Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (15-21 July 2024)

Economic

China’s third plenum vows to support ‘capable’ private sector to lead tech innovation

In its quest to break out of tightening containment efforts by the United States, Beijing has vowed to give more room and better resources to the private sector to help China achieve technological breakthroughs. It was one of the measures announced to support the private sector included in the 22,000-word resolution document unveiled on July 21 following the conclusion of the third plenum last week. “[It is necessary] to support capable private enterprises to take the lead in undertaking major national technological research tasks, and further open up major national scientific research infrastructure to private firms,” said the decisions endorsed by the Communist Party’s 20th Central Committee. The document also covered a wide range of reform objectives for the next five years in areas including economic development, science and technology, human capital, defence, social security and ideology. And while the endorsement for the private sector is barely new – similar ones were made in government documents last year or even earlier – the reiteration highlighted the importance Beijing has placed on boosting sentiment among the key sector, while also upholding national security, analysts said. Click here to read… [2]

Rare-Earth Prices Are in the Doldrums. China Wants to Keep Them That Way

The U.S. and Europe would love to cut their dependence on China for rare earths. Standing in the way of that ambition are low prices and Beijing’s willingness to throw its weight around to keep the market down. Rare-earth prices have plummeted this year and are now hovering at roughly three-year lows. China’s overproduction, with its increasingly negative impact on industry profits, only makes sense as part of a broader economic strategy. The country produces roughly 60% of the world’s mined rare-earth minerals. In recent years, it has also tightened its grip on the entire magnet supply chain: It controls 91% of refining activity, 87% of oxide separation and 94% of magnet production, according to the Centre for European Policy Studies. That gives it considerable sway over what happens to rare-earth prices. One theory is that China has deliberately pushed prices lower to help buttress its green-energy industries. The country is willing to be a loss leader in parts of the value chain to help downstream ambitions such as exporting EVs into international markets, says Ryan Castilloux, managing director of Adamas Intelligence. Lithium, a key input in EV batteries, is another market that China stands accused of keeping depressed with uneconomic mining operations. Click here to read… [3]

The EU Is Facing a Looming Gas Supply Crisis

The European Union (EU) targets a ban on Russian fuel imports by 2027. However, nearly half of Russia's pipeline gas supplies to Europe and Moldova are still passing through Ukraine, totalling 13.7 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2023. As the EU discusses the possibility of involving Azerbaijan in a future transit deal, the current five-year gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine is set to expire by the end of 2024, leading to concerns about the future flow of these gas volumes. Rystad Energy predicts that Russia's gas will need to be rerouted to Europe through alternative paths, requiring an additional 7.2 Bcm per year of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to replace the gas transiting Ukraine. Supply disruptions may occur sooner than initially expected, as indicated by the Austrian company OMV’s market warning in May. Slovakia, Austria and Moldova are the European nations most dependent on transit volumes, importing about 3.2 Bcm, 5.7 Bcmand 2.0 Bcm, respectively, in 2023. Last year, Russian gas passing through Ukraine supplied EU countries via entry points in Slovakia and Moldova. Moldova is adjusting its supply while having agreed with Ukraine on a continuous flow of Russian gas until the end of 2025, largely supplied to the pro-Russia separatist region of Transnistria. Click here to read… [4]

Saudi Arabia Enters JVs With Chinese Solar Firms

Saudi Arabia has entered into joint ventures with two Chinese solar firms to build solar plants in the country worth some $3 billion, highlighting the oil-rich kingdom's campaign to boost renewable power production. In the first JV, publicly traded, China-based Jinko Solar has announced that it will form a joint venture with Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund and a privately owned Saudi renewable firm to build a solar cell and module manufacturing facility for a total investment of about $1 billion. The project will be financed through a combination of internal and external financing. Renewable Energy Localization Company, a unit of the Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia and Vision Industries would hold 40% and 20% equity interests in the JV, respectively, while Jinko Solar's Middle East unit would hold the rest of the equity interest. According to Jinko Solar, the facility is expected to hit an annual production capacity of 10 gigawatts for high-efficiency solar cells and solar modules. In another JV, the Saudi sovereign wealth fund Public will partner with TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology Co., the world's second-largest maker of solar wafers, and Vision Industries Co. on a $2.08 billion plant. Click here to read… [5]

Israeli Strike Sets Yemen's Oil Port Ablaze

For the first time since the Israel–Hamas war erupted last October, the Israeli military has deployed fighter jets to strike Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. This action follows an incident where the rebels penetrated Tel Aviv airspace with a kamikaze drone (also for the first time) on July 19, resulting in the death of one civilian. Houthi official Mohammed Abdulsalam posted on social media that a "brutal Israel aggression against Yemen" had just occurred. He noted that the airstrikes hit "fuel storage facilities and a power plant" in the Yemeni port of Hodeida "to pressure Yemen to stop supporting" Palestinians in the Gaza war. Axios reports US and Israeli officials confirmed the Israeli Air Force strikes in retaliation for the Houthi drone strike in Tel Aviv on July 19 morning, killing one and wounding eight more. We noted that this Houthi drone strike risked "sparking escalation of warfare between Yemen's Houthis, Hezbollah, and the State of Israel." "This attack makes it crystal clear to the Houthis and Iranians that strategic, energy-linked economic targets are fair game in retaliation for attacks on Israeli strategic locations like Tel Aviv," Scott Modell, CEO of Rapidan Energy Group, tells us. Click here to read… [6]

Azerbaijan May Export Gas Via Ukraine After Russia Deal Ends

Azerbaijan has been approached by Ukraine and the European Union to supply natural gas to Europe via Ukraine after an existing contract with Russia expires at the end of the year, President Ilham Aliyev said. Talks continue with the authorities in Ukraine and the EU as well as with Russia and all sides seem to be interested in continuing the supplies, Aliyev said at a conference July 20 in the town of Shusha. “We will help if we can,” he said. “I think it’s possible to prolong this deal.” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said earlier this month his country is in talks to send natural gas from Azerbaijan to the EU as it seeks to maintain its role as a transit country and help ensure the energy security of its western neighbours. A deal to replace Russian gas with Azerbaijani supplies is “one of the proposals” currently being discussed, Zelenskiy told Bloomberg in an interview. The EU has tried to wean itself off Russian gas since the invasion of Ukraine, but some European states continue to receive it through a pipeline that crosses Ukraine. The agreement that covers the transit arrangement expires at the end of 2024, and with war still raging, many market watchers expect Russian gas flows will come to a halt. Click here to read… [7]

Bangladesh Court Scraps Most Job Quotas After Deadly Clashes

Bangladesh’s top court abolished most of a controversial government jobs quota system after deadly protests by students across the country in the past week. The Supreme Court nullified a lower court’s decision on the jobs policy, local TV channels reported July 21, sharply reducing the quotas for government roles. The protesters had opposed an earlier decision to reserve up to 30% of the jobs for family members of veterans who fought in Bangladesh’s war of independence in 1971. At least 151 people were killed in clashes between protesters and police in the past week, according to Agence France-Presse. The Supreme Court said July 21 that 93% of government jobs will be appointed on merit. The quota will apply to only 7% of jobs. Of that, 5% will go to family members of war veterans and 2% will be reserved for disadvantaged groups, such as ethnic minorities. The government imposed a curfew on July 19 night and deployed the army on the streets, with police given a “shoot-on-sight” order to quell the violence. Internet connection across the country was also cut since July 18. The government declared public holidays on July 21 and July 22, effectively closing government and private offices. Click here to read… [8]

Clearing Gaza rubble could take 15 years, UN agency says

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) estimates that clearing the Gaza Strip of the rubble caused by Israel’s latest war on the Palestinian enclave will take 15 years. The agency on July 15 said the cleanup would require the removal of 40 million tonnes of rubble, citing an assessment by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). “Debris poses a deadly threat for people in the Gaza Strip as it can contain unexploded ordnance and harmful substances,” UNRWA said, adding that its removal would require more than 100 trucks and cost more than $500m. The UNEP said some of the debris is contaminated with asbestos, a toxic mineral that causes lung diseases, including cancer. It added that human remains are buried in a vast quantity of building debris. By comparison, during the 2014 Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, about 2.4 million tonnes of debris were removed. The UNEP estimated that the amount of debris in the Gaza Strip is “13 times more than the combined sum of all debris generated by other conflicts in Gaza since 2008”. More than nine months into Israel’s war on Gaza, vast tracts of the enclave lie in ruins amid a crippling blockade of food, clean water and medicine. Last month, Israel’s Army Radio, quoting military officials, said about 50,000 bombs had been dropped on Gaza by Israeli warplanes since October 7, adding that 2,000 to 3,000 bombs did not explode. Click here to read… [9]

Libya, Tunisia urge Europe to increase aid to help tackle migration crisis

Representatives from 28 African and European countries have met in Libya’s capital, Tripoli, to discuss ways to address irregular migration. In his opening remarks at the beginning of the Trans-Mediterranean Migration Forum on July 17, Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah said countries “have a moral responsibility” towards the people “who cross the desert and the sea” hoping to reach Europe. The North African country is a main departure point for refugees and migrants, mostly from sub-Saharan African countries, risking dangerous sea journeys to seek better lives. The United Nations has registered more than 20,000 deaths and disappearances in the central Mediterranean since 2014, making it one of the most perilous migrant crossings in the world. In recent years, the European Union has increased efforts to reduce migration, including by providing equipment and financial support to the Libyan Coast Guard, a quasi-military organisation linked to militias accused of abuses and other crimes. As a result, many have found themselves stranded in Libya, often held in detention in conditions that rights groups describe as inhumane. The International Organization for Migration said in May that there were more than 706,000 migrants in Libya at the start of the year, but Libyan officials say the actual number exceeds two million. Click here to read… [10]

Major global IT outage grounds planes and blocks media worldwide

Disruption to air traffic control systems is being reported around the world. Preliminary reports say a computer glitch may be causing the problem. Issues have arisen in the US, Spain, Germany, Australia, and elsewhere, with authorities forced to cancel take-offs and landings due to safety concerns. The outage was first reported about midnight CET on July 18 night/19. The failure may have been caused by a software update that locks Microsoft operating systems and is reportedly not restricted to airlines. Some banks, emergency services, broadcasters, and financial institutions are also said to have been affected. Computers using Windows 10 OS are reportedly crashing and showing “the blue screen of death” (BSOD) after an update for a security product provided by the firm CrowdStrike. The company is reportedly working on resolving the issue. Brody Nisbet, CrowdStrike’s chief threat hunter, has offered a workaround to deal with what he called a “faulty channel file” related to the Falcon Sensor cybersecurity app. CrowdStrike is a company based in Austin, Texas arguably best known for being hired by the Democratic National Committee to analyze the alleged hack on its servers during the 2016 presidential election campaign. The firm concluded that Russia was responsible, setting the stage for the ‘Russiagate’ claims that Donald Trump had colluded with Moscow to beat Hillary Clinton. Click here to read… [11]

World’s biggest alcohol market revealed

China led the way in global alcohol sales in 2022, a new study by the World Spirits Alliance (WSA) has found. Overall, the spirits industry contributed $730 billion to global GDP and supported 36 million jobs worldwide, the WSA said. In its ‘Spirits: Global Economic Impact Study 2024’ report, the WSA said the spirits sector plays a key role in “driving economic growth, generating significant tax revenues and creating millions of jobs around the world.” China topped the rating with a market worth $215 billion, according to the report, which ranks countries by alcohol sales volumes. The US was next on the list with more than $60 billion. India and Russia shared third place in terms of spirits sales volumes with around $20 billion each, the Geneva-based WSA said. The industry generated $390 billion in tax revenue in 2022, the equivalent of a top 20 global economy. Manufacturers in the sector spent some $120 billion with their suppliers, more than half of which went directly to supporting agriculture. “Notably, more than half of the spirits sold globally are now at the premium level or above, proof that our consumers are embracing the ‘drink less, but better’ philosophy,” Philippe Schaus, CEO of Moёt Hennessy and president of the WSA noted. Click here to read… [12]

Russia to launch Starlink-style internet network – media

Russia is planning to simplify satellite access to high-speed internet for users on the country's extensive public transport network, the Izvestia newspaper reported on July 16, citing official documents. Access will reportedly be provided by operators of new satellite systems in non-geostationary orbit, allowing private users or a transport company to purchase a transmitter-receiver that will connect them to the internet after installing it in a car, a plane, or a train carriage. In May, Russian Railways signed a cooperation agreement on the application of satellite technologies with the Russian space company BURO 1440. Under the deal, the parties will develop digital services based on low-orbit satellites and create popular IT solutions for industry. “Services based on low-orbit satellite communications will be in demand both in the passenger and cargo transportation throughout Russia, including for the operation of unmanned vehicles,” Evgeny Charkin, director of information technologies at Russian Railways, told the outlet. The company is planning to begin testing the approach as soon as next year, he added. At the same time, Maksut Shadaev, the head of Russia’s Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media, said Wi-Fi will be available on-board Russian aircraft starting from 2028. Earlier this year, the minister announced that Russia is planning to launch 737 low-orbit satellites by 2030 to improve terrestrial internet speeds. Click here to read… [13]

China asks WTO to set up panel for U.S. EV subsidies dispute

China has requested the World Trade Organization set up an expert panel to help settle a dispute over electric vehicle subsidies under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, the country's commerce ministry said on July 15. The world's No. 2 economy opened the WTO dispute in late March after the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden passed the IRA, a wide-ranging law that provides billions of dollars in tax credits to help consumers buy EVs and companies to produce renewable energy, as the White House looks to decarbonize the U.S. power sector. China has failed to reach a solution with the U.S. through consultations that would safeguard the rights and interests of its EV industry, the ministry said in its statement, and so is advancing its case at the WTO. The IRA "excludes products from WTO members such as China, artificially sets trade barriers, and pushes up the costs of green energy transition," China's commerce ministry said. "We urge the U.S. to abide by WTO rules and stop abusing its industrial policies to undermine international cooperation on climate change," China said. Click here to read… [14]

U.S. approaches Indonesia to join Mineral Security Partnership

The U.S. has approached Indonesia about joining a multinational partnership to boost the Southeast Asian nation's environmental standards as the two countries discuss a critical minerals deal, a senior U.S. official said on July 15. U.S. Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Jose Fernandez spoke to the Indonesian government about the Mineral Security Partnership, a collaboration of 14 countries and the European Union, during his visit to Jakarta this week. The MSP, whose objective is to accelerate development of sustainable critical minerals supply chains and facilitate financial and diplomatic support, would be an opportunity to improve environmental standards and governance in Indonesia's mineral sector, he told a press conference in Jakarta. Indonesia, which has rich reserves of minerals such as nickel, copper and bauxite, is keen to promote itself as a production hub for batteries and electric vehicles. The nation has massively expanded its nickel processing industry since it banned exports of unprocessed ore in 2020, but environmentalists have blamed the industry for deforestation, water and air pollution caused by smelters. Click here to read… [15]

U.S.-Japan Patriot missile production plan hits Boeing component roadblock

A U.S. plan to use Japanese factories to boost production of Patriot air defense missiles - used by Ukraine to defend against Russian attacks - is being delayed by a shortage of a critical component manufactured by Boeing, four sources said. Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) already makes about 30 PAC-3 missiles each year under license from defense contractor Lockheed Martin and can increase that number to about 60, two Japanese government officials and two industry sources told Reuters. The U.S. hopes to increase production from about 500 a year to more than 750 per year globally as soon as possible, a person familiar with the program said. But no expansion at all will be possible in Japan without additional supplies of the missiles' seekers, which guide them in the final stages of flight, the officials and industry sources said. "It could take several years before MHI is able to raise output" because of the shortage, said one of the industry sources, who like the others declined to be identified because they are not authorized to speak to the media. The production snag in Japan shows the challenges Washington faces in plugging industrial help from its global allies into its complex supply chains. Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

China’s third plenum shows it is ‘not in the mood’ to slow down on nuclear arms

China’s third plenum shows it is “not in the mood” to restrain its nuclear weapons capability as it learns from Russia’s deterrence strategy in Ukraine, observers said after a key policy meeting of the ruling Communist Party. However, they also warned about the risks of a nuclear arms race with the United States as Beijing sought “respect” for its core interests, especially Taiwan. During the party’s third plenum last week, the Central Committee pledged to “speed up the development of strategic deterrence forces”, according to a detailed document of the committee’s decisions released on July 21. The expression is generally taken to refer to nuclear prowess. In order to develop a “new framework of [military] services and arms”, China would accelerate its “strategic deterrence forces, develop new-domain forces with new combat capabilities, while … [strengthening] traditional combat forces”, the document said. Those are among a range of measures, from socioeconomic to military, to be realised by 2029 – when the People’s Republic celebrates its 80th anniversary. China has rapidly expanded its nuclear arsenal in recent years. In 2021, President Xi Jinping made his first call to “speed up the creation of a high-quality strategic deterrence and joint combat system”. Click here to read… [17]

China suspends arms control talks with Washington

China has frozen arms control talks with the US in response to Washington’s continued weapons sales to Taiwan, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has said. The US and China held a long-awaited round of nuclear non-proliferation talks in November, the first such meeting since 2018. While the talks produced no concrete results, they were seen as a crucial step in defusing tensions between the two superpowers, after Beijing severed almost all military communication with Washington a year earlier, over then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Speaking at a press conference in Beijing on July 17, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that China would not discuss a new round of consultations with the US. “The responsibility fully lies with the US,” Lin explained. “Over the past weeks and months, despite China’s firm opposition and repeated protest, the US has continued to sell arms to Taiwan and done things that severely undermine China’s core interests and the mutual trust between China and the US.” “This has seriously compromised the political atmosphere for continuing the arms control consultations,” he said. The US State Department has authorized more than a billion dollars’ worth of weapons sales to Taiwan since the last round of US-China arms control talks, according to figures from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency. Click here to read… [18]

White House should say if Russia shares US weapons information with China: Congress

Leaders of a congressional committee on China are calling on the White House to clarify whether Moscow is sharing information with Beijing on how to neutralise US weapons used in the Ukraine war. In a letter to National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Representatives John Moolenaar, the Michigan Republican who is the chairman of the House select committee on China, and Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois, the panel’s senior Democrat, contend that the Russian military has shown significant effectiveness in undermining several US weapons systems. Acknowledging that some of the systems are outdated, the legislators contended that even the most advanced weapons sent to help Ukraine defend itself have failed in the field. They now seek to learn whether this success could be due to information and technology shared by China as part of its “no-limits partnership” with Moscow. “The PRC has become a ‘decisive enabler’ of the Russian war in Ukraine,” the legislators wrote. “As one administration official disclosed, the PRC is ‘90 per cent’ of the reason Russia has been able to sustain its war effort and economy, particularly in the face of Western sanctions.” The representatives accuse Beijing of supplying “significant amounts of microelectronics, dual-use equipment, imagery and other tools to support [Russia’s] war machine”, as well as helping with space technologies and satellites. Click here to read… [19]

U.S. Launches Effort to Stop Russia from Arming Houthis with Antiship Missiles

U.S. intelligence agencies are warning that Russia might arm Houthi militants in Yemen with advanced antiship missiles in retaliation for the Biden administration’s support for Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with U.S. weapons. The new intelligence comes as the top U.S. Middle East commander recently advised in a classified letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that military operations in the region are “failing” to deter Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and that a broader approach is needed, according to U.S. officials. The White House has launched a confidential push to try to stop Moscow from delivering the missiles to the Iranian-backed Houthis, who have been attacking shipping in the Red Sea for eight months in a show of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. The Houthi threat was highlighted early July 18 local time when an armed drone that the Israeli military said was launched from Yemen struck Tel Aviv, the militant group’s first successful targeting of the city since the beginning of the Gaza war. One person was killed and several people were injured by the blast, which hit an apartment near a U.S. diplomatic building, authorities said. Click here to read… [20]

Trump names running mate

Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for US president in the upcoming November election, has tapped JD Vance as his running mate. The announcement was made on the first day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. “After lengthy deliberation and thought, and considering the tremendous talents of many others, I have decided that the person best suited to assume the position of Vice President of the United States is Senator J.D. Vance of the Great State of Ohio,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on July 15 evening. James David “JD” Vance is currently the Republican senator from Ohio. He was elected in 2022 to replace the retiring GOP Senator Rob Portman. After graduating from high school, Vance enlisted in the US Marine Corps and served as a combat correspondent with the 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing, on deployment in Iraq. He later got a law degree from Yale, but gained national attention for his 2016 memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, in which he wrote about his childhood and the family values of Appalachian Americans. The Washington Post called him the “voice of the Rust Belt,” referring to the former industrial heartland of America that fell victim to the economic realities of globalization. Click here to read… [21]

U.S., Japan to hold high-level security talks on nuclear deterrence

Foreign and defense ministers from Japan and the United States will hold security talks on July 28 that for the first time will cover “extended deterrence,” a term used to describe the U.S. commitment to use its nuclear forces to deter attacks on allies. While the pair have discussed the issue at lower levels before, the talks will elevate a subject that is sensitive in Japan, which has pushed for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and is the only country to have suffered atomic bomb attacks. Washington and Tokyo in April announced an historic upgrade to the U.S.-Japan alliance, first signed in 1951, as the allies look to deter what they see as rising regional threats from China, Russia and North Korea. “In the face of growing unprecedented threats in the region, the United States and Japan are going to demonstrate in a responsible way how we will stand up and ensure not just the defense of Japan but also our contribution to regional security,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink said ahead of the talks due to take place in Japan. “Our security treaty commitments to our Japanese allies are ironclad and we’re committed to using all means at America’s disposal, including nuclear, to make sure that we meet those commitments. Click here to read… [22]

Bangladesh Prefers India Over China in $1 Billion River Project

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said her government would prefer neighbouring India execute a $1 billion river development project, a move that would soothe New Delhi’s security concerns. “China is ready, but I want India to do the project,” Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina told reporters at a press conference in Dhaka on July 14. China and India both want to execute the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration — a Dhaka-led initiative to better manage the river’s waters — as the two nations vie for influence in neighbouring Bangladesh. The project to develop the river basin of 414 km (257.25 miles) long Teesta River that flows from India into Bangladesh figured prominently in talks during Hasina’s visit to New Delhi in June. The two countries share numerous rivers that flow from the Himalayas into the Bay of Bengal. An agreement on sharing the river’s water was reached in 2011 but could not be sealed after the eastern Indian state of West Bengal, through which the river flows before it enters Bangladesh, objected to the deal. As India has dithered over resolving the issue, China stepped in with its proposal. New Delhi responded earlier this year with its own offer amid security concerns about Chinese engineers working close to its borders. Click here to read… [23]

Biden’s Australia-UK Arms Deal Facing Pressure Over Delay Fears

When Joe Biden announced it in 2021, the surprise deal to share submarine and arms technology with the UK and Australia was meant to establish a generation-defining new alliance aimed at hemming in China. But three years later, critics argue the Aukus partnership has made little progress. It faces questions in all three countries over when it will be able to deliver. Even supporters acknowledge that Aukus, which is meant to link the allies for decades to come, needs to show some tangible results before the end of this year - with elections coming up in two of the three partners - if it is to succeed. Key to the deal is a plan to sell US nuclear-powered attack submarines - the crown jewels of American defense technologies, invulnerable even to China’s latest missiles - to replace Australia’s aging boats and project power under the Pacific. But US shipyards, racing to catch up with a fivefold increase in production as Washington modernizes its own fleet after decades of post-Cold-War neglect, are already running years behind schedule even without the additional demand. Under the Aukus agreement, Canberra is supposed to get its first US-made subs sometime after 2032. Click here to read… [24]

Israel’s Knesset votes to reject Palestinian statehood

Israel’s parliament has passed a resolution that overwhelmingly rejected the establishment of a Palestinian state, Israeli media reported. The resolution passed in the Knesset with 68 votes in favour and just nine against it early on July 18. It said that a Palestinian state would pose “an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens, perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and destabilize the region”. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition with far-right parties co-sponsored the resolution. Opposition leader Yair Lapid’s centre-left party left the session to avoid supporting the statement, despite previously saying he favoured a two-state solution, the Times of Israel newspaper reported. Mustafa Barghouti, the secretary-general of the Palestinian National Initiative, slammed the passing of the resolution. “No Zionist party from both the government and the opposition voted against the resolution,” he wrote on X. “This resolution represents a rejection of peace with Palestinians and an official declaration of the death of [the] Oslo agreement,” Barghouti posted. The Oslo Accords, which were first signed between Palestinian and Israeli leaders in 1993, called for a viable and sovereign Palestinian state living side by side with an Israeli state. But Israel has continued to adopt policies such as building illegal settlements on Palestinian lands across the occupied West Bank and a complete blockade of Gaza. Click here to read… [25]

Israel minister demands West Bank annexation if UN court rules against it

Hardline Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called on the prime minister to annex the occupied West Bank if the International Court of Justice (ICJ) rules Israeli settlements are illegal this week. Smotrich told reporters, “No one will move the people of Israel from their land”, the Times of Israel quoted him as saying on July 16. The UN’s top court is expected to deliver a non-binding ruling on the legal ramifications of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories on July 18. “I hereby call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – if the International Court of Justice in The Hague does decide that the settlement enterprise is illegal – respond to them with a historic decision of applying sovereignty to the territories of the homeland,” said Smotrich. The far-right minister also promised to “thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state through massive construction, regulating settlements, building roads and other measures in the field” – all moves illegal under international law. Fifty-two countries presented arguments at the ICJ, also known as the World Court, about the legal consequences of Israel’s actions in the occupied territories in February, after the UN General Assembly asked it in 2022 for an advisory opinion. Click here to read… [26]

EU rejects Orban’s Ukraine peace proposals – Reuters

European Council President Charles Michel has rejected Hungary’s proposals to end the Ukraine conflict, Reuters reported on July 16. Michel has publicly criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who recently visited Kiev, Moscow, and Beijing as part of a “peace mission.” In a letter to Orban, Michel reportedly told the Hungarian leader that he had no EU mandate to negotiate on the conflict. “The rotating Presidency of the Council [that Hungary holds] has no role in representing the Union on the international stage and received no European Council mandate to engage on behalf of the Union,” Reuters quoted Michel as writing. The message came in response to a letter sent by Orban to EU leaders last week, in which he outlined the results of his negotiations with the Ukrainian, Russian, and Chinese leaderships, put forward proposals to end the conflict, and gave his take on Washington’s foreign policy following a visit to the US. Orban suggested “reopening direct lines of diplomatic communication with Russia” while maintaining high-level contact with Kiev and conducting talks with China, which could act as a mediator. In response, Michel said that “no discussion about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine,” and claimed that Brussels had “consistently sought to build broad international support for a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace.” Click here to read… [27]

New players emerge in fighting in Myanmar’s northeast, as powerful ethnic militias intervene

Recently renewed combat in northeastern Myanmar between troops of the military government and ethnic minority militias has in the past few days become more complicated, as two minority groups not previously involved in the fighting stepped into the fray, claiming to act as a third force for stability. The intervention of the powerful fighting forces of the United Wa State Army and the Shan State Army-North highlights tensions among the various ethnic minority guerrilla groups who have been fighting for decades for greater autonomy from Myanmar’s central government. While many of the groups have alliances with the pro-democracy resistance forces that arose to fight military rule after the army ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, they prioritize their own goals, which include control over territory. The focus of every group is now on Lashio, which is about 210 kilometres (130 miles) northeast of Mandalay, the country’s second-largest city and headquarters of the northeastern military command of Myanmar’s ruling generals. Two ethnic armed groups, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, or TNLA, and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, last week had been advancing on Lashio, the biggest city in northern Shan state. The TNLA represents the Ta’ang or Palaung ethnic minority, and the MNDAA is a military force of the Kokang minority, who are ethnic Chinese. Click here to read… [28]

Nepal coalition to amend constitution, change electoral system

A new coalition government came to power in Nepal when pro-China leader K. P. Sharma Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and Sher Bahadur Deuba, an ally of India, of the Nepali Congress entered into a power-sharing agreement to amend the constitution to change the electoral system and bring stability to the country. Oli was appointed prime minister on July 14, a few days after his predecessor, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, lost a parliamentary vote of confidence and was ousted. The new coalition came to power on July 15. Nepal has a mixed electoral system -- partly proportional representation and partly first-past-the-post -- to elect members to parliament. This system was brought in to encourage federalism and ensure representation for minorities and marginalized groups, including women, Dalits, and Muslims. But the big political parties feel this gives smaller parties too much power and opportunity to shift allegiances, contributing to instability. The current system was adopted after a new constitution was written in 2015 and brought into force two years later. Now the bigger parties are demanding a constitutional amendment to create a first-past-the-post voting system that would curb the power of small parties and, they argue, ensure political stability. Click here to read… [29]

Philippines and China bet on hotlines to avoid South China Sea clashes

The Philippines and China are working on an agreement to allow direct lines of communication between their leaders, foreign ministries and coast guards as tensions rise in the South China Sea, according to a document seen by Nikkei Asia. Representatives of the countries met on July 2 to find ways to manage maritime tensions. The document details an arrangement that would provide "several channels for communication" on maritime issues between Manila and Beijing. Once a memorandum of understanding is concluded, these lines of communications would connect representatives of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the countries' foreign ministries and the nations' coast guards. "The DFA is in discussions with the Chinese side on the guidelines that will govern the implementation of this Arrangement," the document says, referring to the Philippines' Department of Foreign Affairs. The document appears to be intended to update officials in Manila on what the two sides have agreed to so far. In recent months, China has jacked up maritime tensions by disrupting rotational resupply missions to Philippine outposts in the West Philippine Sea, a term Manila uses for waters it deems to be within its exclusive economic zone. On June 17, Chinese Coast Guard personnel boarded a Philippine inflatable boat brandishing knives, machetes and other weapons. In the encounter, a Philippine Navy serviceman lost his thumb. Click here to read… [30]

South China Sea: PLA deploys new hospital ship to islands and reefs in contested waters

The Chinese military has deployed the nation’s biggest hospital ship to the South China Sea for its maiden mission. The Silk Road Ark made its public debut last week as it set sail from a naval port in Zhanjiang in Guangdong province in southern China, heading for the islands and reefs in the Paracel Islands, known in China as the Xisha Islands, and the Spratly Islands (Nansha in Chinese), to provide medical services, according to state media. The voyage comes at a time of increasing tension in the South China Sea, particularly between China and the Philippines. The Paracels are claimed by mainland China and Vietnam. The Spratly Islands are also subject to multiple claims, with Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia among claimants. The new floating hospital, which was commissioned to the Southern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army, is the country’s second 10,000-tonne-class large hospital ship in 15 years after the Peace Ark entered service in the Eastern Theatre Command in 2008. “The Silk Road Ark has the same hull structure and area with the Peace Ark, but it has a larger full-load displacement and stronger endurance than the Peace Ark,” state broadcaster CCTV said, without elaborating. According to public information, the Peace Ark has a displacement of more than 14,000 tonnes. Click here to read… [31]

Health

‘Ticking time bomb’: Poliovirus found in Gaza sewage

Poliovirus has been detected in samples of sewage water in the densely populated Gaza Strip, placing “thousands” of Palestinians at risk of contracting the highly infectious disease that can cause paralysis. Gaza’s Ministry of Health said it had detected “component poliovirus type 2” in coordination with UNICEF, the United Nations children’s agency. “Detecting the virus that causes polio in wastewater heralds a real health disaster and exposes thousands of residents to the risk of contracting polio,” it said on July 18 in a statement. The virus could be found in sewage “that collects and flows between the tents of the displaced”, said the ministry. Already scarce supplies of drinking water in the densely populated Strip are at risk of being contaminated by the virus. Authorities in the central Gaza city of Deir el-Balah this week predicted that “roads will be flooded by wastewater” and “diseases will spread” after it turned off sewage water pumping and treatment stations. “We’re talking about a very grim medical reality,” said Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum, reporting from Deir el-Balah, where 700,000 people have arrived in search of safety from fighting and air strikes. The Israeli military’s escalation of attacks on “water wells, sanitation and water waste treatment”, and its obstruction of “essential hygiene supplies” into the Strip had created a “suitable environment for the spread of different diseases,” he said. Click here to read… [32]

How is new malaria vaccine drive working in West Africa?

The Ivory Coast has received the first doses of malaria vaccine from the world’s largest vaccine maker, the Serum Institute of India, in collaboration with the University of Oxford, and began rolling out a new vaccination drive across the country earlier this week. Malaria remains a significant health issue in the Ivory Coast, causing up to four deaths per day in the country with a population of 28 million. According to a 2022 report from the World Health Organization (WHO), malaria causes more than 600,000 deaths worldwide per year with 95 percent of cases occurring in Africa and 80 percent of those cases in children under the age of five. A total of 656,600 doses of the new R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine have been delivered to the Ivory Coast, where clinicians will initially vaccinate 250,000 children aged from newborn to 23 months across 16 regions, the government said. Professor Adrian Hill, Lakshmi Mittal professor of vaccinology and director of the Jenner Institute at Oxford University in the United Kingdom, told the media on July 15 that the drive had been made possible through a joint initiative with the Serum Institute of India because of its “scale” and ability to mass-produce millions of vaccines at low cost. Click here to read… [33]