Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor(06-12 May 2024)

Economic

China’s Xi visits EU to avert trade war – media

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, and EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on May 06 to resolve economic disagreements between Brussels and Beijing, various media outlets have reported. Xi arrived in France on May 05 for a two-day state visit, embarking on his first trip to Europe in five years. The Chinese leader will next head to Serbia and Hungary. “The world today has entered a new period of turbulence and change,” Xi stated at the start of the trilateral meeting in Paris. “As two important forces in the world, China and Europe should... continuously make new contributions to world peace and development,” the leader added. The Paris meeting mainly focused on trade disputes between Beijing and the EU. According to Macron, Europe and China must resolve structural difficulties, in particular on trade. “The future of our continent will also very clearly depend on our capacity to further develop in a balanced way our relationship with China,” the French president said during the meeting at the Elysee Palace. Macron has been pushing Brussels to get tough with China, accusing it of flooding the market with cheap electric vehicles. The EU launched an investigation last year into Chinese subsidies, while Beijing has threatened to slap tariffs on French-made brandy imports. Click here to read... [2]

China's Confucius Institutes flourish in ASEAN after West's freeze-out

For Em Theara, learning Chinese at one of Cambodia's three Confucius Institutes means a brighter future. "Many Chinese people have come to Cambodia to set up business. Those who know Chinese will have more opportunities [for jobs] ... and the salaries are not bad," the 24-year-old university student said. Em is one of a growing number of Cambodians enrolling at the institutes, which are partly funded by the government in Beijing. They ostensibly promote the Mandarin language and Chinese culture abroad but have been broadly criticized in the West as channels for Chinese Communist Party propaganda, and many of them have shut down. But in much of Asia, including Southeast Asia, they have found more fertile ground. Within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc, the official website lists 42 at present, up from 33 in 2021. Thailand tops the list at 16. Scores of Confucius Classrooms -- partner programs with schools and education centers -- have also been established across the ASEAN region. Sam Rany, the Cambodian director of the Confucius Institute at the National University of Battambang in Cambodia, said the institutes are instrumental in equipping people with the skills to engage in business and trade with China, thereby participating more effectively in the global economy. Click here to read... [3]

Senior Chinese leaders’ tours round country offer clues to economic policy agenda ahead of key meeting

Several senior Chinese officials have been touring the country this week, offering some clues as to what will be top of the agenda at a key policy meeting that will set out the country’s general economic direction. The four emphasised technological self-reliance, social stability and high-quality development during the trips, the first made by members of the senior leadership after the announcement that the third plenum would be held in July after an unexplained delay. It is a tradition for senior officials to make domestic inspection tours before a plenum, a party gathering that will announce goals to be followed up by government agencies with specific policies. This week, four of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee – Premier Li Qiang, the country’s top lawmaker Zhao Leji, top political adviser Wang Huning and first Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang – were touring the country while President Xi Jinping was in Europe with other senior officials. Li visited Xinjiang between May 07 and May 09, saying the northwestern region should strengthen international exchanges and promote its role as a trade link between inland provinces and other countries, state news agency Xinhua reported. His itinerary included visits to local companies, where he stressed the need to support the development of industries showcasing local strengths such as energy and equipment manufacturing. He also said the region should promote stability. Click here to read... [4]

Chinese companies win more bids to explore for Iraq oil and gas

Chinese companies won five more bids to explore Iraqi oil and gas fields, Iraq’s oil minister said on May 12, as the Middle Eastern country’s hydrocarbon exploration licensing round continued into its second day. Chinese companies have been the only foreign players to win bids so far, taking licenses covering 10 oil and gas fields since May 11, while Iraqi Kurdish company KAR Group took two. The oil and gas licences for 29 projects in total are mainly aimed at ramping up output for domestic use, with more than 20 companies pre-qualifying, including European, Chinese, Arab and Iraqi groups. Iraq wanted this licensing round – the country’s sixth – in particular to increase output of natural gas, that it wants to use to fire power plants that rely heavily on gas imported from Iran. However, no bids were made on at least six fields with gas potential, potentially undermining those efforts. Also, notably no US oil majors have been involved, even after Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani met representatives of US companies on an official visit to the United States last month. Among specific awards, China’s CNOOC Iraq won a bid to develop for oil exploration Iraq’s Block 7, that extends across the country’s central and southern provinces of Diwaniya, Babil, Najaf, Wasit and Muthanna, said oil minister Hayan Abdul Ghani. Click here to read... [5]

In rapidly ageing China, millions can’t afford to retire

After three decades selling homemade buns on the streets of the Chinese city of Xian, 67-year-old Hu Dexi would have liked to slow down. Instead, Hu and his older wife have moved to the edge of Beijing, where they wake at 4 a.m. every day to cook their packed lunch, then commute for more than an hour to a downtown shopping mall, where they each earn 4,000 yuan ($552) monthly, working 13-hour shifts as cleaners. The alternative for them and many of the 100 million rural migrants reaching retirement age in China over the next 10 years is to return to their village and live off a small farm and monthly pensions of 123 yuan ($17). “No one can look after us,” said Hu, still mopping the floor. “I don’t want to be a burden on my two children and our country isn’t giving us a penny.” The generation that flocked to China’s cities at the end of last century, building the infrastructure and manning the factories that made the country the world’s biggest exporter, now risks a sharp late-life drop in living standards. Reuters interviewed more than a dozen people, including rural migrant workers, demographers, economists and a government adviser, who described a social security system unfit for a worsening demographic crisis, which Beijing is patching rather than overhauling as it pursues growth through industrial modernization. Click here to read... [6]

Biden, Trump China tariffs draw on old, losing playbook

As Joe Biden throws down the gauntlet in his bid to defeat Donald Trump, the US president risks repeating one of his predecessor’s biggest blunders. This week, Biden will unveil plans to quadruple taxes on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports and slap huge tariffs on other key industries. The new levies on mainland EVs will reportedly skyrocket to 102.5%. Other priority industries could see tariffs double or triple. It’s Biden’s latest ploy to out-Trump Trump, and ultimately a losing ticket in terms of raising American living standards. It also risks provoking China to retaliate in ways that backfire on US consumers and investors. Biden’s desire to relive 1985 arguably makes sense from a political standpoint ahead of the November 5 election. That is the era during which levies of the kind Biden is mulling – and Trump used from 2017 to 2021 – might have worked. In 2024, though, Team Biden is endeavoring to protect an economic system that no longer exists. Just as Trump did during his time in the White House, back when he imposed taxes of at least 10% on all mainland goods and others on steel and aluminum. With Trump telegraphing 60% tariffs on Chinese goods in a second term, Biden’s administration is clearly trying to avoid appearing easy on Asia’s biggest economy. Click here to read... [7]

US Seeks to Curb Iran’s Fundraising Capacity in Southeast Asia

Washington is concerned about growing efforts by Iran and groups like Hamas to solicit money in Southeast Asia, a senior US Treasury official said on May 07 during a visit intended to rally support for sanctions enforcement in the region. American officials are meeting oil industry executives, regulators and financial institutions in Singapore and Malaysia this week to prop up US efforts to tighten restrictions on Iranian crude exports and to curb Russia’s ability to keep funding its costly war in Ukraine. The official, who spoke to reporters on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations, said the US expressed concern that Russia continues to source unspecified critical components in Southeast Asia, using transfers to mask the ultimate destination. They include components being used on the battlefield. Iran has been the main focus, however, given its historic ties to countries like Malaysia and the tighter restrictions on Tehran introduced by the US in response to an on Israel last month and support for groups like Hamas. A package of measures signed into law last month promises to extend coverage to include foreign ports, vessels and refineries that knowingly process or ship Iranian crude. The new restrictions also expanded so-called secondary sanctions to cover all transactions with sanctioned Iranian banks used to purchase petroleum and oil-derived products. Click here to read... [8]

Biden Energy Secretary Plans First Visit to Saudi Arabia and UAE

US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to make her first diplomatic visit to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates next week, according to people familiar with the matter. Granholm’s trip will focus in part on climate issues and diversifying the region’s energy mix, one of the people said. It comes as oil prices and inflation are key issues for President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign and as members of OPEC+ prepare to decide whether to extend curbs on crude output at a meeting next month. The Biden administration is in the midst of bilateral talks with the Saudis over normalizing relations between the Kingdom and Israel that could pave the way for a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with the U.S. Click here to read... [9]

Multiple plane mishaps revive scrutiny on Boeing

One Boeing-made plane has crashed and three more have suffered technical problems this week, bringing renewed focus on the US aerospace giant’s production woes. A United Airlines 737-800 series passenger jet had to make an emergency landing about 40 minutes after takeoff on May 10. Flight UA166 from Fukuoka, Japan to Guam had reported a “problem with flaps.” In the early hours of May 09, an Air Senegal 737-38J skidded off the runway during takeoff from the Blaise Diagne International Airport (AIBD) in Dakar, Senegal. There were 73 passengers and six crew on board the flight to Bamako, Mali. Eleven were injured in the incident, four of them seriously. On May 08 afternoon, a Corendon Airlines Boeing 737-800 blew out a tire on its front landing gear upon arriving at the Gazipasa-Alanya Airport (GZP) in southern Türkiye. All 190 people on board were safely evacuated but the wheel hubs were heavily damaged, according to the airport authority. Earlier that same day, a Boeing 767 had to make an emergency landing at Istanbul Airport (IST). Flight FX6238, operated by FedEx, arrived from Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG) but had to land “without opening the front landing gear due to a technical issue,” the Istanbul airport operator said in a statement. It took the airport a day to safely move the plane from Runway 16R, according to Istanbul Airport CEO Selahattin Bilgen. Click here to read... [10]

Why the IEA is Wrong About Peak Oil Demand

It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavours. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years. In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline. “Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.” As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. Click here to read... [11]

The Panama Canal is Key to American LNG

Back in March, S&P Global reported that a record 24 cargoes carrying nearly 1.6 million metric tons of U.S. LNG had reached Asia via the Cape of Good Hope in the first three months of 2024, with exporters choosing the much longer route and shunning the Panama and Suez canals due to various challenges. S&P reported that only 14 cargoes had reached Asia through the Panama Canal during the timeframe, a sharp drop from 40 cargoes recorded during the corresponding period in 2022 after low water levels occasioned by severe drought forced longer wait times for LNG carriers. The situation remained dire in April, with LNG transits through the canal's Neopanamax locks amounting to less than 5% of crossings while container ships accounted for more than 60% of the transits. "We use the canal when it is economical to do so, right now it is not. Right now the market in the Far East is not supporting it, and the waiting time, with us not being a priority customer, is just not worth us using it right now," Corey Grindal, Chief Operating Officer at Cheniere Energy, previously told a media briefing. Cheniere Energy is the United States’ largest LNG producer and exporter. Thankfully, the situation is about to change: The Panama Canal is currently in talks with U.S. LNG producers on how to meet increased demand for crossings as water levels recover, Reuters has reported. Click here to read... [12]

U.S. public funds invested in TikTok owner ByteDance: report

U.S. pensions, university endowments, and other institutional investors have more than $9 billion invested in private equity and venture capital funds that may have exposure to TikTok's Chinese parent company ByteDance, a new report finds, amid a government push force the divestiture of the social media app to an American owner or face a ban. Those billions could be thrown in limbo and "tied to the resultant outcome" of a battle between ByteDance and the U.S. government over national security and privacy concerns for the short-video platform's 170 million American users, according to a Future Union report published Wednesday. On May 07, ByteDance filed a lawsuit to block legislation signed by President Joe Biden in April that would ban TikTok from app stores in the U.S. unless ByteDance sells it before Jan. 19, arguing the law infringes on free speech. The report, using publicly available data, found that 39 of the largest U.S. public pensions have invested in funds with exposure to ByteDance between 2012 and 2024. It said the figures in the report were likely underestimates due to the opaque nature of disclosures. The Washington State Investment Board and the New York State Common Retirement Fund, two public pension plans, committed $1.4 billion each to private equity and venture capital firms that have made investments in ByteDance. Click here to read... [13]

Bill to safeguard crucial economic security info clears Diet in Japan

The Upper House approved legislation designed to restrict access to economic security information on May 10 although details about the proposed system remain unclear, generating privacy and other concerns. The legislation will require government officials, company employees and others to undergo background checks to obtain government clearance to handle sensitive information about economic security. In a vote during an Upper House plenary session, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, as well as several opposition parties, supported the bill. The legislation, which already passed the Lower House, will take effect within a year after promulgation. Under the legislation, information about the supply chains of semiconductors and other key materials as well as critical infrastructure that, if leaked, could adversely impact national security will be designated as “important economic security information.” The government’s background checks will cover individuals’ criminal records, drinking habits, debt problems, their family members’ nationalities and other information. A leak of designated information will be punishable by up to five years in prison or a maximum fine of 5 million yen ($32,000). During Diet deliberations, lawmakers pointed out that the scope of information that will be restricted hasn’t been clearly defined. Lawmakers also expressed concerns that people who refuse to undergo background checks or fail the screenings could face disadvantages in personnel moves. Click here to read... [14]

Will Central Bank Digital Currencies Undermine Gold's Value?

With the eventual introduction of central bank digital currency (CBDCs) now seemingly inevitable, there are a lot of directions central banks could take with their digital currency projects that would have dramatic implications for the price of gold. Touted for their “convenience” and “efficiency,” the endgame of digital currencies is not only achieving greater power over the currency but also a means of surveilling and micromanaging the personal finances of each individual. Owe taxes or a parking ticket? It could be automatically deducted. Does the Fed think it needs to cool inflation? Deduct money straight from people’s accounts or impose a daily spending limit. The possibilities for control and profit are endless, and too tempting for control freak bureaucracies and amoral tech companies to ignore. As countries like China implement their own CBDCs, buy more precious metals, and generally buck dependence on the US dollar for trade, Western central banks also feel like they have to compete in order to retain their power. That’s the essence of the other motivation for CBDCs — a currency race between East and West wherein the winner solidifies not only unprecedented control over its own citizenry but a place atop the global power structure for the next century or longer. Click here to read... [15]

Strategic

In Serbia, Xi Jinping skips site of 1999 Nato bombing in ‘calculated move’ to not stoke tension with West

A decision by President Xi Jinping not to visit China’s former embassy in Belgrade on the 25th anniversary of Nato’s bombing of the site has been described as a “calculated move” to avoid stoking tensions with the US-led West. The omission from Xi’s itinerary of the bombing site, which he toured during his first state visit to Serbia in 2016, came as a surprise to many watching the Chinese leader’s trip to Serbia this week. Three Chinese journalists were killed when US-led Nato used missiles to attack the embassy in Belgrade on May 7, 1999, prompting a major crisis between Beijing and Washington, which the latter insisted was a “tragic mistake”. Deng Yuwen, former deputy editor of the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper Study Times, said Xi’s no-show at the bombing site was due, in part, to his tight schedule during the Serbian visit. “But, of course, it also shows Xi does not want to overly irritate the US, or put his Serbian hosts in a difficult position,” he said. “If Xi went ahead with a speech commemorating the anniversary on top of a much-anticipated visit to the site, the European Union would probably put pressure on Serbia.” While Serbia is seen as one of the most China-friendly countries in Europe, especially after Nato’s bombing of the former Yugoslavia between March and June 1999, it is one of the six Western Balkan countries applying for EU membership. Click here to read... [16]

Philippines wants Chinese diplomats expelled amid South China Sea row

The Philippines' national security adviser is calling for the expulsion of Chinese diplomats over an alleged leak of a phone conversation with a Filipino military official as territorial tensions continue to escalate. The developments came a week after China harassed and shot water cannons at a Filipino humanitarian mission headed to Scarborough Shoal, a flashpoint in the region. "The Chinese Embassy's repeated acts of engaging in and dissemination of disinformation, misinformation, and malinformation -- now releasing spurious transcripts or recordings of purported conversations between officials of the host country -- should not be allowed to pass unsanctioned or without serious penalty," Eduardo Ano, Philippines national security adviser, said in a statement on May 10. The alleged leak of the phone conversation surfaced this week, purporting to show a Chinese diplomat and a Filipino admiral discussing a dispute over the South China Sea that saw the Filipino official agreeing to concessions with China. According to a local media report, the conversation was held in January. The Filipino admiral allegedly agreed to "deescalate tension in Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal)" by limiting the number of vessels the Philippines uses for its resupply mission there along with providing prior notice to China. Click here to read... [17]

Taiwan finds concerns grow and options shrink as mainland China increases patrols around Taipei-controlled Quemoy

The increased presence of mainland Chinese coastguard ships patrolling the waters around Taiwan-controlled Quemoy has left Taipei with a dilemma regarding the most appropriate steps to assert its claim. Under Taiwan’s rules of engagement and “first strike” policy, relevant authorities are authorised to target and, in serious cases, open fire on vessels persistently violating warnings by remaining within the waters of Quemoy, a Taiwanese defence outpost also known as Kinmen. However, analysts caution that the island’s authorities have limited options in enforcing these rules, as tougher actions could escalate into unintended cross-strait conflict, a scenario even the United States seeks to avoid. Since late February, the mainland coastguard has deployed several dozen ships in at least nine missions to patrol the waters surrounding Quemoy and Matsu, another of Taiwan’s defence outposts. These patrols, which were previously rare, were prompted by an incident on February 14 in which two mainland Chinese fishermen died during a pursuit by the Taiwanese coastguard after their boat entered the prohibited waters of the Quemoy archipelago. Beijing and Taipei exchanged accusations over who was responsible for the fishermen’s deaths. In the past week alone, the Fujian branch of the mainland coastguard has conducted five missions in waters near Quemoy as part of its “regular law enforcement patrols”. Click here to read... [18]

Chinese scholars suggest official line between entrepreneurs, capitalists to jolt private-sector spirit

As business confidence reaches new lows and a law to support China’s private firms works its way through the system, scholars have called on the government and Communist Party to formally differentiate “entrepreneurs” from “capitalists” to provide theoretical backing for a resurgence of the non-state sector. The proposed change comes in response to a perceived ideological bias against millions of business owners – particularly billionaires, the wealthiest individuals in the country – with some figures going so far as to call for the elimination of private ownership outright. Concerns were amplified when Beijing took action to curb what it termed the “disorderly expansion of capital” as part of its campaign for “common prosperity”, a reorientation of the economy towards a more equitable distribution of wealth. The term “capitalist” holds derogatory connotations in China, an officially socialist country whose constitution upholds public ownership as the “mainstay” of the economic hierarchy. While private property rights were enshrined in a 2004 amendment to the country’s founding document, the non-state sector has remained relegated to a supporting role. In a recently published book, Views on China’s Private Economy, economists Teng Tai and Zhang Haibing argued that private business owners are not “capitalists” as originally theorised in the works of Karl Marx. Instead, they said, entrepreneurs are “enterprise managers, innovators, investors, the final risk bearers of enterprises and socialist builders”. Click here to read... [19]

Russia takes more settlements in Kharkov Region – MOD

Moscow’s forces have moved deeper across the Ukrainian defense lines in Kharkov Region and have made new territorial gains in the area, the Russian Defense Ministry has said. The villages of Gatische, Krasnoe, Morokhovets and Oleynikovo have been liberated from Kiev’s forces, the ministry said on May 12, in its daily bulletin. Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian military has lost around 1,500 troops along the front line, the ministry also said. On May 10, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that Russia had launched a large-scale offensive in the region, claiming that his country’s forces had “calculated everything” in advance and were prepared to repel the attack. Zelensky’s statement followed the announcement by Moscow of the capture of several villages in Kharkov. The fighting continued near the settlements of Degtyarnoye, Volchansk and Kazachya Lopan, with the Ukrainian military losing up to 100 troops, two tanks and two Kozak armored vehicles in this area, the statement read. It also reported that a French-supplied Caesar and two Czech-made Vampire multiple rocket launchers were among items of Ukrainian equipment destroyed by Russian counter-battery fire in this instance. It said that Ukrainian forces had suffered the most casualties in clashes with Russian forces over the strategic town of Chasov Yar and nearby villages in Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic. Click here to read... [20]

Germany to hand majority of army command over to NATO – Pistorius

The majority of the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) will be under NATO command by 2025, with around 35,000 soldiers placed on the “highest levels of readiness,” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced during a keynote speech at Washington’s Johns Hopkins University on May 09. The announcement comes as Germany struggles to resolve major personnel and equipment shortages in its army, with many replacement items purchased for the Bundeswehr being sent to aid Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. A parliamentary report in March revealed that the army is also “aging and shrinking,” with 20,000 unfilled positions and a “very high” dropout rate. “The security of our allies is our security. Therefore, by next year, the majority of the Bundeswehr will be placed under NATO command,” Pistorius said in his May 09 speech, adding that “approximately 35,000 of them will be at the two highest levels of readiness.” The minister said Berlin’s focus remains on “protecting our allies on NATO’s eastern flank,” and pointed to Germany’s recent moves to increase its military presence in the region. Last month, Germany sent an advance team of soldiers to Lithuania as part of a plan to establish a full-strength armor brigade of 4,800 soldiers, which are to be permanently stationed in the Baltic nation bordering Russia by 2027. At the time, Moscow said the move would require “special measures” be taken in response. Click here to read... [21]

Japan enacts laws to set up joint command for Self-Defense Forces

Japan's parliament on May 10 enacted revised laws to set up a joint command headquarters for the Self-Defense Forces' ground, maritime and air units by the end of March 2025 to bolster new security domains such as cyberspace. The launch of the new SDF headquarters also comes at a time when the U.S. is expected to strengthen the command functions of its military in Japan to enhance the bilateral alliance's interoperability amid security challenges such as China and North Korea. The House of Councillors passed the revised laws, which include amendments to the country's law for the establishment of the Defense Ministry, following approval by the House of Representatives last month. Consisting of about 240 personnel, the joint command will be headed by the joint headquarters commander, which will allow the chief of the SDF Joint Staff, the top uniformed officer, to focus entirely on supporting the defense minister. Defense Minister Minoru Kihara said May 10 at a press conference before the enactment that it is "essential" for the SDF's three branches to conduct integrated operations to deal with new security challenges, including those in outer space and cyberspace. The review of the SDF and the U.S. forces' command and control architecture was agreed on by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and U.S. President Joe Biden when they held talks in Washington in April. Click here to read... [22]

Pentagon chief confirms US pause on weapons shipment to Israel

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has confirmed reports that the United States paused a weapons shipment to Israel, as President Joe Biden’s administration faces growing pressure to condition aid to the top US ally amid the war in Gaza. Testifying before a US congressional subcommittee on May 08, Austin said the Biden administration had paused “one shipment of high payload munitions” amid concerns about the Israeli military’s push to invade the southern Gaza city of Rafah. “We’ve been very clear … from the very beginning that Israel shouldn’t launch a major attack into Rafah without accounting for and protecting the civilians that are in that battlespace,” Austin told US lawmakers. “We’ve not made a final determination on how to proceed with that shipment [of weapons],” the Pentagon chief added, noting that the transfer is separate from a supplemental aid package for Israel that was passed in late April. “My final comment is that we are absolutely committed to continuing to support Israel in its right to defend itself.” President Biden himself spoke to the prospect of withholding weapons from Israel in an interview that aired on CNN later on May 08, denouncing the prospect of a major offensive in Rafah. Click here to read... [23]

Iran warns it will change nuclear doctrine if ‘existence threatened’

Iran could be pushed into building a nuclear weapon if Israel threatens its existence, an adviser to the country’s supreme leader has warned. “We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine,” said Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on May 09. “In the case of an attack on our nuclear facilities by the Zionist regime, our deterrence will change,” he was reported as saying by Iran’s Student News Network. The comments have raised questions about what Iran has long claimed is a peaceful nuclear programme. Khamenei, who has the final say on the matter, banned the development of nuclear weapons in a fatwa, or religious edict, in the early 2000s, saying it is “haram”, or forbidden in Islam. But in 2021, Iran’s then-intelligence minister said Western pressure could push the Islamic republic to seek nuclear weapons. Iran is enriching uranium to up to 60 percent purity, whereas weapons-grade uranium is enriched to about 90 percent. If the current nuclear material on hand were enriched further, it would suffice for two nuclear weapons, according to an official yardstick by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Click here to read... [24]

Gaza ceasefire talks end with no deal as Israel ramps up Rafah attacks

The Israeli military has ramped up its attacks in Rafah, southern Gaza, and hit Gaza City while crippling humanitarian aid operations across the Palestinian territory as ceasefire talks ended without a deal. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) said on May 10 that 110,000 Palestinians have fled Rafah. Israeli troops were advancing in the east of the city in close combat operations and conducting air raids. “People are petrified. People have been fearing this for a long, long time and it is now upon us. There is constant bombardment. There is smoke on the horizon. There are people on the move,” Sam Rose, director of planning for the UNRWA, told Al Jazeera from Rafah. He said Israel was subjecting Gaza to a “medieval siege” in a “scorched earth” war. Israeli forces earlier this week seized control of the Rafah border crossing, sealing the crucial entry point for humanitarian aid. “No aid has come into Gaza now since May 05. No aid, no fuel, no supplies, nothing. And we really are now down to our last reserves,” Rose said. “We have a few more days of flour that we can provide. But everything else will start to shut down very soon without fuel, without water. So the situation is really desperate,” he added. Click here to read... [25]

United Nations General Assembly backs Palestinian bid for membership

The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has backed a Palestinian bid to become a full UN member by recognising it as qualified to join and recommending the UN Security Council “reconsider the matter favourably”. The vote by the 193-member UNGA on May 10 was a global survey of support for the Palestinian bid to become a full UN member – a move that would effectively recognise a Palestinian state – after the United States vetoed it in the UN Security Council last month. The assembly adopted a resolution on May 10 with 143 votes in favour and nine against – including the US and Israel – while 25 countries abstained. It does not give the Palestinians full UN membership, but simply recognises them as qualified to join. The UNGA resolution “determines that the State of Palestine … should therefore be admitted to membership” and it “recommends that the Security Council reconsider the matter favourably”. While the UNGA alone cannot grant full UN membership, the draft resolution on May 10 will give the Palestinians some additional rights and privileges from September 2024 – like a seat among the UN members in the assembly hall – but it will not be granted a vote in the body. Reporting from the UN headquarters in New York, Al Jazeera’s Gabriel Elizondo said it was significant that such a high number of countries voted in favour of the resolution. Click here to read... [26]

Japan delegation to Taiwan largest yet for a new president

A cross-party group of pro-Taiwan Japanese lawmakers announced it will send a delegation to Taiwan for the May 20 inauguration of Lai Ching-te as the island’s new president. The delegation comprised of more than 30 people will be the largest ever for a presidential inauguration, according to the May 9 announcement at the group’s general meeting in Tokyo. Lai, the current vice president of Taiwan, sent a video message to the meeting, saying that Taiwan and Japan are in the same boat, sharing the destiny of life and death. He stressed that Taiwan’s emergency is Japan’s emergency, and vice versa. “Our biggest role is to strengthen cooperation with Taiwan as well as the United States and other countries that share the same values,” said the group’s head, Keiji Furuya, who is from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Hsieh Chang-ting, head of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Japan, also attended the meeting. The delegation will visit Taiwan from May 18 to 20. Arrangements are being made for meetings with Lai, outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen and legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu. Group members also agreed to hold an in-person meeting of lawmakers from Japan, Taiwan and the United States at the earliest possible opportunity. Additionally, the group donated 1 million yen ($6,400) for victims of the earthquake that struck Taiwan in April. Click here to read... [27]

Putin replaces Shoigu as Russia’s defense minister as he starts his 5th term

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 12 replaced Sergei Shoigu as defense minister in a Cabinet shakeup that comes as he begins his fifth term in office. In line with Russian law, the entire Russian Cabinet resigned May 07 following Putin’s glittering inauguration in the Kremlin, and most members have been widely expected to keep their jobs, while Shoigu’s fate had appeared uncertain. Putin signed a decree on May 12 appointing Shoigu as secretary of Russia’s Security Council, the Kremlin said. The appointment was announced shortly after Putin proposed Andrei Belousov to become the country’s defense minister in place of Shoigu. The announcement of Shoigu’s new role came as 13 people were reported dead and 20 more wounded in Russia’s border city of Belgorod, where a 10-story apartment building partially collapsed after what Russian officials said was Ukrainian shelling. Ukraine hasn’t commented on the incident. Belousov’s candidacy will need to be approved by Russia’s upper house in parliament, the Federation Council. It reported May 12 that Putin introduced proposals for other Cabinet positions as well, but Shoigu is the only minister on that list who is being replaced. Several other new candidates for federal ministers were proposed May 11 by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, reappointed by Putin on May 10. Click here to read... [28]

U.S., Australian and Philippine forces sink a ship during war drills in the disputed South China Sea

Military force from the United States, Australian and the Philippines launched a barrage of high-precision rockets, artillery fire and airstrikes to sink a ship May 08 as part of large-scale war drills in waters facing the disputed South China Sea that have antagonized Beijing. Military officials and diplomats from several countries, along with journalists, watched the display of firepower from a hilltop along a sandy coast in Laoag City on May 08 in Ilocos Norte, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s northern home province. More than 16,000 military personnel from the United States and the Philippines, backed by a few hundred Australian troops and military observers from 14 countries were participating in annual combat-readiness drills called Balikatan, Tagalog for shoulder-to-shoulder, which started on April 22 and will end on May 10. It’s the latest indication of how the United States and the Philippines have bolstered a defense treaty alliance that started in the 1950s. Marcos has ordered his military to shift its focus to external defense from decades-long domestic anti-insurgency operations as China’s increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea become a top concern. That strategic shift dovetails with the efforts of President Joe Biden and his administration to reinforce an arc of alliances in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China. Click here to read... [29]

Japan doubles development aid in 10 years, vying with China

Japan's official development assistance (ODA) reached a record $19.6 billion in 2023, as the country ramps up foreign aid amid the growing influence of China -- and its massive infrastructure aid projects -- in the Indo-Pacific. Tokyo also has increased investment in international organizations to provide aid for Ukraine following the Russian invasion and to assist poor countries affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Japan's ODA total has doubled over 10 years from $9.5 billion in 2014, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. In 2022, the aid reached $17.5 billion. The 2023 figure is preliminary. The government, in a development cooperation charter revised last June, said it would work harder to offer assistance proactively, even to countries that have not asked for help. Tokyo looks to create opportunities for cooperation in areas like decarbonization and digital technology. Tokyo is focusing on the Indo-Pacific, seeking to stem the region's increasing dependence on China. The June charter states that Japan will achieve cooperation without economic coercion and without compromising the independence and sustainability of developing countries. Japan's efforts include South Asia, a key region in maritime transport connecting East Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Tokyo has continued to provide support to regional powers like India in the form of large-scale infrastructure projects, including expressways and subways. Click here to read... [30]

Health

White House to Push Cybersecurity Standards on Hospitals

The Biden administration intends to require hospitals to meet minimum cybersecurity standards after a single hack exposed the data of 100 million Americans. “We look to putting in place minimum cybersecurity standards for hospitals in the near term,” Anne Neuberger, deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technology, said in an interview at the Bloomberg Tech Summit in San Francisco on May 10. Neuberger didn’t spell out the timeline in which the administration plans to push out the rule. The proposal may extend beyond hospitals too. The administration intends to issue a notice of proposed rulemaking in coming weeks to bring in minimum cybersecurity requirements for entities that receive money from Medicare and Medicaid, according to a US official, who asked not to be named to discuss sensitive plans. That would be followed by a period of public comment, the official said. The announcement follows a February hack against Change Healthcare, a unit of UnitedHealth Group Inc., that snarled billions of dollars of payments to doctors and hospitals, delayed patient care and saw hackers make off with patient medical data of as many as one in three Americans. The intrusion at Change — a central node in the health-care system that carried terabytes of data for doctors, pharmacies, insurers and the government — demonstrated the way a single point of failure can compromise a nationwide industry. Click here to read... [31]

1 in 6 elderly in Japan estimated to have dementia in 2060

In 2060, 17.7 percent of Japanese age 65 or older will likely have dementia, the health ministry announced on May 8. That forecast amounts to 6.45 million people, up from an estimated 4.43 million people who were suffering from dementia in 2022. In addition, in 2060 another 6.32 million elderly people, or 17.4 percent of those 65 and older, are expected to have mild cognitive impairment, a stage prior to dementia, up from an estimated 5.58 million. Combined, around one in three elderly Japanese people is expected to have problems with their cognitive functions in 2060. Previous ministry estimates showed that the number of people with dementia would reach 8.5 million in 2060. Toshiharu Ninomiya, a professor of epidemiology at Kyushu University who was responsible for the latest study, said a fall in the smoking rate and advances in high blood pressure and diabetes treatments could have curbed the decline in cognitive functions. The latest study was conducted from fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2023, covering 7,143 elderly people in four areas in Japan. Prevalence rates for dementia and other symptoms were estimated, and mid- to long-term projections were made based on the future population estimated by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Click here to read... [32]