Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 25 April 2022 - 01 May 2022

Economic

World lost forest area greater than size of UK in 2021: Report

In 2021, the world lost an area of forest greater than the size of the United Kingdom, according to a report by Global Forest Watch – a trajectory that is set to fall short of global commitments made by world leaders at the United Nation’s COP26 climate summit in Scotland last year. About 253,000 square kilometres (97,600 square miles) of forest were lost during 2021, the report added. The figure amounts to about 10 football pitches per minute. The rate is about the same as in 2020, which saw a sharp increase from 2019, according to the report, which uses forest data collected by the University of Maryland. The loss was largely caused by human destruction, notably land clearing for cattle and crops. More than 40 percent of that loss occurred in Brazil, where some 1.5 million hectares (3.7 million acres) were destroyed. The Democratic Republic of the Congo saw the second highest destruction of tropical primary rainforest, with 500,000 hectares (1.2 million acres) lost in 2021. Bolivia, meanwhile, lost nearly 300,000 hectares (740,000 acres). In colder regions, boreal forests found in the far northern countries reaches of Canada, Russia and Alaska lost more than 80,000 square kilometres (31,000 square miles) of area last year, the highest level since records began in 2001, according to the report. Click here to read... [2]

US economy unexpectedly falls 1.4% annual pace in Q1, may continue poor performance amid inflation, rate hike woes

In the first three months of 2022, the US posted its poorest quarterly economic performance since the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, as the headwinds from soaring inflation, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the pullback from Omicron weighing on growth momentum. US GDP declined at an annualized 1.4 percent in the first quarter, the Commerce Department's preliminary estimate showed on April 28, which is a significant slowdown from the 6.9 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. The slowdown reflected a record US international trade deficit, lower government expenditure, and a decline in inventory levels as more enterprises take a wait-and-see approach before stepping up inventory volumes, experts said. The first quarter result was below economists' and institutions' forecasts. Economists polled by Reuters expected growth to slow to an annualized rate of 1.1 percent over the first three months. Goldman Sachs lowered its estimate to a 1.3 percent rate from a 1.5 percent pace, while JPMorgan slashed its forecast to a 0.7 percent pace from 1.1 percent. Consumption, which accounts for two-thirds of the US economic output, has not seen signs of consumer pulling back from goods even as food and gasoline prices soar. Click here to read... [3]

Investors in the dark on China industrial transport as data curbs bite

A wave of COVID-19 lockdowns in Shanghai presents the biggest test yet for investors, trading companies and logistics managers trying to follow China’s economy after the government restricted firms from releasing real-time data. As China’s most populous city struggles to emerge from weeks of crippling coronavirus curbs, companies can no longer see how goods are moving in and out of the key port as a result of a recent data law that cracked down on data sharing. Industrial barometers from crude oil inventories at import terminals to high-frequency container throughput at ports were widely available previously, offering a real-time window on the world’s second-biggest economy unhampered by the delays and possible distortions of official economic data. But since China’s Personal Information Protection Law went into effect in November, crucial sources of information about the world’s biggest exporting nation have gone dark. Shipping companies and brokers have resorted to less accurate satellite-based tracking to monitor port delays. Traffic data to gauge truck shipping and commerce is no longer available. Traders track port activity by phone calls or even hand-counting ships. Organizations monitoring industrial or commercial activity in China must comply with strict rules on data classification, storage, cross-border transfers, and transparency and user consent management before they may publish such data to clients. Click here to read... [4]

China economy: Politburo vows new tools, refined policies will help address coronavirus-induced turmoil

Beijing has shown confidence that it can realise its seemingly conflicting goals of achieving an economic growth rate of “around 5.5 per cent” for the year while also maintaining a zero-Covid policy that continues to have an outsized impact on the economy. The top leadership vowed on April 29 to speed up the implementation of existing tax-cut and supportive policies, as well as the use of new monetary policy tools and effective investment, while also refining regulatory policies, according to a statement following a quarterly economic meeting of the 25-member Politburo, the centre of power within the Communist Party headed by President Xi Jinping. Specifically, the widely watched Politburo meeting said that leadership will actively respond to the concerns and appeals of foreign investors, which have been greatly affected by fresh waves of coronavirus outbreaks that began last month. The meeting also showed signs that leaders may be keen on loosening their tight controls on internet firms and property developers. Just two days prior to the Politburo meeting, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission unveiled a new infrastructure plan that prioritises national security, with a call to front-load construction projects and financing support. Click here to read... [5]

hina capital outflows: as US battles inflation, Beijing goes on alert for ‘spillover effects’ from rate hikes

As the US shifts to more aggressive rate tightening, concern is mounting in Beijing about capital outflows and growing depreciation pressure on the yuan. The question on many people’s lips: how prepared is China to deal with it? Investors have withdrawn money from China at a rapid pace over the past two months, triggered by market expectations of further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, the Omicron outbreak and the Russia-Ukraine war. Besides selling government bonds, foreign investors have dumped Chinese equities, resulting in a stock market rout that has prompted officials to pledge support for markets and the economy. The “unprecedented” rate of capital outflows has alarmed officials in Beijing and led President Xi Jinping to warn of negative policy spillover from “some countries”. The last time China experienced such severe capital exodus came between 2015-17, and it was only halted by heavy capital controls and the burning of a quarter of the national foreign exchange reserves. Now, more cautious observers are warning that any misstep during the US Federal Reserve’s current rate cycle could come at a heavy cost to the Chinese economy. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said last week that a 50 basis point increase would be “on the table” in May. Click here to read... [6]

Chinese president outlines big role for private capital – as long as it’s on a regulatory leash

Chinese President Xi Jinping has highlighted the importance of private capital to development as the country tries to rally an economy battered by the coronavirus and regulatory storms. But he also told a Politburo meeting on April 29 that capital must be monitored to ensure that it did not undermine the Communist Party’s vision of common prosperity. “By its nature, capital pursues profits, and if it is not regulated and restrained, it will bring immeasurable harm to economic and social development,” state news agency Xinhua quoted him as saying. “Attention should be paid to ensure economic development is inclusive and the primary distribution [of income] is fair. “We will unswervingly follow the road of common prosperity for all the people,” he said, referring to efforts to tackle social and economic inequality. He said China should encourage all types of capital to drive technological advances, market growth and improvements to the quality of life. But investors should be “educated and guided” to practice China’s core socialist values and “walk the right way”, Xi said. More action would be taken against corruption and to promote fair competition in capital, particularly against corrupt behaviour driving disorderly expansion of capital and “a monopoly of platforms”. Click here to read... [7]

Russia Turns on Spending Taps to Blunt Economic Impact of War and Sanctions

Russia is assembling an economic relief package equivalent to tens of billions of dollars to soften the blow of Western sanctions and shield its population from the financial fallout of President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Moscow’s measures—which focus on aid to struggling individuals and businesses—are unlikely to prevent Russia from spiraling into its sharpest slowdown in decades, economists say. But they show the deep pockets available to the Kremlin to tide the population through the disruptions of the wartime economy. Since the Feb. 24 invasion, Mr. Putin has signed several rounds of anticrisis legislation and ordered an emergency increase in payments to pensioners, state employees and the needy to compensate for surging inflation. He has also backed state-subsidized loans to companies battered by sanctions. Such a move could provide a lifeline to factories that have halted production because of a lack of imported components, such as computer chips. Russia can spend generously in bolstering its economy thanks to its low debt burden and ample energy revenues—even as it faces mounting costs from the war in Ukraine. In March, the first full month of the conflict, Russian federal government spending climbed 37% from a year before, driven in part by rising defense expenditures, according to data from the finance ministry. But oil and gas revenues more than doubled in ruble terms over the same period, nearly compensating for the entire increase in spending, the data show. Click here to read... [8]

France shuts down 50% of nuclear reactors amid energy crunch

France, one of Europe’s leading electricity exporters, has taken 28 of its 56 atomic reactors offline due to defects or maintenance. The step comes amid a months-long energy crunch, one of the worst in European history. The 1,300-megawatt Golfech-2 reactor run by Electricite de France (EDF) in the south of country was shut down on April 29 for maintenance until April 30, the company said in a filing with grid operator RTE. The suspension, due to extended outages after corrosion issues were found at some sites, is expected to force EDF to purchase electricity from the European grid at a time of soaring demand exacerbated by natural gas shortages. Checks and repairs, along with scheduled halts for refueling and regular maintenance, have reportedly sunk French nuclear output to its lowest level in more than 10 years. The shutdowns are expected to aggravate Europe’s supply problems, with nuclear power accounting for more than two thirds of French electricity generation. Daily prices for electricity in France in 2022 have averaged nearly 30% more than in Germany, which relies more heavily on gas and coal to run its plants. They are reportedly four times higher than in the same period of 2021. Click here to read... [9]

Huge rise in Russian gas supplies to China – Gazprom

Russian gas supplies to China have shot up by almost 60% in the first four months of 2022 compared to the same period last year, Russian energy giant Gazprom announced on May 01. The deliveries are made through the Power of Siberia pipeline as part of the contract between Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the company said. When Russia launched its military operation against Ukraine in late February, Beijing refused to condemn Moscow or take part in the international sanctions, despite threats from Washington. The energy standoff between Russia and the West has led to gas supplies to countries outside the former Soviet Union dropping by 26.9% since the start of the year. A total of 50.1 billion cubic meters have been delivered over the past four months. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered gas payments from “unfriendly countries,” which include the EU, to be made in rubles from March 31. The measure was adopted after harsh sanctions were placed on Moscow amid the conflict in Ukraine. The EU initially rejected Moscow’s new rules, calling them “blackmail,” but the European Commission recently said there could be ways to pay for Russian gas in rubles without violating the sanctions. Click here to read... [10]

China's UnionPay shuns Russian banks as sanctions force caution

Even as China continues to distance itself from Western sanctions, the measures are affecting business decisions by companies like China UnionPay that worry about potentially being caught in the sanctions net themselves. The bank card services provider has refused to work with Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, and halted talks with other Russian financial institutions targeted by sanctions, forcing them to scrap plans to issue UnionPay cards, according to local media. While UnionPay accounted for only about 1% of bank cards issued in Russia as of 2020, interest had surged after Visa and Mastercard halted services there in response to this past February's invasion of Ukraine. But the Chinese company has been reluctant to take the opportunity to expand. More than 80% of Chinese companies in Russia have continued business as usual there, according to a list compiled by Yale University. This stands in sharp contrast to Japan, the U.S. and Germany, where roughly 90% of businesses have exited, scaled back or suspended operations in Russia or postponed plans there. But some in China have taken a more cautious approach. Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have restricted financing for Russian commodities. Click here to read... [11]

Chinese regions chase business opportunities in Russia as West exits

As Beijing opposes Western sanctions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, local Chinese governments are eager to support companies' expansion into a Russian market that global multinationals have abandoned. In an online forum geared toward investors, Shanghai-listed Senci Electric Machinery said it is looking for opportunities in Russia and Ukraine and will set up a sales team "at an appropriate time." Such efforts have the support of authorities. In the company's home city of Chongqing, the local branch of the China Chamber of International Commerce has partnered with Bank of Kunlun, a key player in China's yuan-denominated international payments network, to help facilitate export transactions to Russia. According to authorities in Xiangshan County of Ningbo, an export hub for textiles in Zhejiang Province, five local companies and a Russian trading house agreed to consider doing business in an online meeting early this month. Shandong Province, which is home to a robust electronics industry, hosted a conference at the end of March for Russian economic officials as well as Russian and Chinese industry groups. Similar efforts are also underway in Heilongjiang Province in China's northeast, which borders Russia. An organization dedicated to bolstering cooperation and trade with Russian companies launched this month in a pilot free trade zone in Harbin.Click here to read... [12]

Russian energy giant to quit foreign exchanges

Russia’s state-owned gas company Gazprom said on April 29 it was delisting its depository receipts from international stock exchanges after the Russian government refused to agree on their further circulation. According to a statement on the company’s website, holders will have the “right to convert them into ordinary shares.” Gazprom also said it has notified the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority of its intention to cancel standard listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The company has also asked the LSE and the Singapore Exchange to delist its depositary receipts within 20 business days. Under a new law, the securities of Russian companies can be traded on foreign trading floors only with special permission by Russian authorities. Last month, LSE blocked trading in 27 Russian corporations, including EN+, Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft, and Sberbank. The blacklist was part of Western efforts to cut Russia off from the international financial markets in response to Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine. Click here to read... [13]

Small Hainan takes on huge strategic role

Developments in the island province of Hainan get more interesting every year. It’s sometimes observed that it has not caught up with economic growth in southern China, especially the Greater Bay Area, despite its strategic position in the north of the South China Sea. But it may become the most important strategic province to the nation – because it is home to the most advanced naval hardware being built; it is key to defending China’s claims over maritime territories contested by at least four other countries and Taiwan. In this context, it’s even more intriguing that the 35,000 sq km island at the southernmost tip of the country is being turned into the world’s largest free-trade port with low taxes and more relaxed regulations to match, under a plan pushed by President Xi Jinping himself. As a free port and a naval hub, Hainan will likely become a main marker of Xi’s rule and its legacy, much like Shenzhen was for Deng Xiaoping. The Yulin Naval Base has been rapidly expanded in just the past two years. It can now reportedly berth up to 16 submarines, both conventional and nuclear, and host two aircraft carriers. Its proximity to the Paracel and Spratly archipelagos makes it the ideal jump-off point for naval operations. As well, with the submarines, it can coordinate underwater detection and surveillance with advanced remote sensors. Click here to read... [14]

Amazon’s Flagship Online-Shopping Business Stalls After Decades of Growth

Amazon.com legendary e-commerce machine, which has grown at breakneck speed for more than two decades, is showing signs of stalling. The tech giant on April 28 reported its slowest sales growth in roughly two decades. Product sales have flatlined, and revenue at its main online-shopping business segment has stagnated for six months, one of the worst periods of anemic growth in Amazon’s history. And company executives said overall sales might slow down even more. The company’s multibillion-dollar hiring spree and logistics build-out, necessary to keep up with demand during the pandemic, have yielded painful results during a period of inflation and economic contraction in America. For years, Amazon managed to increase its share of U.S. e-commerce as it grew rapidly, widening its lead over competitors. But its market share grew by just 0.2% in 2021 and so far in 2022, the slowest rate in years, research firm Insider Intelligence estimates. A broad swath of companies across industries are experiencing an online-shopping slump. In March, online spending in the U.S. was down 3.3% from a year earlier, the first such decline since 2013, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks transactions made over the Mastercard payments network as well as survey-based estimates for spending with cash and checks. Spending at bricks-and-mortar stores, by contrast, was up 11.2%.Click here to read... [15]

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia to discuss extending term of $3bn deposit

Saudi Arabia will discuss the option of extending the terms of its $3bn deposit in Pakistan’s central bank to help Islamabad’s faltering economy, according to a joint statement. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has provided Pakistan with $4.2bn of support in the form of a $3bn loan deposited with the central bank as well as $1.2bn in deferred oil payments to boost its foreign reserves. The cash-strapped nation’s foreign exchange reserves plunged below $11bn last month. “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia affirmed its continuous support to Pakistan and its economy, including the discussion of augmenting the $3bn deposit with the central bank through term extension or otherwise,” a joint statement issued on May 01 said. The latest sign of support follows a visit to Saudi Arabia by Pakistan’s new Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has inherited a crippling national debt, galloping inflation and a weak rupee. Saudia Arabia also pledged “to further enhance the financing of petroleum products” at a time when the South Asian country is suffering from frequent power cuts. The Gulf nation has long been a regular source of financial relief for successive governments. The statement comes after recent talks between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the release of funds under an existing $6bn aid programme that had stalled due to concerns about the pace of reforms. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Intl rules not the rules of a small circle: Chinese FM on Truss warning China

International rules should be the norms governing international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, rather than the rules of a small circle or clique, Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded on April 28 to UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss' "warning" that China must play by international rules. "Countries must play by the rules. And that includes China," Truss said in a speech at Mansion House in London. "They will not continue to rise if they do not play by the rules. China needs trade with the G7. We (the Group of Seven) represent around half of the global economy. And we have choices," she said. Truss said NATO needed to have a global outlook that extended to democracies outside its membership, according to Reuters. In response, Wang said that the Cold War has long since ended, and NATO, as a product of the Cold War and the world's largest military alliance, should assess the situation and make necessary adjustments. "However, NATO has long adhered to the old concept of security, engaged in confrontation between factions and become a tool for individual countries to seek hegemony," Wang noted at April 28's press briefing. Wang said that NATO claims to be a defensive organization, but in fact, it is constantly creating confrontations and disturbances. Click here to read... [17]

Japan mulls classifying its key defense document – media

Japan is considering partially classifying its chief defense document in the wake of “security threats by China and Russia,” Kyodo News reported on April 30, citing government sources. Making the National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG), the country’s 10-year military buildup policy, secret would be in line with the mostly classified US National Defense Strategy and would allow Tokyo to be “more specific” in making contingency plans involving North Korea, the sources told the Japanese news agency. The government in Tokyo will review the current defense guidelines, which are publicly available, by the end of the year, focusing on whether Japan can acquire weapons to launch counterstrikes on enemy bases, Kyodo News wrote. The matter is a sensitive issue, given Japan’s defense-oriented constitution that explicitly renounces war. “Having a document similar to the [US] National Defense Strategy is requisite,” a lawmaker from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was quoted as saying. On April 27, the LDP proposed revising Japan’s most important defense and diplomacy documents amid what it described as an “increasingly severe” security environment. The lawmakers specifically urged the government to develop “counterstrike capabilities” and consider roughly doubling the defense budget to 2% or more of GDP, Japanese media said. Click here to read... [18]

Bill to help Taiwan regain WHO status passes Congress, sent to Biden for signature

The U.S. House of Representatives unanimously passed legislation on April 27 calling on the State Department to submit a plan to help Taiwan regain its observer status at the World Health Organization, seeking to boost the island as it faces pressure from China. The House passed the bill 425 to 0, sending it to the White House because it passed the Senate in August. Congressional aides said they expected President Joe Biden to sign the measure into law. Taiwan is excluded from most global organizations such as the WHO, the U.N. health agency, because of the objections of China, which considers the island one of its provinces and not a separate country. The measure directs the Secretary of State to establish a strategy for obtaining observer status at the World Health Assembly, the decision-making body of the WHO. Taiwan was stripped of that status in 2017. Urging support for the bill, Democratic Representative Gerry Connolly praised Taiwan’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that it had only 37,000 confirmed cases despite a population of 23.5 million, and that it shared expertise and donated protective equipment internationally. China however has already signaled it will not support Taiwan’s participation at this year’s assembly. Click here to read... [19]

Taiwan howitzers delayed, ‘crowded out’ of US production lines

Production issues have set back delivery of the first batch of US weapons approved for Taiwan by Joe Biden’s administration, according to the island’s defence ministry. The ministry said on May 02 it had been notified that next year’s expected delivery of howitzer artillery systems would be delayed until 2026. “The production line is crowded out,” it said. “We have cooperated with the United States to research and develop advanced alternatives to meet actual operational needs,” the ministry said, adding it would continue to communicate with the US on the issue. Taiwan’s United Daily News reported on May 02 that some lawmakers had been told by the defence ministry that the US could not supply the first batch of the promised 40 howitzer systems because of the war in Ukraine. Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing, said US commitments to provide weapons to Ukraine could be a reason for the setback but it might also reflect Washington’s delicate recalibration of its Taiwan policies. “This move can be interpreted as the US wanting to cool the warm ties with Taiwan for a while, as a supposed Boeing aircraft deal [also] went nowhere. But this cooling in ties is temporary and tactical, and won’t change the fundamental cooperation between the two sides.” Click here to read... [20]

Ukraine, China in focus for Kishida on Southeast Asia visit

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida set off on April 29 for an extended visit to Southeast Asia, aiming to marshal regional responses to the Ukraine crisis as well as counter China's growing assertiveness in the region. As Asia's sole member of the Group of Seven (G7), Japan hopes to hold talks on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and consolidate responses in Southeast Asia, where only one nation, Singapore, has joined sanctions against Russia, officials say. Japan is also eager to discuss regional security issues relating to China's growing assertiveness, while Southeast Asian nations wary of losing access to its economy look to steer clear of an intense confrontation between the United States, a key ally of Japan, and Beijing. Kishida will first visit Indonesia, which is this year's chair of the Group of 20 major economies, of which Russia is also a member, and a major economic power in the region. Indonesia will also chair the Association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN) next year. Kishida last month went to Cambodia, which heads the organisation this year. He will then go to Vietnam, followed by Thailand, host of the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEC) in 2022, before proceeding to Europe. Click here to read... [21]

Japan foreign minister to go to South Korea leader's inauguration

Japan plans to send Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi to South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's inauguration ceremony next week, deciding not to consent to Seoul's wish for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to attend, government sources said May 02. Seoul had hoped for Kishida's presence at the May 10 event to help improve bilateral relations that have soured over historical disputes which stem from Japan's 1910-1945 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula. But the sources said Tokyo has decided the Japanese leader cannot go without any guarantee of progress on the disagreements. During his stay, Hayashi is expected to hold meetings with key officials of the new South Korean government with the hope they will agree to work toward mending political ties that have sunk to their lowest level in years under the administration of the current president, Moon Jae In, the sources said. Calling for a "future-oriented" approach, Yoon sent a delegation to Japan last week for meetings with Kishida, Hayashi and other ministers to seek to repair bilateral ties, with the prime minister telling the visitors, "We have no time to spare in improving Japan-South Korea relations." Some Japanese ruling party lawmakers are also against Kishida heading to South Korea at this point out of concern that Japan's stance could be interpreted as being too conciliatory. Click here to read... [22]

The Marcos revival: How late Philippine dictator's son went from exile to election favorite

Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the front-runner in next month's Philippine presidential election, greeted thousands of rain-soaked supporters with a very personal shoutout: to his 92-year-old mother, Imelda. The former first lady would have joined this rally in her home city of Tacloban had it not been for the COVID-19 pandemic, said the 64-year-old candidate, widely known as "Bongbong." "I'm sure my mom is watching on livestream. Let's greet Imelda. Hello Imelda!" Marcos said, waving from the stage on April 9 during an event streamed live on Facebook. The drenched loyalist crowd erupted into applause and shouts. His words were more than a politician's standard stump speech tribute to an aging parent. Imelda Marcos won global notoriety in 1986 when the ousting of her late husband Ferdinand's Philippine dictatorship exposed her 3,000-pair shoe collection to the world. Legions of loyal supporters and young voters born after the corrupt and brutal Marcos Sr. dictatorship are propelling the family's redemption. Filipinos disillusioned with the political establishment that came after the restoration of democracy are feeling nostalgic for a Marcos presidency. Meanwhile, a barrage of online propaganda painting tyranny as the country's good old days has put the Marcos patriarch's polarizing legacy -- defined by his 1972 imposition of martial law -- at the center of the May 9 presidential poll. Click here to read... [23]

Putin, Zelensky both invited to G20: Indonesian president

Indonesia has invited both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the Group of 20 (G20) summit in November, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said April 29. "Indonesia is ready to contribute to the peace effort," Widodo said in a virtual press conference. "Indonesia wants to unite the G20. Do not let there be a split. Peace and stability are the keys to the world economic development." The G20, he said, plays a catalyst role in the recovery of the world economy, adding that he had telephone conversations with both leaders of Russia and Ukraine this week. On April 28, Widodo and Putin discussed issues of Russian-Indonesian cooperation and various aspects of the activities of G20 in a phone conversation. In a conversation with Zelensky on April 27, Widodo turned down a request for arms from the Ukrainian president, saying that Indonesia is ready to provide humanitarian assistance. Click here to read... [24]

Beijing centralises power in the provinces ahead of Communist Party congress

The new party boss for China’s tech hub Shenzhen, Meng Fanli, made his first public appearance last month at Lianhuashan Park to honour the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping for his pioneering market reforms. “We must consistently align our ideology, politics and actions with the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core,” he said, according to media reports from Shenzhen, in southern China’s Guangdong province. The 56-year-old, from Shandong province in the east, is the latest addition to Guangdong’s senior leadership, in a reshuffle that has seen an increasing number of outsiders parachuted in to key positions that once traditionally went to locals. The shift towards promoting outsiders to provincial roles is not unique to Guangdong. Numerous studies measuring provincial leadership rotations show an intensifying trend towards centralisation of power. According to Li Tao, associate professor of government and public administration at the University of Macau, Beijing’s deepening political control of provincial offices suggests a shift in focus from economics to politics. “Political localism will shrink across China. Guangdong, which used to be a province with relatively few outsiders, is feeling the impact of centralisation much stronger than other provinces,” he said. He found the officials also served shorter tenures while rotation frequencies increased, pointing to political centralisation with less emphasis on localism, local expertise and the economyClick here to read... [25]

Iran outlines joint goals with China

Iran sees its relations with China as part of an effort by like-minded powers to confront US unilateralism and create stability and order, President Ebrahim Raisi told Beijing's visiting Defense Minister Wei Fenghe on April 27. Raisi said that the successful implementation of the 25-year strategic cooperation agreement between the two countries, signed in 2021, was a priority for Tehran, according to state media. Wei said his visit was aimed at “improving the strategic defense cooperation” between Tehran and Beijing, which would have a “remarkable” impact on fighting terrorism and defusing unilateralism, “particularly in the current critical and tense situation.” Wei also met with Iranian Defense Minister General Mohammed Reza Ashtiani and reportedly invited him to visit China. In their meeting, Ashtiani stressed “the need to counter American hegemony in the world by strengthening multilateralism,” according to a statement by the Iranian Defense Ministry. Ashtiani also criticized the US military presence in the Middle East and elsewhere, saying that “wherever the US has had military presence, it has created waves of insecurity, instability, rifts, pessimism, war, destruction and displacement,” according to IRNA. The 2021 strategic cooperation treaty has paved the way to military cooperation between Iran and China, but also a variety of economic activities ranging from oil trade to transportation and agriculture. Click here to read... [26]

Blinken defends Iran deal talks against congressional criticism

Despite an apparent impasse in talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has defended efforts to revive the agreement against congressional criticism, stressing that a return to the pact would curb Tehran’s nuclear programme. Testifying at the United States Senate on April 26, Blinken told lawmakers that the deal succeeded in limiting Iranian production of fissile material needed to build a nuclear weapon – until the former US administration withdrew from the agreement. “We continue to believe that getting back into compliance with the agreement would be the best way to address the nuclear challenge posed by Iran, and to make sure that an Iran that is already acting with incredible aggression doesn’t have a nuclear weapon or the ability to produce one on short notice,” he said. Senator Bob Menendez, chair of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, and James Risch, the top Republican on the panel, had grilled Blinken about what they described as the limitations of the agreement, which does not tackle Iran’s ballistic missile programme or its regional policies. “No agreement is better than a bad agreement. I would urge you to move on [from the talks],” Risch told Blinken. Click here to read... [27]

What Pakistan suicide blast reveals about the Balochistan insurgency and China

China and its belt-and-road projects in Pakistan are a collateral casualty of the insurgency in Balochistan region, rather than the target, according to politicians, dissidents and analysts. The suicide bombing on April 26 by a militant Baloch nationalist, which killed three Chinese academics and their Pakistani driver inside Karachi University, was a strategic move to build pressure on Pakistan’s security establishment, the observers told This Week In Asia. “The Baloch dissidents’ agenda is primarily directed against the Pakistani state,” said Mushahid Hussain, a ranking member of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party who chairs the Senate committee on defence. The China factor became an “add-on” issue only after the US$60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was established in 2015, he said. Balochistan is a vast, largely inhospitable province in western Pakistan that is rich in natural resources. Separatists in the region have long fought for greater control over their minerals and political autonomy. Nawab Akbar Bugti, a former governor and chief minister, launched the insurgency in 2005. Pakistani politicians in 2006 and 2015 came close to reaching peace settlements with Baloch militant leaders, but these efforts were sabotaged by establishment hardliners, said Hussain. Click here to read... [28]

Eight months on, Taliban’s rule is far from stable

When the Taliban, loaded with guns and firepower and riding on the promise of “peace, stability and unity,” took over Kabul in August last year, few at the time believed the militant group’s seizure of power marked a transition from war to peacetime stability. Fast forward eight months, the Taliban’s fractious regime is far from stable, either politically, economically or geostrategically. The poor economic situation, with the country careening towards widespread famine, is only one side of the Taliban’s problem. Emerging power centers within Afghanistan pose a direct challenge to the Taliban’s claims to be the only representative party or power wielder. And those competing political forces are making their point in an explosive fashion. On April 29, a blast in Kabul in a mosque belonging to a Sunni minority group – the Zikris – killed at least 50 people. On April 28, a bomb blast in a van carrying Shiite Muslims in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif killed at least nine people. The attack on the Shiite van came after Taliban leaders claimed to have captured an ISIS-K mastermind of the previous attack in Mazar-e-Sharif on a Shiite mosque that killed at least 31. These attacks challenge the Taliban leadership’s claims to have eliminated opposed terror groups like ISIS-K, offered full protection to minorities and claimed groups like ISIS-K do not pose a serious threat. While their claims have by now clearly been proven wrong, there is little denying that the continuing success of ISIS-K is directly tied to the Taliban regime for several reasons. Click here to read... [29]

Turkey Tries to Remain Neutral as Russia’s War Persists

Turkey has proven adept at maintaining neutrality in regards to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. While Ankara has condemned Russia’s “special military operation,” it has also declined to follow the lead of its NATO allies in supporting US-led sanctions on Moscow. According to local experts, its reasons for doing so are both economic and political, and reflect Turkey’s varied approach to its relations with Russia. “Turkey is a neighbor to both countries, with whom it has intense economic relations,” Halil Akinci, who served as Turkey’s ambassador to Russia from 2008 to 2010, told The Epoch Times. “So it’s in Ankara’s interest to stay on good terms with them both.” Neutrality, he added, also left Turkey in the perfect position to mediate—thus raising its international profile—“since we’re the only ones acceptable to both sides.” When the Russian operation first began on Feb. 24, Turkish officials condemned it as “unacceptable” and a “violation of international law.” They were also quick to stress, however, that Ankara—unlike its NATO allies—had no intention of enforcing US-led sanctions on Russia. Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, a political analyst and head of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy, an independent think-tank, said Turkey had “reasonable grounds” for declining to support sanctions. Click here to read... [30]

Erdogan's visit to the Kingdom is expected to usher in a new era of cooperation between the two countries

Following April 28’s meeting in Jeddah between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and King Salman of Saudi Arabia, the strained relationship between the two countries is expected to dramatically improve. The ice-breaking meeting — the highest-level diplomatic rendezvous between Turkey and Saudi Arabia since 2017 — is part of broader efforts by Turkey to improve its relationships with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in recent months, during which economic ties have been revived and Turkey has abstained from regional conflicts. Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia lifted its ban on Turkish goods, which had been in effect for four years. As a result of Erdogan’s visit, the two countries are set to boost bilateral cooperation in health, energy, food security, defense, agriculture and finance. Turkey’s emerging drone technology may also be of interest to Riyadh. The two-day visit is expected to signal a new chapter not only in economic terms, but also in regional politics — forming a bloc that will have greater influence over regional crisis points. A political alignment between the two countries will offer Ankara greater weight when it comes to issues including Syria, Egypt, Iraq and the Eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish-Saudi defense partnership reached its peak in 2016 when ASELSAN, one of the top Turkish defense companies, signed a tripartite memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Saudi defense companies TAQNIA and KACST. Click here to read... [31]

Medical

Measles cases surge worldwide, UN agencies warn

Measles cases have surged by nearly 80 percent worldwide this year, the United Nations said on April 27 adding that the rise in cases of measles was a forewarning of the likely outbreaks of other diseases. The coronavirus pandemic interrupted vaccination campaigns for many diseases around the world, creating a “perfect storm” that could now put millions of children’s lives at risk, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Health Organization (WHO) said in a statement. “Almost 17,338 measles cases were reported worldwide in January and February 2022, compared to 9,665 during the first two months of 2021,” the UN agencies said, adding that cases of highly-transmissible measles tend to show up quickly when vaccination levels decline. The agencies are now concerned that the outbreaks of measles “could forewarn outbreaks of other diseases that do not spread as rapidly”. There have been 21 large and disruptive measles outbreaks in the last 12 months up to this month, most of them in Africa and the eastern Mediterranean, UN data shows. Somalia recorded by far the most measles cases in the last 12 months with more than 9,000 cases, the UN data shows, followed by Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria and Ethiopia – all countries facing some form of conflict. Click here to read... [32]

Climate change increases risk of new viruses emerging: Research

Climate change will drive animals towards cooler areas where their first encounters with other species will vastly increase the risk of new viruses infecting humans, researchers warned on April 28. There are currently at least 10,000 viruses “circulating silently” among wild mammals that have the capacity to cross over into humans, mostly in the depths of tropical forests. As rising temperatures force those mammals to abandon their native habitats, they will meet other species for the first time, creating at least 15,000 new instances of viruses jumping between animals by 2070, according to a study published in the journal Nature. “We have demonstrated a novel and potentially devastating mechanism for disease emergence that could threaten the health of animal populations in the future, which will most likely have ramifications for our health too,” said study co-author Gregory Albery, a disease ecologist at Georgetown University. “This work provides us with more incontrovertible evidence that the coming decades will not only be hotter, but sicker,” Albery said. The study, five years in the making, looked at 3,139 species of mammals, modelling how their movements would change under a range of global warming scenarios, then analysing how viral transmission would be affected. Click here to read... [33]