Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (01-07 January 2024)

Economic

US becomes world’s top LNG exporter – Reuters

The US emerged as the globe’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for the global market in 2023, Reuters reported on Jan 03, citing tanker tracking and government data. Australia came in second, while Qatar, which ranked first in 2022, saw its output drop by 1.9% and slid to third place. According to the report, US LNG exports hit monthly and annual records last month, with the country exporting 8.6 million metric tons in December alone to total 88.9 million metric tons in 2023, up 14.7% compared to 2022. According to US government data, Europe remained the foremost destination for US LNG exports last month, accounting for 5.43 million metric tons, or more than 60% of overall shipments. Nearly 70% of US LNG exports were destined for the region in November. The EU significantly increased its LNG imports last year, following the drop in pipeline gas flows from Russia, once its major supplier. This occurred amid Ukraine-related sanctions against Moscow and a sabotage of Russia’s Nord Stream pipelines in 2022, which made them inoperable. Meanwhile, according to earlier reports, despite Brussels’ drive to rid itself of Russian energy, the EU has been boosting imports of Russian LNG. In November, the country’s exports to the bloc hit a historic high at 1.75 million metric tons. Click here to read... [2]

Xi’s Solution for China’s Economy Risks Triggering New Trade War

As China’s property sector declines, President Xi Jinping needs to reshape the nation’s economic model to drive growth over the next decade. His government’s solution risks igniting a new wave of trade tensions across the globe. China’s leaders are pouring money into manufacturing as property-related activity, which once spurred about a fifth of the economy’s expansion, turned into a drag on growth in 2022. Part of that focus is what they call the “new three” growth drivers of electric vehicles, batteries and renewable energy, aiding the world’s de-carbonization push and fuelling demand for commodities such as copper and lithium. So far, the strategy is helping China avoid the recessions that hit Japan in the 1990s and the US in 2008 when their housing markets melted down: The world’s second-biggest economy is now growing at about 5% a year. Yet it’s also fuelling imbalances that are setting the stage for renewed global trade tensions between China and the developed world, as well as emerging economies that are pushing to reach the lower rungs of the industrialization ladder. The US and European Union have recently stepped up warnings on China’s overcapacity. Europe initiated a series of trade investigations, leading China last week to launch an anti-dumping probe into EU liquor products like brandy — a move analysts saw as targeted at France, the main backer of the bloc’s action on Chinese electric vehicle subsidies. Click here to read... [3]

Shipping giants divert vessels from Red Sea after missile strike

Two global shipping firms, Denmark’s AP Moller-Maersk and Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, have extended their decision to not allow their vessels pass through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, citing security risks, according to company statements. Maersk initially halted all transits through the waterway for 48 hours on Dec 31, a day after its Singapore-flagged containership Maersk Hangzhou was struck by a Houthi missile fired from Yemen. However, on Jan 02, the company announced that it will extend the pause to shipping in the area “until further notice” as it reviews security risks of sailing the waterway.“An investigation into the incident is ongoing, and we will continue to pause all cargo movement through the area while we further assess the constantly evolving situation,” Maersk said in its statement. The company had already halted shipping in the Red Sea in mid-December but resumed travel last week after the US and its allies launched Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG) in the region, aimed at ensuring safe passage. In its Jan 02 statement, Maersk said some of its vessels will be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. According to a shipping schedule published on the company's website late on Jan 01, it was forced to divert more than 100 vessels scheduled to use the route in the coming weeks. Click here to read... [4]

“Oil Five” Sovereign Wealth Funds Pass $4 Trillion Mark

The sovereign wealth funds of the Gulf Cooperation Council members topped $4 trillion last year, which was an all-time high. Called the “Oil Five”, the group of top sovereign wealth funds includes three entities from the United Arab Emirates, one from Saudi Arabia, and the Qatar Investment Authority. The five invested a total $75.6 billion last year, which was a decline on 2022 investments, the Khaleej Times reported, citing data from a report by Global SWF.The Saudi Public Investment Fund and the Qatar Investment Authority were the most active investors, accounting for the bulk of the five’s total, at some $68 billion. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund was also the biggest investor globally last year, deploying $31.6 billion across 49 deals. The amount was a 33% increase on 2022 and a record for any sovereign wealth fund. The total spend of sovereign wealth funds last year reached $123.8 billion. The five oil funds from the Gulf were the most active investors during the year. The increase in investments for the Gulf oil kingdoms’ sovereign wealth funds comes amid lower oil prices and also lower production for Saudi Arabia. Based on their assets under management, however, it appears the effect of the oil price rout last year will manifest with a delay. Click here to read... [5]

The Geopolitics of Gas: Turkmenistan's Westward Push

For Turkmenistan and its ambitions to export its vast natural gas reserves westward, Iran is a tantalizing but also potentially cheap, and quick, Plan B.Relying on a partner like Tehran, however, creates potentially profound complications. The possibility of falling prey to Western sanctions cannot be discounted. And Iran has at times proven an unreliable supplier. Turkmenistan is already sending gas to Iran, albeit as part of a swap arrangement with Azerbaijan. Two billion cubic meters of gas are piped into remote north-eastern areas of Iran that are in need of the fuel. And Iran then sends an equivalent amount to Azerbaijan. The result, if only in purely notional terms, is that Azerbaijan is a buyer of Turkmen gas. Tehran has been expanding pipeline capacity with a view of increasing annual Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan swap volumes to 5.5 billion cubic meters. The apparent success of this model has inspired more of the same. In November, Turkmen and Iraqi officials met in Ashgabat to discuss the prospect of a similar swap, of up to 9 billion cubic meters annually over a period of five years. Again, Iran would act as the go-between. The dream when contemplating sending gas to Europe has been to build the so-called trans-Caspian pipeline, or TCP, which would bridge Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan. This solution would cost upwards of $20 billion. Click here to read... [6]

Asia's data center landscape is red hot -- and increasingly complex

The rise of artificial intelligence is fuelling massive demand for data centers in Asia, but multinational companies face a dilemma when it comes to settling on locations for them. From an economic point of view, it makes sense to build a consolidated facility in one country that can serve multiple markets -- but governments in the region are increasingly restricting cross-border data flows. China and Vietnam in particular have tightened their data regulations in the name of national security. Although China's top internet regulator in September proposed waiving data export security assessments for certain activities that do not involve personal information or "important data," it did not say what qualifies as "important data." This lack of clarity has raised concerns among global businesses about what might happen if they try to transfer data out of the country. Meanwhile, Vietnam's first consolidated Personal Data Protection Decree (PDPD) took effect in July. It requires companies to prepare an impact assessment if they wish to transfer the personal data of Vietnamese citizens abroad. "Through August of [2023], we were scrambling to help clients navigate Vietnam's new security assessment process, which appears to have drawn some inspiration from China's similar process," said Mark Parsons, a Hong Kong-based lawyer who heads Hogan Lovells' Asia-Pacific region regulatory practice. Click here to read... [7]

China to sanction 5 U.S. manufacturers over arms sales to Taiwan

China will sanction five U.S. military manufacturers in response to the latest round of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Jan 07.U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are a frequent source of tension between Washington and Beijing. China views democratically governed Taiwan as its territory, a claim Taiwan's government rejects. The sanctions come ahead of Taiwan's Jan. 13 presidential and parliamentary elections, which China has cast as a choice between war and peace. The U.S. State Department last month approved $300 million sale of equipment to help maintain Taiwan's tactical information systems. The spokesperson said in a statement the recent arms sales "seriously undermine China's sovereignty and security interests, seriously jeopardize peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait." The companies to be sanctioned are BAE Systems Land and Armaments, Alliant Techsystems Operations, AeroVironment, Viasat and Data Link Solutions. China will freeze the assets of these companies and ban people or organizations in China from engaging them, the spokesperson said. The U.S. Embassy in Beijing did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Click here to read... [8]

South Korea records its first trade deficit with China in 31 years

South Korea recorded a trade deficit of $18 billion with China in 2023, marking its first such bilateral shortfall with the country in 31 years, according to preliminary trade data released on Jan 01. South Korean exports to China fell to $124.8 billion, down 20% from $155.7 billion in 2022, while imports from the neighbouring country came to $142.8 billion, dipping 8% from $154.5 billion. The larger drop in exports sent South Korea's trade with the world's second-largest economy into the red from a surplus of $1.2 billion the year before. In contrast, South Korea's annual exports to the U.S. increased 5% in 2023. Monthly shipments to the world's largest economy in the month of December, meanwhile, exceeded those to China for the first time in 20 years on the back of solid sales of cars, auto parts, and automotive batteries. Growing exports to the U.S. are also in sync with the diplomacy of President Yoon Suk Yeol that favours close ties with Washington. Responding to that political stance, major conglomerates such as Samsung, Hyundai Motor, LG, SK, and Lotte have been increasing their investments in the U.S. South Korea's total exports in 2023 stood at $632.7 billion, down 7% from the previous year as exports declined for the first time in three years. Imports also declined, falling 12% to $642.7 billion. Click here to read... [9]

Myanmar regime vows to hold 2024 census despite spike in clashes

Myanmar will conduct a census this year, the military government reiterated Jan 04, dismissing concerns that continued fighting in the country could scupper the count. Plans for a census in 2024 "are progressing," said Soe Win, deputy commander-in-chief of the military, at a ceremony in Naypyitaw marking the anniversary of Myanmar's independence. The military regime, which took control in February 2021, considers a census as a prerequisite for a general election. It had planned to hold a vote by August last year, but pushed back the timeline in response to protracted instability in Myanmar, including an ongoing conflict between ethnic groups and the military. "We need the census to complete the voter roll and a biometric database," Soe Win said, reading out a message from the regime's leader, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing. The regime will decide at the end of January whether to extend a state of emergency, which has been in place since the 2021 takeover. The Myanmar constitution requires a general election to be held within six months following the end of the state of emergency. If the census can be completed by the end of the year, the regime could move to lift the state of emergency and hold a general election. Still, instability in Myanmar could pose an obstacle. Click here to read... [10]

Kenyan farmers battle toxic legacy of locust plague three years on

In January 2020, one of the biggest locust plagues to hit the Horn of Africa in 70 years landed in Garissa, a remote town in north-eastern Kenya near the Somali border. The region is honeycombed with small-scale croplands growing mostly maize and an array of produce – tomatoes, watermelons, bananas, lemons – belonging to farmers such as Mohammed Adan. As millions of locusts descended, devouring all living flora in sight, Adan and his fellow farmers were horrified. This region is no stranger to locusts––the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) even has a designated Desert Locust Control Committee (DLCC) to mitigate periodic damage from locusts. Still, mayhem ensued during the plague. The FAO spearheaded a “Desert Locust” campaign with a budget of more than $230m, in partnership with the World Bank and World Food Programme. Together, they aided Kenya’s Ministry of Agriculture in spraying a cocktail of pesticides across 100,000 hectares (250,000 acres) of land, home to 26,650 households. Adan, responsible for a family of 11, was relieved to receive such support, as were his neighbours. After a rushed, impromptu workshop hosted by a government agricultural extension officer, where they learned how to mix the pesticides with water to fill knapsack sprayers, the farmers set off to save what was left of their crops. But the farmers say they were not briefed on what kind of chemicals they were given, nor provided with any protective gear. Click here to read... [11]

In 2024, Europe to hunt for new partners to offload asylum seekers

Eight years after the image of three-year-old Alan Kurdi lying facedown on a beach in Turkey shocked the world, pictures of asylum seekers’ lifeless bodies washed up on the coast of Italy’s Calabria region in February once again stirred global outrage. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded to the tragic shipwreck just metres away from the coast of Steccato di Cutro by promising to “redouble our efforts”. Yet as 2024 begins, activists and experts told Al Jazeera that 2023 has seen Europe reach for ever more drastic solutions to curb NGO search and rescue operations and outsource its border management to other nations. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimated at least 2,571 people died this year trying to cross the Mediterranean – one of the deadliest years ever. Since 2014, the United Nations agency has counted at least 28,320 men, women and children who lost their lives trying to reach Europe. “What is new is the popularity of the idea that you can externalise asylum processing,” said Camille Le Coz, associate director for Europe at the Migration Policy Institute. “That’s something we’re likely going to see more of moving forward despite shaky legal grounds.” At least 264,371 asylum seekers entered Europe by boat and land in 2023, according to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees – a 66 percent increase compared with the previous year and the highest figure since 2016. Click here to read... [12]

China, in search of new growth drivers, considers urban residency reforms

As it searches for new sources of growth to offset shortfalls beget by a shambling property market, China is pondering the consumption potential of rural migrants – a group so large it is more than double Japan’s entire population – though even a maximalist expansion of urban residency may only partly resolve the challenges the country presently faces. Compared to previous rounds of government intervention that boosted industrial productivity around the new millennium and turbocharged the purchase of urban housing in the 2010s, analysts warned a similar initiative taken now would have comparatively diminished impact, given current predispositions for belt-tightening among local authorities to control runaway debts. Changing the status of migrant workers would necessarily include alterations to the hukou, China’s system of household registration initially designed to control population flows. That arrangement, a legacy of an earlier era, has been singled out by some as a persistent source of distortion for the country’s economic fundamentals. Cai Fang, a prominent labour economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and an adviser to the central bank, has argued further reform to the system could unleash more than 2 trillion yuan (US$281.1 billion) in consumption. Even without an increase of incomes, he said, it would raise migrant workers’ spending power by 30 per cent because of improvements to their social safety net. Click here to read... [13]

China’s primary sector workforce sees first increase in decades as migrants back on the farm

Both the number and share of workers employed in China’s primary industries rose for the first time in two decades in 2022 – a trend that may continue, analysts said, absent a solid recovery in the manufacturing and services sectors. About 176.6 million people – 24.1 per cent of the nation’s total employed – were engaged in agriculture, fishing, forestry, mining and other activities involving the extraction of natural resources in 2022, according to the 2023 China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook. The data compendium was recently published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The same numbers stood at 170.7 million and 22.9 per cent in 2021. The number of employed people in the sector started to fall in 2003, and their proportion has been in steady decline since 1999. Experts said the rise may reflect a return of migrant workers to their rural hometowns amid strict pandemic controls and a bleak urban job market in 2022, and it may continue if other sectors do not compensate with a return to sustained growth. “It [shows] urban services sectors, as well as small and medium enterprises, both major job creators, have shrunk gravely,” said Wang Dan, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. The trend might endure in the near-term, she said, as slashed household consumption continues to cripple the service sector and manufacturing is unable to absorb surplus labour. Click here to read... [14]

Silicon Valley Startups Had Their Worst Funding Year Since 2019

The value of venture capital deals in the US last year fell to levels not seen since 2019, according to new year-end data highlighting startups’ chaotic 2023. Over the last 12 months, investors poured money into artificial intelligence startups, but the rest of the industry foundered. According to early data released by research firm PitchBook on Jan 04, venture capitalists invested $170.6 billion in the US in 2023, over an estimated roughly 15,000 deals. That deal value is down by about 30% from 2022. The VC industry also declined globally last year. Around the world, investors put $345.7 billion into startups, down 35% from what they spent last year and the lowest outlay since 2017. Venture capital is an influential part of the global business ecosystem. Bets from VCs helped nurture transformative companies including Amazon.com Inc., Google and OpenAI. How venture dollars are raised and invested has an outsize impact on growth and innovation. But spending has fallen precipitously since the pandemic boom times of 2021. “Everything is trying to find a balance,” said Kyle Stanford, venture capital analyst at PitchBook. Stanford said that the industry is still coming off recent years’ highs. Though VC dollars are typically only spent on companies that have a strong chance of becoming very large, there are currently about 54,000 venture-backed companies in the US, he said, a number he called “too many.” Click here to read... [15]

More EVs lose US tax credits including Tesla, Nissan, GM vehicles

Many electric vehicles lost eligibility for tax credits of up to $7,500 after new battery sourcing rules took effect on Monday, including the Nissan Leaf, Tesla Cybertruck All-Wheel Drive, some Tesla Model 3s and Chevrolet Blazer EV, the U.S. Treasury said. The Treasury issued guidelines in December detailing new battery sourcing requirements aimed at weaning the U.S. electric vehicle supply chain away from China. They took effect on Jan 01. The number of EV models qualifying for U.S. EV tax credits fell from 43 to 19. Those figures include different versions of the same vehicle type. Treasury said some manufacturers have yet to submit information on eligible vehicles, which could lead to changes in the list. Tesla did not immediately comment Monday but said on its website "Cyber truck is likely to qualify for the federal tax credit later in 2024." The new rules allow buyers to claim the tax credit of up to $7,500 at a participating dealership at the point of sale. The tax credit sets limits on vehicle price and buyer income to qualify. The Volkswagen ID.4, Tesla Model 3 Rear Wheel Drive, BMW X5 xDrive50e, Audi Q5 PHEV 55, Cadillac Lyriq and Ford E-Transit are among the vehicles that fell off the list of vehicles eligible for tax credits. Volkswagen said on Jan 01 it "is in the process of confirming eligibility for a federal EV tax credit for vehicles" after Jan. 1. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Xi urges Chinese envoys to create ‘diplomatic iron army’

Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged Chinese envoys to forge a “diplomatic iron army” loyal to the Communist Party “with a posture of readiness and a firm will to defy strong powers.” The speech marked a shift in tone after months of softer diplomacy when China sought foreign investment for its sagging economy, including in a carefully staged summit with U.S. President Joe Biden and dinner with American business leaders in November. “Dare to be good at struggle and to become defenders of the national interest. It is necessary to... resolutely safeguard the interests of national sovereignty, security and development with a posture of readiness and a firm will to defy strong powers,” Xi told Chinese ambassadors in Beijing, according to state broadcaster CCTV.Before the recent warming, Chinese diplomats had embraced a more confrontational rhetoric known as “wolf warrior” diplomacy, which marked a departure from the restraint that had long characterized Beijing’s engagement with the world. Despite some recent goodwill gestures towards Washington and several other nations, China has also engaged in an acrimonious dispute with the Philippines over a contested reef in the South China Sea and with Japan over its discharge of treated radioactive water from its wrecked Fukushima power plant. Click here to read... [17]

Xi Elevates China’s Ties with Record Number of Nations to Counter US

Chinese President Xi Jinping upgraded ties with a record number of countries last year as he seeks to rally the Global South to reshape the US-led world order. Beijing elevated the way it described ties with 17 countries and territories last year, most of them from the developing world, according to a Bloomberg analysis of statements issued by the foreign ministry. That’s a pace not seen during Xi’s first decade in office. It added Maldives to the list on Jan 10. While Washington has built a diplomacy strategy dependent on coalitions of mostly rich allies, Beijing is doing the opposite, wooing developing countries that make up the majority of the world’s population using aid, trade and investments. The geopolitical benefits are on display this week with Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s first state visit to China, breaking convention with previous Maldivian leaders and handing Xi a victory over regional rival India. “With the deepening of its strategic competition with the US, China is increasingly eager to solidify its partnership base with more countries,” said Yun Sun, a director of the China Program at Stimson Center. This is especially for nations that depend on China economically or have similar world views. Xi met with Muizzu on Jan 10 and vowed to bring China-Maldives relations to a new level. Click here to read... [18]

Islamic State Shows Wider Threat with Iran Bomb Attack

An attack that killed dozens of people in Iran this week showed the potency of Islamic State and its ability to inflame tensions in the Middle East and Central Asia, after years of setbacks in its former strongholds. Islamic State, which claimed responsibility for the suicide bombings, is a shell of its former presence in its heartland of Iraq and Syria, but its central leadership and thousands of fighters continue to operate there. The group represents a growing threat in West Africa, where it has seized significant territory in recent years. The Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan—Islamic State Khorasan, or ISIS-K, a branch that has demonstrated ambitions to attack in Europe—most likely carried out the Iran bombings, U.S. officials and some experts said. The U.S. identified ISIS-K as a terrorist organization in 2016, a designation Washington also applies to the original organization and to regional affiliates in Africa, the Philippines and Bangladesh. “ISIS-K does remain a viable terrorist threat,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Jan 04. U.S. intelligence has communications intercepts strongly indicating that ISIS-K was responsible for the attack, a U.S. official said Jan 05. The intercepts were earlier reported by Reuters.The bombings took place Jan 03 in the city of Kerman, at a commemoration of the death of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, an Iranian commander killed by the U.S. in Iraq in 2020. Click here to read... [19]

Quake in Japan revives the trauma of 2011 disasters

The powerful earthquake that shattered the peace of New Year’s Day in central Japan did not spur massive tsunamis like those that scoured the Pacific coast in 2011, killing nearly 20,000 people and forcing tens of thousands of people from their homes. The tsunamis that did roll in along the Sea of Japan, on Japan's western coast, were mostly just a few feet high, rather than waves up to 5 meters (15 feet) tall predicted in alerts issued just after the magnitude 7.6 quake struck on Jan 01 afternoon. But the alarms and evacuation orders, and the dozens of strong quakes that came before and after the main quake on Jan 01, summoned memories of the triple disasters nearly 13 years ago. As of Jan 03 afternoon, local officials said 64 people were confirmed killed in the quake that struck on the coast of the remote Noto peninsula, 300 kilometers (about 185 miles) northwest of Tokyo. Searchers were combing through rubble, a task lent urgency by forecasts for heavy rain that could trigger more landslides and collapses, racing against the clock to find survivors. Some were buried in landslides or trapped in houses whose roofs collapsed. Firefighters were using power saws to access people trapped in a small, 7-floor apartment building that fell sideways off its foundation. Click here to read... [20]

Iran deploys navy to Red Sea – state media

Iran’s Alborz destroyer crossed the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea on Jan 01, the country’s state-run IRNA and Tasnim news agencies have reported. The deployment followed a deadly encounter between US warships and Yemen’s Houthi militants in the waterway on Dec 31. The Iran-affiliated Shiite group has controlled large swaths of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa and the port of Al-Hudaydah, since an internal conflict flared up back in 2014. In November, the Houthis began attacking commercial ships passing through the Red Sea, which they believe to be Israeli-owned or headed for Israel. The militants claim to be acting in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza. According to IRNA’s report on Jan 01, the Alborz destroyer was deployed to the key waterway, which accounts for about 12% of all global trade, due to “heightening tensions.” On Dec 30 evening and Dec 31 morning, US destroyers, the USS Eisenhower and USS Gravely, responded to two consecutive distress calls by the Singapore-flagged container ship Maersk Hangzhou, which is owned and operated by Denmark. The second encounter saw several US helicopters open fire on four small boats manned by Houthis. Three were destroyed as a result, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a post on X (formerly Twitter). Click here to read... [21]

Israel Remains Divided Despite Show of Wartime Unity, Court Ruling Underscores

Israel’s Supreme Court ruling on Jan 01 invalidating a law that was at the center of a contentious judicial overhaul was a reminder of the underlying divisions in Israeli society put aside during the war in Gaza—tensions that could erupt once the conflict is over. The law—which was put forth by the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and would have curtailed the power of Israel’s courts—was divisive. It ignited one of the largest and most sustained protest movements Israel has seen, bringing hundreds of thousands of people to the streets over months. With the country now focused on the conflict in Gaza, which is approaching its fourth month, reaction to the ruling has been relatively muted. Divisions between Netanyahu and opposition parties are on the back burner for the moment. The prime minister currently heads a cross-party emergency government formed to lead the country during the war, which began following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas militants on southern Israel. But in the wake of the intelligence failure ahead of the Oct. 7 attack, Netanyahu’s popularity has plummeted in the polls while calls for his ouster have increased, raising the risk of snap elections once the war ends. Click here to read... [22]

North Korea Fires Artillery Barrage Toward Border Islands in the South

North Korea fired roughly 200 artillery shells near the western border islands of South Korea on Jan 05, reviving memories of prior violent clashes in the area as inter-Korean tensions escalate once again. The barrage of shells, launched from roughly 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. local time, landed in North Korean waters shy of the Northern Limit Line, a disputed inter-Korean maritime border, Seoul’s military said. No residents were injured at the Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong islands, which are located just miles from North Korea’s coastline. In response, Seoul’s military carried out live-fire drills from both islands on Jan 05 afternoon. Residents there were ordered to evacuate to shelters until the drills had concluded. North Korea’s military claimed the drills—involving 192 shells and 47 canons—didn’t threaten South Korea, even indirectly, according to a Jan 05 evening state-media report. The firing of shells represented a natural countermeasure to joint Washington-Seoul firing exercises held this week near the border. Any enemy military provocation, the North said, would be met with a “tough counteraction on an unprecedented level.” The barrage occurred during a particularly fractious moment in inter-Korean relations. At a year-end plenary speech, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said there would be a decisive policy change in relations with South Korea. Click here to read... [23]

Iran Says Prospect for Talks Over Nuclear Deal ‘Still Exists’

Iran said it is open to fresh talks around its nuclear program with world powers that had been overshadowed by the deadly war in Gaza. “The diplomatic environment to hold a new round of talks still exists,” Nasser Kanaani, a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry, said in a press conference in Tehran on Jan 01. “We have no problem with a new round of talks within the framework of our red lines.”Last month, Tehran suggested that efforts to revive a deal aimed at curbing its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief from nations such as the US had been eclipsed by the Israel-Hamas war that started on Oct. 7. Iran and Washington have engaged in a flurry of indirect talks since April 2021 to restore the deal after former US President Donald Trump abandoned the agreement in 2018. The US in October reached an informal understanding with Qatar to hold off distributing $6 billion in oil revenue that Iran was allowed to access under a prisoner exchange, as the Biden administration probed Tehran’s potential involvement in Hamas attack against Israel. Iran last month denied losing access to the funds. “The dynamics of sanctions-lifting negotiations can see ebbs and flows as a result of developments in the region,” Kanaani was cited as saying by the semi-official Mehr News Agency on Dec. 11. Click here to read... [24]

Bangladesh PM Extends Her Rule in Polls Shunned by Rivals

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina retained her title as the world’s longest serving female head of government after her party swept most of the parliament seats in an election boycotted by her opponents and voters. Hasina’s Awami League party won 223 of 299 seats for a simple parliament majority, according to unofficial results from the offices of the Election Commission. The election for one seat was postponed.The poll body has put the turnout at 41.8%, the second lowest since the country’s return to democracy in 1991. It’s a sharp drop from the 80% participation in polls in 2018, as voters heeded a campaign by the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party to shun the election and draw attention to the sweeping crackdown her government carried out in the run up to the polls. The vote was the culmination of a month long campaign beset by daily street protests, the jailing of Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus and viral videos of ruling party leaders pushing voters to cast ballots or risk losing government benefits. Dhaka was deserted with heavy security around voting centers and there were few reports of clashes between opposition supporters and police officials. In a sign the country was still on edge, Hasina, who is also the president of the Awami League, asked supporters not to organize rallies to celebrate the victory, according to party official Sayem Khan. Click here to read... [25]

South Korea politician stabbing adds to tension ahead of elections

Tensions ran high on Jan 02 as a crowd convened outside the entrance to an emergency room in Seoul where South Korea's most prominent opposition politician was airlifted after being stabbed in the neck. Groups of supporters jostled with news crews and YouTubers using selfie sticks to live stream broadcasts from the scene. Shouting matches intermittently broke out as police attempted to keep the crowds from spilling onto the road. Earlier in the day, left-leaning Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung was attacked by an unidentified assailant in the southern city of Busan. The incident occurred as Lee, 59, was speaking with reporters during an appearance at the proposed site of an airport. Footage from the scene showed a man approaching Lee while appearing to ask for an autograph, before suddenly stabbing him in the neck. The attacker was quickly wrestled to the ground and taken into police custody. Police said the perpetrator is a 67-year-old man surnamed Kim. They did not specify Kim's motive for attacking Lee, but say Kim admitted that committing murder was his intention. Party officials have said Lee is undergoing treatment; they have not given any indication that his injuries are life threatening. The attack comes at a sensitive time for Lee and the country's politics generally. Click here to read... [26]

Russia used North Korean missiles for Ukraine attacks and is seeking Iran deal, US says

US intelligence officials have determined that Russia has acquired ballistic missiles from North Korea and is seeking close-range ballistic missiles from Iran as Moscow struggles to replenish supplies for its war with Ukraine, the White House said. Recently declassified intelligence found that North Korea has provided Russia with ballistic missile launchers and several ballistic missiles, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Jan 04. Russian forces fired at least one of those ballistic missiles into Ukraine on December 30 and it landed in an open field in the Zaporizhzhia region, he said. Russia launched multiple North Korean ballistic missiles on Tuesday as part of an overnight attack, and the US was assessing the impact, he said. The missiles have a range of about 885km (550 miles). US intelligence officials believe that North Korea, in return for its arms support, wants Russia to provide it with aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armoured vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment and other advanced technologies. Kirby said that a Russia-Iran deal had not been completed but that the US “is concerned that Russia’s negotiations to acquire close range ballistic missiles from Iran are actively advancing”. The US intelligence finding supports South Korea’s assessment that North Korea has increased its cooperation with Moscow. Click here to read... [27]

US secretly prolongs military base deal with Qatar – CNN

Washington and Doha have quietly signed a deal to extend the presence of American troops at Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, CNN has reported, citing unnamed US officials. US forces will remain at the base, located in the desert southwest of Doha, for at least another ten years in line with the agreement, the broadcaster reported on Jan 03. Al Udeid, which has been the biggest US military installation in the Middle East since 2003, can host up to 10,000 servicemen. It is also used by the Qatari and British air forces. The deal, which hasn’t been announced publicly, was struck “at a time when Qatar has come under growing scrutiny for hosting senior Hamas leaders,” CNN stressed. Officials in Doha responded to criticism by reminding that the Palestinian armed group Hamas was only allowed to open a political office in Qatar in 2012 at the behest of then-US President Barack Obama. According to the broadcaster, the extension of the American presence at Al Udeid “highlights Washington’s reliance on the tiny Gulf country,” which played a key role in mediating the release of US captives held by Hamas. Washington has stood behind Israel amid its military operation in Gaza, launched in response to the October 7 Hamas attack on the country in which some 1,200 people were killed and 240 others taken hostage. Click here to read... [28]

Ambiguous Ethiopia port deal fuels uncertainty over Somaliland statehood

On Jan 01, an agreement signed in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Muse Bihi Abdi of the breakaway republic of Somaliland preceded a shocking announcement that has already set the tone for interstate relations in the Horn of Africa this year. The memorandum of understanding was for the leasing of 20km (12 miles) of Somaliland’s Sea coast to landlocked Ethiopia. In exchange, Somaliland will receive shares in its neighbour’s flagship carrier, Ethiopian Airlines – and receive formal recognition as a sovereign state. International recognition has been a long-sought goal for Somaliland, a region in northern Somalia that has enjoyed de facto independence since 1991. But the groundbreaking agreement has created shockwaves in the region and fury in Somalia, which views it as a hostile violation of Somalia’s sovereignty.“As a government, we have condemned and rejected the illegal infringement of Ethiopia into our national sovereignty and territorial integrity yesterday,” Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said in a statement on X shortly after convening an emergency cabinet session on Jan 02. “Not an inch of Somalia can or will be signed away by anybody.”In Ethiopia, where for much of 2023 the government stressed the economic need for a seaport and even subtly hinted at possibly invading Eritrea for access to the Red Sea, the deal is being portrayed as a victory. Click here to read... [29]

China’s Xinjiang region says all new religious buildings must ‘reflect Chinese characteristics’

China’s Xinjiang region has announced a new set of religious rules that say all new places of worship must reflect “Chinese characteristics and style”. The far-western region is home to large numbers of the mainly Muslim Uygur majority, and the regulations say specifically that any mosque renovations that would change the existing layout or functions must be approved by the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region authorities. The revised version of the region’s regulations on the management of religious affairs was announced on Jan 04 by the official Xinjiang Daily newspaper. The changes will come into force in February. The rules state: “Newly built, renovated, expanded or rebuilt religious venues should reflect Chinese characteristics and culture in aspects such as architecture, sculpture, paintings [and] decorations.” They also say for the first time that interpretations of religious doctrine must “meet the requirements of contemporary China’s development and China’s outstanding traditional culture”. The new rules also contain fewer references to “extremism” and “terrorism” compared with the previous version issued in 2014, but still emphasise the need to combat “separatism”. China has been accused of systemic human rights violations against the region’s minorities, including the extensive use of re-education camps and forced labour, as well as tearing down large mosques and other Muslim sites. Click here to read... [30]

Western diplomats seek to prevent Gaza spillover after 3 months of war

Top US and European diplomats urged leaders in the Middle East on Jan 07 to keep the Gaza war from spreading across the region, but three months into the conflict, more bloodshed underlined the challenge as Israel presses ahead with its offensive. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the European Union’s top diplomat, foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, were on separate trips to the region to try to quell spillover from the war into Lebanon, the West Bank and Red Sea shipping routes, where Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have said they will keep up attacks until Israel halts its campaign in the Palestinian enclave. “We have an intense focus on preventing this conflict from spreading,” Blinken said at the onset of his trip. He was in Jordan and Qatar on Jan 07 and will later travel to Israel, the West Bank, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Jordan’s King Abdullah urged Blinken to use Washington’s influence over Israel to press it for an immediate ceasefire, a palace statement said, warning him of the “catastrophic repercussions” of Israel’s continued military campaign.Despite global concern over the death and destruction in Gaza and widespread calls for a ceasefire, Israeli public opinion remains firmly behind the operation aimed at wiping out the Hamas group that rules Gaza, although support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fallen sharply. Click here to read... [31]

NATO to buy 1,000 Patriot missiles in face of Russia threat

NATO members in Europe have signed a contract for up to 1,000 Patriot missiles to bolster air defences in the face of the threat from Russia, the alliance said Jan 03. The announcement of the contract, estimated to be worth $5.5 billion, comes as Moscow has unleashed repeated barrages of deadly missile and drone strikes against Ukraine in recent days.NATO's procurement agency said the deal agreed by an initial group of countries including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain would see Patriot missile production stepped up in Europe. Alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg welcomed the "timely announcement to invest in up to 1,000 new Patriot air defense missiles to bolster the alliance's security". "Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians, cities and towns show how important modern air defences are. Scaling-up ammunition production is key for Ukraine's security and for ours," Stoltenberg said in a statement.NATO allies including the United States and Germany have sent U.S.-made Patriot systems to Ukraine where they have been used to shoot down attacks by Russia's hypersonic missiles. But the deliveries of the missiles to Kyiv have sapped Western stocks and forced Washington to turn to allies such as Japan to help replenish inventories. The NATO Support and Procurement Agency said the new contract would see a missile production facility set up in Germany by a joint venture between Germany's MBDA and Raytheon, part of the U.S. group RTX. Click here to read... [32]

Health

‘Blood for money’: The patients forced to turn to racketeers in Nigeria

With a population of 200 million people, Nigeria requires an estimated 1.8 million units of blood each year for patients who have been in accidents, undergo surgery and need it to treat conditions such as anaemia and other genetic blood disorders. However, each year, only about 500,000 pints (236,600 litres) of blood are collected through official channels. Nigerians are often reluctant to give blood because of beliefs that donating it will make them sick or will weaken men’s libidos. The National Blood Transfusion Commission faces other challenges besides low supplies. Lack of funding is a major problem, Amedu Omale, the commission’s former director general, told Al Jazeera shortly before he retired in August.He said it will cost an estimated $15m to reform the system but it has received only $50,000 from the government since its creation in 2021 by the National Assembly. Before the commission, Nigeria’s blood service was run by the National Blood Transfusion Service, which was created in 1990 and was merely a task force under the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare without much decision-making power. Al Jazeera contacted the ministry for comment but received no reply. A spokesman for the National Blood Transfusion Commission told Al Jazeera that after the agency was established, the government quickly became preoccupied with the COVID-19 pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis but the commission hopes to conduct its own fundraising drives in 2024. Click here to read... [33]