West Asia Roundup: June 2024

Abstract

Israel-Hamas war ceaselessly continued in the 9th month wreaking havoc and enhanced chances of further escalation with Hezbollah and Houthis pitching in more significantly in support of Hamas. Internal fissures in governing coalition and the war cabinet became even more with Benny Gantz resigning due to differences over the war objectives with Netanyahu and called for new elections at the earliest after giving an ultimatum. Likewise, even the Israeli army Generals admitted that it was not possible to defeat and completely destroy Hamas which is an ideology. Pressure on Netanyahu government continued to get the remaining 120 hostages back with regular protests. International condemnation for civilian casualties and disproportionate use of force by Israel led to charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and demands for arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Hamas leaders, in the same vein by International Criminal Court (ICC) despite US pressure, acquired even greater traction. US continued to insist on an acceptable ceasefire deal as Secretary Blinken and others pushed shuttle diplomacy. Threats of invasion of Rafah by the IDF met with international furore and Egyptian warnings to Tel Aviv with which it has a Peace Treaty since 1979.

USA pushed for a UNSC Resolution to enforce a ceasefire however it is yet to be implemented, since Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire and Netanyahu would like to pursue eliminating Hamas altogether. Meanwhile, shortages of soldiers in the IDF became a concern and efforts to recruit Ultra-Orthodox Jews (who oppose it and wanted to remain exempt) went through a legal and public protest cycle.

Pursuant to the helicopter crash, in which President Raisi and his Foreign Minister Abdollahian were killed, snap elections were held on June 28 leading to no candidate winning the required number of votes and hence run off was called for between Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili. In view of the low voter turnout and apathy Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamanei urged Iranians to vote in large numbers to defeat the designs of enemies of Iran. Eventually, Dr Pezeshkian, a reformer was declared winner in July.

India

India Prime Minister Narendra Modi was effusively congratulated on his election victory for the third term by the leaders and strategic partners from West Asia. Fact that External Affairs Minister, within two weeks of being reappointed, undertook visits to UAE and QATAR indicates the depth of partnership with the region.

On June 30, Dr. S. Jaishankar paid an official visit to the State of Qatar and met the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar H.E. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, following on Pm Modi’s visit to Doha in February this year. Qatar remains a reliable energy partner for India.

Earlier, Dr. S. Jaishankar paid an official visit to the UAE on 23 June 2024. The visit follows the recent meeting between Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and UAE President HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on the margins of the G7 Summit in Apulia, Italy. He met with his counterpart Foreign Minister of UAE HH Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Both Ministers reviewed the multi-faceted India-UAE Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and expressed happiness at the substantive progress in diverse areas of bilateral cooperation including commercial and economic collaboration, fintech, education, culture, and people-to-people connect. They also discussed new areas with untapped potential for further enhancing collaboration. They also exchanged views on regional and global issues.

Due to an unfortunate fire in a building in Kuwait, 45 Indians were killed. The Kuwaiti government provided full support and cooperation for investigating the serious lapses. Indian MoS (EA) Shri Kirti Vardhan Singh was deputed to help oversee the injured Indians and repatriation of mortal remains of the ones perished.
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US sponsored ceasefire proposal accepted in UNSC

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on 10 June passed a resolution endorsing a US-backed ceasefire proposal to end Israel's eight-month assault on Gaza. The resolution was adopted with a 14-0 vote, with Russia abstaining.
The three-phase ceasefire plan proposed by US President Joe Biden includes:

1. An initial six-week ceasefire and the exchange of captives held by both sides.
2. A permanent ceasefire and the release of remaining captives.
3. A multi-year reconstruction effort for Gaza.

The resolution called on both Israel and Hamas to implement the terms without delay or conditions. While Hamas welcomed the resolution and ready for indirect negotiations, Israeli officials expressed reluctance, especially regarding a permanent ceasefire before dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities.

The resolution underscores the UNSC's commitment to a two-state solution and the unification of Gaza with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority (PA). US Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in the region on 10 June meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss Gaza truce proposal and the future of the Palestinian territory after the war. Blinken blamed Hamas for prolonging the war, calling it an “outlier” for not agreeing to the US deal.

Blinken assured Israel’s "ironclad" commitment to Israel’s security and the comprehensive ceasefire proposal. The US truce plan does not specify Gaza’s future governance, but Washington DC wants a reformed Palestinian Authority to govern, a stance opposed by Israel. The Egyptian presidency confirmed discussions on ceasefire efforts and humanitarian aid for Gaza. Since October 2023, at least 37,124 people have been killed in Gaza, with severe restrictions on supplies leading to warnings of famine. Israel launched the war after a Hamas-led attack on October 7, which killed over 1,139 Israelis and resulted in around 250 hostages.

Israeli Defence Minister rejects French initiative

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on 14 June rejected a French initiative aimed at easing tensions with Hezbollah, citing France's stance on Gaza as hostile. Gallant stated Israel would not join a proposed trilateral group with the US and France due to what he termed France's overlooking of Hamas atrocities against Israelis. Israeli officials later distanced themselves from Gallant's remarks, calling them incorrect. French President Emmanuel Macron proposed the initiative amid heightened tensions at the Lebanese-Israeli border. The plan seeks Hezbollah's withdrawal from a 10 km buffer zone, Israeli cessation of attacks on southern Lebanon, and negotiations on border disputes. Hezbollah linked any diplomatic resolution to ending Israel’s Gaza operations, which Israel intensified after Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon.

Recent clashes include Hezbollah firing more than 215 rockets and 30 suicide drones at 15 Israeli military positions following the killing of a senior commander, Taleb Abdullah. In response, Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon, resulting in civilian casualties. Cross-border skirmishes have escalated, prompting tens of thousands to flee. Hezbollah asserts readiness for war if Israel escalates, while Israeli officials vow to push Hezbollah back from their border. The US and Western officials are pushing for de-escalation, advocating a Gaza ceasefire as pivotal to calming tensions in Lebanon. The situation remains volatile, with fears of broader conflict looming amid ongoing military exchanges and displaced populations on both sides.

Israeli Minister Benny Gantz on 9 June resigned from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s emergency government, removing the centrist influence from the far-right coalition amid the Gaza conflict. Gantz criticized Netanyahu for obstructing progress and called for early elections to establish a more trustworthy and capable government. Gantz had warned he would leave if Netanyahu did not present a post-war plan for Gaza/ He emphasized the importance of lawful protests and national unity against external enemies. Gantz’s resignation does not threaten the coalition's parliamentary majority but opens the door for far-right ministers, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s party, to join the war cabinet. Smotrich criticized Gantz’s move, claiming it fulfills the objectives of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Gantz, a former opposition leader who joined the war cabinet to show a united front, cited unmet demands as his reason for leaving. He called for Defence Minister Yoav Gallant to take appropriate action and stressed the need for a true unity government.

Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in favour of conscription for ultra-orthodox Jewish community

Israel's Supreme Court on 25 June ruled that ultra-Orthodox men must be drafted into the military, ending the long-standing exemption for Jewish seminary students. This decision challenges Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, which relies on religiously conservative parties opposed to the draft. The court condemned the exemption as "invalid selective enforcement," violating the principle of equality before the law. This ruling comes amid the ongoing war in Gaza, where the military has called up tens of thousands of soldiers and reported over 600 casualties. The need for manpower has made the issue of inequality more urgent.

The exemption has long been a point of contention between Israel's secular and religious communities. The court's decision highlights the growing divide and the intensified anger among the secular public, especially during the eight-month-old war in Gaza. Despite the court's ruling, ultra-Orthodox political parties, key allies in Netanyahu's government, remain opposed to drafting their community members. The opposition threatened to destabilize the government during the ongoing critical phase of the conflict.

Houthi Attack on Israeli Cargo Ship

Yemen’s Houthis on 13 June attacked a Greek owned cargo ship and on 14 June, launched two cruise missiles striking a Palauan flagged Ukrainian owned and Polish operated ship in the Gulf of Aden injuring one mariner. On 22 June, Houthis carried out ballistic missile attack towards a Liberian-flagged carrier, Transworld Navigator in the Arabian Sea on 23 June for using an Israeli port. Houthi spokesperson, Yahya Saree on 23 June announced that the group jointly with Iranian-backed Iraqi militia, Islamic Resistance in Iraq, targeted four vessels including two cement tankers and two cargo ships at Israel’s Haifa port for allegedly violating a ban on entering “ports of occupied Palestine.” Additionally, a Shorthorn Express ship in the Mediterranean was also targeted with drones.

Israel's Channel 12 reported an explosion in Haifa, but Israel's military did not comment on the Houthi claim, only noting it had shot down a drone approaching from the east. The British maritime security agency UKMTO reported a drone attack on a merchant ship in the Red Sea near Yemen, causing damage but no injuries. Another incident near Yemen’s Nishtun port led to a caution advisory for vessels.

For months, vessels in the Red Sea have faced attacks from Iran-backed Houthis supporting Palestinians. On Saturday, Houthis claimed an attack on a ship docked in Israel, which US Central Command (CENTCOM) denied. CENTCOM reported destroying three Houthi nautical drones and noted three anti-ship missiles were launched into the Gulf of Aden, causing no injuries or significant damage. Houthi leader Abdel-Malik al-Houthi announced in June that joint operations with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq would increase against ships docking at Israeli ports in solidarity with Palestine.

Fire in Kuwait Kills Indians

At least 49 people including 45 Indians died and dozens were injured in a fire that engulfed building housing workers in Kuwait's Mangaf district on 12 June. Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Fahad al-Yousuf al-Sabah, visiting the site, criticized building owners for negligence, ordering the arrest of the property owner. Authorities brought the fire under control and launched an investigation into its cause. Forensic teams raised the death toll from an initial 41 to 49 after examining the charred building. The structure was reportedly overcrowded with workers, complicating rescue efforts. A senior police commander emphasized warnings against overcrowding in worker accommodations, noting the dangers of smoke inhalation during fires. Details about the workers' employment or origins were not disclosed by officials.

Wildfire in Turkey

At least 11 people have died and dozens were injured as wildfires swept through several villages in mainly Kurdish southeastern Turkey in the third week of June. Health Minister Fahrettin Koca reported 78 injuries, with five in intensive care. The blaze started from burning crop stubble and was fanned by winds, spreading rapidly through Koksalan, Yazcicegi, and Bagacik villages.

Firefighters brought the blaze under control 21 June, according to Diyarbakir Governor Ali Ihsan Su. The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) criticized the government's response as “late and insufficient,” urging the use of water bombers. The public prosecutor’s office opened an investigation into the fire’s cause. Meanwhile, in northwestern Turkey, firefighters battled another wildfire near Ayvacik in Canakkale province, evacuating the village of Camkoy as a precaution.

Hospital Fire in Iran

Nine patients died on 18 June after a fire broke out in the basement of Qaem Hospital in Rasht, northern Iran. The victims, six women and three men, were in the intensive care unit. All patients in the hospital were evacuated. Mohammad Taghi Ashoubi, head of the Gilan University of Medical Sciences, confirmed that an intubated patient in the ICU died, while eight others were killed earlier. The cause of death is under investigation. At the time, the 250-bed hospital had 142 patients, including 33 in intensive care. Many patients were transported to other healthcare facilities. Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi coordinated assistance and the investigation.

In late January, a fire at the 17-floor Gandhi hospital in Tehran caused no casualties. In June 2020, a gas canister explosion following a fire at a Tehran clinic killed 19 people. Last November, a fire at a drug rehabilitation centre in Langarud, Gilan province, killed 36 people. The fire was set by a former patient attempting to free those inside. The centre, designed for 30 people, held 49 at the time.

Bahrain and Iran Moving Towards Normalization

Bahrain's Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani met with acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani in Tehran on 23 June on the side-lines of the Asian Cooperation Dialogue summit. Both sides agreed to initiate talks to restore political relations.

The two states have had strained relations for over a decade, with Bahrain cutting ties in 2016 amid tensions between its ally Saudi Arabia and Iran. Bahrain also accused Iran of involvement in a 2011 anti-government protest led by Bahrain's Shia community, which was suppressed with Saudi intervention. Relations began to warm after Saudi Arabia restored ties with Iran last year through a Chinese-brokered deal. In June, Bahrain sent a request via Russia to re-establish diplomatic relations with Iran, and in May, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa expressed a desire for improved relations with Iran.

Iran’s Presidential Elections

Iran's snap presidential election headed into a run-off after reformist-backed Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili emerged as top candidates but failed to secure a majority in the first round on 28 June. Only 40 percent of the 61 million eligible voters participated, a record low since the 1979 revolution. Pezeshkian received 10.41 million votes, followed by Jalili with 9.47 million. This marks only the second time since the revolution that a presidential election has gone to a second round.

Conservative Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Islamic leader Mostafa Pourmohammadi were eliminated, with other candidates dropping out and endorsing Jalili. The election was prompted by a helicopter crash that killed President Ebrahim Raisi and seven others. Voter apathy is attributed to disillusionment following nationwide protests and economic challenges. Pezeshkian, supported by former presidents, aims to lift sanctions and restore the 2015 nuclear deal. Jalili promised economic growth and a tougher stance against the West. Increased turnout is expected in the July 5 run-off, which would benefit Pezeshkian needing more votes to overcome the conservative coalition.

Canada Declares IRGC as ‘Terrorist’ Group

Canada -designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist” entity and urged its citizens in Iran to leave. The Canadian government announcing the decision on 19 June stated that the move aims to counter terrorist financing and combat IRGC’s activities alongside groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. In response, Iran condemned the listing as politically motivated, with its foreign ministry asserting it won't impact the IRGC's power and reserving the right to respond. Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s Minister of Public Safety, cited Iran’s poor human rights record and destabilizing actions as reasons for the designation. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly advised Canadians to avoid travel to Iran, citing risks of arbitrary detention. The listing mandates Canadian financial institutions to freeze IRGC assets and prohibits financial dealings with the group.

The United States designated the IRGC as a “terrorist” group in 2019. The IRGC operates with autonomy and answers directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader. Relations between Iran and Canada have been strained, with Ottawa severing diplomatic ties in 2012 over Iran’s nuclear program and support for Syria’s government. Tensions worsened in 2020 after Iran accidentally shot down a plane carrying Canadian citizens, which Iran attributed to human error during heightened tensions with the US. Canada has accused Iran of failing to conduct a fair investigation into the plane incident. The IRGC listing comes as Canada faces scrutiny over its human rights stance, particularly regarding its relationship with Israel. Iranian parliament in response to Canada’s move labelled the Canadian army as terrorist entity on 24 June.

Prisoner Exchange between Iran and Sweden

Iran and Sweden on 15 June carried out prisoner swap brokered by Oman involving the release of a former Iranian official for a European Union diplomat and a Swedish-Iranian citizen. The Oman News Agency confirming the transfer mentioned that the prisoners were moved from Tehran and Stockholm to Muscat before returning to their respective countries.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's judiciary’s foreign relations chief, announced that Hamid Nouri, sentenced to life in Sweden for war crimes and murder committed in Iran in 1988, had been released. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson confirmed the release of Johan Floderus, a 33-year-old EU diplomat detained for over two years on spying charges, and Iranian-Swedish national Saeed Azizi, imprisoned on national security charges.

The relations between Iran and Sweden had deteriorated due to Nouri's case. He was convicted for his role in the deaths of thousands of political prisoners as deputy prosecutor of Gohardasht Prison near Tehran. Iran claimed Nouri’s trial was influenced by the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), a group considered a “terrorist” organization by Iran. A Swedish appeals court upheld Nouri's life sentence in December 2023. Amnesty International Sweden expressed concern that dual national Ahmadreza Djalali, sentenced to death in Iran on spying charges, was not included in the exchange, fearing he is being used as a “political pawn” for a future deal.

Civil War in Sudan

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a major attack on el-Fasher in North Darfur on 14 June, a day after UNSC demanded an end to their siege. Sudan’s Armed Forces reported they repelled the attack, killing and wounding hundreds of RSF fighters, including a senior commander, Ali Yagoub Gibril. The RSF has not responded.

The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and RSF began in April 2023, killing at least 14,000 people and displacing over 10 million. The UN fears ethnic cleansing if RSF captures el-Fasher, a crucial city for humanitarian aid with a population of 1.8 million. The war has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with 756,000 people facing catastrophic food shortages by September. Many Sudanese have joined the armed forces to fight the RSF, driven by the militia's atrocities. In North Darfur, RSF attacks have displaced over 130,000 people. The US announced $315 million in emergency aid, warning of a potential famine affecting 2.5 million people in Darfur and Kordofan by September 2024.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly Reappointed to Form a New Government in Egypt

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi reappointed Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly to form a new government. Madbouly, who has been prime minister since 2018, is tasked with creating a capable cabinet to address domestic and international challenges, including national security, terrorism, and economic issues. El-Sisi emphasized the need for expertise and competencies to improve government performance and tackle the state's challenges.

El-Sisi, who won a third term in April with 89.6 percent of the vote, ordered the reshuffle amid ongoing security and economic challenges, including Israel’s war on Gaza. Recently, an Egyptian security member was killed in a border shooting with Israeli forces near Rafah. El-Sisi has been mediating a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and facilitating humanitarian aid to Palestinians.

Despite speculation about Madbouly's replacement due to economic difficulties, Egypt has seen some economic relief from an investment agreement with the UAE and international funding deals, including an expanded loan program with the IMF.