Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (08-14 July 2024)

Economic

China set for third plenum that could prove a ‘defining moment’ of Xi Jinping era

China’s ruling Communist Party will begin a key meeting on July 15 that may determine the country’s course for the next decade. The event could be the most important “defining moment” of President Xi Jinping’s rule since a similar gathering in 2013 that set out his vision for reforming the country, according to one political researcher from Tsinghua University, who requested anonymity. He said the watershed third plenum would be used by the party elite to review achievements under Xi’s leadership and lay down plans to hit goals set for 2035, “which will lay the groundwork for the president’s grand legacy of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049”. The main focus of the meeting of more than 370 full and alternate members of the party’s Central Committee is expected to be deciding the best strategy for coping with the economic challenges facing the country. The event, formally known as the third plenum of the 20th Central Committee, is also likely to offer more details about the road map for reaching a series of interim industrial and technological goals by 2035, and the target of becoming a technology superpower with a world-class military by 2049. The event is expected to close on July 18 with a brief communique summarising the key decisions. Click here to read... [2]

China Opens Tit-for-Tat Investigation into EU Trade Barriers

China is investigating whether the European Union’s spate of actions against the world’s No. 2 economy constitute an illegal barrier to free trade, as the two blocs edge another step closer to a trade war. The Ministry of Commerce said the Chinese probe would span a range of sectors, including rail, solar and wind power, and security equipment in a July 10 statement. Those are areas the EU has targeted in recent months with an array of new tools, which it says are designed to defend itself against Beijing’s unfair practices. If Beijing determines an EU measure to be illegal, Chinese officials could conduct bilateral talks, start a multilateral dispute settlement and take “other appropriate measures,” according to the rules of the probe. In a separate document, the ministry said steps could include a recommendation to introduce “retaliatory measures.” A spokesperson for the European Commission didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment. Beijing’s relationship with the EU has hit fresh lows in recent months, as the bloc brings its China policy closer to that of the US. American and European leaders have slammed Beijing for flooding their markets with a surge in cheap exports, and raised the alarm about strengthening economic security as tensions flare. At the centre of those strains with the EU are China’s electric car exports, which Europe is worried threaten jobs in its own autos sector. Click here to read... [3]

China Sanctions Six US Defense Companies for Taiwan Arms Sale

China is sanctioning six American defense companies and senior executives for their involvement in a recent US arms sale to Taiwan, according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The sale “seriously violates the one-China principle,” interferes in China’s internal affairs and undermines the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to the ministry’s statement. The China-based assets of the six companies — including Anduril Industries, Maritime Tactical Systems, Pacific Rim Defense, AEVEX Aerospace, LKD Aerospace and Summit Technologies Inc. — will be frozen, effective July 12, MOFA added. Three senior executives from Anduril, including CEO Brian Schimpf, will also have their assets in China frozen and be denied entry into the country, it said. Similar measures are also applied to two executives of US drone maker AeroVironment Inc., including Chairman and CEO Wahid Nawabi. China’s sanctions came amid a local media report in Taipei that Taiwan President Lai Ching-te is considering passing through the US while potentially visiting nations that have ties with the archipelago. Click here to read... [4]

Saudis Warned G-7 Over Russia Seizures with Debt Sale Threat

Saudi Arabia privately hinted earlier this year it might sell some European debt holdings if the Group of Seven decided to seize almost $300 billion of Russia’s frozen assets, people familiar with the matter said. The kingdom’s finance ministry told some G-7 counterparts of its opposition to the idea, which was meant to support Ukraine, with one person describing it as a veiled threat. The Saudis specifically mentioned debt issued by the French treasury, two of the people said. In May and June, the G-7 was exploring different options regarding the Russian central bank’s blocked funds, most of which sit in Europe. The group eventually agreed to tap the profits generated and leave the assets themselves alone despite a US and UK push for allies to consider bolder options, including a direct seizure. Some euro-member nations were against that idea, concerned it could undermine the currency. Saudi Arabia’s stance likely influenced the reluctance of those countries, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private conversations. “No such threats were made,” according to a statement sent from the Saudi finance ministry. The kingdom’s holdings of euro and French bonds may amount to tens of billions of euros, but probably aren’t big enough to make a major difference if sold off. European officials were still concerned because other countries might have followed Saudi Arabia’s lead. Click here to read... [5]

NATO to expand defense industrial cooperation to Indo-Pacific

NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners -- Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand -- will discuss defense industrial cooperation when they meet on July 11, according to a senior U.S. official. Michael Carpenter, senior director for Europe at the U.S. National Security Council, said on July 08 that the security of Europe is intertwined with that of the Indo-Pacific -- a concept often mentioned by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. "So this is an important time for us to be able to coordinate on such things as resilience, countering disinformation, defense industrial cooperation and a range of other things," Carpenter said, speaking at the Foreign Press Center in Washington ahead of the NATO summit, which opens July 09. As multiple NATO members provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine to fight Russia, warehouses in the Euro-Atlantic region are seeing their stockpiles shrink. The idea is to tap the defense industrial bases of South Korea, Australia and Japan to quickly expand production capacity. South Korea and Australia were the world's 10th and 16th biggest arms exporters, respectively, during 2019-2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Meanwhile, as part of a project to develop and produce a next-generation fighter jet with the U.K. and Italy, Japan recently altered its rules to allow international arms sales. Click here to read... [6]

US set to wind down Gaza pier operations

The United States has said it will soon end operations from its pier designed to increase the flow of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip amid Israel’s continuing war. The $230m pier has repeatedly been detached from the shore because of weather conditions since its initial installation in mid-May, and the project also faced problems with the distribution of assistance due to conditions onshore. “I do anticipate that in relatively short order, we will wind down pier operations,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told journalists on July 11. Pentagon spokesman Major-General Pat Ryder said in a statement that “the pier will soon cease operations, with more details on that process and timing available in the coming days”. A United Nations report says 96 percent of Gaza’s population is food insecure, and one in five Palestinians, or about 495,000 people, face starvation amid Israel’s nine-month war on the territory. While the pier has brought in 8,100 metric tonnes of aid to a marshalling area on Gaza’s shore since it started operating in May, the 370m (1,200-foot) floating pier has had to be removed multiple times because of bad weather. Sullivan said the pier helped bring urgently needed food and other aid to Gaza, but additional supplies are now coming into the Palestinian enclave via land routes. “The real issue right now is not about getting aid into Gaza. It’s about getting aid around Gaza effectively,” he told reporters. Click here to read... [7]

Germany to bar Chinese companies’ components from core parts of its 5G networks

Germany will bar the use of critical components made by Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE in core parts of the country’s 5G networks in two steps starting in 2026, the nation’s top security official said July 11. Germany, which has Europe’s biggest economy, has long mulled what to do about components made by Chinese suppliers in its new-generation cellphone networks. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said critical components from Huawei and ZTE will be barred from 5G core networks by the end of 2026, while “critical management systems” from the two manufacturers in 5G access and transport networks must be replaced by the end of 2029. The decision follows negotiations in recent weeks with Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone and Telefonica, which operate Germany’s 5G networks, and agreements will be signed with all three companies, the Interior Ministry said. “We have examined the risks from critical components manufactured by Huawei and ZTE in German 5G cellphone networks very carefully,” Faeser said as she announced the “clear and strict agreement” with German operators. “With this, we are protecting the central nervous systems of Germany as a business location — and we are protecting the communication of citizens, companies and the state,” she said. “We must reduce security risks and, unlike in the past, avoid one-sided dependencies.” Click here to read... [8]

Central Asian railway to offer new link between China, Europe

A rail network that spans across Central Asia is gradually taking shape, spurred on by interest in bypassing such geopolitical hot spots as Russia and the Red Sea. China, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement last month on a railway project connecting the three countries, with construction slated to begin in October. The new railway will be "a landmark project of Belt and Road cooperation among the three countries," Chinese President Xi Jinping said at the signing ceremony. The railway will cover approximately 500 kilometers at a cost of more than $5 billion. The line will cross southern Kyrgyzstan to link the city of Kashgar in China's northwestern Xinjiang region to eastern Uzbekistan. From there, the line will connect with transport routes bound for Europe through other railways running through Turkmenistan and Turkey. A plan to extend the link to South Asia is being considered. A separate project to expand rail transport capacity between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is slated for completion in 2025. The rail network connecting China and Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus region has been dubbed the Middle Corridor. Heads of state railways in the region met in June and agreed to cooperate on developing the network. Freight volume along the Middle Corridor via the Caspian Sea jumped 90% or so on the year to roughly 2.8 million tonnes in 2023. Click here to read... [9]

Japan to offer guarantees on corporate investments in Global South

Japan seeks to encourage corporate investment in emerging and developing countries by providing guarantees through the Japan International Cooperation Agency, with a necessary legislative change aimed for fiscal 2025. JICA supports information gathering and research so small and midsized companies can expand into emerging countries. Guaranteeing loans currently is not among the roles stipulated in the law governing JICA. The goal is to set up a mechanism that enables JICA to compensate for losses. The government seeks to deepen relations with those economies by building a support system with the private sector. Investment and lending to developing countries is considered high risk, making ensuring profitability a challenge. The aim is to reduce risks shouldered by companies by providing guarantees through the official development assistance (ODA) framework. This would help increase the number of potentially profitable projects. Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa said on July 12 that she would work with government ministries and agencies to revamp ODA with an eye on amending the JICA law. A panel presented suggestions to the minister on the best ways to combine public and private funds. Countries that Japan has targeted for ODA up to now have seen economic growth and are no longer targets for traditional support like infrastructure investment. Click here to read... [10]

China AI leader iFlytek dips into red under 'ultimate' U.S. pressure

iFlytek, China's leading artificial intelligence technology developer, said it expects to swing to a loss of as much as $65 million for the first half of the year, blaming heavy investments made under "ultimate" pressure from Washington. The Shenzhen-listed company posted an earnings preview over the weekend saying that its bottom line dipped to a net loss of between 380 million yuan and 460 million yuan ($53.31 million and $64.53 million) in the six months through June. This compares to a net profit of 73.57 million yuan during the same period last year. Investors reacted by dumping iFlytek's Shenzhen-listed shares, which dropped by almost 7% at one point during Monday's morning session, close to the daily limit of 10% on the mainland bourses. They ended the day at 38.70 yuan, or 6.1% lower than July 05. In an unusually lengthy explanation for an earnings preview, management attributed the loss to enhanced levels of investment including those in Spark V4.0, the latest version of its AI language model launched at the end of last month as "the pinnacle of industry standards" and a rival to Open AI's GPT-4 Turbo. During the first half of the year, the company said it spent an extra 650 million yuan on research and development for the latest Spark V4.0 and to push for "self-control of the core technologies and the supply chains." Click here to read... [11]

Thai banks admit lack of capacity to investigate Myanmar weapon payments

Major Thai banks defended themselves on July 11 against criticism that they facilitated weapons purchases by the Myanmar junta, saying they lacked the capacity to investigate all transactions that may be used for such purchases. Representatives of the lenders told a parliamentary committee, however, that they strictly followed existing regulations. A U.N. expert’s report last month said that companies registered in Thailand utilized Thai banks to transfer weapons and related materials worth $120 million in the 2023 fiscal year to Myanmar, compared with $60 million the year before. These transactions blunt global efforts to isolate Myanmar’s ruling junta, which is facing its biggest challenge since taking power in a 2021 coup, with an nationwide armed resistance gaining ground on multiple fronts and a wilting economy. A junta spokesman did not respond to a call seeking comment. Thailand’s parliamentary committee on national security called in representatives of five banks after the report by the U.N. special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, highlighted the role of Thai entities. Pongsit Chaichutpornsuk, Senior Executive Vice President at Krung Thai Bank, said lenders have strictly complied with regulations but find it difficult to investigate indirect transactions such as those potentially made to buy fuel. Click here to read... [12]

ESG Enthusiasm Wanes with U.S. Shareholders

Support for environmental and social proposals from shareholders of U.S. companies at their annual general meetings remained roughly the same as last year’s proxy season and well below the 2021 season peak ESG enthusiasm. While the number of overall ESG proposals submitted by shareholders ahead of AGMs is rising, thanks to social and governance resolutions, support for environment-related proposals hasn’t moved much higher over the past two years. This proxy season, only two environmental proposals received majority support at AGMs, a report by Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer showed at the end of June. The two winning proposals, both requesting companies to adopt emission reduction targets, were submitted by the Accountability Board, a relatively new shareholder advocacy group focused on the food industry. The group won more than 50% support at the AGMs of Wingstop and Jack in the Box. Of the 11 Just Climate Transition proposals, average support was 18.2% as of the middle of June, according to Freshfields analysis of ISS data. Data provider ISS-Corporate said that among the Russell 3000 companies, median support for environmental and social shareholder proposals was 21% and 18%, respectively, the Financial Times reports. Recently, there has been a notable rise in anti-ESG proposals that have challenged the implementation of climate or social initiatives, ISS Corporate said mid-way through the proxy season. Click here to read... [13]

Cooking oil scandal may prompt China to tighten food safety policies, observers say

Allegations that Chinese companies have been using the same trucks to transport fuel and cooking oil are likely to be raised at a key political meeting next week and could prompt Beijing to tighten food safety policies, observers say. An investigative report by state-backed Beijing News last week said the tankers were being used for both fuel and food products like cooking oil, soybean oil and syrup. It said it was an “open secret” that the tankers did not get cleaned between deliveries to save costs. The report has sparked widespread public concern and calls for more oversight of the industry, and on July 09 China’s cabinet, the State Council, set up a team to investigate the allegations. Observers say Beijing does not appear to be trying to cover up the scandal, even though it has emerged at a politically sensitive time ahead of the third plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, which starts on July 15. There has been limited censorship around the report, which implicated a subsidiary of state-owned stockpiler Sinograin and private firm the Hopefull Grain and Oil Group. Both companies have launched their own investigations. As well as a public outcry on social media, the report has prompted harsh criticism from state media over the alleged wrongdoing. Click here to read... [14]

Ice Pact: US, Canada and Finland sign polar icebreaker deal in challenge to China

The US, Canada and Finland have announced an initiative to collaborate on the production of polar icebreakers, a move meant to jump-start an expansion of shipbuilding capacity to supply a global market increasingly dominated by China. The trilateral “Ice Pact” will include information sharing on icebreakers – the workhorses of polar coastguard fleets – to create an interoperable product class across three countries, as well as joint efforts to attract buyers from among “allies and partners”, a senior official in US President Joe Biden’s administration told reporters. The initiative was revealed during the ongoing Nato summit in Washington, and, according to the official, is “consistent with the message you’ve been hearing this week” at the bloc’s annual meeting. It is the second trilateral partnership on maritime technology and production announced by Biden, after he established Aukus with Britain and Australia in 2021. “The Ice Pact will reinforce the message to Russia and China that the United States and its allies intend to … doggedly pursue collaboration on industrial policy to increase our competitive edge in strategic industries like shipbuilding, to build a world-class polar icebreaking fleet at scale.” The pact is also meant “to project power into the polar regions to enforce international norms and treaties”, according to the official. “Without this arrangement, we’d risk our adversaries developing an advantage in a specialised technology with vast geostrategic importance, which could also allow them to become the preferred supplier,” he said. Click here to read... [15]

Samsung Electronics union in South Korea says it will strike indefinitely

A workers’ union at tech giant Samsung Electronics in South Korea said on July 10 it would continue to strike indefinitely, stepping up its campaign for better pay and benefits. The National Samsung Electronics Union (NSEU), whose roughly 30,000 members make up almost a quarter of the firm’s South Korean workforce, said it has decided to continue striking because management has shown no indication of holding talks after a strike that started on July 08. "We haven’t spoken to management since we started the strike on July 08," said Lee Hyun-kuk, the union’s vice president. The union said it would extend the strike, which was initially planned to last three days through July 10. Lee told Reuters that the strike has disrupted production on certain chip lines such as with equipment running more slowly. Samsung said the strike had caused no disruption during the first three days. "Samsung Electronics will ensure no disruptions occur in the production lines. The company remains committed to engaging in good faith negotiations with the union," the company said in a statement. The union is becoming more vocal and seeking to be treated as an equal partner, adding to challenges at the world’s biggest memory chipmaker which is struggling to navigate competition in chips used for artificial intelligence (AI) applications. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Trump’s Bloodied, Defiant Image After Shooting Pumps Up His Base

A moment of terrifying political violence at a Pennsylvania rally July 13 instantly turned into a piece of Donald Trump iconography that’s likely to turbocharge his presidential bid. Images of a defiant Trump — with his fist raised over his head and his bloody right ear, as Secret Service agents surround him and the American flag waving in the background — are blazing across social media and television. His supporters, many of whom viewed him as a movement figure and martyr long before the violence on July 13, seized on the photos as a metaphor for the former president’s resiliency. A bullet pierced the upper part of his right ear, Trump said. The shooter is dead, as is a bystander, according to the Butler County district attorney. Several vice-presidential hopefuls and senators voiced their support and shared images from the scene, while billionaire Elon Musk posted a message on X that said: “I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery.” David Urban, an informal Trump adviser and lobbyist who helped to run his operation in Pennsylvania in 2016, said he expects the shooting to unify Americans behind Trump. “Donald Trump is a fighter,” Urban said. “That photo will be iconic.” Click here to read... [17]

NATO allies call China a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war in Ukraine

In their most serious rebuke against Beijing, NATO allies on July 10 called China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine and expressed concerns over Beijing’s nuclear arsenal and its capabilities in space. The sternly worded final communiqué, approved by the 32 NATO members at their summit in Washington, makes clear that China is becoming a focus of the military alliance. The European and North American members and their partners in the Indo-Pacific increasingly see shared security concerns coming from Russia and its Asian supporters, especially China. Beijing insists that it does not provide military aid to Russia but has maintained strong trade ties with its northern neighbor throughout the conflict. It also accuses NATO of overreaching and inciting confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region. In the communiqué, NATO member countries said China has become a war enabler through its “no-limits partnership” with Russia and its large-scale support for Russia’s defense industrial base. “This increases the threat Russia poses to its neighbors and to Euro-Atlantic security. We call on the PRC, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council with a particular responsibility to uphold the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter, to cease all material and political support to Russia’s war effort,” read the communiqué, which referred to China by the abbreviation of its official name, the People’s Republic of China. Click here to read... [18]

What has NATO promised Ukraine – and did Gaza figure in summit talks?

Led by US President Joe Biden, NATO unveiled a series of new pledges to Ukraine at its three-day summit in Washington, DC, this week, marking the 75th anniversary of the military alliance. “Autocrats want to overturn the global order” and “terrorist groups” continue to plot “evil schemes”, while Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to wipe “Ukraine off the map”, Biden said on July 10. “But make no mistake, Ukraine can and will stop Putin, especially with our full, collective support,” the US leader added, as NATO leaders drummed up more military and financial support for the war-torn European country, while committing to Kyiv’s future in the bloc. Here’s what Ukraine got from the summit, more than two years after Russia launched a full-fledged invasion of its smaller neighbour — and the parts of the world that NATO chose to ignore. What did NATO promise Ukraine at the summit? The bloc said it will be outfitting Ukraine with several additional strategic air defence systems, including four additional Patriot batteries and a SAMP/T defence system. NATO leaders have also pledged at least $43bn in military aid to Ukraine. The alliance’s members also announced other individual and joint steps to boost Ukraine’s security. The United States, Netherlands and Denmark announced that the first NATO-provided F-16 fighter jets would be in the hands of Ukrainian military pilots by this summer. Click here to read... [19]

China and Belarus start joint exercises on NATO's edge

China and Belarus are conducting joint military exercises near the Polish border through July 19, deepening diplomatic and defense ties in a check against NATO after Minsk joined the Beijing- and Moscow-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) last week. The exercises began July 08 and in the southwestern city of Brest, near the borders of Poland and Ukraine, according to the Belarusian Defense Ministry. The drills will include a response to a simulated terrorist attack, such as landing at the scene of an incident from the sea or a river, rescuing hostages and fighting in densely populated areas. Chinese troops from the Northern Theater Command, which covers Russia and the Korean Peninsula, are taking part, the People's Liberation Army Daily, the official newspaper of China's military, reported. Minsk is allied with Moscow and has supported its war with Ukraine. It has joint forces with the Russian military and is home to Russian tactical nuclear weapons. In June, it participated in a Russian tactical nuclear exercise. China and Belarus share interests in terms of tensions with both the U.S., which supports Ukraine, and NATO. China has been wary of NATO's expanding influence in the Asia-Pacific region, saying it undermines regional peace and stability. The Belarusian Defense Ministry said the size of NATO forces near the Polish border was rapidly growing, Reuters reported on July 09. Click here to read... [20]

Trump’s Man in Europe: Hungary’s Orban Steps Up as a Global Envoy

Europe’s contrarian, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, is positioning himself as Donald Trump’s link across the Atlantic, claiming he is on a peace mission to end the war in Ukraine. Orban, fresh from meetings this month with top leaders in Beijing, Moscow and Kyiv, plus a swing through Washington for a gaggle of Western leaders at NATO’s annual summit, travelled to Florida on July 11 to meet with former President Trump, a good friend of Orban’s who is again the Republican presidential candidate. The gadfly nationalist Hungarian leader, who has maintained relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin to the consternation of other North Atlantic Treaty Organization members, described his stop at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate as part of his continuing “peace mission” on the social-media platform X. He said Trump “is a man of peace,” adding: “He will do it again!” Orban “is clearly betting on a Trump victory in November,” said Jörn Fleck, a senior director with the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank. “His check-in with Trump in Mar-a-Lago seems a well-timed gamble to establish himself early for unique access to a Trump II administration and position himself as a potential player on a larger stage.” Orban last week greeted Putin with a hug on arrival in Moscow. Click here to read... [21]

Nepal poised for new leadership after PM Dahal loses confidence vote

Nepal is set for a new coalition government led by politician K.P. Sharma Oli after the more radical Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal lost a parliamentary vote of confidence on July 12, ending a tumultuous 20-month tenure.Nepal has been politically unstable since it abolished a 239-year-old monarchy in 2008. Oli's new government will be the 14th since then. Its politics are closely monitored by its two big neighbors China and India, who have invested heavily in the Himalayan country as they jostle for influence. Dahal, 69, was forced to either resign or prove his majority in parliament after his largest ally, the liberal Communist Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) party, led by Oli, withdrew support last week. Oli, who has been prime minister twice before, struck a deal with the centrist Nepali Congress (NC) at the end of June, securing enough seats for a majority, meaning he is poised to govern, but no date has been set for the new government to take office. Dahal, a former Maoist rebel chief, needed at least 138 votes in his favor in the 275-member house to retain power. A total of 63 of the 258 lawmakers present in the chambers voted for him, 194 voted against, and 1 abstained. "The confidence vote sought by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been rejected," Parliament Speaker Dev Raj Ghimire declared after the ballots were counted. Click here to read... [22]

Japan Replaces Navy Chief, Punishes Officials Over Scandals

Japan replaced the head of its navy and punished more than 200 defense officials after a string of scandals that include mishandling of classified information and overclaiming on pay. The array of misconduct is some of most widespread revealed in the Japanese defense establishment in recent years and casts a shadow over Tokyo’s efforts to bolster its military to deal with rising challenges from China and North Korea. “These problems have betrayed the public trust and are unacceptable,” Defense Minister Minoru Kihara said July 12 in Tokyo, adding he would return one month of his salary to acknowledge his own responsibility. He pledged steps to prevent a recurrence. The scandals included classified information on warship movements being made accessible to individuals without security clearance, as well as dozens of navy divers claiming hazard pay for duties they hadn’t actually performed, the ministry said. There were also cases of ministry officials verbally harassing subordinates, the ministry said. Around 220 officials are being punished with penalties ranging from dismissals to formal reprimands, according to the ministry. Japan’s navy, known as the Maritime Self-Defense Force, is at the center of many of the misconduct charges. Admiral Ryo Sakai, the MSDF chief of staff, said in a statement that he would step down on July 19 to take responsibility. Click here to read... [23]

France wobbly on global stage as hung parliament looms

Parliamentary elections in France on July 07 yielded an unlikely winner in the left-wing coalition, letting European allies breathe easier after the far right failed to make as much progress as expected, though Paris faces an era of uncertainty in domestic and foreign affairs. President Emmanuel Macron called the snap vote after his centrist bloc was badly beaten by Marine Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National party in European Parliament elections in early June, saying that France needed "clarity." His decision shook France and the world, sparking alarm that he had opened the door for the RN to come into power. But the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire coalition won the most seats Sunday with 182, though it remained below the 289 needed for a majority. The centrist Ensemble bloc -- led by Macron's Renaissance party -- came second with 168 seats, leaving RN in third place with 143. RN led after the first round of voting June 30 and had looked set to become the dominant party. But the centrist and leftist groups cooperated and withdrew many candidates for Sunday's second round to avoid splitting the vote against the far-right party. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk summed up the mood on X with this tweet, "In Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief. Enough to be happy in Warsaw." Click here to read... [24]

Why the Tumen River border could test relations between China, Russia and North Korea

China has been trying to persuade Russia and North Korea to open a stretch of the Tumen River to Chinese cargo shipping for decades, a step that would provide direct access to the sea from the landlocked northeastern province of Jilin. Although its hopes may have been raised by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments following his recent visits to Beijing and Pyongyang the issue could still test the strength of the three-way relations. Despite their close ties with Beijing, both Russia and North Korea still have reservations about allowing Chinese shipping – especially its navy – access to a key waterway while some analysts believe Beijing may be wary about getting too close to the pair for fear of further harming its relations with the West. In a joint statement issued after Putin’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing in May, the pair agreed to hold a “constructive dialogue” with North Korea about letting Chinese ships sail through the lower Tumen River to the Sea of Japan, or East Sea. The three countries were expected to talk about this “soon”, Nikkei Asia reported last month, citing unnamed sources. The river forms part of North Korea’s border with both of its neighbours, but a 17km (10½-mile) stretch along the Russian border is largely unnavigable for freight vessels because of a Soviet-era railway bridge linking the two sides. Click here to read... [25]

Japan, Philippines sign defense pact in the face of shared alarm over China

Japan and the Philippines are signing a key defense pact July 08 that would allow the deployment of Japanese forces for joint military exercises, including live-fire drills, to the Southeast Asian nation that came under brutal Japanese occupation in World War II but is now building an alliance with Tokyo as they face an increasingly assertive China. The Reciprocal Access Agreement, which will similarly allow Filipino forces to enter Japan for joint combat training, will be signed by Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa in a Manila ceremony to be witnessed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. It would take effect after ratification by the countries’ legislatures, Philippine and Japanese officials said. Kamikawa and Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara are in Manila to hold talks with their Philippine counterparts on ways to further deepen relations, the Philippine government said in a statement. The defense pact with the Philippines is the first to be forged by Japan in Asia. Japan signed similar accords with Australia in 2022 and with Britain last year. Under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the Japanese government has taken steps to boost its security and defensive firepower, including a counterstrike capability that breaks from Japan’s postwar principle of focusing only on self-defense, amid threats from North Korea and China’s growing assertiveness. Click here to read... [26]

Iran's acting foreign minister says indirect talks with US ongoing via Oman

Iran is still conducting indirect nuclear talks with the United States via Oman, Iran's Etemad newspaper on July 11 quoted Iran's acting foreign minister as saying. Ali Bagheri Kani's reported comments followed remarks on July 08 in which a White House spokesperson said the United States was not ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran under the newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian. "Indirect talks are being conducted through Oman but the negotiation process is confidential, and its details cannot be recounted," Bagheri Kani was quoted as saying. Efforts were being made to leave "suitable grounds" for negotiations for the new Iranian government that will take office in the next few weeks. Pezeshkian, a low-profile moderate who won Iran's run-off presidential vote last week, has said he will promote a pragmatic foreign policy and ease tensions with the six powers that have been involved in now-stalled nuclear talks to revive a 2015 nuclear pact. However, foreign policy in Iran is ultimately decided by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who warned last month prior to elections that "one who thinks that nothing can be done without the favour of America will not manage the country well." Pezeshkian is taking office at a time of growing Middle East tensions over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and over cross-border fire between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, which have exacerbated disputes between Tehran and Washington. Click here to read... [27]

High-tech Western weapons ‘useless’ in Ukraine conflict – WSJ

Russia’s electronic warfare capabilities have rendered precision-guided Western munitions “useless” in the Ukraine conflict, the Wall Street Journal reported on July 10. With their guidance systems scrambled, some of these weapons have reportedly been retired within weeks of hitting the battlefield. When the US announced the delivery of GPS-guided Excalibur artillery shells to Ukraine in 2022, pro-Kiev outlets predicted that the $100,000-per-shot projectiles would make “Ukrainian artillery a whole lot more accurate” and “cause Russia a world of pain.” However, the Russian military adapted within weeks, Ukrainian commanders told the Wall Street Journal. Russian signal-jamming equipment was used to feed false coordinates to the shells and interfere with their fuses, causing them to veer off course or fall to the ground as duds. “By the middle of last year, the M982 Excalibur munitions, developed by RTX and BAE Systems, became essentially useless and are no longer employed,” the newspaper stated, paraphrasing the Ukrainian commanders. The Soviet Union invested heavily in electronic warfare (EW) during the 1980s, viewing jamming technology as a crucial bulwark against the guided missiles and shells that the US was beginning to develop at the time. While weapons such as the 1990s-era Excalibur shells were used by the US to a devastating effect in Iraq and Afghanistan, officials and analysts in Washington have since concluded that they are far less effective against a peer-level opponent like Russia. Click here to read... [28]

BRICS could establish its own parliament – Putin

Members of the BRICS economic group could establish their own parliament in the future, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the tenth parliamentary forum of the bloc in St. Petersburg on July 11. The Russian leader noted that the number of participants had increased this year. He said Russia, as the current chair of the group, would ramp up efforts to ensure that the four new members of the bloc were effectively integrated following their accession earlier this year. BRICS was founded in 2006 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, with South Africa joining in 2011. The group expanded this year when Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates became full members. “Thus far, BRICS does not have its own institutionalized parliamentary structure. But I believe that in the future this idea will definitely be realized,” Putin said. The Russian president stated that, by acting together, the group would be able to unlock its potential in economic, investment and technology cooperation. He also noted that events such as the group’s parliamentary forum strengthen the influence of BRICS on global affairs and help “make the world safer and more harmonious.” The group’s priorities include the achievement of “positive changes” in the world economy through the development of reliable financial instruments for settling payments within BRICS, Putin said. Click here to read... [29]

US to deploy long-range weapons in Germany

The US will station long-range missiles in Germany from 2026 onwards, the governments of both countries have announced. These weapons, including the SM-6 and Tomahawk systems, were banned on the continent until Washington tore up a landmark Cold War-era treaty in 2019. According to a joint statement published by the White House, the US will “begin episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026, as part of planning for enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future.” The statement was released following talks between American and German officials at NATO’s annual summit in Washington on July 10. The weapons systems deployed to Germany will include the SM-6 anti-air missile, which has a range of up to 460km (290 miles), and the Tomahawk cruise missile, which can reportedly strike targets more than 2,500km away. The White House said that “developmental hypersonic weapons” will also be stationed in Germany and will have a “significantly longer range than current land-based fires in Europe.” The US has yet to successfully field a hypersonic weapon and has canceled every hypersonic project since its first successful test in 2017. Land-launched missiles with a range between 500km and 5,500km were banned on European soil under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987. Click here to read... [30]

Killing Hamas’s Elusive Commander Would Be Strategic Win for Israel

Israel has tried to kill top Hamas commander Mohammed Deif at least five times. If the strike targeting him on July 13 has finally killed him, it would mark one of Israel’s biggest achievements since the start of the nine-month war in Gaza. That is because Deif, who commands the armed wing of Hamas, is one of the chief masterminds of the Oct. 7 attack that left 1,200 people dead in Israel and more than 240 taken as hostages. The attack catapulted the Palestinian cause into the global spotlight and has thrown the entire region into turmoil and placed it on the cusp of a wider war. Deif’s importance is partially symbolic as his death would show Israel can carry through on its promise to kill anyone who had played a role in planning or carrying out the attack, no matter how senior. But his death—which hasn’t been confirmed by Israel and has been denied by Hamas—would also mark a strategic win for Israel as it seeks to dismantle the military structure of the U.S.-designated terrorist group. Deif is credited with transforming the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades—the military wing of Hamas—from an insurgent militia into a capable fighting force since becoming its commander in the early 2000s. He is second on Israel’s threat list behind Hamas’s Gaza chief, Yahya Sinwar. Deif has survived several assassination attempts over the past two decades, including a 2014 airstrike that killed his wife and infant son in Gaza. Click here to read... [31]

Health

What US Presidents Do and Don’t Say About Their Health

Americans are naturally curious about the health of their president, and any sign of illness or frailty gets subjected to intense public scrutiny. That was not always the case. The US presidency has a checkered history with truth and disclosure when it comes to infirmity and maladies. Yet President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance on June 27 with former President Donald Trump — which has unleashed concerns among Democrats about his ability to win re-election, let alone serve another term — has renewed interest in just how much Americans are entitled to know about their leader’s health. 1. How much must presidents disclose about medical conditions? There are no legal requirements imposed on the president to inform the public about his or her health. Modern-day presidents have traditionally been quite open, however. George W. Bush shared detailed medical reports. Barack Obama released full details of his health checks, including one in March 2016, shortly before he was due to leave office. Trump was not very forthcoming with details about his health when he was in office. Biden has released the results of his annual physical throughout his presidency, most recently on Feb. 28, 2024. 2. What do we know about Biden’s health? White House physician Dr. Kevin O’Connor released a statement on July 8 that Biden, 81, sees a specialist for neurology, optometry, dentistry, orthopedics, radiology, cardiology, dermatology, physical therapy, and sleep medicine as part of his annual physical. Click here to read... [32]