Discussion on Maintaining Continuity in India-US Relations across Transition

The VIF organised a virtual meeting on “Maintaining Continuity in India-US Relations across Transition” on 12 July 2024, where the participants from two sides deliberated on India-US relations post the swearing-in of the new NDA government. Ambassador Pankaj Saran, Convener of NatStrat, Member of the NSAB, Distinguished Fellow at National Maritime Foundation (NMF) chaired the meeting. Dr Arvind Gupta, Director, VIF, in his opening remarks laid the backdrop and context for the discussion. From the US side, Dr. Peter R Lavoy, senior director of international government relations at ExxonMobil; Mr Keith Webster, president of the US Chamber of Commerce’s Defence & Aerospace Council (DAC) and the Federal Acquisition Council (FAC) and vice president at the Chamber; Ms Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Programme at CNAS, highlighted the key aspects of US foreign policy and the nature of evolving India-US strategic partnership and what lies ahead as the US set to go for 2024 Presidential elections. From the Indian side, Ambassador Saran, Dr Gupta, Lt Gen Anil Ahuja, Distinguished Fellow, VIF, Lt Gen Ravi Sawhney, Centre Head & Senior Fellow, VIF, in addition to members from the VIF expert group and strategic community participated in the discussion.

The meeting focussed on further advancing ‘India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership’ by implementing a range of policy initiatives. It covered topics such as defence, technology, climate change, geopolitics, politics, economics, strategic autonomy, China and Pakistan concerns, and challenges related to the Indian diaspora in the United States. Amidst a deeply divided America, the participants noted the continued bipartisan support for a stronger India-US strategic partnership. While there is strong political and popular support in India for developing a robust relationship. They discussed the ongoing regional and global issues, including Russia-Ukraine war, trajectory of US-Russia relations, developments in Indo-Pacific and Taiwan Strait. They emphasized the necessity of strengthening defence and security relationship, including in the areas of joint R&D and production of advanced defence equipment. They stressed the need for more discussions on China’s nuclear buildup and potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.

It was noted that the India-US relationship has both bilateral and global dimensions. The meeting discussed the current state of bilateral defence and security relationship, with focus on defence industrial cooperation, technology transfer, joint R&D and production on top of continued military-to-military engagements. It focussed on the possibilities of exploring cheaper equipment to face with the changing nature of warfare. It also highlighted the importance of the India, Israel, UAE, and the US (I2U2) initiative and stressed the need to explore ways to take it forward. It underscored the continuing relevance of QUAD and necessity to work more closely with regional partners, including ASEAN countries. In addition, the participants exchanged views on the direction and nature of the US-China competition and its implications.

The participants noted the existing structural problems as well as strengths in both countries' decision-making systems. It was observed that conflicts can arise due to mismatched expectations from each other and the impact of third-country partnerships. India-US friction and points of vulnerability may also arise in the areas of geopolitics, politics, economics, technology, and climate change depending on who wins the Presidential election in November 2024. The primary drivers for the US should be to support India’s regional power status and bridge the technology gap with China. It was observed that the US maintains three level of relationship i.e. alliance, strategic partner and friend. The India-US relationship is unique and qualitatively different from other partnerships. So the goal is to keep India at the strategic partner level and not let it dip to the friend level. Nonetheless, continuity in India’s foreign policy towards the US under Modi 3.0 is expected, though coalition government may affect his domestic agenda, not foreign policy. While the US policy towards India is bipartisan in nature, deeply rooted in both Republican and Democratic parties. So regardless of who wins 2024 US election, there should be stability in the bilateral relationship.