Bangladesh, the Sudden Turn of Events: Indian Options

The world watched in horror the looting and plundering of Bangladesh’s Prime Ministers’ official residence and other public properties across the city on 5th August 2024 early evening. Post the stepping down of the Awami League government, the images of statue of national icon Bangabandhu being brought down to the ground, and many more acts of such vandalism will remain etched in memory for long. Inevitably, the attacks on minorities have risen sharply. It arouses skepticism about the situation in Bangladesh and raises the question where is Bangladesh headed? The near total breakdown of law and order raises fears in India and the region. Is Bangladesh the next Pakistan, seems to be ringing in the Indian air. However, the civil society and the student groups have all expressed their strong dislike of these acts of violence, constantly appealing for return to normalcy, while urging all to provide support to the minorities too.

The circumstances that led to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation on the fateful Monday August noon has both an immediate as well as a long-term context. While the immediate sequence of events that led to this was over students protesting over the Liberation War quota. To go back briefly, the 20 years of Awami League government headed by premier Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh has seen it celebrating many milestones, to even become one the three fastest growing nation in Asia during 2022-23 period. The economic growth was phenomenal, visible development was seen all over the nation, and ably supported by adept diplomacy, Bangladesh was poised to play an important role in the region and the Indo-Pacific. But in absence of transparency, accountability and sustained corruption much of the positive experiences unraveled to bring Bangladesh to a weakened state-politically, socially and certainly economically. The economy stands at less than 4 percent GDP growth in first quarter of 2024 from previous highs of over 7 percent, forex down to barely US$ 18 billion, ensuring survival for around three months. More importantly, while pandemic and global wars have often contributed to several economic woes, much of Bangladesh’s economic undoing was its own doing.

The present crisis was one in the making. But the sudden political slide that started as a student protest movement over the quota allocation for government jobs amplified into the darkest phase of Bangladeshi history. Early June this year, the High Court ruled in favour of the re-introduction of 30 percent of quota for Liberation War families bringing the total reservation to 56 percent in a nation that is reeling under highest unemployment. This quota was withdrawn by this government in 2018. From early July, post the University holidays, the students organized peaceful protests. But it was not before long, ignoring the students’ initial 9-point plea, the prime minister in response to a journalist query referred to the students rather derogatorily using the pejorative term Rajakar, while another Awami leader threatened to unleash the Awami League students’ faction on them, that the mood of the movement changed.

The outpouring of students began from Dhaka campus into the streets by 12th July night, they were soon joined by students all across the campus. When the unarmed students were faced by brutal might of the security forces that the nature of the movement changed. The unarmed body of student Abu Sayed in Rangpur that fell to police bullets, on 17 July was the last straw. While the student numbers swelled, rammed up security and para military forces on the streets of Bangladesh led to direct confrontation between those that aligned with Awami league and those that stood with students. Chatra League, the student faction of the ruling party brought out alongside the security forces was another deep cut that left indelible marks on the political landscape. The students by then had moved beyond their initial demands to a single point agenda of removal of the prime minister. The repressive actions of the government turned a quota protests into a large political movement pointing to the deep underlying issues within Bangladesh which were ignored for too long. Post, the losses of innocent hundreds of lives and thousands of injuries, and growing numbers of enraged Bangladeshis on the streets fearless in the wake of state brutality that the Military declined to pursue action against the unarmed civil society, forcing the hands of the prime minister Sheikh Hasina to step down.

Role of External Hand

While there have been several narratives about the role of external players in the student rebellion, suffice to say while there may have been outside hands at work, the numbers that came out in support for the students cannot be doctored or influenced. Media is rife with many conspiracy theories and be that as it may, Bangladeshis from all walks of life joining the protests seems a rather implausible theory to any watcher of the region. It is not unknown in the Bangladeshi political landscape, as elsewhere too for political leaders to be maneuvered and influenced by some external actor, and history is replete with such examples, but the mass movement that Bangladesh just witnessed is essentially an expression of people’s anger, frustration and deep-rooted resentment of the Awami League government’s practices and policies undertaken for the last decade or more. Certainly, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat saw opportunity and joined the movement as did many other miscreants that exists in the society, but it can never be dismissed as any externally guided or doctored movement. All the ingredients required for a mass movement were provided by the political ruling elite. The increasing authoritarian tendencies of the regime was becoming unbearable for a large section of the Bangladeshis. The rampant media and civil society repression inface of continued non-democratic periodic elections did not go down well with the new generation and the students are now retaliating. While many are acting in the heat of the moment, violence by anyone has to be fully rejected and the students will have to be placated to abjure from such vandalism and aggressive behaviour. Certainly, the recent statements from Pakistan expressing solidarity for the students has provided fodder for the gullible. But the miscreants who are on a spree needs to be controlled immediately. The students’ sacrifices should not be diluted because of these acts of violence.

Consolidation of Democracy

As per the latest media reports, Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus has been appointed as the head of the interim government, controversies abound about his acceptability, especially by the Islamists, but that is something Bangladesh will have to decide for themselves. For India, it is going to be a difficult phase to navigate, although there is little clarity about the nature of the government and its tenure. Bangladesh for India is a close and critical neighbour, much of Indian plan in the region has been supported by Bangladesh and their partnership has strengthened ever since 2009 when Sheikh Hasina was ushered in by two thirds majority in an election that also saw the largest voters turn out in Bangladesh. The two neighbours had covered large bilateral grounds over the subsequent years and the two neighbours as reflected in many of their agreements were initiating a robust sub-regionalism through their cross-border transport facilities and building of economic corridors. Indeed, Bangladesh’s economic engagement with India’s Northeast was slowly picking up momentum and the ready-made garment industry found its largest buyer there, while Bangladesh’s ago-based Pran company having reopened up operation in Agartala, has been able to source raw materials from the region and was the first step to building regional value chains which has been envisaged for long by the neighbours. India and Bangladesh partnership is a work in progress and both can benefit to tap on the various economic potential that the subregion offers. India has always been forthcoming about its interests in Bangladesh and similarly Dhaka under a new resurgent democratic political elite will understand the rationale of working with its immediate neighbour. The recalcitrant Bangladesh of 2001 no longer exists and now delivery to its people will be a priority for its upcoming government. In today’s interconnectedness working together as evident in the past, make Indian partnership a critical factor for continued growth and development in Bangladesh. Both sides will benefit from seeking to create mutual opportunities leading to a more favourable future for both sides.

Indeed, the youth of both sides are more politically conscious and well versed in global affairs. Students and youths on both sides are equally driven and motivated to make a better life for themselves, will find synergy to seek to accomplish their dreams and aspirations. While Bangladeshi youths are going to various part of the globe their understanding about India remains limited to perhaps the education sector. Greater exposure to Indian markets, the industry, the opportunities will hold their interests for greater collaborations. India will certainly work well with the new generation of leaders and new aspirants. While there is no denying the historical legacy India and Awami League have shared for over five decades, India has engaged with any legitimate government. The perception of India supporting only one party will now certainly have to be addressed and it would be beneficial for Bangladeshis to understand many of the bilateral agreements that the two sides signed, given the misgivings that have been raised. There was very little to clarify the positions as there was barely any opposition in the parliament to discuss important issues. Hopefully that will now change and the Bangladesh’s democratic traditions will be upheld strongly. For the neighbours, leaving aside the past, shedding the past binary and getting to know each other is important if not imperative. A stable Bangladesh after consolidating their domestic priorities, will certainly turn their attention to foreign policy interests and India as an immediate neighbour will certainly factor in their policy matrix. Given the geographical proximity, and social and cultural commonalities that has thrived between the two sides through the decades, a resurgent, stable democratic Bangladesh that upholds peoples’ choices will invariably be a neighbour of great consequence to India.

(The paper is the author’s individual scholastic articulation. The author certifies that the article/paper is original in content, unpublished and it has not been submitted for publication/web upload elsewhere, and that the facts and figures quoted are duly referenced, as needed, and are believed to be correct). (The paper does not necessarily represent the organisational stance... More >>