Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (26 February- 03 March 2024)

Economic

WTO digital tax freeze in spotlight as India, others rue lost revenue

A moratorium on taxing digitally transmitted products, from movies and music to software and industry data, faces a critical juncture this week at a World Trade Organization conference in Abu Dhabi. India, Indonesia and South Africa are among the key sceptics of the moratorium, which has been in place since 1998. Opponents of the policy say it denies emerging economies a valuable source of revenue while benefiting advanced countries. Those in favour insist it keeps prices reasonable for consumers and enables the spread of digital services worldwide. The stakes are high: Global cross-border data flows are expected to reach $11 trillion by 2025, according to the International Chamber of Commerce. The WTO, which facilitates and governs trade, has continually renewed the moratorium. But the body requires consensus on key decisions, and opinions have been diverging. Regardless of this week's outcome, the issue or its consequences look likely to remain a focus. In 2020, India and South Africa circulated a document examining the scope and impact of the e-commerce moratorium on developing nations. They argued that the moratorium is "equivalent to developing countries giving digitally advanced countries duty-free access to [their] markets." In India's case, the government "has been opposed to the WTO moratorium purely on the grounds of revenue loss," said Ritesh Kumar Singh, CEO and chief economist of Indonomics Consulting, a policy research and advisory startup in Bengaluru. Click here to read... [2]

OPEC+ Could Extend Output Cuts through Year End

OPEC+’s voluntary production cuts that were set to expire at the end of the first quarter could be extended through the end of the year, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Feb 27. Crude oil prices rose with the news from three anonymous OPEC+ sources who spoke to Reuters, indicating that OPEC+ was considering an extension of its voluntary production cuts into the second quarter to lend further support to the market. What’s more, the sources suggested that the group could keep the voluntary cuts in place through the end of this year. In fact, one of the OPEC+ sources said that the cut extension into the second quarter was “likely”. Neither OPEC nor Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry responded to Reuters’ request for comments. Oil prices were trading up more than 1% on the news in afternoon trading. According to industry watchers, OPEC+ would be forced to keep the oil off the market, with supply continuing to exceed demand. “OPEC+ have no choice but to extend the current cuts in order to avoid a meltdown,” Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd, said last week. OPEC+ members collectively decided to voluntarily cut 2.2 million bpd from the group’s production this quarter, although much of that was production cuts that were already in effect, including Saudi Arabia’s 1 million bpd voluntary cut. Click here to read... [3]

New Expansion Project Could Give Qatar 25% Share of Global LNG Supply

Qatar could squeeze out rival LNG supply, including from the current top exporter, the United States, and could end up controlling 25% of the global LNG supply by 2030 after it announced a new major expansion project days ago, analysts told Reuters. On Feb 25, QatarEnergy, the state company of one of the world’s biggest LNG exporters, said it was adding another major LNG expansion project to its two ongoing projects, aiming to raise its total LNG export capacity by 85% from current levels by 2030. Qatar Energy is proceeding with a new LNG expansion project, the North Field West project, after drilling appraisal wells at the world’s largest natural gas field, the North Field it shares with Iran, and finding “huge additional gas quantities” in the field. The North Field West project adds to the ongoing North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) expansion projects, with the three field developments expected to boost Qatar’s LNG production capacity to 142 million tons per annum (MTPA) before the end of this decade, representing an increase of nearly 85% from current production levels of 77 MTPA. With the higher volumes and low-cost supply from Qatar, the Gulf producer could eke out market share from the other two major LNG exporters, the United States and Australia, analysts say. Click here to read... [4]

Houthis Knock Out Undersea Internet Connections in Red Sea

There are new reports saying Yemen's Houthis have knocked out several underwater telecommunications cables linking Europe and Asia, however, some of the accounts of the extent of damage remain conflicting. Multiple Israeli publications reported Feb 26 that four underwater communications cables between Saudi Arabia and Djibouti have been damaged in recent months - the result of Houthi sabotage. The reporting appears to have originated in Israel's financial daily outlet Globes. But one industry publication cautions, "One cable operator has confirmed damage to a cable in the region, but said it didn’t know the cause yet." Reportedly only the Seacom operator has issued confirmation that it has had cable issues at Djibouti. According to the Israeli media report: Three months after the Houthis began attacking merchant ships, the Yemenite rebels have carried out another one of their threats. "Globes" has learned that four submarine communication cables have been damaged in the Red Sea between Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and Djibouti in East Africa. According to the reports, these are cables from the companies AAE-1, Seacom, EIG and TGN. This is causing serious disruption of Internet communications between Europe and Asia, with the main damage being felt in the Gulf countries and India. Other impacted cables are operated by the companies Tata, Ooredoo, Bharti Airtel, and Telecom Egypt, but these did not issue immediate comment or confirmation as to the reported damage or outages. Click here to read... [5]

Chinese e-commerce flood into U.S. raises safety concerns

The ability of the U.S. to enforce product safety standards is being strained by the huge number of goods shipped directly to American consumers from factories in China, a Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) official said March 01, as some lawmakers urge an end to customs exemptions for low-value packages from abroad. "The bottom line is that we have many goods coming from China, about which CPSC receives limited data. That, coupled with the volume of imports, and limited staff at major entry points presents significant challenges to CPSC and our ability to stop dangerous products before they enter the stream of commerce," said James Joholske, director of the Office of Import Surveillance said at a U.S.-China Economic Security and Review Commission (USCC) hearing. Joholske said the CPSC uses entry data provided by U.S. Customs and Border Patrol to target shipments that could endanger consumer safety. Based on its risk assessment methodology, Joholske said his agency determines the shipments to be flagged for physical screening. But the explosive growth of e-commerce sites that ship products directly from China is making CPSC's risk assessment difficult, Joholske said. Because many e-commerce packages fall within the duty-free limit for imports, the government doesn't receive detailed entry data about them, as it does for large commercial shipments. Click here to read... [6]

What to watch for as China’s major political meeting of the year gets underway

One burning issue dominates as the 2024 session of China’s legislature gets underway this week: the economy. The National People’s Congress annual meeting, which opens March 05, is being closely watched for any signals on what the ruling Communist Party might do to reenergize an economy that is sagging under the weight of expanded government controls and the bursting of a real-estate bubble. That is not to say that other issues won’t come up. Proposals to raise the retirement age are expected to be a hot topic, the state-owned Global Times newspaper said last week. And China watchers will parse the annual defense budget and the possible introduction of a new foreign minister. But the economy is what is on most people’s minds in a country that may be at a major turning point after four decades of growth that propelled China into a position of economic and geopolitical power. For many Chinese, the failure of the post-COVID economy to rally strongly last year is shaking a long-held confidence in the future. The National People’s Congress is largely ceremonial in that it doesn’t have any real power to decide on legislation. The deputies do vote, but it’s become a unanimous or near-unanimous formalizing of decisions that have been made by Communist Party leaders behind closed doors. Click here to read... [7]

South Korean doctors hold massive anti-government rally over medical school recruitment plan

Thousands of senior doctors rallied in the South Korean capital, Seoul, on March 03 to express their support for junior doctors who have been on strike for nearly two weeks over a government plan to sharply increase the number of medical school admissions. The rally came as the government said it would begin to take steps March 04 to suspend the doctors’ licenses of nearly 9,000 medical interns and residents for defying government orders to end their walkouts, which have disrupted hospital operations. “The government’s absurd medical policy has triggered immense resistance by trainee doctors and medical students, and we doctors have become one,” Park Sung-min, a senior member of the Korea Medical Association, said in a speech at the rally. “I’m asking the government: Please, stop the threats and suppression now.” Protesters chanted slogans, sang and held placards criticizing the government’s plan. There were were no reports of violence. As of Feb 29 night, 8,945 of the country’s 13,000 medical interns and residents were confirmed to have left their worksites, according to the Health Ministry. The government had said they would face minimum three-month license suspensions and indictments by prosecutors if they didn’t return by Feb. 29. The striking doctors are a fraction of South Korea’s 140,000 doctors. Click here to read... [8]

In water-stressed Singapore, search for new solutions to keep the taps flowing

A team of government employees intently monitors the water, which will be collected and purified for use by the country’s six million residents. “We make use of real-time data to manage the storm water,” Harry Seah, deputy chief executive of operations at PUB, Singapore’s National Water Agency, says with a smile while standing in front of the screens. “All of this water will go to the marina and reservoirs.” The room is part of Singapore’s cutting-edge water management system that combines technology, diplomacy and community involvement to help one of the most water-stressed nations in the world secure its water future. The country’s innovations have attracted the attention of other water-scarce nations seeking solutions. A small city-state island located in Southeast Asia, Singapore is one of the most densely populated countries on the planet. In recent decades the island has also transformed into a modern international business hub, with a rapidly developing economy. The boom has caused the country’s water consumption to increase by over twelve times since the nation’s independence from Malaysia in 1965, and the economy is only expected to keep growing. With no natural water resources, the country has relied on importing water from neighbouring Malaysia via a series of deals allowing inexpensive purchase of water drawn from the country’s Johor River. But the deal is set to expire in 2061, with uncertainty over its renewal. Click here to read... [9]

Shell Puts U.S. Solar Assets Up for Sale

Shell has put a quarter of its solar power assets in the United States on the market, Reuters reports, citing a company document and unnamed industry sources. The assets total some 10.6 GW in generation and energy storage capacity, the report said, quoting the document that Shell sent to investors. The assets are under construction and Shell is offering both whole projects and parts of projects for sale. The move follows a pivot announced by new chief executive Wael Sawan last year that would see Shell refocus on its core business of extracting and selling oil and gas. Reducing global oil and gas production would be “dangerous and irresponsible” as the world still desperately needs those hydrocarbons, Sawan told the BBC last July, indicating Shell was reconsidering its transition plans. Sawan also said, asked about the UN’s Antonio Guterres’ statement that investing in new oil and gas infrastructure was “immoral and economic madness”, “I respectfully disagree.” “What would be dangerous and irresponsible is cutting oil and gas production so that the cost of living, as we saw last year, starts to shoot up again,” the supermajor’s top executive added, referring to the energy crisis in Europe that is still affecting the EU’s economies adversely. Shell’s solar power business in the United States is operated by a company called Savion, which has 21.8 GW in its development portfolio in generation projects. Click here to read... [10]

Italy Reached Out to BYD About Plans for Car Plant

BYD Co. has been contacted by the Italian government as part of the country’s efforts to attract a second car manufacturer beyond Fiat maker Stellantis NV. “We have some contacts to discuss about that,” Michael Shu, managing director of BYD Europe, said in an interview at the Geneva International Motor Show. The Chinese company considered a number of countries for its first European plant, before eventually choosing a site in Hungary. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government has plans to attract a new major carmaker to Italy after Stellantis signalled it may move some production to lower-cost countries. Manufacturers are under pressure to become more efficient in the EV transition with battery vehicle prices still far higher than equivalent combustion-engine cars. BYD, which overtook Tesla Inc. as the world’s biggest EV maker last year, in December confirmed it’ll build a factory in Hungary to help boost sales in the region. The manufacturer is focusing on Hungary and it’s too soon to say when and if a decision will be made on a second site, Shu said. Asked about BYD, Industry Minister Adolfo Urso said Feb 27 on the sidelines of an event in the southern city of Taranto that he hopes Italy would be like other European nations with several car-makers producing on its soil to “strengthen” the country’s automotive supply chain, according to comments cited by newswire AGI. Click here to read... [11]

China wine dispute may be resolved in weeks, Australian trade minister says

A trade dispute with China over tariffs on Australian wine may be resolved “in a few weeks’ time,” Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said on Feb 27, removing one of the final obstacles curbing its exports to China. Australian wine exports to China were worth about $800 million in the year to November 2020. However, that month Beijing responded to a call in Canberra for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 by blocking imports of Australian commodities such as barley, wine and coal. China has been lifting those trade barriers as relations improve and Australian officials and industry expect a review of the wine tariffs begun by Beijing last year will lead to their removal next month. Farrell said he had spoken with China Commerce Minster Wang Wentao on Feb 26, and the two sides were close to an agreement. “I’m confident that the discussions I had yesterday with the commerce minister will result in them carrying through on what they undertook, which was to expedite the review of the tariffs and that we will get a result on that in a few weeks’ time,” he said in an interview with state broadcaster ABC on Feb 27. Australia’s government said in December it was confident the tariffs would be lifted in early 2024. Click here to read... [12]

Google responds to ‘racist’ AI controversy

Some of the responses generated by Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence were “problematic” and have “shown bias,” CEO Sundar Pichai said in a company-wide email on Feb 28, vowing to address the issue. Pichai’s email made its way to multiple media outlets, including Semafor and Pirate Wires, which published it in its entirety. “I want to address the recent issues with problematic text and image responses in the Gemini app (formerly Bard),” Pichai wrote. “I know that some of its responses have offended our users and shown bias — to be clear, that’s completely unacceptable and we got it wrong.” The company is “working around the clock to address these issues,” he added. “Our mission to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful is sacrosanct,” Pichai continued. “We’ve always sought to give users helpful, accurate, and unbiased information in our products. That’s why people trust them.” This needs to be the case with the AI as well, he added. Gemini launched earlier this month but quickly ran into problems with restrictive “safety” and “diversity” programming. The AI was widely panned for “inaccuracies” in showing a range of historical characters, from the US founding fathers and Russian emperors to Catholic popes and even Nazi German soldiers. Click here to read... [13]

UN agency warns of ‘looming famine’ in Gaza amid Israel war

Famine is stalking Gaza as aid agencies struggle to deliver food to the north of the enclave, the head of the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) has warned. Humanitarian aid has not reached people in northern Gaza for more than a month, Philippe Lazzarini said on Feb 25. “The last time UNRWA was able to deliver food aid to northern Gaza was on January 23,” Lazzarini wrote on social media. Aid agencies claim that Israel has been delaying deliveries. Tel Aviv denies that charge as it prepares to report to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the measures it has taken to avert suffering in the besieged enclave. Lazzarini said calls to allow food distribution in Gaza amid the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hamas have been denied or “have fallen on deaf ears”. Warning against “looming famine”, the UN official said the situation is becoming a “man-made disaster”. At least 500,000 people are facing famine while nearly the entire population of Gaza, 2.3 million people, is experiencing acute food shortage, figures from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) show. Israel – which controls Gaza’s border crossings – has opened just one entry point into the enclave since the start of the war and imposed “endless checking procedures” for trucks to pass through, UN agencies say. Click here to read... [14]

Zambia declares national disaster after drought devastates agriculture

Zambia has declared the drought the country is currently going through a national disaster, with President Hakainde Hichilema saying the lack of rain has devastated the agricultural sector, affecting more than one million families. The southern African country has gone without rain for five weeks at a time when farmers need it the most, Hichilema said in a televised national address from the capital, Lusaka, on Feb 29. This compounded the effects of another dry spell and flooding that hit the nation last year, he added. “The destruction caused by the prolonged drought spell is immense,” he said. The dry spell has already affected 84 of the country’s 116 districts. Exacerbated by climate change and the El Nino weather phenomenon, the crisis threatens national food security, as well as water and energy supply, Hichilema said. Zambia is highly reliant on hydroelectric power. “In view of these challenges … we hereby declare a prolonged drought as a national disaster,” the president said. The measure allows for more resources to address the crisis, with the drought expected to last well into March. Due to influence of El Nino on the 2023-2024 rainy season, Zambia has lost one million hectares (2.5 million acres) from 2.2 million planted crops. Almost half of the nation’s “planted area” has been “destroyed”, Hichilema said. Click here to read... [15]

US and Europe at Odds on Tapping $280 Billion of Russian Assets

The US and its European allies say they’re determined to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine – somehow. In Brazil this week, they’re arguing about the best way to do it without getting into legal or financial jeopardy. Western nations have frozen about €260 billion ($282 billion) in securities and cash, more than two-thirds of it in the European Union. They all agree those funds should remain off-limits from Russia unless it pledges to help with Ukraine’s reconstruction. But they’re at odds over whether it’s lawful to cross the Rubicon by seizing the assets outright — so the challenge is to squeeze funds out without depleting them. With Russia on the front foot militarily as its invasion enters a third year, and aid from the US facing roadblocks in Congress, there’s growing willingness to consider what once were viewed as high-risk moves. The US has been leading the push, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week saying the legal and moral case is strong, and seeking to assuage European doubts. The UK has also expressed support for seizing the assets. France and Germany, along with the European Central Bank, have expressed the most caution. They worry about Russian retaliation targeting European assets there, and also the impact on financial stability and the euro’s status as a reserve currency, according to people familiar with the matter. Click here to read... [16]

Jeremy Hunt Turns to Retail Investors to Save the UK Market

Jeremy Hunt wants UK retail investors to help revive the fortune of the country’s ailing stock market, which has been beset by underperformance, outflows and an exodus of companies. The Chancellor of the Exchequer is open to the idea of creating a so-called British ISA, a tax-free savings account for investing in UK equities. In addition, government plans to sell a stake in the bailed-out NatWest Group Plc are likely to include a direct pitch to consumers. ISAs, or Individual Savings Accounts, were introduced almost 25 years ago offering tax-exempt savings up to a limit that’s now £20,000 ($25,250). But one version of the UK ISA plan winning support in the industry wouldn’t just incentivize savers to put British money into British stocks, it wouldn’t allow tax relief on investments abroad. That may cost households a chunk of the premium they’ve been enjoying from holding shares in more dynamic foreign markets. Rather than handing taxpayers a giveaway, it could ultimately leave them worse off, to the tune of thousands of pounds. For many in the sector, any initiatives that could reverse or stall the UK’s decline can’t come soon enough. Investors pulled a record $28.8 billion from UK equity funds last year, according to EPFR Global, while US markets have been luring London-listed firms. Click here to read... [17]

Strategic

U.S. seeks to revive idled shipyards with help of Japan, South Korea

Struggling to keep up with China's naval shipbuilding spree, the U.S. is looking to reopen closed or inactive American shipyards with the help of Asian capital, engineers and shipbuilding expertise. Last week, Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro visited two shipyards in South Korea and one in Japan, pitching at each stop the idea of joining projects to revive dormant shipyards in the U.S. U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, who accompanied Del Toro to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' shipyard in Yokohama on Feb 29, told Nikkei Asia that the visit had a dual purpose: to inspect the repair work conducted on the fleet replenishment oiler USNS Big Horn and to gauge the interest of the Japanese company in investing in a closed U.S. shipyard. "There's a closed plant in Philadelphia. There's a closed Navy shipyard in Long Beach. And there are a couple of others," Emanuel said. "We wanted to see if Mitsubishi and other Japanese companies would be interested in potentially investing and reopening one of those shipyards and being part of building Navy, commercial and Coast Guard ships." He pointed to the strategic and industrial value of such a move. "It keeps ships in theater so that we don't lose time on the travel back and forth from the United States when it comes to repair work. The repair work being done here would relieve pressure on American shipyards so they are building new ships," he said. Click here to read... [18]

Shehbaz Sharif elected Pakistan's PM for second time

Pakistan's National Assembly on March 03 elected Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister, weeks after the country's controversial elections. Sharif, who will officially assume the top job for the second time after taking an oath, will immediately confront stiff opposition from allies of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who insist the polls were rigged against them. At the same time, the new leader will also have to manage relations with his party's key coalition partner, which is lending support but has refused to join his cabinet. Sharif secured 201 votes to become prime minister. Omar Ayub Khan, the nominee of the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) backed by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), earned 92. "Shehbaz Sharif is the compromise candidate for various actors," ranging from his own Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and its coalition partner the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) to the nation's military establishment, said Asma Faiz, associate professor of political science at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS). The 72-year-old Sharif became prime minister under a similar coalition in 2022, after Imran Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote. His premiership lasted 16 months, before he stepped down last August to allow a caretaker government to oversee the elections. Most expected that his older brother, PML-N supremo and three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, would return to power after the Feb. 8 polls. Click here to read... [19]

China flexes maritime muscle with bigger, tougher coast guard ships

The China Coast Guard is expanding its presence in the East and South China seas as well as in waters near Taiwan, deploying larger and more sophisticated vessels as it essentially acts as an extension of the Chinese navy. The ramp-up reflects Chinese President Xi Jinping's focus on Beijing's maritime ambitions. Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines worry that the buildup could raise the risk of accidental clashes in these waters. In a Feb 25 incident near Taiwan's Kinmen Islands, a China Coast Guard ship told a nearby Taiwanese vessel over radio to state its port of origin, destination and reason for sailing the waters. A video released by the China Coast Guard showed four of its vessels at the site. The Chinese ship that radioed the Taiwanese vessel bore the number 2202 and is an updated naval missile frigate with a full-load displacement of at least 2,000 tonnes, a Hong Kong news outlet reported. It is also believed to be equipped with machine guns. Ship 2202 has long been active in waters near the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands -- claimed by China as the Diaoyu -- a leading naval expert said in a Feb 26 report by the Chinese Communist Party-affiliated Global Times. By policing waters near Taiwan, the ship could provide an "overwhelming advantage" over the Taiwanese side, said the expert, a senior figure at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. Click here to read... [20]

North Korea has sent 6,700 containers of munitions to Russia, South Korea says

North Korea has shipped about 6,700 containers carrying millions of munitions to Russia since July to support its war against Ukraine, in a sign of ongoing arms transfers, South Korean media reported on Feb 27, citing the defence minister. At a briefing on Feb 26 for local media, Minister Shin Won-sik said the containers might carry more than 3 million 152 mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122 mm rounds. “It could possibly be a mix of the two, and you can say that at least several million shells have been sent,” Shin said, according to the Yonhap news agency. Hundreds of North Korean munitions factories are running at around 30% of their capacity due to a lack of raw materials and electricity, but those producing artillery shells for Russia were operating “at full swing,” he added, without elaborating on the source of the information. Seoul and Washington have accused Pyongyang and Moscow of trading arms and condemned the North for supplying weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine. Both countries have denied it even as they pledged to strengthen military cooperation. The U.S. State Department, in a fact sheet released on Feb 23, said that North Korea has delivered more than 10,000 containers of munitions or related materials to Russia since September. Click here to read... [21]

U.S. cautions after Hawaii neighbor Kiribati gets Chinese police

The United States on Feb 26 cautioned Pacific Islands nations against assistance from Chinese security forces after Reuters reported that Chinese police are working in the remote atoll nation of Kiribati, a neighbour of Hawaii. Kiribati’s acting police commissioner Eeri Aritiera told Reuters last week uniformed Chinese officers were working with police in community policing and a crime database program. Kiribati is a nation of 115,000 people whose closest island is 2,160 km (1,340 miles) south of Honolulu, and the news comes as Beijing renews a push to expand security ties in the Pacific Islands in an intensifying rivalry with the United States. Asked to comment on the Reuters report, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department responded using the abbreviation of the People’s Republic of China: “We do not believe importing security forces from the PRC will help any Pacific Island country.  Instead, doing so risks fueling regional and international tensions.” The official added that Washington did not tolerate China’s “transnational repression efforts,” including its attempts to establish police stations around the world. “We are concerned about the potential implications security agreements and security-related cyber cooperation with the PRC may have for any Pacific Island nation’s autonomy,” the spokesperson said. Kiribati is considered strategic not only given its relatively proximity to Hawaii, but because it has one of world’s biggest exclusive economic zones, covering more than 3.5 million square km (1.35 million square miles) of the Pacific. Click here to read... [22]

Palestinian government resigns

Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh of the Palestinian Authority (PA) has announced he is stepping down amid an “unprecedented escalation” of violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, as well as “genocide” in Gaza. The senior official tendered his letter of resignation to President Mahmoud Abbas on Feb 26, six days after informing him about the intention verbally, he told a government meeting in Ramallah the same day. Shtayyeh said he took the decision due to “political, security, and economic developments related to the aggression against Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, and the unprecedented escalation” in the territories under the PA’s partial administration. He was appointed by Abbas in March 2019. Gaza is controlled by the rival faction Hamas and is under Israeli siege, which was launched in retaliation for a deadly incursion by the militant group in October. Health officials in the enclave reported on Feb 26 that the number of confirmed deaths in Gaza had almost reached 30,000. The outgoing prime minister said the Palestinian people were facing “genocide, attempts at forced displacement, starvation in Gaza, intensification of colonialism, colonizers’ terrorism, and repeated invasions of camps, villages, and cities in Jerusalem and the West Bank.” Click here to read... [23]

Poland and Ukraine in talks on border closure – Warsaw

Poland and Ukraine are in talks about temporarily closing the border between the two countries amid a blockade by protesting farmers, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said. Kiev has denied such discussions were underway. The announcement comes as Polish farmers continue to block border crossings in protest against the import of Ukrainian grain. They claim producers from the neighboring country have an unfair advantage, given that they do not have to abide by EU regulations or pay the bloc’s taxes. ”We are also talking with the Ukrainian side about a temporary closure of the border and the exchange of goods,” Tusk said on Feb 28, as cited by RMF24, an online news portal. The Polish authorities “want to help Ukraine, but we can’t allow this help to bring very negative effects to our citizens. We are constantly looking for a solution that will protect the Polish market from being flooded with clearly cheaper [Ukrainian] agricultural products,” he stressed. The PM said that if an agreement on the temporary border closure is reached, it will be a “painful” solution for both sides. He stressed that eventually Ukraine and Poland would have to find a more suitable, “long-term” solution to the crisis, which has been ongoing since October. Click here to read... [24]

Germany in Damage Control After Russia Leaks Missile Talks

Germany said Vladimir Putin is trying to divide Ukraine’s allies with “absurd and disgraceful propaganda” following an intelligence leak that raised questions about the country’s vulnerability to espionage. Russian media last week published what it said was a private discussion between high-ranking German air force officials about supplying powerful Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, something Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly ruled out. According to the transcript, the officers also discussed how many of the missiles would be needed to destroy a bridge linking mainland Russia to Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Putin annexed in 2014. After Scholz called the leak “a very serious matter” at the weekend, Wolfgang Buechner, a deputy German government spokesman, said March 04 that it’s no surprise that the Kremlin is targeting Germany as a major provider of aid to the government in Kyiv. Ukraine’s allies “should not be playing Putin’s game,” Buechner said at a regular news conference in Berlin dominated by questions about the breach. A defense ministry spokesman added that an internal investigation will take a few days to complete. He said the armed forces are not aware of any other incidents in which Russia has gained access to internal German military communications. Click here to read... [25]

Conservatives dominate Iran’s parliament, assembly elections

A range of conservative candidates have swept the parliamentary and religious assembly elections in Iran as the country faces political and economic challenges. Final vote counting is under way after millions went to the polls on March 01 to select 290 lawmakers and 88 members of the Assembly of Experts, a body tasked with choosing the supreme leader made up entirely of Islamic scholars. Official preliminary results from Tehran on March 02 indicate that ultraconservatives Mahmoud Nabavian and Hamid Resaee have topped the list of 30 representatives, followed by 35-year-old state television host turned first-time lawmaker, Amir Hossein Sabeti. Parliament chief Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf finished fourth, and only a handful of his sponsored candidates ascended. Longtime lawmaker Mojtaba Zonnour grabbed a seat in the holy Shia city of Qom. Few reformist or moderate voices managed to secure entry into parliament, marking the second parliamentary election in which they were largely absent. Veteran lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian was among few moderates who managed to get approved by the constitutional watchdog Guardian Council and secure votes, and will represent Tabriz in the 12th parliament. Ali Motahari, conservative former parliamentarian and son of renowned late scholar Morteza Motahari, who has become a more moderate politician compared with other legislators, failed along with most members of his 30-strong list for Tehran to come close to securing a seat. Click here to read... [26]

Iran Reduces Near-Weapons-Grade Stockpile, Defying Expectations

Iran reduced its stockpile of near-weapons-grade nuclear material even as it continued expanding its overall nuclear program, the United Nations’ atomic watchdog said Feb 26, marking a surprise step that could ease tensions with Washington. The move comes at a moment when Iran and the U.S. have sought to avoid direct confrontation in the regional conflict that grew out of Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and Israel’s aggressive response. However, Iran-backed militias have attacked U.S. forces in the region and the U.S. and U.K. are conducting strikes on the Houthis in Yemen, a pro-Iran group that has been attacking international vessels in the Red Sea. Iran’s decision to reduce its stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium over the last 3½ months, by deliberately diluting the material by mixing it with low-grade 2% material, is the first time the International Atomic Energy Agency has reported a quarterly drop in Tehran’s highly enriched stockpile since Iran started producing 60% material in 2021. Iran carried out the dilutions twice since the start of the year. Last summer, it also diluted a small amount of 60% material. Iran, which says its nuclear program is for purely peaceful, civilian purposes, is the only country without nuclear weapons that produces 60%-enriched uranium. Click here to read... [27]

Iran Tried to Persuade Sudan to Allow Naval Base on Its Red Sea Coast

Iran unsuccessfully pressed Sudan to let it build a permanent naval base on the African country’s Red Sea coast, something that would have allowed Tehran to monitor maritime traffic to and from the Suez Canal and Israel, according to a senior Sudanese intelligence official. Iran has supplied Sudan’s military with explosive drones to use in its fight with a rebel warlord and offered to provide a helicopter-carrying warship if Sudan had granted permission for the base, said Ahmad Hasan Mohamed, an intelligence adviser to Sudan’s military leader. “The Iranians said they wanted to use the base for intelligence gathering,” Mohamed said in an interview. “They also wanted to station warships there.” He said Khartoum turned down Iran’s proposal to avoid alienating the U.S. and Israel. A spokesman for Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York declined to comment. A naval base on the Red Sea would allow Tehran to tighten its grip on one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, where it is helping Yemen-based Houthi rebels launch attacks on commercial vessels. Iran and the Houthis say the attacks are aimed at punishing Israel and its allies for the fighting in Gaza. Iran’s regional rivals, Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, all have direct access to the waterway. Click here to read... [28]

EU’s New Defense Plan Aims to Boost European Military Purchases

The European Union will aim to make as much as half of its defence system purchases within the bloc by 2035, reversing a trend of buying a majority of its military equipment from third countries. The goal is part of the EU executive arm’s European Defense Industrial Strategy, which also outlines collaborative investments, measures to secure critical supplies and changes to the European Investment Bank’s lending policies, according to a draft document seen by Bloomberg. The European Commission is expected to present the strategy, which is still subject to change, within the coming weeks. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed the limitations of the EU’s industry and its reliance on others for key supplies and defense capabilities, leaving the bloc struggling to ramp up production capacity and spending after decades of underinvestment. “The geopolitical developments point to a compelling need for Europe to take increased responsibility for its own security and to get ready to effectively address the full spectrum of the threats it faces,” according to the draft. “The EU is and must continue to become a stronger actor in security and defense, thus a more capable security provider not only for its own citizens but also to the benefit of international peace and security.” Click here to read... [29]

Macron’s Ambiguity on Ukraine Backfires as Allies Balk at Troops

European leaders rejected the prospect of sending combat troops to Ukraine, undercutting French President Emmanuel Macron’s promise to do whatever it takes to keep Russia from winning the war. At an informal gathering of European leaders in Paris on Feb 26, Macron proposed sending more personnel to Ukraine in limited areas, according to people familiar with the discussions, and refused to rule out putting boots on the ground. “There’s currently no consensus to send ground troops in an official and open way,” he said. “But in terms of dynamics, nothing can be ruled out.” During the summit, there was no discussion about sending European soldiers directly into the battle field, but Macron’s comments helped foster strategic ambiguity, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Such a move, however, would directly put NATO in a fight with Russia. Macron called the gathering in a show of support for Ukraine at a delicate moment in the war, and to underscore Western determination to help it win. Following the meeting, he said: “We will do everything we can to prevent Russia from winning the war.” Asked about NATO troops being sent to Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it would mean the “inevitability” of conflict, and Western countries should evaluate if such a move “corresponds with their interests,” according to the Interfax news service. Click here to read... [30]

Ukraine Plunders Howitzer Graveyard to Keep Big Guns Firing

At a repair base in Ukraine, mechanics patched together Western artillery guns using parts scavenged from the battered carcasses of some 20 damaged howitzers scattered outside. The need to create such “Frankenguns” comes after two years of war that have meant many of the weapons donated by the West are now destroyed, damaged or in need of new components. Ukraine is on the defensive after Russian forces recently took the eastern city of Avdiivka. The U.S. and its allies are increasingly concerned about Ukraine’s ability to sustain its stocks of Western weaponry on the battlefield. Maintaining weapons is crucial for Kyiv’s fight amid uncertainty over future U.S. military aid, and as Russia increases its arms production. The task isn’t easy. Ukraine operates a variety of different Western weapons systems whose components aren’t always interchangeable, and engineers said they haven’t received a steady flow of parts from the West. Spares from the U.S. are provided via aid packages, meaning if new funding agreements aren’t reached, the flow of American parts could dry up. In response, Ukraine is making its own spares for Western equipment and cannibalizing other weapons to source vital components. To help, some foreign arms companies plan to start conducting repairs in Ukraine to reduce time-consuming travel. “I am always worried about spares, but I have to find solutions,” said Serhiy, chief engineer at the repair base, the location of which is secret. Click here to read... [31]

Marcos Floats 2025 Date for Controversial Philippine Referendum

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said a referendum to amend the constitution may be held along with the midterm elections next year, advancing his plan to revise the charter that has sparked a bitter dispute between the country’s most powerful politicians. Conducting the two polls separately would be costly, Marcos told reporters in Manila on Feb 28 before he departed for an official visit to Australia. “If we hold the plebiscite together with the local elections in May next year that will mean big savings for us. We are studying it closely,” he said. Marcos is pushing to revise the 1987 Constitution, seeking changes in economic provisions to attract more foreign investments and spur one of Asia’s fastest growing economies. The House of Representatives, led by Speaker Martin Romualdez, Marcos’s cousin who’s supporting the plan, began deliberations this week on the proposed changes. Any revision to the constitution will need to undergo a public vote via a referendum and must secure majority support. The president’s plan has drawn opposition, including from former President Rodrigo Duterte, who has accused Marcos of seeking to prolong his term, which is limited to six years under the present charter. Marcos has said the constitution — which was ratified after his late dictator-father’s ouster in 1986 — “was not written for a globalized world” and needs to be adjusted to spur economic activity. Click here to read... [32]

Health

Health, Location Data Should Be ‘Off Limits’ for AI, FTC Chair Says

Sensitive personal data related to health, location or web browsing history should be “off limits” for training artificial intelligence models, US Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan said Feb 27. The FTC is working to create “bright lines on the rules of development, use and management of AI inputs,” Khan said at RemedyFest, a conference hosted by Bloomberg Beta and Y Combinator. “On the consumer protection side, that means making sure that some data — particularly peoples’ sensitive health data, geolocation data and browsing data — is simply off limits for model training.” Khan said that companies that want to use data they’ve already collected for AI training also must actively notify users of the change. The rapid development of generative AI technology, which can create voice, video or text in a variety of styles, has dazzled Silicon Valley. At the same time, the technology has raised privacy and security concerns because of its ability to impersonate individuals, for example President Joe Biden in a robocall. The agency, which has a dual mission to enforce consumer protection and antitrust law, has raised concerns about the use of AI tools in frauds and scams as well as its improper use by companies. In December, the FTC sued Rite Aid Corp. over its use of an AI facial recognition system that mistakenly tagged consumers as shoplifters. Click here to read... [33]