Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 20 February- 26 February, 2023

Economic

US-China relations: foreign firms slow expansion plans with trade tensions ‘very likely’ to expand

Trade tensions between China and the United States are having an increasingly negative impact on businesses in southern China compared with the past two years, according to a new survey. Some 90 per cent of firms that took part in the survey said the US-China trade dispute is “very likely” or “quite likely” to expand this year, with 64 per cent expecting the impact on business to last for more than two years, said the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in South China. US trade war tariffs had a negative impact on nearly 60 per cent of companies in southern China last year, compared to 55 per cent in 2021 and 53 per cent in 2020, according to the special report on the state of business released on Feb 27, which surveyed 210 firms in December before China fully relaxed its zero-Covid policy. Negative impacts brought by Chinese tariffs also grew in 2022, increasing around 5 per cent. But compared with US tariffs, the impact was relatively mild, the report said. The respondents comprise 40 per cent wholly foreign-owned companies, 18 per cent joint ventures and 38 per cent Chinese companies. In terms of origin, 28 per cent of the companies taking part came from the US, 25 per cent from Europe, Canada, Hong Kong or Macau and Southeast Asia and 43 per cent from mainland China. Click here to read... [2]

China’s top leadership stresses tech self-reliance to tackle foreign technological blockade, urging to bolster basic research

China's top leadership has stressed, twice over the past month or so, making efforts to achieve self-reliance and strength in science and technology, reflecting the great importance that's attached to the country's science and technology development amid increasingly fierce global competition as well as the US' relentless push for a so-called technology decoupling. On Feb 21, the Political Bureau of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a study session on effectively strengthening basic research and consolidating the foundation of self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Feb 22. While chairing the study session, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, urged the strengthening of basic research so as to consolidate self-reliance and strength in science and technology, according to Xinhua. Xi also noted that strengthening basic research is an urgent requirement to achieve greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology, and it is the only way to build a world leader in science and technology. This comes less than one month after the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee held, on January 31, a group study session on accelerating the establishment of a new pattern of development. Click here to read... [3]

China aims to launch nearly 13,000 satellites to ‘suppress’ Elon Musk’s Starlink, researchers say

Researchers say China plans to build a huge satellite network in near-Earth orbit to provide internet services to users around the world – and to stifle Elon Musk’s Starlink. The project has the code name “GW”, according to a team led by associate professor Xu Can with the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Space Engineering University in Beijing. But what these letters stand for is unclear. The GW constellation will include 12,992 satellites owned by the newly established China Satellite Network Group Co, Xu and his colleagues said in a paper about anti-Starlink measures published in the Chinese journal Command Control and Simulation on February 15. The launch schedule for these satellites remains unknown, but the number would rival the scale of SpaceX’s planned network of more than 12,000 satellites by 2027. Xu’s team said the GW satellite constellation was likely to be deployed quickly, “before the completion of Starlink”. This would “ensure that our country has a place in low orbit and prevent the Starlink constellation from excessively pre-empting low-orbit resources”, they wrote. The Chinese satellites could also be placed in “orbits where the Starlink constellation has not yet reached”, the researchers said, adding that they would “gain opportunities and advantages at other orbital altitudes, and even suppress Starlink”. Click here to read... [4]

Tech war: Taiwan says US-led Chip 4 alliance held first senior officials meeting

The US-led “Fab 4” semiconductor alliance of Taiwan, the United States, Japan and South Korea held its first video meeting of senior officials earlier this month focused on supply chain resilience, Taiwan’s foreign ministry said on Feb 25. The United States last September convened the first meeting of the working group, colloquially called “Fab 4” or “Chip 4”, to discuss how to strengthen the semiconductor supply chain, after a global chip crunch caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The semiconductor shortage, which forced some carmakers to halt production, thrust chip powerhouse Taiwan into the spotlight and has made supply chain management a bigger priority for governments around the world. Taiwan’s foreign ministry said the “US-East Asia Semiconductor Supply Chain Resilience Working Group”, or “Fab 4”, had after many months of coordination held the first video meeting of senior officials from its working group on February 16. “The focus of the discussions of the participating quartet at the meeting was mainly on how to maintain the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain and explore the possible future cooperation directions of all parties,” the ministry said in a statement. Click here to read... [5]

China pushes for resurrection of EU investment deal

China has stepped up lobbying of European Union decision-makers to revive a planned investment deal in its latest effort to improve ties with the Brussels-based bloc. Beijing has proposed it and the EU simultaneously scrap sanctions that derailed the proposed Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) in 2021, but analysts say big hurdles remain to put the accord back on track. China's overtures come as it seeks to change tone from an era of aggressive "wolf warrior" diplomacy and looks to build international alliances in the face of growing tensions with the U.S. Fu Cong, China's ambassador to the EU since December, has proposed resurrecting the European investment deal, which was agreed politically in late 2020 but never received the necessary approval from the European Parliament. Ratification stalled after Beijing sanctioned EU officials in response to European bloc sanctions over alleged widespread human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region. Fu said this month that the world economy was "not going through a very good time" and acknowledged that "some European business people have some complaints about the access to [the] Chinese market." "We are actually listening to initiatives from the EU side; our proposal is that we leave the sanctions simultaneously," he said during a briefing at the European Policy Center on Feb. 8, according to a transcript. Click here to read... [6]

Toxic smog: Iran criticised for winter ‘air pollution catastrophe’

In Iran this winter, hospital emergency rooms have been full, schools regularly closed and many people unable to work or even leave their homes due to toxic smog, which a leading United Nations expert is calling an “air pollution catastrophe”. Dirty air is a chronic problem in Iran. Many of its cities including Tehran regularly rank among the world’s most polluted, due to emissions from millions of older vehicles on the roads, and from refineries, power plants and factories. About 40,000 people nationwide die each year due to health problems linked to air pollution, from respiratory infections and lung cancer to heart attacks, according to the Air Pollution Research Center at the Tehran University of Medical Sciences. However, environmental experts say the situation is deteriorating as the country burns ever-larger quantities of mazut – a low-quality and highly-polluting fuel – to sustain its power plants during a natural gas shortage. Burning mazut emits toxic gases such as sulphur dioxide, and can contribute to severe illness and premature death, according to health experts. “Iran is in the middle of an air pollution catastrophe with astronomically high levels of particulate matter (PM) in the air,” said David Boyd, the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights and the environment. Click here to read... [7]

China’s new coal plant approvals surge in 2022, highest since 2015--research

China approved the construction of another 106 gigawatts of coal-fired power capacity last year, four times higher than a year earlier and the highest since 2015, driven by energy security considerations, research showed on Feb 27. Over the year, 50 GW of coal power capacity went into construction across the country, up by more than half compared to the previous year, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) said. “The speed at which projects progressed through permitting to construction in 2022 was extraordinary, with many projects sprouting up, gaining permits, obtaining financing and breaking ground apparently in a matter of months,” said GEM analyst Flora Champenois. The amount of new capacity connected to the grid had slowed in recent years after a decline in new approvals over the 2017-2020 period, but it is set to rebound over the next few years, driven by concerns about power shortages. Many of the newly approved projects are identified as “supporting” baseload capacity designed to ensure the stability of the power grid and minimize blackout risks, the CREA-GEM report said. However, many are being built in regions which already have a clear capacity surplus, and power supply problems would be better addressed by improving grid reliability and efficiency, the authors said. Click here to read... [8]

Russia's economy contracted 2.1% in 2022, less than expected

Russia's economy contracted 2.1% last year, the federal statistics service said on Feb 20, compared with a 5.6% year-on-year rise in 2021, hurt by the fallout from Moscow's decision to send tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine last February. Rosstat's first gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for 2022 was a marked improvement on forecasts made soon after the conflict began. The economy ministry at one point predicted that Russia's economy would shrink more than 12% last year, exceeding the falls in output seen after the Soviet Union collapsed and during the 1998 financial crisis. Before the conflict in Ukraine began, the Russian government had expected GDP growth of 3% in 2022. Manufacturing industries and wholesale and retail trade were among the sectors that declined in 2022, while agriculture, hospitality, construction and mining all registered growth. Public administration and "military security" gained 4.1% in 2022, the statistics agency said, adding to a 3.3% rise in 2021. President Vladimir Putin in January paid tribute to the defense sector for supporting Russia's economy. Increased military spending is smoothing out a drop in Russia's industrial production, analysts say. Net exports increased to 12.8% from 9.3%, "due to the prices of exported fuel and energy products being significantly above imports." Click here to read... [9]

U.S. hits Russia with sanctions, tariffs on Ukraine war anniversary

The United States marked the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24 by announcing new sanctions against Russia and its allies, new export controls and tariffs aimed at undermining Moscow's ability to wage war. Washington also said it would provide $2 billion in more weaponry for Kyiv as it prepares for a spring offensive. The aid did not include F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine has requested. President Joe Biden was to consult leaders of the G7 allies and Ukraine President Volodomyr Zelenskyy at 9 a.m. to discuss what more aid can be provided to the Ukrainians. The United States joined with G7 allies with plans to impose sanctions that will target 200 individuals and entities and a dozen Russian financial institutions. The sanctions are aimed at targets in Russia and "third-country actors" across Europe, Asia and the Middle East that are supporting Russia's war effort, the White House said in a fact sheet. "We will sanction additional actors tied to Russia's defense and technology industry, including those responsible for backfilling Russian stocks of sanctioned items or enabling Russian sanctions evasion," it said. Biden was to sign proclamations to raise tariffs on Russian products imported to the United States. They will result in increased tariffs on more than 100 Russian metals, minerals and chemical products worth about $2.8 billion to Russia. Click here to read... [10]

Macron outlines new Africa strategy

Emmanuel Macron said on Feb 27 that France’s military presence in Africa will see a “noticeable reduction” as Paris attempts to counter rising anti-French sentiment fomenting in some of its former African colonies on the continent. “The change will happen in the coming months with a noticeable reduction of our numbers and a great presence in these bases of our African partners,” Macron said at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Monday ahead of his four-nation African visit later this week. The French leader is due to visit Gabon, Angola, Congo-Brazzaville and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The “reorganization,” as Macron put it, “does not intend to be a withdrawal” and France will retain a presence on the continent, he said, “but with a reduced footprint.” His visit comes a little more than a week after Burkina Faso ejected French troops from the country following a military coup. Mali did the same last year after its military junta reportedly began working with Russian military contractors. This ended a near decade-long collaboration between French forces and the African country against Islamist insurgents in the region, with Paris ultimately being criticized for a lack of success in the struggle against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) and Al-Qaeda affiliates, particularly in the Sahel region. Click here to read... [11]

Singapore links digital payments with India after Thailand

Singapore on Feb 21 launched a new digital payments connection with India, following similar plans made previously with Thailand and Malaysia as the Asian finance hub strives to become a regional nexus for transactions worth billions of dollars. The initiative, backed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Reserve Bank of India, links Singapore's PayNow digital payments infrastructure with India's Unified Payments Interface. This is set up to allow real-time virtual transfers of money across borders in seconds, and has been billed as a means to reduce the cost and inefficiencies of remittances between both countries. "Our two central banks have been working on this in earnest," Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Feb 21, observing the launch of the payments initiative with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi via a video link. "We are taking retail payments connectivity another step forward," he added. "The PayNow-UPI linkage will offer cheaper, faster, and safer cross-border retail payments and remittances, for businesses and individuals alike, directly between bank accounts." Singapore has a sizable presence of Indian workers who use remittance agents to transfer money to their families back home but these transactions typically take a few days. Click here to read... [12]

COVID worsens North Korea’s food shortage, but no famine yet

There’s little doubt that North Korea’s chronic food shortages worsened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and speculation about the country’s food insecurity has flared as its top leaders prepare to discuss the “very important and urgent task” of formulating a correct agricultural policy. Unconfirmed reports say an unspecified number of North Koreans have been dying of hunger. But experts say there is no sign of mass deaths or famine. They say the upcoming ruling Workers’ Party meeting is likely intended to shore up support for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he pushes ahead with his nuclear weapons program in defiance of intense U.S.-led pressure and sanctions. “Kim Jong Un can’t advance his nuclear program stably if he fails to resolve the food problem fundamentally because public support would be shaken,” said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul. “The meeting is being convened to solidify internal unity while pulling together ideas to address the food shortage.” An enlarged plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party is slated for late February. Its specific agenda is unknown, but the party’s powerful Politburo earlier said that an “a turning point is needed to dynamically promote radical change in agricultural development.” Click here to read... [13]

Drought in Horn of Africa worse than in 2011 famine

Drought trends in the Horn of Africa are now worse than they were during the 2011 famine in which hundreds of thousands of people died. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center said on Feb 22 that below-normal rainfall is expected during the rainy season over the next three months. “In parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Uganda that have been most affected by the recent drought, this could be the 6th failed consecutive rainfall season,” it said. Drier than normal conditions have also increased in parts of Burundi, eastern Tanzania, Rwanda and western South Sudan, the centre added. While famine thresholds have not been reached, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Feb 22 that 8.3 million people – more than half Somalia’s population – will need humanitarian assistance this year. Workneh Gebeyehu, the head of IGAD, urged governments and partners to act “before it’s too late”. The drought, the longest on record in Somalia, has lasted almost three years and tens of thousands of people have died. Last month, the UN resident coordinator for Somalia warned excess deaths in the country will “almost certainly” surpass those of the famine declared in the country in 2011, when more than 260,000 people died of starvation. The southern region of Somalia is scattered with dead livestock. Click here to read... [14]

Oman joins Saudi in opening its airspace for Israeli carriers

Israeli airlines can now fly over Oman after the Gulf nation opened its airspace for all carriers that meet the civil aviation authority’s requirements. Israel’s foreign minister Eli Cohen on Feb 23 thanked Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said for the decision which will shorten flight times to Asia. “It’s an historic and significant decision for the Israeli economy and the Israeli traveller,” Cohen said. Last year Saudi Arabia allowed Israeli airlines to use its airspace but because Omani airspace was closed, Israeli carriers could not use the route to fly to Asia. The Saudi Arabian decision came after United States President Joe Biden visited the region last year. Flight from Israel to Asian destinations such as Thailand and India would be shortened by at least two hours. Israel and Oman have no diplomatic relations, but the Gulf state seemed to have been less reluctant in publicising its relations with Israel. In 2018, the late Sultan Qaboos received Netanyahu in Muscat. Oman was one of the first countries to congratulate the UAE and Bahrain, who established diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020. Click here to read... [15]

Iraq To Drop Dollar In Trade With China

The Iraqi central bank announced Feb 23 that, for the first time, it plans to allow trade from China to be settled directly in yuan instead of the US dollar to improve access to foreign currency. "It is the first time imports would be financed from China in yuan, as Iraqi imports from China have been financed in (US) dollars only," the government’s economic adviser, Mudhir Salih, told Reuters. According to a statement released by the Iraqi central bank, carrying out transactions in the Chinese currency would boost the balances of Iraqi banks with accounts with Chinese banks. However, this option depends on the size of the central bank’s yuan reserves. A second option to boost local banks’ yuan balances would involve converting US dollars held in the central bank’s accounts with JP Morgan and the Development Bank of Singapore (DBS) to yuan before paying the final beneficiary in China. The Iraqi central bank has been on a mad dash to compensate for a dollar shortage in local markets. This crisis prompted the cabinet to approve a currency revaluation earlier this month. Last year, the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York began enforcing stricter controls on international transactions by Iraqi commercial banks, forcing them to comply with specific SWIFT global transfer system criteria to access their foreign reserves. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

US joins EU in rejecting Beijing’s peace proposal, sanctions more Chinese firms

The US-China confrontation over Russia’s war on Ukraine ratcheted up on several fronts on Feb 24, the one-year anniversary of the invasion’s start, as Washington and its allies largely rejected a peace plan by Beijing and the US announced new sanctions on Chinese companies it charged were helping to fuel the conflict. The debate over China’s peace proposal also carried over to a special meeting of the United Nations Security Council. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan dismissed the 12-point peace proposal China released earlier on Feb 24, telling CNN that Beijing should have ended it after the first point, which calls for “respecting the sovereignty of all countries”. Among its other elements, the plan calls for a ceasefire, which would freeze Russian troops in place on Ukrainian territory, and for an immediate end to all sanctions not endorsed by the UN Security Council, where Russia holds veto power. Sullivan’s rebuff was in line with that of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who implied that Beijing’s proposal had not changed their view that China had taken Russia’s side. Click here to read... [17]

Putin reveals conditions for widening Ukraine operation

If the West decides to supply Ukraine with longer-range advanced weapons, Russia will have to push the threat further away from its borders, President Vladimir Putin has warned in his annual address to parliament. “The West is using Ukraine both as a battering ram against Russia and as a training ground,” he added on Feb 21, nearly a year after Moscow launched its military operation in the neighboring state. “One thing must be clear to everyone,” Putin said. “The longer the range of the Western systems that arrive in Ukraine, the further we will be forced to push the threat away from our borders. It’s obvious.” Russia sent troops in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, citing the need to protect the people of Donbass and Kiev’s failure to implement the 2014-15 Minsk accords. Many Western countries have since supplied Ukraine with heavy weapons, including US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and M777 howitzers. On Feb 19, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said his country would be the first “to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons.” US President Joe Biden, who traveled to Kiev on Feb 20, also promised to send more weapons, including additional HIMARS rockets. Moscow has repeatedly accused Kiev of using foreign arms to indiscriminately shell cities and kill civilians. Click here to read... [18]

US reiterates claim that China is considering sending Russia military help for Ukraine war

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Feb 23 reiterated his contention that Beijing is considering providing military support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, a claim the Chinese government has refuted. While the American intelligence community has not detected “systematic” evasion by China of sanctions against Russia, “we also have picked up information over the last couple of months that strongly indicates that China is now considering doing that”, Blinken said in an online discussion with The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief, Jeffrey Goldberg. Concern that China might provide arms or other materiel for use against Ukraine was one of the main messages Blinken delivered to Beijing’s top-ranking diplomat Wang Yi at last week’s Munich Security Conference in Germany. “I … directly told [Wang] this concern, what we were seeing, and reminded him of the many conversations between President [Joe] Biden and President Xi [Jinping], and reminded him that this would be a serious problem in the relationship,” America’s top envoy recalled. “I’m hopeful but in a very clear-minded way that China will get that message because it’s not only coming from us,” Blinken added. “It’s coming from many other countries who do not want to see China aiding and abetting in a material way Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Click here to read... [19]

China to train 5,000 security personnel from developing countries over next 5 years

China plans to train 5,000 security personnel from developing countries over the next five years in a move that is expected to boost Beijing’s global security influence. The announcement, which appeared in a paper on Beijing’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) published on Feb 21, comes as China’s overseas security footprint has worried its rivals. The initiative, seen as an alternative to the Western-led security order, was first proposed by President Xi Jinping during the Boao Forum for Asia annual conference last April. According to the GSI paper, Beijing plans to create more international platforms for exchange and cooperation to address security challenges in areas such as counterterrorism, cybersecurity, biosecurity and emerging technologies, with a view to improving governance capacity in non-traditional security. China would also encourage more exchanges and cooperation among university-level military and police academies, the paper said. It also said China was willing to provide 5,000 training opportunities for professionals from other developing countries over the next five years to help them address global security issues. Li Wei, an anti-terrorism expert at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), said the plan for training and exchanges in non-traditional security fields, especially anti-terrorism, showed Beijing felt a responsibility to address global security challenges. Click here to read... [20]

NATO members float Ukraine negotiations plan – WSJ

NATO's three most powerful European members collectively back a plan aimed at pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Moscow, the Wall Street Journal reported on Feb 24. The newspaper claimed that France and Germany support the British initiative and have already advised President Vladimir Zelensky to talk, though he has refused. Under the proposals, Kiev would receive even more Western weapons and be provided with security guarantees just short of NATO membership, the outlet explained, citing anonymous officials. Though French President Emmanuel Macron has publicly called for “a military offensive which pushes back the Russian front in order to open the way for a return to negotiations,” he has privately advised Zelensky to make “difficult decisions,” according to officials who spoke to the Journal. Over dinner at the Elysee Palace earlier this month, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Zelensky he needed to start considering peace talks, according to people familiar with the conversation. London, Paris and Berlin would not comment on the record. “We keep repeating that Russia mustn’t win, but what does that mean? If the war goes on for long enough with this intensity, Ukraine’s losses will become unbearable,” a senior French official told the Journal. “And no one believes they will be able to retrieve Crimea.” Click here to read... [21]

French President Emmanuel Macron to visit China in April on mission to help end Ukraine war

French President Emmanuel Macron plans to visit China in early April in hopes of encouraging Beijing to pressure Russia into ending the war in Ukraine. Macron said in Paris on Feb 25 that peace was only possible if “the Russian aggression was halted, troops withdrawn and [the] territorial sovereignty of Ukraine and its people was respected”. “The fact that China is engaging in peace efforts is a good thing,” he said. “China must help us put pressure on Russia so that it never uses chemical or nuclear weapons, [an effort] which China has already made, and that it stops its aggression as a precondition for talks.” During the trip, Macron will urge China to join European forces to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to France’s consul general in Hong Kong, Christile Drulhe. “Our president will certainly raise [the issue of] Ukraine when he goes to China,” she said in an academic forum at the University of Hong Kong on Feb 23. Song Luzheng, an international affairs researcher at Fudan University, said Macron could not wait until the second half of this year to make the trip. “For France, the most important thing now is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Europe can’t bear the long-term stand-off and France can’t take it either,” Song said. Click here to read... [22]

Taiwan displays growing clout with top diplomat's U.S. visit

Taiwan has scored a major diplomatic breakthrough with its foreign minister's first publicized visit to the U.S. capital area since Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu and National Security Council chief Wellington Koo, along with Hsiao Bi-khim, top envoy to the U.S., and other senior officials arrived Feb 21, meeting with U.S. officials in a visit seen as a push back against China's efforts to isolate Taiwan. The Taiwanese delegation held closed-door talks with Wendy Sherman, the deputy secretary of state, and Daniel Kritenbrink, the State Department's top diplomat for East Asia, according to Taiwanese state media. The Financial Times described the meeting as part of an annual "special diplomatic dialogue" between senior officials from the two sides. This was the first time -- at least publicly -- a Taiwanese foreign minister visited the U.S. capital since 1979, when President Jimmy Carter broke ties with the Kuomintang regime in Taiwan. In the following decades, Taiwan democratized and removed the Kuomintang (KMT), now the main opposition party, from power. The U.S. trip also came shortly after KMT's controversial tour in China this month, when party Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia met Chinese government officials in the mainland. Click here to read... [23]

Taiwan girds for close presidential race amid China pressure

With Taiwan's presidential election less than a year away, the battle lines between the two main parties are being drawn, with an increasingly belligerent China very much in evidence. Presidential and legislative elections for Taiwan are due to take place in January 2024. President Tsai Ing-wen of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has been in power since 2016, and will finish her second term next year. She is constitutionally barred from a third term. If Tsai's successor as party president wins, existing policies will be largely maintained. However, if the Kuomintang, the main opposition party, wins there could be a geopolitical shift much closer to Beijing. The issues at stake in the next 11 months include Taiwan's long-term security and the risk of military conflict with Beijing. The election year will help determine whether Tsai's "prudent but firm policy" toward China -- and strengthening of relations with the world, especially the U.S. and Japan -- will continue, said Gerrit van der Wees, a former Dutch diplomat who teaches Taiwanese history at George Mason University in Washington. Under the spotlight is Tsai's approach of "insisting on Taiwan's sovereignty and existence as a free democracy, but avoiding moves that would substantially change the status quo," he said. Click here to read... [24]

Putin says Xi to visit Russia, ties reaching 'new frontiers'

President Vladimir Putin said on Feb 22 that China's Xi Jinping would visit Russia, saying relations had reached "new frontiers" amid U.S. concerns Beijing could provide material support to the invasion of Ukraine. Chinese weapons supplies to Russia would threaten a potential escalation of the war into a confrontation between Russia and China on the one side and Ukraine and the U.S.-led NATO military alliance on the other. Putin welcomed China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, to the Kremlin, telling him bilateral trade was better than expected and could soon reach $200 billion a year, up from $185 billion in 2022. "We await a visit of the President of the People's Republic of China to Russia, we have agreed on this," Putin told Wang. "Everything is progressing, developing. We are reaching new frontiers," Putin said. Tass news agency cited Yi -- who held a separate meeting with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov -- as saying China would "firmly adhere to an objective and impartial position and play a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis." The Russian foreign ministry said it welcomed China taking a more active role in efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and said it valued China's "balanced approach." But in a separate statement, the ministry said Lavrov and Yi had not discussed a reported Chinese peace plan. Click here to read... [25]

China, Japan square off over arms and balloons at first security talks in four years

China said it was troubled by Japan’s military buildup and Tokyo took aim at Beijing’s military ties to Russia and its suspected use of spy balloons during the Asian powers’ first formal security talks in four years on Feb 22. The talks, aimed at easing tensions between the world’s second- and third-largest economies, come as Tokyo worries that Beijing will resort to force to take control of Taiwan in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, sparking a conflict that could embroil Japan and disrupt global trade. Japan in December said it would double defense spending over the next five years to 2% of gross domestic product--a total of $320 billion--to deter China from resorting to military action. Beijing, which increased defense spending by 7.1% last year, spends more than four times as much as Japan on its forces. Tokyo plans to acquire longer range missiles that could strike mainland China and to stock up on other munitions it would need to sustain a conflict alongside the large U.S. force it hosts. “The international security situation has undergone vast changes and we are seeing the return of unilateralism, protectionism, and a Cold War mentality,” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong said at the start of the meeting in Tokyo with Japanese Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Shigeo Yamada. Click here to read... [26]

US Navy laments China’s shipbuilding supremacy

The US is seemingly at a loss to match China’s ascendant naval shipbuilding capacity as US Navy leaders engage in a blame game rather than addressing past failures and mismanagement. CNN reported this month that US Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro said the US cannot match China in terms of fleet numbers, an admission that could have significant implications for the Pacific region’s power balance. At the National Press Club in Washington, DC, Del Toro said that China now has a larger fleet and is deploying it globally, making it imperative for the US to upgrade its fleet in response. According to the Pentagon’s November 2022 China Military Power report, China’s People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) is the world’s largest navy with 340 ships as of 2022. The US Navy, in comparison, had just 280 ships. Del Toro said that China has 13 naval shipyards, with one of these facilities having more capacity than all seven US naval shipyards combined. He also highlighted problems in finding skilled labor for US naval shipbuilding programs. A December 2022 US Congressional Research Service report states that budget cuts and other issues have resulted in layoffs of shipyard workers whose specialized skills cannot easily and readily be replaced. Click here to read... [27]

Egypt foreign minister visits Syria for first time since 2011

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry has visited Damascus in what is the first trip by a top Egyptian envoy to Syria since its civil war began in 2011 and another sign of possible warming ties between President Bashar al-Assad and Arab states. According to the Syrian state news agency (SANA), Shoukry was received at Damascus airport by his Syrian counterpart Faisal Mekdad on Feb 27. Al-Assad has benefitted from an outpouring of Arab support for Syria since February 6 earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people there and in neighbouring Turkey. Earlier this month, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi spoke with al-Assad by phone for the first time on February 7. On Feb 26, a delegation of Arab parliamentary leaders, including Egypt parliament’s Speaker Hanafy al-Gebali, met al-Assad in Damascus. Earlier, following the earthquake, the foreign minister of Jordan, which once backed the Syrian opposition, also visited Damascus for the first time since the civil war began. Syria was largely isolated from the rest of the Arab world following al-Assad’s deadly crackdown against protests that erupted against his rule in 2011. The Arab League suspended Syria’s membership the same year, and many Arab countries pulled their envoys out of Damascus. The United Arab Emirates, which began normalising ties with al-Assad several years ago, has poured aid into Syria since the earthquake. Saudi Arabia also sent planes carrying aid to Syria, a first in more than a decade. Click here to read... [28]

UN body seeks new global consensus on safeguarding human rights

United Nations (UN) human rights chief Volker Turk on Feb 27 deplored the weaponization of human rights in the context of geopolitical shifts. Turk, who took office as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights last October, was speaking at the opening of the 52nd regular session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. He called for a "new world-wide consensus on human rights", arguing that it is a question of survival that nations and communities should arrive at a common understanding. "Our institutions -- which exist to advance all civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights, on an equal footing, as well as the right to development and the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment -- are in a unique position to rebuild this shared respect for each other's dignity," he said. He urged all the UN member states to overcome their differences through solidarity and genuine dialogue, working across geopolitical divides with a clear vision to advance the needs of every country and the rights of all. "We can rise above the fray, and use human rights, not as a weapon in the context of geopolitical shifts -- not as a nice-to-have for sunny days in the future -- but as what it is and was always meant to be: a solution to help us get out of the harms that are destroying our world," he said. Click here to read... [29]

Rishi Sunak strikes post-Brexit Northern Ireland deal with EU

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struck a deal with the European Union on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland on Feb 27, saying it would pave the way for a new chapter in London's relationship with the bloc. Standing alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a news conference in Windsor, Sunak said the two sides had agreed to remove "any sense of a border" between Britain and its province - a situation that had angered politicians on both sides. He immediately won plaudits from business groups who welcomed the easing of trade rules, and an EU promise that it would be willing to allow British scientists to join its vast research program if Sunak's party accepts the deal. The agreement marks a high-risk strategy for Sunak just four months after he took office. He is looking to secure improved relations with Brussels ― and the United States ― without angering the wing of his party most wedded to Brexit. The deal seeks to resolve the tensions caused by the Northern Ireland protocol, a complex agreement which set the trading rules for the British-ruled region that London agreed before it left the EU but now says are unworkable. Click here to read... [30]

Nigeria Election Criticized by International Observers, Opposition Parties

Early results from Nigeria’s presidential election showed a sizable lead for the ruling party’s Bola Tinubu on Feb 27, as international observers said serious logistical problems, violence and the slow publishing of polling-station results had marred the vote in Africa’s largest economy and most-populous nation. By early Feb 27 evening, results sheets from just over one-third of Nigeria’s 176,846 polling stations had been loaded onto the website of the country’s electoral commission following Feb 25’s vote. The commission, which had previously vaunted the immediate publication of those results as a key step toward improving election transparency, said the delays were due to technical glitches and didn’t affect the integrity of the vote. Parallel counts by civil-society organizations based on results uploaded so far showed Mr. Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress with a substantial lead over Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, Nigeria’s other established party. Peter Obi of the smaller Labour Party, who had gained a following among young Nigerians frustrated with the country’s perpetual crises and who had been a front-runner in many pre-election polls, was in third place. Nigeria’s current president, Muhammadu Buhari, couldn’t run again after serving two terms. Click here to read... [31]

Health

WHO raises alarm over bird flu

The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued a warning amid a recent uptick in cases of avian flu (H5N1) in Cambodia. Authorities in the Southeast Asian country recently reported that two individuals had contracted the disease, with one eventually succumbing to it. Speaking to reporters during a virtual briefing on Feb 24, Dr Sylvie Briand, the WHO’s director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention, described the latest trends in the spread of the virus as “worrying.” She also said the organization was reviewing its global risk assessment. “WHO takes the risk from this virus seriously and urges heightened vigilance from all countries,” the official noted. According to Briand, apart from a growing number of cases in birds, a similar situation is being witnessed in mammals, including humans. On Feb 23, Cambodian authorities reported that an 11-year-old girl had died of bird flu, with her father also testing positive. Their contacts are currently being checked. Commenting on the case, Briand pointed out that it is not yet clear whether there had actually been any human-to-human transmission or if the two individuals had contracted the virus simply due to their “exposure to the same environmental conditions,” that is, close contact with infected birds or other animals. Click here to read... [32]

Turkey earthquake: more than 350,000 pregnant women in dire need of help as rescue work winds down

On Feb 20, rescue work wound down after the February 6 earthquakes killed more than 46,000 people in southern Turkey and northwest Syria. Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) said that nearly 13,000 excavators, cranes, trucks and other industrial vehicles had been sent to the quake zone. The death toll in Turkey had risen to 41,156, AFAD said, and it was expected to climb, with some 385,000 flats in the country known to have been destroyed or seriously damaged and many people still missing. Among the survivors of the February 6 earthquakes in Turkey and Syria are about 356,000 pregnant women who urgently need access to reproductive health services, the UN sexual and reproductive health agency (UNFPA) said at the weekend. The women include 226,000 in Turkey and 130,000 in Syria, about 38,800 of whom will deliver in the next month. It said many of the women are sheltering in camps or are living exposed to freezing temperatures and struggling to get food or clean water. Medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) said a convoy of 14 of its trucks had entered northwestern Syria on Feb 19 to assist in earthquake rescue operations, as concerns grow over lack of access to the war-ravaged area. Click here to read... [33]