Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (17-23 June 2024)

Economic

China's influence on U.N. space agency grows as top funder

China has been making the largest voluntary contribution to a United Nations outer space agency in recent years, underscoring the country's growing ambition in setting rules for space projects. In 2022, China accounted for $340,000 of about $1.39 million in total voluntary contributions to the U.N. Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA). Between 2018 and 2022, the only year China was not the top funder was 2021, when it did not provide any subsidies. Although UNOOSA receives less voluntary funding than most U.N. agencies, the body helps shape international law on space development. The size of a country's voluntary contribution reflects its level of involvement in those activities. In many cases, the voluntary grant is allocated to special projects the country leads in conjunction with UNOOSA. China directs most of its funds toward Beijing-based UN-SPIDER -- short for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response -- according to a source close to UNOOSA. As the standoff with the U.S. has deepened in recent years, China has been highlighting its international cooperation, such as by inviting other countries to send crews to its space station. "International space law, such as those governing use of resources from the moon, is still in its formative stages, and China has become eager to reflect its own interests in the rulemaking as much as possible," said a senior official involved in space policy for the Group of Seven major industrialized countries. Click here to read… [2]

Weakening yuan could be what China needs, but not what it wants

China's policy makers are facing a tough call on where they want the yuan to stand as the tightly controlled currency hits a seven-month low against the U.S. dollar, approaching its weakest level since 2008. A weaker yuan could help boost exports and bring inflation to the economy but risks undermining President Xi Jinping's ambitions to make it a global currency. On June 21, the People's Bank of China set the daily fixing -- a benchmark where the currency is allowed to trade -- at 7.1196 against the dollar, the weakest since Nov. 23. Pan Gongsheng, the governor of PBOC, told a major financial forum in Shanghai on June 19 that the yuan exchange rate has "maintained relative stability in a complex environment." The central bank will "maintain exchange rate flexibility" using the fixing. But foreign investors are overwhelmingly predicting a softer yuan by the year-end, as expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut scale back. Earlier this month, the Fed kept interest rates at the highest level in more than two decades and officials projected only one rate cut this year. The PBOC also kept its benchmark rate steady this month, but some economists expect the central bank to loosen monetary policy as it battles a property market downturn. Click here to read… [3]

India Beats China in Stock Performance

Not many stock markets can hold a candle to the red-hot Nasdaq. India is an exception. Strong profit growth, geopolitical tailwinds and favourable demographics have presented a compelling investment case for the country. From the end of 2019 through June 18, the MSCI India Index surged 110%, ahead of the U.S. tech-heavy index’s 99% gain. Even more surprising, though, is how well India has fared compared with what is—for now, at least—the world’s largest emerging stock market: MSCI China is down by 30% over the same period. The contrasting fortunes of the two Asian markets mirror their economic realities. China’s imploding housing market continues to be a drag on its economy while a regulatory crackdown has sunk the country’s once-highflying tech companies. Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, for example, has lost around three-quarters of its value since its peak in 2020. India’s market, on the other hand, is riding powerful economic tailwinds. Its economy grew by 7.8% year over year in the first quarter—the fastest among major economies. That has fed through to corporate earnings: Net profit for listed Indian companies grew 17% year over year for the quarter ended in March, according to Morgan Stanley. Developed countries’ drive to diversify their supply chains away from China has led to an investment boom in manufacturing. Click here to read… [4]

Fossil fuel use, emissions hit record highs in 2023, industry report says

Global fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions hit record highs last year, even as renewables generated more energy than ever before, an industry report has found. Fossil fuel consumption rose 1.5 percent compared with 2022, while emissions increased 2.1 percent, the Statistical Review of World Energy report showed on June 20. At the same time, renewables’ share of energy consumption hit 14.6 percent, up 0.4 percent from the previous year. Nick Wayth, CEO of the Energy Institute, said that while demand for fossil fuels is peaking in advanced economies, economic development and improvements in quality of life in emerging economies continue to drive fossil growth. “The progress of the transition is slow, but the big picture masks diverse energy stories playing out across different geographies,” Wayth said in a foreword to the report. The Global South accounted for 56 percent of total energy consumption, with its use growing at twice the rate of the global average, the report said. China was by far the largest consumer of coal – accounting for 56 percent of the world’s total consumption – while India’s consumption exceeded that of Europe and North America combined for the first time ever, according to the report. By contrast, coal consumption in Europe and North America fell to its lowest levels since 1965, the report said. In the United States, coal consumption fell by 17 percent and has halved over the last decade. Click here to read… [5]

China Should Explain Growing Anomaly in Trade Numbers, US Says

Chinese customs data suggest the country is running a trade surplus that’s much bigger than the one reported in its balance of payments, and Beijing should clarify why the numbers are different, the US Treasury said. The surplus according to the customs figures was almost $230 billion bigger in 2023 than the one reported by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the Treasury said in its semi-annual foreign-exchange report on June 20. The average gap between the two datasets since 2000 has been just $7 billion, it said. The growing discrepancy has drawn attention from various economists and international organizations in recent years. The true size of the surplus is a key question right now because Beijing is relying on foreign trade to drive growth, after a housing bust lowered consumption at home — raising objections from trade partners who say their markets are getting swamped by Chinese exports. The difference between the two sets of numbers in 2023 was equivalent to more than 1% of China’s gross domestic product. A year earlier, the SAFE attributed some of the gap to increased use by multinational companies of a special type of free trade zone, where they outsource the manufacture of goods to Chinese firms. But the Treasury said it’s “not clear what trends would drive these differences to expand over the last three years,” and called on China to provide further quantitative evidence to clarify it. Click here to read… [6]

U.S. as many as 15 years behind China on nuclear power, report says

The U.S. is as many as 15 years behind China on developing high-tech nuclear power as Beijing’s state-backed technology approach and extensive financing give it the edge, a report said on June 17. China has 27 nuclear reactors under construction with average construction timelines of about seven years, far faster than other countries, said the study by Information Technology & Innovation Foundation, a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute. “China’s rapid deployment of ever-more modern nuclear power plants over time produces significant scale economies and learning-by-doing effects, and this suggests that Chinese enterprises will gain an advantage at incremental innovation in this sector going forward,” the report said. The U.S. has the world’s largest fleet of nuclear power plants and President Joe Biden’s administration considers the virtually emissions-free electricity source to be critical in curbing climate change. But after two large plants in Georgia came online in 2023 and 2024 billions of dollars over budget and delayed by years, no U.S. nuclear reactors are being built. A high-tech plant that had been planned to be built at a U.S. lab was cancelled last year. China’s state-owned banks can offer loans as low as 1.4%, far lower than available in Western economies. Its nuclear power industry has benefited from sustained state support and localization strategies that has allowed China to dominate sectors like renewable power and EVs. Click here to read… [7]

Shale's Efficiency Boost Is Not Guarantee of Strong Future Growth

HSBC's recent forecast suggests U.S. shale oil production will keep rising for another four years before peaking, but the real story is more complex. Wood Mackenzie highlights a new era of efficiency gains in shale, yet these advancements come with significant costs that could hinder future growth. Despite last year's impressive 1 million barrels per day increase, driven by unexpected efficiency improvements, the sustainability of such gains is far from guaranteed. Last year, the U.S. shale industry surprised pretty much everyone, possibly even some within its circles, by boosting production more than forecasters expected amid a consistent decline in rig numbers. One of the reasons for this growth was the price of oil, which was still comfortably high in the early months of 2023. The other big reason was a new urge among drillers to make their drilling more efficient however they could. Fracking, meanwhile, has become faster and cheaper, laterals have become longer, and richer companies have started fracking several wells simultaneously. All this has helped with the production boost—and with declining well productivity. Well productivity in the Permian, as Reuters reported back in April, citing Enverus data, has shed 15% since 2020. This was not exactly an unexpected development, given the nature of shale oil reservoirs and the nature of fracking. Click here to read… [8]

Iran Says U.S. Can No Longer Obstruct Its Oil Production and Exports

Any future U.S. administration cannot prevent Iran from boosting its oil production and exports, Iranian Petroleum Minister Jawad Owji said on June 19. “With the measures that have been taken in President Raisi’s government in the field of the oil industry, I should announce that any government that comes to power in the US cannot prevent the export and production of Iranian oil,” Iranian media quoted Owji as telling Parliament today. Over the past three years, Iran has increased its crude oil production by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), the petroleum minister said. During this period, Iran launched 150 oil industry projects, worth a total of $34 billion, according to the minister’s remarks from a few days ago carried by the news service Shana. The oil industry grew by 20% last year, the highest growth rate of any Iranian sector of the economy, Owji was quoted as saying. Last month, the minister said that Iran would soon launch 32 oil industry projects worth a total investment of $4.6 billion. Iran plans to increase its crude oil output to 4 million bpd, the country’s Tasnim news agency reported at the end of May, as cited by Reuters. Click here to read… [9]

China Eyes Trade War Targets Across Europe for Retaliation

As in past disputes, China looks to be readying a series of actions to punish the European Union for its proposed tariffs on electric cars. Things were different in the big trade war with the US, which featured sweeping penalties on both sides. This time, Beijing’s targeted playbook looks more like the one it deployed against Australia a few years ago — with the government and state media already publicly identifying specific products that could be about to get taxed. Here are some of the likely targets, and the parts of Europe where the blow will land hardest. The first product in China’s crosshairs was European brandy. Beijing announced an anti-dumping investigation in January, which could take a year or more — but the Ministry of Commerce could also announce preliminary tariffs at any time, as it did during a similar probe into Australian wine. Food and agricultural goods are often targets for trade barriers. In the past Beijing has targeted goods that aren’t essential, or can be sourced elsewhere, but where China is a large market for the exporter. That means the damage to Chinese consumers is low, but the hit to producers can be high. Brandy fits that bill. Chinese drinkers can always find alternatives, but the impact on France - one of the biggest supporters of Europe’s EV probe - would be significant. Click here to read… [10]

EU Agrees First Russia Sanctions Hitting Some LNG Shipments

The European Union has approved a new package of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, seeking to tighten the enforcement of restrictions by widening the scope of measures to its network of accomplices and hit Moscow’s revenues. The measures target Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers, and transshipments of liquefied natural gas to third countries. While this is the EU’s first move to restrict Russian LNG operations, the bloc will still allow deliveries of the fuel from Moscow to the region. The sanctions also target companies in countries including China, that have been helping the Kremlin get around earlier trade restrictions. The package — the bloc’s 14th since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine — includes: A ban on the transshipment of Russian LNG to third countries via the EU, including a prohibition on reloading services as well as ship-to-ship and ship-to-shore transfers. Imports into the EU are still allowed. A prohibition on providing investments, services and goods to new LNG projects in Russia. Sanctions on a dozen vessels that are part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, used to get around a price cap on oil and other trade measures. Banning EU firms operating outside Russia from directly connecting to the Russian Central Bank’s Swift-equivalent SPFS, and banning transactions with listed firms using the system to circumvent sanctions. Click here to read… [11]

Western weapons makers on hiring spree – FT

Western defense companies are recruiting workers at the fastest rate since the end of the Сold War, the Financial Times has reported. The hiring spree comes after governments ramped up military spending since the start of the Ukraine conflict, according to the newspaper. Twenty large and medium-sized US and European defense and aerospace companies are looking to employ tens of thousands of people this year, the FT wrote, citing the findings of its own survey. The largest US contractors – Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics – have nearly 6,000 job openings, while ten companies surveyed are seeking to increase staff numbers by almost 37,000 in total, or nearly 10% of their aggregate workforce, the newspaper reported. Firms are looking to fill a range of positions, from welders and mechanics to engineers, software developers, and cyber security analysts, and at all levels from apprentice to late-stage career executive, the FT added. Italian defense contractor Leonardo is conducting “an intense search for new hires, even more intense than during previous conflicts such as Iraq or Afghanistan,” the firm’s chief personnel officer, Antonio Liotti, stated. Ammunition producers, notably Germany’s Rheinmetall and Norwegian-Finnish Nammo, are among those with the most aggressive hiring plans, the FT reported. Missile manufacturers such as Thales and MBDA, whose arms have been used by Ukraine, plan to increase their workforces by up to 17%. Click here to read… [12]

Ecuador stops waiving visas for Chinese nationals because of an increase in irregular migration

Ecuador on June 18 announced the suspension of an agreement with China that had waived visas for Chinese citizens travelling to the South American country, citing a “worrying” increase in irregular migration. Ecuador's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the suspension of the bilateral agreement is temporary and would start on July 1. It added that the measure was taken after authorities saw that around 50% of Chinese nationals entering Ecuador didn't leave the country “through regular routes” nor within the permitted 90 days they were allowed to stay under the waiver agreement. The development would effectively mean that Ecuador was reinstating visas for Chinese citizens, but the Foreign Ministry did not provide any details. Since 2023, people from China are among the top nationalities of migrants reaching the United States. Ecuador, one of the only two mainland countries in the Americas that offer visa-free entry to Chinese nationals, has become a popular starting point for Chinese migrants who would then trek northward through Central America before entering the United States. The other country is the Republic of Suriname. The Washington-based think tank Niskanen Center, citing official data by the Ecuadorian government, said that Chinese nationals entered Ecuador 48,381 times in 2023 but only left 24,240 times. The difference of 24,141 was the highest of any nationality, according to Niskanen. Click here to read… [13]

Niger revokes French nuclear group’s licence at major uranium mine

Niger’s military government has revoked the operating licence of French nuclear fuel producer Orano at one of the world’s biggest uranium mines, as it continues to cut ties with former colonial power France. State-owned Orano said on June 20 that it had been ordered out of the Imouraren mine in northern Niger which sits on an estimated 200,000 tonnes of the metal, used for nuclear power and weapons. Reporting from Abuja, Al Jazeera’s Ahmed Idris said the Nigerien Ministry of Mining had warned it would revoke Orano’s licence if development of the mine had not started by June 19. Orano insisted in a statement on June 20 that it had recently resumed “activities” at the site, reopening “infrastructures” to accommodate “construction teams”, its work in line with the wishes of the government, which came to power in a coup in July last year. Mining was meant to have started at Imouraren in 2015 but development was frozen after the collapse in world uranium prices in the wake of the 2011 Japanese disaster when a tsunami hit the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in the northeast of the country. The Nigerien government’s decision to revoke Orano’s licence may have wider geopolitical stakes. As Al Jazeera’s Idris noted, relations between Niger and its former colonial ruler took a “nosedive” after last year’s coup. Click here to read… [14]

Saudi Arabia’s $54 Billion Haul Still Leaves It Craving Cash

Saudi Arabia has been in a dash for cash. The kingdom hauled in more than $54 billion this year to fund its massive spending ambitions—equivalent to about 5% of its gross domestic product. It loaded up on debt, sold shares in crown-jewel oil company Aramco and cashed out bets on U.S. tech giants. Even with the fresh injection of money, however, Saudi Arabia faces increasingly hard fiscal choices, with growing bills for planned futuristic megaprojects and an economic overhaul—and narrowing ways to pay for them. In all, Saudi Arabia has launched well over $1 trillion of projects under the umbrella of Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to rapidly pivot the economy away from oil. Faced with limited funds, Saudi officials say they have begun to scale back some of those plans, which face funding gaps of hundreds of billions of dollars. “Some of the recent transactions will be difficult to repeat,” said Tim Callen, a visiting fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute think tank in Washington. He believes the Saudis expect oil revenues to rise significantly in future years, a risky approach that could mean tough choices, especially if oil prices fall. Saudi officials have said they are confident they are on stable fiscal footing—and have plenty of levers to pull to keep funding their investments. Click here to read… [15]

China’s rural-urban divide, tax system weighs down economic potential, former official says

China should narrow gaps in its treatment of urban and rural inhabitants, better protect private property and overhaul its tax system to ease a number of socioeconomic issues, said a former official with the country’s top economic planner. These changes are essential to resolving “imbalances” linked to “incomplete” market reforms, said Xu Lin, once the general director of financial and budgetary affairs for the National Development and Reform Commission. Xu named the most pervasive of these imbalances as those between urban and rural China, those between regions, those among industries and the disparity between levels of consumption and investment. “The reason for these imbalances is the same,” Xu said in an interview with the Post. “My personal view is that marketisation hasn’t been fully realised … Reforms need to take another step forward to let the market have a definitive effect on resource allocation.” Xu made his case as the Communist Party prepares for the third plenum of its Central Committee, scheduled for July. The committee is expected to release a plan to shore up the economy as erratic figures for factory activity, property purchases and consumer spending threaten to dampen the country’s post-pandemic recovery. One change Xu deemed necessary was the cancellation of the hukou, a system of household registration that restricts access to certain public services among migratory populations, most commonly those who move from China’s rural areas to urban centres looking for work. Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

Crimean Bridge has little military value – Ukraine

The Crimean Bridge, which Kiev maintains is a legitimate military target, is currently seldom used by Russian forces, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy has said. Senior Ukrainian officials, including Vladimir Zelensky, have justified the country’s repeated attempts to destroy the link between the Crimean Peninsula and Krasnodar Region by claiming that it has significant logistical value to the Russian Defense Ministry. Dmitry Pletenchuk, a Ukrainian naval spokesman, undermined that position in an interview with RBK Ukraine published on June 17. Asked what effect the destruction of the bridge would have on Russian operations, he said it would not be significant. “It is almost not used for military logistics. Less than a quarter or the volume goes over it. The rest goes over the ferry line,” he said. He claimed without presenting evidence that the current situation was the result of “damage caused to it” by a Ukrainian drone attack. Ukraine has caused significant damage to the Crimean Bridge twice. In October 2022, a truck carrying explosives disguised as rolls of plastic tape was blown up on the bridge. It killed five civilians, including a commercial vehicle driver. And in July 2023 a naval drone attack took place, to which Pletenchuk may have been referring. A couple was killed and their daughter injured when their car was caught in the explosion. Click here to read… [17]

North Korea and Russia sign 'strategic partnership' during summit

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on June 19 signed a comprehensive agreement to elevate bilateral relations, in a step toward establishing a framework for deeper long-term cooperation between their heavily sanctioned countries. Kim said at a joint press conference that the two sides had signed a "strategic partnership" agreement that upgrades their ties "to the level of an alliance." The agreement "lays the foundation for the realization of the grand leadership by the two countries and the construction of strong states, while firmly protecting regional and global peace and the security environment," Kim said. Russian news agency Tass reported that Putin hailed "a truly groundbreaking document that reflects the desire of the two countries ... to bring our relations to a new qualitative level." It also said he pointed out that the pact "sets large-scale tasks and benchmarks for deepening Russia-Korean relations in the long term" in "the political, trade and investment, cultural, humanitarian and security spheres." Interfax, meanwhile, said it replaces basic documents from 1961, 2000 and 2001. The Russian leader arrived in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang early June 19 morning for a summit with Kim, his second visit there following one in 2000. Click here to read… [18]

Vietnam Greets Putin in Boost to Ties, Ignoring US Criticism

Vietnam welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin, underlining its decades-old relationship with Moscow in the face of US criticism over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin arrived in Hanoi on June 20 from North Korea, where he signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with Kim Jong Un who vowed to “unconditionally” support Russia in the war. “The visit demonstrates that Vietnam actively implements its foreign policy with the spirit of independence, self-reliance, diversification, multilateralism,” according to a statement on Vietnam’s government website. Vietnam and Russia have ties going back decades to the Soviet Union. Hanoi is brushing aside Western criticism of its invitation to Putin, who last visited Vietnam in 2017 when it hosted the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. The US Embassy in Hanoi, in a statement June 17, said “no country should give Putin a platform to promote his war of aggression and otherwise allow him to normalize his atrocities.” Russia’s Novatek PJSC plans liquefied natural gas projects in Vietnam, Putin wrote in the country’s Communist Party newspaper Nhan Dan ahead of his visit, without providing details. He also mentioned an initiative to establish a centre for nuclear energy and technologies with the support of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom. Click here to read… [19]

Terrorist Attacks in Russia’s Dagestan Target Synagogue, Churches, Police

Fifteen police officers were among the dead from attacks June 23 on a synagogue, police station and two churches in Russia’s restive North Caucasus republic of Dagestan, the latest incidents in a trend of rising violence across Russia in the past year. Russian authorities said four civilians had also been killed in the attacks, in which assailants with automatic rifles opened fire on houses of worship in the republic’s capital of Makhachkala and the city of Derbent, in apparently coordinated attacks. Russian authorities said the attacks were carried out by followers of an international terrorist organization, without giving further details, the TASS state-run news agency reported. Six gunmen were later killed, according to TASS. Dagestan’s governor, Sergei Melikov, said June 24 the situation in Dagestan was under control as he called for calm, in a video posted on the Telegram app. “Panic and fear is what these non-humans were banking on first and foremost,” Melikov wrote on Telegram. “They won’t get that from Dagestanis!” June 23’rd attacks raise concern about the vulnerability of Russia’s internal security as critics have blamed authorities for diverting resources toward cracking down on political dissent at the expense of targeting homegrown terrorist threats. Senior Russian officials have accused Ukraine and the West of trying to foment instability inside the country. Click here to read… [20]

Netanyahu disbands war cabinet

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dissolved the war cabinet overseeing the conflict in Gaza after a key member, retired general Benny Gantz, resigned from the emergency government, according to media reports. The prime minister reportedly announced the move to ministers at a meeting of the cabinet on June 16. Gantz, a former defense minister without portfolio who entered the war cabinet shortly after the beginning of the conflict with the Palestinian militant group Hamas last October, announced his resignation earlier this month, citing disagreement with Netanyahu’s policies. “The cabinet was in the coalition agreement with [National Unity MK Benny] Gantz at his request. As soon as Gantz left – there is no need for a cabinet anymore,” Netanyahu said, as cited by local media. The prime minister is now expected to hold consultations on the Gaza conflict with a small group of ministers, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who had been in the war cabinet. Shortly after Gantz’s resignation, another minister without portfolio, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, also resigned from the cabinet, where he served as one of three observers. Another observer, Knesset member Yechiel Tropper, made the same announcement. Both Gantz and Eisenkot said they resigned due to Netanyahu’s failure to form a strategy for the war in Gaza. Click here to read… [21]

US working to avert ‘greater war’ between Israel and Hezbollah: Biden envoy

The United States is working to prevent “a greater war” between Israel and Hezbollah, a White House envoy has said amid growing fears of a major conflict between the two sides. Speaking on June 18 during a trip to Lebanon, from where the Iran-aligned armed group is engaged in near daily clashes with Israel, Amos Hochstein said that the US is urgently seeking to calm a conflict that has been threatening to escalate since it started in October with the war in Gaza. Hezbollah and Israel have regularly traded fire across the Israel-Lebanon border over the last eight months. Last week, the Lebanese group fired hundreds of rockets and drones at Israeli military sites after one of its commanders was killed. Speaking after meeting with Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close ally of Hezbollah, Hochstein called for “urgent” de-escalation. “We have seen an escalation over the last few weeks. And what President Biden wants to do is avoid a further escalation to a greater war,” Hochstein told reporters. The US envoy had travelled to Beirut following meetings in Israel on June 17. Israel’s Haaretz reported that he had warned Israeli officials that continuing the Israeli-Hezbollah confrontation could lead to a “wide-scale Iranian attack”. In Beirut, Hochstein said it is in “everyone’s interest” to resolve the conflict quickly and diplomatically. “That is both achievable and it is urgent.” Click here to read… [22]

U.S. shows Japanese officials ICBM launch procedures

Japanese officials have toured a U.S. intercontinental ballistic missile base in the state of Wyoming, learning about the specific procedures leading up to a nuclear missile launch. The visit took place during the bilateral Extended Deterrence Dialogue at Warren Air Force Base in Cheyenne June 13 and June 14. This is the first disclosed tour of an ICBM base during the deterrence dialogues, which were established in 2010. It follows an inspection of the USS Maryland, an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine at Kings Bay Naval Base in Georgia, during the dialogue in June 2022, and an up-close look at a B-2 strategic bomber at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri in June 2023. Such sea-, air-, and land-based platforms are together known as the nuclear triad. The intentional disclosure of the visits, which started in 2022, is believed to be a signal to adversaries like China, Russia and North Korea that the U.S. nuclear umbrella is up and running. In a joint statement released after his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in April, U.S. President Joe Biden reiterated the "unwavering commitment" of the U.S. to defend Japan using its full range of capabilities, "including nuclear capabilities." Click here to read… [23]

Revisions to political fund law pass Diet, skip drastic reforms

The Diet passed contentious legislation on June 19 to prevent a recurrence of a political fund scandal that engulfed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, despite doubts about its effectiveness. The LDP-sponsored bill to revise the Political Fund Control Law was approved by the Upper House during a plenary session with support from its junior coalition partner, Komeito. Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) had backed the bill in a Lower House vote on June 6. However, the opposition party opposed it in the Upper House because separate revisions on an allowance for Diet members were not expected to be enacted during the current Diet session, which closes on June 23. Nobuyuki Baba, leader of Nippon Ishin, had on May 31 agreed with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, president of the LDP, on the revisions to disclose the usage of the allowance covering research, public relations and accommodation expenses, among other reforms. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Democratic Party for the People and the Japanese Communist Party voted against the bill. The revised Political Fund Control Law, which takes effect on Jan. 1, 2026, will require politicians to disclose those who purchased more than 50,000-yen ($315) worth of tickets for fund-raising parties, compared with more than 200,000 yen under the current law. Click here to read… [24]

Civil war in Sudan takes centre stage at UN

Sudan has accused the United Arab Emirates of arming a paramilitary force in the country’s 14-month civil war, prompting a clash at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Al-Harith Idriss al-Harith Mohamed, Sudan’s UN ambassador, accused the UAE late on June 18 of arming the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has been fighting Sudan’s army since April 2023 and faces accusations of ethnic war crimes. The Sudanese envoy said Khartoum has evidence of the weapons supply and his government will submit a file on UAE actions to the International Criminal Court. Speaking to reporters after the meeting, he said he had urged the council to “walk the extra mile by naming and shaming the United Arab Emirates”. Sitting next to Mohamed at the horseshoe-shaped Security Council table, UAE Ambassador Mohamed Abushahab called Sudan’s charge “ludicrous” and designed to distract from “grave violations that are happening on the ground”. “If they seek an end to the conflict and civilian suffering, then why won’t they come to the Jeddah talks? Why are they blocking aid? What are you waiting for?” Abushahab asked. In May, the United States and Saudi Arabia sought to resurrect ceasefire talks in Jeddah that stalled last year due to alleged violations of agreements on both sides. Sudan, however, refused to participate. Click here to read… [25]

At least 200 injured, 100 arrested in Kenya tax protests: Rights groups

At least 200 people were injured and more than 100 arrested across Kenya in nationwide protests against government tax hike plans, rights groups have said. Five groups, including Amnesty International, said late on June 20 in a joint statement that at least 105 protesters had been arrested in a violent crackdown by riot police that included the use of tear gas, water cannon and rubber bullets. In the capital, Nairobi, at least 200 people were injured, with the groups reporting “soft tissue injuries and inhalation of tear gas”, with six “hit by cars while running away from police officers” and five casualties from rubber bullets. Spent cartridges at the scene implied the use of live rounds, they said. Local media reported that an unidentified person died at the Bliss Medical Centre in Nairobi from a gunshot wound to his thigh sustained during the protest. The details tallied with a police report that said a 29-year-old man died during treatment for a wound on his thigh at the same hospital on June 20 night. “We continue to urge the National Police Service to desist from the use of excessive force, intimidation and arbitrary and unlawful arrests of Kenyans,” said the groups, which also included the Kenya Medical Association, the Law Society of Kenya, the Defenders Coalition and the Independent Medical Legal Unit. Click here to read… [26]

‘Only Pirates Do This’: China Wields Axes and Knives in South China Sea Fight

The Chinese coast guard came in small boats with axes, long knives and spears. They used the crude weapons to slash and puncture the Philippine military’s rubber craft. One Chinese boat rammed a Philippine boat at high speed, severing the thumb of a Filipino seaman who was holding on to the side of his ride. During June 17’s frantic events in the South China Sea, the Chinese coast guard crew also boarded a Philippine boat, smashed its outboard motor and communications equipment, and grabbed the Filipino crew’s cell phones. They seized seven disassembled rifles that were packed in cases for delivery to a Philippine outpost, the Philippine military said. “Only pirates do this,” said Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., the Philippine military’s chief of staff. “Only pirates board, steal, and destroy ships, equipment and belongings.” The incident, described by the Philippine armed forces, marked a sharp escalation in China’s use of forceful tactics and intimidation against a U.S. ally in the South China Sea. Its coast guard had never wielded bladed weapons and spears in its previous sea confrontations with the Philippines. Handout photos by the Philippine armed forces show destroyed equipment of a military boat and a deflated rigid-hull inflatable boat after a confrontation with the Chinese coast guard at the Second Thomas Shoal on June 17. Click here to read… [27]

Political clashes, living pressures crash Taiwanese leader Lai’s ratings

A direct clash between Taiwan’s cabinet and the legislature over parliamentary reform on June 21 widened the political divide on the island, with the opposition overriding a cabinet veto of its bills with a 62-strong vote. The mainland-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party had previously united to push through the reform bills last month. The cabinet, which had only 51 votes in its favour, expressed “deep regret” at the outcome and said the Executive Yuan would request a constitutional interpretation of the bills. Cabinet spokesman Chen Shih-kai said the timing of the request “will depend on the president’s promulgation of the laws”. Observers warned that the confrontation would not only significantly affect the administration of the new Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te, but also his popularity. Anticipating defeat, DPP lawmakers had already vowed to take the case to the island’s constitutional court, promising to seek a ruling from the grand justices on whether the bills violated the constitution. The reform bills give lawmakers greater oversight powers of the executive branch, including an expansion of their investigative authority, that would operate in a similar way to the US Congress. Public officials and civil servants who refuse to provide information when questioned by lawmakers, or who make false statements in hearings, would be committing a “contempt of the legislature” and subject to a fine of up to NT$200,000 (US$6,170). Click here to read… [28]

Premier Li Qiang pushes China’s trade, academic agenda during Asia-Pacific tour

China fortified its partnerships from trade to academic collaborations in the Asia-Pacific region during Premier Li Qiang’s recent visits to New Zealand, Australia and Malaysia, with attention centring around exchanges between Beijing and Canberra. Unlike New Zealand and Malaysia that employ a relatively mild approach towards China, Australia – as a more vocal member of the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance with Canada, New Zealand, Britain and the US – is seeking to strike a balance between addressing security concerns and economic development with the world’s second-largest economy. “The visit … by Chinese Premier Li Qiang is a reminder of an old dilemma at the heart of Australia’s engagement with China: how to maintain trade and economic relationships with a country that is not a security partner,” said Angela Lehman, head of research at the Lygon Group consulting firm and chair of the non-profit Foundation for Australian Studies in China. Australian businessmen welcomed the warming relationship with China, highlighted by the first visit by a Chinese premier in seven years as well as a series of on-the-ground collaborations. Trade also remained high on the agenda, particularly imports of live Australian lobsters to China, which have been under an unofficial ban for more than three years. Click here to read… [29]

Fending Off Houthis Requires Double the Fleet, EU Force Says

A naval force deployed by the European Union to protect vessels in the Red Sea needs to more than double in size because of escalating attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels, the head of the operation said. Four EU vessels have been patrolling the waters off the coast of Yemen since February. In that time, they’ve provided “close assistance” to 164 ships, shot down more than a dozen unmanned aerial vehicles and destroyed four anti-ship ballistic missiles, Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis said in an interview on June 19. The Yemen-based Houthis began attacking vessels last year to pressure Israel and its allies over the war in the Gaza Strip. Their campaign has roiled global shipping, forcing many vessels to sail thousands of miles around southern Africa instead — despite the EU operation and US and UK bombing that began in January. A warning by the Yemen-based Houthi movement last month that it will target ships owned by companies that dock a single vessel in Israel has increased the risk for commercial shippers, Gryparis said. He was in Brussels this week to lobby for additional resources. “We don’t have that many assets and the whole area we have to cover is enormous,” he said. “I am pressing all the member states to provide more assets.” Click here to read… [30]

Death Toll at Hajj Rises to 1,300 Amid Scorching Temperatures

More than 1,300 people died during this year’s Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia as the faithful faced extreme high temperatures at Islamic holy sites in the desert kingdom, Saudi authorities announced June 23. Saudi Health Minister Fahd bin Abdurrahman Al-Jalajel said that 83% of the 1,301 fatalities were unauthorized pilgrims who walked long distances in soaring temperatures to perform the Hajj rituals in and around the holy city of Mecca. Speaking with the state-owned Al Ekhbariya TV, the minister said 95 pilgrims were being treated in hospitals, some of whom were airlifted for treatment in the capital, Riyadh. He said the identification process was delayed because there were no identification documents with many of the dead pilgrims. He said the dead were buried in Mecca, without giving a breakdown. The fatalities included more than 660 Egyptians. All but 31 of them were unauthorized pilgrims, according to two officials in Cairo. Egypt has revoked the licenses of 16 travel agencies that helped unauthorized pilgrims travel to Saudi Arabia, authorities said. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief journalists, said most of the dead were reported at the Emergency Complex in Mecca’s Al-Muaisem neighbourhood. Egypt sent more than 50,000 authorized pilgrims to Saudi Arabia this year. Click here to read… [31]

Health

World leaders launch programme to boost vaccine production in Africa

French President Emmanuel Macron has joined several African leaders to kick off a planned $1.1bn project to accelerate vaccine production in Africa, after the COVID-19 pandemic exposed inequalities in access to inoculation. The launch of the African Vaccine Manufacturing Accelerator at an event in Paris on June 20 will provide financial incentives to boost local vaccine manufacturing in the continent. African Union Commission chief Moussa Faki Mahamat welcomed the initiative, saying that it “could become a catalyst for promoting the pharmaceutical industry in Africa and fostering collaboration between member states”. Africa imports “99 percent of its vaccines at an exorbitant cost”, he said. Macron said the programme “will be an essential step towards a genuine African vaccine market”. The European Union said the bloc and its member states will contribute $800m to the vaccine manufacturing scheme. It said the programme will offset start-up costs and ensure demand for vaccines made in Africa. “Importantly, it will also support the sustainable growth of Africa’s manufacturing base and contribute to the African Union’s ambition to produce most vaccines required by African countries on the continent,” the EU said in a statement. Many African leaders and advocacy groups say Africa was unfairly locked out of access to COVID-19 treatment tools, vaccines and testing equipment — which many richer countries bought up in huge quantities — after the pandemic was declared in 2020. Click here to read… [32]

As big pharma exits Nigeria, asthma patients face spiralling costs

When Gloria Mofifoluwa’s friend informed her in March that the price of inhalers had risen in Nigeria, she did not think much about it. The following week, when she went out in Ibadan city to replace her old Ventolin inhaler, the asthma sufferer was shocked to see that many pharmacies were out of stock and the only place it was available sold it for 7,500 naira ($5) – more than double the 2,800 naira ($1.86) she had paid months before. This price jump – which followed the departure from Nigeria of a major health pharmaceutical – was a shock for the 24-year-old undergraduate student who earns a bit of money designing clothes. And the ripple effects were even worse. The pharmaceutical scarcity and rising prices causing stress for asthma sufferers like Mofifoluwa cap off a chain of events that began in May 2023, when Bola Tinubu was elected president. During his inauguration ceremony, Tinubu announced the removal of a fuel subsidy, which resulted in an unprecedented increase in petrol prices. This also affected the cost of various goods and services and contributed to an inflation rate of above 27 percent. The cumulative economic effects have been harsh, especially for the vulnerable – including students and low-income earners. Click here to read… [33]