Bangladesh at the Crossroads: Confronting the Realities of Climate Change

Introduction

The consequences of climate change are felt globally affecting millions of lives and threatening the future development of states, with developing countries facing the extreme implications/vulnerabilities. Bangladesh, a country located in South Asia covering the fertile delta of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Rivers, is one of the world's most sensitive/exposed nations in terms of the detrimental effects of climate change and ecological destruction. The World Risk Report Index 2023 ranks Bangladesh ninth worldwide for climate disaster risk.^[1]

According to a new report released on February 11, 2024, by the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) in collaboration with Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), the country positions seventh^[2] in the global climate risk/vulnerability index 2021.^[3] However, Bangladesh’s current contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stands at just 0.4%.^[4] But in recent years, Bangladesh has witnessed the adverse effects of global warming with rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns. It is further reported that Bangladesh, a country long on the frontline of the global climate change crisis, experienced 185 extreme weather events between 2000 and 2019.^[5] It is to be mentioned that this year Bangladesh witnessed the highest number of heatwave days in a year in 76 years.^[6] All these figures demonstrate how the country is prone to natural disasters.

Climate Vulnerabilities of Bangladesh & Its Repercussions

Bangladesh is one of the largest deltas in the world which is highly vulnerable to natural disasters because of its geographical location, flat,^[7] low-lying landscape, population density, poverty, illiteracy, lack of institutional setup,^[8] etc.^[9] Due to these reasons, the country experiences natural disasters such as cyclones, storms, rising sea levels, salinity Intrusion/coastal erosion, extreme temperature, frequent floods, and drought every year.^[10] However, the severity of these disasters has increased at an unprecedented rate in the past few years due to the looming crisis of climate change. Sudden temperature drops in winter, sweltering and frequent heatwaves in summer, poor rainfall during monsoon, and increased cyclonic activities^[11] have become common occurrences in Bangladesh and a cause of concern for its people.

This change in temperatures is severely affecting agricultural production in a country where over 85% of its residents in rural areas are dependent on agriculture for livelihood. The total rice production in Bangladesh, a primarily rice-eating country, is projected to be reduced every year by 7.4%^[12] until 2050.^[13] So far, 2024 is the hottest year for Bangladesh, recording average temperatures of 40 to 42 degrees Celsius in all the districts.^[14] According to a World Bank report, over the past 44 years, Bangladesh experienced a 0.5°C increase in temperature which is predicted to rise by 1.4 degree Celsius by 2050.^[15] Different reports also suggest that by 2050,^[16] Bangladesh will lose “17% of its territory due to rising sea levels, which will yield to the loss of 30% of the country's agricultural land.” ^[17] It is stated that sea level rise alone will be responsible for 5.8%-9.1% decline in rice production in the country. ^[18] The sea level in Bangladesh is rising by 3.8-5.8 millimetres annually, faster than the global average which might lead to the displacement of around 900,000 people by 2050, affecting the livelihood of coastal communities.^[19] It has been estimated that by 2050, one in every seven people^[20] in Bangladesh will be displaced by climate change.^[21] According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre,^[22] “over the last decade, on average, nearly 700,000 Bangladeshis were displaced each year by natural disasters.” ^[23]

A recent study conducted by the Department of Environment on the projection of sea level rise using satellite altimetry data illustrated that about 12.34%-17.95% of the coastal area of Bangladesh will be submerged due to rising sea levels by the end of this century.^[24] With the sea level rise, also comes the problem of salinization, ruining crops, and contamination of water supplies.^[25] It is estimated that “salinity in the country’s soil has increased by about 26% over the past 35 years,” ^[26] impacting thousands of people. Global sea-level rise and cyclonic effects in the Bay of Bengal are gradually triggering environmental degradation, flood inundation, and mangrove deforestation^[27] in a region that consists of one of the world’s largest mangrove forest—the Sundarbans. It is significant to mention that this coastal forest not only helps in sustaining biodiversity and livelihoods^[28] but also shields Bangladesh from the worst of the region’s many cyclones.^[29] Bangladesh, a lower-middle-income economy, loses an estimated $1 billion per year, due to cyclone-related damages.^[30] Data shows that from 2000 to 2019 Bangladesh suffered economic losses worth $3.72 billion due to climate crisis.^[31] All these statistics provide a grim picture for this South Asian nation which is graduating to the status of developing country by 2026.

Policy Initiatives at National Level

From the government’s side, Bangladesh has taken a number of initiatives to tackle the climate change crisis especially since 2009. Some of their important initiatives are: -

• Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), 2009
• National Adaptation Programme of Action, 2005, updated in 2009^[32]
• Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Act, 2010
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), 2015, Enhanced & Updated in 2021^[33]
• NDC Implementation Road Map, 2018
• Bangladesh Delta Plan, 2100
• Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan 2030
• National Disaster Management Policy, 2015
• Standing Orders on Disaster 2019
• Plan of Action to Implement Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030^[34]
• National Strategy on Internal Displacement Management 2021
• National Plan for Disaster Management 2021-2025
• National Adaptation Plan of Bangladesh 2023-2050
• Bangladesh Energy Efficiency and Conservation Master Plan up to 2030^[35]
• Renewable Energy Policy of Bangladesh, 2008
• Bangladesh National Action Plan for Reducing Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs), 2012, Updated in 2018^[36]

Recently, Finance Minister of Bangladesh Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali has proposed a special allocation of Taka 100 crore for climate change and environmental protection in the national budget for the fiscal year 2024-25.^[37] The proposed fund is expected to support BCCSAP which has facilitated 969 climate-related projects so far, with 721 already completed.^[38]

Support from the International Community/Organizations

At the international level, in December last year the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, International Finance Corporation (IFC), Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ( AIIB), Agence Française de Development (AFD), the European Union and the European Investment Bank (EIB), as part of Team Europe, the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the Government of South Korea, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and the United Kingdom announced a collaborative approach aimed at enhancing Bangladesh’s ability to mitigate and adapt to the effects^[39] of climate change. ^[40] This partnership, the first of its kind in Asia, took place in the context of the $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Executive Board in January 2023, the programmatic series of Green and Climate Resilient Development (GCRD) Policy Credits by the World Bank^[41] totalling $1 billion, and the ADB’s ongoing funding for climate projects^[42] in Bangladesh.^[43] In addition, Bangladesh has access to resources available from Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF), Adaptation Fund (AF), and other bilateral and multilateral funds^[44] like Global Environment Facility (GEF), Climate Bridge Fund (CBF), etc. However, considering the country’s vulnerability in terms of climate-change adaptation/mitigation, much more amount of funding is required.

In April this year, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh while inaugurating the four-day UN Climate Adaptation Conference National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Expo 2024 urged the international community and wealthy nations to continue providing financial, scientific, and technical assistance to Bangladesh which is facing threats from the adverse impacts of climate change, even after its graduation to the status of developing country.^[45] In fact, during his recent three day visit to Bangladesh this month, Prof Patrick Verkooijen, CEO of Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) stated that “it is an injustice when countries like Bangladesh that are not responsible for the climate crisis have to take loans for adaptation programmes and therefore the developed countries need to provide adaptation funds rather than loans to Bangladesh.” ^[46] It is important to mention that GCA had established a Regional Global Centre on Adaptation (GCA) for South Asia in 2020 in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Bangladesh is also a founding member of Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF), a platform of the 58 most climate-vulnerable countries and members of different United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) bodies.^[47] In addition, Bangladesh is a regular participant in UNFCCC conferences advocating for climate justice and international cooperation to address the harmful impacts of climate change worldwide.

Shortcomings in Bangladesh’s Environmental Governance

No doubt this South Asian nation is pursuing a sustainable development pathway through limiting global warming and has taken initiatives for greenbelt development and afforestation, building sea dykes, cyclone shelters, and coastal plantations as an adaptation strategy against natural disasters.^[48] However, researchers have highlighted drawbacks in Bangladesh’s overall environmental governance. Firstly, environmental agencies do not get much priority in policy initiatives, and people, local communities and civil society groups have an inadequate say/influence on environmental policy formulation of the state; while there also exists a lack of coordination, collaboration, and communication among different institutions in environmental management.^[49] Moreover, there is an absence of regular monitoring and consistency by government agencies regarding ecological management, ^[50] and some government institutions have been rather accused of violating environmental laws every now and then.^[51] Furthermore, though the country has played a pioneering role in its efforts for climate adaptation and resilience, there has been a lack of good governance when it comes to implementing the climate-related projects.^[52] This is probably the most significant loophole in Bangladesh’s environmental governance.

Conclusion

Therefore, considering the depth and extent of the implications faced by the country vis-a-vis climate change, Bangladesh’s journey of building resilience against the climate crisis is far from being over. To conclude, sustained efforts at both national and international levels will be essential to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change in this South Asian country— the repercussions of which have a wider regional dimension. Moreover, the Bangladeshi government should also take action to strengthen environmental governance in the country. Finally, it is high time that all the countries including the developed ones need to prioritize the environment and pursue sustainable development as a mechanism/national strategy for a liveable future.

References

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