Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (31 July- 06 August)

Economic

Russia becomes Europe’s biggest economy – report

Russia was among the world’s five largest economies and the largest in Europe in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) as of the end of 2022, despite Western sanctions, the latest World Economics report has revealed. According to estimates based on official country data published by the World Bank and the IMF, Russia's gross domestic product was $5.51 trillion in PPP terms at the end of last year. The figure is 38% larger than the official estimate of $3.993 trillion, the report noted. It also showed that the Russian economy was ahead of Germany’s when measured in purchasing-power parity, with the latter’s GDP at $5 trillion. China topped the list as the world’s biggest economy ($31 trillion), followed by the US, India, and Japan. The top 10 also included Indonesia, Brazil, and Türkiye. The IMF and World Bank both recently raised their forecasts for the Russian economy, saying GDP would continue to grow despite sanctions, underpinned by strong trade and industrial production, as well as higher-than-expected energy revenues. According to the World Bank, Russia’s growth is expected to turn positive in 2024, but will remain modest at 1.2%. The Russian government has maintained a positive outlook for the economy. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has predicted that, by 2024, the Russian economy will be able to overtake developed countries in terms of growth.Click here to read… [2]

Europe Returns to Timid Growth, but Bigger Headwinds Loom

Rising borrowing costs and stagnating Chinese demand for European goods could pave the way for another miserable economic winter for the eurozone this year. These headwinds, which also include the continuing war in Ukraine and stubbornly high inflation, mean the region is likely to keep underperforming the U.S. for now, according to fresh data and recent sentiment surveys. After briefly shrinking at the end of last year, the currency area’s economy returned to growth in the three months through June, according to data released by the European Union’s statistics agency on July 31. The combined gross domestic product of the 20 countries that use the euro grew at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the second quarter. That modest pickup mirrored an acceleration in U.S. economic growth during the same period, and contrasted with a slowdown in China. But the eurozone partly benefited from a freak 13.7% increase in Ireland, whose GDP has gyrated wildly following the fortunes of large U.S. drug companies domiciled on the island. The eurozone economy is unlikely to return to the rates of growth it recorded before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy and food prices surging and shattered business and household confidence. Eurostat didn’t provide a breakdown of the factors driving the return to growth, but figures from individual countries indicate that consumer spending held up better than during the winter months, when high energy bills left households with less to spend on other goods and services.Click here to read… [3]

Forget Fukushima, from Japan to India nuclear power is retaking centre stage in the fight against climate change

Japan’s plan to release treated waste water from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant may have ignited controversy recently, but more than a decade after the 2011 disaster, the world’s gaze is once again turning to the low-carbon energy source as unprecedented heatwaves underscore Earth’s new ‘era of global boiling’. In a G20 statement on the energy transition last month, world leaders highlighted the role nuclear energy can play in cutting emissions and providing energy security. Nuclear plants are also capable of meeting baseload demand – providing the minimum amount of electricity a grid needs – because their power output is much more constant than intermittent sources such as solar or wind. Climate experts say the prominence given to nuclear power by the G20 text is a sign of its possible resurgence. It’s certainly making a comeback in Asia, where China, South Korea, Japan, and India are leading the way. “Japan is like a large Singapore with not so much land,” Tatsuya Terazawa, the chairman of Japan’s Institute of Energy Economics, told a July 26 webinar on Asia’s ‘Road to a Sustainable Energy Future’. He cited this lack of space for solar panels and other infrastructure as among the “constraints on expanding renewable energy” in the country.Click here to read… [4]

OPEC’S Production Falls by Most in 3 Years: Survey

According to the results of the survey, OPEC’s crude production fell 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month, to an average of 27.79 million bpd. It is the sharpest drop since 2020 when the group rushed to cut its output in the wake of Covid lockdowns and crashing demand. The survey showed that Saudi Arabia carried the heaviest load in cutting production in July, producing 9.15 million bpd. Nigeria and Libya also saw their production dip last month by 130,000 bpd and 50,000 bpd, respectively. OPEC+’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting has been scheduled for August 3 to assess the state of the oil markets, according to sources who spoke with Oilprice.com last week. Bloomberg reported today that Saudi Arabia and Russia would chair an online review of the markets at a meeting on August 4. Analysts largely expect Saudi Arabia to extend its voluntary 1 million bpd supply cut into September as it looks to support the rebound in oil prices, which have Brent pushing $85 as of Aug 01. But some anticipate Saudi Arabia unwinding at least part of its 1 million bpd cut beginning next month. Oil markets are expected to tighten during this half of the year, with even the IEA predicting an oil shortage of 1.7 million bpd in H2. Standard Chartered has predicted a 2.81 million bpd shortfall this month, with smaller shortfalls—but still shortfalls—in September and beyond.Click here to read… [5]

Russia pumping oil at record pace – Bloomberg

Oil companies in Russia are operating at a record pace this year despite Moscow’s agreement to extend production cuts with its OPEC+ partners, Bloomberg reported on July 31. The nation’s rigs drilled 14,700 kilometers of production wells in the first six months of the year, 6.6% more than planned and 8.6% more than in the same period a year ago, data obtained by the news agency shows. Russian oil extractors demonstrated “a post-Soviet production-drilling record” in 2022, Ronald Smith, an oil and gas analyst at Moscow-based BCS Global Markets, told Bloomberg, adding that a new high will be established this year. Moscow had previously ordered the country’s oil companies to curb output by 500,000 barrels per day. The measure was initially introduced for just several months to retaliate against Ukraine-related sanctions. It was subsequently extended until the end of 2024 in coordination with OPEC. The projected drilling record comes as the Russian oil sector faces unprecedented sanctions imposed by Western countries in 2022 over Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine. Severe restrictions on exports of oil industry equipment and technologies were introduced to curb Russia’s ability to drill and pump crude, an important source of revenue for the national budget. The sanctions have also banned seaborne exports and imposed price caps on Russian crude and petroleum products to the US, EU, UK, and their allies.Click here to read… [6]

UAE promises to allow climate protests at COP28

The United Arab Emirates has said it will allow environmental activists to “make their voices heard” and peacefully assemble at this year’s UN climate talks. The announcement was made in a joint statement with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) published on Aug 01. “In line with UNFCCC guidelines and adherence to international human rights norms and principles, there will be space available for climate activists to assemble peacefully and make their voices heard,” the statement said. In the oil-rich Gulf nation, which is set to host COP28 from November to December in the business hub of Dubai, official permission is required for demonstrations but effectively bans protests the authorities consider disruptive. The joint statement was released after UNFCCC chief Simon Stiell and COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber signed a bilateral agreement that provides the legal basis for organising and hosting the climate talks. “To drive climate action and ambition forward, we are firmly committed to ensuring that UN values are upheld at COPs,” Stiell said. “We are also making every effort on our part to ensure that this will be a COP process where the voices of youth, women, local communities, Indigenous Peoples, and those most impacted by climate change will be heard and reflected within the process.”Click here to read… [7]

Putin Signs Law To Narrow Russian Urals Crude Discount To Brent

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed into law amendments in the tax code in the energy sector which will narrow the discount of Russia’s flagship Urals crude to Brent to $20 per barrel from September from a $25 discount now. The amendments in the tax code will also halve the subsidies to Russian refineries as of September 2023 to the end of 2026. The halved subsidies to refiners will allow Russia’s budget to save $326 million (30 billion Russian rubles) in expenses per month, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. The average price of Urals was $64.37 per barrel in July, down from $78.41 in July 2022, according to data released by the Russian Finance Ministry on Aug 01. The average Urals price last month was above the $60 per barrel price cap set by the G7 and EU if Russian crude shipments to third countries outside the EU are to use Western insurance and financing. Between January and July 2023, the price of Urals averaged $53.94 per barrel, down from $83.27 for the same period last year, the Russian finance ministry data showed. Earlier this month, the price of Urals, which had been trading consistently below the price cap, climbed above $60 per barrel for the first time, which could pose problems for cautious buyers, including India.Click here to read… [8]

China To Defend Its Strong Position In Critical Metal Supply Chains

As the technology war between China and the West escalates and the energy transition progresses, China is boosting investments in critical minerals overseas as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aiming to secure more raw materials for batteries and solar panels. While the United States and the EU are looking to forge alliances to counter China’s dominance in the supply chain critical for the energy transition, China is investing billions of U.S. dollars in minerals and metals supply and processing in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. The Chinese grip on the critical minerals markets is set to increase, some analysts’ say, despite the efforts of the U.S. and the EU to diversify their electric vehicle (EV) and renewables supply chains. A new report showed this week that China is intent on defending its already huge global market share in those supply chains. As part of the BRI, China invested more than $10 billion in metals and mining in the first half of 2023, a surge of 131% compared to the same period of 2023, according to a report by the Green Finance & Development Center (GFDC) of the Fanhai International School of Finance at Fudan University in Shanghai. “An important growth area of strategic importance is China’s engagement in metals and mining,” Christoph Nedopil, the author of the report, wrote.Click here to read… [9]

U.S. investors still have appetite for delisted China stocks

Didi Global and other Chinese companies forced off of U.S. stock exchanges have found a new home for their shares in the country: the over-the-counter market. In OTC trading, also known as off-exchange trading, shares change hands between buyers and sellers directly. There are fewer disclosure requirements for companies trading this way than on major exchanges, but the pool of potential investors tends to be more restricted. Shares in ride-hailing giant Didi, which delisted from the New York Stock Exchange a year ago, can now be bought via a platform provided by OTC Markets Group, a U.S. financial services company. Didi's market capitalization currently stands at around $15.6 billion, just a fraction of its peak of $80 billion on the NYSE, Refinitive data shows, while its average daily trading this year is $39 million, compared to $4.45 billion at its peak when it was publicly listed. Luckin Coffee, which operates a chain of coffee shops, delisted from NASDAQ in 2020 following an accounting scandal. Like Didi, its shares are now available via OTC Markets. Its average daily trading value has been around $46 million so far this year, compared to a peak of $2.66 billion in January 2020, five months before the delisting. While such figures are lower than these companies enjoyed while on the major exchanges, they indicate continued U.S. investor appetite for their shares.Click here to read… [10]

BlackRock, MSCI probed for investments in China

A United States House Select Committee has started investigating two New York-based financial institutions – BlackRock Inc and Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) – over their roles in funneling American investments into shares of blacklisted Chinese firms. BlackRock is the world’s largest asset management firm with US$8.59 trillion in assets under management as of the end of 2022. It was spun off from Blackstone in 1994 and went public in 1999. MSCI is a global provider of equity, fixed income and real estate indexes, which are used by fund managers as benchmarks. The Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the US and the Chinese Communist Party, established in January, said Aug 01 it had sent separate letters to BlackRock and MSCI asking for information about their facilitation of US investments into about 50 Chinese companies, which were blacklisted over claims of supporting the Chinese army or alleged human rights abuses. On July 31, BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink and MSCI Chief Executive Henry Fernandez were told by lawmakers that their firms are being probed for the investments in certain Chinese companies. BlackRock said in a statement that it complies with all applicable US laws with all investments in China. It said it will continue engaging with the House Select Committee directly on the issues raised. MSCI said on July 31 it was “reviewing the inquiry” from the committee.Click here to read… [11]

Argentina taps China currency swap line to help repay IMF loan

Argentina has struck a deal with China's central bank to settle more than half of its $2.7 billion debt due this week to the International Monetary Fund in yuan by tapping a currency swap line, its economy minister said on July 31. The government used yuan equivalent to $1.7 billion under the swap arrangement with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to repay part of the $2.7 billion due to the IMF, Sergio Tomas Massa said during a speech. The balance was covered by a $1 billion bridge loan from the Development Bank of Latin America, Massa said. This means Argentina didn't have to draw "a single dollar" from its own reserves to pay the maturing debt, he said. The South American country, the third-largest economy in the region, has been grappling with economic crises, rampant inflation and defaults for years. In 2018, it reached a $57 billion loan deal with the IMF to prop up its ailing finances, but the debt had to be refinanced last year through a new $44 billion program. This week's agreement follows a similar arrangement in June, when Argentina tapped the yuan equivalent of some $1 billion through its currency swap with China to cover part of a $2.7 billion repayment to the multinational lender due the same month.Click here to read… [12]

Pakistan lines up Saudi-backed refinery as it eyes more Russian oil

A $10 billion Saudi-backed oil refinery project planned in Pakistan's port city of Gwadar aims to capitalize on the troubled economy's potential, and, sources say, lay a foundation for taking in more Russian crude. Four Pakistani state-owned energy companies late last week signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Saudi Aramco, which will inject the initial 30% equity into the project. Once built, the refinery will be able to process 300,000 barrels per day, according to details released by the government. That alone would surpass the combined total of 215,000 barrels per day of petroleum products refined in Pakistan in 2020-2021, according to a report by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority. The quartet of enterprises -- Pakistan State Oil (PSO), Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), and Government Holdings Private Limited (GHPL) -- also signed a memorandum with China National Offshore Oil Corp. for engineering, procurement and construction of the refinery. Gwadar has long been positioned as the heart of China's Belt and Road projects in the country. Pakistan is mired in political and economic crises, which forced it to go to the International Monetary Fund for a $3 billion standby bailout arrangement to avoid a default.Click here to read… [13]

Farmland buyers in Japan forced to declare their nationality

Land sales to non-Japanese citizens will be monitored more closely from September, when the buyers of farmland will be asked to state their nationality before purchasing it. Foreign ownership is a political flashpoint because transactions in the sector receive little scrutiny, although it is thought that investment-minded foreigners are buying more forested areas than farmland because the latter must be cultivated. Currently, individuals or companies seeking to buy farmland must apply for permission from municipal agricultural committees. That system will continue, but from Sept. 1 the agriculture ministry will ask individuals to declare their nationality in the application. A company seeking to buy farmland will have to state the nation where it was established as well as the nationalities of major shareholders. The change is intended to allow greater oversight of ownership trends, not to prevent sales to certain nationalities. A farm ministry official in charge of the program said nationality would not become a direct factor in deciding if the sale should be approved. Retrospective tallies will also be conducted. The ministry plans to sift through residential registers to identify the nationalities of current owners of farmland. The agriculture ministry has been looking into sales of farmland to foreign companies and non-Japanese living abroad since 2017. The ministry has found that six companies own a total of 67.6 hectares of farmland.Click here to read… [14]

China floodwater diversions to populated areas unleash wave of online anger

Nearly 1 million people in China’s northern Hebei province were relocated after record rains forced authorities to channel water from swollen rivers to some populated areas for storage, sparking anger online over the homes sacrificed to save Beijing. The vast Hai River basin covers an area the size of Poland that includes Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin. Over a span of one week from late July, the region with a population totaling 110 million experienced its most serious flooding in six decades, with Hebei, particularly Baoding prefecture, the worst hit. According to flood control laws, when basin-wide flooding causes reservoirs, the first line of defense, to exceed their limits, water may be temporarily channeled to so-called “flood storage areas” - including low-lying populated land. On July 31, Hebei province opened seven of its 13 designated flood storage areas, including two in the city of Zhuozhou in Baoding south of Beijing and north of Xiongan, a zone President Xi Jinping aims to develop into an economic powerhouse serving Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin. On Aug. 1, Hebei’s Communist Party Secretary Ni Yuefeng called Xiongan a top priority for the province’s flood prevention work, according to local state media. On his visit to flood storage areas in Baoding, Ni added that it was necessary to reduce the pressure on Beijing’s flood control and create a “moat” for the Chinese capital. Click here to read… [15]

China’s latest drone export curbs ‘may be signal to West it is neutral in Russia-Ukraine war’

China’s latest export restrictions on drones could be seen as a compromise in response to increasing Western pressure over its close ties with Russia, defence analysts have suggested. Starting from next month, exporters will require government approval to export civilian drones that could also have military applications. The new curbs, announced on July 31, will inevitably cause serious losses to Chinese firms as both Russia and Ukraine have been turning to foreign suppliers to equip their armed forces in a conflict where drones have played an increasingly important role. They came as Russia promised a harsh response to recent drone attacks in central Moscow and annexed Crimea. Kyiv has not confirmed responsibility but Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky had earlier warned that war was coming to Russia. “The decision could be seen as a compromise [by Beijing] to avoid losing the international market and potential sanctions from the West, especially after the United States claimed that it had found exports of China-made drones to Russia,” said Macau-based analyst Antony Wong Tong. “To protect its national interest, Beijing needs to make its neutral position clear, especially amid increasing pressure from the West.” China has refused to sanction Russia for its invasion of Ukraine but it has declared it will not supply the Russian military with weapons. It has also criticised Western countries for “adding fuel to the fire” by arming Ukraine.Click here to read… [16]

Strategic

Ukraine’s Black Sea drone attacks signal a rapidly expanding war with Russia

The footprint of President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is growing fast after a weekend in which sea drones crippled a Russian naval vessel and oil tanker. For the first time, the attacks put at risk Russia’s commodity exports via the Black Sea, a route that accounts for most of the grain and 15 per cent to 20 per cent of the oil that Russia sells daily on global markets. Significantly higher insurance and shipping costs are likely to follow for Moscow, but there are risks to European and global markets, too. The expansion comes as Ukraine’s counteroffensive advances more slowly than Kyiv officials planned, and as Saudi Arabia’s attempt to catalyse peace talks by hosting a multinational conference showed just how hard it is likely to be to end the bloodshed on terms both sides can accept. “We’re in an escalation phase now and the situation is unpredictable,” said Alexander Gabuev, who heads the Russia Eurasia Center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank. “Since the start of its counter-offensive, Ukraine has been trying to deliver a message to the Russian elites and population that the war can strike into their territory,” Gabuev said. Now it “is trying to target Russian critical infrastructure, including sea routes in the Black Sea that are vital for Russian exports”.Click here to read… [17]

Russia and China Sent Large Naval Patrol Near Alaska

A combined Russian and Chinese naval force patrolled near the coast of Alaska last week in what U.S. experts said appeared to be the largest such flotilla to approach American shores. Eleven Russian and Chinese ships steamed close to the Aleutian Islands, according to U.S. officials. The ships, which never entered U.S. territorial waters and have since left, were shadowed by four U.S. destroyers and P-8 Poseidon aircraft. “It is a historical first,” said Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a retired Navy captain. “Given the context of the war in Ukraine and tensions around Taiwan, this move is highly provocative.” A spokesman for the U.S. Northern Command confirmed that Russia and China had carried out a combined naval patrol near Alaska, but didn’t specify the number of ships or their precise location. “Air and maritime assets under our commands conducted operations to assure the defense of the United States and Canada. The patrol remained in international waters and was not considered a threat,” the command said. Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska, a Republican member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said the patrol was a reminder that the U.S. has entered “a new era of authoritarian aggression” and applauded the robust U.S. response. The Russian Embassy in Washington, D.C., didn’t respond to a request for comment.Click here to read… [18]

China's Xi prepares for the worst with drones, hypersonic weapons

China is seeking advances in artificial intelligence-powered drones and hypersonic weapons in a broader military buildup, as President Xi Jinping prepares the country for "extreme" scenarios. An article appearing in the People's Liberation Army Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese armed forces, in late May warned of an urgent need to strengthen the military's capabilities in controlling low-altitude airspace, an increasingly important field of combat. Low-cost AI-equipped drones are considered key to that effort. At the Communist Party Congress in October 2022, Xi pledged to speed up the development of unmanned aircraft and AI-equipped combat capabilities. One focus is drone swarms, in which many AI-equipped drones are deployed simultaneously. In 2022, China's state-owned defense giant China Electronics Technology Group successfully tested a swarm of 48 drones. Defending against a swarm attack would require advanced detection and targeting, making them particularly challenging to counter on remote islands where it is difficult to deploy troops. "China using swarm drones in a landing operation on Okinawa's Senkaku Islands would pose a threat," a Japan Ministry of Defense source said, referring to the Japanese-administered islands claimed by China as the Diaoyu Islands. A May 30 meeting of the Communist Party's National Security Commission chaired by Xi said China needs to prepare for "worst-case" and "extreme" scenarios.Click here to read… [19]

Mongolia, U.S. to sign ‘Open Skies’ deal ahead of talks--Harris, PM

The United States and Mongolia will sign an “Open Skies” civil aviation agreement, Vice President Kamala Harris and Mongolian Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene said on Aug 02 at the start of discussions focused on Russia, China and economic development. Their meeting in Washington on Aug 02 came as the Biden administration works to ease tensions with strategic competitor China and as U.S. relations with Russia show no sign of thawing as the Ukraine war grinds on. Harris underscored the administration’s commitment to strengthening ties with Mongolia and other nations in the Indo-Pacific, with a big focus on combating the climate crisis, upholding democracies and human rights, and addressing threats to the international rules-based order. “The American people have a profound stake in the future of the Indo-Pacific,” Harris said, noting that she and President Joe Biden had each traveled there three times since taking office. “It is in our vital interest to promote an Indo-Pacific region that is open, interconnected, prosperous, secure and resilient.” Surrounded by Russia in the north and China in the south, Mongolia has cultivated allies -- such as Japan, South Korea and the United States -- in a diplomatic strategy aimed at reinforcing its political independence, but its economy has continued to rely heavily on its two giant neighbors.Click here to read… [20]

What is the Kuwaiti-Iranian dispute over the Dorra/Arash gas field?

An offshore gas field in the Gulf waters has long been a bone of contention among the two countries claiming ownership over it. Located on the eastern maritime border of Kuwait, the Dorra gas field was discovered in 1967. Iran, which calls the field Arash, says the field extends into its waters. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, who share maritime gas and oil resources in the zone between them, signed an agreement last March to jointly develop the field. Days later, Iran objected to the deal, branding it “illegal”, and said it would launch its own plans to develop the field. Last week, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia rejected Iran’s ownership claims after Tehran threatened to pursue exploration. But on Aug 03, Kuwait said that it’s foreign minister had been invited to visit Iran. Here’s the story so far: What’s the history here? The dispute over Dorra/Arash dates back to the 1960s, when Iran and Kuwait were each awarded an offshore concession, one to the former Anglo-Iranian Oil Company – the forerunner to BP – and one to Royal Dutch Shell. The two concessions overlapped in the northern part of the field, whose recoverable reserves are estimated at some 220 billion cubic metres (7 trillion cubic feet). Iran moved drilling equipment into the field in 2001, prompting Kuwait to lodge complaints with international organisations.Click here to read… [21]

Iran’s IRGC runs military drills on disputed islands claimed by UAE

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has launched military exercises to show its readiness to defend three disputed islands that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) claims as its own. The elite force ran the unannounced drills early on Aug 02, mainly off the coast of Abu Musa which along with Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb are islands in the Gulf that Iran controls but have recently been increasingly the subject of political tensions. In 1971, the then-shah of Iran dispatched the royal navy to the three islands in the mouth of the strategic Strait of Hormuz after the British withdrew their forces from what is today the UAE. Emirati leaders have since maintained that the islands belong to them, with support from other Arab states. Iran has dismissed these claims, rejecting the possibility of any negotiations over their ownership. Last month, Iran’s foreign ministry summoned the Russian envoy in Tehran to protest against Russia’s joint statement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that challenged Iran’s rights over the islands. China, another strategic ally of Tehran, made a similar move in December, with President Xi Jinping signing a joint statement with the GCC that supported the UAE’s right to follow up on the ownership of the islands internationally. That also led to the Iranian foreign ministry summoning the Chinese ambassador to Tehran to protest against the move.Click here to read… [22]

More than 40 dead from suicide bomb at Pakistan rally

At least 42 people were killed and over 130 injured when a suicide bomber set off explosives at a political rally in Pakistan's northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on July 30, police and rescue officials said. The blast took place at a gathering of the conservative Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) party, known for its links to hard-line political Islam, in the former tribal area of Bajaur, which borders Afghanistan. An emergency has been declared in the hospitals of Bajaur and adjoining areas where most of the injured were taken, said district police officer Nazir Khan. The critically injured were transported from Bajaur to hospitals in the provincial capita,l Peshawar, by military helicopters. A statement from Rescue 1122, a first-responder service, put the death toll at 42. Khan said the explosion, at a JUI-F workers convention in Khar town of Bajaur, had left more than 130 injured, many seriously. The provincial police chief, Akhtar Hayat, told Reuters the explosion was caused by a suicide bomb. Pakistan has seen a resurgence of attacks by Islamist militants since last year, when a cease-fire between the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamabad broke down. A mosque bombing in Peshawar killed over 100 people earlier this year. While the TTP and its associated groups have been behind a majority of attacks in Pakistan in recent months, the group distanced itself from July 31's attack, which its spokesman condemned.Click here to read… [23]

Taliban Prepare Suicide Bombers in Water Dispute With Iran

In mid-May, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi issued a warning to the Taliban: honor Afghanistan’s water-supply agreement or face the consequences. A well-known Taliban figure offered a mocking gift of a 20-liter water container in response and told him to stop making terrifying ultimatums. About a week later, a skirmish erupted on the border, leaving two Iranian guards and one Taliban member dead. The Taliban sent thousands of troops and hundreds of suicide bombers to the area, according to a person familiar with the matter, who says the group is prepared for war. After two decades fighting the US, Taliban leaders now find themselves sparring with neighbors as the realities of global warming hit home. The dispute with Iran over depleted water resources is further destabilizing an already volatile region. “The water shortages in the Helmand River basin are a result of climate change as the country heats up and suffers huge excesses of rainfall followed by terrible dry spells,” said Graeme Smith, a senior consultant on Afghanistan at the International Crisis Group, a non-profit organization. “Temperatures in the country are up 1.8C since 1950.” Iran signed an agreement in 1973 for Afghanistan to supply a stipulated amount of water a year in “normal” climate conditions from the Helmand, a more than 1,000 kilometer (620 mile) waterway that runs from the Afghan Hindu Kush mountains through the country and into Iran.Click here to read… [24]

Bangladesh election tensions rise as protests erupt, economy dims

Tensions are running higher in Bangladesh as opposition parties push the government to step aside ahead of a national election, Western critics condemn violence and the economic outlook darkens. Opposition activists clashed with security forces over the weekend as they sought to stage a major rally to pressure Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government. Led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the opposition is insisting that Hasina transfer power to a neutral caretaker administration to ensure the election scheduled in early January will be fair, after allegations of rigging marred past polls. Protesters blocked roads and threw stones while police fired rubber bullets and tear gas, according to reports. Authorities rounded up hundreds of activists, including a number of BNP leaders, the reports said. The ruling party, the Bangladesh Awami League, insists it has a right to stay in power during the election period, based on the constitution. It has long denied the allegations of election interference. But in what many critics consider an alarming preview, a July by-election in Dhaka brought more accusations of manipulation, while independent candidate Ashraful Alam suffered a life-threatening attack. This sparked criticism both at home and abroad, highlighting how Bangladesh's government is increasingly at odds with the international community -- just as the economy comes to a crucial juncture, amid shrinking foreign reserves and cuts to the country's credit standing.Click here to read… [25]

New Zealand warns of 'assertive' China in 1st national security strategy

China seeks to spread its influence across the Pacific, New Zealand says in its inaugural national security strategy published Aug 04, warning that Beijing could upset the strategic balance in the region. "China has become more assertive and more willing to challenge existing international rules and norms," the strategy says. Issued by Prime Minister Chris Hipkins' government, the document comes as the U.S. and China jockey for influence in the Indo-Pacific region. "Where we as New Zealanders once saw ourselves as largely protected from threats by geography, we now experience a virtual distance measured in seconds and keystrokes," the strategy says. "Threats are reaching New Zealanders more directly." New Zealand is concerned by the growing ties between its traditional island partners in the Pacific Ocean and China. China and the Solomon Islands signed a security agreement in 2022. The Solomons pact demonstrates "China's ambition to link economic and security cooperation, create competing regional architectures, and expand its influence with Pacific Island countries across policing, defense, digital, and maritime spheres," according to the strategy. The document points to Chinese development of ports and airports in the Pacific, warning that they could be used for both civilian and military purposes or become full-fledged military bases. This "would fundamentally alter the strategic balance in the region," it says.Click here to read… [26]

Selection of Thailand’s new prime minister delayed again, to await court decision on election winner

A parliamentary vote to select Thailand’s new prime minister expected on Aug 04 was delayed again after a court put off a decision in a case involving the progressive party that won May’s election, adding to growing uncertainty about when a new government can take office. The Constitutional Court on Aug 03 said it needs more time to deliberate on whether to accept a petition from the state ombudsman on whether it was constitutional for Parliament to bar Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, the surprise election winner, from being nominated as a prime ministerial candidate a second time. The progressive Move Forward Party finished in first place in the May election and assembled an eight-party coalition with 312 seats in the 500-member lower house. But Parliament has struggled to confirm a new prime minister, which requires a majority vote together with the conservative 250-member appointed Senate. Pita’s initial bid last month fell short by more than 50 votes, largely because only 13 senators backed him. He was barred from a second try the following week when Parliament voted that he could not submit his name again. Many senators, who were appointed by a previous military government, said they would not vote for Pita because of his party’s call to reform a law that makes it illegal to defame Thailand’s royal family.Click here to read… [27]

Myanmar’s military-led government extends state of emergency, delays promised election

Myanmar’s military-controlled government has extended the state of emergency it imposed when the army seized power from an elected government 2 1/2 years ago, state-run media said July 31, forcing a further delay in elections it promised when it took over. MRTV television said the National Defense and Security Council met July 31 in the capital, Naypyitaw, and extended the state of emergency for another six months starting Aug 01 because time is needed to prepare for the elections. The NDSC is nominally a constitutional government body, but in practice is controlled by the military. The announcement amounted to an admission that the army does not exercise enough control to stage the polls and has failed to subdue widespread opposition to military rule, which includes increasingly challenging armed resistance as well as nonviolent protests and civil disobedience, despite the army having a huge advantage in manpower and weapons. The state of emergency was declared when troops arrested Aung San Suu Kyi and top officials from her government and members of her National League for Democracy party on Feb. 1, 2021. The takeover reversed years of progress toward democracy after five decades of military rule in Myanmar. The military said it seized power because of fraud in the last general election held in November 2020, in which Suu Kyi’s party won a landslide victory while the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development party did poorly.Click here to read… [28]

Road to normalising ties with Saudi Arabia ‘still long’: Israeli official

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security adviser says the road to normalising ties with Saudi Arabia is “still long” as members of his far-right government rule out concessions to Palestinians as part of any deal. United States officials have sought for months to reach what would be a historic agreement that Netanyahu has said would be a huge step towards ending the Israel-Palestine conflict, but Riyadh has signalled a deal would rest on Palestinian statehood. “I can identify with what the United States president said in an interview a few days ago, where he said that the road is still long but that he thinks there will be a possibility of progress,” national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi told public broadcaster Kan on July 31, adding that Israel is not involved in the US-Saudi discussions. “I can say that Israel will not give in to anything that will erode its security,” he said. Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, visited Saudi Arabia in June with the explicit objective of promoting normalisation after declaring it a “national security interest” of the US. US President Joe Biden last week dispatched his national security adviser to Riyadh to discuss a possible deal and on Friday said a rapprochement was “maybe under way”. Asked whether the question of eroding Israel’s “security” included Riyadh establishing a civilian nuclear programme on its soil, Hanegbi said that for that, Israel’s consent was not needed.Click here to read… [29]

Deadline for Niger Coup Leaders to Back Down Passes without Intervention

A deadline set by other West African countries for coup leaders in Niger to back down and liberate the nation’s elected president passed on Aug 06 without regional militaries launching the armed intervention they had threatened. Eleven leaders from the Economic Community of West African States at an emergency summit last weekend said they would consider using force to return Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum to power. But by Aug 06 evening, there were no signs of a mobilization of armed forces in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and home to the region’s largest military. Local media and politicians have criticized Nigerian President Bola Tinubu for supporting an intervention, pointing to the military’s challenges in containing Islamist militants, bandits and other security threats inside Nigeria. A senior commander from one of the Ecowas countries said the region’s militaries needed more time to prepare before they could enter Niger. Two of Niger’s neighbors—Mali and Burkina Faso—whose leaders also came to power through coups, have said they would help defend the junta against Ecowas forces. “For the moment, we need to build up the strength of our units before taking part in such a military action,” the commander said. “The success of any military action depends on good preparation,” he added.Click here to read… [30]

Africa sets sights on China as a top destination for military training

When Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki made a state visit to Beijing in May, he fondly recalled his time doing military training there in 1967 – just a year into China’s Cultural Revolution. It was an experience that played an important role in helping Isaias lead Eritrea’s 30-year fight for independence from Ethiopia, which it won in 1993. “[Isaias] remains fond of China and governs Eritrea and its relations with the outside world based on his decades of experience as a revolutionary guerilla leader combined with his interpretation of Maoist philosophy,” said a 2009 confidential cable from the US embassy in Eritrea, which was published by whistle-blower platform WikiLeaks. Isaias, who Chinese President Xi Jinping has described as “an old friend of China”, said during a meeting with Xi: “The Eritrean people will never forget the precious mental and material support the Chinese people provided for Eritrea’s independence and liberation.” The Eritrean president is among dozens of current and former African leaders who attended Chinese military schools such as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Command College in Nanjing – which hosts the highest number of African students. Another attendee was Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who came to power through a military coup that ousted long-time ruler Robert Mugabe in November 2017. He was one of Zimbabwe’s military chiefs who trained in Nanjing and was part of the core team in his country’s liberation struggle.Click here to read… [31]

Health

U.S. dependence on China for lifesaving drugs grows

U.S. imports of Chinese-made pharmaceuticals are soaring to meet shortages at home, with authorities in some cases greenlighting drugs not formally approved for American use. In a recent example, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on July 10 that it had allowed additional emergency shipments of cisplatin, a drug commonly used in chemotherapy, from China's Qilu Pharmaceutical. Qilu's version of the drug is not approved by the FDA. "We will continue the importation until approved manufacturers can meet all patient needs," an FDA spokesperson said. The U.S. imported $6.95 billion worth of pharmaceuticals from China in 2022, up more than eightfold from $820 million the year before, official data shows. Demand has remained strong, with imports over the first five months of this year alone totaling more than double the annual tally from 2021. The surge is being driven largely by chemotherapy drugs, immunosuppressants and cardiovascular drugs. Growing demand for chemotherapy drugs has led to shortages in the U.S. Quality control problems in India, a major pharmaceutical exporter, have exacerbated the supply troubles. China has helped to fill the gap. Until 2021, its share of U.S. pharmaceutical imports by value stood at around 1%; by 2022, that figure had grown to 9.6%. "The largest contributing factor to China's market share growth has been domestic policies China has implemented with the goal of building a world-class advanced pharmaceutical manufacturing industry," said Niels Graham, a China economy expert at the Washington-based Atlantic Council.Click here to read… [32]

Leprosy alert in US

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has warned that locally-acquired cases of leprosy are on the rise in central Florida, which accounts for 81% of reported cases in the state and a fifth of all cases in the country. Leprosy is typically brought to the US by immigrants from areas where the disease is endemic, but more than a third of cases reported in the southeastern US between 2015 and 2020 were acquired locally, the CDC said in a press release on July 31. The release cited one example of a man who sought treatment at a dermatology clinic for a painful rash that began on his extremities but spread to his torso and face. The man had not traveled either abroad or within the US, and had no contact with immigrants or known leprosy patients, indicating he had acquired the disease in central Florida. “Our case adds to the growing body of literature suggesting that central Florida represents an endemic location for leprosy,” the CDC stated. The agency warned that “travel to this area, even in the absence of other risk factors, should prompt consideration of leprosy in the appropriate clinical context.” Leprosy, also known as Hansen’s disease, has existed since at least 600 BC, and today is most commonly found in Brazil, India, and parts of Africa and southeast Asia.Click here to read… [33]