” against their wily enemy -whose very existence is an anathema for them. Major powers came into action.

Exasperated Americans feigned ignorance and called for de-escalation while reiterating their unifocal support to Israel and its right to defend itself. Since then, the grapevine is ripe with the date and time of the Iranian vengeful attacks which has kept Netanyahu and the West on the toes. But Iranians seem to have taken recourse to ‘strategic ambivalence and strategic patience’ since they don’t have to directly get into the act when they have viable proxy cards. The Israeli attack on their embassy in Damascus was another matter and some face saving was warranted and afforded.

One of the ways out was to bring about a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas despite the fact that a more hardline Yahya Sinwar had become the new leader of Hamas and Netanyahu was unwilling to leave his mission ‘Destruction Hamas’ midway and leave Gaza. Yet, Blinken dashed down for his tenth visit to the region, meeting Netanyahu and Qatari Amir and the Egyptian President, marking a unique milestone in shuttle diplomacy. There were doubts that Hamas will agree to participate despite significant losses and extermination of human lives (over 40000 killed) and destruction of Gaza enclave. Both sides love to indulge in changing goalposts by raising new demands and redlines. Tehran also deferred its retaliation subject to the ceasefire talks being held successfully. Biden spoke to Netanyahu and his Qatari and Egyptian counterparts as closure of this war, even if temporarily, will win the democrats and Kamala Harris some States and votes in November elections. Of course, regional escalation will only force them to fight on the side of Israel which could further decimate their electoral chances. Meanwhile, Fatah of Ramallah also joined in with Hamas and others as their leader Khalil Maqdah was eliminated by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). As such West bank has faced its own nemesis during the ongoing Israel Hamas war.

Harris at her nomination Convention in Chicago acknowledged “Israel’s right to defend itself” and Palestinian suffering. She said “What has happened in Gaza over the past ten months is devastating. So many innocent lives lost. Desperate, hungry people fleeing for safety over and over again. The scale of suffering is heartbreaking.” Further adding that “President Biden and I are working to end this war-such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination.” And the presence of CIA Chief at Cairo talks and a harassed Blinken’s frequent visits to the region would attest to that effort. Not an easy task with recalcitrant clients in the bargain whose desires for expanding the remit of negotiations through new demands has been more than evident. Hezbollah has smartly adhered to Biden’s and UNSC’s July 2nd plan and accused Israel of changing tracks. The similar compliment is returned by Netanyahu. Ideally both bask in the glory of shifting sands that provides them the leeway of political survival.

At the same time to put pressure and prove a point Israel and Hezbollah got engaged in heightened volley of bombs, drones and missiles. Netanyahu claimed to have deployed 100 jets to pre-emptively strike on Hezbollah hideouts in southern Lebanon upping the ante, as they had information that Hezbollah will shoot 6000 missiles and drones in Northern Israel from where large number of Israelis have been relocated and even the Ben Gurion airport was partially closed. On July 26, Israeli warplanes launched more than 40 strikes targeting around 17 areas and towns in southern Lebanon in the most intense attack since the clashes began on 8 October, 2023. Hezbollah carried on with its 340 Katyusha missiles and drone attacks claiming to have achieved its objectives of targeting Israeli intelligence and military establishments. They claimed not to have targeted civilians as Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah maintained his threat posturing active claiming the success of the military response to Israel’s assassination of the party’s senior commander, Fuad Shukr, accusing Tel Aviv of “lying and failing.”

As over hundred Israeli hostages remain in the custody of Hamas and other groups in Gaza the public demonstrations against Netanyahu’s handling of the crisis continues unabated. Also, their perception of Government’s handling of Hezbollah threat was poor if one were to believe the survey last week by Israel’s Channel 12 which indicated widespread dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict as well as suspicions over his motives in handling the hostage issue. According to the survey results, 75% of Israelis rated the government’s management of the conflict in northern Israeli with Hezbollah as “very poor.” As the Israeli hardline Minister Ben Gvir called again for prayer by Jews at the Al Aqsa Mosque provoking the radicals and Arabs alike. Fortunately, Netanyahu’s office reiterated the status quo which restricts the non-Muslims praying at the 3rd holiest mosque. "Challenging the status quo on the Temple Mount is a dangerous, unnecessary and irresponsible act. Ben-Gvir's actions endanger the state of Israel and its international status," Defence Minister Yoav Gallant also tweeted.

Across the geographical divide concerns of escalation of the Middle Eastern war were met by the support of their protagonists and benefactors assuring fullest support to each side. Almost a dozen airlines cancelled their flights to Israel and Lebanon. Israeli PM appealed to all their friends to render assistance in the wake of Hezbollah and Iranian threats. Those like Jordan and Lebanon which are going to be impacted more seriously are making appeals to as the Jordanian Dy Pm and FM Ayman Safadi warmed “The brutal Israeli aggression on Gaza is pushing the region towards the abyss of a regional war, and stopping this aggression immediately would defuse the escalating crisis”. Hopefully, a ceasefire deal will be clinched and despite the brinkmanship of State and non-state actors the regionwide escalation will be contained since both sides overtly claim not to want it.

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