Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (04-10 March 2024)

Economic

China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: Red Sea crisis ‘a big challenge’ for Beijing, says ambassador

China’s diplomats in the Middle East are looking at ways to respond to the “big challenge” in the Red Sea caused by Houthi attacks on shipping, a senior diplomat has said. The Yemeni rebel group has been attacking ships in the Red Sea since November in what they say is a campaign in solidarity with the Palestinian people. Liao Liqiang, the ambassador to Egypt, was speaking at a panel discussion on March 05 on the sidelines of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the country’s top political advisory body. He said: “The Red Sea has emerged as a big challenge and had a real impact on us. In this regard, the diplomatic front line, especially in Egypt, which owns the Suez Canal, [we are looking at] how we can launch in-depth research to serve domestic high-quality development and put forward more pragmatic proposals for our foreign trade.” The conflict in Gaza and the Red Sea crisis shows no sign of ending, while the Arab world is closely watching China’s next move as a potential mediator in the region. Although the Houthis have said they will not target Chinese shipping, the disruption to trade is still having an effect on the world’s biggest exporter. The internationalised nature of the industry also means attacks on shipping could still directly or indirectly harm Chinese interests. Click here to read... [2]

China central banker sees full toolbox as planners vow to hit GDP goal

Chinese key economic policymakers on March 06 vowed to meet growth targets for 2024 and insisted they still have space to manoeuvre, a day after the government unveiled a socioeconomic plan that some economists consider insufficient to boost business confidence. In a rare joint news conference attended by five top officials -- the heads of Beijing's macroeconomic management body, the finance and trade ministries, the securities regulator and the central bank -- policymakers addressed a range of issues in an attempt to allay concerns about China's shaky recovery. Calling global and domestic market conditions "complex and fluid," People's Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng hinted at more monetary easing in the pipeline. "China's monetary policy toolbox is still abundant and there is still plenty of room for monetary policy," Pan said, adding that factors including the balance of short-term and long-term growth and risk prevention will be taken into consideration to buoy confidence. Zheng Shanjie, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, noted that "ultralong" special treasury bonds worth 1 trillion yuan will be issued this year to fund science and technology innovation, as well as rural-urban development. These are in addition to the usual special-purpose bonds for local governments -- set at 3.9 trillion yuan this year -- and are likely to be 30-year bonds with cheap long-term borrowing costs, according to Wei He, an economist at Gavekal Research. Click here to read... [3]

China Intensifies Push to ‘Delete America’ From Its Technology

For American tech companies in China, the writing is on the wall. It’s also on paper, in Document 79. The 2022 Chinese government directive expands a drive that is muscling U.S. technology out of the country—an effort some refer to as “Delete A,” for Delete America. Document 79 was so sensitive that high-ranking officials and executives were only shown the order and weren’t allowed to make copies, people familiar with the matter said. It requires state-owned companies in finance, energy and other sectors to replace foreign software in their IT systems by 2027. American tech giants had long thrived in China as they hot-wired the country’s meteoric industrial rise with computers, operating systems and software. Chinese leaders want to sever that relationship, driven by a push for self-sufficiency and concerns over the country’s long-term security. The first targets were hardware makers. Dell, International Business Machines and Cisco Systems have gradually seen much of their equipment replaced by products from Chinese competitors. Document 79, named for the numbering on the paper, targets companies that provide the software—enabling daily business operations from basic office tools to supply-chain management. The likes of Microsoft and Oracle are losing ground in the field, one of the last bastions of foreign tech profitability in the country. Click here to read... [4]

China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: security sector advised to curb overuse of facial recognition in tourism

China’s public security sector should scrap mandates that require hotels, hostels and bed and breakfasts to use facial recognition for registrations to protect the privacy and data security of travellers, a top political advisory body delegate has proposed. Most of China’s tourist accommodation providers now use facial recognition systems, according to China Tourism Academy president Dai Bin, who is also a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). In addition to providing identification documents at check-in, authorities now require tourists in China to submit to facial recognition scans during registration. “There are no specific laws, administrative regulations, or formal written departmental rules that mandate the installation of facial recognition devices in hotels,” Dai said in a proposal to the CPPCC on March 04. He said public security departments nationwide should scrap their requirements for tourists to undergo facial recognition check-ins at hotels and stop using the software and hardware devices. The use of facial recognition devices is booming in China, enabling retail payments, building access and identity verification at airports. Draft rules issued in August were intended to tighten the rules on the use of the technology, amid growing public concerns about its excessive use. Click here to read... [5]

Japan to double cap on skilled foreign workers from fiscal 2024

Japan plans to more than double the number of foreigners eligible for skilled worker visas in the five-year period starting fiscal 2024 to over 800,000, as the government seeks to alleviate labor shortages in industries like manufacturing, construction and agriculture. The expanded limit applies to participants in the Specified Special Worker program, which was launched in 2019 for foreign workers with specialized skills and Japanese language ability. Around 200,000 were working in Japan under this framework as of November 2023. The new 800,000 limit is based on expected labour shortages in certain industries even if employers were to raise wages and make other changes to attract talent. Japan had previously capped the program at 345,000 for the five years through March 2024. Specified special workers can currently work in one of 12 fields, each with their own caps. Most hold Type 1 status, which allows them to work in Japan for up to five years. With the right exams and other qualifications, they can eventually qualify for Type 2 status for those with expert skills. Type 2 workers can renew their status indefinitely, bring over family members, and eventually apply for permanent residency. There were just 29 Type 2 specified skilled workers in Japan as of the end of November. Click here to read... [6]

Central Banks Boost Gold Reserves to Diversify from the Dollar

Powell might not be overly worried about inflation - with his recent comments reiterating the Federal Reserve is on track to cut rates this year - but other central banks are not so relaxed. Gold’s new high signals global central banks are likely accumulating the precious metal in an effort to diversify away from the dollar, as persistently large fiscal deficits threaten to further erode its real value and lead to more inflation. Gold’s move in recent days has been broad as well as pronounced (as well as hinted at by low gold vol), with the precious metal making 50-year highs versus three-quarters of major DM and EM currencies. The biggest holdings of gold after jewellery are for private investment - ETFs, bars and coins - followed by central banks’ official reserve holdings. In recent years the swing buyers have been ETFs, which hold about 2,500 tonnes of gold. But ETF holdings have been falling even as the dollar price of gold has been rising. The dollar has been stable and real yields (which anyway have a non-linear relationship with gold) are higher over the last three months. The bulk of seasonal buying, for instance Diwali in India, is likely behind us. Further, silver has not participated in the rise. It’s therefore a reasonable supposition the official sector, i.e. central banks, has been a significant driver of gold’s recent ascent to new highs. Click here to read... [7]

Russia, Iran, and Turkey Forge New Economic Alliance in South Caucasus

The Caucasus is the key link in a rapidly developing “value chain” forged by Russia and Iran to circumvent Western sanctions, according to a policy brief published by a Dutch think-tank. The policy brief prepared by the Hague-based Clingendeal Institute asserts that wars in Syria, Ukraine and Gaza have abetted the strategic partnership between Russia and Iran. Both states have also developed strong ties with an increasingly authoritarian Turkey, a NATO member state. The three states are intent on creating a new economic order in the Caucasus, a region that the policy brief contends is “no longer grafted onto the global liberal market economy.” Before the Ukraine conflict began in 2022, the Kremlin had long been recognized as the Caucasus’ strategic arbiter. That is no longer the case. Yet, Russia’s diminished ability to project strategic influence “created scope for a tighter web of economic partnerships between itself, Iran and Turkey,” according to the policy brief. The thread that binds the three states together is a desire to keep Western economic influence in check. “This new geo-economic reality is significant for Tehran because Russian objectives of establishing an independent monetary system, energy market, and parallel supply chains outside the purview of Western regulatory frameworks can help break Iran’s isolation,” the brief adds. Click here to read... [8]

Musk lashes out at ‘eco-terrorists’ over power outage at Tesla plant

A shadowy left-wing group has said it was behind a suspected arson attack that prompted the shutdown of a major Tesla plant near Berlin. The authorities and Tesla owner Elon Musk have condemned the actions of the “terrorists.” Tesla’s Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg in Gruenheide was evacuated on March 05 when a nearby electricity pylon caught fire, the authorities and the company said. The blaze did not spread to the factory but triggered a power outage that brought production to a halt. The police said they are investigating the incident as potential arson. The far-left ‘Vulcan Group’ (Vulkangruppe) claimed responsibility for the fire in a letter sent to German media, citing “the conditions of extreme exploitation” at the plant, calling for the “complete destruction of the Gigafactory.” This group and organizations with similar names have been claiming responsibility for arson attacks in Germany since 2011, according to the authorities. Not much is known about the group’s members. Musk lashed out at the likely perpetrators on social media. “These are either the dumbest eco-terrorists on Earth or they’re puppets of those who don’t have good environmental goals,” Musk wrote on X (formerly Twitter). He added in German that it is “extremely dumb” to target the production of electric cars rather than vehicles that run on fossil fuel. Click here to read... [9]

China Able to Accelerate World’s Fastest Nuclear Power Expansion

China can aim to approve as many as 10 new nuclear reactors a year to accelerate its rapid expansion of capacity, according to the chairman of one of the nation’s largest developers. Three or four new reactors will be added to the national fleet this year to take China’s capacity to about 60.8 gigawatts, according to Lu Tiezhong, chairman of China National Nuclear Corp. That roll-out could speed up further and would benefit from policy changes to include nuclear plants in systems to trade credits for green energy production or emissions reduction efforts, he said. “Our country has the ability and obligation to be the first in the world to recognize that nuclear energy is a green attribute,” Lu was quoted as telling China Business News in an interview. “It is possible to approve 6 to 8 or even 10 units every year, and it is very likely.” China is building new nuclear plants at a faster rate than any other country and could surpass capacity in the US — currently the top market — by the end of the decade, Bloomberg NEF analysts including Yiyi Zhou said in a March 05 note. Nuclear is being pushed to help meet energy security ambitions, and as low construction costs are helping make the economics of developing new reactors more attractive, according to the report. Click here to read... [10]

Chinese investment in Asia rose 37% in 2023, led by Indonesia

Chinese investment in the Asia-Pacific region rose sharply in 2023, a new report shows, bucking global trends even as the world's No. 2 economy sputters. The report by Brisbane's Griffith University and Shanghai's Fudan University shows that Chinese investment totalled nearly $20 billion across the Asia-Pacific last year, up 37%. It also logged about $17 billion in construction contracts, partly financed by Chinese loans, marking a roughly 14% increase from 2022. The numbers stand in sharp contrast to the 12% decline in overall foreign direct investment into the emerging economies of Asia last year, the report says. The data comes the same week the Chinese government targeted gross domestic product growth of "around 5%" for 2024, matching last year's target, although analysts see heavy pressure on the economy from sluggish global and domestic demand, restrained manufacturing and a relentless property slump. Much of the overseas activity was focused on countries aligned with the Belt and Road Initiative -- Beijing's drive to build a network of infrastructure stretching from Asia to Europe and beyond. Investment in non-BRI countries plunged to an all-time low of $120 million, down 90% from what was already a record low in 2022, according to data provided by Christoph Nedopil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute. Click here to read... [11]

US could ban state oil sales to China – Bloomberg

China could be banned from buying oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) under new provisions in budget legislation unveiled by Congress on March 03, Bloomberg has reported. The issue of SPR sales to China heated up after nearly 1 million barrels released from the oil reserve in 2022 were sold to UNIPEC America, a Houston-based subsidiary of Chinese state-run energy giant Sinopec. The SPR is an emergency stockpile created following the Middle East oil embargo of 1973, when some oil-producing countries temporarily halted crude shipments to the US. It currently stands at 360 million barrels, close to a 40-year low due to sales in 2022. Lawmakers in Washington are seeking to prevent China from purchasing crude from the emergency reserve as part of a broader effort to address competition with Beijing, the outlet said. In 2022, US President Joe Biden announced the sale of a record 180 million barrels of crude from the SPR in an effort to tame rising fuel prices amid the Ukraine conflict. The idea was to buy back oil at lower prices to refill the emergency stockpile, with the dual effect of spurring domestic oil production. It was not the first time the US had sold oil from the strategic reserve to a Chinese company. The administration of Donald Trump sold some stockpiled crude to a subsidiary of Chinese state-owned oil company PetroChina in 2017. Click here to read... [12]

Sudan war threatens ‘world’s largest hunger crisis’: WFP

The war in Sudan threatens to trigger “the world’s largest hunger crisis”, a United Nations agency has warned. The World Food Programme (WFP) said on March 06 that more than 25 million people scattered across Sudan, South Sudan and Chad are “trapped in a spiral” of food insecurity. However, the brutal civil war shows no sign of easing after 10 months of fighting. The “relentless violence” leaves aid workers unable to access 90 percent of people facing “emergency levels of hunger,” the WFP added. Concluding a visit to South Sudan, WFP executive director Cindy McCain said: “Millions of lives and the peace and stability of an entire region are at stake.” Two decades after the world rallied to respond to famine in Sudan’s Darfur state, the people of the country have been “forgotten”, she added. At crowded transit camps in South Sudan, where almost 600,000 people have fled from Sudan, “families arrive hungry and are met with more hunger,” said the WFP. One in five children crossing the border is malnourished, it added. Currently, only five percent of Sudan’s population “can afford a square meal a day”, the UN agency reported. Sudan’s civil war between rival government factions erupted in April 2023. Pitching army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan against his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, who now commands the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the conflict has killed tens of thousands, destroyed infrastructure and crippled Sudan’s economy. Click here to read... [13]

Australia to Offer 10-Year Visa, Financing for Southeast Asia

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will unveil longer business visas and a A$2 billion ($1.3 billion) financing facility as the centrepiece of a package to drive Australian trade and investment in Southeast Asia, deepening regional ties at a time of uncertainty over the US-China economic relationship. Albanese will announce the measures in a speech to top executives at a special summit between Australia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Melbourne on March 05, saying “Southeast Asia is where Australia’s future lies.” “In 2022, our two-way trade with Asean member states passed A$178 billion — greater than our two-way trade with Japan or the US,” Albanese will say according to a text provided ahead of the address. “But we want to do more.” Australia is hosting the leaders of all Asean nations, bar Myanmar, for a summit to commemorate 50 years of relations with the bloc. Albanese’s centre-left Labour government has made a priority of improving economic and security links with Southeast Asia amid growing uncertainty in the region ranging from a more assertive China to the possible return of former US President Donald Trump. Among the new measures are the A$2 billion Southeast Asia Investment Financing Facility, A$140 million over four years to build infrastructure financing partnerships, as well as investment “landing pads” to support Australian businesses in Vietnam and Indonesia. Click here to read... [14]

Mexico replaces China as top exporter to U.S. in 2023

Mexico has surpassed China to become the biggest exporter of goods to the U.S. in 2023, according to data released March 06. The U.S. imported a total of $427.2 billion from China last year, a roughly 20% decrease from the year before, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, a U.S. government agency. Meanwhile, Mexico exported $475.6 billion to the U.S., up 5% from 2022. American companies have been diversifying supply chains due to unstable U.S.-China relations. The Biden administration has been encouraging this trend, calling it "friendshoring" to mitigate geopolitical risks. Friendshoring means building up supply chains among like-minded countries and reducing dependence on geopolitical rivals. The increasingly competitive nature of U.S.-China relations has highlighted national security concerns, especially in the technology trade. Southeast Asia has become a favourable place for diversification as the relatively stable region is close to China, a major manufacturing hub. U.S. President Joe Biden said in September that Vietnam is a promising partner for building a semiconductor supply chain. Singapore and Malaysia have garnered attention from American companies as well. Chinese companies have also been diversifying supply chains to shield themselves from geopolitical risks. America's trade deficit with Mexico increased 17% to $152.4 billion in 2023. Meanwhile, its deficit with China narrowed 27% to $279.4 billion, falling to the lowest level since 2010, according to the U.S. Commerce Department's data. Click here to read... [15]

Europe Is Wargaming a Food Crisis

The combined forces of El Niño and La Niña have crippled Latin American soy output. Ukrainian and Russian grain farmers have gone to war. Indonesia has banned shipments of palm oil to Europe, while China is hungry for crops. The Mediterranean region is getting more like a desert. The year is 2024. “Food shortage in Europe? The only question is when, but they don’t listen,” says an unidentified voice in a video broadcast. The audience sits quietly — listening. The dramatic collision of events, of course, hasn’t yet come to pass. But over two days in central Brussels last month, some 60 European Union and government officials, food security experts, industry representatives and a few journalists gathered to confront the possibility of something barely on the radar a few years ago: a full-blown food crisis. The group sat down in a refurbished art deco Shell building to simulate what might happen, and help design policies aimed at prevention and response. A few streets away, farmers were stepping up their protests against the EU, disrupting supplies to supermarkets as if to sharpen the focus of the participants. To watch one of the best-fed regions in the world stress test its food system underscores a growing level of alarm among governments over securing supplies for their populations. In the space of four years, multiple shocks have shaken up the way food is grown, distributed and consumed. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Xi Urges Coordination of Military, Economic Strategy at Sea

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on the military to dovetail its maritime strategy with economic development, comments that came in a meeting with defence lawmakers at the country’s annual legislative session. The armed forces “should coordinate the preparation for maritime military conflicts, the protection of maritime rights and interests, and the development of the maritime economy,” Xi said at the meeting on March 07, according to a report by state broadcaster China Central Television. Xi’s comments came as tensions have flared in the South China Sea. Coast guard vessels from China and the Philippines collided this week during the Southeast Asian nation’s resupply mission. The two countries have been locked in a territorial dispute in the waters, with Beijing claiming nearly all of the resource-rich sea, including areas that Manila says are part of its exclusive economic zone. “The phrase ‘development of the maritime economy’ appears to be Beijing’s implicit acknowledgment that one of its primary motives there is guided by the desire to monopolize the energy reserves and other marine resources in those waters,” said James Char, a research fellow at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. Click here to read... [17]

China’s Communist Party to get deeper control over State Council led by Premier Li Qiang as ties are ‘redefined’

China’s legislature is set to approve a bill to impose further and stronger Communist Party control on the State Council, the country’s cabinet. The amendment to the Organic Law of the State Council is expected to pass on March 11, the last day of the National People’s Congress (NPC) – China’s annual parliamentary meetings. It includes specific clauses saying the council will closely follow the Communist Party’s ideology, leadership and instructions, further defining its role as faithful policy implementer of the ruling party. The bill comes at a time when Premier Li Qiang – who was sworn in as the customary head of the State Council at the NPC last March – appears to be scaling back his office’s role in diplomacy and public discourse as the party focuses on loyalty to President Xi Jinping. Li, China’s No 2 official, will also not be meeting reporters at the close of this year’s NPC, after the premier’s annual press conference was scrapped – ending a tradition dating back at least three decades. The latest amendment would be the first change to the State Council law since 1982 – when it was formally introduced and passed. Li Hongzhong, vice-chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, said the amendment was part of China’s party-state overhaul that began last year, which sought to further consolidate policy-formulation and decision-making power within the party apparatus led by Xi. Click here to read... [18]

China raises defence budget 7.2% as it pushes for global heft and regional tensions continue

China on March 05 announced a 7.2% increase in its defence budget, which is already the world’s second highest behind the United States at 1.6 trillion yuan ($222 billion), roughly mirroring the rise of the last year. Tensions with the U.S., Taiwan, Japan and neighbours who share claims to the crucial South China Sea are seen as furthering growth in increasingly high-tech military technologies from stealth fighters to aircraft carriers and a growing arsenal of nuclear weapons. The official budget figure announced March 05 at the opening session of the rubber-stamp legislature’s annual meeting is considered by many foreign experts to be only a fraction of spending by the People’s Liberation Army, the military wing of the ruling Communist Party, once spending on research and development and foreign weapons purchases are considered. Click here to read... [19]

US Supreme Court rules Trump can’t be kicked off ballots

The US Supreme Court has shot down an effort by Democrat activists to stop former President Donald Trump from contesting the upcoming presidential election in multiple states. Trump hailed the verdict as a “big win for America.” March 04’s ruling reverses an earlier decision by the Colorado Supreme Court, which found in December that the state could keep Trump’s name off ballots under a constitutional amendment prohibiting “insurrectionists” from holding public office. Activist lawyers had successfully petitioned the state to remove Trump’s name, arguing that his alleged encouragement of the Capitol Hill riot in 2021 had made him an “insurrectionist.” The states of Illinois and Maine had also attempted to bar Trump from contesting the election, but both will now be forced to abandon these efforts. The ruling was unanimous, with no written dissents published. However, two different concurrences were filed. In the majority view, conservative justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, John Roberts, and Brett Kavanaugh argued that “nothing in the Constitution requires that we endure [the] chaos” of an electoral map in which different presidential candidates were offered to voters in different states. “The judgment of the Colorado Supreme Court therefore cannot stand,” they concluded, before arguing that only Congress could enforce the insurrection clause against presidential candidates. Click here to read... [20]

Trump, Biden Ride Super Tuesday Wins to Rematch Few Want

President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are set for a rematch in a general election race that few Americans are excited about and that Wall Street donors tried in vain to avert. Both Biden and his Republican rival Trump prevailed in almost every Super Tuesday nominating contest, with victories in Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee and Utah demonstrating the hold they exert over their respective political parties. GOP contender Nikki Haley suspended her campaign on March 06 after overwhelming losses. She managed only a token victory in Vermont — a deeply liberal state Republicans haven’t carried in 36 years — despite backing from billionaires including Stan Druckenmiller and Charles Koch. And a viable alternative to Biden never emerged: Primary opponent Dean Phillips didn’t stand a chance, no matter how many times investor Bill Ackman said he did. Yet the dominant performances by both Biden and Trump disguise deep anxiety and reservations among the electorate. For Democrats, the choice of Biden is a risky gamble that voters in November will put aside their concerns about the ability of an 81-year-old man to continue to lead the country for another four years, particularly at a time when foreign wars are raging and economic angst persists despite a strong post-pandemic recovery. Click here to read... [21]

China wants Russia at Ukraine peace talks – media

China and Switzerland are working behind the scenes to get Russia invited to proposed Swiss-hosted talks aimed at ending the fighting between Kiev and Moscow, the South China Morning Post reported on March 08, citing people familiar with the matter. Last month, Switzerland announced plans to organize a peace summit “by the summer.” No specific date has been named yet. The number of potential participants has also not been revealed. However, Ukraine indicated that Russia can only be invited if it agrees in advance to a litany of preconditions. According to the news website, China’s envoy for Eurasia Li Hui told EU officials that the summit “can’t be a conference that produces a plan that is pushed down the Russians’ throat.” The sources further told the publication that both China and Switzerland share a “pragmatic” view that the negotiations should not be just a formality. Unlike many Western countries, Beijing has refused to blame Moscow for the outbreak of hostilities in February 2022, and has stressed that the conflict can only be ended through diplomacy. “The earlier the talks start, the sooner peace will arrive,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters at a CCP event in Beijing on March 07. He added that “the absence of peace talks… may lead to an even bigger crisis.” Click here to read... [22]

ICC issues arrest warrants for top Russian military commanders

The Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) on March 05 issued arrest warrants for two top Russian military commanders, accusing them of committing war crimes amid the Ukrainian conflict. The two top officers, Lieutenant-General Sergey Kobylash of the Long-Range Aviation fleet and Admiral Viktor Sokolov of the Black Sea fleet, are accused of committing “the war crime of directing attacks at civilian objects,” causing “excessive incidental harm to civilians,” as well as perpetrating a “crime against humanity,” the ICC said in a press release. The alleged crimes are said to have taken place during a campaign of missile strikes “against the Ukrainian electric infrastructure from at least 10 October 2022 until at least 9 March 2023,” the court claimed. The Hague-based tribunal has repeatedly taken hostile steps against Moscow, most notably by issuing an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin last spring. Putin is accused of “unlawful deportation” of Ukrainian children to Russia. Moscow has rebuffed the ICC claims, stating that the children in question were merely evacuated form the warzone, and could be returned to Ukraine should their legal guardians request it. Russia has also taken retaliatory steps against the ICC itself, launching a criminal case against the court’s principal prosecutor and judges, ultimately issuing arrest warrants against them. Click here to read... [23]

Executions in Iran hit 8-year high in 2023

Iran hanged at least 834 people in 2023, the second-highest number of executions in two decades, according to a report released by rights groups. The report, released on March 05 by Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) and Paris-based Together Against the Death Penalty (ECPM), suggests that the 43 percent spike in the use of capital punishment last year came in reaction to nationwide protests prompted by the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini in 2022. However, while nine executions were directly linked to attacks on security forces during the 2022 protests, the use of capital punishment was also stepped up in relation to other charges. Drug-related cases accounted for more than half of the total, with 471 people executed on such charges. The report also notes that members of ethnic minorities, notably the Sunni Baluch from the southeast of Iran, were “grossly overrepresented amongst those executed”. At least 167 members of the Baluch minority were put to death, accounting for 20 percent of the total last year. The minority accounts for about 5 percent of Iran’s population. IHR director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam described the figures as a “staggering total”. “Instilling societal fear is the regime’s only way to hold on to power, and the death penalty is its most important instrument,” he said. Click here to read... [24]

Gaza ceasefire talks end in Cairo with ‘no substantial answer or solution’

Hamas says its delegation has left Egypt but talks on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip will continue next week until an agreement is reached with Israel, whom the Palestinian group says has “thwarted” mediators’ attempts to broker a deal before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. “Hamas’s delegation left Cairo this morning for consultation with the leadership of the movement, with negotiations and efforts continuing to stop the aggression, return the displaced and bring in relief aid to our people,” a Hamas statement said on March 07. Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said Israel had been “thwarting” efforts to conclude a ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Egypt during four days of talks in the Egyptian capital, Cairo. Abu Zuhri said Israel was rejecting Hamas’s demands to end its offensive in the enclave, withdraw its forces, and ensure freedom of entry for aid and the return of displaced people. There was no immediate comment from Israel. Israel did not send a delegation to these recent negotiations, during which representatives from Hamas, Qatar and Egypt tried this week to secure a 40-day ceasefire in time for Ramadan, which begins early next week. The agreement would see captives being held by Hamas and other Palestinian groups in Gaza be exchanged for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Click here to read... [25]

Biden to announce plan for US military to set up temporary Gaza aid port

United States President Joe Biden will announce a plan to create a new port in Gaza to increase deliveries of humanitarian aid to the war-ravaged enclave, senior US officials told reporters. The officials said Biden will make the announcement on March 07 night during his State of the Union speech, an annual address delivered to members of the US Congress. Under the plan, the US military would set up the pier off the coast of Gaza, but US troops would not be on the ground, the officials said. They did not provide further logistics of the plan, but one official said the US has “unique capabilities” and can do things from “just offshore”. A United Nations spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, said his organisation welcomed the announcement in a statement to the press. “Any way to get more aid into Gaza, whether by sea or airdrop, is obviously good,” Dujarric told reporters. “We need more entry points, and we need a larger volume of aid to come in by land.” However, he emphasised that the international community needs to focus on large-scale food deliveries by land, in order to address the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza. An unnamed Israeli official, speaking to the Reuters news agency, likewise said Israel “fully supports” the construction of a “temporary dock” in Gaza. Click here to read... [26]

How Sweden’s Entry into NATO Reshapes Baltic and Arctic Security

NATO has had to wait nearly 18 months for Turkey and Hungary to finally sign off on letting Sweden join the military alliance. Despite the long wait, there is a good deal of excitement in Brussels about the 32nd member. One NATO diplomat told me that Sweden's membership was the "missing piece of the jigsaw," completing the alliance's security architecture in the Nordic, Arctic, and Baltic regions. To understand, it's enough to just look at a map. Sweden is the fifth largest country in Europe -- bigger than Germany -- stretching 1,600 kilometres north to south and with a coastline twice as long. From conversations with various NATO officials, it is clear that Sweden's role in the alliance will be focused on two major areas. Firstly, it will be a hub for military activities in the northern part of Europe, linking Sweden with the other Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, and Norway -- all in the same military union for the first time in modern history. Back in 2009, the quintet agreed on the Nordic Defense Cooperation (Nordefco), which, while not a mutual-defence pact, does have some similar features -- for example, allowing participating states access to each other's airspace and military infrastructure. As Sweden joins, there is already a good deal of regional integration and cooperation. Click here to read... [27]

In northern Myanmar, Kachin rebels claim attacks on army outposts as offensive gathers pace

A rebel group in Myanmar’s northern state of Kachin said its troops on March 07 attacked more than 10 army outposts along the main road to the state capital of Myitkyina, increasing the pressure on the military government from pro-democracy resistance forces and ethnic minority armed organizations. Fierce fighting has been taking place in the area, residents told a human rights group and local media. A spokesperson for the Kachin Independence Army said the group launched assaults against outposts controlled by the army and army-affiliated militia in several townships and near Laiza, a town on the Chinese border where the KIA has its headquarters. Laiza is about 325 kilometres (200 miles) northeast of Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-biggest city. The spokesperson, Col. Naw Bu, said the military retaliated with artillery attacks and aerial bombing. Three civilians, including a child living in Laiza town, were killed, he said. The army is facing its biggest challenge since seizing power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. A surprise offensive launched last October by an alliance of armed ethnic organizations captured a large swathe of territory in northeastern Myanmar along the Chinese border. The army has also lost territory in the western state of Rakhine. Click here to read... [28]

ASEAN considers including Europe in defence talks to enhance ties

Defence ministers from ASEAN are looking to add members from the West to its regional framework as global geopolitical issues increasingly affect Southeast Asia. ASEAN defence ministers met on March 05 in the northern Laotian city of Luang Prabang to discuss regional issues. After the meeting, Thai Defense Minister Suthin Klungsaeng said the bloc is considering new members for its expanded defence meeting platform, known as the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus). "We are considering accepting new members, as there are European countries showing their interest that they want to join," Suthin told reporters, adding that France, Canada and the U.K. want to enter the ADMM-Plus. Currently, the platform has eight non-ASEAN members -- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. Saichay Kommasith, permanent secretary at Laos's defence ministry, said the ministers had assigned a working committee to flesh out the details. "The senior official committee is expected to finalize the process and propose an endorsement at the [next] ASEAN defence ministers' meeting due in November," he said. Geopolitical tensions are rising in the ASEAN region as China expands its clout and its rivalry with the U.S. intensifies. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas wars have also affected the region, including pushing the costs of commodities higher. Click here to read... [29]

Philippines Adopts New Defense Strategy Amid South China Sea Row

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro has directed the military to enforce a new strategy to defend the nation’s territory and economic interests, days after the latest clash with Chinese ships in the disputed South China Sea. “We are developing our capability to protect and secure our entire territory and Exclusive Economic Zone in order to ensure that our people and all the generations of Filipinos to come shall freely reap and enjoy the bounties of the natural resources that are rightfully ours,” Teodoro said in a statement issued on March 09. Early this week, four Filipino personnel were injured after two Chinese coast-guard vessels used water cannons against a ship chartered by the Philippine military for a resupply operation. Philippine and Chinese ships collided as Chinese vessels made “dangerous blocking manoeuvres,” Manila said. The Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept, introduced by the defence chief in January, is part of an effort to upgrade the Southeast Asian Nation’s military capability and coordinate government efforts to give Philippine nationals and companies and those authorized by its government unhampered exploration of natural resources within the EEZ. The strategy was “adopted by the Marcos administration for its whole-of-government approach to address the maritime dispute with China.” the Presidential Communications Office said in a statement on March 09. Click here to read... [30]

New Oil Law Likely to Be the End of Iraqi Kurdistan’s Independence Dream

A series of legal rulings by Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court (FSC) on 21 February underlined that the planned New Oil Law being worked on by the government of Iraq in Baghdad will be the final agent of change that will end any semblance of independence for Iraqi Kurdistan. And for Western oil companies working in the region, it looks like the future has been cancelled. To begin with, the FSC ruled that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) must turn over “all oil and non-oil revenues” to Baghdad. This marks the end of any debate over whether the KRG can continue to conduct oil sales independent of the Federal Government Iraq’s (FGI) State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) – it cannot. And even it managed to arrange channels to do so, it would have to hand over all the money made from the oil sales to the FGI in Baghdad anyway. This effectively returns all financial control of Iraqi Kurdistan back to Iraq’s central government. The FSC added that the FGI, in turn, would be responsible for paying the salaries of public servants in the KRG, with the amount paid to be deduced at source in Baghdad from the KRG’s share. And the KRG must provide monthly, in-depth accounts of every salary that the FGI is paying. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Tokyo signs aid agreements with Iran to support medical centres

Japan, ever eager to maintain good relations with strategically important Iran, signed a series of agreements to provide grassroots support for humanitarian projects centred around medical organizations under its development assistance program. A ceremony was held Feb. 5 in Tehran to mark the occasion. Japan will provide a total of 543,435 euros (87 million yen) in aid for medical equipment purchases. “This will prove to be of great help for us given our cash-strapped situation stemming from sanctions,” said an Iranian source. The move was listed under Grant Assistance for Grassroots Human Security Projects. Sums ranging from about 50,000 to 150,000 euros each will reach medical universities and charitable organizations in five local provinces that are considered financially vulnerable. Among them are Ilam province in western Iran and the southeastern province of Kerman. Donations will be used to procure a mammographic device to detect breast cancer and ophthalmic examination equipment. An Iranian Foreign Ministry official named Mohammad Bagher Beigi, who heads the 3rd department of Asia-Pacific affairs handling the country’s relationship with Japan, said, “Many thanks for these (aid) activities of the Japanese government.” “That (the support) has an important role for rural development,” Beigi said. Situated in Khuzestan province, southwestern Iran, the sate Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences is due to receive 135,000 euros for the purchase of colonoscopy equipment. Click here to read... [32]