Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (16-22 October 2023)

Economic

Belt and Road Forum shows China recalibrating after 10 years

The Belt and Road Forum concluded on Oct 18 has provided a glimpse of China's future global engagement, likely focusing on smaller projects in developing economies of the so-called Global South, while other countries distance themselves amid high geopolitical tensions. The forum celebrated 10 years of the initiative, launched in 2013 and inspired by ancient trade routes. Since its inception, China's infrastructure-centered investment blitz has spanned over 150 countries, stretching from Asia to Africa and on to South America. It has driven the "flow of goods, capital, technologies and human resources," President Xi Jinping said in his address to the event. But the initiative has also stirred unease over Beijing's spreading influence, as well as risks to the environment and debt distress among countries saddled with the bills. With China facing its own issues as its economic growth slows, this week's forum underscored a new emphasis on "small yet smart" projects observed in recent years. At the same time, Xi still vowed to accelerate connectivity between China and Europe over the next 10 years, integrating ports, shipping and trading services. He also pledged new financing and spoke of creating pilot zones for e-commerce cooperation. Despite Xi's sales pitch, it was clear that European interest and involvement in the initiative is waning. Except for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, leaders from richer European economies were conspicuously absent at the two-day forum. Click here to read… [2]

China turns to belt and road countries in race to secure tech-critical minerals

As the US and China continue their stand-off over the latter’s rising technological capacity – and control over the minerals critical for tech production and development becomes a question of paramount importance – Beijing has intensified its efforts to build partnerships with countries taking part in its Belt and Road Initiative to ensure a steady, stable supply chain for these essential raw materials. The world’s second-largest economy secured mineral cooperation deals with more than 10 countries in Asia, South America and Africa during last week’s Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, according to the project list and statement released by the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. One such agreement concerned continued investment in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, believed to have the world’s largest untapped high-quality iron ore reserve with an estimated 2.4 billion tonnes. The deal will lower China’s dependency on ore from Australia and Brazil. China is also looking to Asian partners, especially resource-rich Indonesia and Kazakhstan, to fulfil its appetite for minerals. The country is investing in a nickel cobalt hydroxide wet process project, a nickel metal production line and supporting facilities with an annual output of 126,000 tonnes in Indonesia, and a tungsten mine project in Kazakhstan. Click here to read… [3]

Xi Backs Putin on Security, Wants Progress on Gas Pipeline

President Xi Jinping reiterated that China supports Moscow’s efforts in safeguarding its national sovereignty, security and development interests, while seeking a breakthrough on a Sino-Russian gas pipeline. Deepening ties between China and Russia is not an expedient but a long-term solution, Xi told Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during a meeting Oct 18 in Beijing, according to a statement from the Chinese government. China is keen to work with Moscow to ensure grain and energy security, and wants to see “substantial progress” on a natural gas pipeline between both countries and Mongolia as soon as possible, Xi added. Xi’s comments reinforce the tight ties that have developed between China and Russia, especially since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Beijing has provided diplomatic and economic support to Moscow that has helped blunt the effects of Western sanctions on Russia. Still, Beijing has also sought to cast itself as a neutral broker on the war after releasing a 12-point blueprint for bringing peace to Ukraine in February this year that included calls to respect sovereignty, facilitate grain exports and halt all hostilities. The proposals were panned by the US and its allies and have gained little traction, though they won Xi credibility among Global South nations. Click here to read… [4]

China and Russia supercharge trade with record grain order, bolstering food and energy security as Western pressure persists

China and Russia are strengthening their partnership in food and energy, as both countries face mounting challenges amid tensions with the West, according to announcements made at recent forums in Beijing. The two nations have signed a nearly 2.5-trillion-rouble (US$25.8 billion) grain-supply contract, the biggest in their food-trade history, under the Belt and Road Initiative, a Russian insider was quoted as saying by the TASS news agency on Oct 18 during the third Belt and Road Forum. Russia, which has been seeking more cooperation in Eurasia amid Western sanctions resulting from its invasion of Ukraine, is selling 70 million tonnes of grain, legumes, and oilseeds to its southern neighbour, according to Karen Ovsepyan, who leads the New Land Grain Corridor, a logistics hub being built in Russia’s Ural Mountains, Siberia and its far east region to facilitate China-Russia trade. China, which has made food security a strategic priority amid growing food demand and an uncertain global market, will receive the agreed-upon food over a period of 12 years, he said. And the corridor through which the food is to be transported will be launched soon as an intergovernmental agreement is signed, which could be in late November or early December, he added. Click here to read… [5]

China’s Economy Gets Boost From Stimulus, but Headwinds Grow

China’s economy showed signs of emerging from a soft patch in the third quarter, as retail sales got a lift from government stimulus and factory activity stabilized after months of weakness. Growth came in at 4.9%, faster than expected by economists though still a decline on a year-on-year basis from the previous quarter. Growth accelerated on quarter-on-quarter terms, which strips out distortions caused by China’s unlocking from Covid lockdowns in 2022. The economy’s performance holds off for now broad fears about a more serious economic crunch. Real estate remains a major risk, with home sales crumbling and developers China Evergrande and Country Garden struggling with heavy debts. Consumer confidence is fragile and the global backdrop is darkening because of the war between Israel and Hamas. Longer term, China faces a daunting list of headwinds, including frosty relations with the U.S.-led West, worsening demographics and a difficult reorienting of its economy toward growth powered by consumption and advanced manufacturing and away from property-driven investment. Economists expect growth to slow in the years ahead as China wrestles with these challenges. “The Chinese economy seems to have navigated its way past a particularly rough patch thanks to various supportive measures by the government, but a strong rebound is not in the cards,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist who once headed the IMF’s China division. Click here to read… [6]

New US export limits on AI chips won’t affect PLA immediately, analysts say

Washington’s new export rules, intended to prevent the Chinese military from acquiring advanced AI chips for weapons development, would not have an immediate impact, but they might impede the PLA’s modernisation drive, analysts said. “The People’s Liberation Army’s active weapons systems are predominantly supported by regular 45-nm and 28-nm chips. It doesn’t need to use the advanced A100 and H100 chips made by [US chip maker] Nvidia listed in the new bans,” said Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank. “Of course, the military also needs to command supercomputers, ChatGPT and other AI large language models, but China has developed its own substitute chips in ways similar to what Huawei has achieved with its Kirin 9000s,” Zhou said. On Oct 17, the US Commerce Department further tightened its existing export restrictions for advanced computing semiconductors, chipmaking tools and other cutting-edge items that would support AI applications and end-uses in advanced weapon systems. The new measures came just weeks after Huawei Technologies developed its own advanced seven-nanometer chip Kirin 9000s. Huawei has not disclosed how the chip was built, but industry sources say it was based on chips made by Nvidia, based in Santa Clara, California. Click here to read… [7]

Turkey pushes $25bn Iraq transport route over India-Europe corridor

Turkey, seen as a natural bridge between Asia and Europe, is perhaps one of the most sensitive countries to changes in trade routes, as Ottomans bitterly experienced during the Age of Discovery. Ozel's alarm, and developments since, highlight Turkish discomfort with new plans like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) announced on the sidelines of the Group of 20 last month, and Ankara's determination to strengthen routes that place Turkey in an integral position. The proposed IMEC would run from India to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel to reach Europe -- bypassing Turkey. In an interview with Nikkei on Oct. 15, Turkey's Transportation and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said that Turkish, Iraqi, Emirati and Qatari officials gathered this month to work on a project known as the Iraq Development Road. The minister referred to this as a "serious alternative" to IMEC. The Iraqi project, also known as the "dry canal," would transport goods from the Grand Faw port in southern Iraq. The port's first phase is being developed by South Korea's Daewoo Engineering & Construction. The route would extend to the northern border with Turkey, following 1,200 km of railways and roads. On Turkey's side, 615 km of new railway and 320 km of new highways will also be built to connect it to the Turkish network, with a combined cost of around $25 billion in both countries, according to the minister. Click here to read… [8]

Europe's Three Seas Initiative needs $690bn in infrastructure: banker

An infrastructure initiative spanning nations on the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas offers Japanese companies a chance to tap investment demand totaling nearly $700 billion in a region with strong growth, a Polish banker involved in the effort tells Nikkei. The Three Seas Initiative aims to bolster energy, transport and digital infrastructure in 13 central and eastern European countries. Beata Daszynska-Muzyczka, president of Polish state development bank BGK, touted its potential in a recent interview. 3SI members have a total population of 130 million, she said. The group includes European Union countries Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Austria, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece. Though they lag western European economies in gross domestic product, Daszynska-Muzyczka said the 3SI bloc "is the fastest-growing region in terms of economy and GDP." She estimated that demand from members for investment in the energy, digital and logistics sectors through 2030 will total 650 billion euros ($690 billion). Poland and Croatia proposed the framework in 2015, looking to draw investment and lift the region's economy following the European debt crisis earlier in the decade. Its ambitious push for connectivity invites comparisons with China's decade-old Belt and Road Initiative. Plans for 3SI include building a large-scale liquefied natural gas terminal in Croatia, linked by pipeline to Hungary and Austria. Offshore wind farms on the Baltic Sea could deliver electricity to central and eastern Europe. Click here to read… [9]

China trade: Xinjiang defies Western sanctions as foreign trade hits record high, surges by 47%

Western China’s Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region defied Western sanctions in the first nine months of the year as its foreign trade hit a record high. Overseas shipments in the first three quarters of the year jumped by 47 per cent from a year earlier to 253 billion yuan (US$34.6 billion), already surpassing the total for 2022, according to Urumqi customs. The growth was achieved despite Western economic sanctions imposed due to China’s alleged human rights abuses, spying and support of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Other sanctions are aimed at curtailing China’s technological capabilities by restricting access to key suppliers. Overall, Xinjiang’s exports surged by 48.8 per cent to 213 billion yuan, while its imports expanded by 40 per cent to 40 billion yuan. The US’ Uygur Forced Labour Prevention Act, which went into effect in June 2022, has effectively blocked American imports of all products wholly or partially sourced from the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. The US enacted the Uygur Forced Labour Prevention Act last year to block imports of all goods sourced wholly or partly from Xinjiang, unless firms can provide “clear and convincing” evidence that their supply chains are free of forced labour. Beijing has repeatedly denied the allegations of forced labour. Click here to read… [10]

Ruble surges as comeback against dollar continues

The Russian ruble gained ground against major currencies on Oct 23, edging above 94 rubles to the US dollar for the first time since September 13, trading data from the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) showed. The ruble also rose against the European single currency, trading at 99.9 rubles to the euro as of 09:30 GMT, also a six-week high. Analysts link the ruble’s rebound to a recent regulation ordering Russian exporters to sell their foreign currency revenues and repatriate the proceeds. The measure was announced on October 12 to support the currency, which saw its value drop to its lowest since March 2022 earlier this month. The regulation covers 43 Russian exporters from the energy, metals, chemical and forestry industries, as well as farming. “The Russian ruble has finally come out of last week’s decline. The market needed that week for consolidation after the introduction of the foreign currency earnings repatriation regulation,” BKS Express market analyst Michael Zeltser told Forbes Russia. In his view, the ruble’s surge against the dollar “is not over yet” and after some stabilization Western currencies “risk continuing to fall, while the ruble will be ready for an offensive.” Analysts note that high global oil prices also lend support to the Russian currency, as do the upcoming tax payments by Russian exporters. Click here to read… [11]

China ratchets up US securities sell-off

The amount of US stocks and bonds sold by Chinese investors hit a four-year high in August, according to the latest data released by the US Treasury Department on Oct 19. Sales of equities totaled about $5.1 billion, marking a record for monthly sales of US stocks by investors from the Asian nation, while they also sold agency bonds. Data showed that China's holdings of US Treasuries fell to $805.4 billion, hitting the lowest level since May 2009, when Beijing held $776.4 billion in US debt. The surge in sales of US securities has fueled speculation that Beijing could have used the funds for intervention purposes to support the weakening national currency. In August, the yuan dropped to its lowest exchange rate against the US dollar since November, prompting Beijing to instruct state-owned banks to step up intervention in the currency market. “It's unclear whether this was for currency purposes because Chinese reserves have not declined, which is odd,” Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York said, as quoted by Reuters. “It's really difficult to tell why their holdings are declining so much, but it could certainly be to stabilize the currency.” Total holdings of US Treasuries by foreign countries amounted to $7.707 trillion in August, marking year-on-year growth of roughly 2.8%. Japan remained the largest foreign holder of US government debt at $1.116 trillion. Click here to read… [12]

EU Council chief warns of new migration crisis

The violent conflict between Palestinian militant groups and Israel spells serious danger for the EU as it could trigger a new refugee influx, European Council President Charles Michel has warned. Speaking at a press conference on Oct 17, Michel pointed out that the example of Egypt, which shares a border with Gaza and has to deal with “millions of refugees,” demonstrates that “the situation can have… very serious consequences for this country and it can have direct consequences for us in Europe.” With this in mind, the official continued, it is crucial that the EU engages with Egypt to establish a broad partnership on migration to facilitate access to Gaza. At the same time, he noted that Cairo has signaled that it does not want to open borders with the Palestinian enclave, adding that the border crossing area has been the target of frequent attacks. “Egypt also sees it as a threat to maintaining the possibility of a two-state solution,” he said, referring to a concept that envisages the coexistence of the State of Palestine and the State of Israel. Michel also stressed that the recent escalation in the region has sent shockwaves across the world, fomenting polarization among different groups. Against this backdrop, he called on EU leaders to cooperate in a bid to defuse tensions by fighting against anti-Semitism and Islamophobia alike. Click here to read… [13]

China To Curb Graphite Exports In Latest Trade Spat

China, the world’s largest producer and supplier of graphite, will require export permits for some graphite products as of December 1 as it seeks to protect its national security, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Oct 20. Graphite and graphite products are critical for the manufacturing of any electric vehicle battery, and China is the dominant player in the market. The move to require permits from exporters to export two types of graphite is seen as China looking to respond to the recent restrictions and investigations by Western governments of Chinese products and manufacturing practices. As of December 1, exporters of high-purity, high-hardness, and high-intensity synthetic graphite material, as well as exporters of natural flake graphite and its products, will have to apply for permits to ship those products out of China. The country’s commerce ministry said it was not targeting any particular country with the move. The restriction on exports of graphite products is the latest Chinese attempt to exert its market influence to control the supply of critical minerals. The requirement for graphite export permits is “conducive to ensuring the security and stability of the global supply chain and industrial chain, and conducive to better safeguarding national security and interests,” the Chinese ministry said, as quoted by Reuters. Click here to read… [14]

Oil Poised To Become U.S.’ Single Largest Export Product

Oil is on track to be the largest export item for the United States this year for the first time in history, highlighting the growing influence of U.S. oil production and exports on the global oil market. Rising U.S. crude oil production in recent years and growing exports after the ban was lifted in 2015 have made U.S. oil an increasingly important commodity on the market, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ban and sanctions on Russian crude in the West. U.S. oil supply offset some of the OPEC+ cuts in the first half of this year as it is set for record-high production in 2023 and 2024. America's crude oil production is expected to average 12.92 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 13.12 million bpd next year—new record highs, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) says in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook. Oil exports are also at a record high, averaging 3.99 million bpd in the first half of 2023—up by nearly 20% from the first half of 2022. In terms of both volumes and value, U.S. oil exports were the biggest export of all categories in America's trade with the world through August this year and are likely to be such for the full year 2023—for the first time ever, according to an analysis by Ken Roberts at WorldCity, a company that tracks U.S. exports based on U.S. Census Bureau. Click here to read… [15]

Strategic

China expanding ways to target continental U.S., Pentagon report says

China is expanding the ways it can hit the continental U.S., the Pentagon's annual report to Congress has revealed, including what would be the world's first conventionally armed intercontinental missile and submarine-launched weapons that can be fired from the safety of its littoral waters. In the document commonly known as the China Military Power Report, released on Oct 19, the U.S. Department of Defense says that China "may be exploring development of conventionally armed intercontinental range missile systems." Typically, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is designed for the delivery of nuclear weapons. If a conventionally armed version was to be developed and fielded, such capabilities would allow China "to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska," the report warns. In the past, the U.S. military experimented with ICBMs carrying conventional warheads, but shelved the program. The merit would be "the ability to strike promptly anywhere in the world, regardless of the presence of overseas bases or nearby naval forces," a Congressional Research Service report noted. The downside would be that adversaries like Russia or China could misinterpret the launch of a conventional ICBM and assume that the missile carries nuclear weapons, inviting a retaliatory nuclear strike. Click here to read… [16]

China is building up its nuclear weapons arsenal faster than previous projections, a U.S. report says

A Pentagon report on China’s military power says Beijing is exceeding previous projections of how quickly it is building up its nuclear weapons arsenal and is “almost certainly” learning lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine about what a conflict over Taiwan might look like. The report released Oct 19 also warns that China may be pursuing a new intercontinental missile system using conventional arms that, if fielded, would allow Beijing “to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska.” The China report comes a month before an expected meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden on the sidelines of next month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The annual report, required by Congress, is one way the Pentagon measures the growing military capabilities of China, which the U.S. government sees as its key threat in the region and America’s primary long-term security challenge. But after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, the U.S. has been forced again to focus on the Middle East, instead of its widely promoted pivot to the Pacific to counter China’s growth. The U.S. is rushing weapons to Israel while continuing to support and deliver munitions to Ukraine in its 20-month struggle to repel Russia’s invasion. Click here to read… [17]

Atomic Arms Fears Grow After US Test, Russia Spurns Treaty

The US conducted a high-explosive experiment at a nuclear test site in Nevada just hours after Russia revoked a ban on atomic-weapons testing, prompting concerns of a new arms race between the world’s top nuclear powers. The Energy Department, which oversees the US stockpile of more than 5,000 nuclear weapons, said Oct 18’s test in southern Nevada used chemicals and radioisotopes to “validate new predictive explosion models” that can help it to detect atomic blasts in other countries. While the test is legal, the timing was notable: It came shortly after Russia announced it would no longer adhere to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which bans nuclear explosions. The treaty has never entered legal force even though Russia and the US have both observed its norms since the end of the Cold War. US officials say more transparency is needed because while the countries don’t test warheads, they do conduct so-called sub-critical experiments — explosions that verify weapon designs without the amount of atomic material needed to sustain a chain reaction. Those smaller explosions can still be picked up by sensitive seismic stations and raise suspicion between rivals. “Given that Russia is accusing the US of making preparations for noncompliant nuclear test explosions and that the US has accused Russia of being in noncompliance, both should engage in discussions that enable confidence building measures,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. Click here to read… [18]

Israel’s Defense Minister Gives More Details on Plans for Gaza

Israel’s defense minister gave more details about the country’s military plans for Gaza on Oct 20, implying it has no intention of running the territory after its operations wind down. Israel aims to disentangle itself from Gaza and to create a “new security reality” in the region, Yoav Gallant said to the parliamentary foreign affairs and defense committee in Tel Aviv. It’s unclear from his comments who Israel expects to run Gaza if and when the military achieves its aim of wiping out Hamas, the Iran-backed militant group that killed around 1,400 Israelis during an attack on Oct. 7. Israel has launched mass airstrikes on Gaza, which is now ruled by Hamas, since then and is widely expected to launch a ground invasion. Thousands of Palestinians have been killed. The objectives of the campaign include destroying Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, Gallant said, as well as the complete removal of Israeli responsibility for the Gaza Strip. “I think we have failed to see what’s been happening in the Middle East coherently for close to 20 years now,” says John Bolton, former US National Security Advisor. “There will be three stages,” the defense minister said. “We are now in the first stage – a military campaign that currently includes strikes, and will later include maneuvering, with the objective of neutralizing terrorists and destroying Hamas infrastructure.” Click here to read… [19]

China sacks missing defence chief Li Shangfu with no explanation

China has dismissed General Li Shangfu as defence minister, the second senior official to be ousted in the past three months with no explanation given. State broadcaster CCTV reported on Oct 24 that Li had been removed from his position, after weeks of speculation over the fate of the US-sanctioned general who has not been seen in public since the end of August. The decision to remove him was approved by the National People’s Congress Standing Committee. The report did not say who would take Li’s place. Li is the second minister to be abruptly removed since Xi Jinping began his unprecedented third term as the party’s leader last October. Qin Gang was replaced as foreign minister in July by his predecessor Wang Yi, after a similar unexplained withdrawal from public engagements. The reason for Qin’s removal is still not known. Li and Qin were also removed as state councillors on Tuesday – a senior cabinet position with a higher ranking than regular ministers. No replacements were named. Unlike their counterparts in the West, Chinese foreign and defence ministers are chiefly policy enforcers, not the top decision-makers. It comes just days before a Pentagon delegation is due to arrive in Beijing for a regional security forum, paving the way for long-stalled high-level military dialogue between the two sides. Click here to read… [20]

US increases Middle East military presence in response to attacks on troops

The US will send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and additional Patriot air defence missile system battalions to the Middle East, the Pentagon said on 21 Oct, in response to recent attacks on US troops in the region. The United States has sent a significant amount of naval power to the Middle East in recent weeks, including two aircraft carriers, their support ships and about 2,000 Marines. Washington is on heightened alert for activity by Iran-backed groups as regional tensions soar during the Israel-Gaza war. “Following detailed discussions with President [Joe] Biden on recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East Region, today I directed a series of additional steps to further strengthen the Department of Defence posture in the region,” Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement. Austin said he was placing additional troops on prepare-to-deploy orders, but did not say how many. The Pentagon has already placed some 2,000 troops on a heightened state of readiness in case they need to deploy to the region. “These steps will bolster regional deterrence efforts, increase force protection for US forces in the region, and assist in the defence of Israel,” Austin added. The deployments come two years after Biden’s administration withdrew air defence systems from the Middle East, citing a reduction in tensions with Iran. Click here to read… [21]

China passes patriotic education law for children, families--state media

China's national legislature on Oct 24 passed a law to strengthen patriotic education for children and families, state media reported, to counter challenges such as “historical nihilism” and safeguard “national unity. The Patriotic Education Law provides a legal guarantee for carrying out patriotic education, state-backed Xinhua news agency reported, adding that some people “are at a loss about what is patriotism.” “Historical nihilism” is a phrase used in China to describe public doubt and skepticism over the Chinese Communist Party's description of past events. The law, which will take effect on Jan. 1, 2024, outlines the responsibilities for central and local government departments as well as in schools and for families. “While it is enacted to promote patriotism, the law stresses the need to be rational, inclusive and open-minded, open the country wider to the world and embrace other civilisations,” Xinhua said. The law mandates that patriotic education respects the “history and cultural traditions of other countries and draws inspiration from all of human civilization's outstanding achievements,” it said. The law also has targeted measures for different groups of people, including government officials, employees, villagers and residents in special administrative regions Hong Kong and Macau, as well as Taiwan, state-backed China Daily said. Click here to read… [22]

Myanmar clashes engulf refugee camp, air base and bridges

The internecine conflict between Myanmar's military and insurgent groups has spilled into a refugee camp with deadly consequences, and the violence also has destroyed bridges serving key transportation arteries. The Karen National Union and two other ethnic militant groups released a statement Oct. 12 declaring they would not participate in the eighth anniversary commemoration of the signing of the National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). The military government hosted the event Oct 18 in the capital, Naypyitaw. "The NCA is no longer valid," the three signatories said, citing the military's repeated attacks targeting civilians. The military has conducted crackdowns against resistance that followed its removal of the elected government in a February 2021 takeover. In 2015, Myanmar signed the NCA with eight ethnic armed groups. The number of signatory militant groups eventually grew to 10. But leaders from about half of them were apparently absent from Sunday's commemoration. The exchange of violence has escalated in Myanmar as the military clashes with ethnic militants as well as with pro-democracy factions. Some groups have engaged in terrorism. On Oct. 9, an explosion tore through a refugee camp in Kachin state near the Chinese border. The blast claimed 29 lives, including women and children, and left more than 50 people injured. Click here to read… [23]

South Korea, Japan, U.S. set up three-way security hotline—Yonhap

South Korea, the United States and Japan have completed work on a three-way communication hotline, Yonhap news agency reported on Oct 17 citing a senior Seoul official, in a further sign of growing trilateral security cooperation. The hotline comes at a time of military tensions with North Korea and China’s growing regional influence. The three countries’ leaders announced a commitment to consult each other in times of crisis at a summit in Camp David in August. Technical tests of the system have been completed, Yonhap said, citing the anonymous source. The hotline is to be used by the leaders or their top national security advisers in times of security crises, it said. South Korea’s foreign ministry did not immediately confirm the report. Nuclear envoys from the three countries are holding two days of talks from Monday in Jakarta to discuss heightened tensions stemming from North Korea’s nuclear program and closer military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow. The meeting comes amid a new accusation by the United States that the North recently provided Russia with a large shipment of weapons, which it said was an indication of expanded military relationship between the two countries. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s made a rare trip to Russia to meet President Vladimir Putin last month, fanning concerns they could shore up Russia’s military in Ukraine while North Korea obtains missile technology banned under U.N. resolutions. Click here to read… [24]

Russia-North Korea relations have reached ‘strategic level’ – Lavrov

Relations between Russia and North Korea have now soared to new heights, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said during his landmark two-day trip to Pyongyang. Speaking at a meeting with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui on Oct 19, Lavrov declared that the recent meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gave grounds to say that the bilateral ties “had reached a completely new, strategic level.” His comments were echoed by his North Korean counterpart, who stated that the partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang is developing into “the invincible relations of comrades-in-arms.” Meanwhile, the Russian minister also expressed “serious concerns” about the military build-up by the US, Japan, and South Korea on the Korean Peninsula as well as Washington’s policy of deploying strategic infrastructure, including its nuclear assets, in the region. This summer, the US sent a nuclear-armed submarine to South Korea. In recent weeks, it has also staged several joint war games with Seoul’s military on the peninsula, sparking outrage in Pyongyang, which has conducted a flurry of missile tests in the region. Commenting on the actions of the US and its regional allies, Lavrov pointed out that “we are countering this unconstructive and dangerous line with a policy of ensuring de-escalation here and preventing tensions.” Click here to read… [25]

Central Asian Leaders At Odds Over Controversial Canal Project

Officials in Uzbekistan have said a government delegation will travel to Afghanistan in the coming months to conduct negotiations over an ambitious canal project that is sparking deep concern over water security in the region. Tashkent-based outlet Gazeta.uz on October 19 cited Ulugbek Kosimov, the governor of the southern Surkhandaryo region, which borders Afghanistan, as saying the talks could take place before the end of the year. This announcement comes on the heel of news that the Taliban-run government in Kabul is poised to start work on the second phase of the Qosh Tepa canal, which has been billed by Afghan officials as a way for Afghanistan to ensure its own farming needs. Speaking last week at a ceremony marking the scheduled start to that second phase, the deputy foreign minister in the Taliban government, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, sought to reassure neighboring nations on the route of the Amu Darya River, from which water in Qosh Tepa will be drawn. “If our neighbors have worries in this regard, we are ready to contact them through diplomatic channels,” he was quoted as saying by ToloNews. That conciliatory tone was mixed with defiance, however. Acting Defense Minister Mawlawi Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid said the Taliban’s armed forces would forcefully resist any aggressive efforts to stymie the project. Click here to read… [26]

Israel-Hamas Conflict Casts Shadow Over COP28 Success

The success of COP28 in Dubai, UAE, is facing immense pressure due to the aftermath of the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel and the ongoing Israeli conflict with Gaza. This not only diverted media attention from the 2023 gathering but also threatens to further fragment the global climate discussion. Currently, power dynamics are being established to discuss the role of hydrocarbons in the future energy mix or as a cornerstone of the energy transition. The existing tension between mainstream Western countries and the rest of the world is intensifying, not only because of differences in energy transition strategies but also due to the struggle between pro-Israel and anti-Israeli factions. Undoubtedly, the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel is overshadowing global cooperation. The potential for a regional war looms as hostilities by Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups increase. Meanwhile, the mishandling of critical information regarding casualties in Gaza and the responsible parties is stoking unrest in the Arab world. Arab governments, especially Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the UAE, must manage the emotional backlash within their borders while contending with mounting pressure from both Western and Eastern powers to declare their official stances. The repercussions of all these developments will be evident in discussions and governmental meetings in Dubai in the coming weeks. Click here to read… [27]

Jordan cancels Biden summit after hundreds killed in Gaza hospital blast

Jordan has cancelled a summit it was scheduled to host in Amman on Oct 18 with United States President Joe Biden and the Egyptian and Palestinian leaders to discuss Gaza, Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi has said. Safadi said the meeting would be held at a time when the parties could agree to end the “war and the massacres against Palestinians”, blaming Israel with its military campaign for pushing the region to “the brink of the abyss”. Biden was expected to make a whirlwind trip to Israel where he would later head to Jordan and, according to Jordanian officials, meet Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el Sisi and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The US president now will visit only Israel and postpone his travel to Jordan, a White House official said as Biden departed on Oct 17. Jordan’s King Abdullah would have hosted the four-way summit, which would have on its agenda the need to get humanitarian assistance to Gaza to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and tamper the conflict with Israel. Abdullah has blamed Israel for a blast at a Gaza hospital that killed about 500 Palestinians on Tuesday, saying it was a “shame on humanity” and called on Israel to immediately end its military assault on Gaza. Click here to read… [28]

World leaders attend Cairo peace summit to ‘de-escalate’ Israel-Hamas war

Leaders and top officials from more than a dozen countries have gathered in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, for a conference to discuss ways to “de-escalate” the Israel-Hamas war amid growing fears of a wider Middle East conflict. Dubbed the Cairo Summit for Peace, representatives from countries including Jordan, France, Germany, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, the United States, Qatar and South Africa are attending the one-day meeting on Oct 21, together with United Nations and European Union officials. In his opening remarks, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi invited leaders to come to an agreement for a road map to end the “humanitarian catastrophe” in the Gaza Strip and revive a path to peace between Israel and the Palestinians. The plan’s goals included the delivery of aid to Gaza and agreeing to a ceasefire, followed by negotiations leading to a two-state solution, he said. “All civilian lives matter,” Jordan’s King Abdullah said, addressing the summit. “The relentless bombing campaign under way in Gaza as we speak is cruel and unconscionable on every level. It is collective punishment of a besieged and helpless people. It is a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law. It is a war crime.” “Anywhere else, attacking civilian infrastructure and deliberately starving an entire population of food, water, electricity and basic necessities would be condemned. Accountability would be enforced … but not in Gaza,” he added. Click here to read… [29]

China Coast Guard Ship Collides With Philippine Boat in South China Sea

A Chinese coast guard ship collided with a Philippine vessel it was seeking to block in the South China Sea, the Philippines said, marking an escalation in tensions between Beijing and the U.S. ally in a volatile area. The Philippine boat was on its way to deliver supplies to an outpost the country maintains at Second Thomas Shoal, about 100 nautical miles off its coast. A small detachment of marines lives there, on a dilapidated World War-II era ship the Philippines deliberately ran aground in 1999 to assert its rights. China claims Second Thomas Shoal, as it does much of the South China Sea, and calls the presence of the long-grounded ship illegal. To sustain its troops, the Philippines periodically sends supplies such as food, fuel and other materials on two small boats its armed forces contract for the job, with two Philippine coast guard ships escorting them. Each time, China’s coast guard and maritime militia mobilize and maneuver, often in large numbers, to try to obstruct them. In the early hours of Oct 22, that led a Chinese coast guard ship to collide with one of the boats carrying supplies, the Philippines said. A video released by the Philippine armed forces shows the Chinese vessel briefly hitting the Philippine boat, causing a clanging sound. Click here to read… [30]

Health

Sudan facing humanitarian crisis as relief funding dwindles

As Sudan’s civil war enters its sixth month, civilians are facing a colossal humanitarian crisis as relief funding dwindles and army-imposed restrictions strangle its delivery, aid groups and activists told Al Jazeera. Duaa Tariq, a Sudanese activist still in the capital Khartoum, told Al Jazeera about the perceptible change as the lack of adequate nutrition sets in, saying that many people can only eat one meal a day. “People’s faces are becoming very pale and the hunger is striking,” she said. “And there is no news of aid [coming]. INGO [international non-governmental organisation] support is also very low and it has killed the spirit of our volunteers.” Along with rising hunger, Doctors Without Borders, also known by its French acronym MSF, warns that Sudan’s medical sector is on the verge of complete collapse. MSF provides five hospitals across Khartoum with either medical supplies or international specialists, or both. The war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has fractured the country and put at least 24 million people – more than half the population – in dire need of assistance, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Nearly six million people have been uprooted from their homes and are now internally displaced or have fled the country. Click here to read… [31]

Zimbabwe struggles to contain spread of cholera outbreak

Zimbabwe has been struggling to contain spread of cholera outbreak, with the government announcing measures amid fears of a repeat of its 2008 outbreak that sparked a “national emergency”. Cholera cases span all 10 of Zimbabwe’s provinces, with the most alarming spikes in the south-eastern provinces of Masvingo and Manicaland, the epicentre of the crisis. Cholera outbreak has killed more than 100 people and infected 5,000 since February, according to government estimates. To curb the spread, the government has imposed restrictions in vulnerable areas, limiting funerals to 50 people and forbidding attendees from shaking hands or serving food at the gatherings. Authorities are also discouraging people from frequenting open-air markets, unlicensed vendors, or outdoor church camps where sanitation is scarce. Cholera, a water-borne disease caused by ingesting contaminated food or water, often spreads quickly throughout Zimbabwe because of its poor sanitation infrastructure and limited clean water. Many Zimbabweans, especially in remote villages, stay without tap water for months at a time, forcing them to draw from unsafe wells or rivers. Raw sewage spilling from busted pipes and heaps of lingering refuse increase the risk of the disease spreading. Zimbabweans say their struggles to access clean water or water-purification supplies have recently intensified, putting them at greater risk of catching the disease. Click here to read… [32]