Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (11-17 March 2024)

Economic

U.S. and China Extend Landmark Bilateral Deal, Very Quietly

When a landmark science and technology agreement between the U.S. and China reached its expiration in late February without an extension, it plunged the academic community in both countries into uncertainty. Neither country confirmed an extension for nine days. Had it lapsed? Not really, it turns out. But the extension was made so quietly as to be imperceptible, without an official statement published online. And for a second time in a row, it would only keep the agreement alive for another six months while Washington and Beijing continue negotiations. The U.S.-China Science and Technology Agreement was the first bilateral deal signed after Washington formally recognized the Communist-ruled People’s Republic of China in 1979. At the time, China was a scientific laggard and the U.S. saw the pact as a way to influence China’s behavior and developmental trajectory. Nowadays, each country is simultaneously the other’s biggest research partner and its biggest rival, as the world’s two largest economies compete for global leadership in areas such as quantum computing, biotechnology and nanoscience. Over the decades, the agreement was renewed as a matter of course, for five-year extensions, even as more U.S. institutions grew increasingly wary of collaborating with Chinese counterparts. Both proponents and critics say the agreement hasn’t kept up with changes in bilateral ties and the two countries’ respective strategic priorities. Click here to read… [2]

In Japan, rate rises herald a new era for financial markets

Barely weeks after Japanese stocks broke three-decade highs, the country’s financial markets are hurtling toward another phenomenon not seen for the best part of a generation: rising interest rates. Bankers are attending remedial classes on what to do when rates move and trading rooms are setting up for moribund derivative markets to spring to life -- as they have begun to do. Their pricing implies a matter of months at the most before the last bastion of a decades-long monetary policy experiment with negative short-term rates falls. An exit by the Bank of Japan is expected by June, with an even chance that rates will rise to zero next week. Such a move, up 10 basis points, would be small, leaving traders to focus on broader signals: whether any change is implemented immediately, or later, and whether the BOJ winds down its enormous buying program for assets ranging from Japanese government bonds to listed equity funds. The symbolism is also heavy as Japan seeks to leave behind “lost” years marked by deflation and reawaken the fourth-biggest economy in the world as a destination for investment -- a change already rippling through corporate Japan and global markets. “I personally think this is going to be the beginning of a new era,” said Keita Matsumoto, head of financial institutions sales and solutions at Citigroup Global Markets Japan. Click here to read… [3]

Cambodia to divert Mekong trade via China-built canal, vexing Vietnam

The Funan Techo canal would directly connect Phnom Penh with Cambodian ports on the Gulf of Thailand, bypassing Vietnam's traditional hold on the mouth of one of Asia's biggest waterways. Vietnam has formally raised alarm over the canal's potential effect on the Mekong Delta in the absence of a publicly available environmental impact assessment for the canal -- part of China's ambitious yet financially stretched investments in infrastructure projects across Asia. While Chinese state-owned developers have walked back promises to fund large airport projects in Cambodia in recent years, Manet appealed in February for China to keep investing in major infrastructure like the canal. The canal controversy also reflects deeper geopolitical tensions as Cambodia attempts to shift away from dependence on Vietnamese-controlled trade routes, undermining Hanoi's regional leverage while further elevating Beijing's influence in the southern Mekong. Cambodia's economic interests remain tightly intertwined with Vietnam, which considers the Kingdom a "special strategic partner." Vietnam is Cambodia's second-largest trade partner behind China, and trade between the two neighbors exceeded $6 billion in 2023. Yet the canal could become a fault-line between the two countries amid increasing regional polarity. Chhengpor Aun, a research fellow at the Cambodian think tank Future Forum, described the canal as the fulfillment of a "national imagination" by addressing Cambodia's deep psychic wound from the perceived loss of the entire Mekong Delta when the area was formally merged with Vietnam under French colonial rule in 1949. Click here to read… [4]

China is spending billions on a national computing network. Its data chief says why

China needs a fully integrated national computing network if it is to forge ahead in the global race for high technology and retool its economy for innovation, according to the head of the country’s new data regulator. In an article in Communist Party journal Qiushi on the weekend, National Data Administration (NDA) chief Liu Liehong said computing power had become “the main arena of scientific and technological competition” among major countries rushing to take the lead in the industries of the future. “Computing power has become the core productive force for a country,” Liu said. “Frontier technologies and future industries represented by new materials, biopharmaceuticals, gene technology, and deep sea, air and space exploration, have created an unprecedented demand for computing power infrastructure. “A unified computing system would optimise resources, lower costs and help the country to achieve breakthroughs in cutting-edge tech such as quantum information.” Beijing has put computing power front and centre in its efforts to narrow the gap with the United States in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence. To that end, it set up the NDA in October last year as both a promoter of the digital economy and a regulator of the booming data management sector. Click here to read… [5]

As Washington cracks down on Chinese businesses, their lobbyists come under fire

In early February, a list made the rounds among Capitol Hill staffers. It named several Chinese companies and their Washington lobbyists, as well as the federal “entity lists” – which prohibit those entities from doing business in the US – that included those companies. Titled “Buying Influence in Washington: The Top Firms Lobbying for China”, the list – it was unclear who had compiled it – highlights some big players in the Washington lobbying scene. These included the Vogel Group and Avoq, retained by Chinese drone maker DJI; Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld and Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, retained by lidar maker Hesai Tech; and Steptoe & Johnson, retained by biotech firm BGI Group. Also on the list were Chinese companies not currently named on any federal blacklists, including electronics maker Xiaomi, tech firm Quectel and electric vehicle manufacturer BYD. The list, which the South China Morning Post has seen, coincided with reports that lawmakers are considering a ban on members of Congress from meeting lobbyists who represent Chinese companies with alleged links to China’s military – even if the meeting being sought is for an American client. Turbulent US-China relations in recent years have led to growing concerns in Washington about China’s influence on policymaking. Click here to read… [6]

Mnuchin says he is putting together group to buy TikTok

Steven Mnuchin is forming a group to buy TikTok from Chinese parent ByteDance, the former U.S. Treasury secretary said March 14, as the popular short-video app comes under increasing pressure from lawmakers in Washington. "It should be sold. It should be controlled by a U.S. business," Mnuchin said in an interview on CNBC. "It's a great company. It would be terrible if it would shut down lots of users." The former Treasury head under then-President Donald Trump did not say who else would be in this group or provide financial estimates or details on the source of the money. "There's no way that the Chinese would ever let a U.S. company own something like this in China," he said. Mnuchin, who now leads private equity firm Liberty Strategic Capital, gave no estimate of how much it would cost to buy the U.S. arm of the app. A forced sale would reduce TikTok's value, but any deal would still be in the tens of billions of dollars. Mnuchin's comments come one day after the U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation that would ban TikTok from operating in the country unless ByteDance sells the app's American operation within six months. The bill now moves to the Senate, where its fate remains uncertain, but President Joe Biden has said he would sign the bill if it were approved by Congress. Click here to read… [7]

Bangladesh Launches Largest Offshore Exploration Drive in a Decade

This month, the Bangladesh government invited international bids for oil and gas exploration in 24 blocks in the Bay of Bengal. This is aimed at increasing the country’s oil output. For several years, Bangladesh has been plagued with energy shortages, as its gas reserves have been depleting. Further, the rise in energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russian energy have hit the low-income country hard. It is the first round of bidding since 2012 to offer offshore acreage, with 15 deep-water and nine shallow-water blocks available. The bidding round was approved following the provision of a 2D multi-client seismic data survey from the energy data firm TGS. The company delivered data from over 75,000 km2 across all 24 blocks on offer in April 2023. David Hajovsky, the Executive Vice President of Multi-Client at TGS, stated: “The Bengal Fan is one of the world's largest deep-water fans with significant evidence of working petroleum systems. It is widely considered one of the most extensively underexplored frontier regions. With limited existing offshore Bangladesh data, this new high-quality seismic, combined with the revised Production Sharing Contract 2023 (PSC), is a critical component for companies to evaluate and submit competitive bids for the blocks on offer in the Bid Round.” Click here to read… [8]

U.S. Launches Economic Initiative to Boost Trade in Central Asia

With Russia embroiled in Ukraine, and China’s economy cooling, the United States is pressing ahead with an initiative to bolster its influence in Central Asia. The catalyst is an economic mechanism fostering connectivity among states in the region and encouraging stronger public-private connections to enhance trade. This new-look American initiative, with its clear emphasis on commerce, marks a departure from past US efforts to promote rule of law in the region. It embraces bottom-up tactics, rather than top-down methods that were the hallmark of US diplomacy in the region following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Success of what is being called the B5+1 process is far from a sure thing. The new-look vision rests on the ability of US diplomacy to encourage local entrepreneurs and corporate leaders to work more effectively and efficiently with governmental officials in forging well-regulated economic systems. The private sector is expected to drive the process. Success is also contingent on a greater level of cooperation among the five Central States to break down trade barriers. The initiative applies a formula that has worked in the past, in which widening economic opportunity spreads prosperity that, in turn, fosters buy-in for a law-governed economic system. If the B5+1 process shows results, the expectation is that broader US investment will follow. Click here to read… [9]

Can Tech Keep Up With AI's Appetite for Energy?

In reality, the digital age depends on lots and lots of physical infrastructure, from massive cables running alone the ocean floor to warehouse upon warehouse of computer servers. And all that infrastructure requires a massive amount of energy. And as the demand for digital services increases rapidly, so too does the sector’s already prodigious energy consumption and associated carbon footprint. This puts the tech industry in a bind. The “hyperscalers” of big tech have made some of the biggest decarbonization commitments of any business in any sector, but they’re struggling to get their consumption under control and the feasibility of those pledges is seriously under threat. “Currently, the entire IT industry is responsible for around 2 percent of global CO2 emissions,” Science Alert reported last year. And that number is growing rapidly, and will skyrocket in coming years. Already, according to figures from the International Energy Agency, data centers and transmission networks are jointly emitting as much carbon dioxide every year as the entire nation of Brazil. AI in particular is a massive energy suck, and its recent rapid expansion has really thrown a wrench into the tech sector’s decarbonization plans. Already, AI alone consumes as much energy as some entire developed countries and nearly as much as Bitcoin. Click here to read… [10]

South China Sea: energy exploration should not involve countries outside the region, Beijing says

Manila’s plans to explore for energy in the South China Sea must not harm China’s interests or involve countries outside the region, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said on March 11. Speaking at a regular press briefing in Beijing, Wang Wenbin added that territorial disputes in the South China Sea should be “negotiated and properly handled directly” between China and rival claimants. “Regarding the disputes relating to the sea, including resource exploitation, countries concerned must not undermine China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea by exploiting resources, and they must not invite extraterritorial countries to intervene in [such disputes],” Wang said. Wang was responding to remarks by Philippine ambassador to the United States Jose Manuel Romualdez, who said in Manila that the Philippines and its allies were “moving in a calculated” plan to drill for oil and gas in the South China Sea. “When the time comes that we are going to start exploring it, we’ll have the options to be able to see how we can secure the expedition,” Romualdez said. “We’re working closely with our allies, not only the US but also Japan and Australia.” Those options include inviting US companies to invest in the resource development, according to Romualdez. Click here to read… [11]

U.S. unions ask Biden administration to probe Chinese shipbuilding

Five U.S. labor unions on March 12 filed a petition with the office of U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai requesting a probe into China's alleged unfair policies and practices in the maritime logistics and shipbuilding sectors, the USTR office said. The petition was filed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a statute aimed at combating trade partners' unfair practices. Trade practices are only one component of strains in U.S.-China relations in recent years. Other contentious issues include Taiwan, spying allegations, human rights and the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. "We have seen the PRC (China) create dependencies and vulnerabilities in multiple sectors, like steel, aluminum, solar, batteries, and critical minerals, harming American workers and businesses and creating real risks for our supply chains," the USTR office said in a statement, adding it will review the petition. "China's drive to dominate the global shipbuilding, maritime, and logistics sector is built on non-market policies that are far more aggressive and interventionist than any other country," the unions said in their petition. The five petitioner unions included the United Steelworkers. The petition filed on March 12, which was first reported by the Financial Times, urged the administration of President Joe Biden to impose port fees on Chinese-built vessels and with it create a fund to revitalize U.S. shipbuilding. Click here to read… [12]

US Warns EU That Reviving Steel Case Would Sink WTO Reform

The US told the European Union that if it reopened a case at the World Trade Organization against Washington over a Trump-era steel and aluminum dispute then it would risk sinking the bloc’s attempt to fix a pillar of multilateral trade cooperation. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai told her Group of Seven counterparts last month that if the EU filed the complaint, it would have consequences on efforts to reform and revive the WTO’s dispute settlement system, according to European diplomats and officials familiar with the discussion. She added that the US would calibrate its cooperation with the EU on WTO reform based on the bloc’s actions, they said. The appellate body — the preeminent forum for settling worldwide trade disagreements — is currently hamstrung due to American maneuvering. Restoring a fully functional dispute settlement system has been a key priority for the Europeans. Tai’s comments risk reinforcing skepticism in Europe that the transatlantic trade relationship has improved since President Joe Biden came to office. Trump sparked a trade war with Europe when he came to office, leading to tariffs on billions of dollars of exports. But Biden has since opted to not remove some of Trump’s coercive measures, irking his European allies. Spokespeople from the USTR and from the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, declined to comment. Click here to read… [13]

UK Public Services in ‘Unknown Territory,’ Budget Watchdog Warns

A lack of detailed departmental spending plans threatens to plunge Britain’s creaking public services into “unknown territory” and put the public finances at risk, according to the head of the government’s independent forecasting body. Richard Hughes, chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, told lawmakers on the Treasury Committee that government departments like transport and justice are unable to make plans because their budgets will not be known until after the election. Hughes was being questioned about his comments earlier this year that current spending plans are not worthy of being called a work of fiction because they have no content. His words inflamed several Conservative MPs including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who rebuked Hughes and said he was wrong. James Bowler, the Treasury’s top civil servant, also found fault in “the excellent head of the OBR,” telling the Treasury committee in January that the lack of detail on public spending was “no different to how it has been ever since the inception of the OBR” in 2010. In an exchange that may escalate tensions with the Treasury, Hughes took issue with Bowler’s statement and claimed that past governments have topped up spending by as much as £30 billion ($38.3 billion) at the point that they set out specific departmental budget plans. Click here to read… [14]

EU to start sending Russian money to Ukraine this summer – FT

The European Commission is pressing ahead with its plan to give Kiev up to €3 billion ($3.2 billion) from profits generated by frozen Russian assets amid waning financial support from the US, the Financial Times reported on March 12. Brussels is fast-tracking the decision to seize the interest earned from the assets held at clearinghouse Euroclear, starting from February onwards, the article stated. A first tranche of money could be sent to Kiev as early as July if Brussels can secure the approval of all bloc members, the outlet said, citing EU officials. The proposal is reportedly expected before a summit of EU leaders next week. The West has frozen roughly $300 billion in holdings belonging to the Russian central bank since the start of the Ukraine conflict two years ago. Brussels-based clearing house Euroclear holds around €191 billion ($205 billion) of them and has accrued nearly €4.4 billion in interest over the past year. According to the report, Brussels would disburse between €2 and €3 billion in revenue generated by frozen assets this year, depending on interest rates. EU officials estimate that overall profits derived from Russian funds held by Euroclear could reach €20 billion by 2027, the FT said. The issue of tapping Russian assets has grown in importance since a $60 billion American aid package to Ukraine was blocked by the Republican-led US Congress, prompting Kiev to look for alternative donors to fund its war effort. Click here to read… [15]

Asian electronics giants ploughing money into Russian advertising – Kommersant

Several Asian electronics giants that curtailed promotion or suspended official supplies of goods to Russia in the wake of Ukraine conflict-related sanctions resumed advertising in the country in 2023, according to a Kommersant report on March 11. The newspaper cited data by the analytics agency TelecomDaily showing that advertising activity by Asian electronics majors in the Russian market returned to the level of 2021 or even exceeded it. Among the brands in question, the report named Honor, Xiaomi, Samsung, Acer, and others. New Chinese smartphone brands Tecno and Infinix also boosted their marketing activity by 60% in 2023, data shows. A source at one of the companies confirmed the trend to Kommersant, noting that electronics companies were “mainly focused on collaboration with bloggers.” The source highlighted that last year investments in advertising grew from zero in 2022, and exceeded the figures for 2021 by 2-5%. The Kommersant report highlighted that, due to sanctions risks, Asian companies have been transferring their advertising budgets and rights to manage brand promotion entirely to third parties, mainly marketplaces, retailers and distributors. A Kommersant source from a smartphone vendor confirmed that all the advertising activity for devices that are not officially supplied to the Russian market is now carried out by retailers and marketplaces. Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

U.S. cuts key submarine order for 2025 amid shipbuilding jam

The U.S. Department of Defense will order just one Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine in fiscal 2025, a drop from the two-per-year pace of recent years. The decrease, announced March 11, reflects U.S. shipbuilding bottlenecks. The two private shipyards that produce the Virginia class -- General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls Industries -- face mounting backlogs due to limited capacity and personnel shortages. The decision also highlights the Pentagon's dilemma of having to counter a massive defense buildup by China while under fiscal limitations. The Pentagon's total fiscal 2025 budget request was $849.8 billion, a 0.9% increase on the year. China's annual defense budget for 2024, revealed earlier this month, grew by 7.2% to 1.67 trillion yuan ($233 billion). The growth of the American defense budget was constrained by the Fiscal Responsibility Act, a debt-limit deal struck in mid-2023 that capped the budget to a 1% increase from the fiscal 2024 request. Taking inflation into account, the Pentagon, in effect, had to cut roughly $10 billion from last year's plan. The costly Virginia class was among the casualties; funding for the program came in at $8.2 billion, a 24% drop from fiscal 2024. The delay of the Virginia class exposes the strains of the AUKUS defense pact as well. Click here to read… [17]

China cuts arms imports to rely more on its own weapons tech but Russia still biggest overseas supplier: SIPRI

China nearly halved its arms imports over the past five years as it replaced foreign weapons with its own technology but Russia still accounted for the bulk of Beijing’s overseas purchases, according to a Swedish think tank. In a report released on March 11, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said China’s arms imports in 2019-23 fell by 44 per cent from the previous five years, putting it 10th on the list of the world’s biggest buyers of foreign weapons. Russia supplied 77 per cent of China’s purchases, including aircraft engines and helicopter systems, followed by France with 13 per cent. Despite the war with Russia, Ukraine remained the third-largest source of China’s imports with 8.2 per cent, supplying gas turbines for destroyers and engines for China’s L-15 trainer/light combat aircraft. SIPRI did not say how China’s imports from Russia and Ukraine changed after the Russian invasion in early 2022. But previous reports from the institute said Ukraine accounted for 5.9 per cent of China’s total arms imports in 2017-21. Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme, said Russia could not replace Ukraine as a supplier for some of China’s equipment. “When the ships and aircraft were designed and production started, Russia did not produce these types of gas turbines or jet engines – Russia actually depended also on Ukraine for these same engines for their own ships and trainer/combat aircraft,” Wezeman said. Click here to read… [18]

South Korea to host third democracy summit with digital threats on agenda

South Korea is poised to host the third Summit for Democracy next week, taking up a U.S.-led initiative aimed at discussing ways to stop democratic backsliding and erosion of rights and freedoms worldwide. Seoul has released few details about who will be participating, but U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will lead a delegation. “The summit also takes place this year at a critical moment during what has been called the year of elections,” Kelly Razzouk, National Security Council senior director for democracy and human rights, told a briefing in Washington on March 13. “We are at an inflection point,” said Razzouk. Participants are expected to highlight what they see as digital threats to democracy, including misinformation, artificial intelligence, and deep fakes. “At this event, the government will share with the world the use of new technologies to benefit humans without hampering democracy and seek cooperation to that end,” Kweon Ki-hwan, South Korea’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, wrote in an essay on March 14. The U.S. will convene a meeting on the misuse of commercial spyware, Razzouk said. “The misuse of commercial spyware has a monumental impact on the ability of brave individuals around the world to express themselves and their opinions,” she said. South Korea, which co-hosted the last summit with four other nations, also intends to seek youth participation and announce projects to support the challenges of the younger generation, Kweon said. Click here to read… [19]

Japan, U.S. and Philippines to discuss stronger military ties

Arrangements are being made for the leaders of Japan, the United States and the Philippines to meet next month to examine ways to bolster their military ties. The meeting will be held in line with the scheduled April 10 summit between Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and U.S. President Joe Biden, according to several government sources. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is expected to join his two counterparts, the sources said. Like Japan, the Philippines has a territorial dispute with China over islands in the South China Sea. Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa will fly to the Philippines on March 20 to meet with her counterparts and prepare for the summit. The three foreign ministers will discuss ways to strengthen cooperation in the wake of increasing collisions in the South China Sea between ships from the Philippines and China. Marcos has emphasized stronger ties with the United States since taking office in 2022, and Japan and the United States have separately taken steps to bolster bilateral ties. When Kishida met with Marcos in November in the Philippines, they agreed to upgrade their bilateral relationship to make Manila a “quasi-ally.” They agreed to work toward signing a Reciprocal Access Agreement that would make it easier for members of the Self-Defense Forces and the Philippine military to engage in joint training exercises by simplifying procedures to obtain visas and bring weapons and ammunition into each other’s countries. Click here to read… [20]

Philippines: China's maritime proposals contrary to our interests

The Philippine foreign ministry said on March 12 it had received several maritime-related proposals from China, but added they could not be considered because they were against the Southeast Asian country's national interests. Tensions between Manila and Beijing over disputed waters in the South China Sea have heightened in recent months. Last week, the Philippines accused the China Coast Guard of firing water cannons at one of its vessels involved in a resupply mission in the area, injuring four navy personnel. Among the latest proposals from China was one where it "insisted on actions that would be deemed as acquiescence or recognition of China's control and administration over the Ayungin Shoal" and the Philippines could not consider such a proposal "without violating the constitution or international law," the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said in a statement. Ayungin is the Philippines' name for Second Thomas Shoal, which China calls Renai reef. The DFA was responding to a Manila Times news article quoting an unidentified "ranking Chinese official" as saying that Beijing's proposals to normalize the situation in the South China Sea were "met with inaction" by the Philippine government. "From the outset, DFA wishes to underscore that the Philippines is approaching these confidential negotiations with utmost sincerity and good faith," it said. "We were, therefore, surprised by China's disclosure of sensitive details of our bilateral discussions." Click here to read… [21]

Tokyo’s controversial Yasukuni Shrine picks ex-admiral as chief priest

Japan’s Yasukuni Shrine has picked a former military commander as its chief priest in a move that could stir controversy over a site that other Asian nations see as a symbol of Japan’s wartime aggression. Umio Otsuka, 63, a former Maritime Self Defense Force (SDF) commander and a one-time ambassador to Djibouti, confirmed his appointment, which marks the first time since 1978 for an ex-military official to assume the post. The last retired military officer appointed as chief priest, Nagayoshi Matsudaira, enshrined 14 prominent convicted war criminals alongside the 2.5 million war dead honored at the shrine, including World War II-era prime minister Hideki Tojo“I feel very honored that the next stage of my life will be to serve this shrine for peace, where the spirits of those who gave their precious lives for the country are commemorated and honored,” Otsuka told Reuters. A spokesperson for Yasukuni Shrine, whose name means “peaceful country” in Japanese, declined to confirm his appointment. Visits to the shrine by senior Japanese political figures have drawn criticism from countries such as South Korea, which was under Tokyo’s colonial rule for 35 years, and China, which Japan invaded. Conservatives assert that Yasukuni, which was established in 1869 as Japan emerged from more than 250 years of isolation, is meant to commemorate all the nation’s war dead and is not a shrine dedicated to those blamed for waging war on Japan’s neighbors. Click here to read… [22]

EU to bolster Egypt ties with 7.4 billion euros in funding

European leaders are expected to announce a 7.4 billion euro ($8.06 billion) funding package and an upgraded relationship with Egypt in Cairo on March 17, part of a push to stem migrant flows across the Mediterranean that has been criticised by rights groups. The agreement, which lifts the European Union's relationship with Egypt to a "strategic partnership," is designed to boost cooperation in areas including renewable energy, trade, and security while delivering grants, loans and other funding over the next three years to support Egypt's faltering economy. That funding is expected to include 5 billion euros in macro-financial assistance, 1.8 billion euros of investments and 600 million euros in grants, a senior EU commission official said. The macro-financial assistance includes 1 billion euros in emergency funding to be delivered this year. The remaining 4 billion euros will be subject to approval by the European parliament, the official said. Most of the money is newly allocated and the funding was drawn up in close cooperation with the IMF, the official added. European governments have long been worried about the risk of instability in Egypt, a country of 106 million people that has been struggling to raise foreign currency and where economic adversity has pushed increasing numbers to migrate in recent years. Click here to read… [23]

Nepal political shakeup thrusts Kathmandu into India-China rivalry

A shock political shakeup in Nepal is set to push the Himalayan nation closer to Beijing, aggravating a bitter China-India rivalry as the giant neighbors jockey for influence across South Asia. Nepal's prime minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, popularly known as Prachanda, surprised Indian observers last week when he ditched his Delhi-leaning coalition partner for staunch China ally K.P. Sharma Oli, head of the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist). The new power-sharing agreement came just weeks after Nepal's foreign minister -- who is also a leader in the dumped coalition partner Nepali Congress -- met with his Indian counterpart in Delhi to discuss strengthening bilateral ties. The joining of Nepal's two-biggest communist parties also follows India's retreat from the Maldives where a new pro-China leader pledged to end his island nation's "India first" policy. "There is a strong dislike among some political parties about India. Though it is a very important neighbor, many political parties don't trust it," said Yubaraj Ghimire, a Kathmandu-based political commentator. "This often leads them to lean towards China as a counterbalance to India's influence." Delhi has regained much of the diplomatic ground in Sri Lanka that it had lost to China and holds a stronger position in Bhutan and Bangladesh, where it has close ties with recently re-elected Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, despite opposition calls to reduce India's influence. Click here to read… [24]

Palestinian President Abbas appoints Mohammed Mustafa as prime minister

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has appointed his longtime economic adviser Mohammed Mustafa to be the next prime minister in the face of US pressure to reform the Palestinian Authority as part of Washington’s post-war vision for Gaza. Mustafa, a US-educated economist and political independent, now faces the task of forming a new government for the PA, which has limited powers in parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. In a statement announcing the appointment on March 14, Abbas asked Mustafa to put together plans to re-unify administration in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, lead reforms in the government, security services and economy and fight corruption. Mustafa replaces former Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh who, along with his government, resigned in February citing the need for change amid Israel’s war on Gaza and escalating violence in the occupied West Bank. The internationally recognised PA, which is dominated by the Fatah party, exercises limited self-rule in the occupied West Bank, but lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007. Aims to reunify governance of Palestinian lands after face major obstacles, including strong opposition from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and a devastating war that is still grinding on with no end in sight. Fatah and Hamas are expected to meet in Moscow this week for talks. Click here to read… [25]

China, Iran and Russia stage joint naval drills in Gulf of Oman

The navies of China, Iran and Russia have begun joint drills in the Gulf of Oman, their fifth common military exercise in recent years. The war games starting on March 12 coincide with heightened tensions in the region as Israel’s war on Gaza rages for a sixth month and Yemen’s Houthi rebels have launched attacks on ships in the Red Sea in response. Russia’s defence ministry said the exercises that will run through March 15 and involve warships and aviation would focus on the protection of “maritime economic activity”. State media reported that a grouping of ships from Russia’s Pacific Fleet, led by the Varyag cruiser, arrived at the Iranian port of Chabahar on Monday ahead of the drills that will see representatives from the navies of Azerbaijan, India, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan and South Africa act as observers. For its part, China’s defence ministry said the drills – called “Maritime Security Belt – 2024” – were aimed at “jointly maintaining regional maritime security”. “China will send … guided-missile destroyer Urumqi, guided-missile frigate Linyi and comprehensive supply ship Dongpinghu to participate in the exercise,” the ministry added in a statement, without providing further details. Iranian state media, meanwhile, reported that the exercise’s goal is to strengthen “the security of international maritime trade, combating piracy and maritime terrorism”, among others. Click here to read… [26]

Niger Junta Ends Military Deal With US, Asks Troops to Leave

Niger’s ruling junta ended an agreement that let US military staff operate from a $110 million drone base, paving the way for Russian troops to move in. The military leaders revoked the deal between Niger and the US with “immediate effect,” and is seen as ending the US presence in the sub-Saharan country. The decision is a setback to Washington, which had been forced to suspend operations at Air Base 201 in Agadez following a July coup and was pushing to keep its most strategic military asset in the region afloat. “The American presence on Niger’s territory is illegal and violates all constitutional rules,” Amadou Abdramane, spokesman for the National Council for the Protection of the Homeland — or CNSP according to its French acronym, said in a statement on state TV and Facebook on March 16. The US has about 1,000 troops in Niger as part of an effort to battle Islamist insurgency in West Africa’s Sahel region and Libya. The move came after senior US officials accused the junta of secretly exploring a deal to allow Iran access to its uranium mines, the Wall Street Journal reported on March 17, citing officials from Niger and the US it didn’t identify. The concerns were raised by Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee, who was leading a three-day visit by a US delegation to Niamey over the past week, the newspaper said. Click here to read… [27]

Israel Readies Rafah Assault While Reviving Cease-Fire Talks

Israel’s war cabinet approved an assault on the Gazan city of Rafah after civilians have first been moved out, an indication authorities are prepared to step up their military campaign against Hamas with cease-fire talks ongoing. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said March 15 the Israel Defense Forces are taking steps to relocate the estimated 1.5 million Palestinians sheltering in the city, an anticipated step ahead of a potential ground operation. Israel will also send a delegation to Qatar to resume negotiations on a deal for the return of hostages, according to a statement, after a cease-fire proposal submitted earlier by Hamas was said to include unreasonable demands. “Netanyahu approved the operation plans in Rafah. The IDF is preparing for the operational aspects and for the evacuation of the population,” the prime minister’s office said. “Concerning the hostages — Hamas’s demands are still unfounded.” Israel’s indication of the long-awaited Rafah assault was delivered without shutting the door on a diplomatic way out of the crisis. The Israeli delegation will travel to Qatar — a mediator in US-backed cease-fire talks with Hamas — having not appeared at some earlier meetings planned for Cairo. Israeli officials have repeatedly said they need to exert the maximum amount of pressure on Hamas to persuade the Iran-backed group to agree to a hostage deal. Click here to read… [28]

Turkey, Iraq Reach PKK Security Deal and Seek Closer Trade Ties

Turkey and Iraq reached a landmark security deal to crack down on Kurdish militants holed up in the mountains of northern Iraq. The agreement comes as the two countries work toward building a major trade route and restarting a key oil pipeline running from northern Iraq to Turkey’s coast. Turkey welcomed a decision by Iraq to label the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, a “banned organization” and the two countries discussed measures against the group, according to a joint statement late March 14. Ankara has long sought to prevent the Kurdish militants — labeled as terrorists by the US and European Union — from using northern Iraq as a springboard for attacks in their decades-long war for autonomy in Turkey’s largely Kurdish southeast. Turkey’s looking to expand its military operations against the PKK in Iraq. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — who’s expected to visit Baghdad next month — is courting nationalist voters ahead of local elections on March 31. The cross-border operation, which is expected to target PKK hideouts on Mount Gara, is unlikely to start before the winter snow melts in April or May. Turkey ultimately aims to create a security corridor up to 40 kilometers (25 miles) deep along the joint border. Click here to read… [29]

NATO’s biggest European base to be built next to Ukraine – media

Romania has started work on rebuilding an airbase that will become the largest NATO facility in Europe, according to Euronews. The base is located near the city of Constanta on the Black Sea, around 130km from the border with Ukraine. When the expansion of the Mihail Kogalniceanu Romanian Air Force 57th Air Base is complete, it will be able to permanently host around 10,000 NATO servicemen and their family members, the broadcaster reported on March 16. "In the new geopolitical context, with a war on the border, the development of the base thus strengthens NATO’s eastern flank,” Euronews said, referring to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The extensive project, which will cost Bucharest €2.5 billion ($2.7 billion), includes a new runway, aircraft hangars, fuel depots, and ammunition stores, it said. The base will also feature accommodation for personnel, schools, kindergartens, shops, and even its own hospital. The facility is located at the Mihail Kogalniceanu International Airport near the port city of Constanta on the Black Sea. There are currently 5,000 NATO soldiers, mainly American, stationed at the facility. The basic infrastructure for the expansion is being set up on site, Euronews said, adding that the eventual plan is to connect the existing runway at the base with a new one and to link it with the infrastructure of the international airport. It did not provide a deadline for the completion of the project. Click here to read… [30]

US Green Berets deploying to Taiwan’s front-line

US Special Operations Forces (SOF) have been permanently assigned to Taiwan’s frontline islands, preparing elite Taiwanese units for possible island defense and guerilla warfare operations against a Chinese invasion. This month, SOFREP reported that US Army SOFs have been deployed to Taiwan for ongoing training under the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). US troops on Kinmen will be situated just ten kilometers from mainland China. SOFREP states that the US military advisors will take permanent positions at the Taiwanese Army’s amphibious command centers in Kinmen and Penghu, conducting regular training exercises alongside Taiwan’s elite forces. The collaboration includes training Taiwanese counterparts to use the Black Hornet Nano, a compact military unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), and creating operational guidelines and training manuals for the drone. The Taiwanese Aviation and Special Forces Command has proposed acquiring the drone directly from the US through military sales avenues. SOFREP states that the NDAA outlines a framework for deploying US personnel to Taiwan, focusing mainly on military training without immediate plans to station civilian US officials. It mentions that reports indicate a growing presence of the US Special Operations Forces Liaison Element (SOFLE) in Taiwan, with plans to station small teams from the 1st Special Forces Group’s 2nd Battalion, Alpha Company, on the self-governing island. Click here to read… [31]

Health

UN says acute malnutrition spreading fast among children in Gaza

The main United Nations aid agency operating in Gaza has said that acute malnutrition was accelerating in the north of the Palestinian enclave as Israel prepared to send a delegation to Qatar for new truce talks on a hostage deal with Hamas. On March 16, the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) said one in three children under the age of two in northern Gaza are now acutely malnourished, putting more pressure on Israel over the looming famine. “Children’s malnutrition is spreading fast and reaching unprecedented levels in Gaza,” UNRWA said in a social media post. On March 15, Israel said it would send a delegation to Qatar for more talks with mediators after Hamas presented a new proposal for a ceasefire with an exchange of hostages and prisoners. A source familiar with the talks told the Reuters news agency that the delegation will be led by the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, David Barnea. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to convene the security cabinet to discuss the proposal before the talks start. Netanyahu’s office has said the Hamas offer was still based on “unrealistic demands”. Repeated efforts failed to secure a ceasefire before the holy month of Ramadan, which started a week ago, with Israel saying it plans to launch a new offensive in Rafah in southern Gaza. Click here to read… [32]

UK will no longer prescribe puberty blockers to children

Britain’s National Health Service (NHS) will cease providing puberty-blocking drugs to children at so-called ‘gender identity’ clinics, it announced on March 12. The UK’s conservative government welcomed the “landmark decision.” The decision was reported by multiple British media outlets and came after a four-year public consultation and investigation into the activities of the NHS’ Gender Identity Development Service (GIDS), run out of the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust in London. The Tavistock clinic was ordered to close in 2022 after investigators concluded that its doctors were “rushing” children – some as young as seven – into experimental and life-altering sex-change procedures. Puberty blocking drugs prevent the body from undergoing the typical physical changes that occur during puberty. In boys, they limit the growth of the penis and testicles and prevent the development of facial hair; in girls they slow down the development of breasts and prevent menstruation. Patients who take puberty blockers often follow this treatment with cross-sex hormone therapy in an attempt to change their gender. While advocates for these drugs maintain that the changes are reversible, puberty blockers have been linked to brittle bones and malformed genitals in patients, sometimes long after treatment stops. A court ruling in 2020 banned the prescription of these drugs to children under 16 years old, but the judgment was overturned in another ruling the following year. Click here to read… [33]