Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (05-11 February 2024)

Economic

Trump says U.S. must impose more tariffs on China, possibly over 60%

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said he would impose tariffs on China again if he is elected in November and they could exceed 60%. "We have to do it," Trump said in an interview aired on Feb 04 with the Fox News program "Sunday Morning Futures." "I mean, look, the stock market almost crashed when it was announced that I won the Iowa primary (sic) in a record. And then when I won New Hampshire, the stock market went down like crazy," he said, referring to the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary nominating contests in January. Asked about a report that he is considering imposing 60% tariffs on Chinese goods if elected, Trump said, "No, I would say maybe it's going to be more than that." Trump is the frontrunner for his party's nomination to challenge Democratic President Joe Biden in the Nov. 5 U.S. election. Trump imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods in 2018 and 2019 amid a bitter trade war between the world's two largest economies. The Biden administration retained the tariffs and added new restrictions prohibiting the export of advanced semiconductors and the equipment to make them, citing security concerns. The U.S. trade representative is conducting a review of the tariffs. Trump dismissed the notion that he would start another trade war with China. Click here to read… [2]

China's favored state-owned companies squeeze private sector

China's state-owned enterprises are putting pressure on the country's previously dynamic private sector. The combined market capitalization of big private companies has fallen by about 60% in the two and a half years to the end of 2023, a study by a U.S. think tank has found. Many market watchers believe China's tightening of controls, such as the zero-COVID policy and the clampdown on the tech industry, is responsible for the slump in the private sector. The Peterson Institute for International Economics analyzed the market capitalization of China's top 100 companies. It found that the share of total market capitalization held by state-controlled enterprises, in which the government holds a stake of 50% or more, rose to 50% by the end of 2023, the highest proportion in five years. State-owned companies accounted for 31% of total market cap among the top 100 companies in June 2021, when private Chinese companies, led by tech juggernauts like Alibaba Group Holding and Tencent Holdings, were growing. In contrast, the share of total market value held by private enterprises, defined as those less than 10% owned by the state, declined, dropping below that of state-owned companies at the end of 2022. By the end of last year, private companies' share of total market cap was 37%. Click here to read… [3]

Over 30 Ukrainian companies to visit Japan for reconstruction conference

More than 30 Ukrainian companies are expected to visit Japan to attend a conference in Tokyo this month that will focus on rebuilding Ukraine's economy. The Japan-Ukraine Conference for Promotion of Economic Reconstruction will be held Feb. 19. The delegation of Ukrainian companies will also attend a bilateral business exchange forum being hosted the next day by the Ukrainian, Japanese and Tokyo chambers of commerce. The Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry is organizing the visit. Possible areas of collaboration include energy, infrastructure and agriculture, with a goal of boosting investments in Ukraine. DTEK, Ukraine's largest private-sector energy company, was in discussion with Japanese companies on supplies for "grid modernization, renewable projects, battery storage or whatever that can be produced in Japan," CEO Maxim Timchenko told Nikkei in an interview. DTEK has invested in solar and wind power. It connected 1,150 renewable energy generation facilities to the grid between January and November of 2023. This raised its total renewable generation capacity to about 1,900 megawatts -- enough to power the Kyiv area. "During wartime, it is much more secure to build more decentralized power generation" like solar and wind farms than big fossil fuel power stations, Timchenko said. The latter are more vulnerable to military strikes. Click here to read… [4]

Nippon Steel faces bipartisan effort to torpedo U.S. Steel deal

Nippon Steel Corp. must break through a formidable wall in acquiring U.S. Steel Corp., including opposition to the deal from a major labor union and the current and a former U.S. president. David McCall, president of United Steelworkers International, issued a statement on Feb. 2 that said, “Today we received personal assurances that President Joe Biden has our backs.” U.S. government officials have indicated they would look into whether any national security issues would arise from Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel. However, Biden came out even before such an investigation began to express his support for the USW's opposition to U.S. Steel being acquired by a foreign company. Biden was responding to the statement made on Jan. 31 by former U.S. President Donald Trump who said, “I would block it instantaneously. Absolutely.” He also boasted, “We saved the steel industry. We want to bring jobs back to the country.” As president, Trump set high tariffs on imported steel. Both Biden and Trump are vying for the labor union vote because it could play a crucial role in key battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, where U.S. Steel is headquartered. USW has about 1.2 million members who could swing the vote in the U.S. presidential election in not only Pennsylvania, but also neighboring Ohio, which are both rich in electoral votes. Click here to read… [5]

TSMC to build second Japan chip factory, raising investment to $20 billion

Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC said on Feb 06 it will build a second Japanese plant to begin operation by the end of 2027, bringing total investment in its Japan venture to more than $20 billion with the support of the Tokyo government. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. announced plans in 2021 to build a $7 billion chip plant in Kumamoto in southern Japan's Kyushu. TSMC said last month the first Japanese factory would open in February with volume production in the fourth quarter, and that the company was also exploring building a second factory in the country. In a statement, TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, said its majority-owned unit Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing in Kumamoto would build a second fabrication plant, or fab, in response to rising customer demand. The second fab will begin construction by the end of this year and with both factories the site is expected to have total monthly capacity of more than 100,000 12-inch wafers to be used for automotive, industrial, consumer and high performance computing-related applications, TSMC said. The capacity plan may be further adjusted based upon customer demand, it added. TSMC, a major supplier to companies including Apple and Nvidia, holds an 86.5% stake in the Japanese venture, with Sony Group 6%, auto parts maker Denso 5.5% and carmaker Toyota 2%. Click here to read… [6]

Signs of rare unrest among North Korean workers in China, researchers say

South Korea’s intelligence agency says poor conditions for North Koreans working overseas have led to “incidents and accidents,” while researchers report rare protests and unrest in China among workers from a North Korean military-linked trading company. Fed up with unpaid wages and lingering pandemic lockdowns, as many as 3,000 North Korean workers in China staged protests last month, according to two South Korean government-affiliated researchers, including a former North Korean diplomat. Reuters could not independently confirm the protests. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said they were “not aware” of the issue when asked about it at a daily briefing Feb 08. The North Korean embassy in Beijing and its consular office in the Chinese border city of Dandong did not respond to calls from Reuters seeking comment. Large-scale protests by North Koreans are virtually unheard of, and the researchers said it suggests these laborers are caught in a disagreement over their fate: China wants to send them home to comply with UN resolutions and avoid defections, but North Korea wants to maintain the number of laborers there. Pyongyang exerts tight control over its overseas workers, including seizing as much as 90% of their wages for government funding, according to the 2023 U.S. State Department Trafficking in Persons Report, which said they often face “conditions amounting to forced labor.” Click here to read… [7]

Oil Market Needs $14 Trillion: OPEC Secretary General

The global oil market will require $14 trillion in investments over the next 20 years if oil-producing nations hope to be able to fulfill global energy demands through 2045, OPEC's Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said on Feb 06. According to the Secretary-General who spoke at India Energy Week in Goa, oil demand "will continue to rise and there is a need to ensure that supply is maintained." Al-Gais added that globally, energy demand would rise between now and 2045 by 23 percent. India's oil demand is expected to double by 2045 to 38 million bpd from its current 19 million bpd, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi said early at the event. "India's oil demand is expected to increase to 38 million barrels per day by 2045 from the current 19 million barrels. India is consistently growing its energy capacity. We aim to increase the share of natural gas to 15% of primary energy missfrom 6 % now. By 2030, the refining capacity will be at 450 mtpa in India," Modi said. Al-Ghais was also vocal about oil's place among the energy sources even as far out as 2045, saying that even as many nations around the world look to triple their renewable energy capacity, no single renewable source will be able to carry the weight of the global energy demand growth. Click here to read… [8]

Saudi Arabia Signals a Shift in Oil Strategy

In 1943 President Franklin Roosevelt declared that "the defense of Saudi Arabia is vital to the defense of the United States." The reason: Ten years earlier the desert kingdom had granted a concession to Standard Oil of California to explore for oil. It turned out there was some, in fact, a lot. Roosevelt visited with the kingdom's monarch, King Ibn Saud, early in 1945 to further cement relations between the two countries, paving the way for a mutual defense treaty in 1951. The idea was to provide protection for Saudi Arabia in exchange for access to the country's oil. Fast forward to last week. The Saudi Ministry of Energy ordered the government-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, not to exceed its current so-called Maximum Sustainable Capacity of 12 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil production. In other words, stop any expansion plans. Petroleum geologist and consultant Art Berman cut through all the speculation about the reason behind this move by pointing out that the energy ministry was only directing Aramco to comply with the law. This latest reminder that Saudi Arabia is no longer a wholly-owned gas station of the United States has been hard for the U.S. government to absorb. All the way back in 2008, then King Abdullah said he wanted to save some of the kingdom's oil for future generations, echoing the country's energy minister who suggested that 12.5 mbpd would be Saudi Arabia's limit. Click here to read… [9]

UAE in talks to develop $22bn beach land in Egypt

The United Arab Emirates is in advanced talks to purchase and develop a large piece of land on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast in a deal that could bolster the troubled economy of the North African nation. An UAE consortium has been picked to work with Egyptian partners to develop the land in Ras el-Hekma, about 350km (217 miles) northwest of Cairo, an Egyptian official was quoted by CNBC Arabia on Feb 07 as saying. Hossam Heiba, the chief executive officer of the state-run General Authority for Investment and Free Zones, told the broadcaster that the initial estimate for the total project was $22bn and that an agreement was expected soon. He did not provide further details, nor name any companies or entities. On Feb 08, Egypt’s cabinet said the government was preparing to announce new projects that will “earn huge amounts of foreign currency” and create hundreds of thousands of new jobs in an apparent reference to a multibillion-dollar development planned along the Mediterranean coast in an area of upscale luxury resorts. The emirate of Abu Dhabi, one of seven in the UAE and the country’s capital, is involved in the project, according to unnamed people familiar with the talks quoted by US outlet Bloomberg, which also reported that Egypt may retain ownership of about 20 percent of the vast territory spanning 180 million square metres. Click here to read… [10]

Global Steel Markets Navigate Through Turbulence and Transition

Data from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) released on January 25 indicates that global crude steel production remained largely unchanged year on year. Indeed, steel market analysis says poured liquid steel totaled 1.88 billion metric tons last year, which is similar to the volume poured in 2022. The association also stated that crude steel production in December was 136 million metric tons, down 5.3% from over 143 million metric tons during the same month the previous year. One analyst told MetalMiner that record-high interest rates, slowing industrial production growth in Europe, and a myriad of issues in China prompted mills worldwide to reduce production. The source added that imports from East Asia and Southeast Asia also impacted prices in Europe. However, crude steel from China, the world’s largest net producer, was largely unchanged in 2023 at 1.01 billion metric tons. Worldsteel data shows that volume reflected an increase of just 0.1% year on year. The organization also noted that December crude production in the world’s second-largest economy was 67.4 million metric tons. This represents a 14.9% decrease on the year from 79.2 million metric tons. Total crude steel production in Asia for all of 2023 totaled 1.38 billion tons, up 0.8% from 1.39 billion tons. Japanese steelmakers poured slightly less than 87 million metric tons, down 2.5% from 89.2 million metric tons. Click here to read… [11]

Germany facing ‘greatest real estate crisis’ in 15 years – bank

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, a German bank focused on commercial real estate, has become the latest lender in the country to report having put aside more provisions for its loan portfolio amid what it calls the worst decline in commercial property values since the global financial crisis. The bank, known as PBB, reported this week having increased provisions in the fourth quarter, saying in a statement that it had set aside €215 million ($231.7 million) for bad loans due to “persistent weakness of the real estate markets.” It added, however, that despite this step, “PBB remains profitable thanks to its financial strength – even in the greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis.” The bank’s shares dropped more than 3% on Feb 09 and are down 27% so far this year and 40% in the past six months. On Feb 08, it sought to reassure investors that it had enough cash and highly liquid assets on its balance sheet to operate for six months without new funding from investors. Click here to read… [12]

US set to overtake China as Germany’s top trade partner – data

The US is on track to surpass China as Germany’s leading trade partner as soon as next year, Reuters reported this week, citing the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK). China has held the top spot for the past seven years. German exports and imports to China together amounted to around €253 billion ($272 billion) last year, while the corresponding figure for the US was €252.3 billion ($271.9 billion), preliminary data from the German Federal Statistics Office showed. If the current trend persists the US will likely eclipse China as Germany’s top trade partner next year, according to DIHK. “At the moment there are no signs of a significant increase in demand for products made in Germany from China,” DIHK’s chief executive for foreign trade, Volker Treier, said. “The US economy is currently doing significantly better than in many other important sales markets for Germany, such as the countries in the EU,” he added. Meanwhile, German exports to the US are on the rise. In 2023, goods worth almost €158 billion ($170.2 billion) were sent across the Atlantic, boosting the share of the US in Germany’s total exports to around 10%, the outlet said. German exports to China dropped by almost 9% to roughly €97 billion ($104.5 billion) in 2023, as automobiles and chemical products posted a particularly noticeable decline. Click here to read… [13]

Boeing’s standards ‘progressively declining’ – top airline boss

US aerospace giant Boeing is in the “last chance saloon” in light of the long decline in the company’s manufacturing performance, Tim Clark, the head of Emirates Airline, has said. One of the most high-profile figures in aviation, Clark told the Financial Times on Feb 04 that he had seen a “progressive decline” in Boeing’s standards, which he put down to long-running management and governance missteps, including prioritizing financial performance over engineering excellence. Clark also said he was preparing to send his own engineers to oversee the US plane maker’s production lines. “They have got to instill this safety culture which is second to none. They’ve got to get their manufacturing processes under review so there are no corners cut etc. I’m sure [chief executive] Dave Calhoun and [commercial head] Stan Deal are on that . . . this is the last chance saloon,” said Clark, who has held senior roles at Emirates since the 1980s and has been the airline’s president since 2003. One of Boeing’s largest customers, Emirates in November placed an order for 95 wide-body Boeing 777 and 787 jets. Boeing’s previous management made numerous mistakes, the Emirates boss claimed. Those included outsourcing some of its manufacturing and moving parts of the 787 production to South Carolina to cut costs following battles with unions at its primary base north of Seattle, Washington. Click here to read… [14]

Boosted by military orders, Russia’s economy grows by 3.6%

Russia’s economy grew 3.6 per cent last year thanks to a boost in military spending because of the offensive in Ukraine although long-term economic challenges remain, official data showed. The government Rosstat statistics agency published the figures in a statement on Feb 07, just a few weeks before the expected re-election of President Vladimir Putin. In 2022, gross domestic product (GDP) had contracted by 1.2 per cent after the initial effects of Western sanctions imposed on Moscow after it sent troops into Ukraine. The 2023 result shows the economy has largely absorbed the effect of the sanctions, finding ways around them by changes in supply lines and trade partners and through government intervention. Economic activity was supported by favourable energy prices, easy credit conditions and strong domestic demand because of the defence sector, as well as rising salaries to attract workers in sectors experiencing labour shortfalls. And, despite a major increase in federal spending, public deficit has remained contained at 1.9 per cent of gross domestic product, the finance ministry said. The auto sector – a symbol of Russia’s openness to foreign capital now dominated by Chinese manufacturers – and banking have recovered well from the exit of major European firms and heavy sanctions. Click here to read… [15]

Chinese banks ‘refrained’ from dealing with Russia over sanctions fears

China and Russia are in “close dialogue” over international payments processing after a Chinese bank was reported to have stopped transactions with Russia for fear it would be sanctioned. Russian deputy foreign minister Andrey Rudenko said problems regarding payments between China and Russia “will be solved”, Russian news agency Tass reported on Feb 09. Rudenko said a number of Chinese banks had “refrained from banking activities” with Russia due to “fears of sanctions” but he did not think China would limit transactions through the Financial Messaging System, the Russian equivalent of the Swift transfer system. When asked to comment on reports of problems with payments between the two countries, including transactions through the Financial Messaging System, he told reporters: “No, we don’t have such an issue. A couple of Chinese banks refrain so far as precaution, over fears [of being] sanctioned. But we are confident that this problem will be solved.” Trade between the two countries is expanding successfully, he added. “And this is the first demonstration of the fact that we solve such problems,” he said. “We have a close dialogue with our Chinese friends and, of course, we will solve all the problems that arise,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a briefing call on Feb 07. Click here to read… [16]

China displays FC-31 fighter model at Saudi defence show in bid to increase exports as Middle East nations explore options

China’s state-owned aircraft manufacturers were out in force in Saudi Arabia last week, showcasing their latest in fighter jet technology with the hope of exporting more orders to the region.One major source of interest at the World Defence Show in Riyadh was a model of the FC-31, China’s newest fifth-generation fighter jet built by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (Avic) and China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation (Catic). The jet is designed for use on aircraft carriers and is still in the development phase but its makers see it as a potential rival to fifth-generation US jets, the aircraft of choice for many countries in the region. A Catic official at the show, who asked not to be named, said the FC-31 was not yet in service with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force but would soon be in operation. The threat of a wider regional conflict could encourage Middle Eastern countries to expand their fighter jet forces but according to observers, China will face big challenges in its bid to chip away at US dominance and fierce competition from other contenders. FC-31 fighter jets feature stealth technology and are known as the Chinese equivalent of Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation fighter jet, the F-35. Click here to read… [17]

Strategic

Trump, House GOP Leaders Reject Senate Border-Ukraine Deal

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump and House Republican leaders denounced a bipartisan Senate deal to impose new US border restrictions and unlock billions of dollars in Ukraine aid, endangering its prospects for passage. Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republican leaders in a joint statement Feb 05 declared the Senate compromise “a waste of time” and “dead on arrival” in the House. Trump condemned the deal in a social media post Feb 05 as “a great gift for Democrats and a Death Wish for The Republican Party.” He also flatly rejected tying immigration to foreign aid. In the Senate, deep divisions formed among Republicans, who plan to meet on the deal later Feb 05. Senator John Cornyn of Texas, a senior Republican from a border state, said Feb 05 he had “questions and serious concerns” about the border deal. GOP Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina demanded changes to the legislation, which would threaten to upset the hard-fought compromise. The head of the Senate GOP campaign arm, Steve Daines of Montana, said he will vote “no.” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and his Republican counterpart Mitch McConnell both back the $118.3 billion compromise, announced Feb 04 night. They’re planning a first procedural vote on the measure on Feb 07, but the rising GOP opposition and resistance from progressive Democrats like California Democrat Alex Padilla could sink it. Click here to read… [18]

Zelenskiy Replaces More Generals as Shakeup Expands

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced a new batch of top commanders, widening the military overhaul started last week in a bid to revive momentum in a war soon to enter its third year. Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, who was in charge of repelling Russia’s onslaught on the city of Kyiv during the early months of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion, was appointed on Feb 11 as commander of the Ukraine’s land forces. He takes the place of Oleksandr Syrskyi, recently named as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces. Zelenskiy also replaced the heads of the country’s territorial defense, assault troops, and united forces — the special command which oversees strategic operations in Ukraine as well as peacekeeping missions abroad. On Feb 10, Zelenskiy named a set of new deputies to the recently appointed chiefs of army and general staff. One of them, Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, will oversee unmanned combat systems and drones — the sphere which Zelenskiy and his new commander have identified as a key priority. Most of the latest appointees are officers with direct combat experience little known to the general public outside the military sphere. Ukraine’s much anticipated counteroffensive ran aground in 2023 against heavily entrenched Russian defense lines. Unrelenting attacks by Moscow’s forces, uncertainty over supplies of military aid from Western allies, a growing shortage of ammunition and troops, and increasing tension between the country’s President and the previous army chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi climaxed in last week’s major overhaul. Click here to read… [19]

Russia has no intention of attacking NATO – Putin

Russia has no intention of attacking NATO member states and will retaliate only if attacked first, President Vladimir Putin told American journalist Tucker Carlson in an interview aired on Feb 08. Western countries are “trying to intimidate their own population with an imaginary Russian threat,” Putin said. He added that “smart people understand perfectly well that that is false.” Carlson asked the president if he can “imagine a scenario where you send Russian troops to Poland.” Putin replied: “Only in one case: if there is an attack on Russia from Poland. Why? Because we have no interests in Poland, Latvia or any other [NATO member].” Asked if he has “territorial aims across the continent,” Putin said that “it is absolutely out of the question.” “You don’t need to be an analyst to understand that getting involved in a global war goes against common sense. A global war would bring all of humanity to the brink of destruction.” Putin further argued that Western governments are using “scare tactics” to convince their taxpayers to provide more money to “weaken Russia” in Ukraine and elsewhere. Moscow has repeatedly cited NATO’s continuing expansion eastward and its support for Kiev as one of the root causes of the current conflict in Ukraine. Click here to read… [20]

Myanmar military triggers conscription law under resistance pressure

Myanmar's military government on Feb 10 activated for the first time a decade-old conscription law that makes young men and women subject to at least two years of military service if called up, effective immediately. The announcement of the measure on state television amounts to a major, though tacit, admission that the army is struggling to contain the nationwide armed resistance against its rule. Under the 2010 People's Military Service Law, passed under a previous military government, males between the ages of 18 and 45 and females between 18 and 35 can be drafted into the armed forces for two years, extendable to five years during national emergencies. The current ruling military council, called the State Administration Council, came to power in 2021 after ousting the elected civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The law has been activated in the wake of the army's biggest setbacks since the countrywide conflict erupted after the takeover. A surprise offensive launched last October by an alliance of armed ethnic organization in less than three months captured a large swathe of territory in northeastern Myanmar along the Chinese border. The rout inspired resistance forces in other parts of the country to launch their own attacks. In recent weeks, fighting in the western state of Rakhine caused hundreds of state security personnel to flee into neighboring Bangladesh. Click here to read… [21]

North Korea hones cruise missile tech with 4 tests in 2 weeks

With four missile tests in two weeks, North Korea is accelerating its push for more precise cruise missiles with an eye on South Korean and U.S. military targets. Cruise missiles are generally harder to intercept than ballistic missiles. Pyongyang is believed to be broadcasting its latest developments in a bid to exert greater pressure on Washington and Seoul while showcasing its capabilities to Moscow, an increasingly important partner on military technology. North Korea fired cruise missiles eastward, to the Sea of Japan, on Jan. 28, while those launched on three other days were targeted westward, to the Yellow Sea, according to the South Korean military. On all four occasions, North Korea made its objectives known through state media. Pyongyang said it test-launched the Pulhwasal-3-31 strategic cruise missile on Jan. 24 and Jan. 28, and conducted a firing exercise for the Hwasal-2, a cruise missile it tested last year, on Jan. 30. On Feb 02, it tested what it called "super-large" warheads. Some believe the Pulhwasal-3-31 was so named to intimidate South Korea. In Korea, pul means fire and hwasal means arrow. The numbers are seen as a reference to the Hwasan-31, a small nuclear warhead North Korea unveiled last year. North Korea also released footage and images from the latest launches. One shows what is believed to be the Hwasal-2 flying close to the ground. Click here to read… [22]

Pakistan's election tainted by military meddling as ex-PM Sharif set to win

With 167 parties competing in national parliamentary and local legislative elections Feb 08, Pakistan's domestic media -- newspapers, TV and radio -- have been saturated with political coverage of the polls that will ultimately determine the country's new prime minister. One thing is missing, however: any mention of the country's most popular political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and its leader, the former star cricketer and prime minister Imran Khan. After falling out with Pakistan's powerful military in 2022, Khan was jailed last year on charges of illegally selling state gifts. He has disappeared from the airwaves and is disqualified from running in the election. Producers at Pakistani TV stations told Nikkei Asia the lack of coverage is not an accident. "We have been instructed not to provide any coverage [of] political activities of candidates backed by PTI in the elections," said a TV producer who gave his name as Mujtaba and requested anonymity for himself and his workplace. He was vague about where the order came from, though implied it had come from someone outside his organization. The media blackout, meanwhile, is possibly the lowest hurdle faced by PTI candidates in an election that has been stacked against them. Many candidates were disqualified in December when they registered their candidacy with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and were forced to sue in court to get on the ballot. Click here to read… [23]

Chinese spies hacked Dutch defense network last year, report says

Chinese state-backed cyber spies hacked into an internal computer network at the Dutch Defence Ministry last year, intelligence agencies in the Netherlands said in a rare report published on Feb 06. The agencies, known by their Dutch acronyms MIVD and AIVD, said the hackers had placed sophisticated malicious software, or malware, that cloaked its own activity inside a ministry network. "China uses this type of malware to conduct espionage against computer networks. The malware has been developed specifically for FortiGate devices, which are used by organizations as a firewall to protect their systems. The manufacturer Fortinet supplies this product worldwide," the agencies said in a joint statement. It is the first time the Netherlands has publicly attributed cyber espionage activity to China, as tensions surrounding national security grow between Beijing and The Hague. China's Embassy to the Netherlands did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Beijing routinely denies allegations of cyber espionage and says it opposes all forms of cyberattack. A Fortinet spokesperson also did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. Last April, AIVD said in an annual assessment that China posed the greatest threat to the economic security of the Netherlands, with ongoing espionage attempts targeting high-end technology companies and universities. A prime target is the semiconductor equipment maker ASML, based in the southern Dutch city of Veldhoven, which is the world's dominant supplier of lithography machines used to make computer chips. Click here to read… [24]

South Korea, Saudi Arabia sign agreement on defense cooperation

South Korea and Saudi Arabia on Feb 04 signed a memorandum of understanding to expand defense cooperation, Seoul's Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) said, as Seoul looks to ink further arms sales in the region. The agreement will see the two establish a joint committee to form a working group for weapons systems research and development as well as production to continue cooperation in defense, DAPA said in a press release on Feb 05. Defense minister Shin Won-sik, who was visiting Riyadh for the World Defense Show as part of a week-long trip to the Middle East, and his Saudi counterpart Khalid bin Salman Al Saud were present during the signing of the agreement, according to DAPA. A DAPA spokesperson did not share further details when asked about the agreement at a media briefing on Feb 05. South Korea is looking to boost sales to become one of the world's largest suppliers of weapons, despite stiff competition from other global arms exporters. Its arms sales jumped to $17 billion in 2022 from $7.25 billion the year before, data from the defense ministry showed. The country's weapons exports to the Middle East grew nearly tenfold between 2013 and 2022, according to the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Click here to read… [25]

South Korean president reiterates that Seoul will not seek its own nuclear deterrent

South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol reiterated that the country would not seek its own nuclear deterrent in the face of threats from nuclear-armed North Korea as he vowed further efforts to sharpen nuclear deterrence strategies with ally United States. In a pre-recorded interview with KBS television that aired Feb 07 night, Yoon insisted that South Korea clearly has the technology to quickly acquire nuclear weapons capabilities if it ever decides to do so. But taking that step isn’t a realistic option as it would ruin a trade-dependent economy, he said. “If we develop nuclear weapons, we will receive various economic sanctions like North Korea does now, and our economy will be dealt a serious blow,” Yoon said, while emphasizing Seoul’s commitment to the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Yoon, a conservative who took office in 2022, has made similar comments before as he pushed for stronger reassurances from Washington that it would swiftly and decisively use its nuclear capabilities to defend its ally in the event of a North Korean nuclear attack. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are at their highest point in years, as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continues to accelerate his country’s weapons tests while issuing provocative threats of nuclear conflict with the South. Click here to read… [26]

Wealthy Donors Continue to Pour Money Into Nikki Haley’s Long-Shot Presidential Bid

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley tapped both Wall Street and grassroots supporters to raise $16.5 million in January, her campaign said, giving her plenty of cash to continue her longshot bid for the Republican presidential nomination. The haul doubles the pace at which she raised money in the fourth quarter of 2023 but may not be sustainable. It is unclear how much of the money was raised before Haley came in behind former President Donald Trump in both the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. And she is trailing by 27-points in her home state of South Carolina, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Voters go to the polls there on Feb. 24. Still, she brought in $11.7 million from grassroots donors, including $5 million the week after coming in second in New Hampshire, the campaign said. She also attended higher-dollar fundraisers in New York and Miami, where she courted the Wall Street titans who have been backing her bid. Billionaires Stanley Druckenmiller, Henry Kravis, and Cliff Asness co-hosted a New York fundraiser Tuesday. And Haley attended fundraising events in Florida on Wednesday, including a roundtable in Miami hosted by Starwood Capital Group’s Barry Sternlicht alongside a group of supporters including hedge fund veteran Dan Och. Haley will fundraise this week in California. Click here to read… [27]

ECOWAS holds emergency session over Senegal crisis and member exits

West African foreign ministers are holding emergency talks on Feb 08 in Nigeria’s capital Abuja to discuss the political crisis in Senegal and disputes with military rulers in three other member states. The extraordinary session of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) follows President Macky Sall’s sudden decision to delay elections in Senegal, just a week after Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger declared they were quitting the bloc. The ECOWAS Mediation & Security Council said ministers would gather to “discuss current security and political issues in the region”. It remains unclear whether representatives from the four countries being discussed are attending. ECOWAS has urged Senegal – one of its most stable member states – to return to its election timetable, but critics have already questioned the group’s sway over increasingly defiant member states. The turmoil has also brought the almost 50-year-old bloc’s broader role into doubt, especially after its warning of military intervention in Niger last year fizzled out with no sign the country’s toppled president is closer to being restored. ECOWAS was formed in May 1975 in Lagos. The only other member to withdraw before now was Mauritania in 2000. Senegal’s troubles are a “new crisis ECOWAS doesn’t need”, Beninese political consultant Djidenou Steve Kpoton told the AFP news agency. Click here to read… [28]

Hamas proposes three-stage Gaza ceasefire plan – Reuters

The Hamas militant group has issued a counterproposal designed to bring about a permanent end to the conflict in Gaza, Reuters reported on Feb 07. The initiative is a response to a ceasefire plan issued last week by mediators from Egypt and Qatar, which was backed by the US and Israel. A draft of the Hamas plan seen by the news agency proposes a three-stage, 135-day ceasefire that would culminate in a cessation of hostilities and a withdrawal of Israeli forces. The first phase would see Hamas militants release the remaining Israeli hostages from Gaza in exchange for as many as 1,500 Palestinian prisoners detained in Israel, Reuters reported. Subsequent phases would involve a start to the reconstruction of the devastated Gaza territory, and an exchange of the remains of people killed in the four-month war. It also envisions a deal to permanently end the conflict by the end of the third, 45-day phase. The truce would also allow for the delivery of additional food, medical supplies, and other forms of aid to 2.3 million Gazans, many of whom have been displaced by the violence amid warnings of a deepening humanitarian crisis. The Israeli plan sent last month called for a six-week ceasefire and the gradual exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners. In a week-long truce in November, 110 Israeli hostages were released in exchange for 240 Palestinians being held in Israeli jails. Click here to read… [29]

Iran-Backed Groups Continue to Target American Bases as U.S. Plans Further Strikes

A strike near a U.S. base in Syria killed six members of a U.S.-allied militia Feb 05, the group said, despite the U.S. pounding Iran-allied militia sites with airstrikes over the weekend, underscoring the challenge Washington faces in its goal of keeping the conflict in the Middle East contained. A U.S. military official confirmed that there were fatalities from an attack on the al-Omar oil field, part of a complex that includes a U.S. base and is jointly controlled with the American military. The official declined to comment further. The Syrian Democratic Forces, a U.S.-allied Kurdish militia, said six of its fighters had died in a drone strike on al-Omar. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella of Iran-backed armed groups, claimed responsibility for the attack, and the SDF threatened to retaliate. Iran-aligned militias in Iraq and Syria have carried out more than 165 attacks on American bases with rockets, missiles, drones or mortars in recent months, according to the U.S., seeking to put pressure on Washington over its support for Israel and trying to force the American military to leave. Tensions with Iran-backed groups escalated with the deaths of three U.S. service members in a drone strike on Jan. 28 launched by an Iraqi militia on an American base in Jordan. Click here to read… [30]

Ukraine says it will produce more than 1 million drones this year

Ukraine will produce more than a million drones this year, according to its minister of digital transformation. Mykhailo Fedorov made the prediction in an interview on Feb 11 with state-owned news outlet Diia. Ukraine delivered 50 times more drones in December than it did in the whole of 2022, Fedorov said, according to a translation by news outlet Militarnyi. Fedorov also spoke to news agency Reuters last week, where he offered more details about Ukraine’s drone production capacity. He said Ukraine ramped up its drone production and delivery significantly in 2023, per the news agency. The government’s BRAVE1 initiative awarded US$2.5 million in grants to military IT businesses last year, Fedorov said, with the sum expected to increase about tenfold in 2024, Reuters reported. “We will fight to increase the financing even more,” Fedorov told the news agency. Fedorov went as far as saying that Kyiv had reached a “certain kind of parity” with Moscow in the development of long-range drones. This matters because Ukraine has been trying to ramp up its domestic production of drones to make up for a drop in Western aid and to fight off Russian forces. Ukraine has used drones to attack Russia’s oil and gas industry, blow up armoured columns and damage Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Click here to read… [31]

China’s Shipyards Are Ready for a Protracted War. America’s Aren’t.

China emerged as a global power by turning itself into the world’s factory floor. It is expanding that power, and its military might, with another striking industrial feat: becoming the world’s shipyard. More than half of the world’s commercial shipbuilding output came from China last year—making it the top global shipmaker by a wide margin. The once-prolific shipyards of the West that helped forge empires, expand trade and win wars have shriveled. Europe accounts for just 5% of the world’s output, while the U.S. contributes next to nothing. Most of what China doesn’t build comes from South Korea and Japan. “The scale [of China’s shipbuilding] is just almost hard to fathom,” said Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security whose research focuses on maritime competition. “The degree to which it dwarfs American shipbuilding is just unbelievable.” This shipbuilding empire is a symbol of China’s historic transformation from an inward-looking continental nation to a maritime power. But it is more than that. It is a pivotal strategic asset for Beijing as Chinese leader Xi Jinping tries to reshape the world order in peacetime and prepares to prevail over his nation’s rivals during war. Giant Chinese shipbuilding firms that crank out merchant ships for the world are often the same ones building warships for China’s navy. Click here to read… [32]

Health

Rio de Janeiro Declares Dengue Health Emergency Days Before Carnival

Rio de Janeiro on Feb 05 has declared a public health emergency because of an outbreak of mosquito-borne dengue fever, the city announced Feb 05, just days before Carnival celebrations kick off across Brazil. The outbreak wasn't expected to derail Carnival, which officially starts Feb 09 evening and runs until Feb. 14, but it has prompted a slew of special measures by the city in hopes of containing the illness. Rio city hall announced the opening of 10 care centers, the creation of an emergency operations center and the allocation of hospital beds for dengue patients. Authorities also will use “smoke cars” in regions with the highest incidence of cases, diffusing an insecticide in the air. Since the beginning of 2024, the municipality has registered more than 10,000 dengue cases. That is just under half of the total cases — 23,000 — recorded throughout all of 2023. The announcement comes as tourists and revelers are pouring into Rio to take part in street parties and attend the samba schools’ flamboyant parades. Among Rio state's operational plans for Carnival, presented by Gov. Cláudio Castro on Feb 04, is the “Against Dengue Every Day” campaign. That will entail the distribution of repellents, stickers, bandanas and hats with warnings about the disease to audiences at the Sambadrome, where a 15-second notice about the fight against the infection also will be shown. Click here to read… [33]