Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (24-30 April)

Economic

Yellen warns US may default on June 1 without debt ceiling hike

US President Joe Biden summoned the four top congressional leaders to the White House next week after the Treasury warned the government could run short of cash to pay its bills by June. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a letter to Congress that the agency will be unlikely to meet all US government payment obligations “potentially as early as June 1” without action by Congress. The estimate raised the risk that the United States is headed for an unprecedented default that would shake the global economy, adding new urgency to political calculations in Washington, where Democrats and Republicans were girding for a months-long stand-off. Biden called Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Jerusalem, where he is on a diplomatic trip, to invite him to a May 9 White House meeting. The two leaders haven’t sat down to discuss the issue since February. Biden also extended invitations to House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell, whose fall in March sidelined him for weeks, said he and Biden had a “good conversation” today, adding: “I’m sure we’ll be speaking again”. House Republicans passed a bill to raise the debt limit last week that includes steep cuts to spending from healthcare for the poor to air traffic controllers, which the Democratic-controlled Senate and Biden say they will not approve. Click here to read... [2]

Russian central bank outlines major economic risks

The Bank of Russia (CBR) held its key interest rate unchanged at 7.5% on April 28, saying the economy will recover this year and grow by as much as 2%. Commenting on the decision, CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina said that some factors could threaten the regulator’s goal of returning inflation to its 4% target. “About the risks that could lead to a deviation of inflation from the baseline forecast. There are pro-inflationary factors, we expect some acceleration, an increase in core inflation, but we do not expect double-digit figures,” she stated. According to the central bank, consumer demand has been recovering as the Russian economy has adapted to the sanctions faster than expected while supply has failed to keep up. This has resulted in lower inflation, Nabiullina added. “In addition, we will continue to closely monitor the implementation of the budget policy,” she said. “We proceed from budget plans that the government has outlined, but if the structural budget deficit widens, it will be one of the grounds for tightening monetary policy. But we have to look at the whole set of factors, there may be disinflationary factors that will compensate for pro-inflationary influences.” According to the CBR, inflation is slightly below its February forecast, while GDP dynamics are higher. Click here to read... [3]

Russia overtakes US in fertilizer production – official

Russia has become the world’s second-largest producer of mineral fertilizer, Andrey Guryev, the head of the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers, said at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin on April 27. According to Guryev, output has increased by 40% over the past decade to 55 million tons a year. During the same period, the volume of fertilizer supplies to the domestic market grew 2.5 times to 13.2 million tons – a record for the country, he noted. “We overtook the United States, India in production and today we are the largest producer of mineral fertilizers in the world after China,” he said, adding that the country plans to boost output to 70 million tons over the next five years. Guryev noted that Russia is the world’s largest exporter of fertilizers, supplying around 38 million tons a year. According to the International Fertilizers Association, at the start of 2022, Russian exports accounted for 15% of global fertilizer exports, followed by China (13%) and Canada (7%). The official noted, however, that exports dropped by around 15% in 2022 against the previous year. He attributed the decline to the Ukraine-related Western sanctions and “all the problems for exports” they have caused. While Russian agricultural products have not been targeted directly by sanctions, the restrictions have resulted in a variety of problems for the country’s exporters due to the large quantity of shipments blocked in European ports. Click here to read... [4]

China’s controversial property tax appears to clear major hurdle, but questions remain on start date

China has completed a major technical step toward a controversial property tax that now awaits approval by leadership – a decision that could help alleviate the crushing debt pressure on local governments while advancing Beijing’s plans to narrow the wealth gap. The progress was announced on April 25 by natural resources minister Wang Guanghua, who said a national registration system is now in place after a decade-long effort to record all of the information on urban apartments, villas, offices and rural houses. In the past 10 years, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources has issued more than 790 million real estate certificates, which mainly refer to properties in official documents. However, Chinese households have expressed concerns that a US-like property tax would increase their holding costs, as only commercial housing holders currently pay a small property tax. And the move could be yet another sign for developers that the good old days are not coming back. The national household registration system “is a must-have precondition for the property tax”, said Zhang Dawei, a Beijing-based market analyst with Centaline Property. “It generated bigger and bigger impacts in the past 10 years, while we are feeling” the tax more. Click here to read... [5]

China building 24 nuclear power units, ranking No.1 in world: industry report

Construction is in progress on 24 nuclear power units in China, with a total installed capacity of about 26.81 million kilowatts (kW), ranking the first in the world, an industry report showed on April 26. Since 2022, China has approved 10 new nuclear power units, put three new commercial units into operation and started construction on six new units, read a report titled China Nuclear Energy Development Report 2023 released by the China Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA). China now has 54 commercial nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 56.82 million kW, ranking third in the world, the report said, noting that China's nuclear power units have maintained safe and stable operation for a long time, and the construction of new units has steadily advanced. In 2022, China's nuclear power units generated 417.78 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity, up 2.5 percent year-on-year, accounting for about 4.7 percent of the country's total electricity generation. Nuclear power generation in China ranks second in the world, the report revealed.Compared with coal-fired power stations, China's nuclear power generation in 2022 was equivalent to reducing the burning of standard coal by nearly 120 million tons and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 310 million tons, it noted. The safety performance of China's nuclear power is also at an advanced level globally, the report showed. Click here to read... [6]

Over 70% trade between China, Russia is settled in local currencies: Russian finance minister

The trade between China and Russia using yuan or rubles has climbed up quickly to account for more than 70 percent of their trade, as more countries are calling for trade to be carried out in their own currencies, and using the yuan as an alternative to the US dollar. More than 70 percent of trade between China and Russia is settled in yuan and roubles now. The ratio has expanded from the 30 percent about two years ago, Anton Siluanov, Russian Minister of Finance, told a forum on April 24. Siluanov said that the use of rubles and yuan for trade settlement is Russia's top priority and is "mutually beneficial" and "reliable" for both countries, Xinhua News Agency reported. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, the bilateral trade volume between China and Russia hit a record $190.27 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 29.3 percent. Russia isn't the only country calling for a shift away from using US dollar. China and Brazil have recently announced a deal to settle their trade in their own currencies, dropping the dollar as an intermediary. The move is expected to reduce costs, facilitate greater trade and promote bilateral investment. According to Chinese Customs, the bilateral trade between China and Brazil hit $171.49 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 4.9 percent. Click here to read... [7]

China And India Buy Russian Crude Above The Price Cap

China and India, the main customers of Russia's crude oil in recent months, have snapped up in April Russian cargoes at prices above the $60 per barrel price cap set by the G7, Reuters reports, citing traders and its own calculations. Russia's flagship crude grade Urals is now trading above the $60 price cap and has headed mostly to India and China so far this month, per data from Refinitiv Eikon cited by Reuters. India is estimated to account for over 70% of the Urals shipments in April, and China is receiving 20% of those shipments so far this month, according to Reuters estimates. China and India haven't joined the so-called Price Cap Coalition of mostly Western nations that imposed a price cap on Russia's crude oil if the cargoes are using Western insurance, shipping, and financing. Since the OPEC+ announcement of additional cuts through the end of the year, the price of Urals has moved higher, threatening the price cap imposed in a bid to hurt Russia's oil revenues. Russia was the single largest crude oil supplier to China in January and February, overtaking Saudi Arabia, which was the number-one supplier of oil to China last year, according to Chinese customs data. Click here to read... [8]

ASEAN, Japan and others eye broader currency safety net

Talks are underway to expand an Asian currency-swapping arrangement for countries in crisis to cover the impact of natural disasters, pandemics and other nonfinancial shocks, Nikkei has learned. The Chiang Mai Initiative was established in 2000 by Association of Southeast Asian Nation member countries and Japan, China and South Korea as a response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis. These countries, dubbed ASEAN+3, will meet in Incheon, South Korea, next month to seek an agreement on proposals to create a more flexible lifeline meant to prevent financial crises. The talks come as Asia faces the growing impact of climate change and the risk of new waves of infectious diseases. The $240 billion facility can only be tapped by countries already in a crisis caused by a currency crash or other shock. The proposal would allow currency swapping to meet temporary shortfalls in hard-currency holdings that occur after a natural disaster or other emergency that drives up government spending. Another aim is to avoid countries becoming heavily indebted to a particular country due to a disaster. Some member countries may be wary of overreliance on lending from China. Partly because countries increased their foreign-exchange reserves following the 1997 crisis, the currency-swapping arrangement has never actually been used and instead functions as a safety net. Click here to read... [9]

Pakistan cracks down on food smuggling to Afghanistan

Pakistan is clamping down on the smuggling of flour and other commodities for sale on the black market in war-torn Afghanistan, aiming to alleviate its own food insecurity and inflation. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif this month ordered stronger countermeasures at a meeting to review the smuggling of flour, wheat, sugar and fertilizer, all of which were declared essential items by the Federal Board of Revenue (FRB) soon afterward. The prime minister also directed the state-run space agency to provide real-time satellite imagery of the country's borders and movement data to help curb illegal trade. The FRB emphasized in official handouts that under customs laws, smuggling those essentials would be punishable by a fine equal to the total value of the goods and up to two years in jail. The tax collection body also specified "designated areas" for checks and immediate seizures along the porous 2,500-kilometer border with Afghanistan. Authorities have already seized hundreds of trucks loaded with bags of wheat and flour in various districts. This past April 26, officials confiscated over 440,000 kilograms of wheat. Pakistan, the world's fifth-most populous country, is mired in an economic crisis and is scrambling to stay afloat amid dangerously low foreign reserves. The government spends some of its precious dollars to import critical commodities, including wheat. Click here to read... [10]

China's Politburo says economic 'triple pressures' eased

China's top leadership said the country's better-than-expected economic growth so far this year is "mainly restorative" and pointed to expanding demand as the key to a sustained rebound. Since the start of the year, the triple pressures on the economy -- shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations -- have eased, the Politburo, the Communist Party's top decision-making body, said at a meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping on April 28. "The economic growth has exceeded expectations, market demand is picking up, economic growth is rebounding, and China's economy is off to a good start," the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing leaders of the Politburo. But "the current improvement in economic performance is mainly restorative," the leaders said. China's post-pandemic recovery continues to be challenged by weak "internal dynamics" and insufficient demand, while economic transition and upgrading face new headwinds, they said in the Xinhua report. The meeting came after official data showed China's GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, beating expectations as the expansion in consumption and industrial production picked up speed after the country abandoned its hyper-restrictive zero-COVID policy, which contributed to its second-slowest annual economic growth in more than four decades. The expectation-beating first-quarter figure has given confidence to economists at Nomura Holdings, who said it puts China "well on track" to meet this year's GDP growth target of "around 5%" and forecast growth of up to 7.6% in the second quarter. Click here to read... [11]

10% of Japan’s 2070 population expected to be foreign nationals

Foreign nationals will account for nearly 11 percent of Japan’s dwindling population of 87 million in 2070, according to an estimate by the labour ministry. The nation’s overall population will be around 70 percent of today’s total, mainly because of the declining birthrate, while the rate of foreign residents living in Japan will jump fivefold by 2070, the ministry’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research said on April 26. The institute’s estimate was based on the 2020 national census and took into account three factors: births, deaths and cross-border migration. Japan’s average fertility rate, or the number of children a woman is expected to give birth to in her lifetime, for 2065 was previously estimated to be 1.44. According to the latest estimate, the rate will fall further to 1.36 in 2070. However, Japan’s population decline is now expected to be less severe. The institute’s previous estimate was a population of 83.23 million in 2065. The new estimate is 87 million in 2070, the same level as in 1953, when full-scale television broadcasts started in Japan. According to the latest estimate, the population will drop below 100 million in 2056, three years later than the previous estimate. The slight decrease in the pace of depopulation is mainly because of the rise in foreign residents living in Japan. Click here to read... [12]

Kishida calls for plan to have women in 30% of top jobs by 2030

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida instructed ministers and experts at a meeting promoting gender equality to prepare a plan for having women in at least 30 percent of executive positions at companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market by 2030.“Securing diversity through promoting women’s empowerment and enabling innovation as a result, is crucial to achieving new capitalism and an inclusive society,” Kishida said at the April 27 meeting. Kishida plans to include the target in the 2023 "honebuto no hoshin" (big-boned policies) for women, which is this year’s version of the government’s policy to empower women and promote gender equality that the government will soon finalize. Keidanren (the Japan Business Federation), Japan’s largest business lobby, has set the same goal of having women hold at least 30 percent of the top managerial positions by 2030. The government will encourage the promotion of women within companies by including in the 2023 policy plans detailed measures such as a short-term numerical target and an action plan, Kishida said. Women held only 9 percent of executive positions at 3,795 listed companies in fiscal 2021, according to Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd. That means only 3,575 board directors, corporate auditors, or executive officers were women at these companies in fiscal 2021. Click here to read... [13]

China's planned changes to espionage law alarm foreign businesses

China is preparing to restrict transfers of any information related to national security under an updated counterespionage law, raising fears of a stepped-up crackdown on foreign individuals and companies here. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress began deliberating the changes April 24. The legislation, which will broaden the definition of espionage, is expected to pass April 26. This will mark the first time since 2014 that the law has been amended. The measure will expand the scope of the law -- now limited to state secrets -- to cover all documents, data, materials or items related to national security and interests. It does not provide further details on what constitutes national security and interests. A greater focus will also be put on cybersecurity. Discussions of a system's vulnerabilities to cyberattacks could run afoul of the new rules. Security authorities will be granted more power, including in inspecting baggage and electronic devices of those suspected of espionage. Chinese citizens and organizations will have to report suspected espionage. Logistics and telecommunications companies will need to provide technical support to fight espionage, while media organizations will have to educate the public on the issue. Foreign businesses worry that the changes could impact how they and their staffers operate in China. There is concern over arbitrary enforcement, such as individuals being detained without concrete evidence. Click here to read... [14]

Europe’s Economy Barely Avoids Recession

Europe’s economy skirted a recession at the start of the year, underlining the continent’s surprising resilience despite Russia’s war on Ukraine, signs of banking strains, and repeated interest-rate increases to combat stubbornly high inflation. The bloc’s return to modest growth coincides with a first-quarter pickup in China and a slowdown in the U.S. Taken together, these numbers suggest the global economy likely bounced back from a trough late last year, although headwinds from a restrictive monetary policy could put a lid on the revival. The European Union’s statistics agency said the combined economic output of the 20 eurozone countries rose at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first three months of 2023, after shrinking by 0.2% in the final quarter of last year. Back in November, the EU’s economists said they expected to see a recession in the bloc and most of its member states, as they assessed the cost of Russia’s throttling natural-gas supplies. The stronger economic output is in part due to a drop in energy prices from their summer peaks, due to an unusually warm winter and an influx of liquefied-natural gas from the U.S. and elsewhere. This was reflected in a rise in imports from the U.S., which were up a fifth in the first two months of 2023 against a year. Click here to read... [15]

Europe's Largest Gas Producer Is Set To Nationalize Its Gas Pipelines

Norway will nationalize all of its natural gas pipelines within the next five years, the country’s oil and energy ministry said on April 28. The nationalization plan would provide Norway with greater control over its critical infrastructure. Standing in the way of an immediate nationalization are existing concessions, which aren’t due to expire until 2028. After that, Norway will be able to move forward with its plan. Norway became Germany’s single-largest natural gas supplier last year, overtaking Russia, with Germany’s gas imports dropping by 12.3%. Norway provided Germany—Europe’s largest economy—with 33% of all of the gas it imported in 2022, while Russia’s share of the German gas market fell to 22% last year, the Germany Federal Network Agency Bundesnetzagentur said in early January.Also in January, Norway disclosed plans to pump its current high volumes of natural gas for at least another five years—through 2028—as operators pledged $30.3 billion to develop new fields and to extend the lifetimes of currently producing fields. Norway’s gas production was 9 billion standard cubic meters higher in 2022 than in 2021, with gas now accounting for more than half of production from the shelf. “Gas production is projected to remain at around 2022 levels for the next four to five years,” the directorate said in January. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Xi says he will send official to Ukraine to seek end to war

Chinese leader Xi Jinping appealed for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in a phone call April 26 with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, warning "there is no winner in a nuclear war," state media said, in a long-anticipated conversation after Beijing said it wanted to act as a peace mediator. Xi's government will send a "special representative" to Ukraine for talks about a possible "political settlement," said a government statement reported by state TV. China has tried to appear neutral in the war but refused to criticize Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a joint statement before the February 2020 invasion saying their governments had a "no limits friendship." Xi's government released a peace proposal in February and called for a cease-fire and talks. "Negotiation is the only viable way out," state TV said in a report on Xi's comments to Zelenskyy. "There is no winner in a nuclear war," the report said. "All parties concerned should remain calm and restrained in dealing with the nuclear issue and truly look at the future and destiny of themselves and humanity as a whole and work together to manage the crisis." Click here to read... [17]

Biden launches 2024 bid, betting his record will beat age worries

U.S. President Joe Biden on April 25 formally announced that he is running for re-election in 2024, asking voters to give him more time to "finish the job" he began when he was sworn into office and to set aside their concerns about extending his run as America's oldest president for another four years. Biden, who will be 86 by the end of a second term, is betting that his first-term legislative achievements and more than 50 years of experience in Washington will count for more than concerns over his age. He faces a smooth path to winning his party's nomination, with no serious Democratic rivals. But he's still set for a hard-fought struggle to retain the presidency in a bitterly divided nation. The announcement, in a three-minute video, comes on the four-year anniversary of when Biden declared for the White House in 2019, promising to heal the "soul of the nation" amid the turbulent presidency of Donald Trump -- a goal that has remained elusive. "I said we are in a battle for the soul of America, and we still are," Biden said. "The question we are facing is whether in the years ahead we have more freedom or less freedom. More rights or fewer." Click here to read... [18]

New legislation proposed for better protecting over 60 million overseas Chinese across 200 countries and regions

China's State Council has proposed expediting legislation on protecting overseas Chinese's rights and interests in its report submitted to the top legislature for deliberation as the report said that more than 60 million Chinese are residing in nearly 200 countries and regions, with the number of new immigrants for further study and business investment continuing to grow. The report was submitted on April 24 to the second session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee for deliberation. China will strengthen the establishment of public service systems for overseas Chinese, integrate the relevant services for overseas Chinese into the national public service plan, in order to provide universal and equal services for overseas Chinese, returned overseas Chinese and their family members, according to the report. Chen Xu, director of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office of the State Council said in the report that new situations, new characteristics and new trends have emerged, such as the composition of overseas Chinese undergoing profound changes, and their economic and technological strength steadily increasing. Meanwhile, overseas Chinese have become more aware of their integration into mainstream society and their social status has gradually improved, according to a report by China News Service (CNS) on April 26. Click here to read... [19]

Snap poll looms in Japan after Kishida's LDP wins by-elections

With Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) winning four of the five seats contested in Diet by-elections on April 23, there appear to be two views within the ruling party over Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's possible decision to dissolve the lower house soon for a snap election. The elections were held under favourable conditions for the LDP, such as Kishida's recent visit to Ukraine. One common view in the party envisions Kishida dissolving the lower house following the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima in May, before the end of the Diet's current session on June 21. The Kishida cabinet's approval rating rose to 48% in March from 35% in December last year, Nikkei polls show. The LDP could secure a good haul of seats in a general election, according to this view, with Kishida's ratings on the rise after the enactment of policies to bolster the falling birthrate. But a closer analysis of April 23's results suggests that the LDP is not thoroughly prepared for a snap election. Although the LDP performed well in the win-loss column in elections seen as a midterm report card on the Kishida government, it managed only narrow victories in the contest for a lower house seat in Chiba Prefecture and an upper house seat in Oita Prefecture. Click here to read... [20]

China affirms ex-Soviet nations’ sovereignty after uproar

The Chinese government said April 24 it respected the sovereignty of former Soviet Union republics after Beijing’s ambassador to France caused an uproar in Europe by saying they weren’t sovereign nations. Ambassador Lu Shaye was being called on the carpet by the governments of former Soviet republics, and French President Emmanuel Macron, since Lu’s comment to a French broadcaster. While answering a question about the status of Crimea, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014, Lu said that there was no agreement to “solidify their status as a sovereign country.” The governments of former Soviet republics Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were among those who rejected Ambassador Lu Shaye’s comment. Macron, at a summit in Ostend, Belgium, said in an interview with TFI Info, that “I don’t think it’s the place of a diplomat to use such language.” He offered “full solidarity to countries which were attacked in the reading of their histories and their borders.” A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said earlier that “China respects the sovereign status of the former Soviet countries after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.” Mao Ning said Beijing’s position is “consistent and clear” but gave no indication whether Lu’s comment was considered incorrect. The ambassador drew a parallel between Ukraine and the other former Soviet republics that declared independence from Moscow when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991. Click here to read... [21]

Uzbekistan votes on changes that extend president's tenure

Voters in Uzbekistan, the most populous former Soviet Central Asian republic, cast ballots Sunday in a referendum on a revised constitution that promises human rights reforms but that also would allow the country's president to stay in office until 2040. Approval appears certain. Backers have conducted an array of promotional events featuring local celebrities, and elections in Uzbekistan are widely regarded as non-competitive. The proposed changes include lengthening the presidential term from five to seven years, while retaining the existing two-term limit. But although President Shavkat Mirziyoyev is in his second term, the change in term length would allow him to run twice more after his current tenure ends in 2026. Other changes include abolishing capital punishment and boosting legal protections for citizens, including those accused of crimes. Under Mirziyoyev's predecessor, Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan was one of the region's most repressive countries. Mirziyoyev, who took over after Karimov died in 2016, touts the constitutional changes as showing that Uzbekistan will make freedoms and human rights paramount. The referendum originally was planned for last year, but was put off in the wake of deadly unrest in the Karakalpakstan region when it was announced that the changes would include rescinding Karakalpakstan's right to vote on whether to secede. Click here to read... [22]

U.S. to send nuclear ballistic sub to South Korea in show of force

U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will agree at their meeting in Washington on April 26 on the U.S. dispatch of a nuclear ballistic missile submarine to the Asian country. The deal aims to reinforce the effectiveness of extended deterrence by the U.S. in a visible form. Yoon is the first South Korean president received by the U.S. as a state guest in 12 years. A banquet will be held for Yoon on April 26 following the summit meeting. On April 27, he will address a joint session of Congress and affirm the strength of the bilateral alliance. A senior administration official told reporters that Biden and Yoon will adopt a "Washington declaration" featuring the reinforcement of the extended deterrence to deal with North Korea's nuclear and missile development programs. The deterrence is aimed at forestalling attacks on South Korea through the advance declaration of potential counterattacks by the U.S. As specific steps for the deterrence, the U.S. will send an Ohio-class nuclear submarine to South Korea. The dispatch of such a submarine to South Korea is the first since early 1980 during the Cold War, the official said. The move will clearly show people in South Korea that the U.S. is committed to protect their country. It is aimed at reassuring them of Washington's readiness to use nuclear weapons if South Korea is attacked by North Korea with nuclear weapons. Click here to read... [23]

Calls for South Korean nuclear arsenal unlikely to fade despite U.S. deal, analysts say

The United States granted South Korea a larger role in planning for a potential nuclear war with North Korea, but that will probably not ease doubts over U.S. defense commitments that have fuelled calls for a South Korean nuclear arsenal, experts said. Under a new “Washington Declaration” announced April 26, the United States will give Seoul detailed insights into, and a voice in, U.S. planning to deter and respond to a nuclear incident in the region. Seoul renewed a pledge not to pursue a nuclear bomb of its own. The document is in many ways a response to growing doubts in South Korea that the United States would risk its own cities--in range of North Korea’s latest ballistic missiles--to defend its ally, as well as a sense that the South is a growing global power that should be among the nuclear-armed states. Some in South Korea’s government also worry that if there is a new administration in the United States, Washington might provide less defense support. As a candidate, President Yoon Suk Yeol called for the return of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea, and in January he suggested that there may come a time when the country needs to develop its own arsenal. Click here to read... [24]

Grounding of U.S. Marine Unit Spotlights Lack of Ships in Asia-Pacific

The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit is meant to be a rapid-response force, designed for quick deployment to handle crises anywhere in the Asia-Pacific region. At times, it doesn’t have the ships to leave its bases in Japan. The unit was supposed to be on board the amphibious warship USS Rushmore earlier this year for a training exercise intended to help maintain readiness. Then the Rushmore had maintenance problems, and the mission was scrubbed, defense officials said. While the immediate impact was limited to a training exercise and temporary after another ship was brought in weeks later, the Marine unit’s grounded status illustrates the larger obstacles the U.S. is facing as it tries to pivot its military to handle challenges from China. The Rushmore is large enough for helicopters to land and take off, and the lack of such warships, defense officials said, might prevent Marine units from deploying on time. In a crisis, the officials said, the Marines could make do with other types of ships, but going without the aircraft supported by the larger amphibious assault ships means no air cover, hampering troop landings and limiting operations. Overall, the defense officials said, the Navy doesn’t have enough amphibious ships to transport troops—a central part of the Marines’ strategy to hop from island to island in the Asia-Pacific and harry Chinese forces in the event of conflict. Click here to read... [25]

Senior Iranian Cleric Assassinated Amid Unrest

A top Iranian cleric close to the country’s supreme leader was assassinated April 26, authorities said, in a rare attack on a senior religious figure at a time of continued unrest. Ayatollah Abbas Ali Soleimani was fatally shot by a single assailant in a bank in Babolsar, in Iran’s northern province of Mazandaran near the Caspian Sea. State media said authorities had arrested a suspect at the scene and were investigating who ordered the killing. A motive wasn’t disclosed. The assassin was a security guard at the bank who appeared to have acted spontaneously and not as part of a terrorist plan, local Gov. Mahmoud Hosseinipour told state TV. Mr. Soleimani was a member of the Assembly of Experts, a deliberative body empowered to appoint the supreme leader of Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei either directly appoints or vets the assembly’s membership.The incident comes after months of nationwide antigovernment rallies following the death in September of Mahsa Amini while she was in police custody in Tehran. Protests have recently erupted over the suspected poisoning of hundreds of schoolgirls in dozens of schools across the country, which some Iranians blame on the government. Mr. Soleimani was Mr. Khamenei’s former clerical envoy to Zahedan, the capital of Sistan-Baluchistan, a province on Iran’s eastern border that has long been a center of unrest. Click here to read... [26]

China Locks Information on the Country Inside a Black Box

China’s party-state, long steeped in secrecy, is creating a black box around information on the world’s second-largest economy, alarming global businesses and investors. Prodded by President Xi Jinping’s emphasis on national security, authorities in recent months have restricted or outright cut off overseas access to various databases involving corporate-registration information, patents, procurement documents, academic journals and official statistical yearbooks. Of extra concern in recent days: Access to one of the most crucial databases on China, Shanghai-based Wind Information Co., whose economic and financial data are widely used by analysts and investors both inside and outside the country, appears to be drying up. Following recent expansion of China’s anti-espionage law, aimed at fighting perceived foreign threats, many foreign think tanks, research firms and other nonfinancial entities are finding they can’t renew subscriptions to Wind over what Wind described as “compliance” issues, according to interviews with Western researchers and macroeconomic analysts. A Wind service representative said in an email response that customers who want to renew their contracts need to contact their account managers. The representative didn’t elaborate. The increased restrictions on information come as Beijing has embarked on a campaign to scrutinize and pressure Western management consultants, auditors and other service providers that multinational companies rely on to assess risks in China. Click here to read... [27]

Defense spending in Europe back to Cold War levels – SIPRI

Europe’s military expenditure saw its sharpest year-on-year increase in at least 30 years in 2022, driven by the conflict in Ukraine, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) latest annual report. Meanwhile, total global military expenditure was up 3.7% in real terms, reaching a new height of $2.24 trillion. Worldwide, the three biggest spenders last year were the United States, China and Russia, together accounting for 56% of the total. US spending dwarfed that of its geopolitical adversaries, however, reaching a total of $877 billion, while Beijing spent $292 billion and Moscow about $86.4 billion, according to SIPRI data. The sharpest rise by far (13%) was seen in Europe, however, largely driven by Russian and Ukrainian spending, but also by ramped-up fears in neighbouring states. “Military aid to Ukraine and concerns about a heightened threat from Russia strongly influenced many other states’ spending decisions,” the report explained. In Central and Western Europe, military expenditure surged to a total of $345 billion, surpassing in real terms the spending in 1989 as the Cold War drew to a close. Compared with more recent years, expenditure by these states was still 30% higher in 2022 than in 2013. Russia’s military operation in Ukraine had an “immediate impact” on military spending decisions in the region, SIPRI noted. Click here to read... [28]

Japan seeking to ease weapons export ban

Japan’s ruling coalition has held the first round of talks on reviewing the country’s strict weapons export rules on April 25, Kyodo news agency reports. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, which wants Tokyo to play a greater role in the global security arena. Amid the conflict in Ukraine, it is pushing for the rules on overseas transfers of defence equipment and technology to be eased. Under the Constitution, which was drawn up after Japan’s defeat in World War II, weapons can only be supplied to a foreign country if it jointly develops them with Japan or produces them. However, the LDP’s junior coalition partner, Komeito, has resisted the proposed changes, arguing that the arrival of Japanese arms in the international market would go against the country’s policy of pacifism and escalate conflicts around the globe.“I hope our discussions will set a concrete direction for issues regarding defence equipment transfers,” Itsunori Onodera, the former Japanese defense minister who now heads the LDP’s research commission on national security, said as the parties met in Tokyo. During the discussions, Komeito’s representative, Shigeki Sato, reiterated his party’s stance that the sides should not compromise “the postwar path of Japan as a peace-loving nation,” as cited by Kyodo. Click here to read... [29]

Iranian president plans Syria visit to ‘celebrate victory’ – officials

Ebrahim Raisi will become the first Iranian president to visit Syria in over a decade when he travels to Damascus this week for talks that Tehran’s ambassador to Damascus has touted as a “turning point” in regional relations. The two-day trip to Damascus will foster closer ties between embattled nations that oppose Western world dominance, Ambassador Hossein Akbari claimed on April 30 in an interview with Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency, apparently alluding to America’s hegemonic foreign policy. “This trip will not only be beneficial for Tehran and Damascus, but it is a very good event that other countries in the region can also take advantage of.” The timing of the visit makes it all the more important because of changes happening in the region, Akbari said. Iran and Saudi Arabia reportedly plan to open embassies in each other’s countries within days after agreeing last month to normalize relations under a deal brokered by China. Meanwhile, some Arab countries are normalizing relations with Damascus after years of joining the US in backing rebel fighters in a failed regime-change campaign against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian uprising began in 2011, triggering a war that killed over 500,000 people and created a massive refugee crisis. Assad emerged victorious, regaining control of most of his country, thanks largely to military and economic support from Iran and Russia. Click here to read... [30]

Chinese President Xi Jinping ‘personally intervened’ to secure Saudi-Iran deal, senior diplomat says

President Xi Jinping personally took the initiative to help persuade the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic ties, according to a senior Chinese diplomat. In an interview with the party mouthpiece People’s Daily published on April 29, Wang Di, director of the foreign ministry’s Department of West Asian and North African Affairs, also signalled that China was willing to play a great role as a mediator in the region. Without naming the United States, Wang also accused “some large countries outside the region” of “causing long-term instability in the Middle East” because of their own “self-interest”. The Iran-Saudi deal to end a seven-year diplomatic rift was seen by many analysts as a clear sign of China’s growing ambitions in the Middle East beyond economic activities. In the interview Wang signalled that China was also willing to act as a mediator in other conflicts in the region “In December last year, President Xi Jinping went to Saudi Arabia for a state visit. In February, Xi Jinping received Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during his visit to China,” Wang said. “During this period, Xi personally persuaded the leaders of the two countries and supported Saudi and Iran to develop a friendly relationship as neighbours.” Click here to read... [31]

Health

No more border controls for COVID-19 starting April 29 in Japan

Japan will lift its border controls for COVID-19 for all travellers on April 29, waiving the required proof of a negative test and vaccine certificate, the government said April 28. The government has required people arriving on direct flights from the Chinese mainland to take PCR tests upon arrival in Japan, but that rule will be abolished as well. The health ministry on April 27 formally decided to downgrade the severity category of COVID-19 and treat it the same way as seasonal influenza starting on May 8. Therefore, the government decided to move up the schedule for the eased border control measures just in time for the Golden Week holidays. The government, however, will still require travelers who show symptoms of COVID-19 to take a test upon arrival until May 7, as well as maintain facilities to accommodate those who test positive. On May 8, the government will start a system called “infectious diseases genome surveillance” to monitor possible invasions of variant strains. It will analyze specimens collected from those who have symptoms, such as high fever and coughing, upon arrival. The government also decided to abolish its decision-making body on COVID-related measures on May 8. Click here to read... [32]

More than 82 percent of population in China has contracted COVID-19 between December and February: Chinese CDC

A weekly report published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) concluded that more than 82 percent of the Chinese population contracted coronavirus between December 2022 and February 2023. The report said that COVID-19 cases surged during December 2022 through to January 2023. Since many of those infected did not undertake a nucleic acid test or antigen test, the CDC could not accurately count exact infection numbers. A research team from the Chinese CDC conducted online surveys from December 2022 to February 2023, asking respondents for their basic information and infection details. The results revealed that the self-reported infections in China peaked during December 19 to 21, 2022. As of February 7, 2023, more than 82.4 percent of the country's population contracted the coronavirus. The team also discovered that domestically developed COVID-19 vaccines are effective in preventing COVID-19 symptoms, including fever, sore muscles and fatigue. The effectiveness of the booster shot against infection by the Omicron sub-variant was 49 percent within three months of vaccination and 37.9 percent three to six months after vaccination. The research team admitted that the research methodology had certain limitations as the survey is limited to only WeChat users, and only covered a sample of 2,316 participants who were infected within certain dates. Click here to read... [33]