Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (25-31 March 2024)

Economic

Why is Japan changing its ban on exporting lethal weapons, and why is it so controversial?

Japan’s Cabinet OK’d a plan to sell future next-generation fighter jets to other countries on March 26, its latest step away from the pacifist principles the country adopted at the end of World War II. The controversial decision to allow international arms sales is expected to help secure Japan’s role in a year-old project to develop a new fighter jet together with Italy and the U.K., but it’s also part of a move to build up Japan’s arms industry and bolster its role in global affairs. For now, Tokyo says that it doesn’t plan to export co-developed lethal weapons other than the new fighters, which aren’t expected to enter service until 2035. Here is a look at what the latest change is about and why Japan is rapidly easing weapons export rules. On March 26, the Cabinet approved a revision to its guidelines for selling defense equipment overseas and authorized sales of the future jet. The government says that it has no plans to export other co-developed lethal weapons under the guidelines, and it would require Cabinet approval to do so. Japan has long prohibited most arms exports under the country’s pacific constitution, although it’s begun to take steps toward a change amid rising regional and global tensions. In 2014, it began to export some non-lethal military supplies, and last December it approved a change that would allow sales of 80 lethal weapons and components that it manufactures under licenses from other countries back to the licensors. Click here to read… [2]

China wins WTO dispute with Australia over steel products

China has won a nearly three-year-long dispute with Australia at the World Trade Organization over tariffs on steel products that began during a low point of bilateral relations between the countries, and Australia’s trade minister said March 27 his government accepted the ruling. Beijing took its complaint to the WTO in June 2021 over Australia’s extra duties on railway wheels, wind towers, and stainless steel sinks imported from China. Trade in these products was worth 62 million Australian dollars ($40.4 million) in 2022. On March 26, the WTO panel adjudicating the case in Geneva, Switzerland, found that Australia’s investigating authority, the Anti-Dumping Commission, had acted inconsistently with some articles of the anti-dumping agreement. Australia’s Trade Minister Don Farrell said in a statement March 27 that Canberra accepted the WTO’s ruling and supported a rules-based trading system. “Australia will engage with China and take steps to implement the panel’s findings,” Farrell said. “Australia remains committed to a fully functioning WTO dispute settlement system so that the rights and obligations of all WTO members can be enforced,” he added. Trade tariffs have been a hot topic between Beijing and Canberra in recent years after China imposed a raft of sanctions on Australian goods in 2020 during the most recent nadir in the bilateral relationship. Click here to read… [3]

China to challenge Biden administration electric vehicle plans at the WTO

China filed a World Trade Organization complaint against the U.S. on March 26 over what it says are discriminatory requirements for electric vehicle subsidies. The Chinese Commerce Ministry didn’t say what prompted the move. But under a new U.S. rule that took effect Jan. 1, electric car buyers are not eligible for tax credits of $3,750 to $7,500 if critical minerals or other battery components were made by Chinese, Russian, North Korean or Iranian companies. The credits are part of U.S. President Joe Biden’s signature climate legislation, named the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. A ministry statement didn’t mention the specific restriction. It said, though, that under the act and its implementing rules, the U.S. had formulated discriminatory subsidy policies for new energy vehicles in the name of responding to climate change. It said the U.S. move excluded Chinese products, distorted fair competition, and disrupted the global supply chain for new energy vehicles. Member countries of the Geneva-based WTO can file complaints about the trade practices of other members and seek relief through a dispute settlement process. The real-world impact of the case is uncertain. If the United States loses and appeals the ruling, China’s case likely would go nowhere. That is because the WTO’s Appellate Body, its supreme court, hasn’t functioned since late 2019, when the U.S. blocked the appointment of new judges to the panel. Click here to read… [4]

Japan to upgrade 16 ports, airports for defense, from Okinawa to Hokkaido

The Japanese government will designate 16 ports and airports nationwide for improvements so they can serve as emergency hubs in an increasingly uncertain security environment. The list includes Kitakyushu Airport in southwestern Japan and Okinawa's Naha Airport, as well as the ports of Kushiro in Hokkaido and Okinawa's Ishigaki, which lies about 230 kilometers east of Taiwan. Selected facilities will be equipped with longer runways or additional quays. During an emergency, the Japan Self-Defense Forces and Japan Coast Guard could use them as staging areas for personnel and supplies, or to evacuate residents. The expanded facilities could also be used to aid local tourism and disaster relief efforts. The list will be approved at an upcoming meeting of relevant cabinet ministers. The Japanese government outlined plans to upgrade airports and ports in a national security strategy published in 2022. Around 30 facilities were being considered as of August 2023. This number was narrowed down to 16 locations that received local approval. Of the 16 locations, only Naha Airport and Ishigaki Port are located near the Taiwan Strait, a potential flashpoint in East Asia. Several other airports and ports in Okinawa prefecture were also considered but were not selected amid local pushback against the buildup of defense bases there. Click here to read… [5]

EU Finds Compromise to Extend Tariff-Free Trade for Ukraine

European Union member states struck a hard-fought compromise March 27 to extend tariff-free trade for Ukraine for another year as farmers across the bloc have been protesting food imports from the war-torn nation. The agreement reached by the bloc’s ambassadors comes on the back of a provisional deal with the European Parliament last week that proposed reinstating tariffs on some food imports from Ukraine in the case of oversupply. The compromise deal would extend the reference period for the import volumes back to the second half of 2021, before Russia’s invasion, according to people familiar with the decision. The latest proposal doesn’t include potential restrictions on wheat, despite demands from France, Poland and Hungary. The extension of the so-called Autonomous Trade Measures, which still has to be approved by the European Parliament, would allow Kyiv to retain almost unfettered access to the EU market past the current expiration date of June 5. Member states generally supported an extension, but some pushed for the EU’s executive arm to provide safeguards on products such as corn, poultry, sugar and eggs if imports exceed previous volumes. Click here to read… [6]

Xi Says US CEOs Should Invest in China, Economy Hasn’t Peaked

President Xi Jinping met with a group of American business leaders in Beijing including Blackstone Inc.’s Stephen Schwarzman and Qualcomm Inc.’s Cristiano Amon as China is seeking to restore confidence in the economy and keep relations with the US on a stable footing. The Chinese leader on March 27 met with representatives from American business, strategic and academic communities. State broadcaster CCTV named some of the attendees and said they took a group photo before the event. The meeting lasted more than an hour and a half, with delegates raising questions and Xi answering them, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing a private event. Xi said he doesn’t see the need for Washington and Beijing to decouple, and that he wants American businesses to invest in China, the person said. Xi also acknowledged issues with the domestic economy, adding that officials can handle them and the Chinese economy hasn’t peaked, the person said, describing the talks as open and frank. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the details of the meeting. Click here to read… [7]

The Nigerian Conundrum for Companies: Stay or Go?

Some of the world’s most ubiquitous consumer companies are going to unusual lengths to try to succeed in Nigeria, enticed by the jaw-dropping potential of Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation. Unilever is making a toothpaste ingredient from a local root vegetable. Diageo has dropped Johnnie Walker for a nonalcoholic drink infused with vitamins. And Nestlé is working with local suppliers to source ingredients for its stock cubes. In contrast, other corporate giants are pulling out altogether, or outsourcing local distribution amid the country’s currency crisis and other longstanding challenges, including widespread poverty, corruption, and at times unpredictable actions by regulators. The different strategies reflect the promise and peril of Nigeria’s consumer market: With a median age of just over 18 years, Nigeria’s population is projected to nearly double to around 400 million people by 2050—surpassing the U.S. to become the country with the third-biggest population in the world after India and China. But Nigeria is also an extraordinarily difficult place to turn a consistent profit. The country is suffering from a plummeting local currency, soaring inflation, and crippling dollar shortages that have prevented companies from repatriating returns. Some, such as Walmart, have left altogether, and others like U.K.-based pharmaceutical giant GSK have outsourced their local businesses. Click here to read… [8]

The AI Industry Is Steaming Toward A Legal Iceberg

If your company uses AI to produce content, make decisions, or influence the lives of others, it’s likely you will be liable for whatever it does—especially when it makes a mistake. This also applies to big tech companies rolling out chat-based AIs to the public, including Google and Microsoft, as well as well-funded startups like Anthropic and OpenAI. “If in the coming years, we wind up using AI the way most commentators expect, by leaning on it to outsource a lot of our content and judgment calls, I don’t think companies will be able to escape some form of liability,” says Jane Bambauer, a law professor at the University of Florida who has written about these issues. The implications of this are momentous. Every company that uses generative AI could be responsible under laws that govern liability for harmful speech, and laws governing liability for defective products—since today’s AIs are both creators of speech and products. Some legal experts say this may create a flood of lawsuits for companies of all sizes. It is already clear that the consequences of artificial intelligence output may go well beyond a threat to companies’ reputations. Concerns about future liability also help explain why companies are manipulating their systems behind the scenes to avoid problematic outputs—for example, when Google’s Gemini came across as too “woke.” Click here to read… [9]

US ‘Kleptocapture’ Group Seeks Russia Sanction Evaders Worldwide

“It doesn’t matter if you’re in Kansas or in Latvia — if you violate American law, you risk facing American justice,” Matthew Axelrod, assistant secretary of Commerce export enforcement, said in the statement. The task force was created in March 2022, and along with the confiscation of Russian assets it has amassed since then — yachts, weapons and funds — the group has also worked to keep US-designed dual-use technology off the battlefield. At the outset of the war, members of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security approached 900 American companies with historic export relationships with Russia to inform them of the regulation changes. Since then, charges have been filed against people living in Belgium, Greece, Estonia and in the US. Russia is restricted from obtaining at least 50 high-priority items under the Commerce Department’s export controls. They cover most dual-use technologies or components of weapons systems, circuit boards and modules, radars and other types of equipment. The list is constantly being revised, according to an official who asked not to be identified elaborating on the program. Details of much of what tech was to be restricted was harvested from the battlefield, the official said. The earliest information came from Ukraine and non-governmental organizations that were able to locate model numbers of equipment — such as drones — from the field and pass those on to American officials who then worked to recreate the supply chain. Click here to read… [10]

Iraq’s overreliance on oil threatens economic, political strife

With an economy so reliant on oil, Iraq has long faced a tough balancing act between the short-term gains that can come from ramping up production and the long-term problems that can arise from overproduction. Last week, the Iraqi oil ministry announced that it was rectifying a swing too far in one direction when it announced that it would be curbing oil exports to 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) after having exceeded since January a quota imposed by the OPEC+ oil cartel. Production for March will be 130,000 bpd lower than in February, which will keep Iraq’s partners in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) content. But future tensions could arise if Iraq hits any unforeseen economic hurdles and falls back on overproduction. “The whole political economy is driven by oil,” an analyst, who asked to withhold their name due to the sensitivity of their work, told Al Jazeera. “The budget is set by the oil price. If the price drops, they produce more.” The Iraqi government needs to maximise the income it generates after parliament voted last year to pass a record-high budget of $153bn a year until 2025. It was presented as an investment in building Iraq’s future. The country’s vast oil reserves played a huge role in its economy rebounding, a little over six years after victory was declared over ISIL (ISIS), which had previously taken over vast swaths of territory. Click here to read… [11]

Chocolate prices to keep rising as West Africa’s cocoa crisis deepens

Long the world’s undisputed cocoa powerhouses, accounting for more than 60 percent of global supply, Ghana and its West African neighbour Ivory Coast are both facing catastrophic harvests this season. Expectations of shortages of cocoa beans – the raw material for chocolate – have seen New York cocoa futures more than double this year alone. They have hit new record highs almost daily in an unprecedented trend that shows little sign of abating. More than 20 farmers, experts and industry insiders told the Reuters news agency that a perfect storm of rampant illegal gold mining, climate change, sector mismanagement and rapidly spreading disease is to blame. In its most sobering assessment to date, according to data compiled since 2018 and obtained by Reuters, Ghana’s cocoa marketing board Cocobod, estimates that 590,000 hectares (1.45 million acres) of plantations have been infected with swollen shoot, a virus that will ultimately kill them. Ghana today has some 1.38 million hectares (3.41 million acres) of land under cocoa cultivation, a figure Cocobod said includes infected trees that are still producing cocoa. “Production is in long-term decline,” said Steve Wateridge, a cocoa expert with Tropical Research Services. “We wouldn’t get the lowest crop for 20 years in Ghana and lowest for eight years in Ivory Coast, if we hadn’t reached a tipping point.” Click here to read… [12]

Russia Delivers Oil to North Korea in Defiance of UN Sanctions

Russia has supplied oil directly to North Korea this year as both regimes are openly defying UN sanctions on sales of petroleum to Pyongyang in response to its nuclear weapons tests, satellite images shared exclusively with the Financial Times have shown. North Korea has been under UN Security Council sanctions since 2017, but Russia is said to have supplied and smuggled oil to the country since then. In August 2018, The Asian Institute for Policy Studies said while most of the sanction-bypassing oil trade with North Korea is thought to be originating from China, oil sales from Russia to Kim Jong-Un’s regime may be much larger than official figures suggest, as shell companies have been set up for illicit oil flows to Pyongyang. With a suspected oil-for-weapons deal with North Korea, Russia appears to have boosted its oil deliveries to Kim Jong-Un in exchange for munitions and other military equipment from North Korea to use in its war in Ukraine. Now the satellite images, which UK think-tank Royal United Services Institute has shared with FT, have shown that in March alone, at least five tankers of North Korea have traveled to load petroleum products from the Vostochny Port, the biggest port in Russia’s Far East. Click here to read… [13]

The U.S. and EU Are at Odds Over Fossil Fuel Funding

The United States and the European Union are at odds over how far a ban on fossil fuel loans and guarantees would extend and haven’t reached an agreement at the latest round of talks within the OECD organization of the most developed nations, sources with knowledge of the discussions have told the Financial Times. OECD members, which include the U.S., the EU, Canada, the UK, Japan, and South Korea, among others, have recently held a round of talks in Paris, without reaching any compromise about the extent to ban export credit agencies (ECAs) from extending or guaranteeing loans for oil, natural gas, and coal projects. More discussions are expected to be held in the summer and the autumn. The EU is proposing that ECAs only support projects that are aligned with a 1.5-degree Celsius scenario. The U.S., however, seems to be reluctant to draw that line. Stricter financing rules could affect the role of the U.S credit export agency, Exim, whose charter says that it should not discriminate against any industry. Most recently, the U.S. Export-Import Bank approved earlier this month a loan guarantee of $500 million for a Bahrain oil project despite opposition from Democrats noting the move would compromise the Biden Administration’s hard line on climate change. Click here to read… [14]

Russia and Iran Build Out Gas Alliance String of New Cooperation Agreements

Nineteen new cooperation agreements in the areas of oil gas, infrastructure, and finance have been signed in recent days between Iran and Russia, a senior source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry told OilPrice.com last week. These build upon the key enhanced cooperation themes laid out in the new 20-year comprehensive cooperation deal between the two countries to which Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, gave his official approval on 18 January. That deal, and the new agreements on top of it, in many ways, continue to run in parallel with key elements of the all-encompassing ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’. One area, particularly in focus, is increasing their cooperation and control in the global gas sector. Given that the two countries occupy the number one and number two positions in the world’s largest gas reserves table, respectively – Russia with around 37 trillion cubic metres (tcm) and Iran with about 32 tcm – they are in an ideal position to do this. In July 2022, Russia laid the foundations for this enhanced gas cooperation with Iran with a US$40 billion memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between its flagship gas giant, Gazprom, and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). Click here to read… [15]

US supply chains disrupted by Baltimore bridge collapse

The collapse of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, which has cut off ocean routes to the city’s major port, is expected to cause severe disruptions to local transport and logistics, producing ripple effects on global supply chains. The four-lane bridge collapsed on March 26 after being hit by the Singapore-registered container ship Dali, operated by Danish shipping giant Maersk. As a result of the accident, a large section of the 1.6-mile (2.6km) bridge collapsed into the Patapsco River, with multiple vehicles falling nearly 55 meters into the water. Built in the 1970s, the Francis Scott Key Bridge spans the Patapsco River and is the only passage connecting the US’ ninth-biggest foreign trading port to the ocean. The Port of Baltimore is the country’s busiest maritime terminal for exports of vehicles. According to Maryland Governor Wes Moore, no other port in the country brings in more vehicles than Baltimore, with up to 850,000 cars and light trucks going in and out of its terminals annually. Parts used in vehicle assembly also pass through the port or across the bridge. The major hub for East Coast shipping also handles significant volumes of coal. During the second quarter of 2023, the port’s facilities had the second-highest coal export capacities, data tracked by S&P Global shows. Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

Israel Cancels DC Trip After US Allows Gaza Cease-Fire Resolution at UN

The Israeli government called off a US trip by senior officials after the Biden administration decided not to veto a United Nations Security Council resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, a decision reflecting a shift of approach by Washington. Fourteen of 15 Security Council members voted in favor of the resolution, which was jointly proposed March 25 by the 10 elected members of the council. The US abstained, citing the measure’s failure to explicitly condemn Hamas for its Oct. 7 attack on Israel. The office of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had demanded a US veto of the resolution, and said it would “suspend” the visit by two of his top aides to Washington in response. March 25’s resolution marks the first time the Security Council has openly endorsed a cease-fire since Israel began its campaign to wipe out Hamas after the attack by the militant group, which is considered a terrorist organization by the US and the European Union. Until now, President Joe Biden’s administration had blocked multiple resolutions calling for a cease-fire in Gaza in the almost six months since the Israel-Hamas war began. The US has long been steadfast in championing Israel at the UN, voting against dozens of resolutions seen as going against its ally’s interests. Click here to read… [17]

Kremlin responds to Zelensky’s remarks on talks with Russia

Ukraine must take into account the fact that its borders have changed drastically since the beginning of its conflict with Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said, commenting on the prospects for peace talks. Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky suggested in an interview with CBS News that a return to 1991 borders was no longer a precondition for negotiations with Russia. However, he still insisted that Kiev must regain the territory it lost to Moscow in 2022. That year, four former Ukrainian territories – Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in a public referendum. They followed the Crimean peninsula, which did the same in 2014 after a Western-backed coup in Kiev. Following the 2022 referendums, Zelensky banned all talks with the current Russian leadership, focusing instead on a formula for ending the conflict that calls for a complete withdrawal of Moscow’s forces from all of the aforementioned territories. While Russia maintains it is open to talks with Kiev, it has dismissed that idea as “detached from reality.” Commenting on Zelensky’s remarks, Peskov told RIA Novosti on March 30 that “the geopolitical reality has changed dramatically since the beginning of the special military operation. The borders of both Ukraine and the Russian Federation have changed.” Click here to read… [18]

Chinese military’s security chief Wang Renhua elevated to top rank of general

President Xi Jinping has promoted the PLA’s security chief to the rank of general, a departure from recent practice that comes amid a purge of military leaders. Wang Renhua, head of the Central Military Commission’s Political and Legal Affairs Commission, was elevated to the highest rank for officers in active service on March 28. Wang, 62, is the third security chief of the People’s Liberation Army since a major overhaul of the military in 2015. He took up the job in late 2019 and was promoted to lieutenant general. He becomes the first general to serve in this position since the overhaul – his predecessor Song Dan was a lieutenant general when he was security chief, as was Li Xiaofeng before him. It comes as the ruling Communist Party is ramping up a campaign targeting corruption in the military. In December, nine PLA generals – including a number of senior members of the PLA Rocket Force responsible for China’s nuclear arsenal – were dismissed from the top legislature. Meanwhile, Li Shangfu – who has not been seen in public since August – was sacked as defence minister and state councillor in October, without explanation. Li was also removed from the CMC last month. Others include aerospace company chairman Feng Jiehong, who resigned from the legislature in February. Click here to read… [19]

China to woo belt and road partners at ‘digital silk road’ forum in April amid an increasingly divided cyberspace

China will host a forum next month to promote its digital-economy growth model and facilitate the development of digital infrastructure in partner nations of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing’s plan to grow global trade. The Digital Silk Road (DSR) Development Forum will open on April 16 in Xian, capital of western Shaanxi province, co-organised by the World Internet Conference (WIC) and the Shaanxi provincial government, WIC secretary general Ren Xianliang announced at a news conference in Beijing on March 26. China launched the DSR initiative in 2015 as the technology arm of BRI, with the aim of boosting digital connectivity. WIC, which started as an annual forum, was turned into an “international organisation” in 2022 to further Beijing’s views on how the internet should be managed and developed. The theme of the coming DSR forum will be mutual connectivity and common prosperity, with a focus on three areas: developing connectivity and narrowing the digital divide, cross-border e-commerce and rural digital infrastructure initiatives, according to Ren. China is trying to retain its role as an important global trade and investment partner in an increasingly fragmented cyberspace and trade landscape. As Beijing is at odds with Western countries in data and cyberspace management, the Chinese government is trying to sway other nations and companies to side with its vision. Click here to read… [20]

North Korea rules out any meetings with Japan

North Korea has no interest in dialogue with Japan, state media KCNA reported on March 29, citing foreign minister Choe Son Hui. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said he wants to hold talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un "without any preconditions" and is personally overseeing efforts to realize the first such leaders' summit in 20 years in an attempt to defuse decades of tensions. But North Korea has said it had no interest in a summit with Japan and would reject any talks, signaling no thaw in relations between the two countries. Choe also said Pyongyang has no intention to help with the issue of Japanese abductees, according to KCNA, adding North Korea will "respond sharply" to Japan's interference with its sovereignty. "I cannot understand why he persistently adheres to the issue that cannot be settled," Choe was quoted as saying by KCNA, referring to Kishida. North Korea admitted in 2002 to kidnapping 13 Japanese citizens decades earlier. Five abductees and their families later returned to Japan, saying the others had died. However, Tokyo believes 17 Japanese were abducted, and continues to investigate the fate of those who did not return, according to Japanese media. North Korea's ambassador to China, Ri Ryong Nam, also said there would be no meeting at any level with Japan, a separate KCNA report said. Click here to read… [21]

Russia Blocks UN Expert Panel on North Korea Nuclear Program

Russia vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution to extend a panel of experts that has reported on North Korea’s development of its nuclear arsenal for 15 years, underscoring the increasingly close ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. Reports by the panel of experts inform decisions on international sanctions established by the Security Council in a series of resolutions aimed at barring North Korea from developing into a nuclear-armed state. North Korea has repeatedly defied Security Council resolutions and continues to develop nuclear warheads and missiles that would carry them. Thirteen members of the Security Council voted in favor of the proposed extension, which was introduced by the US. China abstained, while Russia — which wields veto power — blocked its adoption. The move to bar a one-year extension of the panel, which will expire on April 30, comes at a time when the relationship between Russia and North Korea has reached new heights. The US and its close allies in Asia — Japan and South Korea — accuse North Korean leader Kim Jong Un of providing ammunition to help Russia with its assault on Ukraine in exchange for aid. Click here to read… [22]

Japan boosts defenses on remote islands near Taiwan amid China fears

Lying about 2,000 kilometers from Tokyo and just 110 km from Taiwan, the tiny isle of Yonaguni finds itself on the front line of Japan's plans to rapidly upgrade the defense capabilities of its remote southwestern islands. As tensions build around the Taiwan Strait, Japan is deploying new military units and expanding its bases on the islands. This month, a new unit consisting of about 50 personnel became operational at a Ground Self-Defense Force (SDF) base on Yonaguni. The troops are in charge of electronic combat, which involves intercepting enemy communications and jamming radar. The base on the tiny island with a population of about 1,700 was established in 2016. The Defense Ministry plans to deploy surface-to-air missiles there soon, and intends to acquire adjacent land to expand the base to 1.6 times its current size. Japan recently opened bases on two other remote islands near Taiwan -- Miyako in 2019 and Ishigaki in 2023. Both of them accommodate missile units. The background to these moves is "the most severe and complex postwar security environment," a ministry official told Nikkei Asia. Chinese ships persistently trespass into Japan's territorial waters, while five Chinese ballistic missiles landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone in August 2022. The official declined to comment on the specific purpose of the bases and what the units are there to protect, other than the islands. Click here to read… [23]

APT31: the Chinese hacking group behind global cyberespionage campaign

The United States and Britain filed charges and imposed sanctions on a company and individuals tied to a Chinese state-backed hacking group named APT31 that they allege engaged in a sweeping cyber espionage campaign. This group was allegedly run by China’s Ministry of State Security and targeted millions of people, mostly in the U.S. and Britain, for more than a decade including officials, lawmakers, activists, academics and journalists, and firms ranging from defense contractors to a U.S. smartphone maker. China has denied the charges. “We urge the U.S. and British sides to stop politicizing the issue of cybersecurity, stop slandering and smearing China and imposing unilateral sanctions, and stop cyber-attacks against China,” foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said. WHAT IS APT31? Advanced Persistent Threat Group 31 (APT31) is a collective of Chinese state-sponsored intelligence officers, contract hackers and attendant staff that engage in hacking activities and “malicious cyber operations” according to the U.S. Treasury department in a statement. APTs are a general term for cyber actors or groups, often state-backed that engage in malicious cyber activities. The group, also known as Zirconium, operated through a front company, Wuhan Xiaoruizhi Science and Technology Company (Wuhan XRZ), from at least 2010 until January 2024, according to a U.S. indictment filed in New York’s eastern district court on March 25. It is allegedly linked to China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) in the province of Hubei. Click here to read… [24]

Six killed in suicide bombing of Chinese interests in Pakistan

A suicide bomber rammed a vehicle into a convoy of Chinese engineers working on a dam project in northwest Pakistan on March 26, killing six people, police said, the third major attack on Chinese interests in the South Asian country in a week. The first two attacks hit an airbase and a strategic port in the southwest province of Balochistan where China is investing billions in infrastructure projects. The engineers were on their way from Islamabad to their camp at the dam construction site in Dasu in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Mohammad Ali Gandapur, the regional police chief, told Reuters. "Five Chinese nationals and their Pakistani driver were killed in the attack," Gandapur said. Dasu is the site of a major dam, and the area has been attacked in the past. A blast on a bus in 2013 killed 13 people, including nine Chinese nationals. Chinese engineers have been working on a number of projects Pakistan with Beijing investing over $65 billion in infrastructure projects as part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under its wider Belt and Road initiative. No one claimed responsibility for March 26's attack, nor was there a claim for the 2021 attack. Pakistan is home to twin insurgencies -- one by Islamists and the other by ethnic militants seeking secession. Click here to read… [25]

Karen border force tilts away from Myanmar military regime

The Border Guard Force (BGF), an armed group active in Kayin state, eastern Myanmar, has broken with the country's military in a move that may further diminish the military regime's influence along the border as Thailand begins delivery of humanitarian aid across it. The BGF, which has a sphere of influence along the border with Thailand, has rebranded itself the Karen National Army (KNA), claiming that it is no longer under the military's control and that it will remain neutral for the time being. The Karen National Union (KNU) and its military wing, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), are the main anti-military force in the area. The BGF originated from the KNU and is said to have at least 5,000 fighters. Thailand delivered the first batches of cross-border aid on March 25 for villagers and displaced persons affected by increased fighting. The humanitarian assistance had support from the military regime and the other countries in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Many twists and turns are expected ahead, including from the fallout of the BGF announcing its changed stance toward the military regime. Political analyst Than Soe Naing said the BGF "has severed its relationship with Myanmar's military, possibly to eliminate the risk of being attacked" by the KNLA and other armed groups. Fighting between the KNLA and the military has intensified lately. Click here to read… [26]

Philippines Revamps Maritime Security Offices Amid China Spat

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. reorganized the responsibilities of the central agency for maritime security policies as South China Sea tensions with Beijing escalate. Marcos directed the National Maritime Council to formulate policies and coordinate with government agencies on all issues affecting sea security and domain awareness, according to an order dated March 25 and released March 31. The council will be led by Marcos’ Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, with defense, energy and foreign affairs ministers as members. Others include the country’s national security adviser and solicitor general. The council is now mandated to meet quarterly from twice a year. Marcos also formed a presidential office for maritime concerns. The Philippines has been asserting its South China Sea rights, heightening a spat with China which claims almost the entire waterway despite a 2016 ruling favoring Manila. Marcos also recently vowed “deliberate” countermeasures against “dangerous attacks” by Chinese ships on Philippine vessels. Click here to read… [27]

ICJ orders Israel to take action to address famine in Gaza

Judges at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) have unanimously ordered Israel to take all the necessary and effective action to ensure basic food supplies arrive without delay to the Palestinian population in Gaza. The ICJ judges said in an order on March 28 that Palestinians in Gaza face worsening conditions of life and famine and starvation are spreading. “The court observes that Palestinians in Gaza are no longer facing only a risk of famine … but that famine is setting in,” the judges said. “At least 31 people, including 27 children, having already died of malnutrition and dehydration according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs,” they said. In its legally binding order, the court told Israel to take “all necessary and effective measures to ensure, without delay, in full co-operation with the United Nations, the unhindered provision at scale by all concerned of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance” including food, water, fuel and medical supplies. The ICJ, however, does not have a mechanism to enforce its rulings. The new measures were requested by South Africa as part of its continuing case that accuses Israel of carrying out genocide in Gaza. In January the ICJ, also known as the World Court, ordered Israel to refrain from any acts that could fall under the Genocide Convention and to ensure its troops commit no genocidal acts against Palestinians in Gaza. Click here to read… [28]

Israel wants multi-national security force in Gaza – Axios

Israel is considering establishing a multi-national military force in Gaza to take charge of local security, Axios reported on March 29, citing government sources. According to the report, the idea came from Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who voiced it during his visit to Washington earlier this week. The proposal envisages a contingent of troops from Arab countries being deployed to Gaza for a limited transition period. The force would be charged with escorting and helping facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries and generally maintaining law and order in the enclave. They are also expected to help establish an alternative governing body in Gaza, one of the sources said. Gallant reportedly asked Washington to support the initiative during his meetings with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan. Meanwhile, Israeli officials have also reportedly been discussing the proposal in recent weeks with representatives from at least three Arab countries, one of which is Egypt. “There is progress in promoting this initiative both in terms of the willingness of the Biden administration to discuss it and in terms of the openness of Arab countries to the idea,” one of the sources said. However, an unnamed Arab official from one of the countries reportedly involved in the talks said it is unlikely that foreign troops would be deployed to the region until the hostilities end. Click here to read… [29]

Palestinian Authority announces a new Cabinet amid Israeli assault on Gaza

The Palestinian Authority (PA) has announced the formation of a new Cabinet as it faces international pressure to reform. President Mahmoud Abbas, who has led the PA for nearly two decades, announced the new government in a presidential decree on March 28. Abbas tapped Mohammad Mustafa, a longtime adviser, to be prime minister earlier this month. He replaced Mohammed Shtayyeh, who, along with his government, resigned in February citing the need for change amid Israel’s brutal assault on Gaza and escalating violence in the occupied West Bank. Mustafa is a politically independent US-educated economist and has pledged to form a technocratic government and create an independent trust fund to help rebuild Gaza. Mustafa will also serve as foreign minister. Interior Minister Ziad Hab al-Rih is a member of Abbas’s secular Fatah movement and held the same portfolio in the previous government. The Interior Ministry oversees the security forces. The incoming minister for Jerusalem affairs, Ashraf al-Awar, registered to run as a Fatah candidate in elections in 2021 that were indefinitely delayed. At least five of the incoming 23 ministers are from Gaza, but it was not immediately clear if they are still in the besieged territory. The PA administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank and is dominated by Abbas’s Fatah party. Click here to read… [30]

DARPA moon train heralds heated race for lunar supremacy

The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and Northrop Grumman plan to build a lunar railway system, setting the stage for a new era of space military operations, exploration and economy. This month, Defense News reported that DARPA and the US defense contractor are collaborating to create a moon-based railway system to facilitate the transportation of humans, resources and supplies for commercial purposes and promote a space economy for the US and its international partners. Defense News notes that Northrop Grumman’s work will focus on identifying the interfaces, resources and funding needed to build such a network as well as the technological and logistical risks. The report says the private company will also propose lunar rail system prototypes to explore how the capability could be built and operated. The effort is part of DARPA’s Lunar Architecture Capability Study (LunA-10), which aims to identify the foundational technologies needed to develop future infrastructure on the moon. Last December, Northrop Grumman was one of 14 companies DARPA selected to explore concepts to support a future lunar economy by 2035. The studies come as the US, its international partners and commercial firms envision future activity around the moon. Defense News says that the US Space Force’s interest in the military utility of operations around the moon is also growing, with plans to create a Space Futures Command to validate forward-looking concepts and emerging missions. Click here to read… [31]

Health

Benikoji recalls follow concerns in Europe over supplement

While benikoji has been widely used in food and other products, recent deaths and health problems associated with the malted rice ingredient have thrust it into the spotlight as a potential health hazard. Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co.’s “Benikoji coleste-help” dietary supplement has been reported to have caused a series of health concerns, prompting recalls of the company's products. There have been reports of health problems overseas in the past that are suspected to have been caused by consumption of supplements made from benikoji. How is benikoji made? Benikoji is made by mixing benikoji bacteria with steamed rice and fermenting the mixture. The fermentation produces a red pigment. Traditionally, benikoji has been used to make Chinese sake and Okinawan fermented tofu. In recent years, it has been used as an ingredient in health foods because it is believed to lower LDL cholesterol, also known as bad cholesterol, in the blood. According to the Food Safety Commission, there have been reports of health problems in Europe suspected to have been caused by consumption of supplements derived from rice fermented with benikoji. However, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical said it used a strain of bacteria that does not produce citrinin, and the chemical was not detected in the analysis of all lots of raw materials conducted in February this year. Click here to read… [32]

Measles cases spike, already reaching 70% of those in 2023

The health ministry in Japan announced on March 26 that the number of measles cases has reached 20 this year, already at 70 percent of the total number of cases reported in 2023. Of these, 14 cases are suspected to be linked to a male patient who returned from the United Arab Emirates in late February. The ministry is urging parents to ensure their children receive vaccinations against the highly contagious disease. Due to the rise in measles cases, demand for the vaccination is increasing. The ministry has requested that medical suppliers prioritize giving vaccines to children. After a period of fever and coughing, measles patients develop high fevers and rashes. In about one out of every 1,000 cases, measles can lead to encephalitis, which can be fatal. Measles is spread through the air, and handwashing and masking are not sufficient to prevent infections. Vaccination is the most effective way to prevent measles. Two doses of the vaccine can provide immunity to over 95 percent of people. In Japan, all children are offered two free measles vaccinations: the first when they are 1 year old, and the second at age 5 or 6. Click here to read… [33]