Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (11-17 September)

Economic

China outlines plan to make Fujian a zone for development with Taiwan

China disclosed on Sept 12 more details of its plan to make southeastern Fujian province a zone for integrated development with Taiwan, including financial market initiatives. Beijing said in 2020 that it supports Fujian in exploring a new path for integrated development with Taiwan. On Sept 12, state news agency Xinhua reported that Beijing will encourage Taiwanese firms in the province to list on Chinese stock exchanges, citing a statement jointly issued by the Communist Party of China's Central Committee and the State Council. It also said Beijing will support innovative ways of cross-strait capital cooperation and encourage the setup of an integration development fund but did not give further details. China has in recent years increased its military presence near the democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, with Beijing saying it aims to prevent Taiwan independence. Taiwan strongly rejects China's sovereignty claims. At the same time, China has not stopped crafting long-term economic and social plans for Taiwan, which it envisions would one day be "reunified" with China, even if by force.Click here to read… [2]

China leads high-tech research in 80% of critical fields: report

China leads advanced technological research in 80% of critical fields including hypersonics and underwater drones, a report from an Australian think tank shows, as the country pulls ahead of the U.S., Europe and Japan through state-led investment. Out of 23 technologies analyzed by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), China leads research in 19. The rankings are based on the 10% most cited academic papers among 2.2 million published between 2018 and 2022, with a focus on fields considered key to the trilateral security partnership among the U.S., the U.K. and Australia, or AUKUS. The U.S. leads in the remaining four technologies. China accounts for 73.3% of high-impact research output for hypersonic detection, tracking and characterization, far ahead of the U.S., U.K. and Germany. Hypersonic missiles, which fly at more than five times the speed of sound, are seen as a potentially game-changing weapon. China is developing hypersonic missiles that are faster and have less predictable trajectories in order to penetrate enemies' missile defence networks. The ASPI report says there is a high risk of China dominating in the technology, considering how far it is ahead of its competitors and the concentration of institutions producing high-impact research in the country. In autonomous underwater vehicles, China accounts for 56.9% of important research. Second-ranked U.S. accounts for just 9.5%.Click here to read… [3]

Foreign direct investment in China drops despite efforts to attract overseas capital

Foreign direct investment in China dropped by more than 5 per cent in the first eight months of the year despite an all-out effort to attract foreign capital, according to official figures. The Ministry of Commerce, said it had fallen by 5.1 per cent in the first eight months of 2023, year on year, to 847.2 billion yuan (US$117 billion). The ministry, which has not yet published the number in US dollar terms, said the decline was due to the slow recovery of the global economy and a high base last year. From January to July, the US-dollar-denominated total had fallen by 9.8 per cent from a year earlier to US$111.8 billion, according to the ministry. “Foreign investment is a market behaviour, and periodic fluctuations are normal. We need to look at both scale and structure, as well as both the present and the long term,” the ministry’s official release said. The actual use of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the manufacturing sector rose by 6.8 per cent year on year from January to August, and that in hi-tech manufacturing increased by 19.7 per cent, which means the quality of investment has continued to improve, the official said. During that period, 33,154 new foreign-invested firms were set up across the country, increasing by 33 per cent compared with the same time last year, and the figures reflected “the confidence of foreign investors in long-term investment in China,” according to the official.Click here to read… [4]

China May Dodge Deflation, After All

China’s economy appears to have survived its near miss with a damaging bout of consumer-price deflation—for now. After a grim June and July, China’s main August economic data, released Sept 15, contained clear hints of improvement. The news from the critical housing sector, which is mired in a protracted slump, was less encouraging: Price falls accelerated in lower-tier cities. But growth in retail sales accelerated to 4.6% from a year earlier, from just 2.5% in July. Unemployment ticked down marginally. And the past few weeks have witnessed a flurry of measures to support lending: Easier terms for second-time mortgage borrowers, and a big cut to banks’ reserve-requirement ratios on Sept 14. All of this makes a protracted fall in consumer prices—which could trap China in a 1990s Japan-like cycle of falling prices and ultra-thrifty consumers—less likely. Chinese consumers remain very cautious and still appear to be saving at much higher levels than before the pandemic. But things have clearly improved somewhat in recent weeks. Most notably, job seekers in services—the economy’s biggest sector—seem to be having better luck. The services-sector purchasing-managers employment subindex, which plummeted in line with construction employment this spring, has now begun rising again—although it remains below the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction. Some high frequency measures of consumer activity, including traffic congestion in major cities, also started to rebound in the late summer, according to Goldman Sachs.Click here to read… [5]

Unwinding China’s US$8 trillion local debt crisis a ‘monumental challenge’, but can Beijing find the cash?

Local governments need immediate liquidity to prevent public defaults, according to policy advisers and analysts, although there are doubts about bolder measures from Beijing to resolve the ongoing debt crisis. Over the past few decades, China has largely relied on rapid economic growth to support its debt level. But the deteriorating financial health of some indebted local governments has become a key concern for policymakers and investors amid China’s slower-than-expected recovery. The People’s Bank of China said last month that there will be “coordinated” financial support to resolve local government debt risks, although there is rising fear that the central government’s response might be too slow. “I don’t think the central government had properly considered the consequence [of curbing local governments borrowing],” Yao Yang, dean of Peking University’s National School of Development, said at a seminar last week. “I would suggest allowing local governments to sell 2 trillion yuan (US$275 billion) to 3 trillion yuan of sovereign debt to survive … this is a crisis, it is an urgent thing to do.” Over the past few years, the central government has clamped down on the use of off-budget borrowing by local governments. US rating agency Standard & Poor’s estimated that local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) – created to aid off-budget financing, especially for infrastructure spending – collectively owe about 60 trillion (US$8.2 trillion) in debt.Click here to read… [6]

US VC firm BlueRun’s China arm ditches Silicon Valley brand after Sequoia amid rising US scrutiny on tech investment

BlueRun Ventures China, the Chinese affiliate of Silicon Valley-based venture capital house BlueRun Ventures (BRV), has given up the English name it shares with its US counterpart, in a fresh sign of the bifurcation of venture capital in the world’s two largest economies. BRV China, which manages over 15 billion yuan (US$2 billion) in assets, has changed its English brand to Lanchi Ventures, the Beijing-based company said in a statement on Sept 13. Lanchi is the romanisation of the firm’s Chinese name. The move comes as the US under President Joe Biden has ramped up scrutiny of American investment in China’s technology sector, including in the areas of artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced semiconductors. Beijing has likewise grown more suspicious of US capital flowing into the sector. The China affiliates of US venture capital houses, which have been an important source of US funds for Chinese start-ups, have been playing down their ties with American institutions. Sequoia Capital, one of the largest VC investors in China, said in June that it was spinning off its Chinese arm into an independent operation called Hong Shan as part of a global restructuring.Click here to read… [7]

EU unafraid of trade war with China

The EU insisted on Sep 15 that its economy could survive any retaliation from China, after Beijing warned that Brussels' probe into Chinese electric car subsidies would harm trade relations. Europe put itself at risk of a trade war when European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced the anti-subsidy investigation on Sep 13, accusing China of keeping car prices "artificially low by huge state subsidies". The investigation could see the European Union try to protect European carmakers by imposing punitive tariffs on cars it believes are unfairly sold at a lower price. The day after von der Leyen's announcement, the Chinese commerce ministry hit back at the EU's "naked protectionism” and said the measures "will have a negative impact on China-EU economic and trade relations". Trade with China makes up around 2.5 per cent of eurozone GDP, but economy commissioner Paolo Gentiloni appeared to be unfazed by the warning when asked about whether the bloc's economy could survive any tariffs. "I'm confident, but we have to address this issue very seriously. I think there is no specific reason for retaliation but retaliation is always possible," he said, before a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in the Spanish city of Santiago de Compostela.Click here to read… [8]

Panama's Water Crisis Is Reshaping Global Trade

The proximate cause of the backup is severe drought. That makes sense on its face because the canal is full of water and that water has to come from somewhere. In a tropical country with copious rainfall—260 cm (102 inches) on average for the whole country in 2021—one wonders what passes for drought. (For comparison, I used to live in Portland, Oregon, a rather damp city with 44 inches of annual rainfall.) But inadequate rain during Panama's rainy season has left two artificial lakes which feed the canal low on water. These lakes must supply 200 million litres (53 million gallons) of fresh water for each ship that transits the canal, water that is lost to the ocean. During the Panama Canal Authority's fiscal 2022 year more than 14,000 vessels transited the canal. This matters doubly because these lakes also supply drinking water to half of all Panamanians. The result is that the Canal Authority must ration water to the locks, decreasing the depth of the water and keeping many ships from carrying full loads that would cause the ships to hit the bottom of the locks. It has also had to limit the total number of ships making the trip in order to conserve water.Click here to read… [9]

Global oil market faces acute shortage – IEA

Oil markets could face the sharpest supply shortage in more than a decade at the end of this year due to extended output cuts by major producers Saudi Arabia and Russia, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Sep 13. A “significant supply shortfall” may trigger price volatility on the market amid insufficient global inventories, the agency said. It expects oil markets to face a deficit of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of the year after Moscow and Riyadh announced plans to extend export and output cuts for the duration of 2023. Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a separate report on Sep 12 that the shortfall may reach 3.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter if leaders of the OPEC+ group maintain their production cuts. Last week, Russia announced it would extend its voluntary cut in oil exports by 300,000 bpd by the end of the year to balance global oil markets. Riyadh followed suit and also extended its 1 million bpd voluntary production cut through December. Crude inventories will be severely depleted by 2024 even if Moscow and Riyadh were to lift their curbs, exposing oil prices to “shocks,” the IEA warned. Global benchmark Brent climbed above $92 per barrel on Sep 13, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at almost $89 per barrel.Click here to read… [10]

Japan will ensure stable energy supply even with U.S. sanctions

Japan will ensure stable and steady energy supply to the country even after the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions related to Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said on Sep 12. The Arctic LNG 2 project is operated by Russia’s Novatek while Japanese trading company Mitsui & Co. and state-owned Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) hold a combined 10% stake. Mitsui and JOGMEC are set to receive a combined 2 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year from the project. The latest sanctions are part of several economic measures the U.S., Europe and their allies have taken against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. They include a soft price cap on Russian oil and fuel exports and restrictions on Russian access to the global banking system. “In cooperation with the G7 including the United States, we will make a comprehensive judgment and take appropriate measures to make sure the stable supply of energy to Japan,” Hirokazu told a news conference. He also told reporters that the government was gathering information about the sanctions and its possible impact to Japan.Click here to read… [11]

As OPEC’s Energy Influence Wanes, China’s Minerals Clout Rises

From OPEC’s oil embargo on the U.S. in the 1970s to Russia’s cutoff of gas to Western Europe last year, unsavoury regimes have weaponized their control of oil and gas to pursue strategic goals. The transition to green energy has the potential to neuter the oil and gas weapon for good. Yet we might simply be swapping one form of commodity dependence and its geopolitical baggage for another. Wind, sun and hydrogen are free. But the equipment that transforms them into energy, stores it in batteries and transmits it needs vast quantities of minerals whose supply is more concentrated than that of oil and gas. Democratic Republic of Congo has 43% of the world’s cobalt deposits, Argentina 34% of lithium, Chile 30% of copper and Indonesia 19% of nickel, according to data from S&P Global. All exceed Saudi Arabia’s 12% share of global oil production and Russia’s 16% share of natural-gas output. For all four minerals, the five largest countries have more than half of global deposits. With oil and gas, the top five control less than half, the S&P figures show. Downstream production is even more concentrated: China refines 70% of the world’s cobalt, 65% of its lithium and 42% of its copper, far exceeding OPEC’s share of oil output.Click here to read… [12]

10% of Japan’s population aged 80 or older for first time

The graying of Japanese society seems to have turned a lot grayer. Figures published by the internal affairs ministry ahead of Sept. 18, Respect-for-the-Aged Day, show that those aged 80 and older for the first time represent 10 percent of the population. An estimated 36.23 million people in Japan were aged 65 or older as of Sept. 15. The percentage of the total population rose to a record 29.1 percent, up 0.1 point from 2022. But the number fell for the first time since comparable statistics became available in 1950 because the demographic group now reaching the age of 65 is relatively small. An estimated 20.51 million women were aged 65 or older, unchanged from 2022 and accounting for 32.1 percent of the female population. The number of men aged 65 or older fell 10,000 to an estimated 15.72 million, or 26 percent of the male population. The number of people aged 75 or older increased by 720,000 from 2022 to an estimated 20.05 million and exceeded the 20 million mark for the first time. The age group includes many of the baby-boomers born in 1947 through 1949. The number of people aged 80 or older rose 270,000 to an estimated 12.59 million, accounting for 10 percent of the total population.Click here to read… [13]

Colombian Cocaine Production Sees Record Surge

Colombia has set a record in the estimated production of cocaine, the United Nations said Sep 11, as President Gustavo Petro’s government tries a less punitive approach to fighting drugs. The amount of cocaine manufactured in Colombia, the world’s largest producer, rose to 1,738 tons in 2022, compared with 1,400 tons the year before, a 24% increase, with the cocaine shipped not only to the U.S. but increasingly to Europe and other continents, said officials presenting the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime’s annual report on Colombia’s cocaine trade. Some 22 million people worldwide consume the drug. The amount of land used to grow coca—the green leaves that are mulched and processed into cocaine—expanded 13% from 504,000 acres in 2021 to 568,000 acres last year. Though a record, Colombian and U.N. officials noted that the rise in plantings appeared to have slowed in 2022. In the U.N.’s previous report, the plantings increased 43% from 2020 to 2021. The size of Colombia’s coca fields and the production of cocaine has been rising fast since 2013, when the government of then-President Juan Manuel Santos began a process that by 2015 phased out a U.S.-sponsored program to spray coca fields from crop dusters with the herbicide glyphosate. In peace talks with the FARC rebel group at the time, the government agreed to urge farmers to eradicate coca and cultivate legal crops with state aid.Click here to read… [14]

Tensions Over Ukrainian Grain Split European Union

Russia’s blockage of Ukrainian food exports has become a painful political issue next door in the European Union, where Brussels decided Sept 15 to end EU restrictions on Ukrainian grain purchases but the bloc’s eastern flank immediately rejected the decision. Decisions by Poland, Hungary and Slovakia to ban Ukrainian grain bring to a head a long-running dispute between Brussels and the EU’s eastern members. The disagreement has rekindled tensions within the bloc and driven a wedge between Ukraine and Poland, one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies throughout the war with Russia. Sep 15’s decision by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, came after weeks of negotiations aimed at finding a compromise. Ukraine was threatening to take the bloc to the World Trade Organization to sue for compensation. Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, which border Ukraine and argue they have borne the brunt of an influx of inexpensive Ukrainian grain, had warned they would act alone to keep it out. Coming elections in Poland have complicated negotiations. The ruling Law and Justice Party has campaigned heavily in the countryside with promises to protect Polish farmers already hurt by the influx of Ukrainian grain caused by Russia’s recent withdrawal from a yearlong grain deal. “We will extend this ban, despite their disagreement,” said Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, speaking at a campaign rally in northeastern Poland.Click here to read… [15]

Afghanistan's $6.5bn mine deals with China, others dig up questions

An Afghan Taliban drive to stabilize the economy and improve sentiment toward the regime through new mining deals with Chinese and other companies is drawing scepticism. Faced with international sanctions and a bleak economic outlook, the Taliban administration at the end of last month announced seven contracts worth $6.5 billion for the extraction and processing of gold, iron ore, lead and zinc across several provinces. Shahabuddin Delawar, the Taliban's mining and petroleum minister, said the contracts had been awarded to Afghan companies and foreign partners. He did not disclose specifics of the Afghan companies, the scope of the partnerships or implementation timelines. The contracts show growing interest in Afghanistan's resources among China and other countries despite serious security risks. China on Sep 13 also became the first to send a new ambassador to Kabul since the Taliban takeover, appointing Zhao Xing, although no country has formally recognized the regime and Beijing said the move was part of a regular rotation. The Taliban's mining contracts follow other resource deals with China and highlight the regime's strategy both for shoring up the Afghan economy and cementing its own rule. Since the Taliban returned to power in the vacuum left by withdrawing U.S.-led forces in August 2021, the regime has faced dire economic challenges as Western development aid dried up, but like previous Afghan governments, it hopes to harness the country's untapped mineral wealth.Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

The Old World Order is over – Blinken

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has claimed the world is transitioning to a new diplomatic order in which Washington must lead the way in overcoming increasing threats from Russia and China. “One era is ending, a new one is beginning, and the decisions that we make now will shape the future for decades to come,” Blinken said on Sep 13 in a speech at John Hopkins University in Washington. He said the “post-Cold War order” ended as “decades of relative geopolitical stability have given way to an intensifying competition with authoritarian powers.” Those powers are led by Russia and China, Blinken said, adding that “Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine is the most immediate, the most acute threat to the international order.” China poses the biggest long-term challenge, he claimed, because it aspires to reshape the international order and is developing the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do so. “Beijing and Moscow are working together to make the world safe for autocracy through their ‘no limits’ partnership,” Blinken argued. He claimed that Russia and China have framed the existing order as a “Western imposition,” but that system is, he claimed, anchored in universal values and enshrined in international law. Ironically, he also accused the two rivals of believing that big countries can “dictate their choices to others,” a charge that is increasingly made against Washington.Click here to read… [17]

Biden’s Rough September: Auto Strike, Son’s Indictment, Inflation, Impeachment Inquiry

September keeps getting worse for President Biden. Hours after his son was indicted last week, auto workers went on strike, walking out of plants owned by three major car companies. A possible government shutdown looms at the end of the month, and House Republicans have launched an impeachment inquiry. Gas prices are rising, and Biden’s poll numbers remain underwater as he campaigns for a second term. Biden has responded by portraying Republicans as more focused on theatrics than legislation. The White House pointed to Biden’s actions in September as evidence of his leadership, citing investments in fighting cancer, the rollout of new Covid-19 boosters and dispatching top officials to Detroit to help support the United Auto Workers. “The president is focused on one thing: delivering for the American people,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Dalton said. Here is a closer look at the biggest problems on Biden’s plate: The walkout by UAW workers at three plants comes after the union failed to clinch new labour deals with General Motors, Ford Motor and Jeep-maker Stellantis for about 146,000 U.S. factory workers. Republicans are aiming to put Hunter Biden’s broader business dealings squarely at the centre of the 2024 election. Announcing the impeachment inquiry Sep 12, Speaker Kevin McCarthy said that House Republicans “have uncovered serious and credible allegations into President Biden’s conduct” related to his son’s activities.Click here to read… [18]

Putin and North Korea's Kim discuss military matters, Ukraine war and satellites

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for a rare summit on Sep 13 at which they discussed military matters, the war in Ukraine and possible Russian help for the secretive Communist state's satellite programme. Putin showed Kim around Russia's most advanced space rocket launch site in Russia's Far East and discussed the possibility of sending a North Korean cosmonaut into space. Kim, who arrived by train from North Korea, asked detailed questions about rockets as Putin showed him around the Vostochny Cosmodrome. After the tour, Putin, 70, and Kim, 39, held talks for several hours with their ministers and then discussed world affairs and possible areas of cooperation one-on-one, followed by an opulent lunch of Russian "pelmeni" dumplings stuffed with Kamchatka crab and then sturgeon with mushrooms and potatoes. Kim raised a toast with a glass of Russian wine to Putin's health, to the victory of "great Russia" and to Korean-Russian friendship, predicting victory for Moscow in its "sacred fight" with the West in the Ukraine war. "The Russian army and people will certainly win a great victory in the sacred struggle for the punishment of a great evil that claims hegemony and feeds an expansionist illusion," Kim said, raising his glass.Click here to read… [19]

US outlines major revamp of aerospace forces as it faces threat posed by China

The US is preparing to revamp its aerospace forces’ operations in the western Pacific as part of a deterrence strategy against China, a US Air Force official has said, as Beijing attempts to boost its air force and navy missions near its coast. On Sept 11, US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said senior leadership would look to reorganise itself and the Space Force in the coming months for better operation “in an era of great power competition” with China. He made the comment during his keynote address at the Air and Space Forces Association’s Air, Space and Cyber Conference in National Harbour, Maryland. Kendall stressed that the air force had no choice but to change to counter the threat from China, which has been modernising its air and naval forces, and has a rocket force capable of targeting US strategic military assets. He said the US must prepare for a “kind of war we have no modern experience with”. “Our job is to deter that war and to be ready to win if it occurs,” Kendall said. “We’re all talking about the fact that the air and space forces must change, or we could fail to prevent and might even lose a war.Click here to read… [20]

Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu does not attend meeting, continuing public absence

Beijing remained silent about the absence of Defence Minister Li Shangfu on Sep 16 as speculation about his whereabouts intensified. Li, the public face of China’s military, was conspicuously missing from a major military meeting on Sep 15, according to footage aired on the state broadcaster CCTV, extending an unexplained public absence now in its third week. Li’s name was also not included in a report by state news agency Xinhua on the meeting. His continued disappearance from public view has raised questions about the whereabouts of the general and his political future. Li also missed a meeting with senior Vietnamese defence officials scheduled on September 7 and 8. At that time, Reuters quoted Vietnamese officials saying that Li’s absence was due to “health reasons”. The last public appearance of Li, 65, was at the China-Africa Peace and Security Forum in Beijing on August 29, when he delivered a keynote speech. Li’s disappearance follows the unexplained weeks of absence this summer by then foreign minister Qin Gang, including missing out an international summit due to “health reasons”. Qin was replaced as foreign minister in July by his predecessor, Wang Yi.Click here to read… [21]

China blacklists Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin unit over Taiwan arms sales

Beijing has announced sanctions on two American companies over arms sales to Taiwan, warning of “forceful” retaliation against any further US military deals with the island. Without saying what action Beijing would take, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Sep 15 that the sanctions applied to Northrop Grumman and a unit of Lockheed Martin. Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the St Louis, Missouri, branch of Lockheed Martin was the main contractor in a US arms sale to Taipei on August 24 while Northrop Grumman, based in Falls Church, Virginia, had been involved in supplying weapons to Taiwan “multiple times”. Mao said Washington was “going further down the wrong and dangerous path of arming Taiwan” despite Beijing’s “firm opposition”. “We urge the US side … to stop selling weapons to Taiwan, to stop the US-Taiwan military collusion and to stop arming Taiwan, otherwise it will be met with resolute and forceful countermeasures of China,” she said. The State Department announced three weeks ago that the US had approved a half-billion-dollar sale of advanced sensor systems built by Lockheed Martin for F-16 fighter jets to Taipei. Lockheed Martin – along with Raytheon Missiles and Defence – was already on a Chinese Commerce Ministry blacklist over Taiwan arms sales.Click here to read… [22]

US and Bahrain Sign Security Pact That May Become Model for Middle East

The US and Bahrain have upgraded their defence relationship under a new security and economic deal that could become a template for Washington’s commitments to other Middle East allies including Saudi Arabia. The agreement, known as the Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement, or C-SIPA, aims to promote cooperation between the US and Bahrain across areas including defence, security, technology and trade. The deal is a significant boost for Bahrain at a time when other countries in the oil-exporting Persian Gulf, including regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are seeking more formal security guarantees from the US. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa signed the pact in Washington Sep 13 after nearly a year of talks. “We’re looking forward to using this agreement as a framework for additional countries that may wish to join us in strengthening regional stability, economic cooperation, and technological innovation,” Blinken said at the signing ceremony for the deal. A tiny island connected by bridge to its much bigger neighbour Saudi Arabia, Bahrain already hosts the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, which is essentially responsible for the Middle East, and is classified by the US as a major non-NATO ally. The pact upgrades the US security commitment to Bahrain, but stops short of a NATO-style Article 5 defence guarantee that would require it to respond to an attack on its ally as an attack on itself.Click here to read… [23]

Maduro Says Venezuela, China Entering ‘New Era’ After Trip

President Xi Jinping said China and Venezuela agreed to enter into a strategic partnership, a sign the two nations are improving ties after years of estrangement. Xi earlier met President Nicolás Maduro in Beijing on Sep 13 for their first sit-down since 2018. China and Venezuela also agreed to deepen cooperation in various fields, state broadcaster China Central Television reported after the talks. “We’re organizing an agenda for a new era in the relationship between China and Venezuela,” Maduro said in a live transmission from Beijing after their meeting. “It’s a cooperation based on mutual respect where energy and oil are at the axis.” The two countries signed a flurry of agreements spanning from mining and space exploration to oil production and agriculture, Maduro said without adding any specifics. The visit comes amid worsening strain between Washington and Beijing and as President Joe Biden seeks to engage Venezuela — which has the world’s largest crude reserves — in talks to lift sanctions in exchange for allowing fair elections next year. Relations between Caracas and Beijing soured for several years after major Chinese projects were abandoned and Venezuela had difficulty servicing loans during its economic slump. Maduro’s government wants to raise more money from Venezuela’s massive oil wealth before his expected bid for a third presidential term.Click here to read… [24]

Britain, France, Germany to uphold ballistic, nuclear sanctions on Iran

Britain, France and Germany have announced they will keep their sanctions on Iran related to the country’s atomic programme and its development of ballistic missiles. The measures were to expire in October under a timetable spelled out in the now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers. In a joint statement on Sep 14, the three European allies – known as E3, and partners in helping to negotiate the nuclear deal – said they would retain their sanctions in a “direct response to Iran’s consistent and severe noncompliance” with the accord, also known by its official name as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The measures ban Iran from developing ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons and bar anyone from buying, selling or transferring drones and missiles to and from Iran. They also include an asset freeze for several Iranian individuals and entities involved in the nuclear and ballistic missile programme. Iran has violated the sanctions by developing and testing ballistic missiles and sending drones to Russia for its war on Ukraine. The sanctions will remain in place until Tehran “is fully compliant” with the deal, the E3 said. The sanctions, according to the accord from eight years ago, were to expire on October 18.Click here to read… [25]

Mapping Libya’s catastrophic flood damage in Derna after Storm Daniel

Nearly 10,000 people are missing in Libya after a severe storm slammed into its eastern coast this week, according to the Red Cross. The death toll stands at 6,000 and is expected to rise as operations continue to recover bodies. “The death toll is huge and might reach thousands,” said Tamer Ramadan of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. Why was the storm so deadly? Storm Daniel formed over Greece on September 4. It caused strong winds, heavy rains, flooding and deaths there and in Turkey and Bulgaria before crossing the Mediterranean. The storm made landfall in Libya a few days later, causing flooding on Sep 10 in cities along its eastern coast, including Benghazi, Bayda and Derna. Derna was the hardest hit after two dams burst upstream from the city, releasing an estimated 30 million cubic metres (39 million cubic yards) of water that tore through the city of about 100,000 inhabitants. Deputy Mayor Ahmed Madroud said the way the city was built put most of the population in the water’s direct path. The dams had not been maintained for more than two decades, and the infrastructure was not built to withstand the effects of this week’s floods, Madroud said. Libya has seen more than a decade of conflict and is politically divided. An internationally recognised government sits in Tripoli in the west, but Derna is in an area controlled by a rival administration based in Benghazi.Click here to read… [26]

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso establish Sahel security alliance

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have signed a mutual defence pact, as the three Sahel countries aim to help each other against possible threats of armed rebellion or external aggression. The charter, known as the Alliance of Sahel States, signed on Sep 16 binds the signatories to assist one another – including militarily – in the event of an attack on any one of them. “Any attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of one or more contracted parties will be considered an aggression against the other parties,” it says. It also binds the three countries to work to prevent or settle armed rebellions. “I have today signed with the Heads of State of Burkina Faso and Niger the Liptako-Gourma charter establishing the Alliance of Sahel States, with the aim of establishing a collective defence and mutual assistance framework,” Mali military leader Assimi Goita said on his X social media account. The Liptako-Gourma region – where the Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger borders meet – has been ravaged by armed rebellion in recent years. “This alliance will be a combination of military and economic efforts between the three countries”, Mali’s Defence Minister Abdoulaye Diop told journalists in Bamako, the capital of Mali. “Our priority is the fight against terrorism in the three countries.” An armed rebellion that erupted in northern Mali in 2012 spread to Niger and Burkina Faso in 2015.Click here to read… [27]

US military resumes drone, crewed aircraft operations in post-coup Niger

The United States military has resumed operations in Niger, flying drones and other aircraft out of airbases in the country more than a month after a coup halted activity, the head of Air Forces in Europe and Air Forces Africa said. Since the July coup that removed President Mohamed Bazoum, the approximately 1,100 US soldiers deployed in the West African country have been confined to their military bases. General James Hecker said on Sep 13 that negotiations with the military rulers of Niger resulted in some intelligence and surveillance missions resuming. “For a while, we weren’t doing any missions on the bases, they pretty much closed down the airfields,” Hecker told reporters at the annual Air and Space Forces Association convention. “Through the diplomatic process, we are now doing, I wouldn’t say 100 percent of the missions that we were doing before, but we’re doing a large amount of missions that we’re doing before,” he said. Hecker said the US is flying both crewed and unmanned missions and that those flights resumed “within the last couple of weeks”. The US military has made Niger a primary regional outpost for its patrols with armed drones and other operations against fighters and rebel movements that have seized territory in the region, killed civilians and fought the armed forces.Click here to read… [28]

6 ASEAN air force chiefs attend conference hosted by Myanmar

Air force chiefs from six of ASEAN's 10 members met in Naypyitaw for an annual conference chaired this year by military-ruled Myanmar, even amid widespread condemnation of the Southeast Asian nation's airstrikes against pro-democracy forces. Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Brunei attended Sep 13's gathering, according to Myanmar state media. Singapore and the Philippines only sent video messages, while Indonesia and Malaysia apparently chose not to participate at all. Leaders from the Southeast Asian bloc had "strongly condemned the continued escalation of violence" in Myanmar in a statement after a summit last week, specifically citing "the destruction of houses and public facilities such as schools, hospitals, markets, churches and monasteries." The decision by a majority of ASEAN members to participate in a conference hosted by Myanmar's air force commander, a central figure in this violence, has been heavily criticized by human rights organizations. ASEAN has barred Myanmar from summits and foreign ministers meetings but allows it to participate in many other high-level gatherings. Myanmar's military government has been strengthening ties with Russia, which has supplied it with fighter jets and training for military pilots. Naypyitaw sent multiple ministers to the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok that wrapped up Sep 13.Click here to read… [29]

Türkiye could ‘part ways with the EU’ – Erdogan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that Ankara could abandon its long-running EU membership process in response to a report from Brussels condemning his country’s “downward spiral in terms of human rights.” “The EU is trying to break away from Türkiye,” Erdogan told reporters on Sep 16, adding: “We will make our evaluations against these developments and if necessary, we can part ways with the EU.” Earlier this week, the European Parliament voted to adopt a report censuring Türkiye for measures curtailing “fundamental freedoms, human rights and civil liberties, as well as by its actions going against international law and good neighbourly relations.” The report cited Türkiye’s alleged persecution of the LGBTQ community, its territorial disputes with Greece, and its refusal to sanction or condemn Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine as examples of “the growing gap between Türkiye and the EU on values and standards.” In conclusion, it recommended that Türkiye’s accession to the bloc be put on hold until these issues, and others, are resolved. Until that point, the report suggests that Ankara be offered “a modernised association agreement” in place of a pathway to membership. The Turkish Foreign Ministry said that the report contained unfounded allegations, and took “a shallow and non-visionary” approach to the country’s relations with the EU.Click here to read… [30]

Mandarin learning boom as China extends its soft power in Middle East

While interest in learning Mandarin declines in the West, Middle Eastern children are attending classes in China’s official language as part of a geopolitical shift in a region that has been traditionally regarded as a sphere of US influence. Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab country in the Middle East, last month mandated Mandarin lessons in all public and private secondary schools, which are expected to extend classes to second year pupils in this academic year. According to the Saudi Gazette news portal, each secondary school class will be assigned a facilitator who is expected to support and guide self-learning among the pupils. Ma Yongliang – who opened a Chinese language institute in Riyadh in October, followed by a second centre in August at the commercial hub Jeddah – said fluency in Mandarin held broad implications in an era of geopolitical change. “I think China is an emerging power that can hardly be overlooked and will play a crucial role in international development and reconstruction of global order,” said Ma, a former Arabic language lecturer in northwestern China’s Ningxia Hui autonomous region. “If you want to cooperate with or engage with China, speaking Chinese is an inevitable skill.” Ma said he believed that mastering the most-spoken language in the world – and mother tongue of about 1.3 billion people – meant “winning the world”.Click here to read… [31]

Health

Healthcare, clean water, shelter among urgent priorities as Morocco grapples with quake aftermath: Experts

Healthcare, clean water and shelter are among the urgent priorities in Morocco, where the death toll is expected to climb following its deadliest earthquake in decades, observers said. The country on Sep 8 was hit by a 6.8-magnitude quake with an epicentre within the Atlas Mountains south of Marrakech. The healthcare system in the country was already under a lot of strain before the added pressure of the earthquake, Mr Benjamin William, Singapore Red Cross CEO and secretary general, told CNA’s Asia First on Sep 12. Statistics show that there are only about seven doctors for every 10,000 Moroccans, he noted. “There's been some severe damage to a lot of the healthcare clinics and hospitals in the region. And on top of that, the road system and the access systems have been damaged,” he said. The death toll is likely to rise, he added, both due to the damaged healthcare system and difficulty in accessing mountainous areas. The lack of clean water may also compound the problems, he said. “Sanitation is important because otherwise, you have the waterborne diseases, creating a crisis on top of a crisis,” he said. His organisation is working closely with its counterpart in Morocco and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent societies, he said.Click here to read… [32]

US CDC expects 'tripledemic' hospitalisations to remain high this year vs pre-pandemic levels

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Sep 14 it expects the total number of hospitalizations from COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus infections and flu this year to be similar to last year, higher than pre-pandemic levels. The government health agency also said it expects flu and RSV infections to increase over the fall and winter seasons. Vaccines for all three major respiratory viruses - COVID-19, flu, and RSV - will be available this fall, the CDC said. Higher levels of vaccination across the population will help reduce the number of hospitalizations and risk of straining the country's hospitals, CDC added. The CDC on Sep 12 signed off on the broad use of updated COVID-19 vaccines made by Pfizer and partner BioNTech SE as well as Moderna - covering ages 6 months and upward - as the country prepares to start a vaccination campaign within days. A surge in cases of RSV infections coinciding with an increase in COVID transmission and an earlier-than-normal flu season has raised the spectre of a so-called 'tripledemic' of respiratory illness across the United States.Click here to read… [33]