Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (02-08 October 2023)

Economic

WTO Forecasts Global Trade Slowdown Amid Economic Headwinds

One day after the Geneva-based UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) warned central banks are at risk of triggering a full-blown global recession in their pursuit of higher interest rates to reach their 2% inflation targets, World Trade Organization economists published a report on Oct 06 morning outlining global growth will be sharply lower than forecasted for the remainder of 2023. WTO economists said world trade and output began to slow in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to the Federal Reserve's tighter monetary policy and tighter monetary policy in Europe and other major economies. A combination of snarled global supply chains, the property market downturn in China, and the consequences of the war in Ukraine add continued downward pressure on international trade. "The trade slowdown appears to be broad-based, involving a large number of countries and a wide array of goods," the economists said, adding, "Trade growth should pick up next year accompanied by slow but stable GDP growth." The Geneva-based institution expects the merchandise trade volume in 2023 to slightly increase by .8% from last year, compared with an April forecast of 1.7%. That's well below the 2.6% annual growth recorded since the global financial crisis about 16 years ago. Click here to read... [2]

UN Calls for Oversight as Crop Trading Worsens Food Crisis

The United Nations called for greater oversight of commodities traders, saying unregulated activity is worsening the global food crisis in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Profiteering from financial activities now drives revenues in global food trading, yet commodity traders circumvent regulations by being regarded as manufacturing companies rather than financial institutions, the UN Conference on Trade and Development said in a report on Oct 04. “It is imperative to develop tools to enhance transparency and accountability in this opaque yet systemically vital global industry,” Unctad said. “Unregulated activity within the commodities sector contributes to speculative price increases and market instability, exacerbating the global food crisis.”Food commodity traders have reaped record profits as Russia’s assault on Ukraine restricted agricultural flows and sent prices soaring, causing hardship for hundreds of millions of people. The UN agency’s call is the latest sign of growing pressure on commodity traders, which have attracted far less scrutiny than banks since the global financial crisis. Unctad’s analysis reveals that unregulated financial activity — through the use of over-the-counter trades or regulatory arbitrage — bolsters the profits of global food traders. Those profits appear to be strongly linked to periods of excessive speculation in commodities markets and to the growth of shadow banking, it said. Click here to read... [3]

Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s Bonds

The autumn bond rout is challenging Wall Street’s longstanding belief that the U.S. government can’t sell too many Treasurys.Ever since the Federal Reserve broke the inflation scare of the 1980s, Wall Street and Washington have shrugged off multitrillion-dollar deficits, counting on America’s global standing to provide perpetual demand for its debt that could finance the spending. Now, the steep declines in prices of Treasurys—meant to be the world’s safest and easiest-to-trade investment—are forcing markets to confront the possibility that the rates required to place all this debt will be higher than anyone expected. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which rises when bond prices fall, briefly surged near 4.9% on Oct 06 after the monthly jobs report showed U.S. employers hired nearly double the workers that economists were anticipating. The strength of the labour market is one reason bond yields have soared this year, reflecting an improved outlook for economic growth and inflation. Another came this summer, after the Treasury Department caught Wall Street off guard by announcing it would borrow roughly $1 trillion in the year’s third quarter, more than a quarter trillion dollars above previous expectations. Already more than $1.76 trillion of Treasurys has been issued on a net basis through September, higher than in any full year in the past decade, excluding 2020’s pandemic surge. Click here to read... [4]

Are China’s state-owned giants about to get even bigger? Party journal flags ‘a matter of survival’

State-owned enterprises must take the lead in ensuring that geopolitical complications and supply-chain upheavals do not stifle China’s hi-tech aspirations in the coming years, according to newly outlined priorities. “Self-reliance in science and technology is not only a matter of development, but also a matter of survival,” the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) said in an article published on Oct 01 in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s most authoritative theoretical journal. “Most state-owned enterprises are in important industries and in key areas related to national security, and they are the lifeline of the national economy,” the commission said. “They are key variables in realising national strategic intentions and responding to changes in the external environment and to major risks and challenges.” It also said that some SOEs remain “big but not strong”, with problems such as insufficient innovation and low return on assets, and this justifies further reform to increase their competitiveness. “We must continue to deepen reforms, play better roles in strategic security, industrial leadership, national economy and public services, and respond to the uncertainty of the external environment with our own high-quality development,” it added. It said it will give more policy support to SOEs to become “the source of original technology” and to pace up research on “fundamental, urgent, cutting-edge, and disruptive” technologies. Click here to read... [5]

U.S. announces sweeping action against Chinese fentanyl supply chain producers

The Biden administration took aim Oct 03 at the fentanyl trafficking threat, announcing a series of indictments and sanctions against Chinese companies and executives blamed for importing the chemicals used to make the deadly drug.Officials described the actions, which include charges against eight Chinese companies accused of advertising, manufacturing and distributing precursor chemicals for synthetic opioids like fentanyl, as the latest effort in their fight against the deadliest overdose crisis in U.S. history. The moves come one day before senior administration officials are set to visit Mexico, whose cartels are part of the global trafficking network, for meetings expected to involve discussion of the drug threat. “We know that this network includes the cartels’ leaders, their drug traffickers, their money launderers, their clandestine lab operators, their security forces, their weapons suppliers, and their chemical suppliers,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said at a news conference. “And we know that this global fentanyl supply chain, which ends with the deaths of Americans, often starts with chemical companies in China.” Besides charging eight companies, the Justice Department also indicted 12 executives for their alleged roles in drug trafficking. In a coordinated action, the Treasury Department announced sanctions against 28 people and companies — mostly in China but also in Canada — that will cut them off from the U.S. financial system and prohibit anyone in the U.S. from doing business with them. Click here to read... [6]

China keeps Sri Lanka in debt grip, stalling IMF relief

Sri Lanka's diplomatic failure to secure a concrete debt relief framework from China, its largest bilateral lender, is blocking access to desperately needed cash under a $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. A visit by IMF officials last month highlighted once again the bankrupt South Asian nation's slow progress in restructuring its external debt. The fund, which has insisted on "financing assurances" from bilateral lenders as a key pillar, gave Sri Lanka a failing grade in the first review of the bailout, denying it a second tranche of $330 million in aid. Now the stakes are rising for an expected mid-October visit to China by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to attend a 10th anniversary summit of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing's regionwide infrastructure building program. Wickremesinghe, government sources say, is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss debt relief. In its statement on the review, the IMF did not point fingers. But multiple diplomatic sources from Asian and Western missions in Colombo told Nikkei Asia that China's foot-dragging on Sri Lanka's debt was an issue. The fund did say that a green light for additional aid "requires the completion of financing reviews," after scrutinizing the country's record since the first injection of $330 million was approved in late March. Click here to read... [7]

China spurned Pakistan's proposals for new Belt and Road projects

China rejected calls to invest in fresh Belt and Road projects in Pakistan, according to the minutes of a high-level meeting between the neighbouring nations, a stance experts chalk up mainly to the political uncertainty and deteriorating security plaguing Islamabad. Two officials who have seen the minutes told Nikkei Asia that the Chinese side turned down Pakistan's suggestions to add more projects related to energy, climate change, electricity transmission lines and tourism under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) -- the $50 billion Pakistani component of the Belt and Road. The minutes also reveal that Beijing declined Islamabad's proposal to build a 500 kilovolt transmission line to connect the southern port of Gwadar -- a focus of Chinese infrastructure investment -- to the national electricity grid from Karachi, according to the officials. At the same time, Beijing forced Pakistan to drop its objections to a 300 megawatt coal-fired power plant in Gwadar, which Islamabad wanted to move to another location where domestic rather than imported coal could be used. The 11th meeting of the Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC), the top decision-making body for CPEC, took place in October last year, but the minutes were signed in July. The officials confirmed local media reports that also highlighted China's reluctance to deepen its presence in Pakistan. Click here to read... [8]

India, Japan launch $600m fund for low carbon emission projects

India's quasi-sovereign wealth fund, the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF), and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) launched on Oct 04 a $600-million fund to invest in sustainability projects. JBIC will contribute 51% of that figure, and India the rest, the Indian government said in a statement. The India-Japan Fund will target investment in sustainable projects in areas such as renewable energy, e-mobility and waste management, the NIIF, launched in 2015 as India's first state-backed fund, said in a statement. It will also look to boost collaboration between Indian and Japanese firms amid an "unstable world situation and problems such as a severed supply chain," said Hayashi Nobumitsu, the governor of the Japanese bank. "Japanese companies are increasingly interested in entering the Indian market as a relocation destination for a production base or an investment destination," he added. Click here to read... [9]

Bangladesh gets first uranium shipment from Russia for its Moscow-built nuclear power plant

Bangladesh on Oct 05 received the first uranium shipment from Russia to fuel the country's only nuclear power plant, still under construction by Moscow. Once finished, the plant is expected to boost Bangladesh’s national electrical grid and help the South Asian nation's growing economy. The Rooppur power plant will produce 2,400 megawatts of electricity — powering about 15 million households — when the twin-unit facility goes fully online. The plant is being constructed by Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation. Moscow has funded the construction with a $11.38 billion loan, to be repaid over two decades, starting from 2027. Once Rooppur starts production, Bangladesh will join more than 30 countries that run nuclear power reactors. The uranium, which arrived in Bangladesh late last month, was handed over to the authorities at a ceremony in Ishwardi, where the plant is located, in the northern district of Pabna on Oct 05. Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Russian President Vladimir Putin joined the ceremony — both by video link. Putin said the plant will cover about 10% of Bangladesh’s energy consumption when launched. He said more than 20,000 people worked on its construction and that over 1,000 people were trained to operate it. “Together with you, we are building not just a nuclear power plant, but the entire atomic industry,” Putin said. Click here to read... [10]

The Rise Of Nuclear Power In The Middle East

In the Middle East and North Africa, several Gulf states are considering, planning, or starting nuclear power programs, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq; Yemen, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, and Sudan. The nuclear energy industry in the Middle East is expanding but is still in the early stages, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) helping several countries across the region to develop nuclear programs. At present, there are only two active nuclear power plants in the Middle East, the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran and the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Bushehr has one operational reactor, while Barakah has four. With several Middle Eastern countries committing to net-zero carbon emissions pledges for the mid-century, nuclear power presents a huge low-carbon alternative to oil and gas, which many states still rely on for their energy provision and revenue. In fact, 90 percent of the energy mix in the Gulf region comes from hydrocarbons. Earlier this year, the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC), the body responsible for developing the UAE’s nuclear energy sector, signed three agreements with China's Nuclear Power Operations Research Institute, the China National Nuclear Corporation Overseas, and the China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation to increase its nuclear power capacity. Click here to read... [11]

Ruble exchange rate to dollar doesn’t matter – Kremlin

The Russian currency’s continued backslide against the US dollar is not a reason for concern, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on Oct 03, calling such worries a “remnant of the past.” The comment follows the rouble’s depreciation past the symbolic threshold of 100 rubles to one dollar on Oct 03 for the first time since mid-August. The currency recovered slightly through the morning to trade just above 99 to the dollar.“Excessive attention to the ruble-dollar exchange rate is possible from an emotional point of view, but rather is a remnant of the past after all,” Peskov told a press briefing. “We have to get used to living in the ruble zone and not feel dependent on the dollar,” he said, adding that the central bank and the government are fully ensuring macroeconomic stability. The rouble’s weakness has been attributed to soaring demand for, and insufficient supply of, foreign currency in the country (including demand from importers) and changes in the country’s trade balance. Experts forecast that the currency could stabilize to 95-96 against the dollar within a month and, by the end of autumn, strengthen to 90.President Vladimir Putin said recently that the rouble’s slide was no cause for concern as the central bank has all the necessary instruments to support the national currency. Click here to read... [12]

OPEC’s Oil Production Grows for Second Month Despite Saudi Cut

OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September from August – the second monthly increase in a row – as higher output in Iran and Nigeria offset the Saudi cuts, the monthly Reuters survey showed on Oct 02. All OPEC members produced 27.73 million bpd in September, as Nigeria and Iran boosted production the most, according to the survey based on vessel-tracking data, consultants, and sources at OPEC and oil firms. Nigeria, which has been lagging behind its quota in the OPEC+ deal, increased its oil production by 110,000 bpd in the absence of major disruptions to exports, the survey found. Iran, exempted from the OPEC+ cuts due to the U.S. sanctions, saw the second-largest increase in oil output within OPEC and is estimated to have pumped 3.15 million bpd in September—the highest since 2018. In the middle of August, a senior Iranian government official was quoted as saying that crude oil exports from Iran had gone up to 1.4 million bpd.Separately, the head of the National Iranian Oil Company has said there were plans to boost oil production to 3.5 million bpd by the end of September. The rises in Nigerian and Iranian production offset a large part of the cuts from Saudi Arabia, which is estimated to have kept its oil output in line with the pledge to pump around 9 million bpd in September, the Reuters survey found. Click here to read... [13]

OPEC Says Oil Industry Needs $14 Trillion Of Investment By 2045

The world needs $14 trillion in cumulative investments in the oil sector by 2045 to ensure market stability and avoid energy and economic chaos, OPEC said in its annual World Oil Outlook on Oct 09. The annual investments need to be around $610 billion on average, the bulk of which should go to the upstream segment, the cartel said, rebuffing calls for a halt in investments in new supply.The cumulative investments in the upstream need to be around $11.1 trillion by 2045 or an average of $480 billion per year. Downstream and midstream requirements are estimated at a total of $1.7 trillion and $1.2 trillion by 2045, respectively.“If these investments do not materialize, it represents a considerable challenge and risk to market stability and energy security,” OPEC said in the annual report, in which it also raised its long-term oil demand forecast to 116 million bpd in 2045, up by 6 million bpd from the demand for that year expected in the 2022 annual outlook. “Ensuring that these investments are made and sustained is a key challenge and of utmost importance to the stability of oil markets and security of supply,” OPEC said in the 2023 outlook.This year, upstream investment is set to rise by 13%, to $360 billion, but this will only bring capital expenditure back to pre-pandemic levels. Click here to read... [14]

US Turns to Private Investment for Minerals Projects

The US is working with a network of private companies to help spur investment in up to 15 global critical-minerals projects designed to create a more secure supply chain of key metals. The consortium, which includes mining and technology firms, will act as sources of information and investment for the Minerals Security Partnership, which comprises of 14 nations including the US, UK, European Union and Japan. The countries, along with some large producing nations, will meet in London on Oct. 10 to discuss how to finance the critical mineral projects, as well as environmental concerns. The focus will be on minerals used in electric car batteries. “We’re now looking at 15 projects on five continents, ranging from extraction to processing,” Jose Fernandez, US under-secretary for economic growth, energy and the environment, said at a press briefing in London on Oct 05. One of those projects may be in the UK. “It’s a project that is very promising that we are eager to support,” he said of the UK project. “No country can do it alone.” Encouraging private sector companies to invest is a crucial part of the partnership’s aim to funnel foreign investment into a sector that supplies the raw materials crucial to the EVs and solar panels that underpin efforts to usher in a greener economy. Click here to read... [15]

China’s Factory Floor Is Moving—But Not to India or Mexico

In the contest to knock China off its perch as the world’s factory floor, countries such as Mexico, India and Vietnam face a formidable rival: China’s vast interior. Low-cost manufacturing is expanding away from China’s bustling coast as companies hunt for cheaper land and labour in central and western provinces. The migration has accelerated in recent years as U.S. tariffs push up costs for factories, and China’s coastal megacities focus on high-tech electronics, electric vehicles and other advanced industries. The result has been an export boom for China’s inland provinces that dwarfs the acceleration in overseas sales enjoyed by would-be rivals to China’s manufacturing crown. As inland China develops further, it is helping China deepen its dominance in swaths of global manufacturing, even as Western nations grow wary of China as a supplier for critical industries such as semiconductors and renewable energy.China still faces major challenges in holding on to its top-dog status. Worsening demographics mean its manufacturing workforce is shrinking, and foreign investment in China is drying up. The U.S. and its allies are dangling subsidies and other incentives to persuade businesses to embrace alternatives to China, though a sizable shift in companies’ sourcing is likely years away, economists say. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Israel officially at war – Netanyahu’s office

Israel’s security cabinet voted on Oct 07 night to officially go to war following a major attack on the country by Palestinian armed group Hamas, the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said. The invocation of Article 40 of Israel’s Basic Law allows the government to take “significant military action that may lead, with a level of probability close to certain, to war,” Netanyahu’s office said on Oct 08. Under the legislation, the prime minister will be able to make certain decisions regarding the war with just the approval of the security cabinet, it added. Netanyahu’s office also said the government had asked the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, to activate emergency regulations allowing for detainees to be held in custody for a longer period without being brought before a court. Netanyahu declared that Israel was at war in his first message a few hours after Hamas fired thousands of rockets at Israel and sent its fighters into Jewish settlements near the border with Gaza on Oct 07 morning. “Citizens of Israel, we are at war. And we will win,” the prime minister said in his address. “The enemy will pay a price like they have never known before,” he vowed, referring to Hamas. ZAKA, a volunteer group that handles human remains after terrorist attacks in Israel, has said that more than 600 Israelis have been killed since the launch of the surprise attack by Hamas. Click here to read... [17]

U.S. to send military ships, aircraft closer to Israel

The United States will send multiple military ships and aircraft closer to Israel as a show of support, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said, with Washington believing Hamas' deadly attacks may have been motivated to disrupt a potential normalizing of Israel-Saudi Arabia ties. Hamas fighters rampaged through Israeli towns as the country suffered its bloodiest day in decades on Oct 07. Israel battered Palestinians with airstrikes in Gaza on Oct 08, with hundreds reportedly killed on both sides. The spiraling violence threatens to start a major new war in the Middle East. At least three Americans were among those killed, CNN reported on Oct 08, citing a U.S. memo. Austin in a statement said he ordered the moving of the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean closer to Israel. The force includes the carrier, a guided-missile cruiser and four guided-missile destroyers. Austin also said the United States had also taken steps to augment U.S. Air Force F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter aircraft squadrons in the region. He said the United States would also provide munitions to Israel. U.S. President Joe Biden told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Oct 08 that additional assistance for the Israeli Defense Forces was on its way to Israel and more would follow in the coming days, the White House said after their call. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris also held a call with Israeli President Isaac Herzog. Click here to read... [18]

UN Security Council meets on Gaza-Israel, but fails to agree on statement

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has met behind closed doors in an emergency session amid the war between Israel and Gaza but failed to achieve the unanimity needed for a joint statement.At least 1,100 people have already been killed since Hamas, the Palestinian group that controls the blockaded Gaza Strip, launched an assault on Israeli towns on Oct 07 and took hundreds of people hostage.Israel retaliated by declaring a state of war and pounding densely-populated Gaza, killing hundreds of people. The United States called on the council’s 15 members to strongly condemn Hamas. “There are a good number of countries that condemned the Hamas attacks. They’re obviously not all,” senior US diplomat Robert Wood told reporters after the session. “You could probably figure out one of them without me saying anything,” said Wood, in a reference to Russia, whose relations with the West have deteriorated sharply since its invasion of Ukraine. The council met for about 90 minutes and heard a briefing from the UN Middle East peace envoy Tor Wennesland. Diplomats said members led by Russia were hoping for a broader focus than condemning Hamas. A statement needs to be agreed upon by consensus. “My message was to stop the fighting immediately and to go to a ceasefire and to meaningful negotiations, which was told for decades” by the Security Council, said Vassily Nebenzia, Russia’s UN ambassador. Click here to read... [19]

‘Dozens’ of civilians being held hostage by Hamas: Israeli military

Dozens of Israelis are being held hostage by the Hamas movement in Gaza, according to an Israeli military spokesperson. Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht said during a news conference on Oct 09 that “dozens” of people were taken hostage, including elderly civilians, families and children. Hecht said Hamas’s attack over the weekend had been “unprecedented” and he could not rule out the possibility that fighters were still crossing the border and entering Israeli territory. He did not confirm the exact numbers and nationalities. Hamas said on Oct 08 it captured more than 100 people. It has said it seeks the release of all Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails – about 4,500 detainees, according to Israeli rights group B’Tselem – in exchange for the Israeli captives. An unknown number of US citizens are among the hostages, according to the Israeli ambassador to the United States. The diplomat, Michael Herzog, was asked on CBS News if there were Americans among the soldiers and civilians that the Palestinian militant group abducted in southern Israel. “I understand there are, but I don’t have details,” he said on Oct 08.On Oct 09, a French lawmaker said that at least eight French nationals were missing, confirmed dead or taken hostage in the recent violence in Israel. Click here to read... [20]

Chinese and Saudi navies launch joint counterterrorism exercise against backdrop of Israel-Hamas war

China and Saudi Arabia have launched a joint naval exercise that is focused on overseas maritime counterterrorism operations, according to Chinese state-owned media. The exercises, attended by more than 100 service personnel from the two militaries, comes as the Middle East is hit by escalating armed conflict between Israel and Hamas. The opening ceremony of the Blue Sword-2023 special warfare joint training was held at a naval brigade camp in Zhanjiang in Guangdong province on Oct 09, according to the Chinese military’s official newspaper, the PLA Daily. “The joint training between the special warfare units of the two navies is of great significance to deepening the pragmatic and friendly cooperation between the two militaries and improving the actual combat training level of the troops,” said the commander of the Chinese joint training unit whose name was not revealed. “It is hoped that the participating officers and troops on both sides will learn from each other, cooperate closely, complete various training courses with high quality and continuously improve their joint action capabilities.” Blue Sword-2023 focuses on overseas maritime counterterrorism operations and comprises three stages: basic training, professional training and comprehensive exercises. Click here to read... [21]

Russia Withdraws Black Sea Fleet Vessels From Crimea Base After Ukrainian Attacks

Russia has withdrawn the bulk of its Black Sea Fleet from its main base in occupied Crimea, a potent acknowledgment of how Ukrainian missile and drone strikes are challenging Moscow’s hold on the peninsula.Russia has moved powerful vessels including three attack submarines and two frigates from Sevastopol to other ports in Russia and Crimea that offer better protection, according to Western officials and satellite images verified by naval experts. The Russian Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.The move represents a remarkable setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose military seizure of Crimea in 2014 marked the opening shots in his attempt to take control of Ukraine. His full-scale invasion of last year has now boomeranged, forcing the removal of ships from a port that was first claimed by Russia in 1783 under Catherine the Great.The withdrawal from Sevastopol follows a series of strikes by Ukraine in recent weeks that have severely damaged Russian vessels and the fleet’s headquarters. The immediate military effects of the move are limited, as the ships will still be able to fire cruise missiles on civilian infrastructure such as ports and power grids, naval experts said. Ukraine’s strikes had already broken the fleet’s blockade of Ukrainian ports, denying Russian access to parts of the Black Sea and opening a new corridor for Ukraine to dispatch economically vital grain shipments. Click here to read... [22]

Russia not looking for ‘more territory’ – Putin

The conflict with Ukraine is not driven by territorial ambitions, Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted in a speech at the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct 05.Putin stressed that Russia is already the largest country in the world and therefore is not motivated by seeking new lands.He noted that Russia still has a lot of work to do in developing the remote Siberian and the Far Eastern regions. “This is not a territorial conflict and is not even the establishment of a regional geopolitical balance,” the president said. “This question is much broader and more fundamental. We are talking about the principles of a new world order.” The Russian leader insisted that a lasting peace can only be established when “everyone feels safe and knows that their opinion is respected.” Elsewhere in his speech, Putin said that Russia was not the one that initiated the conflict in Ukraine but is instead trying to put an end to it. “We were not the ones who organized a bloody coup in Kiev; it wasn’t us who intimidated the Crimeans and Sevastopol residents with Nazi-style ethnic purges. We weren’t the ones who tried to force the Donbass to obey using shellings and bombings. We were not the ones who threatened violence against those who wanted to speak their native language,” Putin said, stressing that it was Kiev that used tanks and artillery to wage war against the Donbass. Click here to read... [23]

China, US need not go head to head, President Xi Jinping tells senators, in strongest sign he may head to Apec summit

China and the United States do not necessarily have to head to a confrontation, President Xi Jinping told visiting American senators on Oct 09. It was the strongest sign yet that he might attend the Apec summit in San Francisco next month, raising hopes also for a meeting with US counterpart Joe Biden. “The Thucydides Trap is not inevitable,” Xi told the bipartisan delegation headed by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, referring to the concept of confrontation between a rising and a dominant power. “The wide world can accommodate China and the US in their respective development and common prosperity.” Beijing has always believed that the common interests of China and the US far outweigh their differences and the success of either country “presents an opportunity, not a challenge” for the other, state news agency Xinhua quoted Xi as saying. The meeting came amid months of efforts to get bilateral ties back on track amid confrontations in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, as well as US-led tech export curbs directed at China. South Korea, a close US ally, said on Oct 09 that Washington would allow major Korean chip makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to import the advanced US machinery they needed to sustain and expand their operations in China, a move that could be seen as a concession by the Biden administration. Click here to read... [24]

Japan, U.S. advance integrated deterrence with early Tomahawk delivery

Japan and the U.S. are bolstering an integrated deterrence strategy in the Asia-Pacific, deploying Tomahawk missiles and surveillance drones to counter growing security challenges from China and North Korea. On Oct 04, Japanese Defense Minister Defense Minister Minoru Kihara told U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin that Tokyo will acquire Tomahawk cruise missiles from the U.S. in fiscal 2025, a year ahead of schedule.Kihara has instructed the Defense Ministry to potentially move up the deployment of homegrown missiles as well. Kihara and Austin at their meeting also reaffirmed the importance of MQ-9 drones in joint surveillance efforts. The U.S. drones are collecting data on Chinese maritime activity near Japan under a one-year trial from the Japan Self-Defense Forces' Kanoya Air Base.The drones are slated to be moved to the U.S. Kadena Air Base in Okinawa after the trial ends in November and will continue to monitor waters near Japan.These discussions come as the U.S. pursues greater integrated deterrence with allies and partners in the Pacific, with concerns growing over Chinese ambitions regarding Taiwan, as well as North Korea's nuclear and missile development. Japan outlined its plan to obtain counterstrike capabilities against enemy missile bases in key defence policy documents adopted at the end of 2022. Click here to read... [25]

Pakistan pledges ‘phased, orderly’ deportation of 1.7 million Afghans

Pakistan will carry out its recently announced plans to deport all migrants who are in the country illegally, including 1.7 million Afghans, in a “phased and orderly manner,” the Foreign Ministry said. The Oct. 6 statement is likely meant to assuage international concerns and calm fears among Afghan refugees in Pakistan after Islamabad unexpectedly announced earlier in the week that all migrants, including the Afghans, without valid documentation will have to go back to their countries voluntarily before Oct. 31 to avoid mass arrests and forced deportation. This sent a wave of panic among those living in this Islamic country without papers and drew widespread condemnation from rights groups. Activists say any forced deportation of Afghans will put them at a grave risk. Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, the spokesperson for Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Oct. 5 the new policy is not aimed at Afghans only. “We have been hosting Afghans refugees generously for the past four decades” when millions of them fled Afghanistan during the 1979-1989 Soviet occupation, she said. Those 1.4 million Afghan nationals who are registered as refugees in Pakistan need not worry, she added. “Our policy is only about ... individuals who are here illegally, no matter what their nationality is,” she added. “But, unfortunately there has been a misunderstanding or misrepresentation and for some reason people have starting associating this with Afghan refugees.” Click here to read... [26]

Imran Khan to Be Indicted in Pakistan Secrets Act Case Next Week

Pakistan’s jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan will be formally charged for leaking state secrets on Oct. 17 after the Federal Investigation Agency submitted the result of a probe to the court. The judge of a special court Abual Hasnat Muhammad Zulqarnain, who held a hearing against Khan on Oct 09, will start the trial after his indictment, Khan’s lawyer Shoaib Shaheen said by phone. Shah Mahmood Qureshi, who was Khan’s foreign minister when the cable was leaked, will also be indicted in the same case, the lawyer said. Both deny the charges. If found guilty, the accused may be sentenced up to 14 years in prison, Shaheen said. Khan is already in jail after a separate court found him guilty of hiding assets he obtained from selling gifts he received from foreign leaders when he was the prime minister. Click here to read... [27]

Why Kenya volunteered to lead UN-approved forces to Haiti

The United Nations Security Council on Oct 02 approved the deployment of international forces led by Kenya to curb escalating gang violence in Haiti. The Caribbean country of more than 11 million people, which had requested international assistance more than a year ago to curb the rising insecurity in the country, welcomed the decision. “The Haitian people say thank you very much to the Security Council and the Secretary-General of the United Nations,” Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry said on X, formerly Twitter, shortly after the UN vote. Henry also thanked the East African country for taking the lead in proposing to send troops to Haiti.The resolution authorises the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission “to take all necessary measures” to stem the violence. The international forces are not deploying under the UN peace mission. They will be overseen by Kenyan forces, which received authorisation from the UN. The 2007 African Union intervention in Somalia to combat armed groups was also authorised by the UN.Why are foreign forces needed?Haiti has recorded 3,000 homicides and more than 1,500 kidnappings for ransom between January and September this year, according to the UN. Gang-related violence has spiked since the assassination of President Jovenel Moise two years ago. Click here to read... [28]

US Weaves Web of Intelligence Links in Asia to Counter China

The US is deepening intelligence cooperation with countries across Asia as it looks to counter Beijing’s sophisticated spying apparatus and blunt Chinese cyber attacks. The Biden administration has developed a set of separate but overlapping partnerships in Asia, including an intelligence-sharing arrangement with the “Quad” grouping of the US, India, Japan and Australia, according to US officials who asked not to be identified discussing matters that aren’t public. The web of relationships also includes trilateral partnerships among the US, Japan and South Korea, and one encompassing the US, Japan and the Philippines, the officials said. The push also involves strengthened bilateral sharing of information with Japan, India and Vietnam, according to the officials, who added that a major focus of these relationships is boosting resilience to Chinese offensive operations online. These new and strengthened partnerships, known formally as intelligence liaison relationships, are in part aimed at reducing the growing power of China’s spy apparatus, which a recent UK parliamentary report described as the world’s largest. The administration effort is part of a broader drive to deepen links across the region amid growing alarm at the threat from Beijing. “Intelligence liaison can serve as an important force multiplier,” said Daniel Byman, a specialist on the topic at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Click here to read... [29]

Italy Is On Track for Highest Numbers of Migrant Arrivals Since 2016

Italy is on track to receive the biggest number of migrant arrivals since 2016 this year, a phenomenon that will likely keep dominating the agenda of Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government. More than 133,220 people have made the journey across the Mediterranean by boat since the start of this year through Sept. 30, according to UNHCR data released on Oct 02, helped by unseasonably mild weather. That’s in line with the nine-month totals in 2015 and 2016 — when the annual tally then exceeded 150,000 and 180,000 people, respectively — and about 5,000 fewer than in 2014, which saw a yearly number of 170,100 sea arrivals.Italy’s geography means that its tiny island of Lampedusa — situated between Tunisia and Sicily — has for years been a catchall for boats trying to cross the Mediterranean in hopes of starting a new life in Europe. Meloni’s government has signalled increasing alarm at the accumulation of people arriving so far in 2023, and wants the European Union to take a bigger role in sharing the burden. That’s a topic that will feature heavily in a summit of leaders later this week. “We are facing unprecedented migration pressure linked to instability of large areas of Africa and Middle East,” Meloni said in a Facebook post on Oct 02. “The Italian government is working daily to push back against illegal migration.” Click here to read... [30]

Armenian Exodus Marks a New Front in East-West Power Tussle

Presenter Marianna Ghahramanyan dissolved into tears on live television as she read out the breaking news that her nation’s dream had died.Apologizing, the experienced broadcaster tried again to tell her viewers that Armenian authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh had announced the dissolution of their breakaway republic after more than three decades of fighting for independence against Azerbaijan. Tears choked her words once more. “It was so painful,” Ghahramanyan, 39, recalled later at a café in Armenia’s capital, Yerevan. “It’s a personal tragedy for me and a huge tragedy for my people.” The exodus of practically the entire Armenian population from the region they call Artsakh has underlined the scale of the trauma. More than 100,000 people have flooded into Armenia, abandoning their homes and possessions in the rush to leave since Azerbaijan took full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in a lightning military attack.The sudden resolution to one of the world’s most intractable conflicts resonates way beyond the Caucasus, a hotbed of ethnic unrest since the demise of the Soviet Union. It is now bound up more tightly in a new great-power struggle as the US, Russia, Turkey and Europe vie for dominance in a region that’s a vital bridge to the energy and mineral wealth of central Asia. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Covid-19 vaccine scientists win Nobel Prize

Two scientists have been awarded the Nobel Prize in medicine for their pioneering research that led to the development of mRNA vaccines, which helped curb the spread of Covid-19, it was announced early on Oct 02 in Stockholm, Sweden. Dr. Katalin Kariko and Dr. Drew Weissman will share the prize almost two decades after first publishing a 2005 paper examining the potential benefits of mRNA technology. Their research received little attention at the time but the Nobel Prize committee praised the scientists’ “groundbreaking findings,” which they said “fundamentally changed our understanding of how mRNA interacts with our immune system.” “The laureates contributed to the unprecedented rate of vaccine development during one of the greatest threats to human health in modern times,” the committee said in a statement on Oct 02. Kariko and Weissman were both said to be “overwhelmed” by the news when they were notified by telephone of their win. Traditional vaccine technology uses dead or weakened samples from a source bacterium or virus to prepare a person’s immune system to recognize and attack threats. mRNA, by comparison, prompts cells to make a protein based on a single strand of genetic code. In the case of the mRNA Covid-19 vaccines, it leads to cells producing the virus’ spike protein, which the immune system subsequently recognizes as foreign, preparing it to fight off a future infection. Click here to read... [32]

Dengue fever coming to US and Europe – WHO

Dengue fever will become endemic in parts of the US, Europe, and Africa over the next decade due to climate change and urbanization, World Health Organization Chief Scientist Jeremy Farrar told Reuters on Oct 06. Farrar claimed that the disease would “take off” in these regions over the coming decade as the mosquitoes that spread it migrate to previously inhospitable areas of the southern US, Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa. “We need to talk much more proactively about dengue,” he told Reuters. “We need to really prepare countries for how they will deal with the additional pressure that will come… in the future in many, many big cities.” Dengue fever has long been endemic to much of Southeast Asia and Latin America. It typically causes 20,000 deaths annually, and Reuters noted that cases have risen eightfold since 2000, as climate change expands the habitat of dengue-carrying mosquitoes and growing cities provide the insects with ample opportunities to feed. Bangladesh is currently experiencing its worst-ever outbreak of dengue, with more than 208,000 cases and 1,000 deaths recorded since January, according to the Bengali Directorate General of Health Service. Europe saw more locally acquired dengue cases last year than the entire decade beforehand, while isolated cases were recorded in Florida and Texas. Click here to read... [33]