Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (01-07 July 2024)

Economic

Crushing Debts Await Europe’s New Leaders

New governments in Europe are being handed a poisoned chalice. They are being elected with mandates for change, but only limited means at their disposal to enact it. Public debt is close to multidecade highs on both sides of the English Channel, where voters this week were electing new parliaments. In both France and the U.K., government spending and budget deficits as a share of gross domestic product are significantly above pre-pandemic levels. Economic growth remains lacklustre, borrowing costs have surged, and demands on the public purse are rising, from defence to old-age pensions. All that means fiscal restraint—less spending or higher taxes—will be necessary, economists say. But politicians haven’t prepared electorates for that. On the contrary, they have signalled bold new spending plans. In France, the far-right National Rally, which exit polls suggested would emerge as the third biggest bloc in parliament in July 07’s election, has proposed sweeping tax cuts and reversing President Emmanuel Macron’s unpopular increase in the state pension age, although party officials recently walked back some of those promises. The New Popular Front, a left-wing alliance that exit polls suggested would emerge with the most seats, has an even more ambitious agenda. Click here to read… [2]

Russia becomes ‘high income’ country – World Bank

The World Bank’s annual national income rankings, released on 01 July, showed that Russia has advanced from “upper middle” to “high” category on the strength of its economic growth. The bank measures gross national income (GNI) based on a method dating back to 1989, and updates its classifications every July 1, based on the previous calendar year’s GNI per capita. The income is measured in the equivalent of US dollars. “Economic activity in Russia was influenced by a large increase in military related activity in 2023, while growth was also boosted by a rebound in trade (+6.8%), the financial sector (+8.7%), and construction (+6.6%),” said a post on the World Bank blog. “These factors led to increases in both real (3.6%) and nominal (10.9%) GDP, and Russia’s Atlas GNI per capita grew by 11.2%,” the bank added. This economic growth happened even after the US and its allies levied thousands of sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine conflict, openly stating that their goal was to destroy the Russian economy and provoke regime change in Moscow. To be considered high-income, a country has to have a GNI of over $14,005, adjusted up from $13,845 for the previous fiscal year. The adjustment relies on a weighted average of GDP deflators of China, Japan, the UK, the US, and the Eurozone. Click here to read… [3]

North Korea switches to Russian satellites – Reuters

North Korean authorities have redirected the transmission of the country’s state TV broadcasts to a Russian satellite from a Chinese one, Reuters reported on 01 July, citing South Korea’s Unification Ministry. Signals from North Korean Central Television have been carried by a Russian satellite, Express 103, since June 29, according to a South Korean satellite dish service provider, as cited by the news agency. The North had previously been using the ChinaSat 12 satellite to transfer signals. The move has made monitoring the broadcasts more challenging for South Korean media and state agencies, Reuters noted. It explained that the country’s authorized entities need access to a satellite service to watch the North’s broadcasts, while the general public is barred from accessing media from the neighbouring state. Watching North Korean TV online is still possible, Reuters said, but added that this can be delayed or of low quality. “North Korea stopped using an existing Chinese satellite and began transmitting broadcasts through a Russian satellite, and reception of satellite broadcasts is being restricted in some areas on our side,” a Unification Ministry official told Reuters, noting that the ministry was seeking to address the technical challenge. According to the report, monitoring North Korean state media is common practice for Seoul, as it seeks information about the reclusive country with which it remains at loggerheads following decades of isolation and confrontation. Click here to read… [4]

Japan headed for shortage of 970,000 foreign workers in 2040

Japan will need 970,000 more foreign workers than it will have in 2040 to meet the nation's economic growth target, a new estimate shows, highlighting the country's challenges in attracting and retaining overseas talent. A 2022 study put the shortfall at 420,000 foreign workers in 2040. The Japan International Cooperation Agency's new estimate is more than double this figure, with the country seen drawing fewer people from Asian nations. The new estimate does not account for the impact of exchange rates, given difficulties predicting their future movements. But a weak yen has dimmed Japan's appeal to workers from Vietnam and elsewhere, which means the country could end up with an even more acute shortage. Japan in 2019 set an annual economic growth target of 1.24%, which would expand gross domestic product by about 20% from 2023 to 704 trillion yen ($4.36 trillion at current rates) in 2040. To achieve this goal with Japan's shrinking labour force, JICA estimates the country will need 4.19 million foreign workers in 2030 and 6.88 million in 2040, even if automation progresses at a faster pace. But Japan is projected to have only 3.42 million foreign workers in 2030 and 5.91 million in 2040. The gap stems partly from downgrades to the outlook of Asian economies. Click here to read… [5]

Hong Kong commercial law hub allure damaged by foreign judges’ row, lawyers say

The resignations of two British judges from China-ruled Hong Kong’s highest court not only raise concerns about the rule of law, some lawyers and experts say, but will further undermine confidence in the city’s broader commercial legal sector. Hong Kong’s legal industry, which has long helped define the territory as an international financial hub, is already facing pressure from a downturn in capital markets, competition from other judicial centres and growing tensions between China and the U.S. Fresh questions about the independence of the judiciary and the strength of the rule of law will add to concerns for foreign companies about the legal protections they can expect in Hong Kong, lawyers and experts say. “Some people think that you can divide or separate commercial cases as a phenomenon from political or human rights cases, but I think that’s kind of a perilous path, because what happens is the politics of repression creeps into the commercial area as well,” Michael Davis, an international law professor and global fellow at the U.S.-backed Wilson Center think tank said. The heightened concerns over Hong Kong as a legal centre were sparked by the resignations a month ago of two British judges, Jonathan Sumption and Lawrence Collins. Click here to read… [6]

EU Hits Record 74% Zero-Emission Power Generation

The European Union has seen its largest share of zero-emission electricity generation so far this year, with 74% of power generated by renewables and nuclear, according to data from industry association Eurelectric. Year to date, renewables have generated 50.39% of the EU’s electricity and nuclear accounted for 23.5% of power generation, while fossil fuels made up 26.1% of the bloc’s electricity output, the data showed. “The electricity generation of Europe has never had such a low-carbon profile before,” Kristian Ruby, Eurelectric Secretary General, told Reuters, commenting on the data. According to Eurelectric, coal produced 9% of EU electricity and gas accounted for 13% of power generation and these were the lowest shares for each of the fuels for the same period in any year to date. The surge in solar and wind capacity installations has led to the greenest EU power mix yet, although lower EU power consumption made it easier for renewable energy sources to dent the share of fossil fuels. In April, for example, the EU saw a record-low power generation from fossil fuels and a record-high share of renewables in the electricity mix, energy think tank Ember says. In April 2024, fossil fuels produced less than a quarter of EU electricity for the first time, while the share of renewables, at a record-high for a single month at 54%, was boosted by wind and solar and a recovery in hydropower compared to April 2023, when droughts had diminished the hydropower share of generation. Click here to read… [7]

Sinopec Appraisal Well in South China Sea Yields High Oil and Gas Flows

China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec, has said that it struck high oil and gas flows from an exploration well in the South China Sea. Sinopec’s subsidiary Shanghai Offshore Petroleum Company (SHOPC) has tested the Hai 3 well test in the Weixi exploration area in the Beibu Gulf Basin in the South China Sea and found that oil and gas output was very promising. SHOPC says the daily flow rate is a record-high for oil and gas production in Beibu Gulf’s Haizhong Depression, part of the Weizhou oilfield, Offshore Energy reports. Sinopec has been more active in onshore exploration and production, but it has recently boosted offshore exploration efforts, too, as Chinese state-held giants seek to raise domestic oil and gas resources and production. At the end of last year, Sinopec launched oil and gas production from the deepest onshore well in Asia. The Yuejin 3-3XC well of Sinopec’s Project Deep Earth NO.1 in the Tarim Basin in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, is 9,432 meters (30,945 ft) deep—a new record set for the deepest onshore well in Asia. More recently, another major state-held oil and gas giant, CNOOC, launched last month crude oil production from a new development project in the South China Sea. Click here to read… [8]

Gas Flaring Is Back with a Vengeance

Within the last few years, a few ground-breaking reports have shown that the level of gas flaring from oil operations worldwide has been far higher than companies had led us to believe. This led several oil majors to make ambitious pledges for flare reduction. While some cut flaring practices significantly, others found ways to reuse waste gas for activities like cryptocurrency mining. However, it seems like old habits die hard, as we saw the highest level of gas flaring last year since 2019, suggesting that the practice is far from coming to an end. According to satellite data provided by the World Bank this month, gas flaring rose by 7 percent in 2023, following a decrease the previous year. This contributed to an additional 23 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, equivalent to an extra five million cars on the roads. In addition to carbon dioxide, gas flaring also emits methane into the atmosphere, which contributes heavily to global warming. The countries that carried out the most gas flaring last year were Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, Russia, the United States and Venezuela, contributing 75 percent of the global total. Together, these countries produce around 46 percent of the world's oil, yet they contribute most of the world’s flaring emissions. The higher levels of gas flaring in 2023 were attributed to several factors, including increased crude production in some countries and a lack of dedication to gas recovery and use. Click here to read… [9]

Raw Material Shortages Weigh on EU Ammunition Production

The European Union's capacity to produce 155 mm artillery ammunition may be less than half as large as public estimates by senior EU officials indicate, affecting the bloc's ability to keep promises about supplies to Ukraine, Schemes and its partners in a journalistic investigation have found. The finding is a result of months of reporting by Schemes -- the investigative unit of RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service -- and other outlets in a consortium of European media on shell production, a crucial factor in Ukraine's defence against the Russian invasion. In addition to the capacity issue, interviews with ammunition producers, buyers, government officials, policy advisers, and defence experts in EU member states and Ukraine showed that the EU has given Ukraine about half as many shells as it has promised, with a significant delay. In March, the European Commission said that thanks to its measures, European annual production capacity for 155 mm shells had reached 1 million a month earlier. Three months later, in June, Thierry Breton, the European commissioner for the internal market, said that EU producers would reach an annual capacity of 1.7 million 155 mm shells by the end of this year and that capacity would continue to grow. However, according to a high-ranking European arms industry source, the current capacity is about one-third of this. Click here to read… [10]

What do the IMF and foreign debt have to do with Kenya’s current crisis?

Weeks since protests began, determined Kenyans continue going out to voice their frustrations with the government. But when demonstrators first took to the streets in June to rally against proposed tax hikes, it was not only President William Ruto and members of parliament who came under fire. In the protests that later turned deadly, placards were raised denouncing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, which were accused of causing the crisis. “IMF, World Bank, Stop the Modern-Day Slavery,” one placard read. Across the capital, Nairobi, graffiti denouncing the organisations is visible even as protesters continue to demand Ruto resign. So, what is the IMF’s role in the current crisis, and what are Kenyans now demanding from the organisation? What did the IMF do? For years, multilateral lenders, especially the IMF, have had bad reputations in African countries for providing loans to desperate countries based on stringent conditions that critics said have always disproportionately affected the poor. African leaders, including Ruto, have also criticised international lenders for what they said are unusually high interest rates compared with other developing countries. In Kenya, that anger is fresh because Ruto’s now-withdrawn tax hikes as well as similar legislation passed in 2023 are both linked to IMF loans as Kenya staggers under the weight of a heavy debt crisis. Click here to read… [11]

U.S. Sends a Plane of Chinese Migrants to China

The Department of Homeland Security said on July 02 that 116 Chinese nationals were deported back to China, a move that came after a surge of Chinese migrants entering at the U.S. southern border in recent years. The charter flight took place over the weekend and in coordination with the Chinese government, according to the DHS, which said it was the first large such flight since 2018. The removal operation followed recent engagement between U.S. and Chinese authorities. In early June, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong held a videoconference discussing deepening cooperation in such areas as drug control, repatriation of migrants and combating transnational crime, according to the Chinese state news agency Xinhua. The U.S. started to see a surge in Chinese migrants coming through Latin America in 2023. Since the start of the government’s budget year in October through May, U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents have apprehended 31,077 Chinese nationals along the southwestern border, about a quarter of total arrests at the border during the period. The Chinese migrants crossing the border are generally people from underprivileged groups, with low incomes, education levels and skills and with little or no chance of securing a U.S. visa. Click here to read… [12]

China to set annual salary cap on finance sector amid common prosperity push, sources say

China plans to cap the annual salaries of financial workers at around 3 million yuan (US$412,460), as the government doubles down on its campaign to eradicate extravagance and hedonism from the industry and narrow the wealth gap amid a persistent downturn in economic growth, according to people familiar with the matter. The limit will be applied to all state-backed brokerages, mutual fund firms and banks, except financial institutions backed by private investors, the sources said, adding that the information is not meant to be made public. The measure will be applied retroactively, meaning those who earned more than 3 million yuan over the past few years will probably have to return the excess money to their companies, the sources said. The move is the latest in a series of steps to align with President Xi Jinping’s initiative of common prosperity, which stresses even wealth distribution at a time when the nation is facing economic headwinds. The financial industry, which is seen as elite in China, has come in the cross hairs of top policymakers since a young trader at China International Capital Corp in 2022 flaunted his salary on social media, drawing the ire of the public. This was swiftly followed by a slew of investigations into corruption cases involving senior regulators and executives. Click here to read… [13]

China’s tech boom powering AI career coup, with finance muscled out at top of salary pyramid

China’s rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) sector has nudged aside finance to top the country’s salary rankings for the second quarter of 2024, as Beijing’s push for self-sufficiency in tech and the rush to capitalise on the industry’s global popularity are helping firms in the field outpace the banks, funds and brokerages that have tended to offer the highest-paying jobs. Propelled by an explosion of demand as businesses race to develop and trial AI applications, jobs in this sector saw an average monthly pay growth of 5.3 per cent to 13,594 yuan (US$1,868) during the quarter compared to the year prior, according to online recruitment platform Zhilian Zhaopin. Meanwhile, investment as a whole – which includes funds, securities and futures positions – slipped to second place after taking the top spot in the first quarter of the year and many previous periods. The changing fortunes of AI and financial jobs reflect a shift in national priorities as well as the job market. While employees in China’s vast financial sector have been hit by widespread pay cuts and even retractions of bonuses, tech is quickly becoming a new darling among jobseekers. Beijing has diverted ample resources to boost its tech capacity – including funnelling capital from the financial sector – as the world’s second-largest economy attempts to upgrade manufacturing while striving to bypass numerous barriers to tech and trade development laid down by the West. Click here to read… [14]

Pentagon Has a Huawei Dilemma Congress Doesn’t Want to Solve

The Pentagon has a problem: How does one of the world’s largest employers avoid doing business with companies that rely on China’s Huawei Technologies Co., the world’s largest telecommunications provider? So far, the Defense Department is saying that it can’t, despite a 2019 US law that barred it from contracting with anyone who uses Huawei equipment. The Pentagon’s push for an exemption is provoking a fresh showdown with Congress that defence officials warn could jeopardize national security if not resolved. As it has done since the law was passed more than five years ago, the Pentagon is seeking a formal waiver to its obligations under Section 889 of the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act, which barred government agencies from signing contracts with entities that use Huawei components. Its rationale is that Huawei is so firmly entrenched in the systems of countries where it does business — the company accounts for almost one-third of all telecommunications equipment revenue globally — that finding alternatives would be impossible. Meeting the restrictions to the letter would disrupt the Pentagon’s ability to purchase the vast quantities of medical supplies, drugs, clothing and other types of logistical support the military relies on, officials contend. Click here to read… [15]

‘Made in China’ resonating more deeply at home

In October 2021, The Economist advised in an opinion article that Chinese tech giant Huawei should dissolve so its talented engineers could leave to become the next generation of high-tech entrepreneurs. At the time, the logic seemed sound. After a series of knockout punches from America’s judicial and regulatory authorities, Huawei’s 5G telecom infrastructure and smartphone businesses were on their knees. Shut out from Western markets, its wares were met with doubts from consumers elsewhere, too. After all, why would anyone consider buying a piece of technology that requires after-service if the firm may soon go out of business? For individual Huawei employees, remaining with what seemed to be a sinking ship looked like a death sentence for their previously promising careers. Fast forward to 2024, Huawei has bounced back with multiple breakthroughs designed to wean the company off foreign technologies that have become inaccessible due to US-led sanctions and other restrictions. Consider the list. In September 2023, Huawei released the Mate 60 smartphone powered by the Kirin 9000S, a chip manufactured by China’s fellow sanctions-hit Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). In January 2024, the firm revealed HarmonyOS NEXT, a new smartphone operating system completely independent of Android. In April, the firm started building a new R&D centre to develop chipmaking tools, aiming to catch up and surpass the technological frontier now held almost exclusively by Dutch high-end chip machine maker ASML. Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

‘Istanbul deal’ could be used for future talks with Kiev – Putin

Moscow and Kiev could use a tentative agreement reached during talks in Istanbul early in the Ukraine conflict as a basis for further negotiations, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said. The Russian leader was referring to a draft document that was on the verge of being formally signed in the Turkish capital in the spring of 2022. He said last year that under its terms, Ukraine would have committed to “permanent neutrality,” receive certain security guarantees and downsize its military. Moscow claims that the talks were derailed by then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who allegedly advised Kiev to “keep fighting.” Johnson has denied the accusation, however staff who were close to Vladimir Zelensky at time admit he had an influential role. Speaking at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on 04 July, Putin reiterated that Russia – unlike Ukraine, which he said refused to engage with Moscow on direct orders from the West – has never closed the door to peace talks. ”The Istanbul agreements… have not gone away, they were initialled by the head of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, which obviously means that Ukraine was quite satisfied with them,” he said, thanking Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for helping to broker the deal. “These agreements remain on the table and could serve as the basis for continuing those talks.” Click here to read… [17]

US Supreme Court rules Trump has presidential immunity

American presidents have “absolute immunity” for their official actions, the US Supreme Court ruled on 01 July, addressing a series of charges against former President Donald Trump. Federal prosecutors have charged Trump with four criminal counts related to the 2020 presidential election, alleging that he “conspired” to overturn the results by spreading “knowingly false claims” of fraud to obstruct the collection, counting, and certification of the results. “Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority,” the court said in a 6-3 decision. “And he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no immunity for unofficial acts.” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion, which saw the six conservative-leaning justices opposed by the three liberal ones. The decision favours the former president in terms of his tweets to the American public on January 6 and conversations with then-Vice President Mike Pence about his presiding over the certification of election results, as both of those clearly fell within the scope of official duties. However, the verdict allows lower courts to hold evidentiary hearings to determine which actions by Trump may have been unofficial, such as when he contacted state and local election officials about the 2020 vote. Click here to read… [18]

Le Pen’s party falls short of historic milestone in French election

France faces a hung legislature with no clear candidate for prime minister after no party managed to win an outright majority in the second round of the parliamentary election, local media reported on 07 July, citing final count data provided by the Ministry of the Interior. The right-wing National Rally party (RN), linked to Marine Le Pen, which emerged as the frontrunner last weekend, finished third this time, winning 143 seats in the 577-strong National Assembly. The New Popular Front (NFP) also failed to secure an absolute majority in the legislature, winning 182 seats. In the first-round last weekend, it secured only 32 mandates compared to RN’s 37 but managed to boost results dramatically following “tactical withdrawals” by hundreds of candidates. President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal Ensemble coalition trailed the left with 168 seats, according to Le Monde. Turnout this weekend is estimated to have been 67.1%, according to Ipsos Talan, which would be the highest since 1997 if confirmed. Macron has refused to address the nation following the vote. The Elysee Palace said the president will analyse the election results before making any further steps, adding that he would wait for the new parliament to be formed to “take the necessary decisions.” The head of state would “respect the choice of the French people,” the statement added. Click here to read… [19]

Iran’s Voters Elect Their First Reformist President in Two Decades

Iranians turned out in higher numbers than in previous votes to elect a reformist president who ran on a platform of re-engaging with the West and loosening the country’s strict moral codes for women. Liberal voters, confronted with a stark choice between a cautious reformer and a tough hard-liner, shook off some of the disillusionment that had led to very low turnout in the initial presidential vote a week ago and turned out to the polls for a runoff that put a reform candidate in office for the first time in two decades. Little-known politician Masoud Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old surgeon, won with more than 53% of the vote, beating his hard-line rival Saeed Jalili, 58, according to official results announced by the Interior Ministry on state television. Turnout was 49.8%, up from 40% in the initial election and at the high end of speculation ahead of the vote. Now Pezeshkian will have to operate in the treacherous theatre of Iranian politics to manage a battered economy and an increasingly disaffected population that has erupted in protests repeatedly over the past decade. He has vowed to work to restore a 2015 pact that lifted international sanctions in exchange for curbs on Iran’s nuclear program, rein in the country’s hated morality police who force women to cover their hair and stand against curbs on the internet. Click here to read… [20]

China pressures Taiwan's Lai with most military flights in nearly 2 years

China has sent the most military aircraft in nearly two years across the informal dividing line with Taiwan, in what Taipei sees as a campaign of intimidation against new Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te. Taiwan's Defense Ministry reported that 175 Chinese military planes flew across the Taiwan Strait median line in June. The single-month figure was the highest since 290 flights in August 2022, when then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan sparked a backlash from Beijing. The tally topped the 149 crossings in April 2023, when then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen travelled to the U.S. The number of median line crossings "is a barometer of the intensity of the military and political pressure on Taiwan," said Wang Tsun-yen, an associate research fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research. More Chinese military aircraft have gone beyond the boundary under President Xi Jinping's leadership. The flights have continued into July. Taiwan's Defense Ministry said 02 July that 13 People's Liberation Army aircraft were detected operating around Taiwan in 24 hours. Of these, 10 crossed the median line. Six ships were spotted in the area as well, according to the ministry. "We have monitored the situation and responded accordingly," the ministry said. More Chinese helicopters, drones and other aircraft have flown over Taiwan's east side, the far side of the island from mainland China's perspective. Click here to read… [21]

U.S. faces aircraft carrier shortage as tensions rise everywhere

The U.S. Navy faces a shortage of aircraft carriers on the Atlantic coast with no East Coast-based ship ready for deployment to replace the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, which has been responding against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea for months, as the country focuses on bolstering its presence in the Pacific Sea amid fraught tensions with China. The U.S. Navy instead has redirected the USS Theodore Roosevelt, a San Diego-based carrier, to move from the South China Sea to the Red Sea as a stopgap measure, until the next East Coast-based carrier is ready. The Navy is stretched dangerously thin, analysts say, as the U.S. seeks to address crises in Ukraine, Israel and the Red Sea, all the while keeping an eye on China in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. James Holmes, a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, told Nikkei Asia that the U.S. Navy has too few ships to meet the demand -- at a time when demand is multiplying in theatres all around the Eurasian periphery. "The tendency among decision makers in Washington is to try to meet all demands," he said. But trying to do everything means that "we thin out the naval resources available for any given theatre of operations, weakening us relative to competitors in that theatre. If we're weaker we may not prevail if we get in a fight." Click here to read… [22]

China and Russia's security bloc tightens bonds as it expands

Leaders from China, Russia, Central Asia and beyond gathered in Kazakhstan this week and signed a declaration to strengthen cooperation on everything from economic development, trade and energy to counterterrorism and anti-narcotics policies. The venue was the annual meeting of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional security grouping that sees itself as a potential counterweight to the West's influence but comprises disparate countries with varying interests. The summit brought together the leaders of the organization's nine member states, with the exception of India's Narendra Modi, who was represented by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. A number of other world leaders took part, including from Turkey, Azerbaijan and Belarus. The summit had the appearance of a talking shop for mostly authoritarian leaders, but United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who also attended, cast it in a positive light. In the run-up to the event, Guterres told Kazakhstan's Silk Way TV channel, "When the superpowers are at odds with each other, countries like Kazakhstan have a very important role, and organizations like [the] U.N. and the Shanghai Cooperation Council have a very important role." He remarked on the need for institutions to address conflicts, create fairer international economic relations, reform financial bodies to benefit developing countries and take a global view of human rights. Click here to read… [23]

Japan must strengthen NATO ties to safeguard global peace, PM says

Russia’s deepening military cooperation with North Korea has underlined the need for Japan to forge closer ties with NATO as regional security threats become increasingly intertwined, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told Reuters. In written remarks ahead of his attendance at a NATO summit in Washington DC this week, Kishida also signalled concern over Beijing’s alleged role in aiding Moscow’s two-year-old war in Ukraine, although he did not name China. “The securities of the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific are inseparable, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its deepened military cooperation with North Korea are strong reminders of that,” Kishida said. “Japan is determined to strengthen its cooperation with NATO and its partners,” he added. The world, the Japanese leader said, should not tolerate attempts by some countries to disrupt the established international order and reiterated a warning that Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow. He also urged cooperation to confront new security threats that transcend geographical boundaries, such as cyber-attacks and conflicts in space. South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, which along with Japan are known as the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4), are also attending the July 10-11 meeting with NATO leaders. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol told Reuters this week that he planned to discuss the threat Pyongyang poses to Europe by deepening its Russia ties. Click here to read… [24]

RPT-As the Dalai Lama turns 89, exiled Tibetans fear a future without him

In a monastery beneath snow-capped mountains in northern India, the Buddhist monk entrusted with protecting the Dalai Lama and foretelling his people's future is concerned. The Dalai Lama turns 89 on July 06 and China insists it will choose his successor as Tibet's chief spiritual leader. That has the Medium of Tibet's Chief State Oracle contemplating what might come next. "His Holiness is the fourteenth Dalai Lama, then there will be a fifteenth, sixteenth, seventeenth," the medium, known as the Nechung, said. "In countries, leaders change, and then that story is over. But in Tibet it works differently." Tibetan Buddhists believe that learned monastics are reincarnated after death as newborns. The Dalai Lama, who is currently recuperating in the United States from a medical procedure, has said he will clarify questions about succession - including if and where he will be reincarnated - around his ninetieth birthday. As part of a reincarnation identification process, the medium will enter a trance to consult the oracle. The incumbent Dalai Lama is a charismatic figure who popularised Buddhism internationally and won a Nobel Peace Prize in 1989 for keeping alive the Tibetan cause in exile. Beijing sees him as a dangerous separatist, though he has embraced what he calls a "Middle Way" of peacefully seeking genuine autonomy and religious freedom within China. Click here to read… [25]

Houthis Escalate Attacks, Disrupting Key Maritime Chokepoint in June

About eight months after Iran-backed Houthi rebels began seriously disrupting maritime traffic in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, June recorded the highest number of missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels this year and the second-largest since December. As instability in the Middle East intensifies, Houthi rebels have sunk one commercial vessel in recent weeks and have introduced kamikaze drone boats to their arsenal. Despite efforts of the US, British, and European navies sailing in the critical maritime chokepoint, attempting to ensure freedom of navigation, the Houthis managed to conduct 16 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels in June, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from naval forces operating in the Middle East. The surge in attacks is alarming, considering President Biden's Operation Prosperity Guardian, launched at the start of this year to ensure freedom of navigation, has been without success in neutralizing threats and restoring security for commercial shipping. Instead, the consequence of failure has been emerging supply chain snarls and supply shocks, resulting in soaring containerized shipping rates. "The Houthis have proven to be quite the formidable force. This is a nonstate actor that fields a larger arsenal and is really able to give a headache to the Western coalition," said Sebastian Bruns, a naval expert at the Center for Maritime Strategy and Security and the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University in Germany, who was quoted by Foreign Policy. Click here to read… [26]

West African leaders’ summit opens as coup-hit countries form alliance

A West African leaders’ summit has opened a day after the military rulers of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger forged a new alliance severing ties with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The ECOWAS summit is being hosted in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, after several West African leaders called for a resumption of dialogue with the three coup-hit Sahel countries, which signed a new defence pact on July 06 during a summit of their own in Niamey, the capital of Niger. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger announced the pact, known as the Alliance of Sahel States, last September. It allows them to cooperate in the event of armed rebellion or external aggression. The three countries withdrew from ECOWAS in January after the regional bloc’s tough stand against the coups. Reporting from Abuja, Al Jazeera’s Ahmed Idris said the timing of July 06’s announcement by the Sahel alliance was aimed at showing the three countries can do without the regional bloc. “But some analysts say Mali and Niger in particular could face difficulties if all member countries of ECOWAS decide to isolate the two landlocked countries,” he said. “Right now, the military leaders of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger seem to have momentum on their side, and they are scouting the global community for support. Click here to read… [27]

Many Palestinians Pin Postwar Hopes on Leader Jailed by Israel for Two Decades

The most popular Palestinian leader has been sitting in Israeli prisons for over 20 years. Marwan Barghouti is the only Palestinian leader with widespread support in Gaza and the West Bank, as opposed to a decimated Hamas and a currently reviled Palestinian Authority, at a moment when Palestinians are seeking strong leadership. The problem for his supporters is that he is serving five life sentences and has rarely been able to address the public since 2002. Barghouti’s face can be found displayed in the streets and cafes of the West Bank. On the concrete wall that cuts off the occupied Palestinian territory from Israel is a 25-foot mural of the enduring image of Barghouti after his murder-and-terrorism trial in 2004: in a prison uniform, arms raised in handcuffs. “Sometimes I look up at the wall and forget that there is anything left for us, but when I want to gather faith I think of Marwan,” said Sa’ud Lutfi, a West Bank Street vendor working near the wall, the mural of the leader with the words “Free Barghouti” looming behind him. “He might be the only hope left for us Palestinians, so geographically, socially and politically divided.” To his supporters, Barghouti is a jailed freedom fighter akin to Nelson Mandela, imprisoned by an occupying force and ready to lead his people to freedom. Click here to read… [28]

NATO to Establish Kyiv Post, and Seeks to ‘Trump-Proof’ Ukraine Aid

NATO will station a senior civilian official in Kyiv, among a raft of new measures designed to shore up long-term support for Ukraine that are expected to be announced at a summit in Washington next week, U.S. and alliance officials say. The steps seek to buttress Ukraine’s prospects to eventually join the alliance without offering it membership. They come amid a right-wing political surge across Europe and the growing possibility that former President Donald Trump could return to the White House and reduce American support for Ukraine. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is also establishing a new command in Wiesbaden, Germany, to coordinate the provision of military equipment to Kyiv and the training of Ukrainian troops. The operation, to be called NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, will be staffed by nearly 700 U.S. and other allied personnel from across the 32-country alliance. It will take over much of a mission that has been run by the American military since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The new initiatives have been in development for months, but they take on new urgency following President Biden’s weak performance in his televised debate with Trump on June 28 and Trump’s complaints about the money the U.S. has spent on Ukraine. Click here to read… [29]

Why is the US Typhon missile system being withdrawn from the Philippines?

Manila’s announcement that a US mid-range missile system will be withdrawn from the Philippines within months is a “gesture” to ease tensions with Beijing in the disputed South China Sea, but the system could still be redeployed to the region, analysts said. Colonel Louie Dema-ala, a Philippine Army spokesman, said on 02 July the Typhon weapons system deployed in his country would return to the United States in September “as per plan” once other defence equipment used during joint exercises with the US military had been shipped back. “The US Army is currently shipping out their equipment that we used during Balikatan and Salaknib [exercises],” Dema-ala said. However, Dema-ala did not say why Washington was stopping the deployment. In April, US Army Pacific announced that the service had “successfully” deployed its Mid-Range Capability missile system on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon as part of Balikatan and Salaknib annual exercises between the Philippines and the US military. Philippine troops have reportedly been taught how to use and maintain the Typhon system, but it was not used in live-fire exercises, according to Dema-ala. It was the first time such a weapon system had been deployed in the Asia-Pacific region since the 1987 US-Soviet Union Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty prohibited the development and possession of land-based missiles with a range of 500km to 5,500km. Click here to read… [30]

Iran’s Sahand Warship Capsizes in Bandar Abbas Port, Fars Says

Several people were injured in an accident during repair work on Iran’s Sahand destroyer, the semi-official Fars news agency reported. The incident likely occurred during repairs to Sahand’s propulsion system or its ballast tank at the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, Fars reported. Unconfirmed images posted by local media showed the 96-meter (315-foot) vessel capsized in port. The warship tilted and had become partially submerged, but can be refloated and repaired, according to Fars. The Sahand joined Iran’s Navy fleet in 2018 and is equipped with cruise missiles and stealth technologies designed to evade enemy radars, according to state media. The frigate recently led a flotilla of Iranian vessels deployed to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden amid attacks by Iran-backed Houthis on commercial ships in the region. Click here to read… [31]

Health

Russian experts sound alarm over post-Covid health issue

A significant number of Russians who recovered from Covid-19 are suffering from further devastating effects of the disease such as lung fibrosis, according to the Russian Health Ministry’s top pulmonologist Sergey Avdeev. Specialists in the country have issued a warning as emerging evidence indicates that a substantial proportion of infected individuals, particularly people over 60, may experience prolonged post-Covid aftereffects. Research shows that an increasing number of elderly people who had recovered from Covid-19 were at serious risk of developing post-infection lung fibrosis. Potentially deadly, pulmonary fibrosis is a disease in which tissue deep in the lungs becomes scarred, making the tissue thick and stiff, causing shortness of breath and making it harder for blood to get enough oxygen. According to Avdeev, Covid-19, which is still being studied, has presented new challenges for pulmonologists, mainly because of the large number of patients suffering long-term side effects. “We have been actively dealing with post-Covid pulmonary problems recently,” Avdeev said in an interview with Lenta on Thursday. He noted that health problems linked to post-Covid conditions include not only lung damage but also affect other organs and systems. “From this point of view, Covid, of course, has forced us to evaluate pulmonary problems in a new way,” he added. Click here to read… [32]

Japan to subsidize antibiotics supply chain to reduce China exposure

Japan will soon move to support the domestic antibiotics industry as part of public and private efforts to reduce the supply chain's heavy exposure to China. The measures will include subsidies to makers of active ingredients. A government purchasing scheme is also planned. The new program will be created as early as the current fiscal year. Japanese companies make finished antibiotics products at home. But making active ingredients is too expensive in Japan, and production of them is generally handled abroad. Active ingredients for beta-lactam antibiotics, used in surgeries, come nearly entirely from China. In 2019, Japan experienced an antibiotics shortage due to a Chinese production shutdown, delaying surgeries. In 2022, the Japanese government designated antibiotics a critical product qualifying for support under economic security legislation passed that year. Certain Japanese manufacturers, such as Meiji Seika Pharma and Shionogi Pharma, are engaging in capital spending toward producing active ingredients for antibiotics. The health ministry has decided to provide roughly 55 billion yen ($341 million) in assistance toward this end. Full-fledged supplies are not expected to begin until fiscal 2025 or later. Chinese suppliers have an edge in efficiently producing ingredients in large batches at low cost. At present, Japanese producers face steep odds in being able to compete and be profitable. Click here to read… [33]