Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 16 May 2022 - 22 May 2022

Economic

China has 33 ways to get economy back on track, but critics say ‘adjusting zero-Covid strategy is key’

China has unveiled a new round of stimulus measures to stabilise the nation’s faltering economy and support businesses, but analysts say the actual impact may be limited if the nation’s stringent zero-Covid policy remains unchanged. A 33-point package of policy items will help “get the economy back on a normal track” while keeping major economic indicators within an appropriate range”, the official state press agency, Xinhua, reported following May 23’s regular meeting of the State Council, China’s cabinet. The announcement by the State Council, chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, came as many analysts have warned that Beijing will be hard-pressed to achieve its economic growth target of “around 5.5 per cent” for the year while sticking with strict coronavirus-control measures. Extended lockdowns across the country have taken a heavy toll on livelihoods and consumption, putting many people out of work, shuttering businesses and suppressing both supply and demand. “Power generation, freight volume and bank loans have all declined since April. Without a certain level of GDP growth, stable employment cannot be realised,” Li warned. “One good thing is that we refrained from excessive money supply and mass stimulus in the past few years, and we still have policy tools in reserve.” Click here to read... [2]

China’s push to loosen US dollar dominance takes on new urgency after Western sanctions on Russia

Western sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and spillover from US interest rate hikes have fuelled discussion in China about how to reduce reliance on the dollar system and establish the yuan as a strong, internationally-traded reserve currency.Calls for China to create a more independent financial regime come amid patchy relations with the West, following the onset of the US-China trade war in 2018, the coronavirus outbreak and tensions over geopolitical issues ranging from Hong Kong to Taiwan. With concerns growing in China about exposure to the US dollar system, some government advisers are urging authorities to overhaul the exchange rate regime and turn the yuan into an anchor currency, especially for the Asia region. “Yuan issuance is currently anchored to the US dollar to a certain extent … It is by no means a long-term solution from the perspective of China’s future international status and development needs,” Huang Qifan, former mayor of Chongqing municipality in southwest China, told the Tsinghua PBCSF Chief Economist Forum a week ago. The yuan should be tied to China’s gross domestic product and sovereign credit, Huang said. “An independent currency anchor would give China’s government bond yield curve and monetary policy, as well as the pricing of domestic financial assets, a benchmark,” he said. Click here to read... [3]

Ukraine-Russia War Is Fuelling Triple Crisis in Poor Nations

Crises in food, fuel and finance caused or worsened by the war in Ukraine threaten to stoke unrest in poorer countries and push dozens of them into default, global business and humanitarian leaders warned this week at the annual gathering of the World Economic Forum. “We are struggling to respond in a way that is commensurate with the scale of the crisis,” said Achim Steiner, administrator of the United Nations Development Program. “For many developing economies, there simply is no money left in the kitty.” The three interrelated crises—caused or worsened by the war in Ukraine—have come into focus during this week’s meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, making it one of the gloomier annual gatherings in its more than 50 years. High inflation and interest rates could push more than 70 countries into default, according to Mr. Steiner. They would follow Sri Lanka, which recently became the first Asian country to default on its debt this century amid protests that turned violent and led to the collapse of the government. Supplies of wheat and other foodstuffs are blocked in Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, creating shortages and sending prices higher in nations such as Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer. Energy supply chains face dislocations, too, as Russian oil is increasingly shunned in global oil markets. Click here to read... [4]

Kremlin lays blame for looming food crisis

Sanctions imposed on Moscow are the real cause of a looming global food crisis, not Russia’s actions, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on May 23. He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ opinion that there was a risk of global hunger. “That is true. But when it comes to grain, the president said that the imposed sanctions and restrictions led to the collapse that we are now witnessing,” Peskov revealed. In Guterres’ view, Russia’s offensive in the neighbouring country has added to the problems already affecting the situation on the food market, namely climate change and the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. Guterres asked Moscow to stop blocking the export of food from Ukrainian ports but at the same time made it clear that fertilizers and food products from Russia should be allowed to reach the world markets without obstacles. Peskov noted that both Russia and Ukraine have always been reliable grain exporters and that Moscow in no way prevents Kiev from exporting grain to Poland by rail. He also emphasized that as the Poles send trains with weapons to Kiev, “No one prevents them from exporting grain back on the same trains.” In regard to maritime transportation, the Kremlin spokesman accused the Ukrainian forces of planting naval mines in the Black Sea. Click here to read... [5]

Farming stocks flourish as Ukraine war hits food supply

As the war in Ukraine has stirred unease about global food supplies, money is flooding into agriculture stocks, lifting prices even as the broader market flirts with bear territory. While the broad MSCI World Index has fallen about 5% since its close on Feb. 23, the day before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a narrower index focusing on agriculture names gained 6% over the same period, rallying from a 1% decline to start the year. The conflict between two major food exporters has focused attention on a problem that may outlast the fighting, an inability of food supply to keep up with global population growth. Companies directly involved in food production -- such as suppliers of fertilizer, seeds and agricultural equipment -- have performed especially well. Canada-based Nutrien, the world's largest fertilizer maker, has jumped more than 30% since the invasion. The company reported a more than tenfold surge in net earnings on the year last quarter to a record $1.39 billion. Shares in Japan's Sakata Seed, which upgraded its earnings forecast last month for the fiscal year ending May 31, have climbed 27% since Feb. 23, and matched their July 2018 peak, the highest point in 18 years, early this month. Corteva, an American producer of seeds, fertilizer and herbicides, and leading farm equipment manufacturer Deere have seen substantial gains. Click here to read... [6]

China eyes cheap Russian energy - media

Beijing is in discussions with Moscow to buy additional oil supplies, Bloomberg reported this week, citing people with knowledge of the plan. China is seeking to replenish its storage tanks with discounted Russian crude before prices rise again, they said. According to the sources, who asked not to be named, details on volumes or terms of a potential deal haven’t been decided yet, and there’s no guarantee an agreement will be struck. “There is still room to replenish stocks and it would be a good opportunity for them to do so, if they can be sourced on commercially attractive terms,” Jane Xie, a senior oil analyst at data and analytics firm Kpler, told the outlet. Kpler estimates China’s overall stockpiles at 926.1 million barrels, up from 869 million barrels in mid-March, but still 6% lower than the record in September 2020. Traders told Bloomberg earlier that China’s oil refiners have been discreetly buying cheap Russian crude. They said that Russian crude sellers have offered Chinese buyers the flexibility to pay in yuan. Some Western countries, such as the US and UK, have recently vowed to abandon Russian oil imports as part of their economic sanctions. The EU is also discussing this move. Meanwhile, Asian buyers, particularly India and China, have seized the opportunity to replenish their reserves with heavily discounted Russian oil. Click here to read... [7]

Saudi Arabia Still Sees Russia As An Integral Part Of OPEC+

Saudi Arabia has signalled its support for Russia as a continued member of the OPEC+ oil cartel, which comes amid ongoing Western pressure to sanction and isolate Moscow over the Ukraine invasion. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told the Financial Times in an interview published on May 22 that he sees Russia as an integral part of the OPEC+ group of oil producers, adding that politics should be kept out of the alliance. He said Saudi Arabia hopes “to work an agreement with OPEC+ … which includes Russia,” referring to a new crude production deal. Oil pumping quotas under the current OPEC+ agreement struck in 2020 are set to expire in several months. While the United States banned oil imports from Russia in March, member states of the European Union remain divided on phasing out Russian crude imports. OPEC and its allies are unwinding record output cuts put in place during the worst of the pandemic in 2020, although they have rebuffed Western pressure to raise output at a faster pace as energy consumers’ grapple with the highest oil prices in years. Oil prices surged above $130 per barrel in March over concerns of disrupted supplies from Russia, although they have since eased. Brent crude futures rose by 22 cents to $112.77 a barrel by mid-afternoon on May 23, while the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude fell 49 cents to $109.79. Click here to read... [8]

Indo-Pacific framework to begin with 13 nations, including India

The U.S. government has announced that its new economic grouping for the Indo-Pacific will begin with 13 inaugural members, accounting for about 40% of the world's gross domestic product. The 13 initial members of the group, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), are the U.S., Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, New Zealand and Brunei, the Biden administration said May 23. Taiwan was not included, nor were Myanmar or the China-friendly members of ASEAN, Cambodia and Laos. Eleven of the 13 countries in the IPEF -- all but India and the U.S. -- are part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world's largest trade bloc which accounts for 30% of the world's GDP. China also belongs to RCEP. Seven of the 13 countries -- Japan, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand -- belong to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which the U.S. withdrew from in 2017 when it was known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Speaking at the launch event in Tokyo, President Joe Biden said that the future of the 21st Century economy will be written in the Indo-Pacific. "We're writing the new rules," he said. Click here to read... [9]

Top US trade official meets with Taiwanese minister to explore deepening ties

The top US trade negotiator met with a Taiwanese official in Bangkok on May 20 to discuss ways to strengthen Washington’s economic relationship with Taipei. It was the latest signal just this week of the ever-closer ties between the US and the self-ruled island, and it came as US President Joe Biden was travelling to South Korea and Japan – a trip that observers say is meant to bring the US and its allies closer together in the increasingly tense competition with Beijing. During his trip, Biden is expected to unveil a new US-led economic organisation in Asia called the Indo-Pacific Economic Forum (IPEF), and his administration has faced intense bipartisan pressure from Congress to include Taiwan in the group. Both parties in Washington have urged the administration to offer more support to Taiwan on the economic front and also strengthen its ability to defend itself from a possible invasion from mainland China. Beijing views the island as a rogue province, and has not ruled out the use of force to take it under its control. In their meeting on May 20, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Taiwanese Minister-Without-Portfolio John Deng discussed Taiwan’s participation in multilateral economic institutions like the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum and the World Trade Organization, Tai’s office said, as well as growing economic ties between Washington and Taipei. Click here to read... [10]

EU to bankroll Ukraine’s budget

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on May 18 proposed an aid package of €9 billion ($9.5 billion) to keep Ukraine’s government running, and added that the EU would lead reconstruction efforts in Ukraine after hostilities cease. Her announcement came a day after the US called on Europe to open its coffers for Kiev. Money for the aid package would be borrowed by the Commission in global financial markets and would be repayable by Kiev. As per the EU’s rules on macro-financial assistance, the Ukrainian government would be free to use the cash as it sees fit.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that Ukraine needs around $7 billion per month to pay its soldiers, civilians and pensioners, and to keep essential services running. The proposed EU package will therefore keep Ukraine functioning for just over a month. Hours before von der Leyen’s announcement, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the Brussels Economic Forum that “the bilateral and multilateral support announced so far will not be sufficient to address Ukraine’s needs, even in the short term.” “I sincerely ask all our partners to join us in increasing their financial support to Ukraine,” she continued, adding that aside from keeping the country afloat in the short term, “massive support” would be needed to rebuild Ukraine once the fighting endsClick here to read... [11]

Sri Lanka needs to print one trillion rupees to keep economy afloat, inflation could hit 40 per cent, PM says

Sri Lanka’s new Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said on May 17 he will present an interim budget within six weeks, slashing infrastructure projects to divert funds into a two-year relief programme for the crisis-hit island nation. Wickremesinghe, who took office two weeks ago, warned inflation would rise as the government gets down to tackling the crisis, and there could be more protests. He said he hoped any unrest would not get out of hand, adding that funds would be made available to help the most vulnerable of the country’s 22 million people. As Sri Lanka falls into default, what’s next for the Rajapaksa family? “Looking at the hard days ahead, there has to be protest. It’s natural when people suffer, they must protest,” Wickremesinghe said in an interview at the colonial-era Prime Minister’s office in the commercial capital Colombo. “But we want to ensure that it does not destabilise the political system. “With the interim budget, it is just about cutting down expenditure, cutting to the bone where possible and transferring it to welfare.” The country located off India’s southern tip is reeling from its worst economic crisis since independence in 1948, as a shortage of foreign currency severely curtailed imports of essentials including fuel and medicine, triggering months of unprecedented protests. Click here to read... [12]

Rising Risk of Recession Creates New Headache for Biden

The Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow inflation are raising the possibility of higher unemployment, a slower-growing economy and a recession, prospects that could create new headaches for the Biden administration. As the country heads into midterm-election season, much of the political discussion has centered around solid economic growth and robust employment versus the damaging impact of inflation. More recently, warnings about the prospect of an economic downturn—which could come in 2023 according to some estimates—have complicated the economic picture in a new way. Mr. Biden and his advisers are already grappling with inflation trending near a four-decade high, wavering consumer confidence and headwinds posed by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Republicans lay blame for surging prices on the administration, saying it stoked inflation with pandemic-related stimulus then failed to counter it as prices rose. They have lambasted Mr. Biden and Democratic lawmakers ahead of this fall’s midterm elections that will decide which party controls Congress. Mr. Biden and his economic team have maintained the economy is well-positioned to withstand challenges, pointing to factors such as a strong labour market and unemployment trending near a 50-year low. They are deploying a strategy seeking to improve Americans’ view of the economy, which could bolster confidence and help underpin consumer spending. Click here to read... [13]

US keeping ‘eye on the ball’ on China tariffs, removal must be ‘strategic’, trade chief says

The US must be “strategic” when it comes to a decision on whether to remove China tariffs, Trade Representative Katherine Tai said a day after President Joe Biden mentioned he would review Trump-era levies as consumer prices surge. “With respect to the tariffs, our approach as with everything in this relationship, is to be strategic,” Tai said on May 24 in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Shery Ahn and Haidi Lun. “We have to keep our eye on the ball in terms of how to effectively realign the US-China trade and economic relationship.” Tai would not say whether the administration would remove the tariffs, or give a time frame for making a decision. “All options are on the table in terms of how we address our short-term economic needs, but our eye must be on the ball with respect to the medium and long term needs for the United States to realign this economic and trade relationship,” she said. Biden on May 23 said he is considering removing some of the tariffs and would talk with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about it after returning to the United States from Asia. The Biden administration earlier this month also took the first step toward a review of tariffs on more than US$300 billion in Chinese imports. Click here to read... [14]

Korea-led int'l association on hydrogen industry kicks off

Korea, the United States and 16 other countries launched an association May 18 meant to boost cooperation in the development of the hydrogen industry, Seoul's industry ministry said. The member countries of the Global Hydrogen Industrial Association Alliance shared the current status of their hydrogen industry and related policy measures at an inaugural meeting at a Seoul hotel. The Korea-led alliance will set up a network and data hub in the hydrogen field to boost cooperation in terms of deregulation, policy steps, and technology development, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy. The participating countries included China, Britain, Germany and Singapore. Korea's Second Vice Industry Minister Park Il-jun vowed to set up large-scale hydrogen production bases, and delivery and storage facilities at home and abroad as part of efforts to develop the ecosystem from its production to distribution and utilization. The move comes as Korea is pushing to boost the supply of power from clean and renewable energy sources while weaning the country off nuclear and coal-fired power plants. Hydrogen is an environmentally friendly alternative to fossil fuels as automobiles running on the resource only create water in the process of generating power. It can be produced as a by-product of industrial facilities, including petrochemical plants. Korea was chosen as the first chair country of its secretariat, and the office was set up in Seoul. Click here to read... [15]

US flight brings urgent baby formula shipment from Germany

A US military plane bringing the first shipment of infant formula from Germany to help address a critical shortage in the United States landed in Indianapolis on May 22. The cargo plane took off from the US air base at Ramstein, Germany, carrying more than 70,000 pounds (35,380 kilograms) of powdered formula, the White House said. It is the first of several flights authorized by US President Joe Biden expected this weekend under Operation Fly Formula that will help to relieve the deepening shortage. Military planes have been deployed to transport the initial batch of formula because no commercial flights were available. The initial shipment will cover about 15% of the immediate need, presidential economics adviser Brian Deese told CNN. "This is an important step, but it is by no means the only step that must take place. We will continue to work as the president has instructed us to look for every opportunity to increase supply," said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, who greeted the plane on its arrival. Altogether, about 1.5 million 8-ounce (237 ml) bottles of three different branded formulas are expected to arrive this week. The largest formula-making plant in the US, in the state of Michigan, was shut down in February amid concerns that contamination may have led to the deaths of two infants. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

China-US relations: as world watches Ukraine, navy missions in the Pacific quietly raise tension

Tensions have quietly increased in the Western Pacific as China ventures into the waters while the world’s attention is on the Ukraine crisis. China sent its Liaoning aircraft carrier and seven escort ships for training through the Miyako Strait in early May, where the People’s Liberation Army Navy carried out battle exercises and staged more than 100 fighter take-off and landing operations near the Okinawa Islands. In addition to warship movements, busy military operations were observed in the air.A US Boeing RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft was seen operating on a mission over the Philippine Sea on May 16. The South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) said on its official Twitter account on May 23 that the aircraft was “probably targeting at PLAN Liaoning carrier formation” and included a flight path image. Ridzwan Rahmat, principal defence analyst at Janes, said the recent military movements in the region sent out different messages. “China has been honing its ability to operate carrier groups in the Western Pacific, and has increasingly deployed its newer and larger warships to accompany its carriers in the region,” Rahmat said. “The involvement of relatively newer surface combatants in the mission is an indication that China is keen to impart lessons, operating procedures and doctrines it has gathered.” Click here to read... [17]

Biden shifts focus back to Indo-Pacific with first trip to region

U.S. President Joe Biden arrived in South Korea late May 20 afternoon, kicking off a five-day trip to South Korea and Japan. Air Force One touched down at the U.S. military's Osan Air Base, around 75 km south of the Demilitarized Zone, at 5:22 pm local time. This is Biden's first trip to Asia since becoming president. He has also been to Europe three times. Though the president's time and energy have been drained by Ukraine, and earlier Afghanistan, the trip is meant to put his administration's focus back on the Indo-Pacific, especially China, which the president repeatedly says is the top priority. The itinerary reflects this. Biden's first destination is Samsung Electronics' semiconductor plant in Pyeongtaek, south of Seoul, where the South Korean tech giant is producing memory and foundry chips. Supply chain resiliency, especially over crucial technology such as semiconductors, is a key element of his Build Back Better framework. The U.S. wants to build a supply chain with its allies, as opposed to one intertwined with China, so as to avoid shortages in a crisis. Samsung Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong will introduce the world's biggest semiconductor factory to Biden and his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk-yeol, who will accompany him. Click here to read... [18]

Biden says he would use force to defend Taiwan

U.S. President Joe Biden signalled May 23 that the U.S. would use its military to defend Taiwan if China were to attempt to take the island by force. In a joint news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida after their meeting in Tokyo, the president was asked if he was willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan, despite not taking such a position in Ukraine. "Yes," Biden replied, adding that "it's a commitment we made." The president said that the U.S. policy toward Taiwan is unchanged and that the administration adheres to the "One China policy" that acknowledges there is but one "China." "But the idea that it can be taken by force is just not appropriate. It will dislocate the entire region," Biden added. He also said China does not have the "jurisdiction to go in and use force to take over Taiwan." The White House quickly issued a statement saying that the policy on Taiwan has not changed. China too was quick to express its strong dissatisfaction. "China has no room for compromise or concessions on issues involving China's core interests such as sovereignty and territorial integrity," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said. Meanwhile, officials in Taipei welcomed Biden's words. Click here to read... [19]

Russian and Chinese military planes conduct joint flyover

Russia and China conducted joint air patrols in the Asia-Pacific region on May 17, the Russian Defense Ministry has revealed, as Japan and South Korea expressed concerns regarding the flights. The Russian ministry said in a statement that Russian Tu-95 strategic missile carriers and Chinese Xian H-6 strategic bombers participated in air patrols held over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. The bombers were escorted by Su-30SM fighter jets. “The duration of the flight of Russian strategic missile carriers was about 13 hours,” the ministry said. It also confirmed that “at certain stages of the route, the strategic missile carriers were escorted by F-2 aircraft of the South Korean Air Force and F-15 of the Japanese Air Force.” However, the ministry emphasized that both Chinese and Russian aircraft “acted strictly in accordance with the provisions of international law” and did not violate the airspace of other countries. “The event was held as part of the implementation of the military cooperation plan for 2022 provisions, and is not directed against third countries,” the Russian Defense Ministry said. The air patrols coincided with a meeting between leaders of the US, India, Australia, and Japan at the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) summit in Tokyo. Click here to read... [20]

North Korea fires 3 missiles after Quad rebuke

Three ballistic missiles took off from North Korea, the South Korean military reported on May 25 morning local time. The launches came after the US, Japan, India, and Australia – the Quad countries – condemned North Korea’s missile program and pledged themselves to “a free and open Indo-Pacific that is inclusive and resilient.” The first missile was fired towards the waters near North Korea’s eastern coast, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement around 6am local time, offering no additional details. The Japanese coast guard confirmed there had been a launch of an unidentified type of missile.Within an hour, however, Seoul was reporting “additional launches of unknown ballistic missiles in north and east directions,” according to Yonhap News Agency. A total of three missiles were launched between 6:00 and 6:42am from the Sunan area of Pyongyang, the South Korean military later said. Pyongyang’s 17th missile test this year came after US President Joe Biden left Japan to return to Washington after a five-day trip to Asia. Before departing, Biden and his Quad colleagues issued a joint statement about their role in the future of the region dubbed by the US the ‘Indo-Pacific’. Click here to read... [21]

U.N. rights head Bachelet starts landmark tour of China's Xinjiang

The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet on May 23 kicked off a landmark visit to China's controversial Xinjiang region, as rights groups warn that anything but unfettered access could damage her office's credibility. The six-day tour comes after years of negotiations with the Chinese government to let Bachelet visit the western region where rights organizations say at least 1 million people have been imprisoned in internment camps, facing torture and forced labour. Media reports and activists have also said that the region's Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities are subject to arbitrary detention and forced sterilization, allegations that the U.S. and several Western countries have described as amounting to genocide. Beijing denies the claims outright and says the camps are used as vocational training facilities to combat religious extremism in the Muslim-majority region. Bachelet was to deliver a speech to university students in the southern city of Guangzhou before leaving for Xinjiang with planned stops in the cities of Kashgar and Urumqi. The visit would include discussions "on a range of domestic, regional and global human rights issues," Bachelet's office said this week. Critics fear the government will not meet Bachelet's demand for full access and instead will put her on a heavily structured tour, limiting her movements and putting her team under strict surveillance. Click here to read... [22]

Asian countries have good ties with US, China and other major powers, don’t need NATO-equivalent, Singapore’s PM Lee says

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has said it is in Asia’s interest to avoid forming a security bloc like Europe’s NATO, noting the region’s history and circumstances make such a military alliance unnecessary. Lee’s remarks in an interview with Nikkei Asia published on May 23 come amid calls from US President Joe Biden for Washington’s partners in the region to shore up cooperation amid escalating rivalry against the world’s “autocracies”. That rhetoric has largely been described by observers as aimed at getting countries aligned with the US and the West to cooperate and gird themselves against China and Russia. Asked by Nikkei’s Editor Tetsuya Iguchi if Asia needed a “collective security equivalent” to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), Lee pointed out that Asia’s circumstances were not the same as Europe’s. The region did not have Europe’s history, where Western countries were split from Soviet Union-backing “Warsaw Pact” nations during the Cold War. “In Asia, the history is different. There was never a grouping in Asia which was the equivalent of NATO,” Lee said. “And countries in Asia, many of them enjoy good ties with China, as well as with the US and the US’ treaty allies,” he said, naming US treaty allies Japan, South Korea and Australia. Click here to read... [23]

Taiwan indicates US won’t dictate defence plans after business groups warn Washington is restricting arms sales

Taiwan has said it makes its own decisions about arms purchases and indicated it will not allow the US to dictate its plans to counter the growing military threat from mainland China. The island’s defence ministry made the comments after US business groups criticised Washington’s policy on arms sales to the island, arguing that it was too restrictive and could not effectively deter an attack by the People’s Liberation Army. In a statement released on May 18 responding to the claims, Taiwan’s defence ministry said its arms purchases were chiefly based on the island’s needs. “The military makes its own plans in acquiring various types of weapons and platforms based on the threats of the enemy and our joint operation planning,” it said. “Only when we are not able to develop and produce or form the combat force we need swiftly will we purchase them from abroad, and no individual weapons dealer can influence our plans.” On May 17 a public letter by the US-Taiwan Business Council and the American Chamber of Commerce said the council had been told by US deputy assistant secretary of state Mira Resnick and her colleagues that the White House would no longer support arms sales for Taiwan outside their definition of “asymmetric” defence. Click here to read... [24]

Tokyo protests to China over new drilling rig in East China Sea

The government lodged a protest with the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo after discovering that China had unilaterally started construction of a suspected drilling rig to develop gas fields in disputed waters in the East China Sea. A bilateral agreement was reached in 2008 to jointly develop gas fields in the area, but talks on crucial aspects of the joint development, such as the boundary of the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf, remain stalled. The Foreign Ministry said it confirmed that Beijing is building a structure for drilling on its side near the median line of the two countries. “It is extremely regrettable that China is pursuing the development unilaterally and Japan cannot accept it,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said during a visit to Kyoto on May 21. He said Japan has strongly urged China to swiftly resume talks on joint development of the natural gas resources. Officials said 16 drilling rigs already stand close to the de facto maritime border with Japan. Commenting on other issues, Kishida expressed hopes that his summit talks with U.S. President Joe Biden on May 23 will result in a candid exchange of opinions over a string of shared challenges, such as security and the war in Ukraine. He also said the two leaders will reaffirm to work closely to achieve a free and open Indo-Pacific region. Click here to read... [25]

China calls for BRICS expansion

China wants to expand the group of emerging economies known as BRICS, a senior Chinese diplomat said on May 19. The economic bloc currently consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. “China proposes to start the BRICS expansion process, explore the criteria and procedures for the expansion, and gradually form a consensus,” Wang Yi, China's state councillor and foreign minister, told an online meeting of BRICS foreign ministers, as quoted by Reuters. In an address ahead of the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged to strengthen cooperation. Xi had previously invited the Argentinian government to participate in the BRICS summit. Argentina has been striving to join the group for more than a decade. In February, during an official visit to China, Argentinian President Alberto Fernandez reiterated the request. Brazil, Russia, India, and China initially established the bloc in 2009, with South Africa joining in 2010. BRICS has more than a 16% share in global trade and represents more than 40% of the world’s population. Click here to read... [26]

Taliban enforces face-cover order for female TV anchors

Afghanistan's Taliban rulers on May 22 began enforcing an order requiring all female TV news anchors in the country to cover their faces while on-air. The move is part of a hard-line shift drawing condemnation from rights activists. After the order was announced May 19, only a handful of news outlets complied. But on May 22, most female anchors were seen with their faces covered after the Taliban's Vice and Virtue Ministry began enforcing the decree. The Information and Culture Ministry previously announced that the policy was "final and non-negotiable." "It is just an outside culture imposed on us forcing us to wear a mask and that can create a problem for us while presenting our programs," said Sonia Niazi, a TV anchor with TOLO news. In an act of solidarity with female colleagues, the channel's male personnel covered their faces with masks, including the main evening newsreader. During the Taliban's last time in power in Afghanistan from 1996-2001, they imposed overwhelming restrictions on women, requiring them to wear the all-encompassing burqa and barring them from public life and education. Earlier this month, the Taliban ordered all women in public to wear head-to-toe clothing that leaves only their eyes visible. The Taliban leadership has also barred girls from attending school after the sixth grade, reversing previous promises by Taliban officials that girls of all ages would be allowed an education. Click here to read... [27]

US has multi-billion dollar Arctic military plans – media

The US plans to invest billions on Arctic defence including modernizing its Thule Air Base in Greenland, Danish newspaper Berlingske reported on May 23, citing an American military report. Neither Denmark nor Greenland have been informed of the plans, it claimed. According to the outlet, the Washington has given the green light to “significant investments” into its northernmost outpost amid, what it called, “increasingly aggressive” behaviour from Russia. Citing a statement from the US Air Force, Berlingske wrote that the money would go to upgrading aging infrastructure at Thule. No further details on the matter have been provided and the American embassy in Copenhagen reportedly declined to elaborate. The plans, Berlingske claimed, came as a surprise to the Danish parliament and the Greenlandic government, as the US is supposed to “consult and inform” both regarding any significant changes to its military operations in Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark. “This is our country, so we want to know when something is happening,” PipalukLynge Rasmussen, a chairman of the foreign and security committee in the Greenlandic parliament was quoted as saying. The news comes shortly after the US Navy and Marine Corps announced that they would be conducting more operations in the Arctic. Click here to read... [28]

Analysis: Erdogan's vow to expand Syria operations raises stakes in Turkey-NATO row

President Tayyip Erdogan's pledge to launch military operations soon to expand safe zones already set up across Turkey's southern borders has raised the stakes in his row with NATO partners over Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. Analysts said Erdogan's surprise announcement on May 23 reflected his belief that the West would not oppose such operations at a time when it needs Ankara's support for the Nordic countries' bid to join NATO. Turkey accuses Sweden and Finland of harbouring people linked to the outlawed militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). All 30 NATO countries must agree the Nordic states' application to join. The United States said on May 23 it was confident that Sweden and Finland could overcome Turkey's concerns. Analysts said Erdogan's announcement was also aimed at bolstering Turkish nationalist support for his two-decade rule as he gears up for difficult elections next year. Cross-border military operations have boosted his poll ratings in the past. Turkey has conducted three incursions into northern Syria since 2016, seizing hundreds of kilometres of land and pushing some 30 km (20 miles) deep into the country, in operations targeting mainly the U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish YPG militia. It has also stepped up military operations against PKK militants in northern Iraq in recent years. Click here to read... [29]

Turkey FM visit to Israel a sign relations are warming

Mevlut Cavusoglu’s trip to Israel this week will make him the first Turkish foreign minister to visit the country in 15 years – the latest step in a rapprochement between the countries after years of stormy ties. Cavusoglu, who is expected to be accompanied by energy minister Fatih Donmez, is scheduled to meet his counterpart Yair Lapid on May 18, a day after holding talks with Palestinian officials. Energy sector cooperation is expected to top the agenda, with Ankara expressing its willingness for a partnership between Israel and Turkey in a project that could carry Israeli natural gas to Turkey, and then potentially on to Europe. But a wider issue is also expected to be discussed – the re-establishment of diplomatic ties at the ambassador level, after Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador in 2018, following the Israeli killing of almost 60 Palestinians in protests against the opening of a United States embassy to Israel in Jerusalem. That was the culmination of a continuing period of poor relations, which had been difficult since the late 2000s. The two countries traded frequent accusations over Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories and treatment of Palestinians, as well as Ankara’s support for Hamas, which governs the blockaded Gaza Strip. Click here to read... [30]

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett Avoids Government Collapse

An Israeli lawmaker who quit the government this past week decided to rejoin the ruling, yet shaky, coalition helping Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to stay in power and avoid new elections for the time being. The sudden resignation on May 19 of Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi, an Arab lawmaker from the left-wing Meretz party, brought Mr. Bennett’s coalition down to 59 seats out of 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. With Ms. Rinawie Zoabi’s return, Mr. Bennett’s coalition now counts 60 seats, split evenly with the opposition. The opposition needs 61 lawmakers to vote to dissolve the parliament and send Israel to its fifth election in a little over three years.Ms. Rinawie Zoabi, in a letter to Mr. Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid on May 19, said she was resigning from the coalition because it was adopting too many right-wing positions and shunning its left-wing partners. After meeting with Mr. Lapid on May 22, Ms. Rinawie Zoabi said she would rejoin the coalition following intense pressure from Arab municipal officials worried about an alternative government that would likely include hard-right figures. Mr. Bennett’s government came to power in June last year after a mix of left-wing, centrist and right-wing parties, including for the first time an independent Arab party, united in their opposition to former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Click here to read... [31]

Medical

Three lessons from countries that performed best in tackling Covid-19 challenges

Among Covid-19’s most important governance lessons, we have learned that trying to battle a pandemic without long-term investment in public health systems and responsive leadership is like attempting to put out a forest fire with a garden hosepipe. When the pandemic hit, governments had to rapidly implement test and trace systems, deliver personal protective equipment to frontline workers, and make sure that vaccines were developed and put into the arms of the population. They had to manage the effects of lockdowns and closures on people’s livelihoods, relationships and well-being. They also had to battle misinformation and create new platforms for community outreach. The first is long-term investment in public health systems. The second key trait for success is the presence of mission-driven leadership. Even in the absence of strong public health infrastructure, dynamic, “whole of government” capabilities can help countries mitigate worst-case outcomes. The third key trait required to effectively manage – and recover from – a pandemic is sufficient fiscal space. For many poorer countries, the pandemic added a new layer to the fiscal challenges of the climate crisis, spiralling debt burdens, faltering foreign aid, and more recently, inflation. Click here to read... [32]

WHO convenes emergency meeting over rare disease outbreak – media

The latest spread of the monkey-pox virus has prompted The World Health Organization (WHO) to convene an emergency meeting, Britain’s Telegraph newspaper reported on May 20. The disease, which is typically confined to forested areas of western and central Africa, has been spreading rapidly in a number of European countries, as well as the US and Australia since early May. According to the report, high on the meeting’s agenda are the mechanisms behind the virus’ transmission and possible vaccination strategies. Dr Mike Ryan, Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, is reportedly attending the discussion. The newspaper claims that the WHO is looking at whether smallpox vaccines could be used effectively to tackle the spread of monkey-pox. Meanwhile, the UK government has already ordered additional stocks of the smallpox vaccine, which is being administered to people who may have been exposed to monkey-pox, the Telegraph reported. On top of the 5,000 doses the British authorities have on hand at present, an order has been placed for 20,000 more shots, according to the report. On May 20, Germany confirmed its first case of monkey-pox, and so did France, bringing the number of countries dealing with the virus outside of African regions in which it is endemic to eleven including Australia, Belgium, Canada, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the US. Click here to read... [33]

North Korea turns to China for help as COVID cases explode

After more than two years of insisting it was COVID-free, North Korea is now battling a massive surge of infections and is reaching out for help to its closest ally and main economic benefactor: China. Last week, North Korean media said the country was fighting its "first-ever" COVID outbreak after the omicron variant was detected on May 8 in Pyongyang. At a Politburo meeting the same day, leader Kim Jong Un wore a mask in public for the first time, and ordered all cities and counties across the nation to "thoroughly lock down" their regions. The isolated country reported 269,510 more people with fever symptoms on May 18, bringing the total to nearly 1.5 million, according to state media KCNA. The death toll, in a nation where few are vaccinated and the health system is rudimentary, grew to 56. The Rodong Sinmun, the Workers' Party mouthpiece, on May 14 reported that the spread of the virus was "not uncontrollable" but that it had increased "within locked areas and relevant units."The paper also said it would be helpful for North Korea to "actively learn from the advanced and rich anti-epidemic successes and experience already gained by the Chinese party and people. "The virus has recently spread in Chinese towns bordering North Korea, prompting a re-suspension of overland trade between the two countries last month. But China is pledging support to its neighbour. Click here to read... [34]