Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 21 November - 29 November, 2022

Economic

Global Long-Term LNG Contracts Are Sold Out Until 2026

The global long-term LNG contracts before 2026 are sold out, top importer Japan says, amid heated competition for the fuel as Europe seeks to replace Russian pipeline gas supply. The estimate of sold-out LNG deals emerged from a survey of Japanese companies conducted by the local trade ministry and cited by Bloomberg. High spot LNG prices have priced out many Asian buyers this year as Europe has been bidding for supply and has become the primary destination of spot LNG supply out of the United States. At the same time, market volatility and uncertainties, and concerns about energy security, have prompted a growing number of buyers to seek long-term contracts. The race for LNG supply could give rise to a second wave of U.S. LNG projects, but new supply will take time to develop, Kateryna Filippenko, Principal Analyst, Global Gas Supply, at Wood Mackenzie, said earlier this year. But much of this new LNG supply, including from projects that have taken final investment decisions (FIDs) in previous years, is likely to come only after 2026. Until around 2026, “Europe will have to compete with Asia for the marginal LNG molecule to satisfy demand – just as it is right now,” Filippenko noted. “Competition between Europe and Asia for limited LNG will be intense until a new supply wave arrives after 2026. Prices will inevitably remain elevated until then.” Click here to read... [2]

Russia now fourth largest forex reserve holder

Russia has risen to fourth place among the world’s largest economies in terms of foreign exchange reserves, RIA Novosti calculations published on Nov 26 show. In the first nine months of the year, Russia’s holdings, including those frozen by the West due to Ukraine-related sanctions, rose to $540 billion, Central Bank data shows. This allowed Russia to displace India, which had occupied fourth place since last summer. India’s holdings as of the end of September amounted to $532 billion. The two countries have been competing with each other on this indicator since 2015. China retained its perennial leadership in terms of international reserves, with a staggering $3.193 trillion in assets at the end of September this year. Second place was held by Japan with $1.238 trillion, and Switzerland came in third with $892 billion in assets. According to the report, an interesting trend was seen in the lower half of the top ten, in which emerging economies outpaced their developed-market counterparts. Hong Kong was displaced by Saudi Arabia as the sixth largest holder, Brazil moved up to ninth place, pushing Singapore down to tenth. South Korea dropped to number seven. Germany and the US retained the 11th and 12th spots from last year respectively, with France moving up to 13th, followed by Italy. Mexico moved up three spots to number 15. Thailand, the UK, Israel, Poland, and the Czech Republic rounded out the top 20. Click here to read... [3]

Putin sets priorities for Russian defence industry

Russian defence giant Rostec plays a key role in ensuring the country's “technological sovereignty,” but needs to take advantage of real combat experience in countering Western weapons in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said on Nov 25. Rostec has been responsible for the development, production, and export of high-tech products, not only for the military but for civilian use as well, Putin noted at a reception celebrating the conglomerate’s 15th anniversary. “The experience that we have gained in the course of conducting the special operation [in Ukraine] and countering modern Western models of military equipment is very good and needs to be used to improve the quality, reliability, and combat characteristics of some types of our domestically produced weapons,” the president explained. Putin said the “number one” task right now is to do everything to fully deliver on the needs of the military, in particular “every company and platoon deployed in the special military operation.” Heightened military production should also provide an impetus for related civilian industries, he said, while internal competition between development bureaus should pave the way to making the best models of equipment that has already shown its value in combat. The 2007 decision to establish a “powerful industrial flagship” turned out to be fully justified, Putin said. Rostec currently consists of some 700 subsidiaries, which employ over 450,000 people. Click here to read... [4]

US eases Venezuela oil embargo

The US Treasury Department has granted a license to multinational energy corporation Chevron to export Venezuelan oil to the US, citing a breakthrough in talks between the opposition and the government in Caracas, which Washington still refuses to recognize. According to the Treasury’s statement on Nov 26, Chevron Corporation was authorized to “resume limited natural resource extraction operations,” as long as Venezuela’s government does not receive “any profits from the oil sales by Chevron.” Under the policy, the extracted oil can only be exported to the US and the profits can only be directed to repaying the debts owed to Chevron, which has joint ventures with state-run oil company Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA). The newly-granted license specifically prohibits the “payment of any taxes or royalties to the Government of Venezuela,” or payment of “any dividends, including a dividend in kind” to any entity owned or controlled by PDVSA. “Other Venezuela-related sanctions and restrictions imposed by the United States remain in place,” the statement added, emphasizing that the move does not indicate any change to the longstanding US policy towards Venezuela. It remains unclear how much oil Chevron will be allowed to extract and export to the US under these conditions, and if the move will have any impact on global oil prices. Click here to read... [5]

Fearing Sabotage, Europe Patrols Pipelines With Mine Hunters and Unmanned Subs

The Italian navy mine hunter ITS Numana was sailing recently above a pipeline carrying natural gas from North Africa to Europe when its sonar detected a metal object close to the line. “There was an obvious risk,” said Lt. Gianluigi Barberisi, the vessel’s commander. So the ship lowered a robot 650 feet below to take a closer look. It was a rusty table. Until recently, the Italian navy didn’t spend much time inspecting underwater pipelines. That changed on Sept. 26, when explosions ripped through the Nord Stream natural-gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea in an apparent act of sabotage. Since then, protecting the pipelines, energy grids and natural-gas terminals that keep Europe’s lights on and homes heated has become a national-security priority across the continent. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Moscow gradually throttled gas exports to Europe, exposing the perils of depending on Russian oil and gas. The blasts at the Nord Stream pipelines, which carried gas from Russia to Germany, revealed another European weakness: the vulnerability of its infrastructure to physical attacks.While no European government has named a suspect in the blasts, some European officials said they assume that Russia was responsible. Russia has denied having anything to do with explosions. Protecting Europe’s energy infrastructure is a gargantuan task. There are more than 6,000 miles of gas pipelines that cross Norwegian waters and the Mediterranean Sea, and more than 1,000 offshore oil-and-gas installations in European waters. Click here to read... [6]

China petrochemicals sector likely to miss 2030 peak carbon target, but all is not lost, report says

China’s petrochemical sector may reach peak carbon emissions only by 2035 – five years later than the national target – a Peking University report has found. However, a low emissions push could help the sector achieve peak carbon as early as 2025, and produce only half of the carbon emissions compared to the baseline scenario by 2060, the report said. Petrochemicals are used in millions of everyday products, from plastics, detergents, rubbers and fertilisers, to packaging, clothing and insulating materials. The sector is a key economic pillar and accounts for about 4 per cent of China’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, unlike other high energy-consuming sectors such as steel and cement where emissions are expected to fall in the coming years, those for petrochemicals are likely to increase over the next two decades due to rising demand. The sector, therefore, plays a key role in China’s energy transition drive. However, while China’s goal is peak carbon by 2030, current emission trends as well as related policy indicate petrochemicals will achieve this only in 2035, according to a report by the Institute of Energy at Peking University. This is the baseline scenario, the report released last week said. China has not set a peak carbon timetable for the sector. But a joint plan issued by three central government agencies in August required carbon-intensive industries – which includes petrochemicals – to reach peak emissions by 2030. Click here to read... [7]

As South Korea aims to surpass China in military exports, will sales competition with US rise?

The US$17 billion worth of South Korean arms sales this year has already more than doubled the full-year record set last year, and insiders expect industry growth to continue against the backdrop of the Ukraine war and regional tensions.But while Seoul’s goal for the country to eventually become one of the world’s top four arms exporters could see it surpass China – which currently holds the fourth position – analysts say that competition between them in the sector is unlikely, because their target markets fundamentally differ. The main impetus behind the rapid growth in Korean arms sales, which totalled US$7.5 billion in 2021, was Poland – Ukraine’s neighbour – which made more than US$10 billion worth of purchases in the first 10 months of this year. Those figures dwarf the annual average of US$2 billion to US$3 billion that South Korea made from arms sales from 2011-20. “Korea was able to grab an opportunity when it arose, as Poland had an urgent need to procure armaments after the Ukrainian war. Not only are there only a few countries that can produce armaments on such short notice, but also – for those advanced countries in Europe that have such capabilities – their priorities lie in protecting their own countries,” said Kim Mi-jung, a defence industry researcher at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade. Click here to read... [8]

China to push for stability of manufacturing sector

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), along with two other ministries, jointly issued a notice on Nov 21, aiming to consolidate industrial production, to be bolstered with a spate of new supportive measures. The notice, in line with measures unveiled on the heels of the tone-setting 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), shows that Chinese policymakers are seizing the "window of opportunity" to maintain the world's second-largest economy to grow within a reasonable range this year, observers said. The notice meted out 17 measures to shore up development of major industries, varied enterprises and different regions in China. The boost will be broad-based with a particular focus on manufacturing, which indicates the policymakers want to consolidate the upward growing trend of the economy, and plan more stimulus measures to create new growth points, Cong Yi, dean of the School of Marxism at Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Nov 21. And, to stabilize exports, the notice vows to solidify the whole foreign trade chain, and guide localities to establish a service guarantee system for leading foreign trade enterprises and help them to solve problems in a timely manner. The circular also called for more support to shore up transportation of new-energy vehicles and electric batteries through the China-Europe Railway Express. Click here to read... [9]

Pakistan winter gas crunch threatens to chill economy, stoke unrest

Pakistan is hurtling toward a harsh winter, with citizens and industries bracing for a severe shortage of natural gas as dwindling forex reserves and sanctions on Russia and Iran limit its options. The problem threatens to stoke further unrest in a country already rocked by political turmoil. On Nov 20, protesters blocked the Quetta-Karachi highway near Mastung, in the south-western province of Balochistan, over the suspension of gas supplies. Last week, demonstrators also blocked main roads inside Quetta, as the cold season begins to set in. Concerns about winter energy are hardly confined to the South Asian nation. As the raging war in Ukraine upsets markets and supply chains, governments from Japan and South Korea to Europe are wary of tight supplies in the months ahead. Neighbouring Bangladesh is also suffering from energy woes as it grapples with its own economic troubles. Still, Pakistan's position appears especially precarious given the other pressures buffeting the country, compounded by creaky infrastructure that is leaking gas the nation cannot afford to waste. Taimur Fahad Khan, research associate with the Center for Strategic Perspectives at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, said the gas crisis is another bombshell for the Pakistani public and economy. He said the gas shortage "will exacerbate the energy insecurity in the country and result in further destabilization of Pakistan, which is already facing economic turmoil and suffering from political instability." Click here to read... [10]

U.S. bans sale of Huawei, ZTE gear, citing national security risk

The Biden administration has banned approvals of new telecommunications equipment from China's Huawei Technologies and ZTE because they pose "an unacceptable risk" to U.S. national security. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission said on Nov 25 it had adopted the final rules, which also bar the sale or import of equipment made by China's surveillance equipment maker Dahua Technology, video surveillance company Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology and telecoms company Hytera Communications. The move represents Washington's latest crackdown on the Chinese tech giants amid fears that Beijing could use Chinese tech companies to spy on Americans. "These new rules are an important part of our ongoing actions to protect the American people from national security threats involving telecommunications," FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel said in a statement. Huawei declined to comment. ZTE, Dahua, Hikvision and Hytera did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Rosenworcel circulated the proposed measure, which effectively bars the companies from selling new equipment in the United States, to the other three commissioners for final approval last month. The FCC said in June 2021 it was considering banning all equipment authorizations for all companies on the covered list. That came after a March 2021 designation of five Chinese companies on the so-called "covered list" as posing a threat to national security under a 2019 law aimed at protecting U.S. communications networks: Huawei, ZTE, Hytera Communications Corp Hikvision and Dahua. Click here to read... [11]

China widens market share in EVs, dozen other high-tech fields

Chinese companies have captured more global market share in 13 high-technology products and services, from electric vehicles to smartphones, Nikkei research shows, underscoring China's outsized presence in global supply chains. Out of 28 high-tech categories reviewed by Nikkei, China widened its share in 13 in 2021. Chinese companies lost market share in six categories and did not make the top five in the remaining nine. The Biden administration's recent toughening of export controls on advanced semiconductors shows the high level of tensions between the U.S. and China in technologies seen as crucial to national and economic security. The risk of a Taiwan crisis in the near future has added to the sense of urgency on securing Asian supply chains. But the Nikkei research shows realigning them is no easy task. In the EV supply chain, Chinese battery leader Contemporary Amperex Technology, known as CATL, is the world's top battery supplier, holding a 38.6% share last year. Its position has grown by more than 12 points since 2020. When combined with peer BYD, the two companies held a combined share of 46%. BYD rose to become the fourth-largest EV manufacturer last year, climbing past the Renault, Nissan Motor and Mitsubishi Motors alliance. BYD has harnessed the strength of making batteries in-house to keep down its EV prices. Click here to read... [12]

Globalized Supply Chain Brings More-Turbulent Food Prices

For decades, globalization has increased the variety and reduced the cost of food. Now the pandemic, war in Ukraine and other global disruptions have shown how that complex supply chain can also result in more turbulent prices. Food-price inflation hit multi-decade highs this year in the U.S. and elsewhere, outpacing overall consumer prices. While food inflation has cooled in recent weeks, food prices globally are still 25% higher than before Covid-19 struck in early 2020, according to the United Nations Food Price Index. Among the factors pushing up prices, food-industry executives and economists say, have been manufacturing and transport disruptions stemming from the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy and grain prices. While those issues may recede, and some suppliers say they will try to source from closer to home, analysts expect price swings to be more frequent. The way markets typically function is that when demand rises, prices rise, and that motivates producers to increase supply. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why the age-old economics equation about supply and demand isn’t working right now. Illustration: David Fang Food and drink, like many manufactured goods from cars to iPhones, often include components from around the world. Click here to read... [13]

Global economic growth to slow to 2.2 pct in 2023: OECD

Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slide from 3.1 percent this year to 2.2 percent in 2023, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in its latest Economic Outlook on Nov 22. The 2022 figure is around half the pace recorded in 2021 during the rebound from the pandemic, and the growth rate projected for 2023 is well below that foreseen prior to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict."Asia will be the main engine of growth in 2023 and 2024, whereas Europe, North America and South America will see very low growth," it said.The major emerging markets in Asia are projected by the OECD to account for close to three-quarters of global GDP growth in 2023, while the economies in the United States and Europe are expected to slow down. "Held back by high energy and food prices, weak confidence, continuing supply bottlenecks and the initial impact of tighter monetary policy, annual growth in the euro area in 2023 is projected to be 0.5 percent," the organization said. The United States economy would only grow by 0.5 percent in 2023, compared with 1.8 percent in 2022. The energy markets remain among the significant downside risks. Click here to read... [14]

Strategic

Anti-Covid lockdown protests flare across China after deadly Urumqi fire

Protests against China’s relentless pandemic controls broke out in Shanghai and other big cities as well as university campuses over the weekend, in a major test for the leadership of strongman Xi Jinping and his zero-Covid policy. Open defiance is rare in China, especially directed at the central government and the ruling Communist Party. The unusual display of frustration and public anger in many parts of the country came a month after Xi secured a rule-breaking third term at the party’s national congress, making him China’s most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping. The protests were largely sparked by a deadly residential fire in Urumqi, capital of the Xinjiang region, on Nov 24, which killed 10 and injured nine. The tragedy prompted widespread fury on the internet as many believed Covid restrictions prevented the victims from fleeing, claims that local officials rejected. The next day, hundreds of angry residents took to Urumqi’s streets demanding an end to the lockdown that has barred 4 million residents from leaving their homes for 100 days. Authorities in Xinjiang announced on Nov 26 that coronavirus restrictions would be lifted “in phases” but the assurances failed to stop protests spreading to the country’s most affluent cities and among young students, underlining the growing public impatience and grievances nearly three years into the pandemic. Click here to read... [15]

Taiwan elections: DPP’s Tsai resigns as party chief after KMT wins big

Taiwan’s Kuomintang swept to a landslide victory in Nov 26’s local elections, results that observers said would aid the main opposition party in the presidential poll due in a little more than a year. President Tsai Ing-wen, who is also the head of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, resigned with immediate effect as the DPP chief to take responsibility for the electoral setback. “We humbly accept the election results … and admit that we failed to move the voters and work hard to meet the expectations of the public,” Tsai said, who will continue to serve as Taiwan’s president. “On behalf of the DPP, I thank those who support and encourage us … and resign immediately as chair of the party,” she said as she led party officials to offer a bow to supporters. Results showed the KMT took four of the six key municipalities – Taipei, New Taipei City, and Taoyuan in the north and Taichung in central Taiwan. The KMT had set its sights on both Taipei and Taoyuan, saying wins there would be major victories. The DPP has retained control of only two municipalities: its traditional strongholds of Tainan and Kaohsiung. The new mayor of the capital will be Wayne Chiang Wan-an, a descendant of Chiang Kai-shek, presenting a setback for Tsai in the final two years of her second term. Click here to read... [16]

Red line over Taiwan question reiterated in talks between Chinese, US defence chiefs

The defence chiefs of China and the US met face to face for the first time in Cambodia on Nov 22 since US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's provocative visit to Taiwan Island in early August, which was responded with large-scale military exercises around the island by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA). Chinese State Councillor and Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe drew the red line of the Taiwan question to US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin once again after Chinese President Xi Jinping had done so to US President Joe Biden at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, last week. Aside from urging the US to honour the commitments made by Biden so that the China-US relations can resume healthy, stable development, the talks released a positive signal that would hopefully lower the risk of an unpredictable military confrontation and put the two countries' worsening military relations back on track, analysts said. Wei, who is attending the ninth ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus in Cambodia, held talks with Austin here on Nov 22 at the latter's request. The talks were a practical measure to implement the important consensus reached during the meeting of the two countries' top leaders, and were of very important significance to promote China-US military ties to return to the right track of healthy, stable development, said Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, a spokesperson at China's Ministry of National Defense, at a press briefing in Cambodia after Wei and Austin's talks. Click here to read... [17]

Analysis: Xi no longer described as 'people's leader' in China

One month after the Chinese Communist Party's 20th national congress, Chinese state media have stopped calling President Xi Jinping "the people's leader." None of the newly published material on Chinese government websites contain the phrase.It is a surprising development, considering that the phrase was repeatedly used in the lead up to, and during, the national congress. A senior official at the Central Policy Research Office, a party organ, called Xi "people's leader" at a news conference. Chinese media used the term every day during the gathering. Even a song titled "people's leader" was sung. A source hinted that there has been an implicit agreement to refrain from promoting the phrase from here on. When this development is taken into account, the recently concluded week of diplomacy in Indonesia and Thailand perhaps takes on a new meaning. After all, in China, diplomacy is but an extension of domestic politics. The term "leader" or "lingxiu" was used by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, now a member of the powerful Politburo, when he wrapped up the achievements of the trip. "The international community once again appreciates the outstanding demeanour and world-mindedness of President Xi Jinping as the leader of a major party and a major country, and has witnessed a remarkable, faithful, loved and respected China," he said. Wang's use of Xi being the "leader of a major country" is a far cry from "the people's leader," which is reminiscent of founding father Mao Zedong. Click here to read... [18]

Canada unveils new Indo-Pacific strategy, with eye on ‘disruptive’ China

Canada launched its long-awaited Indo-Pacific strategy on Nov 27, outlining C$2.3 billion (US$1.7 billion) in spending to boost military and cybersecurity in the region and vowed to deal with a “disruptive” China while working with it on climate change and trade issues. The plan detailed in a 26-page document said Canada will tighten foreign investment rules to protect intellectual property and prevent Chinese state-owned enterprises from snapping up critical mineral supplies. Canada is seeking to deepen ties with a fast-growing Indo-Pacific region of 40 countries accounting for almost C$50 trillion in economic activity. But the focus is on China, which is mentioned more than 50 times, at a moment when bilateral ties are frosty. Four cabinet ministers at a news conference in Vancouver took turns detailing the new plan, saying the strategy was crucial for Canada’s national security and climate as well as its economic goals. “We will engage in diplomacy because we think diplomacy is a strength, at the same time we’ll be firm and that’s why we have now a very transparent plan to engage with China,” Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said. Click here to read... [19]

Japan eyes 10-year horizon for defence procurement

Japanese policymakers will consider extending the country's defence procurement plan to 10 years from five to better increase readiness for such threats as a Taiwan crisis. Japan is updating three documents next month that govern defence policy: the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Program Guidelines and the Medium Term Defense Program. The first two cover a period of around 10 years. The Medium Term Defense Program lays out procurement and spending in five-year increments, based on security challenges identified in the National Defense Program Guidelines. Aligning the time spans of all three documents would lead to greater consistency in policy, proponents say. Improving transparency to the public in defence planning is important for gaining understanding, a government expert panel said in recommendations to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Tuesday. Kishida has vowed to "fundamentally reinforce Japan's defence capabilities within the next five years," making higher defense spending a political issue.The 10-year period covered by the next procurement plan holds an increased risk of conflict, analysts say. The U.S. National Security Strategy, published in October, warned the next decade will be "decisive" in countering challenges posed by China and Russia. Many in Washington predict a crisis in the Taiwan Strait within the next 10 years. Click here to read... [20]

Expert proposes integrated development around Himalayas to tackle regional risks at 1st Conference on World Geography

A Chinese expert proposed a new solution of integrated development via strengthening border trade exchanges and cross-border coordination in the region of the Himalayas to tackle the multi-dimensional geopolitical security risks and further promote building a regional community of shared future, at a key conference in Shanghai. The proposal was made at the First Conference on World Geography, with the theme of "Geography and Our Common Future," which was held during the weekend in Shanghai. Although fraught with geopolitical risks, the Himalayas region has a long history of interpersonal exchanges involving religion, ethnic groups and military. Chen Fahu, academician from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and president of the Geographical Society of China, proposed at the conference to promote integrated development around the Himalayas by strengthening border trade exchanges and cross-border coordination. In his keynote lecture entitled "Geo-security Issues Around the Himalayas," Chen linked the significance of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau where the Himalayas is situated with national security. According to Chen, the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau plays an important role in safeguarding China's national security, a reserve base of strategic resources, a barrier for water safety and ecological security, as well as an important cultural area for China. Click here to read... [21]

Iraq condemns Iranian attacks on Iraq's Kurdistan region

Iraq on Nov 21 strongly condemned Iran's cross-border bombardments on Iranian Kurdish opposition parties' positions in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq. "The repeated attacks carried out by Iranian and Turkish forces with missiles and drones on the Kurdistan region are a violation of Iraq's sovereignty and an act that contravenes international covenants and laws that regulate relations between countries," the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. The lands of Iraq "are not a base or a corridor to harm any of the neighbouring countries," the ministry statement reaffirmed the Iraqi government's stance. "Iraq is also not an arena for conflicts and settling scores for external parties," the statement added. Earlier in the day, a Kurdish security source told Xinhua that one person was killed and at least seven others wounded when Iranian forces used ballistic missiles and drones to attack the opposition militants' bases in Sulaymaniyah Province and Erbil Province in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. A statement by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) condemned "in the strongest terms" the Iranian attacks on the Kurdish region. "Iran's repeated violations of the sovereignty of Iraq and its Kurdistan region are inexcusable and a serious infringement of international law and neighbourly relations," the KRG statement said. Click here to read... [22]

Iraq says Saudi-Iranian talks transfer from security to diplomatic track

The Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Nov 23 that the negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have moved from the security to the diplomatic track and the talks previously held in Iraq will continue. The ministry's spokesman Ahmed al-Sahaf told the official Iraqi News Agency (INA) that it's important to resolve differing points of view and outstanding issues between the two sides in a way that meets "the interests of each party and interests at the regional level." "We are coordinating between the two sides for the possibility of achieving other rounds of dialogue," the spokesman was quoted by INA as saying. Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran in early 2016 in protest against the attacks on Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran following the Saudi execution of a Shiite cleric. Previously, Baghdad hosted five rounds of direct talks that aimed at normalizing relations between the two regional powers. Click here to read... [23]

Turkey pushes high-level normalization with Egypt

Turkey wants to proceed with the normalization process with Egypt through high-level talks, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Nov 21, a day after his first meeting with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi in Qatar. "A step has been taken here to start such a process, and we have had talks," Erdogan told reporters on his homebound flight from Qatar, according to semi official Anadolu Agency. "We want to move a process that started with our ministers to a good point later, hopefully with high-level meetings," he said. The Turkish president revealed that a message he had conveyed to Sisi was that Turkey cherished the past "unity" between the two peoples and would love to "start it again." Erdogan noted that what Ankara expects from Cairo was to "establish peace together against those who take a stand against" Turkey and Egypt in the Mediterranean. Erdogan and Sisi shook hands during their brief encounter in Qatar's capital Doha on the sidelines of the World Cup opening ceremony on Nov 20, shows a photo attached to an Egyptian presidency statement released on Nov 21. "The two sides underscored the profound historical bonds the two countries and their peoples share, As agreed, the encounter would mark the beginning of developing bilateral relations," a presidential spokesperson was quoted by the statement as saying. Click here to read... [24]

Türkiye calls on U.S. to "cease support" for YPG

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar on Nov 22 urged other countries, particularly the United States, to cease any support for the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria. "We tell all our interlocutors, especially the U.S., that the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) equals the YPG. We insistently demand the cessation of all support to the terrorists," Akar told the Turkish parliament. Ties between the two NATO allies have long been strained due to U.S. military support to the YPG, which cooperated with Washington in operations against the Islamic State. Akar emphasized that Türkiye's recent aerial operations into northern Syria and northern Iraq were in line with international law, respected sovereign rights and territorial integrity of its neighbouring countries, and targeted only the "terrorists." Türkiye carried out an aerial operation on Nov 20 against the YPG in northern Syria and the PKK in northern Iraq. The "Operation Claw-Sword" was "the largest, most comprehensive and most effective aerial operation" of Türkiye, the minister said. The aerial strikes were launched after a bomb explosion in a busy street of Türkiye's largest city Istanbul on Nov. 13, in which at least six people were killed and another 81 injured. Click here to read... [25]

Pakistan nominates next army chief as incumbent blasts Imran Khan

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Nov 24 nominated Lt. Gen. Syed Asim Munir as the next chief of army staff, shortly after the outgoing top general delivered a dramatic speech in which he took a parting jab at ousted leader Imran Khan. Munir is the most senior general among the top six who were considered for promotion to what many consider the most powerful post in the land. According to protocol, Sharif will send his recommendation to President Arif Alvi, who would issue the official notification of the appointment. The selection, if it goes through, would end months of speculation about the impending retirement of the incumbent army chief, Gen. Qamar JavedBajwa, and the candidates to succeed him. The infantryman Munir brings a background in military intelligence as well as experience serving in Saudi Arabia, and is famous for being able to recite virtually the entire Quran. Munir is set to take charge after Bajwa's scheduled retirement Nov 29. The announcement of his selection came the day after Bajwa gave a farewell address at the army's General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, in which he rejected former Prime Minister Khan's unsubstantiated accusations that his government was brought down in April by a U.S.-backed conspiracy, with army involvement. Click here to read... [26]

Heaviest Fighting in Years Breaks Out in Congo as Rivals Seek Control of Minerals

Long-simmering ethnic tensions in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo—fed at times by its neighbours—have erupted into the most intense clashes in a decade as warring militias fight for control of the region and its mineral riches. In recent days, the M23 rebel group has advanced to within 12 miles of the city of Goma, pushing United Nations-backed Congolese government forces from several surrounding towns. More than two million people are suffering shortages of food and fuel as a result of the fighting. The M23 group, estimated to have 2,000 men under arms and backed by neighbouring Rwanda and Uganda, is seeking greater influence in a country that is home to the world’s largest deposits of tantalum, used in smartphones and personal computers. The advance raises the prospect that M23 and its foreign allies could dominate a region that also produces tin, gold and coltan, and exacerbate a humanitarian situation in a country that already hosts more displaced people than any other in Africa. M23 says it is fighting to defend Congolese Tutsis, Rwanda’s dominant ethnic group, against ethnic Hutu militias. Its rise has helped transform Rwanda, which produces little tantalum, into the world’s second-largest exporter of the rare blue-grey metal, because it controls informal supply chains that funnel the Congolese-mined mineral across the border, researchers and U.N. investigators say. Click here to read... [27]

Israeli Far-Right Leader Ben-Gvir to Take Important Security Role in New Government

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party signed a coalition deal with Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party that gives the latter control of the police ministry and a seat in the security cabinet. Mr. Netanyahu was tasked with forming Israel’s next government after his right-wing and religious bloc won 64 seats in the 120-member Parliament in elections this month. Nov 25’s agreement doesn’t account for a full new government but marks a step toward that end, and the potential establishment of Israel’s most right-wing administration. “We took a big step tonight toward a full coalition agreement, toward forming a fully, fully right-wing government,” Mr. Ben-Gvir said in a statement issued by Likud and his far-right faction, Jewish Power. Mr. Netanyahu remains in negotiations with other parties. The appointment of Mr. Ben-Gvir, who was convicted in 2007 of incitement to racism and belonging to a terrorist organization, as minister of Israel’s internal security could strain relations with Western allies and exacerbate tensions with Palestinians. Two explosions near bus stops in Jerusalem early Nov 23 killed at least one person and injured 26 others, the first bombing in the city since 2016. Violence this year helped propel Mr. Ben-Gvir into office. Click here to read... [28]

U.S. VP Harris visits Philippine island on edge of contested South China Sea

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on Nov 22 visits the Philippine island of Palawan in the South China Sea, part of a three-day trip to an Asian ally that is central to America’s bid to counter China’s increasingly assertive stance in the region. Beijing claims almost all the South China Sea, which is believed to contain massive oil and gas deposits and through which billions of dollars in trade passes each year. Harris pledged on Nov 21 the United States would defend the Philippines if it came under attack in the waterway, reaffirming Washington’s “unwavering” commitment to its former colony. Her comments followed a meeting with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who welcomed Harris for the first time at the Philippine presidential palace. Marcos said the two nations’ strong ties had become even more important, given what he called “upheavals” in the region. Harris’ visit to the Philippines, the highest-level trip to the Philippines by a Biden administration official, is seen as part of Washington’s effort to revive ties with Manila, which moved closer to China under former President Rodrigo Duterte. “We stand with you in defence of international rules and norms as it relates to the South China Sea,” Harris told Marcos. Click here to read... [29]

Putin expresses regret over Donbass

The Donbass republics should probably have rejoined Russia sooner, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the mothers of troops involved in the military operation in Ukraine on Nov 25. In such a case, fewer lives might have been lost, the president stressed. “There might not have been so many casualties among civilians, there would not be so many children killed,” the Russian leader suggested. He maintained, however, that back in 2014, Russia did not have a full understanding of the situation in Donbass or of the true sentiments of the locals. “[We] believed that we might still be able to reach an agreement and … reunify Donetsk and Lugansk with Ukraine within … the Minsk Agreements,” Putin noted, adding that Russia was “genuinely working towards that.” Commenting on the matter further, the president blamed the 2014 coup in Kiev for the subsequent crisis in Donbass and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. “If not for the coup d’état in Ukraine in 2014, none [of this] would have happened,” he said. Brokered by Germany and France, the Minsk Agreements were first signed in 2014 in the wake of the ousting of then-President Viktor Yanukovich, which plunged Ukraine into a conflict between the post-coup government in Kiev and the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Having subsequently become the respective people's republics, the territories declared their independence from Ukraine the same year. Click here to read... [30]

Russian MOD reveals details of latest strikes against Ukraine

Moscow undermined Ukraine’s ability to move weapons and soldiers to the frontline by conducting long-range, high-precision strikes on Nov 23 against command centers and energy infrastructure, the Russian Defense Ministry has said. “The goal of the strikes has been accomplished. All designated targets have been hit,” Defense Ministry spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov told reporters during his daily briefing. He added that the actions of his country’s aircraft, warships and ground troops had “disrupted the deployment of Ukrainian reinforcements, foreign weapons, military hardware and munitions to the combat areas by rail.” Konashenkov insisted that Russian troops did not target Kiev. “All of the destruction reported by the Kiev authorities was caused by the falling missiles that were [fired] from foreign-made and Ukrainian air defence systems stationed in the residential areas of the Ukrainian capital,” he said. The statement came after Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky accused Russia of having deliberately killed civilians. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected this claim on Nov 24, maintaining that Moscow only hits military-related targets. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Chinese cities break from COVID easing edict as cases smash record

Cities across China are ignoring a government edict to ease COVID-19 restrictions as they struggle to contain a surge in infections, which smashed a daily case record Nov 24. Beijing this month announced it would relax a controversial zero-COVID strategy, but the rapid spread of highly infectious variants is putting local governments between a rock and a hard place as they scramble to balance those top-down orders against their own efforts to bring down cases while keeping their economies afloat. "So far ... the central government's attempt to minimize economic disruption and improve COVID containment has achieved neither goal, with outbreaks getting more widespread and more cities having to deploy restrictions to get them under control," Ernan Cui, an analyst at Beijing-based research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, said in a report. The challenges were highlighted on Nov 24 as China recorded 31,444 daily infections, surging past a previous pandemic peak set in April when the financial capital, Shanghai, was plunged into a gruelling two-month lockdown. The National Health Commission's latest playbook called on local governments to avoid full lockdowns -- previously a centrepiece of China's efforts to contain the virus -- and also make it easier for residents to travel across provinces. But local authorities are not following suit as they battle spiking case rates -- ramping up COVID control costs that are stretching their budgets. Click here to read... [32]

Avian flu outbreak wipes out 50.54 mln U.S. birds, a record

Avian flu has wiped out 50.54 million birds in the United States this year, making it the country's deadliest outbreak in history, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed on Nov 24. The deaths of chickens, turkeys and other birds represent the worst U.S. animal-health disaster to date, topping the previous record of 50.5 million birds that died in an avian-flu outbreak in 2015. Birds often die after becoming infected. Entire flocks, which can top a million birds at egg-laying chicken farms, are also culled to control the spread of the disease after a bird tests positive. Losses of poultry flocks sent prices for eggs and turkey meat to record highs, worsening economic pain for consumers facing red-hot inflation and making Nov 24's Thanksgiving celebrations more expensive in the United States. Europe and Britain are also suffering their worst avian-flu crises, and some British supermarkets rationed customers' egg purchases after the outbreak disrupted supplies. The U.S. outbreak, which began in February, infected flocks of poultry and non-poultry birds across 46 states, USDA data show. Wild birds like ducks transmit the virus, known as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), through their faeces, feathers or direct contact with poultry. "Wild birds continue to spread HPAI throughout the country as they migrate, so preventing contact between domestic flocks and wild birds is critical to protecting U.S. poultry," said Rosemary Sifford, the USDA's chief veterinary officer. Click here to read... [33]