Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (08-14 April 2024)

Economic

What overcapacity? China says its industries are simply more competitive

The last day of U.S. Secretary Janet Yellen’s trip to China coincided with the strongest retort yet from Beijing officials over her claims that China is flooding global markets with cheap goods, particularly in the new green industries. As Yellen laid out plans to formalise dialogue with China over excess industrial capacity in electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels and batteries, saying Washington would not accept U.S. industry being “decimated”, the Chinese finance ministry issued a statement saying it had already “fully responded” to her concerns. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, at a roundtable meeting with Chinese EV makers in Paris on April 08, said U.S. and European assertions of excess capacity were groundless, adding China’s rise in these industries was driven by innovation and complete supply chain systems, among other factors. China’s latest response, analysts say, centers on the idea that its production system is simply more competitive, a sharp change in tone from only a month ago when officials including Premier Li Qiang sounded their own warnings on overcapacity. The strong pushback from Beijing contrasts with the generally warm interactions between Yellen and Chinese officials during her trip, leaving the two largest economies further apart on the hottest dispute in global trade, which could add to tensions. Click here to read... [2]

China is boosting Russia's war machine in Ukraine, U.S. says

China is backing Russia's war effort in Ukraine by helping Moscow in its biggest military buildup since the Soviet era, providing drone and missile technology, satellite imagery and machine tools, senior U.S. officials said on April 12. However, the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. said it has not provided weaponry to any party, adding that it is "not a producer of or party involved in the Ukraine crisis." The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said U.S. President Joe Biden raised the issue with Chinese President Xi Jinping in their recent phone call and that it is a topic of discussion with U.S. allies in Europe and around the world. One official said Chinese materials are filling critical gaps in Russia's defense production cycle and helping Moscow undertake its "most ambitious defense expansion since the Soviet era and on a faster timeline than we believed possible early on in this conflict." "Our view is that one of the most game-changing moves available to us at this time to support Ukraine is to persuade the PRC (China) to stop helping Russia reconstitute its military industrial base. Russia would struggle to sustain its war effort without PRC input," the official said. A Chinese embassy spokesperson told Reuters that normal trade between China and Russia should not be interfered or restricted. Click here to read... [3]

‘Get used to tighter belts’: how China’s local governments and Communist Party bodies are embracing cost-cutting culture

Local government and Communist Party agencies in China are rolling out rules to cut spending, including greater use of new energy vehicles, less tea and fewer indoor plants. They vowed to “get used to living a tight life” in every aspect in keeping with Beijing’s persistent call as the country’s economy falters. The northwestern province of Shaanxi has mandated that new energy vehicles account for at least 40 per cent of newly procured and replaced official vehicles at the provincial level, excluding those for special purposes, according to the official Shaanxi Daily newspaper. In Fujian province in southeastern China, “personal use of public resources” – such as using office supplies to print test papers and workbooks for the children of employees – should be “resolutely eliminated”, the Changting county education bureau said in a notice to all faculty and staff on April 07. “[We should] resolutely wipe out the prolonged practice of sitting around and brewing tea in the office,” it added. Fujian is one of the major tea-producing provinces of China and has a strong tea culture. The government office administration of the city of Luan in nearby Anhui province pledged on Sunday to cut the overall number of indoor plants in office areas by one-third, estimating it would save more than 30,000 yuan (over US$4,000) a year. Click here to read... [4]

U.S. airlines, unions ask officials to pause China flight increases

The United States' largest airlines and several aviation industry unions have asked the Biden administration to pause additional flight increases between the U.S. and China, citing concerns over "existing harmful anti-competitive policies of the Chinese government," according to a joint letter published on April 11. Chinese carriers were permitted to increase the weekly number of roundtrip flights to the U.S. from 35 to 50 -- the same number granted to U.S. carriers -- starting on March 31, following a U.S. Department of Transportation approval in February. "If the growth of the Chinese aviation market is allowed to continue unchecked and without concern for equality of access in the market, flights will continue to be relinquished to Chinese carriers at the expense of U.S. workers and businesses," said the letter, which was addressed to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. The letter was signed by industry trade group Airlines for America, the Air Line Pilots Association, Allied Pilots Association and the Association of Flight Attendants. Airlines for America represents major carriers including American Airlines, United and Delta. The letter highlighted what it described as China's anti-competitive actions, including burdensome rules imposed on U.S. carriers following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and protections extended to Chinese airlines due to their relationship with Beijing. Click here to read... [5]

U.S. Steel shareholders approve $14.9 billion buyout by Nippon Steel

U.S. Steel shareholders on April 12 approved its proposed $14.9 billion acquisition by Japan's Nippon Steel, taking the merger one step closer to completion even as political opposition to the deal mounts. U.S. Steel said that over 98 percent of the votes were in favor of the deal under which Nippon will pay $55 per share, an amount that represented a hefty premium when the takeover was announced in December. Since then, however, several U.S. lawmakers have come out in opposition to the deal, citing national security concerns. President Joe Biden has said U.S. Steel must remain a domestically owned American firm. U.S. Steel's shares closed down 2.1% on April 12. The deal has also drawn strong criticism from the United Steelworkers (USW) labor union, which is worried about potential job losses. "We are not surprised by stockholders electing to cash in and sell out the iconic American company's employees and retirees," the USW said in response to the vote. Regulators are also scrutinizing the deal. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a powerful panel that reviews foreign investments in U.S. companies, has met with the parties to discuss the deal, Reuters has reported. The U.S. Justice Department has opened an in-depth antitrust investigation into the takeover, Politico reported on April 10. Click here to read... [6]

Uzbekistan chases chemical hub dream with Chinese polymer tech

An ambitious economic transformation effort gaining steam in Uzbekistan hinges on Chinese technology. At the heart of the plan is a project that would make value-added products from natural gas instead of simply burning it for energy. The Central Asian country's largest private oil and gas company, Sanoat Energetika Guruhi (Saneg), is working with Chinese state energy giant Sinopec to build what would be the world's first methanol-to-olefin gas chemical plant outside China. Olefins are raw materials for a range of polymer products such as plastics and films. The $3.3 billion facility would be able to turn 1.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas into 1.11 million tonnes of polymers a year by 2026. About 44% of the output is to be exported, mainly to China and Turkey. China is considered the pioneer in methanol-to-olefin technology, often simply known as MTO, and built the industry using methane from coal fields. "Lean" Uzbek natural gas is well-suited to the technology, according to Ruslan Navruzov, technical director of Uzbekistan's new MTO Gas Chemical Complex. The project underscores the deepening relationship between Uzbekistan and Beijing, with China overtaking Russia as the Central Asian nation's largest trading partner in 2023. China also accounted for a quarter of total foreign investment in Uzbekistan last year, in sectors ranging from renewables to churning out construction materials, medicines and electric buses. Click here to read... [7]

Close to half of households in Japan will have only one member in 2050

A dire trend in graying Japan is expected to worsen over the coming decades, with close to half of all households forecast to have only one member living alone in 2050. That prediction was released on April 12 by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. While the estimate was that 44.3 percent of households in 2050 would be a single member, the pace at which such households’ increases will accelerate over the 30-year period from 2020. Over that period, the ratio of one-person households is expected to rise by 6 percentage points. The institute makes such estimates of household numbers once every five years and the latest is based on the 2020 census. Estimates were made of the number of households from 2020 until 2050. There were 55.7 million households of all kinds in 2020 and that number is expected to increase to 57.73 million in 2030. But that will be the peak and the numbers are expected to decline from then. While the percentage of single-member households was 38 percent in 2020, it is expected to increase by 6.3 percentage points by 2050. In 2033, the average number of members in a household is expected to fall under two for the first time. Click here to read... [8]

US bans Russian metals

Washington has banned the import of Russian-origin aluminum, copper, and nickel into the US, and coordinated with the UK to crack down on the trade of these metals on global exchanges. The decision will affect metals produced in Russia after April 13, 2024, with the world’s leading commodity exchanges – the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) – set to ban trade in these metals. The new prohibitions will “continue to target the revenue Russia can earn” to fund its military operation in Ukraine, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a press release on April 12. The US aims to “reduce Russia’s earnings while protecting our partners and allies from unwanted spillover effects,” Yellen added. According to Moscow’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, this “unjustified and politicized step” will inevitably backfire. Washington’s decision is “probably based on calculations that commodity prices will not skyrocket in the US itself,” Antonov said, noting that the US has already reduced its own imports of Russian metals to a minimum. However, with this new “illegal” move, the US administration actually “provokes imbalances on the global markets by involving its satellite states in sanctions,” he added. Russia will take further steps to work around Western sanctions and diversify its foreign trade, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on April 09 on a visit to China. Click here to read... [9]

Türkiye launches trade war on Israel

The Turkish government has imposed export restrictions on Israel covering 54 product categories, in response to the Gaza war, the Trade Ministry announced on April 09. Ankara has been one of the fiercest critics of Israel since the conflict with Hamas broke out in October. Protests have been held in Istanbul in recent days demanding a trade ban. Ankara’s decision also follows the Israeli government’s refusal to allow Turkish aid drops into Gaza. According to Turkish Trade Ministry, the items on the export embargo list – which takes immediate effect – include aluminum, copper, steel, construction materials, machinery, and various chemical products. Türkiye had already stopped sending Israel any goods that could be used for military purposes, the ministry noted. The restrictions will remain in place until Israel declares a ceasefire in Gaza and allows “the unhindered flow of sufficient humanitarian aid” into the area, the document adds. Israel has been accused by the UN and human rights groups of obstructing the deliveries of aid into Gaza. In response to the restrictions, the Israeli Foreign Ministry accused Türkiye of “unilaterally” violating bilateral trade deals. Foreign Minister Israel Katz took to X (formerly Twitter) on April 09 to threaten Ankara with “parallel measures” that will “harm” the Turkish economy. Israel will prepare a list of products it intends to stop buying from Türkiye, he said. Click here to read... [10]

War in Ukraine Enters New Phase That Puts Energy in Crosshairs

Russia and Ukraine may have struggled to shift things significantly on the battlefield for more than 16 months, but a new phase of the war is moving the needle in a way that’s having wider repercussions. Both sides are now targeting energy assets to hit their enemy’s economy, and the collateral damage is showing up in global markets. The International Energy Agency warned on April 12 that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries risk disrupting trade in petroleum products like diesel. European gas prices jumped as much as 10% after Russia struck Ukraine’s gas and power infrastructure this week. Ukraine’s army is facing ammunition shortages, while the US is stalling new funding and European allies are trying to figure out how to ship more weapons. The latest strategy is to systematically attack Russian energy facilities, despite Washington voicing concern about the effect on oil and gas prices. So far this year, Ukraine targeted 14 major refineries and two smaller plants in Russia, with most of the attacks being successful in disrupting operations. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has launched three large-scale assaults on Ukraine’s electricity generation and directed drones and missiles at key gas infrastructure for the first time since its invasion more than two years ago. Click here to read... [11]

US Navy’s New Warship Is Plagued by Worker Turnover

The shipyard producing the US Navy’s new frigate has been hobbled by a failure to “achieve engineering and skilled workforce levels” for the medium-sized vessel, according to a service document on the project that’s now forecast to run as much as three years late. Fincantieri Marinette Marine has experienced “unprecedented poor workforce retention — high attrition rates,” according to an unreleased Navy briefing slide prepared for senior service and Pentagon officials late last month. It spelled out the shipyard’s woes in more detail than the publicly released findings of top Navy programs released last week. The company will require more than 1,600 skilled workers next year, up from more than 900 today, according to the slide. The Wisconsin-based unit of Italy’s Fincantieri SpA was picked by the US Navy in 2020 over three other contenders for the initial phase of its new frigate program. The frigate was conceived as a better-armed, better-armored but more expensive successor to the problem-plagued Littoral Combat Ship. The contractor was obligated to deliver the first of a potential 10 frigates by April 2026, but that’s now anticipated to slip by as much as 36 months. The previously unreported briefing slide made available to Bloomberg News outlines a harsher conclusion than Navy officials gave reporters last week when they outlined the findings. Click here to read... [12]

US, Japan, South Korea Finance Chiefs to Meet In Security Push

The US, Japan and South Korea will hold the first meeting of financial chiefs on April 17 in Washington, part of the coordinated efforts among the three allies to counter geopolitical and economic security threats. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok are expected to discuss sanctions against Russia and North Korea as well as supporting the Pacific Island nations, according to the US Treasury department and Japan’s finance ministry. The three are meeting on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings and discussions among Group of 20 nations this week. Washington, Tokyo and Seoul have been strengthening their security and economic security cooperation, trying to de-risk supply chains from exposure to China and teaming up on key technologies like semiconductors and artificial intelligence. The gathering among the three finance heads follows the landmark summit in August between US president Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at the Camp David presidential retreat. The three had also agreed to launch a new annual gathering among their industry ministers. “Japan and South Korea are important partners and neighbors to tackle various challenges in an international community,” Kishida said on April 12 in North Carolina, wrapping up his week-long visit to the US. “I believe that it is in the interest of both nations to expand cooperation in a multi-faceted manner.” Click here to read... [13]

Australia Joins the Global Subsidy Race to Promote Critical Industries

Australia’s government has joined the United States and the European Union in a race to lure in more business from abroad, with a focus on transition-related industries such as solar power and hydrogen. While the size of the subsidy pie has not been detailed, Reuters reports that the Future Made in Australia Act will allocate at least A$18 billion, or about $12 billion, for the effort. “Securing jobs, attracting investment, and building prosperity has never been a polite and gentle process where every nation gets a turn - it’s always a contest, it’s always a race,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to say in a speech later April 11, according to a transcript of the speech published on the PM’s website. “Being in the race does not guarantee our success – but sitting it out guarantees failure as the world moves past us,” the transcript also said, also noting that this would mean greater government participation in investments and markets in general. "We must recognize there is a new and widespread willingness to make economic interventions on the basis of national interest and national sovereignty," the PM’s speech also said. Australia has been struggling to keep its industrial sector in growth mode, but its current government subscribes to the belief, shared by the EU and the U.S., that a massive investment in transition technologies will change that. Click here to read... [14]

Turkey Aims to Triple Middle Corridor Trade by 2030

Turkey is pressing ahead with a tripartite agreement with Georgia and Azerbaijan, aiming to speed freight rail traffic along a Middle Corridor trade route connecting China and Europe via the Caspian Sea. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed a memorandum of understanding on April 7 that aims to simplify customs procedures along the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, one of the rail routes that carry goods from Azerbaijani ports on the Caspian to markets in Europe. Erdogan did not release a statement about the signing, but speaking at the railroad’s opening ceremony in 2017, he said the route can promote “political peace, security and stability, and social prosperity.” Turkey is seeking to solidify its role as a mainstay in the Middle Corridor web of trade routes. An alternate route traverses the Black Sea between Georgia and Romania, but it is unappealing at the moment due to the war in Ukraine. Georgia, for its part, is betting on a big increase in demand over both routes, signing onto initiatives like the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars customs agreement, while also building a deepwater port. The goal for Erdogan is to maintain Turkey’s historic role as a nexus of East-West trade. Last year, Erdogan felt he was snubbed by the Western leaders after a handful of countries signed plans for a trade corridor bypassing Turkey at the G20 meeting in September. Click here to read... [15]

Artificial Intelligence’s ‘Insatiable’ Energy Needs Not Sustainable, Arm CEO Says

Chip-design company Arm made its name by devising ways to minimize smartphones’ power consumption and extend battery life. Now, the company’s head says the same push for energy efficiency is needed in artificial-intelligence applications. Rene Haas, chief executive of Arm, spoke ahead of an announcement April 09 by the U.S. and Japan about a $110 million program to fund AI research at universities in the two countries. U.K.-based Arm and its parent, Tokyo-based SoftBank Group, are together offering $25 million in funding for the program. AI models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT “are just insatiable in terms of their thirst” for electricity, Haas said in an interview. “The more information they gather, the smarter they are, but the more information they gather to get smarter, the more power it takes.” Without greater efficiency, “by the end of the decade, AI data centers could consume as much as 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements. Today that’s probably 4% or less,” he said. “That’s hardly very sustainable, to be honest with you.” The power issue has drawn growing attention from technology executives in recent months and helped drive up the stock prices of companies that own and operate electric-power plants. In a January report, the International Energy Agency said a request to ChatGPT requires 2.9 watt-hours of electricity on average—equivalent to turning on a 60-watt lightbulb for just under three minutes. That is nearly 10 times as much as the average Google search. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Israel, Allies Mostly Block Unprecedented Attack From Iran

Israel and its allies intercepted most of the attack drones and missiles launched by Iran, which said it was retaliating for a strike in Syria that killed top Iranian military officers. It was the first time Iran has struck Israel from its soil. Iran launched more than 200 ballistic and cruise missiles and attack drones, Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said early April 14. A 10-year-old girl was badly injured and there was minor damage to an army base, he said. Hagari earlier called the attack “a severe and dangerous escalation.” US President Joe Biden held a phone call with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the attack was countered. Biden, who had returned to the White House from his private residence in Delaware on April 13, said in a statement that American commitment to Israel’s security is “ironclad.” Biden will speak with G7 leaders on April 14 “to coordinate a united diplomatic response” to the attack, according to the statement. Biden told Netanyahu that the US won’t support an Israeli counterattack against Iran, Axios reported, citing an unidentified senior White House official. Iran’s mission to the United Nations said the action was a “legitimate” defensive response to the strike in Damascus, which Israel hasn’t acknowledged carrying out. “The matter can be deemed concluded,” it said in a social media post. “However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe.” Click here to read... [17]

Biden and Kishida strengthen bonds to defend global order

U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida issued a joint leaders' statement after their meeting on April 10, declaring that their countries will be "global partners" going forward, acting together on the world stage to uphold and bolster a free and open international order based on the rule of law. As they met in the Oval Office, Biden said the alliance has "never been stronger in our entire history." He commended Kishida for supporting the U.S. in Ukraine, rebuilding ties with South Korea, and more, saying: "You personally have made all this possible." The joint statement, titled "Global Partners for the Future," noted that the two countries are synchronizing their strategies and working together to address the most pressing challenges and opportunities for the future. An 18-page fact sheet released with the statement listed around 70 new agreements, or "deliverables." These included cooperation in such areas as defense, space, economic security, artificial intelligence, fusion energy and disaster relief. "This is probably the largest set of substantial, significant deliverables that we've seen of its kind," a senior U.S. official told reporters April 09, noting that typically, the agreements at a bilateral summit range from 12 to 20. The official said that preparations for the state-level visit have been in the making for years and that it would be "the fundamental validation of President Biden's Indo-Pacific strategy," which seeks to maintain an open and secure Indo-Pacific together with allies. Click here to read... [18]

Philippines wins breakthrough at summit with Japan, U.S., experts say

Soon after a trilateral summit at the White House, the Philippine coast guard welcomed the resulting "positive endeavor" in maritime security with Japan and the U.S., with some experts asserting Manila has left itself room to improve relations with Beijing regarding longstanding tensions in the South China Sea. "The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) has welcomed the recent announcement during the trilateral summit between the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S., specifically on the establishment of a trilateral maritime dialogue to enhance coordination and collective responses to promote maritime cooperation," the PCG said in a statement released April 12 afternoon. The PCG's reaction came hours after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. joined a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Washington. The first-ever Philippine-Japan-U.S. summit took place early April 12 Asia time. The coast guard's words echo the joint statement issued after the meeting. A line reads, "We resolve to advance trilateral defense cooperation, including through combined naval training and exercises between our three countries and additional partners ... and by coordinating U.S. and Japanese support for Philippine defense modernization priorities." The three countries plus Australia on April 07 conducted naval drills in the South China Sea. In a related matter, talks on a reciprocal access agreement between Manila and Tokyo are said to be in the final stage. Click here to read... [19]

Russia's plan to form ties with Taliban edges U.S. out of region

Russia's plan to remove the Taliban from its list of banned terrorist organizations signals it wants closer ties with the regime as it tries to edge out U.S. influence in the region, analysts said. Moscow said this month it was speaking with Taliban leaders and working on making that change, weeks after gunmen stormed a concert hall and set off explosions, killing around 140 people. Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the attack, and the U.S. and other Western countries had laid the blame at its Afghan branch, known as ISIS-Khorasan Province or ISIS-K. Moscow, however, had sought to point the finger at Ukraine and Washington. The Taliban government has struggled to fight ISIS-K, which has gained a stronghold in Afghanistan. The day before the Moscow attack, ISIS-K militants killed at least three Afghans and wounded dozens in Kandahar. The Moscow attack has given both the Kremlin and Taliban impetus to work together to fight not just ISIS-K but also the U.S., which they see as a common threat, analysts said. "When terrorists attack Russia, Russians tend to believe that the terrorists are secretly aided or supported by the U.S.," Barnett Rubin, a distinguished fellow at the Center on International Cooperation at New York University, said in an interview. This was despite the U.S. having warned Moscow of a potential attack from an Afghanistan-based group in the days before. Click here to read... [20]

Myanmar military faces humiliating rout on Thai border

Myanmar civil servants and officials of the military regime began evacuating the eastern town of Myawaddy on the Thai-Myanmar border on April 07 night in one of the most significant setbacks for the regime since its takeover on Feb. 1, 2021. The Karen National Union, a prominent anti-regime force in Myanmar's eastern state of Kayin, and Thai sources confirmed that the first of several Burmese charter planes had left the Thai town of Mae Sot, just across the border from Myawaddy, with a small group of regime officials as well as documents and what one official described as "sensitive cargo" on board, understood to include cash assets from state bank branches in Myawaddy. Separately, more than 600 military personnel including about 140 family members have surrendered to forces led by the KNU since the KNU and People's Defense Forces in recent weeks increased their attacks on military bases near Myawaddy. Photos posted on social media over the weekend showed KNU and PDF fighters accessing vast stores of light weapons and ammunition in the abandoned bases. The PDF is the armed wing of the National Unity Government -- the parallel government led by ousted political leaders elected democratically before the military takeover. Other images posted on April 07 evening showed cars loaded with passengers and baggage moving across a key bridge leading from Myawaddy to the adjacent Thai border town of Mae Sot. Click here to read... [21]

Chinese official talks with North Korean counterpart in the nations’ highest-level meeting in years

A top Chinese official arrived in North Korea and held talks on how to boost their cooperation, North Korea’s state media reported April 12, in the counties’ highest-level meeting in about five years. Zhao Leji, who is chairman of China’s National People’s Congress and considered the No. 3 official in the ruling Communist Party, arrived in North Korea on April 11. China’s government earlier said he will stay in North Korea until April 13. Zhao met his North Korean counterpart Choe Ryong Hae later April 11 and discussed how to promote exchanges and cooperation on all areas such as politics, economy and culture, the North’s official Korean Central News Agency reported. The two also exchanged views on unspecified regional and international issues of mutual concerns, KCNA said. Zhao is one of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the Communist Party’s top leadership body headed by Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Zhao’s visit to North Korea marked the first bilateral exchange involving a Chinese Politburo Standing Committee member since the coronavirus pandemic started. In 2019, the two countries held two summit meetings between Xi and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Observers say North Korea and China are expected to hold a number of exchanges this year to mark the 75th year since they established diplomatic ties. Click here to read... [22]

U.S. Coast Guard says boardings of Chinese fishing vessels in South Pacific legal

The U.S. Coast Guard has rejected comments by a Chinese diplomat that its recent boardings of Chinese fishing boats in the Pacific Islands alongside local police are illegal, saying the joint patrols are at the behest of Pacific nations to protect coastal fisheries. Reuters reported last month that six Chinese fishing boats were found to be violating Vanuatu’s fisheries law after being inspected by local police who were on board the first U.S. Coast Guard boat to patrol the waters of the Pacific Islands nation. China’s Ambassador to New Zealand Wang Xiaolong, in a letter circulated by the Chinese embassy on April 12, said the use of shiprider agreements between the U.S. and Vanuatu, Kiribati and Papua New Guinea to “carry out law enforcement activities against China’s fishing vessels” was a violation of international law. In the letter, Wang claimed the agreements are not binding on China’s fishing fleet. “China is not obliged to accept the law enforcement of countries other than coastal states for fishing activities in their exclusive economic zones,” the letter said. U.S. Coast Guard Rear Admiral Michael Day on April 10 said the Chinese ambassador’s statement was inaccurate and the bilateral shiprider agreements complied with international law. Click here to read... [23]

Kiev’s top spy reveals main intermediary with Russia

The United Arab Emirates has emerged as the prime mediator between Kiev and Moscow regarding prisoner exchanges, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Kirill Budanov, has claimed. He also backed a proposal put forward by Pope Francis, who last month called for a swap that would encompass all POWs from the two states. Türkiye has been viewed as the top intermediary between Kiev and Moscow following the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022. The first attempt at peace negotiations took place in March of the same year in Istanbul. Russian President Vladimir Putin subsequently said the Ukrainian delegation had initially agreed to a number of Moscow’s terms during the talks, but then abruptly reneged on the deal. In an interview with Germany’s ARD broadcaster published on April 07, Budanov claimed that Ankara has ceased to play a central role in prisoner swaps, with the UAE taking its place. Commenting on the Pope’s initiative, the top Ukrainian spy said: “I fully support this. Let us do it. There remains only one little thing: to persuade Russia.” According to the official, Moscow has not demonstrated any interest in such a POW exchange. The last publicly confirmed prisoner swap between Kiev and Moscow took place in early February, when the Russian Defense Ministry reported that a total of 100 Russian POWs had returned home as part of a deal mediated by the UAE. Click here to read... [24]

The US and Its Allies Face a $10 Trillion Reckoning in the Race to Rearm

A new era of global rearmament is gathering pace, and it will mean vast costs and some tough decisions for western governments already struggling with shaky public finances. Despite world defense spending reaching a record $2.2 trillion last year, European Union nations have only just begun to consider what 21st-century security will require with an aggressive Russia stirring on their eastern borders, a volatile Middle East, and the expansion of the Chinese military tugging Washington’s attention toward the Pacific. Political leaders have been congratulating themselves on the progress toward NATO’s targets for members of the alliance to set aside 2% of their gross domestic product on defense. But officials focused on security say that military budgets may need to emulate Cold War spending of as high as 4% in order to deliver on the alliance’s plans. If the US and its Group of Seven allies were to reach such levels, that would equate to more than $10 trillion of additional commitments over the next decade, according to calculations by Bloomberg Economics. “The post-Cold War ‘peace dividend’ is coming to an end,” said Jennifer Welch, BE’s chief geoeconomics analyst. “That’s likely to have a transformative effect on defense companies, on public finances and on financial markets.” Click here to read... [25]

Big Loss Turns Pro-Business Yoon Into Lame Duck in South Korea

About two years after winning South Korea’s presidency, Yoon Suk Yeol is already looking like a lame duck. A stinging defeat in April 10’s parliamentary election has derailed his conservative pro-business agenda and will make it harder to deal for the remaining three years of his term with a left-leaning bloc that strengthened its hold on the legislature. While investors expected the election outcome to deal a blow to Yoon’s investor-friendly capital-markets policies, continued optimism on chip stocks overshadowed the ruling party’s defeat and helped Kospi erase its earlier loss of 1.6%. Analysts said the results could make it tougher for Yoon to push through initiatives to benefit investors such as scuttling a capital gains tax, while likely sinking his flagship policy of boosting stock valuations via the “Corporate Value-Up” program. “It will be difficult for Yoon, who will fall into a lame duck, to push for any major policy initiatives, domestic or foreign,” said Gi-Wook Shin, director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. Yoon will have little room to move on the legislative front after the vote April 10 where his conservative People Power Party bloc lost seats and was reduced to about 108 spots in the 300-seat unicameral parliament known as the National Assembly. Click here to read... [26]

What Does Neom’s Downsize Means for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030?

The scaling back of the megacity project is attributed to budget constraints, with the Public Investment Fund's cash reserves dropping to $15bn in September 2023. Saudi Arabia has scaled back some of its ambitions for its desert megacity Neom, according to a report by Bloomberg. The $1.5 trillion megacity project, which organizers claim will be 33 times the size of New York City, is due to include a 170km straight-line city. When launching The Line in 2021, the Saudi government had announced that 1.5 million people would be living in the city by 2030. Officials now expect there to be fewer than 300,000 residents by that time, according to a source cited by Bloomberg. The source said that officials expected only 2.4km of the 170km city to be completed by 2030. As a result of the scaling back, one contractor dismissed some of the workers it employs on site, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. Neom - part of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 strategy to diversify the economy and move away from oil reliance - is being built in the northwestern Tabuk province. Middle East Eye reported last year that construction was under way on The Line, based on satellite imagery. The Line is due to have no cars or roads, and a high-speed rail service running across the length of the city, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced three years ago. Click here to read... [27]

Xi Leverages Former Taiwanese President to Send Signal to U.S.

Xi Jinping welcomed former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou to Beijing on April 10, underscoring the Chinese leader’s preoccupation with Taiwan as Washington hosts a summit with the two Asian allies most likely to be pulled into a conflict around the island. Reports and images of the meeting in Beijing were carried by state broadcaster China Central Television and by Taiwanese media on April 10, showing Xi and Ma shaking hands and exchanging remarks touting the prospects for improved relations across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait that separates Taiwan from mainland China. “Both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese people,” Xi said, according to the footage, saying that he “highly appraises” Ma’s efforts in promoting cross-strait ties. “There is no problem that cannot be discussed. There is no force that can separate us.” A conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan has become a commonplace discussion in the national security community. A military strategist lays out the outcome of a potential war in the Taiwan Strait based on recently conducted war games. Nearly a decade earlier in 2015, a historic meeting between Xi and then-President Ma in Singapore—the first between leaders of the two rival regimes since the Communist victory in the Chinese Civil War in 1949—marked a high point in cross-strait relations. Click here to read... [28]

A warning to China? US plans to deploy medium-range missile launchers in the Asia-Pacific

Washington’s deployment of ground-based launchers for its medium-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region for the first time in nearly four decades is a “warning” to Beijing against military advancement and a conflict across the Taiwan Strait, according to analysts. During a visit to South Korea on April 06, General Charles Flynn, the US Army Pacific commander, said the army would soon deploy a new missile launch system that could fire its latest “long-range precision fires”, such as the Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) interceptor and the maritime-strike Tomahawk, in the Asia-Pacific. “That system will be deploying into the region soon. Where and when it’s going to go, I’m not going to talk about that now,” Yonhap News quoted Flynn as saying at Camp Humphreys, a US Forces Korea base in Pyeongtaek near Seoul. In response, the Chinese foreign ministry said Beijing had always been “firmly opposed” to US deployment of medium-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific and strengthening forward deployment at “China’s doorstep to seek unilateral military superiority”. “China adheres to the path of peaceful development and firmly pursues a defensive national defence policy. We have no interest in competing with any country in military power,” ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on April 08. “We urge the United States to earnestly respect the security concerns of other countries and stop undermining regional peace and stability.” Click here to read... [29]

South China Sea: Beijing to set up naval hotline with Vietnam as Philippine maritime tensions spike

China and Vietnam have agreed to set up a new navy hotline, with observers saying the move may be a message to Manila as territorial tensions flare with Beijing in the South China Sea, where Hanoi is also a claimant. The deal came as the Chinese defence minister, Dong Jun, met his Vietnamese counterpart in what was his first overseas trip since taking office in December. Dong met Phan Van Giang in northern Vietnam near their shared border on April 11, as part of the eighth Vietnam-China border defence friendship exchange. The two ministers signed a memorandum of understanding on a hotline between the Vietnamese navy and the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theatre Command, which oversees the South China Sea. “China is willing to join hands with Vietnam to firmly support each other’s core interests and major concerns and bring the strategic mutual trust between the two militaries to a new height,” Dong said. The former PLA naval commander also called on the two sides to “make maritime cooperation a new highlight of cooperation between the two militaries [and enhance the ability to jointly maintain maritime security”. Giang said China had “always been one of the top priorities in Vietnam’s foreign policy”, stressing that the significance of the border defence friendship exchange was to “promote mutual political trust and understanding”, and strengthen solidarity and closer ties. Click here to read... [30]

Ex-Philippine Leader Duterte Slams US, Marcos in Chinese Media

Former President Rodrigo Duterte accused the US of inflaming tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, while criticizing his successor Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of supposedly doing America’s bidding. “The Americans are the ones pushing the Philippine government to go out there and find a quarrel and eventually maybe start a war,” Duterte was quoted as saying in an interview with Communist Party-run Global Times published April 12. “But I do not think that America will die for us.” The former president — who brought the Philippines closer to China during his term as part of his “independent foreign policy” — said that discussions between Beijing and Manila on the sea dispute won’t prosper under Marcos. “You cannot talk to him because it is the Americans that will tell him what he should say to you,” Duterte said, offering to negotiate with China to ease tensions. Duterte’s interview with the Global Times came out as the Philippines forged closer ties with the US and Japan in the first trilateral summit among the nations hosted by President Joe Biden. Under Marcos, the Philippines has adopted a more assertive stance in the South China Sea, where clashes against Chinese vessels have been increasing in the past year. The former leader also signaled he’s open to speaking out publicly more often to advocate for China and indicated that should he regain a position of influence, he would undo Marcos’s decision to give Americans more access to its military bases. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Scientists say being chubby helps offset age-related frailty

Being obese may lead to a lower likelihood of death among elderly people with deteriorated mental and physical conditions called frailty, a team of researchers has found. Those free from the age-associated frailty are at the least risk of mortality when they are a little overweight, the team reported. The findings were announced by scientists from Waseda University, the National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition, Biwako Seikei Sport College and Kyoto University of Advanced Science. “Though elderly individuals are believed to less likely die if they are moderately overweight, the situation can be different, depending on whether they have frailty,” said Daiki Watanabe, an assistant professor of nutritional epidemiology at Waseda University, who was part of the research team. “While being extremely thin may keep elderly people from living longer lives, it is true at the same time that being fatter does not necessarily ensure a longer life.” The term “frailty” refers to an intermediate stage between the states of health and illness. This condition draws particular attention, as proper health management is important to stop nursing care from becoming necessary. The team examined the health conditions, lifestyles and other factors of 10,912 residents who were 65 or older in Kameoka, Kyoto Prefecture. Their average age was 74. Whether they have frailty was determined based on the 25-item checklist developed by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. A total of 4,763 were identified as frail because they met seven or more prerequisites. Click here to read... [32]