Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor(13-19 May 2024)

Economic

US Efforts to Reshape Global Supply Chains Gather Pace in Asia

President Joe Biden’s sweeping tariff hikes on a range of Chinese imports are just the latest US moves in a years-long campaign that is rewiring Asian trade routes, figures in the past few days show. Taiwan’s booming exports to the US are just one example of the way great-power tensions have already reshaped supply chains — and how China is getting left out of some of them. The island’s sales to US markets climbed more than 80% in April from a year earlier, hitting a record high, according to data released May 09. In the first four months of 2024, shipments to the US overtook those sent to China, which continued to shrink. Even when Hong Kong is included, China’s share of the island’s trade is dropping. The Biden administration raised tariffs May 14 on a range of Chinese products, from computer chips to electric vehicles as part of US efforts to curtail what it describes as Chinese “cheating”. The changes are projected to affect around $18 billion in current annual imports, the White House said. It’s part of a broader trade overhaul for key American allies in Asia, including major economies like South Korea and Japan. Both are seeing a bigger share of exports heading to the US at the expense of China. Click here to read... [2]

US slaps steep tariffs on China

The US rolled out steep tariffs on Chinese products on May 14, quadrupling duties on electric vehicles (EVs) to over 100% and imposing new levies on computer chips, solar cells and lithium-ion batteries. The White House says the new measures are intended to “protect American workers and businesses.” The tariffs will affect $18 billion of Chinese imported goods, including steel and aluminium, semiconductors, batteries, critical minerals, solar cells and cranes. Biden administration officials claim the measures have come in response to years of “unfair trade practices” by China, including forced technology transfers, intellectual property violations, and cyber hacking of American businesses. “China’s using the same playbook it has before to power its own growth at the expense of others by continuing to invest, despite excess Chinese capacity and flooding global markets with exports that are underpriced due to unfair practices,” White House National Economic Adviser Lael Brainard told reporters. The revised tariffs are justified, according to US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, who has accused China of stealing US intellectual property and claimed that in some cases Beijing had become “more aggressive” with cyber intrusions targeting American technology. She said prior ‘Section 301’ tariffs had been effective in reducing US imports of Chinese goods, while increasing imports from other countries. According to the US Census Bureau, the country imported $427 billion in goods from China in 2023 and exported $148 billion. Click here to read... [3]

China launches anti-dumping probe targeting EU, U.S., Japan, Taiwan

China's commerce ministry launched an anti-dumping probe on May 19 into POM copolymers, a type of engineering chemicals, imported from the EU, U.S., Japan and Taiwan. The chemicals can partially replace metals such as copper and zinc, and have various applications, including in auto parts, electronics and medical equipment, the ministry said in a statement. The investigation should be completed in a year but could be extended for six months, the ministry said. Click here to read... [4]

Germany and Sweden Warn Against Following US Path on Chinese EVs

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said the European Union must consider the benefits of trading with China as it mulls whether to follow the US’s lead by imposing import duties on electric vehicles. “It is fundamentally a bad idea to dismantle global trade,” Kristersson said May 14 when asked about the prospects for EU tariffs on Chinese cars. “You shouldn’t be naive — sourcing can be disrupted for various reasons, and we have good reasons to demand a level playing field, but a wider trade war where we block each other’s products is not the way to go for industrial nations such as Germany and Sweden.” The comments, at a joint news conference with Scholz in Stockholm, come after US President Joe Biden on May 14 moved to almost quadruple tariffs on Chinese EVs, amid increased worries over the threat they may pose. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, has launched its own probe to determine if battery-powered Chinese cars receive subsidies that could warrant additional EU tariffs. The German chancellor said that while he had yet to see the results of the commission’s investigation, about half of the electric vehicles imported from China to the bloc are produced by western brands. Click here to read... [5]

UN Cuts Back on Hiring and Air Conditioning Over Tight Budget

Shortly after Israel’s United Nations envoy began speaking to the Security Council last month about a membership bid for Palestinians, the world body’s webcast of the historic session went dark. The meeting, which culminated in a US veto, was running long and austerity measures imposed by UN officials prohibited overtime for camera operators and translators. That’s not all. Entry gates at the UN headquarters in Manhattan now close earlier, air conditioning has been throttled back even as summer temperatures start to rise, and the world body has imposed a hiring freeze. The UN has long struggled financially. Top contributors including the US are often late in making their payments, UN officials say, even as an ever-growing roster of crises worldwide increase demand for the organization’s services. Those struggles were exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic and by the Trump administration’s decision to cut funding to humanitarian and development efforts. The organization’s financial woes have turned “into a full-blown liquidity crisis,” Secretary-General Antonio Guterres wrote in a letter to member states in January. The UN is currently owed more than $1.7 billion, as more than a third of states haven’t completed paying their dues for this year and others haven’t even sent their 2023 contributions. Click here to read... [6]

Ukraine has lost 90% of energy capacity – ex-minister

About 90% of Ukraine’s power generation capacity has been taken out by Russian missile attacks, according to former minister of infrastructure Aleksey Kucherenko. The situation is not expected to improve dramatically, as the damaged infrastructure cannot be restored quickly, the member of parliament warned during an interview with the YouTube channel Vishka. “We have lost around eight thousand megawatts of electricity, that’s a lot, out of eight thousand, 800 are currently working,” he said, citing power engineers, and warning of extensive power outages through the summer and winter. Moscow began targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the autumn of 2022, after Russia’s Crimean Bridge was bombed that October. In recent months Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukrainian military and energy facilities. In April, the Russian Defense Ministry said the bombardment was in response to Kiev’s attempts to target Russian oil infrastructure. Since January, Ukraine has launched multiple long-range attacks on energy facilities deep inside Russia, including oil depots and refineries, using kamikaze drones. In April, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia’s strikes on energy facilities “directly affect the defense industry of Ukraine,” calling them part of “demilitarization” efforts. Moscow reiterated the attacks are only aimed at Ukrainian military targets and facilities that support their operations, and never at the civilian population. Click here to read... [7]

China targets lower logistics costs to boost economy and competitiveness

China is seeking to cut logistics costs to boost domestic consumption and offshore competitiveness as it confronts a series of economic headwinds. On May 11, Premier Li Qiang told a meeting of the State Council, China’s cabinet, that the move would help increase the efficiency of the economy. “There need to be more efforts to optimise freight transport, promote the digital, smart and green development of the logistics sector, and substantially lower logistics costs,” Li said, according to state broadcaster CCTV. Beijing is seeking to boost trade-led growth to hedge against domestic challenges, including the persistent property slump and sluggish consumer spending. The country has already made some progress this year. Customs data shows that in April exports rose by 1.5 per cent compared with a year earlier to reach US$292.5 billion, turning around a 7.5 per cent drop in March. Last year shipments dropped by 4.6 per cent due to weak external demand, following seven years of export growth. Exports have been helped by a 2.1 per cent fall in the yuan against the US dollar since the start of this year, although Beijing rejects suggestions it artificially lowered its currency to make its products cheaper and has vowed to stabilise the yuan. Click here to read... [8]

China’s rush to prop up housing sector aims to boost confidence ahead of third plenum: analysts

China’s “unprecedented” flurry of moves to stabilise its property sector shows the leadership is determined to restore confidence in the economy ahead of a key policy-setting meeting, where “new productive forces” are likely to be in focus, analysts said. Beijing announced coordinated steps on May 17 to address the property sector downturn, with the central bank handing out billions of yuan in extra funding and easing mortgage rules, and local governments encouraged to buy some unsold homes. The raft of support measures, described as “the boldest” or even “unprecedented” in a decade by many observers, followed inspection tours around the nation by several members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party. The traditional field trips came in the lead-up to the party’s third plenary session in July, where its top policymaking body – the Central Committee – will set out the country’s general economic strategy for the next five to 10 years. “The new measures certainly show that the authorities want to put a floor under the property slump, at least for the time being,” said George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre. Vice-premier He Lifeng, who inspected the troubled property sector of Zhengzhou in central Henan province, reiterated how the health of the property market was linked to social wellness and economic development. Click here to read... [9]

China begins work on new C939 widebody jet, going bigger and bolder after C919’s success

Having established its bona fides as a producer of commercial aircraft with the launch of the narrowbody C919, China has already begun work on the C939, a new widebody plane and the third in its series of home-grown airliners. The move sets down another marker for the country as it strives to carve out a piece of the lucrative and highly technological industry, currently dominated by Western conglomerates Boeing and Airbus. Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) – the state-owned manufacturer of the C919, which has already entered service on several domestic routes – has sketched out preliminary designs for the new craft, though it would be many years before these early concepts materialise into a testable prototype, a source familiar with the matter said. Meanwhile, the C929 – Comac’s other in-development widebody plane designed to travel international routes of up to 12,000km (7,500 miles – is speculated to be on par with some aspects of mainstream competitors like Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner, a second source said, adding progress is “in full swing”. The C929 was originally announced as part of a joint venture with Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), but the latter company’s involvement has been in doubt since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions levied against Moscow by the West. Click here to read... [10]

Russia and China Expect to Sign a Deal for Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline Soon

Russia and China expect to finalize soon the preliminary work on the natural gas link Power of Siberia 2 and sign an agreement on the pipeline’s construction, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in China this week. “We plan to finalize the review of the project and sign soon the deal to build the pipeline with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters of gas via Mongolia,” Novak told Russian television, as carried by news agency Interfax. Russia and China also plan “other new projects,” Novak, Russia’s top energy negotiator with OPEC, said while on a visit to China accompanying Vladimir Putin. The Russian president met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week as the two countries are forging closer ties to counter the U.S. and the West. The official visit to China was Putin’s first foreign trip since he was sworn in for a fifth presidential term earlier this month. Russia bets on selling increased volumes of energy products to China after losing Europe as a key oil export market following Putin’s war in Ukraine. The Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline has been a topic of discussions between Russia and China for years, but no progress has been made. Currently, Russia supplies pipeline gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, one of the biggest projects recently completed by Gazprom and the first conduit for Russian gas to China. Click here to read... [11]

Dow surpasses 40,000, world stocks hit record amid rate cut hopes

The Dow Jones industrial average crossed the 40,000 level on May 16 for the first time and a world stock index scored a third straight record intraday high on hopes of U.S. interest rate cuts and strong earnings before stocks turned mostly flat in afternoon trading. Data on May 15 showed cooling consumer price inflation, although that was offset on May 16 by news that U.S. jobless claims fell in the latest week and by figures showing U.S. import prices increased 0.9% last month. That data boosted U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. The Dow rose as high as 40,051.05 while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs in early New York trading before slowly losing steam and finishing slightly lower on the session. Shares of Walmart jumped 7% for its biggest one-day percentage gain since March 2020 after the retail giant raised its fiscal 2025 sales and profit forecast. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38.62 points, or 0.10%, to 39,869.38, the S&P 500 lost 11.03 points, or 0.21%, at 5,297.12 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 44.07 points, or 0.26%, to 16,698.32. "What (the Dow hitting 40,000) means is that regardless of the concerns about inflation and consumer sentiment, the companies in the Dow, which represent a cross section of our economy, continue to march higher on better earnings and stronger guidance," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. Click here to read... [12]

Japan's foreign aid to focus more on tech, less on infrastructure

The Japanese government will soon shift the focus of foreign aid toward advanced technology, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, and away from infrastructure development. An expert panel will submit a recommendation to revise the official development assistance (ODA) program to Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa on May 16. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will incorporate the provisions in its fiscal 2025 budget request due out this summer. Japan should help emerging and developing economies address sustainability issues through the use of science and technology, the expert panel will say. This pivot aims to differentiate Japan from China, which leans heavily on massive infrastructure products to assist poor countries. First, the Japanese government would lead the effort to streamline access to the collaborative research program administered by the Japan Science and Technology Agency. There have been calls to simplify the process, which entails numerous preliminary screening steps to clear before researchers from Japan and developing countries can engage in joint research. Through science and technology ODA, work will be done in infectious diseases, environmental issues, disaster prevention, space development, peacebuilding and more. In disaster response, Japanese quantum technology would be deployed to simulate earthquakes to help mitigate their damage. Greying societies have also started to affect Southeast Asian economies. Click here to read... [13]

Bangladesh banks in liquidity crisis, hit by forced merger plan

Businessman Abul Kalam Azad has deposited his money at Basic Bank in Dhaka for years, trusting that the state-owned lender was a secure place to park his savings. But the South Asian nation's financial sector is reeling from a liquidity crisis amid accusations of bank executives' dubious dealings and billions of dollars in bad loans. Bangladesh's central bank in March ordered the merger of 10 of the country's 61 private and state-owned lenders in a bid to fix their battered balance sheets and keep them afloat, leading to a crisis of confidence among savers. "I don't know what could happen with the bank under private-sector management," said 45-year-old Azad, worried about plans to force his bank to merge with a private lender. "So, I'm taking my money out." Depositors across Bangladesh are yanking savings out of the country's crisis-hit banks, despite official assurances that the deposits of any merged lenders will be "completely safe and secured." Azad and other nervous Basic Bank clients pulled more than $210 million out of their accounts in a matter of days when branches reopened after a brief closure during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan in April, according to the lender. "We have [also] received scores of withdrawal requests from our institutional depositors," Basic Bank Deputy Managing Director Abu Md Mofazzal told Nikkei Asia. Click here to read... [14]

Line-Naver spat presents dilemma for Yoon's Japan policy push

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's policy of rapprochement with Japan is coming under increasing pressure stemming from a dispute involving prominent technology companies from both countries. Liberal opposition politicians have lambasted the conservative Yoon for what they say is a weak response to perceived pressure from Tokyo on Naver, the owner of a stake in LY Corp., which runs the web portal Yahoo Japan and the popular messaging app Line. Naver, meanwhile, operates South Korea's most-used search engine. A Holdings, a 50-50 joint venture between Naver and Japanese telecom giant SoftBank Corp., owns 64.4% of LY's shares. Regulatory authorities in Japan recently issued administrative guidance instructing LY to reduce dependence on Naver, citing leaks of user information last year resulting from problems at a company that Line, LY's former name, hired to perform security maintenance as well as at a cloud vendor affiliated with the South Korean company. "It is necessary to make appropriate considerations for reviewing the management of your company, including your parent company, in order to make the management and supervision of outsourced parties’ function properly," Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said. Still, some observers in South Korea interpreted the move as undue political pressure from Tokyo intended to sideline a local champion. Click here to read... [15]

Aramco’s Q1 2024 Results: Saudi Arabia is at a Dangerous Tipping Point

The only real power that Saudi Arabia has in the world comes from its oil sector. The greater its production appears to be, the more it is taken seriously by countries that otherwise would have nothing to do with it. Given this, it has been clear for many years that a closer look at the Kingdom’s crude oil production capabilities and its reserves figures plainly show that they are much lower than Saudi Arabia has said they are. The release last week of Saudi Aramco’s Q1 2024 results underlines the point again, with an obvious dichotomy between a notable increase in capital expenditure over the quarter on the one hand, and the January directive from the Energy Ministry to the company to cancel a planned 1 million barrels per day (bpd) expansion in oil production capacity. So, the question is: if the money is there for other capital expenditure, why is it not there for an expansion in production capacity? Is it because Saudi Arabia knows it cannot increase its crude oil production capacity any further? Or is it because the Kingdom simply cannot afford to increase production capacity and spending on other things? In fact, it is both these things, as delineated below. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Putin focuses on trade and cultural exchanges in Harbin, China, after reaffirming ties with Xi

Russian President Vladimir Putin focused on trade and cultural exchanges May 17 during his state visit to China that started with bonhomie in Beijing and a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that deepened their “ no limits ” partnership as both countries face rising tensions with the West. Putin praised China at a China-Russia Expo in the northeastern city of Harbin, hailing the growth in bilateral trade. He will also meet with students at Harbin Institute of Technology later May 17. Harbin, capital of China’s Heilongjiang province, was once home to many Russian expatriates and retains some of those historical ties in its architecture, such as the central Saint Sophia Cathedral, a former Russian Orthodox church. Though Putin’s visit is more symbolic and is short on concrete proposals, the two countries nonetheless are sending a clear message. “At this moment, they’re reminding the West that they can be defiant when they want to,” said Joseph Torigian, a research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institute. At the exhibition in Harbin, Putin emphasized the importance of Russia-China cooperation in jointly developing new technologies. “Relying on traditions of friendship and cooperation, we can look into the future with confidence,” he said. “The Russian-Chinese partnership helps our countries’ economic growth, ensures energy security, helps develop production and create new jobs.” Click here to read... [17]

Putin says Russia wants buffer zone in Ukraine's Kharkiv but has no plans to capture the city

Russian President Vladimir Putin said May 17 that Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region aims to create a buffer zone but has no plans to capture the city. Putin’s comments on a trip to China were his first on the offensive launched on May 10, which opened a new front in the war and displaced thousands of Ukrainians within few days. It came hours after a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russian-occupied Crimea early May 17 caused power cutoffs in the city of Sevastopol while damaging aircraft and fuel storage at an airbase. In southern Russia, Russian authorities said the attack also set a refinery ablaze. Speaking to reporters May 17 on a visit to Harbin, China, Putin said that Moscow launched attacks in the Kharkiv region in response to the Ukrainian shelling of Russia’s Belgorod region. “I have said publicly that if it continues, we will be forced to create a security zone, a sanitary zone,” he said. Putin said that Russian troops were “advancing daily according to plan" and said that there were no plans to capture Kharkiv, for now. Ukrainian troops were fighting May 17 to halt Russian advances in Kharkiv region that began late last week. Click here to read... [18]

Rift in Israel war cabinet as defence chief opposes ‘military rule’ in Gaza

Divisions within Israel’s war cabinet over the lack of post-war plans for the Gaza Strip have erupted in a rare public row, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant saying the country should not be involved in ruling the besieged and bombarded territory once the fighting ends. On May 15, Gallant said he was opposed to the Israeli military control or taking responsibility for the governance of Gaza. “I must reiterate … I will not agree to the establishment of Israeli military rule in Gaza. Israel must not establish civilian rule in Gaza,” he told a news conference. Since the current conflict started in October, Gallant said he had been “raising this issue consistently in the cabinet, and have received no response,” rebuking Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and calling on him to “make a decision”. Netanyahu, who has indicated Israel intends to maintain open-ended control over security affairs in the enclave, responded to Gallant’s call saying he was not “prepared to exchange Hamastan for Fatahstan”. He has previously said that talking about the “day after” war was a moot point because the conflict would not end until the complete defeat of Hamas, the group that has been running Gaza since 2007. Benny Gantz, another war cabinet member, came out in support of Gallant, saying he spoke the truth and that it was the leadership’s responsibility to do the right thing for the country at all costs. Click here to read... [19]

Israel-Gaza war: Palestinians mark 76 years since the Nakba as larger catastrophe unfolds

Palestinians on May 15 will mark the 76th year of their mass expulsion from what is now Israel, an event that is at the core of their national struggle. But in many ways, that experience pales in comparison to the calamity now unfolding in Gaza. Palestinians refer to it as the Nakba, Arabic for catastrophe. Some 700,000 Palestinians – a majority of the pre-war population – fled or were driven from their homes before and during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war that followed Israel’s establishment. After the war, Israel refused to allow them to return because it would have resulted in a Palestinian majority within its borders. Instead, they became a seemingly permanent refugee community that now numbers some 6 million, with most living in slum-like urban refugee camps in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and the Israeli-occupied West Bank. In Gaza, the refugees and their descendants make up around three-quarters of the population. Israel’s rejection of what Palestinians say is their right of return has been a core grievance in the conflict and was one of the thorniest issues in peace talks that last collapsed 15 years ago. The refugee camps have always been the main bastions of Palestinian militancy. Now, many Palestinians fear a repeat of their painful history on an even more cataclysmic scale. Click here to read... [20]

Biden administration plans to send $1bn in military aid to Israel: Reports

The Biden administration has told Congress that it plans to send a $1bn package of military aid to Israel, according to media reports, despite the United States’s opposition to a full-scale invasion of Rafah in southern Gaza and concerns about rising civilian deaths. The US Department of State on May 14 moved the package into the congressional review process, Reuters news agency reported, citing two unnamed US officials. The package, which is yet to be approved, includes about $700m for tank ammunition, $500m in tactical vehicles and $60m in mortar rounds, congressional aides told The Associated Press news agency. The approval request for the transfer of lethal weapons comes a week after President Joe Biden paused a single shipment of bombs because of concerns over Israel’s offensive in Rafah, in the southernmost tip of Gaza, from where the United Nations says close to half a million displaced people have fled. Reporting from Washington, DC, Al Jazeera’s Shihab Rattansi said the new package “is being presented as the long-term US commitment to supplying Israel with weaponry”. “We are being told that it is something that has been under consideration since mid-spring. It could take many months, up to three years to supply all of these weapons to Israel,” he said. Click here to read... [21]

Why Egypt backed South Africa’s genocide case against Israel in the ICJ

As Israel devastates Gaza, Egypt has largely had to watch on with rising concern about the developments on its border. Its border with the Palestinian enclave has been a route for aid going in and people coming out, but Israel has had the ultimate say over access to the border, even if it did not have a physical presence there until last week. And it was that move – to send Israeli troops to the Rafah border crossing – that experts believe has cemented Egypt’s belief that Israel is not taking its security and political concerns seriously and is instead “disrespecting” them. Egypt has now taken its own steps – on May 12, the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Egypt had joined South Africa’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) genocide case against Israel. “The significance of this move is that it is sending a signal that Egypt is not happy with what’s happening in Gaza and how Israel is behaving,” said Nancy Okail, an expert on Egypt and the president and CEO of the Center for International Policy, even as she downplayed the effect of Egypt’s decision on the ICJ’s final verdict, labelling it a “symbolic gesture”. Egypt has grown increasingly alarmed with Israel’s military operations in Rafah, where about 1.5 million Palestinians from all over Gaza had sought refuge. Click here to read... [22]

Japan, South Korea and China seek to ease friction at trilateral summit

Japan, China and South Korea are preparing for their trilateral summit this month, the first since 2019, hoping that renewed dialogue will promote stability and prevent excessive economic and security friction among the East Asian nations. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and South Korean counterpart Cho Tae-yul discussed the event May 13 in Beijing, agreeing to "continue their cooperation for the success" of the talks, according to Seoul's readout. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Chinese Premier Li Qiang and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol are slated to attend the summit in Seoul on May 26-27. South Korea has pushed for a return to the regular rotating annual meetings that began in 2008 but were halted amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The three countries also look to arrange bilateral talks among the leaders. A meeting between Kishida and the Chinese premier would be the first since Li took office in March 2023. The return of the trilateral framework after a hiatus of over four years comes amid shifts in each country's agenda as well as the international situation. Relations between Tokyo and Seoul, previously frayed by issues such as wartime labour cases involving Japanese companies, have improved under Kishida and Yoon. That has made it easier for the two countries to unite in urging Beijing to curb its military pressure against other countries in the region. Click here to read... [23]

Thailand, Japan signal policy shifts on engaging Myanmar's resistance

Moves by Thailand and Japan to engage with Myanmar's resistance indicate a shift in policies that previously favoured Naypyitaw's military regime and excluded key resistance organizations such as the parallel National Unity Government. These include a growing crackdown on Thai involvement in supplying and supporting scam centres run by Chinese and local criminal groups inside Myanmar's Karen state, near the Thai-Myanmar border. Separately, Thai government officials have stepped up engagement with Myanmar's resistance groups, including the NUG and key ethnic resistance groups, including the Karen National Union and various groups to the north in Karenni state. Thailand's National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission last week ordered Thai internet service providers and telecommunications companies to cut off internet services and telephone lines to Shwe Kokko, the oldest and largest of the notorious scam centers run by Chinese crime syndicates in Karen state. The order was "very significant" and came after an active lobbying campaign by opposition politicians and an intense debate between key ministries, said one Thai official connected with the government's multi-agency task force on Myanmar. "There were earlier attempts to warn ISPs to curb internet services, and it happened for a while, but it came right back. This was a decision that came from the top," the official told Nikkei Asia. Click here to read... [24]

Pacific countries call for calm as New Caledonia riots continue

Caledonia's Pacific neighbours called for de-escalation and a return to dialogue between France and the island territory's political parties, after a third night of violent riots that have killed four people and led to hundreds of arrests. France declared a state of emergency in New Caledonia that came into force at 5 a.m., giving authorities additional powers to ban gatherings and forbid people from moving around the island. Rioting broke out over a new bill, adopted by lawmakers in Paris on May 14, that will let French residents who have lived in New Caledonia for 10 years vote in provincial elections -- a move some local leaders fear will dilute the indigenous Kanak vote. The protests were organised by Field Action Co-ordination Cell (CCAT), which was condemned on May 16 by France's High Commissioner Louis Le Franc, who differentiated the organisation from the major pro-independence political party, FLNKS, which has called for calm. Reuters was unable to reach representatives of CCAT for comment. Armed forces were protecting New Caledonia's two airports and port, Le Franc said, adding that at least four alleged instigators were under house arrest. Electoral reform is the latest flashpoint in a decades long tussle over France's role in the mineral-rich island, which lies in the southwest Pacific, some 1,500 kilometres east of Australia. Click here to read... [25]

Taiwan inauguration: the big difference between William Lai and Tsai Ing-wen on day 1

Taiwan’s new president, William Lai Ching-te, made a major pivot from his predecessor in his inauguration speech on May 20 by not referring to the 1992 consensus. When Lai’s predecessor Tsai Ing-wen first took office in 2016, she pledged “respect” to the “historical fact” of a tacit understanding made between her opposition party with the mainland, although she did not formally recognise it – and later rejected it. The consensus is a tacit agreement between the two sides that there is one China, but each side of the Taiwan Strait can have their own interpretation of what constitutes “China”. Beijing views it as endorsing its “one-China principle”. It is also Beijing’s precondition for cross-strait dialogue and Taiwan’s involvement in international organisations. “In 1992, the two institutions representing each side across the strait, through communication and negotiations, arrived at various joint acknowledgements and understandings,” Tsai said in her inauguration speech. “It was done in a spirit of mutual understanding and a political attitude of seeking common ground while setting aside differences. I respect this historical fact.” She also hailed the “dialogue and communication” between the two sides, which she said both should “value and preserve”. Despite Tsai’s public acknowledgement of the 1992 consensus, Beijing responded hours later that she had yet to complete the “answer sheet”, meaning she did not meet Beijing’s bar on cross-strait relations. Click here to read... [26]

China building world’s first ‘dedicated’ drone carrier, satellite images suggest: report

China may have built the world’s first “dedicated” drone carrier, military website Naval News reported, citing satellite imagery and an expert. The new aircraft carrier, the building of which has not been publicised by Beijing, could underline China’s aims to advance the military use of drones and their deployment in battle. Video from the first sea trial earlier this month of the Chinese navy’s third and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, also showed another giant warship under construction – the Type 076 amphibious assault ship believed to serve as both a helicopter and drone carrier. Naval News reported on May 15 that satellite imagery from the Jiangsu Dayang shipyard on the Yangtze, far upriver from the major yards of Shanghai, suggested that China had secretly built a new aircraft carrier to specifically host fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). It said the features of the mystery ship, “launched in December 2022 but not reported until now”, were different from regular US or Chinese aircraft carriers. This includes a smaller size – around one-third the length and half the width of a US or Chinese supercarrier – and an “anachronistic” straight deck arrangement that would not allow aircraft to take off and land at the same time. It would be possible to operate fixed-wing aircraft from the vessel, which is wide enough to host aircraft or drones with a wingspan of around 20 metres (about 66 feet), the report said. Click here to read... [27]

Imran Khan Wins Bail from Pakistan Court in Misuse of Power Case

A Pakistani court granted bail to former Prime Minister Imran Khan in a case where he is charged of legalizing billions of rupees of a business tycoon when he was in power in 2019. The jailed leader won’t be set free as he is serving sentence in other cases. A two-member panel of Islamabad High Court judges accepted Khan’s appeal for bail, former leader’s lawyer Shoaib Shaheen, said on phone. The National Accountability Bureau alleged Khan and his wife obtained land from a real estate developer, Malik Riaz, in return for legalizing equivalent to $240 million funds that were retrieved from the UK’s National Crime Agency The decision gives some relief to Khan who has seen legal and political challenges after his relations turned sour with the nation’s powerful military that led to his removal from power in a parliamentary vote in 2022. He is in jail since August after he was found guilty in four different cases from corruption to misuse of power and violating the Islamic wedding rules. Khan denies all the charges. Khan’s conviction in two of these cases has been suspended by courts. Though Khan was not eligible to participate in national elections held in Feb., his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party-backed candidates unexpectedly won the most parliamentary seats after a vote marred by allegations of rigging. Click here to read... [28]

North Korea Fires Missiles After Criticizing Weapons Charge

North Korea fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles toward waters off its east coast, hours after the outspoken sister of leader Kim Jong Un blasted as “fiction” accusations that her nation was exporting weapons to Russia. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement the missiles were fired from the Wonsan area at around 3:10 p.m., and the military has “strengthened surveillance and vigilance in preparation for additional launches.” The test is the first in about a month and came hours after Kim Yo Jong, a prominent figure for leading pressure campaigns against the US and South Korea, was quoted by North Korea’s official media as taking aim at the US over its accusations of arms transfers. “The hostile forces are misleading the public opinion with a false rumour that the weapon systems produced by the DPRK are ‘for export to Russia,’” state media quoted her as saying. She was referring to North Korea by its formal name. “We have no intention to export our military technical capabilities to any country or open them to the public,” she said. North Korea typically does not comment on launches until the following day. Before she spoke, the US announced new sanctions on the arms trade that Washington says is helping to power the Kremlin’s assault on Ukraine. Click here to read... [29]

Slovak PM Fico shot

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has been shot and wounded on May 15 in the town of Handlova. Multiple shots were fired at the politician as he greeted the public after a government meeting. Local media describe his condition as “serious” and “life threatening.” A post on Fico's Facebook page has warned that the “next few hours will be critical.” The prime minister has been transported to a hospital in Banska Bystrica, a small city in the centre of the country, because it would have taken too long to reach Bratislava, the statement added. An official from Fico’s Smer party has told the media that the prime minister was shot in the abdomen and is now undergoing surgery. The shooting took place as Fico shook hands with members of the public outside a government building. The suspected gunman was detained at the scene, according to state news agency TASR. The suspected gunman – believed to be a Slovakian of pension age, according to reports – was detained at the scene, the state news agency TASR has reported. Video footage purportedly shows officers pinning the attacker to the ground after the incident. President Zuzana Caputova condemned the “brutal and reckless” attack on Fico and wished the PM “a lot of strength at this critical moment.” Click here to read... [30]

After Raisi’s Death, Iran Wrestles with Two Succession Challenges

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death has dealt an unsettling blow to the country’s politics and raises questions regarding the succession of not just the presidency, but also the most powerful position in the country—that of supreme leader. Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash over the weekend along with Iran’s foreign minister, was widely seen as a potential successor to the current top figure, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 and has a history of illness. There is no publicly anointed heir-apparent. Under Iran’s constitution, new national elections are to be held within 50 days to elect a new president. The vote would come as Iran’s leaders are embroiled in a regional conflict with Israel and facing unrest at home as economic woes intensify discontent with clerical rule. Khamenei on May 19 sought to play down the possibility of upheaval. “The nation doesn’t need to be worried or anxious, as the administration of the country will not be disrupted,” he wrote on X. Raisi’s death is unlikely to alter Iran’s political course, whether at home or abroad, or to bring a meaningful change in its relations with the U.S. Khamenei, who is Iran’s highest political and religious authority, is deeply sceptical of the West, and cautioned previous presidents against engaging in any form of diplomatic negotiation. Raisi never strayed from that line. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Premiums for long-term care insurance rise 3.5% for elderly in Japan

Elderly people are paying higher premiums for the nation's long-term care insurance system as payments for nursing care services have risen due to the greying society. People 65 or older will pay 6,225 yen ($40) in monthly standard premiums on the national average for three years from fiscal 2024, up 3.5 percent from the 6,014 yen for the previous three years, the health ministry said May 14. The figure, based on a survey of 1,573 municipalities, more than doubled from 2,911 yen in fiscal 2000, when the long-term care insurance system started. Municipalities, which serve as insurers, determine premiums for people 65 or older every three years in accordance with a central government policy. Premiums differ among municipalities depending on the amount of required nursing care services and the demographic proportion of the elderly. Standard premiums for fiscal 2024-2026 are the highest in Osaka at 9,249 yen and the lowest in Ogasawara, a village in Tokyo, at 3,374 yen. While 712 municipalities, or 45.3 percent, raised premiums from fiscal 2021-2023, 276 municipalities, or 17.5 percent, lowered them. The remaining 585 kept them unchanged. However, premiums are bound to rise further overall because more nursing care services will be required as the population ages. Click here to read... [32]

South Africa’s Ramaphosa signs health bill weeks before election

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has signed into law a bill that aims to provide universal health coverage. The president on May 15 hailed the law as a major step towards a more just society two weeks before an election that is expected to be fiercely competitive. “The provision of healthcare in this country is fragmented, unsustainable and unacceptable,” he said at the signing ceremony at the Union Buildings, the seat of government in Pretoria. “For those who would like to see (their) privileges continuing, sorry, you are on the wrong boat. The boat we are on is about equality,” he said.The National Health Insurance (NHI) Act takes aim at a two-tier health system, in which a publicly funded sector that serves 84 percent of the population is overburdened and run-down while some people have access to better treatment through private insurance. The legislation will gradually limit the role of private insurance, create a new public fund to provide free access for South African citizens, and set the fees and prices that private doctors and healthcare suppliers may charge for NHI-funded benefits. Critics said the plan will drain already stretched public finances, limit patient choice, undermine the quality of care and drive talented doctors out of the country. Opponents have promised to challenge it in court and described it as a ploy for votes – which the presidency denied – before the election. Click here to read... [33]