Unstable Bangladesh: Bad News for India

After the momentous and historical day of 16 December 1971 when India freed East Pakistan from the inhuman clutches of Pakistan leading to the birth of Bangladesh, no other day in the history of Bangladesh has, so far, assumed such importance - albeit for totally different reasons - than the events of 05 August 2024. Ironically, on this day the present day detractors, both inside that nation including the Bangladesh Army, the communal Jamat-Islami and the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) cadres and possibly even some forces from abroad, compelled the secular, India friendly, premier of Bangladesh, Begum Sheikh Hasina, to flee the country. That Sheikh Hasina has been accorded temporary asylum in New Delhi prior to her likely settling down in some Western nation, should be no surprise as she and the Indian leadership have maintained very cordial relations.

Meanwhile, the Bangladesh Army who were the final arbiters to send Hasina packing, have been working towards establishing an Interim Government for the next three months before general elections take place. Renowned Nobel Laureate Mohd Yunus, reportedly a pro-US economist, flew to Dhaka from Paris to lead the Interim Government. Importantly, former PM Begum Khaleda Zia, leader of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), has also been released from prison as have been a few Jamaat-e-Islami leaders. The BNP is pronouncedly pro-Pakistan and generally considered anti-India.

Sheikh Hasina had returned to power for the fourth consecutive term in January 2024 in an election which some Opposition parties including the BNP had refused to contest claiming it was rigged. In many ways, according to some observers, Sheikh Hasina is herself to blame for the mess currently Bangladesh is in; that requires no elaboration. Some neutral strategic analysts have labeled her as a “megalomaniac” and “dictatorial”. The law-and-order situation has completely broken down in that nation and large scale vandalism goes on, even police stations have been burnt and dozens of policemen lynched. Regrettably, many Hindus have been murdered including few of them who were Awami League leaders, and dozens of Hindu temples been torched. The overall law-and-order having broken down, it portends extremely uncertain times for Bangladesh in the immediate future. Sad and surprising has been the fact that even Bangladesh’s Father of the Nation and liberator Sheikh Mujibur Rehman’s statues have been pulled down by some radical elements without any protests from the saner elements in that nation. The Indira Gandhi Cultural Center which perpetuates the memory of India’s Prime Minister Indira Gandhi for her stellar role in 1971 in Bangladesh’s liberation struggle too was not spared and destroyed by anti-India elements in Dhaka the other day.

How would the region, especially India, be impacted owing to this alarming and unforeseen political instability is a matter plaguing the minds of the Indian establishment and other observers. That all the nations and institutions inimical to Indian interests in the region have attained both notoriety and success cannot be denied. The names of China and its ever willing proxy Pakistan, along with its sinister Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) , the BNP and the ultra-radical Jamat-e-Islami come straight to mind. Somewhere, even the hidden hand of the US in the build up to the current crisis has been mentioned by some analysts as US has, reportedly, an entirely different strategic geopolitical objective in mind for this region.

Since its emergence as a sovereign nation in December 1971, Bangladesh, apart from some minor hiccups off-and-on, during the tenures of the Awami Party has had exceptionally warm relations with India in the areas of border security, river waters distribution, communications connectivity, settlement of the land boundaries, provision of power and electricity, and importantly, trade ties which have been on the ascendant. Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia and India is the second largest trade partner of Bangladesh in Asia. In FY 2023-24, the total bilateral trade between the two nations was USD 14.01 billion. With the ouster of Sheikh Hasina now, these trade ties are bound to be hit. That China will, in all likelihood, endeavour to step into the resultant vacuum is a foregone conclusion. After the law-and-order situation cools down in Bangladesh, India must make all efforts to revive its trade ties with Bangladesh and impress upon the Bangladeshis to be wary of China’s debt trap diplomacy and devious financial dealings.

More importantly, India has to be watchful of the security repercussions of the current crisis in Bangladesh. India will have to ensure that large scale exodus of Bangladesh‘s minority community, namely the Hindus, does not take place to India. For that not only sealing of the nearly 4000 km long international border with Bangladesh will have to be carried out but the Interim Government in Dhaka to be interacted with effectively and saner elements in Bangladesh’s civil society should be approached. India will have to be more than vigilant in its restive North-Easter (NE) states so that some radicalized elements from Bangladesh, aided and abetted by China and Pakistan, are not allowed to create mischief there. For that, the Centre must take all political parties in confidence who have some hold among the various tribes in NE. Synergy, both at the Centre and states levels will have to be ensured to combat this formidable threat gaining momentum in our NE regions. The Centre will have to act with firmness and sensitivity while striving to achieve inter-tribal harmony in this region.

As India has correctly granted temporary asylum to Sheikh Hasina on humanitarian grounds, it will have to now employ all its diplomatic and economic prowess to ensure sound relations with the emerging Bangladesh dispensation. She must also step up re-energising her relations with the powerful Bangladesh Army and utilize the Armed Forces to do that; military diplomacy has its own value and weight. As the overall situation in Bangladesh is “evolving”, India too must work out its various options to tackle all situations which might emerge. The sinister nexus of China and Pakistan has to be thwarted with determination before India’s East becomes another headache to add to our manifold security problems. Equally relevant is the fact that for Bangladesh’s own economic progress, India is more than important - a fact which Bangladesh and its economist premier would know it better!

It has been encouraging to note the Centre has taken all political parties on board and the Opposition too is rallying behind the Government to evolve a national consensus to face the consequences arising from the current crisis in Bangladesh. This is truly a testing time for India’s statecraft and genius.

(The paper is the author’s individual scholastic articulation. The author certifies that the article/paper is original in content, unpublished and it has not been submitted for publication/web upload elsewhere, and that the facts and figures quoted are duly referenced, as needed, and are believed to be correct). (The paper does not necessarily represent the organisational stance... More >>