Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (06-12 November 2023)

Economic

Australian and Chinese leaders talk pandas and wine as ties improve despite disagreements

The leaders of Australia and China joked about the relative cuteness of pandas and Tasmanian devils on 06 Nov in a largely symbolic meeting that reflected the ongoing upswing in relations between the two countries after several years of acrimony and division. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is making the first visit by an Australian leader to China in seven years in a sign of both how low relations fell and how they have begun to stabilize. He and Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed the gradual improvement in ties in the past year and emphasized the importance of engaging with each other despite differences on issues such as defence. China, a major market for Australia, has lifted some trade restrictions on Australian products since the two leaders first met in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022. “The progress we have made in advancing our relationship over that time has been unquestionably very positive,” Albanese said in opening remarks to Xi before the media. “Trade is flowing more freely to the benefit of both countries.” Xi said that both sides had resumed exchanges of views and worked out some problems. “The China-Australia relationship has embarked on the right path of improvement and development,” Xi said. “I’m heartened to see that.” Click here to read… [2]

China aims to cut Belt and Road distressed debt exposure, report says

More than half of China's $1.1 trillion of loans to low- and middle-income countries have entered their principal repayment periods, a new study found, prompting a reboot by Beijing to reduce exposure to distressed debt. The report published on Nov 07 by AidData, a research lab at U.S. University William & Mary, comes after Beijing pledged last month to promote "small yet smart" projects as its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) marked its tenth anniversary. About 55% of outstanding debt owed by developing nations -- including principal but excluding interest -- has entered principal repayment periods and the figure could increase to 75% by 2030, the report said."Beijing is navigating an unfamiliar and uncomfortable role as the world's largest official debt collector," AidData said, adding that some 80% of the lending involved countries in financial distress. The report was compiled from AidData's granular dataset of international development finance from China, which covered over 20,000 projects across 165 low- and middle-income countries financed with grants and loans over a 22-year period. China has not revealed the total debt owed by BRI participants, which spanned more than 150 nations and 30 international organizations as of June 2023. While these countries have benefited from infrastructure projects, some such as those in the Maldives and Sri Lanka have fallen into debt distress. Click here to read… [3]

China tightens rare-earth export curbs amid tension with U.S.

China will tighten export controls on rare earths, requiring exporters to report rare-earth types and their export destinations, Beijing announced Nov 07, against a backdrop of domestic calls for a response to stricter limits on U.S. semiconductor exports to China. The new restrictions are set to run through the end of October in 2025. Observers say China's move to tighten its grip over the strategic materials may be a negotiating tactic ahead of a planned November summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart, Joe Biden. China's commerce department announced that it had added rare earths, including compounds and alloys, to its list of mineral resources and other items requiring disclosure of information such as material type and export destinations. China accounts for 70% of the world's output of rare earths, which are essential for the manufacture of electric vehicles and some weapons, including missiles. The U.S., which has developed its own mines for some critical minerals, has risen to become the world's second-largest producer. But it lacks sufficient smelting capacity, forcing it to export raw materials to China for processing before re-importing them. China slashed rare earth exports to Japan in 2010 when the two countries were at loggerheads over the Senkaku Islands, which Tokyo controls but China also claims and calls Diaoyu. Click here to read… [4]

U.S. looks to postpone IPEF talks on digital trade rules

The U.S. wants to postpone Indo-Pacific Economic Framework talks on high-standard digital rules, Nikkei has learned, on concerns that Congress will criticize them for benefiting giant tech companies. Ministers from the 14 IPEF nations gather Oct. 13 for a two-day meeting in San Francisco. But as of Nov 07, Washington has told other members that it intends to put off discussions on standards governing digital trade. The American reluctance to discuss the specifics of a digital pact comes amid mounting bipartisan misgivings in Congress directed toward the tech industry. "Many Democrats and Republicans are critical of large digital firms," said David Boling, director for Japan and Asian trade at Eurasia Group and a former deputy assistant U.S. trade representative. "This domestic political climate is affecting the U.S.'s position in international trade negotiations. The U.S. is now unwilling to promote international trade policies that help large digital firms." President Joe Biden launched the idea of the IPEF to counter Chinese influence in October 2021, and now has members including Japan, South Korea, India and Indonesia. But unlike conventional economic partnerships, the IPEF does not deal with abolishing or reducing tariffs. Click here to read… [5]

How China Became the World’s Top Development Financier

When Xi Jinping celebrated a decade of Beijing-funded global development last month, he said the effort has focused on “on enhancing connectivity.” New figures show just how closely China has linked itself to other nations. China is the world’s No. 1 source of international development finance, with some $1.34 trillion in loans and grants disbursed over 22 years for 20,985 projects in 165 low- and middle-income nations, according to a compendium published Nov 06. The research lab behind it, AidData at the Williamsburg, Va. university William and Mary, aims to produce the most authoritative database of China’s development-finance work by locating loan documents and other firsthand material from the borrowing governments themselves and other sources, information Beijing tends to obfuscate. AidData concludes that the flip side of China’s active lending is that it has emerged as the world’s largest official debt collector, one now both firefighting problems and future-proofing its program. A separate Rand Corp. study based on AidData numbers and other sources estimates that in the period it studied, China’s state-run banks and companies channelled nearly six times as much money into projects as the U.S. allocated. Click here to read… [6]

Chasing deals, Taiwan signs new trade partnership with Britain

Taiwan and Britain signed an Enhanced Trade Partnership on Nov 08 that Taipei hopes will further boost its case to join a major pan-Pacific free trade pact and bolster the island's ties with other European states. Taiwan views Britain as an important democratic partner despite the lack of formal ties, noting its concern over stepped-up Chinese military activities near the island, which Beijing views as its own territory, and its support for Taiwan's participation in global bodies such as the World Health Organization. Because of its diplomatic isolation and pressure from China, chip powerhouse Taiwan has few formal foreign trade agreements, though it is a member of the World Trade Organization and has free trade agreements with Singapore and New Zealand. Taiwan's top trade negotiator, John Deng, said Taiwan and Britain's economies were complementary and the deal would "enhance the confidence of other countries in the world to interact with us", according to a statement from his office. The agreement would serve as a model for other European countries to improve their trade ties with Taiwan, the island's Office of Trade Negotiations said. Taiwan has long urged the European Union, which Britain left in 2020, to sign an investment agreement. Click here to read… [7]

Russia suspends nuclear decommissioning pact with Japan--document

Russia has suspended a cooperation agreement with Japan on the decommissioning of Russian nuclear weapons, according to a government document made public on Nov 09 night. The document, posted on the Russian government’s official online portal, showed that Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin had signed an order suspending the 1993 agreement on Nov 07. It did not give a reason for the decision but said the Russian foreign ministry would inform Japan about the move. Russia’s relations with Japan have deteriorated sharply since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine in February last year after Tokyo joined Western countries by imposing punitive sanctions. Russia agreed in 1993 that its Vladivostok-based Pacific Fleet would stop dumping liquid radioactive waste in the Sea of Japan but asked richer countries to help it process the waste for underground burial. Under the suspended agreement with Japan, Tokyo helped decommission weapons, including dismantling nuclear submarines. But Japanese media reported that the work had stalled as Moscow has stopped sending the necessary data to Tokyo. Click here to read… [8]

SoftBank’s WeWork, once most valuable U.S. start-up, succumbs to bankruptcy

WeWork, the SoftBank Group-backed start-up whose meteoric rise and fall reshaped the office sector globally, sought U.S. bankruptcy protection on Nov 06 after its bets on companies using more of its office-sharing space soured. The move represents an admission by SoftBank, the Japanese technology group that owns about 60% of WeWork and has invested billions of dollars in its turnaround that the company cannot survive unless it renegotiates its pricey leases in bankruptcy. A WeWork spokesperson said about 92% of the company’s lenders had agreed to convert their secured debt into equity under a restructuring support agreement, wiping out about $3 billion of debt. The company, which also intends to file recognition proceedings in Canada, said it expected to have the financial liquidity to continue business normally and that its locations outside of the U.S. and Canada, as well as its franchisees around the world, were not affected by these proceedings. WeWork had office space available at 777 locations worldwide as of the end of June. SoftBank said it believed WeWork’s restructuring support agreement was the appropriate action for the company to reorganize its business and emerge from Chapter 11 proceedings. “SoftBank will continue to act in the best long-term interests of our investors,” the Japanese company said in a statement. Click here to read… [9]

South Korea’s Yoon, Japan’s Kishida to attend tech roundtable on Nov. 17

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol plans to attend a roundtable on technological cooperation with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at Stanford University on Nov. 17, Yoon’s office said on Nov 10.The two leaders will attend the event while they are in the United States for a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member states in San Francisco next week, Yoon’s office said in a statement. They are expected to discuss technology cooperation between the two countries as well as three-way cooperation with the United States, it said. Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported this week that Kishida was expected to stress the importance of cooperating on the sourcing of semiconductors and strategic minerals, and on developing artificial intelligence technology. Yoon has made it a priority to mend ties with Japan since taking office in May 2022, and to restore trilateral security cooperation with the United States as North Korea ramps up its weapons programs and openly threatens the South. This year, Yoon visited Japan and pledged at a summit with Kishida to turn the page on years of animosity, as Tokyo lifted four years of export curbs on key high-tech materials. In a controversial move at home, Yoon had pushed ahead with a plan to compensate Korean victims of forced labour under Japan’s 1941-45 occupation, seeking to end a dispute that stood in the way of closer ties between the neighbors. Click here to read… [10]

Despite New Talks, Iraqi Kurdish Oil Not Close To Resuming Exports

Iraqi federal government officials have met with the Kurdistan region’s petroleum association to discuss the resumption of KRG crude flows through the Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey, which has been offline since March, removing some 400,000 bdp from the market. According to Reuters, this is the first time Baghdad has met with representatives of the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) on the issue; however, no agreement was reached. Technically, Kurdish oil flows to Turkey should be able to resume since Turkey reopened the pipeline earlier in October. Despite this, there has been no forward movement and the real struggle now remains between the Iraqi federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Foreign oil companies operating in the KRG are increasingly becoming caught up in the political feud between Baghdad and Erbil. Highlighting the challenges of this struggle for control of Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil, on Nov 06, the KRG’s Ministry of Natural Resources warned UAE-based Dana gas, which operates in Kurdistan, of making any agreements with the Iraqi federal government to transport gas without its permission."According to the contract with Dana Gas, the company is not allowed to transport gas from Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) fields to any other place without the approval of the Kurdistan Regional Government," the ministry said in a statement on Nov 06, as reported by VOA. Click here to read… [11]

US debt interest bill tops $1 trillion a year – Bloomberg

US interest payments on its national debt are estimated to have surged above $1 trillion on an annualized basis as of the end of October, according to a Bloomberg report this week. The calculations were based on US Treasury data, which discloses the government’s monthly outstanding debt balances and the average sum of interest it pays. The annualized cost of debt has doubled in the past 19 months as rising interest rates have made borrowing more expensive and represented 15.9% of the entire federal budget for fiscal year 2022 as of last month, the outlet said. “This high proportion of interest payments as a share of federal spending has precedent, as the portion before 2000 was over 14% in most years,” Bloomberg analysts wrote in a note. “The challenge for the government is tempering mandatory spending and trying to reduce the need to issue more debt. That’s the reason we see interest payments climbing even though we forecast lower Treasury yields.” Concerns are mounting over US fiscal policy amid massive government borrowing and soaring interest payments on the debt pile, the outlet noted. The worsening dynamics already led Fitch Ratings agency to downgrade US government debt in August. Click here to read… [12]

Russia experiencing shortage of industrial workers – media

The Russian labour market is dealing with an acute shortage of skilled industrial workers available for shift work, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported on Nov 10, citing a study by the recruitment agency Head Hunter. The most severe deficit was recorded in Russia's republic of Bashkortostan, which had previously been seen as a major workforce supplier for other regions of the country, with 6% of such positions currently vacant. The ranking also placed the Krasnoyarsk and Irkutsk Regions (5% of vacancies unfilled), as well as the Novosibirsk and Omsk Regions (4% each) among the top five regions hit by the shortage of industrial staff. The labour category encompasses workers in sectors such as oil and gas and mining, and often involves long hours in remote locations. Average salaries for such jobs in Russia range from 150,000 to 200,000 rubles ($1,600-$2,200) per month, according to Head Hunter. Analysts have attributed the shortage to low birth rates in the 1990s and early 2000s, the departure of highly qualified personnel abroad, and the partial military mobilization conducted in September last year to beef up the military amid the Ukraine conflict. According to the study, no regions of Russia currently have an excess of vacant positions in industrial shift work. Click here to read… [13]

Meta Strikes Deal to Return to China After 14 Years

Meta Platforms has struck a preliminary deal to sell a new, lower-priced version of its virtual-reality headset in China, regaining a foothold among consumers in the country 14 years after Facebook was shut out. The agreement with Tencent Holdings will make the world’s largest videogame company the exclusive seller of Meta’s headsets in China, people familiar with the matter said, offering the U.S. technology giant a major new market as it looks to boost tepid global demand for its niche gear. Tencent will start selling the headset beginning late 2024, with the two companies reaching a deal after about a year of negotiations. The deal is provisional and details are subject to change. It isn’t clear whether Tencent needs to seek formal government approval for introducing Meta’s device and offering VR content on the platform—as it does for the Nintendo Switch and conventional videogames—since the country hasn’t issued rules for VR yet. Beijing has tightened regulations for videogames and other digital content, which could create hurdles for the deal. Meta plans to use lenses in the headset that are cheaper than those in its most recent model, the Quest 3. This more-affordable version will also be sold in other markets, people familiar with the matter said. Click here to read… [14]

EU agrees rules to secure critical raw materials amid race with China and US

European Union countries and lawmakers at the European Parliament on Nov 13 clinched a deal on rules to secure the bloc’s supply of critical raw materials ranging from aluminium to lithium, amid a race with the US and China. The European Commission proposed the Critical Raw Materials Act in March to ensure the EU’s access to a secure, affordable and sustainable supply of raw materials crucial to the digital industry, aerospace and defence sectors, and the green energy push. The draft rules needed to be thrashed out with EU countries and lawmakers before they could become legislation. Both sides agreed the final details on Nov 13 said Spain, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, on social media platform X, formerly Twitter. The agreed rules set targets for the region to mine 10 per cent of the critical raw materials it consumes, such as lithium, and for the first time copper and nickel, with recycling adding a further 25 per cent. They also set out a list of 34 critical raw materials and 17 strategic raw materials. Large companies exposed to shortages of strategic raw materials in strategic technologies, such as battery manufacturers, hydrogen producers and renewable energy generators, will be required to do a regular risk assessment of their supply chain of critical raw materials. Click here to read… [15]

Switzerland Takes Crucial Step to Start Talks on New EU Deal

Switzerland is preparing to start talks on a new relationship with the European Union, more than two years after pulling the plug on previous negotiations. The government will put together a negotiating mandate and will decide by the end of the year whether to adopt it, it said in a statement Nov 08. The decision follows months of exploratory work between Swiss and EU officials that covered contested issues such as the freedom of movement. The EU wants a comprehensive treaty which underpins and plugs holes in the myriad of sectoral agreements currently in place. After Switzerland left negotiations about such an agreement in 2021, it now aims for a “package deal” incorporating different subjects. Even if Switzerland finds a solution this time, any deal would still likely have to pass a national vote. Already, some groups, including unions and the right-wing People’s Party, are pushing back against any concessions that could erode Swiss wages or increase immigration. According to the Switzerland, the following topics were part of the exploratory talks and are intended to be part of the package: new agreements on electricity, food safety and health, participation in EU programs (in particular research funding program Horizon Europe), etc. Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

Taiwan waiting for U.S. F-16s and tanks in $19bn arms sale backlog

Taiwan's backlog of weapons orders from the U.S., its largest foreign supplier, has reached about $19.2 billion; raising concerns about how prepared the island is for a cross-strait crisis. One of the biggest items on the list is an $8 billion order for the improved Block 70 variation of the F-16 fighter jet, the study by the Washington-based libertarian Cato Institute shows. Under then-President Donald Trump in 2019, the U.S. approved the sale of 66 jets to Taiwan to help it respond to the military threat from China. Deliveries were supposed to begin in 2023, but have been pushed back to 2024. In the past three years, China has sent more than 4,000 fighter jets, drones and other aircraft into Taiwan's air defence identification zone, according to Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense. On Nov 07 and Nov 08, three J-16 fighter jets, the workhorse of China's air force, entered the zone. On each occasion, Taiwan scrambles aircraft, putting extra mileage on its F-16 fleet."Compared to the Chinese military, Taiwan's number of aircraft is limited, and they are subject to a lot of wear and tear. Without updates, accidents may occur," a former Taiwanese military official said. Another order from 2019, 108 M1A2 Abrams tanks, also have yet to be delivered. The tanks are expected to play a crucial role in repelling a potential Chinese invasion by firing from mountain positions. Click here to read… [17]

U.S., South Korea close ranks on common global issues during Blinken visit

The United States and South Korea closed ranks behind common approaches to North Korea, Russia and China on Nov 09, vowing to continue to support Ukraine against Russia’s invasion and boosting humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians in Gaza caught in Israel’s war against Hamas. In talks with South Korea’s leadership, including President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the growing threat posed by North Korea and its alleged provision of military equipment and munitions to Russia to help it wage war on Ukraine, the State Department said. They also spoke of the importance of U.S.-South Korea cooperation on global challenges, including China’s assertiveness and the instability in the Middle East. “They shared concerns about the DPRK’s provocations in the region and strongly condemned the provision of military equipment and munitions by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea to the Russian Federation for use in its war against Ukraine,” the State Department said of Blinken’s meeting with Yoon, referring to North Korea by its formal name. The Blinken-Yoon meeting also covered improving relations between South Korea and Japan as well as the importance of three-way cooperation between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul, the State Department said, Click here to read… [18]

Myanmar resistance claims first capture of a district capital from the military government

Armed resistance groups fighting Myanmar’s military government seized a district capital in the north Nov 06 after taking state offices and a police station in a four-day offensive, according to residents, the country’s major opposition coalition and media reports. Kawlin in Sagaing region is the first administrative capital seized by the resistance forces in continuing strife since the army seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. Sagaing has been a stronghold of armed resistance to the army, which has responded with major offensives using ground troops supported by artillery and air strikes, burning down villages and driving hundreds of thousands of people from their homes. Loosely organized resistance groups opposed to army rule, known as the People’s Defense Force, or PDF, have sprung up around the country since the army’s takeover. They have made alliances with well-established armed ethnic minority groups such as the Kachin and Karen, who have been fighting in border areas for greater autonomy from the central government for more than half a century. Kawlin, which is about 200 kilometers (125 miles) north of Mandalay, the country’s second biggest city, is the principal town of Kawlin district. Clashes began there at dawn on Nov 03 with coordinated attacks by a combined force of at least three local resistance groups including the Kawlin People’s Defense Force, according to reports posted online by media groups sympathetic to the resistance struggle. Click here to read… [19]

Violence in Sudan ‘verging on pure evil’, UN warns

Violence against civilians in Sudan is “verging on pure evil”, a senior United Nations official has warned, after nearly seven months of war has left a wave of destruction with at least half the population in need of humanitarian aid. “We continue to receive unrelenting and appalling reports of sexual and gender-based violence and forced disappearance, arbitrary detentions and grave violations of human and children’s rights,” Clementine Nkweta-Salami, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Sudan, told a news conference on Nov 10. “What is happening is verging on pure evil. The protection of civilians continues to be of major concern,” she said. Since the civil war escalated between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April, nearly six million people have been uprooted from their country or have been internally displaced. Nkweta-Salami added that some 25 million people need humanitarian help and said that more than more than 70 percent of health facilities in the conflict areas were now out of service, resulting in outbreaks of cholera, dengue, malaria and measles, and high levels of malnutrition among children. The UN is targeting about 12 million people for aid and has appealed for another $2.6bn. Click here to read… [20]

US nuclear sub offers show of force in the Middle East

The US Navy has dispatched a guided-missile submarine to the Middle East. The posting was revealed by the military in an announcement late on Nov 05. The unusual revelation regarding the location of the ship, which can launch nuclear missiles, suggests a show of force intended to try to contain regional tensions amid the Israel-Hamas war. “On November 5, 2023, an Ohio-class submarine arrived in the US Central Command area of responsibility”, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on the social media platform X, formerly Twitter. The Central Command area includes the Middle East. The post by the Department of Defence unit appeared to show an image of the submarine moving through the Suez Canal. Since the war broke out on October 7 between Hamas and Israel, the United States’ closest regional ally, Washington has moved significant military assets to the region, including two aircraft carriers and extensive fighter aircraft. It has also announced the deployment of around 1,000 American soldiers, and the engagement of an unspecified number of special operations commandos, who are “advising” the Israeli military in their Gaza operations. In addition, Washington has taken steps to beef up the defences of its Gulf allies, with a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defence system destined for Saudi Arabia and Patriot surface-to-air missile systems to be sent to Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, The Wall Street Journal reported. Click here to read… [21]

European Commission to Assess 10 Countries For EU Membership

The European Commission's long-awaited annual enlargement report is set to be released on November 8. The release has been constantly postponed, as the report was originally expected to come out in early October. The delay was due to a number of factors. Firstly, there was a wish from EU member states that the enlargement report wouldn't be released ahead of the EU summit in Brussels on October 26-27, with fears that it could "hijack" discussions on other issues such as the bloc's budget and migration. Secondly, the enlargement report is huge, with assessments on 10 countries -- Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine. There is a lot of ground to cover and EU member states -- the ultimate arbiters in the enlargement process -- have to study the documents before making a decision. Member states will vote on the enlargement questions at the EU's General Affairs Council, which brings together the bloc's foreign ministers, in Brussels on December 12. A potential decision will then need to be rubber-stamped at the EU summit in Brussels two days later. Finally, the enlargement report has been delayed partly because the European Commission has been generous with the time it has allowed several countries to fulfill certain conditions and reforms that Brussels has set for the EU hopefuls. Click here to read… [22]

Saudi Minister Says Israel Talks Hinge on Palestinian Question

Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s minister of investment, said talks toward the normalization of ties with Israel remain on the table but have always been “contingent on a pathway to a peaceful resolution of the Palestinian question.” “That was on the table — it remains on the table and obviously the setback over the last month has clarified why Saudi Arabia was so adamant that resolution of the Palestinian conflict has to be part of a broader normalization in the Middle East,” Al-Falih said on a panel moderated by Stephanie Flanders at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. When asked whether Saudi Arabia would use economic tools such as the oil price to achieve a cease-fire, Al-Falih laughed and said: “That is not on the table today. Saudi Arabia is trying to find peace through peaceful discussions.” Al-Falih noted that it’s unfortunate the New Economy Forum this year is gathering at a time of heightened crisis. He said that Saudi Arabia is pained on a human level at the loss of life in Gaza and the losses in Israel on Oct. 7. “The Palestinian people have had their basic rights taken away and the right for statehood and peaceful existence unfulfilled, and it’s time to use this awful situation to bring that to the fore and to resolve it,” Al-Falih said. Click here to read… [23]

Iranian president makes first Saudi Arabia visit for Gaza summit

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has said “action” rather than “words” is needed to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict, ahead of his arrival in Riyadh on Nov 11 for a summit featuring Arab and Islamic leaders. It is the first visit to Saudi Arabia by the Iranian president since a Chinese-brokered deal in March restored ties between the two countries. Raisi, who was wearing a traditional Palestinian keffiyeh scarf upon his arrival in the Saudi capital, was met at the airport by officials ahead of a joint meeting of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which will discuss the hostilities in Gaza. The two regional blocs were initially scheduled to convene separately, but it was announced by the Saudi Foreign Ministry on Nov 10 that the meetings would be combined. “Gaza is not an arena for words. It should be for action,” Raisi said in Tehran before departing for Riyadh, Reuters reported. “Today the unity of Islamic countries is very important.” The joint summit also reflects the need for “unified efforts to come up with a collective Arab and Islamic position to address the dangerous and unprecedented developments witnessed in Gaza and the Palestinian territories and contain their repercussions,” the Saudi press agency said on Nov 10. Click here to read… [24]

Netanyahu doubles down on Gaza's future

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that Hamas has practically lost control of northern Gaza. He added that once the war ends, his country will maintain “security” oversight to ensure that no new authority educates its children to “hate Israel.” “There is no substitute for victory. We will eliminate Hamas and save our hostages,” Netanyahu said in a Nov 11 night press conference in Tel Aviv. “The IDF has completed the encirclement of Gaza City. They are on the outskirts of Shifa Hospital and have killed a lot of terrorists.” “Hamas has lost control in the north of the Gaza Strip,” he claimed. “They have no safe place to hide. Until the last of the terrorists, all of Hamas are dead.” “We will not stop until the mission is completed,” the Israeli leader stated, reassuring the families of the fallen Israeli soldiers that “we are doing everything to be worthy of their sacrifice and heroism.” Netanyahu unveiled his long-term plan for Gaza on Nov 09, saying Israel would ensure that the territory no longer poses a threat. “What we have to see is Gaza demilitarized, de-radicalized and rebuilt,” he said, adding, “We don’t seek to conquer Gaza. We don’t seek to occupy Gaza. And we don’t seek to govern Gaza.” Click here to read… [25]

Surge and Swarm: How China’s Ships Control the South China Sea

At least 15 Chinese ships took up positions near Second Thomas Shoal on Oct. 22. As the convoy from the Philippines approached, the Chinese ships burst into a flurry of maneuvers: darting around, circling, cutting across bows. They outnumbered the Philippines’ ships 4 to 1. The first collision occurred 6 nautical miles from the reef’s mouth. A Chinese coast guard ship hit one of the Philippine boats carrying supplies for the outpost, prompting it to abort its mission. Two hours later, a Chinese militia boat bumped a Philippine coast guard ship. The events that day were part of a playbook for China, which uses its overwhelming numbers and outposts in the South China Sea to pressure rivals. On short notice, Beijing’s fleets can move rapidly—even hundreds of miles from its own shores—to swarm and obstruct opposing ships. China’s ability to sustain such a presence has vastly reshaped the South China Sea. It projects power across the strategic waterway, squeezing others and turning routine patrols into perilous operations. China’s actions lie in the gray zone—not all-out war, but not peace either. Rather than attention-grabbing gray-hulled warships, Beijing deploys its coast guard and maritime militia, the largest such fleets in the world. The militia is often state-funded and well-trained, acting in close concert with the coast guard and drawing support from Chinese bases such as Mischief Reef, as the Oct. 22 incident demonstrated. Click here to read… [26]

U.S., NATO to Suspend Participation in Landmark Cold War Arms Treaty

The U.S. and its NATO allies served notice Nov 07 that they will formally suspend their participation in a 1990 treaty limiting conventional forces in Europe, marking the demise of another landmark arms control agreement. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s move follows Russia’s formal withdrawal from the accord on Nov 07 and longstanding Western complaints that Moscow wasn’t honouring the terms of the treaty. “Russia’s withdrawal is the latest in a series of actions that systematically undermines Euro-Atlantic Security,” said NATO’s governing body, the North Atlantic Council, in a statement Nov 07. Suspending participation in the treaty—which continued to be implemented as the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union dissolved—will give the U.S. more flexibility in deploying forces on NATO’s northern and southern flanks, including in Romania and Bulgaria near Ukraine. It also enables Ukraine’s Western allies to avoid sharing information on the deployment of their forces with nations close to Russia. “Russia’s withdrawal from the treaty is unsustainable and requires a strong response from the alliance,” said a senior State Department official. “Taking no action would send the wrong message.” The suspension will take place on Dec. 7 for the U.S., the official said. With the suspension, another landmark treaty that helped seal the end of the Cold War fell by the wayside. Click here to read… [27]

Joe Biden speaks with Oman ruler as China eyes stronger defence presence in Middle East

President Joe Biden spoke with the ruler of Oman, amid US concerns about China’s efforts to deepen its defence presence in the Middle East. Biden and Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, the sultan of Oman, “committed to strengthening the long-standing US-Oman bilateral relationship and seeking new opportunities in trade and investment, security coordination, and cooperation towards a more prosperous Middle East region,” the White House said in readout of the call on Nov 10. Biden has been briefed on what his advisers see as a Chinese plan to build a military facility in Oman, according to people familiar with the matter, part of a broader effort by Beijing to deepen defence and diplomatic ties in the Middle East. Biden was told Chinese military officials discussed the matter last month with Omani counterparts, who were said to be amenable to such a deal, said the people, who asked not to be identified to discuss private deliberations. The people said the two sides agreed to more talks in the coming weeks. The White House readout made no mention of the China concerns. The precise location of the possible military facility or what it would house is not known. One of the people familiar with the matter described the Chinese role as more of a military presence than an actual facility or base. Click here to read… [28]

Vladimir Putin calls for closer Russia-China cooperation on military satellites and prospective weapons

Russian President Vladimir Putin told a senior Chinese military official Nov 08 that Moscow and Beijing should expand their cooperation on military satellites and other prospective defence technologies – a statement that signalled increasingly close defence links between the allies. Putin spoke in televised remarks at the start of his meeting with General Zhang Youxia, who is China’s second-ranking military official and vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission. The Russian leader emphasised the importance of developing closer military links, noting that cooperation in hi-tech spheres now takes priority. “I mean space, including high-orbit assets, and new prospective types of weapons that will ensure strategic security of both Russia and the People’s Republic of China,” Putin said without elaboration. He emphasised that while “Russia and China aren’t building any military alliances based on Cold War patterns”, their cooperation is a “serious factor in stabilising the international situation”. Putin has previously said that Russia has been sharing highly sensitive military technologies with China that helped significantly bolster its defence capability. In October 2019, he mentioned that Russia was helping China develop an early warning system to spot ballistic missile launches – a system involving ground-based radar and satellites that only Russia and the US had. Click here to read… [29]

Pentagon Is Throttling Ukraine Aid as Funding Push Stalls

Funding delays have forced the US to begin restricting the flow of military assistance to Ukraine, and the Pentagon has only $1 billion left to replenish stocks of weapons that were sent to the country, according to a spokeswoman. “We have had to meter out our support for Ukraine,” Deputy Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters. “We’re going to continue to roll out packages but they are getting smaller.” Singh urged Congress to break a deadlock and approve the Biden administration’s $61.4 billion request for emergency funds for Ukraine’s fight against Russia, part of a $106 billion package that would include aid for Israel and the US-Mexico border. Republicans in the House of Representatives have sought to separate the aid for Ukraine and Israel, an idea the White House opposes. The Biden administration also has the option of sending weapons to Ukraine valued at up to $4.9 billion granted under other congressional authorities, Singh said. Singh also said that the US had burned through about 95% of previous funding for Ukraine, which she said also totalled more than $60 billion. She said the remaining $1 billion is part of a program that allows President Joe Biden to send existing US military hardware to Ukraine and replace it with new orders. Click here to read… [30]

Australia Signs Historic Climate Refuge Pact With Tuvalu

Australia has struck the “most significant” Pacific agreement in its history with the tiny island nation of Tuvalu, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said after signing a treaty to provide climate, economic and security assistance. The accord will create a pathway for Tuvalu’s citizens to come to Australia as the threat of climate change worsens, Albanese said Nov 10 at a press conference in the Cook Islands, flanked by Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Kausea Natano. It will also provide security for the Pacific nation in the event of a humanitarian disaster or a conflict. Under the Falepili agreement, as the treaty is known, Canberra will provide a special pathway for 280 of Tuvalu’s citizens a year to come to Australia. Under the visa, they will have permission to study, work or live in Australia. “This is a groundbreaking agreement,” Albanese said. “The Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union will be regarded as a significant day in which Australia acknowledged that we are part of the Pacific family.”A NASA study released in August found that much of Tuvalu’s land area, along with pieces of the Pacific nation’s critical infrastructure, will be below the average high tide by 2050 if climate change proceeds as expected. The treaty is the biggest victory yet for Australia’s revamped diplomatic efforts in the Pacific over the past 18 months, as well as the first time Canberra has struck such an agreement in the region. Click here to read… [31]

Health

How bad is Gaza’s disease outbreak amid the Israel war?

As thousands of Palestinians try to find space in Gaza’s shelters or move south for safety from Israeli bombardment, infectious diseases are sweeping across the besieged enclave, according to a World Health Organization (WHO) report. Infectious maladies such as diarrhoea and chickenpox are soaring in Gaza, the WHO reported on Nov 08, while medical organisations have been warning of the risk of cholera and epidemics. Additionally, Gaza’s water and sanitation crises have made residents unable to escape the ripple effects of Israeli strikes and sieges in their daily lives. Lack of clean drinking water and pollutants proliferating through waterways after infrastructure breakdowns have contributed to infections. Faced with such limitations, hundreds of thousands of people in Gaza are also cramped into shelters, potentially accelerating the spread of diseases. Thousands of others are also walking in crowds from north to south Gaza following Israeli orders to evacuate. “Between the worryingly low levels of access to proper water and sanitation, the extreme density of the population … and a large part of the population that has evacuated to the southern three governorates, you have a highly conducive environment for an outbreak and spread of infectious disease”, said Michael Talhami, strategic program adviser for critical infrastructure and essential services in the Near and Middle East for the International Committee of the Red Cross. Click here to read… [32]

‘Between risk and despair’: Cyclical drought hurts pregnant women in Angola

Two days after delivering her sixth child this August at Casa de Espera, a public health facility in Cunene, southern Angola, Victoria Luis was still so anxious that she couldn’t sit still or sleep properly. The delivery had gone well. But the 32-year-old farmer, who walked 30km (19 miles) from her village of Tshiketiengue which has no hospital, could not wait to go back home to her five other children – the youngest only two years old. The below-average rainfalls, especially from 2018 to 2021, have triggered severe food shortages and deaths of livestock in parts of the region, especially the provinces of Cunene and Namibe. The United Nations says this is the worst climate crisis in 40 years in the Southern African country. “Millions of people in southern Angola are facing an existential threat as drought aggravated by climate change continues to ravage the region,” Amnesty International said in a statement in July 2021. In 2022, the drought in southern Angola left an estimated 1.58 million people at risk of famine, according to the World Bank. “This year, there was almost no rain, so we could not grow any product … during these last nine months, every day was a different one. I spent many days begging for food on the street,” Luis told Al Jazeera. Click here to read… [33]