Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 12 April 2022 - 17 April 2022

Economic

China GDP: economy grew, but ‘more pain will come’ as coronavirus, lockdown pressures weigh on outlook

China’s first quarter growth beat expectations, but weaknesses highlighted by the ongoing coronavirus wave hang over the economic outlook, with questions being asked if Beijing will take further action to guard against multiple headwinds. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.8 per cent in the first three months of 2022 compared with a year earlier, which was confirmed on Monday, was higher than the 4 per cent expansion registered in the previous quarter and is in stark contrast to the start of 2020, when China’s economy shrank by 6.8 per cent. But in the first three months of this year, consumption, exports and investment are all losing steam and businesses and residents in Shanghai, which has been under a de facto lockdown since the end of March, are demanding action. Many other Chinese cities are also feeling the strain of China’s “dynamic zero-Covid strategy”, and analysts have pointed to a convergence of downward pressure, which also includes a rising jobless rate, growing capital outflows and the emergence of higher producer and consumer prices. “GDP in the first quarter does not fully reflect lockdown impacts,” said Iris Pang, chief Greater China economist at ING Bank. “More pain will come in the second quarter.” Click here to read... [2]

Hot Economy, Rising Inflation: The Fed Has Never Successfully Fixed a Problem Like This

The Federal Reserve is setting out to do something it has never accomplished before: reduce inflation a lot without significantly raising unemployment. Central bank officials think it is possible with calibrated interest rate increases that slow booming demand just enough to take steam out of an overheated economy. But even one of the Fed’s closest allies, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, sees the risk of failure. “It will require skill and also good luck,” the former Fed chair said in public comments in Washington last week. During the past 80 years, the Fed has never lowered inflation as much as it is setting out to do now—by four percentage points—without causing recession. In this case, the central bank will need a number of factors out of its control to break its way. Still, Fed officials can find reason for both optimism and caution from history. In seven different episodes during the past 80 years, inflation has fallen as much as the Fed bank wants it to drop now, with varying outcomes. The episodes suggest that the desired scenario is theoretically possible though the risk of failure is high, especially because the bank is chasing inflation that already exists, rather than addressing the problem before it arises as it did in some earlier episodes. If the Fed is to land the plane safely, the labor market will be key. Click here to read... [3]

Weak yen vexes Team Kishida as inflation looms over election

The yen continued its slide April 18 despite top Japanese officials voicing rare warnings about the drawbacks of a sharp depreciation, as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government fears that inflation could turn voters sour. Rising prices for food and other necessities have hit consumers as this summer's upper house parliamentary election nears. A weak yen amplifies the problem by making imports costlier, and the Japanese currency slumped to a new 20-year low against the dollar on April 18. Inflation is expected to exceed 2% this month and looks set to accelerate further amid the recent commodities rally. The traditional assumption that a weak yen benefits Japan's economy is changing, as two unusual comments April 18 from top finance officials show. Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda told lawmakers that "negative side effects" from the yen's "excessively sharp" drop need to be considered. At the same meeting, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the current depreciation is "on the negative side," echoing his remark April 15 that "a weak yen can be considered a bad thing." These efforts to talk up the currency are having limited impact. Click here to read... [4]

Putin says Russia should pivot energy exports to Asia

Western countries attempting to exclude Russian energy suppliers will affect the world economy and Moscow should redirect its energy exports towards Asia, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. “We need to proceed on the basis that in the foreseeable future, supplies of energy to the West will be reduced,” Putin told a televised government meeting on the energy sector on April 14. Western governments have imposed far-reaching sanctions on Russia’s financial sectors in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and have also announced measures to ban or reduce the use of Russian oil, gas and coal. Putin said Russia, which accounts for approximately one-tenth of global oil production and about one-fifth of global gas supplies, should continue in the direction it has taken in recent years and “step-by-step, shift the direction of our exports to the fast-growing markets of the South and East”. Putin also called for the acceleration of infrastructure projects, such as railways, pipelines and ports, that will redirect oil and gas supplies from the West to “promising” markets in the global East and South, ordering his officials to present a plan by June 1 on “expanding transport infrastructure to countries of Africa, Latin America (and the) Asia Pacific”. Click here to read... [5]

EU turns to Africa for help

Europe is looking to Africa for its energy needs as countries seek to cut reliance on Russian imports amid the conflict in Ukraine, according to media reports. The EU’s third-largest economy, Italy, secured a deal last week with Algeria for more natural gas imports. The North African country already supplies gas to Europe via three pipelines, one of which goes to Italy. The two other pipelines are linked to Spain. Italian energy supermajor Eni also signed an agreement on April 13 with Egypt’s state-owned Natural Gas Holding Company to promote gas exports to Europe. The deals come following a meeting between European ambassadors and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) April 04, to “strengthen partnership” in the energy sector. Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is expected to travel to central and southern Africa this week with potential deals in the Republic of Congo and Angola, Bloomberg reported, citing sources. All of these deals together could help to replace over half the supply Italy gets from Russia as early as 2023, according to Bloomberg. Russia supplies around 40% of the EU’s gas and provides around a third of the bloc’s oil needs. Earlier in April, the European Union approved a ban on Russian coal, but could not reach an agreement on an oil and natural gas embargo. Click here to read... [6]

China-EU trade: commercial ties ‘hard to break’ despite disagreement over Ukraine war

Trade between China and the European Union (EU) could see some minor strains over Beijing’s stance on the Ukraine war, but decoupling is unlikely given the entrenched commercial relationship and impracticality of diversifying supply chains, experts say. China surpassed the United States to become the EU’s largest trading partner in 2020-21 thanks to strong demand during the coronavirus pandemic. The EU trade in goods with China was worth €587.9 billion (US$637.2 billion) in 2020 and €695.5 billion in 2021, according to Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics database. The EU trade in goods with the US was valued at €556.2 billion in 2020 and €631.4 billion in 2021. However, if trade in services is accounted, the US remains by far the most important trade partner of the EU. Despite booming trade, the EU-China relationship has become strained over the past two years, with a long-negotiated investment deal between the two suspended in May last year. Tang Heiwai, acting director at the University of Hong Kong’s Asia Global Institute, said the Ukraine war will not affect trade “in a significant way”. In terms of outbound investment, the EU has invested around €148 billion in China over the past two decades, whereas China had spent around €117 billion in the EU. “The EU’s direct investment in the US is almost 15 times larger than its investment in China, while Chinese investment in the EU amounts to about one-twentieth of US investment,” he said. Click here to read... [7]

Elon Musk Wants to Buy Twitter

In a week Elon Musk has moved from holding a 9.2% stake in Twitter with a seat on the board to offering to buy out the social-media site for $43 billion cash. The offer is causing a meltdown in progressive circles that don’t appreciate Mr. Musk as much on free speech as they do when he’s building electric cars. “I believe free speech is a societal imperative for a functioning democracy,” Mr. Musk wrote in announcing his bid. “I now realize the company will neither thrive nor serve this societal imperative in its current form.” He is offering $54.20 a share. Before his stake went public, the stock was trading near $39. Twitter lost $221 million in 2021 and $1.1 billion in 2020, and it might miss its target for user growth. Many shareholders will want to take Mr. Musk’s money and run. This is a business gamble for Mr. Musk. But at the Ted2022 conference on April 14 in Vancouver, Canada, he said: “This isn’t a way to make money. My strong intuitive sense is that having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important to the future of civilization. I don’t care about the economics at all.” Click here to read... [8]

Sri Lanka to temporarily suspend debt payments: central bank chief

Sri Lanka will temporarily suspend foreign debt payments to avoid a hard default, the central bank governor said on April 12, with its limited foreign reserves required for imports of essential items such as fuel. "It has come to a point that making debt payments are challenging and impossible. The best action that can be taken is to restructure debt and avoid a hard default," Governor P. Nandalal Weerasinghe told reporters. Sri Lanka is due to start talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a loan programme next week, with the country suffering from prolonged power cuts alongside shortages of food and medicines. The island nation's foreign reserves stood at a paltry $1.93 billion at the end of March, with foreign debt payments of around $4 billion due this year, including a $1 billion international sovereign bond maturing in July. The governor said the action was being taken in good faith, emphasizing that the country of 22 million people had never defaulted on its debt payments. "This will be on a temporary basis until we come to an agreement with creditors and with the support of a programme with the IMF," said Weerasinghe, who took office last week amid growing public unrest triggered by the economic crisis. Click here to read... [9]

Libya’s NOC says output halted at major ports and fields

Libya’s National Oil Corporation has announced the closure of operations in major oil fields after staff in the key export terminal of Zueitina were blocked from working. The company said it could no longer implement contractual obligations for oil deliveries from Zueitina terminal or from its biggest oil field, Sharara, after previously saying it had halted production at another field, Al-Fil. “The National Oil Corporation is obliged to declare a state of force majeure on the oil port of Zueitina, including all fields and producing stations associated with this port and shipping facilities until further notice,” NOC chief Mustafa Sanalla said in a statement on April 18. Declaring force majeure is a legal move allowing parties to free themselves from contractual obligations when factors such as fighting or natural disasters make meeting them impossible. “These interruptions were caused by the entry of a group of individuals into the port of Zueitina,” the firm said in a statement, adding that the group “prevented workers” from continuing exports. Zueitina is one of the four oil terminals in the so-called “Oil Crescent” region, and its closures will prevent Libya from exporting almost a quarter of its 1.2 million barrels per day of production. Click here to read... [10]

Saudi, Kuwait to develop gas field despite Iran condemnation

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will develop a disputed gas field despite Iranian objections while urging Tehran to engage in negotiations. The Gulf allies will honour their deal – branded “illegal” by Iran – to develop the Arash/Dorra maritime gas field, the Saudi foreign ministry said in a statement on April 13. “Saudi Arabia and … Kuwait affirm their right to exploit the natural resources in this area and that they will continue working to enforce what was agreed upon,” it said. But the two countries also issued a new invitation for Iran to negotiate over the boundary of the gas field, the subject of a dispute that goes back decades. “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the State of Kuwait, as a single negotiating party, renew their invitation to the Islamic Republic of Iran to hold these negotiations,” the statement said. Tehran in late March said the deal contravened “previously held negotiations”, adding it “reserves its right to exploit” the field. The row over the field dates back to the 1960s, when Iran and Kuwait each awarded an offshore concession, one to the former Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, the forerunner to BP, and one to Royal Dutch Shell. Click here to read... [11]

Iran's hope of Ukraine oil windfall fades, lacking leverage on U.S.

Anticipating the possible lifting of U.S. sanctions, Iran has amassed 150 million barrels of oil on ships off its coast, sources tell Nikkei Asia. In Bushehr Province, across the Persian Gulf from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia's east coast, a long queue of tankers floats near the shore. These ships hold Iran's surplus oil, which can be pumped into the market as soon as sanctions are lifted, local officials said. But hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations over Iran's nuclear technology program -- and the related sanctions -- seem to be dwindling, as the international talks in Vienna have been suspended for a month. Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 threw the world's energy market into disarray. Russian oil supply is expected to fall by 1.5 million barrels per day in April and rise to around 3 mbd from May, according to the Oil Market Report released April 13 by the International Energy Agency. Iran's negotiators suddenly became busy as global traders began to count Iranian oil as a possible alternative to Russian crude. But the shale-rich U.S. has not gone out of its way to accommodate Tehran's requests. Alternative oil will come first from the Arab Gulf countries, said Daniel Yergin, an energy specialist who is vice chairman of S&P Global. Click here to read... [12]

Strategic

Ukraine War Is Depleting America’s Arsenal of Democracy

General Mark Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that the West has delivered 60,000 antitank weapons and 25,000 anti-aircraft weapons to Kyiv. The Pentagon is now laying plans to rush additional artillery, coastal defense drones and other materiel to Ukraine. The White House on April 13 announced a new $800 million package including helicopters and armored personnel carriers. But President Joe Biden never planned for a war like this. The assumption was that Russia would quickly conquer much of the country, so the U.S. would be supporting a simmering, low-intensity Ukrainian insurgency. Instead, Ukraine’s successful resistance has led to an ongoing, high-intensity conventional fight, with prodigious consumption of munitions and intense attrition of key military assets. Pentagon officials say that Kyiv is blowing through a week’s worth of deliveries of antitank munitions every day. It is also running short of usable aircraft as Russian airstrikes and combat losses take their toll. Ammunition has become scarce in Mariupol and other areas. This is presenting Western countries with a stark choice between pouring more supplies into Ukraine or husbanding finite capabilities they may need for their own defense. Click here to read... [13]

Document reveals $14 billion backlog of US defense transfers to Taiwan

Pandemic-related acquisition issues have sparked a backlog in the U.S. delivering $14.2 billion worth of military equipment to Taiwan that the island has purchased since 2019. With much of Washington’s attention focused on how to rapidly deploy a steady stream of military aid to Ukraine, some lawmakers are concerned the Taiwan delay is undermining its ability to deter a potential Chinese invasion. Rep. Steve Chabot, the top Republican on the House’s Asia and Pacific panel, told Defense News that the Foreign Affairs Committee held a meeting to discuss the backlog last week. “We need to make sure that we provide Taiwan with the assistance that they need as well so that they’re not vulnerable to the [People’s Republic of China],” the lawmaker from Ohio said. “Obviously Ukraine is in the limelight right now — and rightfully so — but we best not forget about Taiwan because China’s actions have been more and more provocative.” Defense News has obtained a spreadsheet detailing the backlogged equipment, which includes Taiwan’s $8 billion purchase of 66 F-16 fighter jets as well as $620 million to replace expiring components of its Patriot missile system. The delayed deliveries also consist of smaller, asymmetric weapons systems Washington believes would be useful in deterring and thwarting a potential Chinese invasion. Click here to read... [14]

Biden to send more weapons to Ukraine – media

US President Joe Biden is looking to mobilize his country's military industry and send another $750 million worth of the Pentagon’s own weapons stockpiles to Ukraine, according to new reports citing the customary anonymous officials in Washington. This is on top of the $1.7 billion worth of materiel sent to Kiev, courtesy of American taxpayers, since Russia attacked its neighbor in late February. So far US “lethal” aid has consisted mainly of Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger portable anti-air systems. Now, Biden is preparing to escalate the supplies to include heavy artillery and other systems, worth $750 million or so, Reuters reported on April 12, citing two US officials. The US has supplied more than 1,400 Stingers and 5,000 Javelins to Ukraine already, the Financial Times (FT) reported on April, citing the Pentagon. This amounts to a third of the US stock of Javelins and a quarter of its Stingers, estimated the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington lobby group. At current production rates, it will take three or four years to restock on Javelins and at least five for the Stingers. The CSIS is funded by weapons makers, which have included Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, General Dynamics, and General Atomics. Click here to read... [15]

Ukraine's Zelenskyy seeks military aid from South Korea

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on April 11 asked Seoul for any military aid it could provide as he said Russia could only be forced to make peace. Speaking in a video address to South Korean lawmakers, Zelenskyy said his country needed more help, including weapons, if it is to survive the war. "You have something that can be indispensable for us ... armoured vehicles, anti-aircraft, anti-tank, anti-ship weapons," he said. Zelenskyy said South Korea had many weapons that could not only help save the lives of ordinary Ukrainians but help prevent Russia from attacking other nations. Seoul's defence ministry on Aril 11 said it had rejected a request by Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov for anti-aircraft weapons. In a phone call on April 08, South Korean defence minister Suh Wook told his Ukrainian counterpart that any support of lethal weapons would be limited in light of South Korea's security situation and its potential impact on military readiness, ministry spokesman Boo Seung-chan said at a briefing. South Korea has provided humanitarian assistance worth $10 million to Ukraine and pledged last week to send another $30 million, while shipping some 20 types of non-lethal items including bulletproof helmets and medical kits, totaling 1 billion won ($811,000). Click here to read... [16]

Russia publishes data on foreign mercenaries in Ukraine

An estimated 6,824 foreign mercenaries from 63 countries have come to Ukraine to fight for Volodymyr Zelensky’s government, the Russian Defense Ministry stated on April 17. Of these, 1,035 have been “destroyed,” while several thousand remain. Four hundred foreign fighters are holed up in Mariupol, where nationalist forces, including the neo-Nazi fighters, have refused to surrender. The most numerous group of foreign fighters (1,717) arrived from Poland, while around 1,500 came from the US, Canada and Romania. Up to 300 people each came from the UK and Georgia, while 193 arrived from the Turkish-controlled areas of Syria. These figures were announced on April 17 by Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov. According to the general, 1,035 foreign mercenaries have been killed by Russian forces and 912 fled Ukraine, leaving 4,877 active in the cities of Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolaev and Mariupol. Roughly 400 of these foreign fighters remain embedded with Ukrainian nationalist battalions in the besieged port city of Mariupol, Konashenkov stated. Mercenary recruitment was narrowed in March to those with military experience and paused entirely at the beginning of April. A spokesman for Ukraine’s so-called “International Legion” told Canadian media that sending untrained volunteers to the front was becoming more of a hindrance than a help, and supplies of firearms and ammunition were running low. Click here to read... [17]

Syrian fighters ready to join Russia’s next phase of Ukraine war

During a visit to Syria in 2017, Vladimir Putin lavished praise on a Syrian general whose division played an instrumental role in defeating insurgents in the country’s long-running civil war. The Russian president told him his cooperation with Russian troops “will lead to great successes in the future”. Now members of Brigadier General Suheil al-Hassan’s division are among hundreds of Russian-trained Syrian fighters who have reportedly signed up to fight alongside Russian troops in Ukraine, including Syrian soldiers, former rebels and experienced fighters who fought for years against Islamic State in Syria’s desert. So far, only a small number appears to have arrived in Russia for military training ahead of deployment on the front lines. Although Kremlin officials boasted early in the war of more than 16,000 applications from the Middle East, US officials and activists monitoring Syria say there have not yet been significant numbers of fighters from the region joining the war in Ukraine. Analysts, however, say this could change as Russia prepares for the next phase of the battle with a full-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine. They believe fighters from Syria are more likely to be deployed in coming weeks, especially after Putin named General Alexander Dvornikov, who commanded the Russian military in Syria, as the new war commander in Ukraine. Click here to read... [18]

Russians unlikely to leave Libya, despite Ukraine war

Russia’s Wagner Group, a shadowy paramilitary organisation tied to the Kremlin, has played a significant role in Libya, supporting renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) in the country’s civil war. Western observers had begun wondering in recent weeks whether Wagner forces would be withdrawing from Libya to instead focus on supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although Moscow might need to adjust and reconfigure its mission in Libya, there is good reason to expect the Russians to continue their campaign, which has served to shape the security architecture of Libya’s east, where Haftar is based, and entrench itself. “Before February 24 [when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began], there was no indication that the clandestine Russian mission [in Libya] was withdrawing, shrinking, or anything of the sort,” Jalel Harchaoui, a researcher specialising in Libya, told Al Jazeera. While there are some unconfirmed reports that Russian mercenaries have been withdrawn from the country to fight in Ukraine, the majority have remained. Sustaining a military presence in Libya is key to Russia’s agendas elsewhere on the African continent, especially in the Sahel region. Click here to read... [19]

Pentagon warns of ‘dramatic’ increase in space challenges

Competition from Russia and China to the US, and its allies, in space has increased “dramatically,” America's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) said on April 12. Moscow and Beijing are also cooperating in exploration and may soon start exploiting the Moon's natural resources, US military officials claimed. The DIA, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm, delivered the warning as it presented to the public its update to the 2019 report entitled, “Challenges to Security in Space.” China and Russia continue to take steps to “undercut” the advantage that the American military enjoys in space assets, John F. Huth, the DIA defense intelligence officer for space and counterspace, said. “Both nations view space as a requirement for winning modern wars, especially against Western nations, and look to prove themselves as world leaders,” he said. “Since early 2019, competitor space operations have increased in pace and scope across nearly all major categories: communications, remote sensing, aviation and science and technology demonstration.” Their combined in-orbit assets “grew approximately 70% in just two years,” said Kevin Ryder, a senior analyst with the agency. “This recent and continuing expansion follows a more than 200% increase between 2015 and 2018,” he said. The US relies heavily on space for collecting intelligence and providing communications for its military operationsClick here to read... [20]

Shanghai’s Covid-19 outbreak stalls plans for China’s third aircraft carrier

Shanghai’s coronavirus lockdown has slowed China’s shipbuilding plans and may affect the launch of the country’s third aircraft carrier, sources said. The People’s Liberation Army Navy had been widely expected to launch the new carrier around the navy’s 73rd anniversary, on April 23. “But the plan faces delay as the rampant pandemic in Shanghai has delayed the transport of some key components,” one of the sources, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, said. Construction of the Type 003 has been under way at the Jiangnan Shipyard on Shanghai’s Changxing Island since 2017 and was expected to be ready for launch early this year. Recent satellite image from Google Earth showed construction of the nearly 320-metre-long platform is almost completed. According to the photos, covers have been put over the vessel’s three catapults, indicating they are ready, but the two elevators to lift aircraft from the carrier’s hangars have not been fitted fully. Unlike the two country’s two other aircraft carriers the Liaoning and the Shandong, the Type 003 has a flat-top flight deck to be equipped with three sophisticated electromagnetic catapults, similar to the world’s most advanced aircraft launch systems. The Liaoning and the Shandong have ski-jump launch ramps, an older technology. Click here to read... [21]

PLA gathers hundreds of arms firms, seeks logistics boost from intelligent drones

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Joint Logistics Support Force recently organized an unmanned intelligent equipment inspection event, gathering hundreds of arms companies to display their drone products, in a move analysts said on April 11 to find the right equipment that can enhance the Chinese military's logistics support capabilities and boost the PLAs' overall combat capabilities. The arms companies brought their independently developed unmanned equipment to the inspection, as the event organizer, the PLA Joint Logistics Support Force, evaluated the drones' performances in demonstration tests, China Central Television (CCTV) reported on April 10. During the evaluation, a type of drone helicopter was given a mission to evacuate a wounded soldier from the frontline to safety in a simulation exercise. In another test, a type of unmanned six-wheeled truck displayed its ability to rapidly transport 80 tons of munitions to the frontline thanks to its all-terrain designs, CCTV reported. The PLA Joint Logistics Support Force has been actively exploring the application of unmanned intelligent technologies in fields like the transport of supplies, the transfer of the wounded and emergency search and rescue, CCTV reported, noting that drones can play irreplaceable roles in future battlefields thanks to their flexibility, efficiency and safety. Click here to read... [22]

US to set up naval task force near Yemen

The US Navy announced on April 13 that a new task force will patrol the waters of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, connected by the narrow Bab al-Mandab strait. The group will target shipments of weapons to Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are engaged in a conflict with Washington's ally Saudi Arabia. The unit will consist of between two and eight warships and will be part of the 34-nation Combined Maritime Forces, an organization that already has three other task forces conducting anti-piracy and smuggling patrols in nearby waters. “These are strategically important waters that warrant our attention,” Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of the US Fifth Fleet, told reporters. He said the force will target the trafficking of people and drugs, as well as the ability of the Houthis to receive rockets and drones for attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE. According to a UN-brokered truce, which came in effect this month, Saudi Arabia must allow fuel ships into the Red Sea port of Hodeida. Riyadh previously maintained a blockade of the facility, which it said was necessary to prevent the smuggling of weapons. The UN has banned the supply of weapons to the Houthis. Click here to read... [23]

Turkey launches new offensive against Kurdish rebels in Iraq

Turkey has launched a new air and ground offensive against Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq, defence minister Hulusi Akar said. Commando units and special forces, backed by unmanned aerial vehicles and attack helicopters involved in Operation Claw-Lock, are targeting Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) hideouts in the Metina, Zap and Avashin-Basyan regions of northern Iraq, Akar said on April 18. The defence ministry said the operation, which started April 17 night, came after it was found that the PKK was planning a large-scale attack against Turkey. The operation’s planning had been reported in the Turkish media for weeks. It was launched two days after a rare visit to Turkey by the prime minister of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, Masrour Barzani, suggesting that he had been briefed on Ankara’s plans. Barzani said after his talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that he welcomed “expanding cooperation to promote security and stability” in northern Iraq. The Kurdistan Regional Government has an uneasy relationship with the PKK group, whose presence complicates the region’s lucrative trade ties with Turkey. Turkey routinely carries out attacks in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, where the PKK has bases and training camps in Sinjar and on the mountainous border with Turkey. Click here to read... [24]

Israel’s Government Faces Collapse as Arab Party Threatens to Quit Over Jerusalem Clashes

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s government faces another challenge to its survival, as a rocket fired late April 18 from Gaza raised fears of a new conflict and clashes between Israeli police and Palestinians in and near Jerusalem’s most sensitive holy site threaten the fragile ruling coalition. In the past, Israeli forces have responded to Gaza rocket fire with airstrikes. Clashes in Jerusalem contributed to an 11-day deadly conflict between Israel and Hamas last year. Meanwhile, the Israeli ruling coalition faced a potential mutiny from an independent Arab party, which warned it would quit the government if violence around the Al Aqsa mosque continues. The Islamist Ra’am party suspended its membership in the coalition to protest the government’s handling of the clashes at the Al Aqsa mosque compound and what they say are Israeli government policies that have degraded Muslim control over the holy site in favor of Jews. Those clashes have left nearly 200 injured amid heightened tensions because of a rare overlapping of religious holidays. Israel’s government denies it has changed the status quo at the holy site, in which only Muslims can pray and non-Muslims can visit the compound. On April 18, Ra’am chief Mansour Abbas said his party was closely monitoring the government’s actions in Jerusalem. Click here to read... [25]

North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Oversees Tactical Weapons Test Near His Mansion

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the test-firing of what the country’s state media said was a new type of tactical guided weapon aimed at boosting its nuclear capabilities, following a series of provocative missile launches that allow Pyongyang to diversify its arsenal. Two projectiles were launched from North Korea’s east coast around 6 p.m. local time on April 16, flying about 68 miles and reaching an altitude of about 15 miles, South Korea’s military said. Seoul usually sends alerts about Pyongyang’s missile launches minutes after they occur. But South Korea didn’t publicize the latest test until April 17 morning, hours after North Korean state media published a brief report of the prior day’s launch. The flight data may suggest one reason for the immediate silence: The projectiles didn’t fly particularly far or high compared with the North’s other launches. From a more powerful intercontinental ballistic missile to hypersonic ones, North Korea has been displaying new weapons alongside its nuclear bombs and submarines. Pyongyang’s state media said its new weapons system improves the firepower of front-line long-range artillery units and enhances the “efficiency in operation of tactical nukes.” The report didn’t specify the precise type of weapon that had been tested. Click here to read... [26]

China, India, money woes, US conspiracy claims: the issues keeping Pakistan’s new PM busy

Time is not on the side of the new coalition government that took office in Pakistan this week following the chaotic ousting of Imran Khan as prime minister. With a general election expected to be called by year’s end, Khan’s newly anointed successor, Shehbaz Sharif, has said his immediate priorities are stabilising the country’s shaky economy and fixing its damaged diplomatic relations with “all-weather friend” China, as well as partners in the Middle East and an increasingly hostile West. He also announced that construction would be sped up on the US$60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – a flagship project of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative that was first put forward in 2013. In his acceptance speech to parliament on April 11, Sharif said that the biggest challenge facing his administration would be living up to extraordinarily high public expectations following the no-confidence vote that led to Khan being deposed. Sharif built a reputation as Pakistan’s Mr. Fix-It in the decade up to 2018, when he led the government of populous Punjab province and was famed for his day-to-day hands-on management of key projects and programmes – often seen dressed in a safari suit, panama hat, and Wellington boots when required. Click here to read... [27]

US to host Asean leaders in mid-May, with focus likely to be on rising powers of China

US President Joe Biden will meet in mid-May with the leaders of Southeast Asian nations, with a likely focus on the rising power of China, the host country announced on April 16. The summit, originally scheduled for March, “will demonstrate the United States’ enduring commitment to Asean,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. “It is a top priority for the Biden-Harris Administration to serve as a strong, reliable partner in Southeast Asia,” the statement said. The summit, originally set for March 28 and 29 before being delayed without a new date, will now take place on May 12 and 13. The meeting was postponed amid reports that the leaders of some Asean members had scheduling conflicts, and as the Ukraine crisis continued to deepen. The United States has long said that strengthening its ties to Asia was a foreign policy priority. On March 29, Biden met at the White House with a key Asean member, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore, and said he wanted to ensure that the region remains “free and open” – a reference to what the US sees as attempts by rising power China to dominate international trade routes. Click here to read... [28]

Analysis: Xi gives thumbs-down to Shanghai, distancing closest aide

Shanghai is now on the edge of an abyss as it struggles to contain the outbreak. It accounts for an overwhelming majority of new cases in mainland China, putting a stain on Xi's tough "zero COVID" policy. If the outbreak reaches other parts of the country, it could dash Xi's hopes of touting his administration's "great victory" against the coronavirus at the party's national congress this autumn. That would be devastating for Li Qiang, a candidate to become China's next premier and a politician who has regarded himself as Xi's closest aide. Chatter increased further when Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, China's sole female Politburo member who oversees China's anti-coronavirus measures, made a visit to Shanghai. Released photos of the visit show Sun conveying Xi's orders and Li Qiang, who is technically on par in rank with Sun as a fellow Politburo member, listening humbly and standing at attention. Li Qiang had been rumored to be on the shortlist to succeed Li Keqiang but instead has become a hostage to one of those unexpected factors, the Shanghai lockdown. If Li Qiang fails to bring the COVID outbreak under control at an early date, his career will take a significant hit. Someone will have to take political responsibility for the disaster in China's commercial hub. Despite its monopoly on power, even the party does secretly care about public opinion. Click here to read... [29]

South Korea seeks to attend Quad summit as observer in May

South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has unofficially approached the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue about attending the group's upcoming summit in Japan as an observer, a high-ranking government official told Nikkei, as the incoming leader pursues stronger ties with Tokyo and Washington. The Quad, which consists of the U.S., Japan, India and Australia, serves as a counterweight to growing Chinese clout in the Indo-Pacific region. Its leaders plan to meet during a trip by U.S. President Joe Biden to Japan in late May. The attendance of Yoon, who will take office on May 10, will mark the first time South Korea participates in a Quad gathering. He will also consider holding separate two- and three-way talks with Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Yoon has repeatedly called for a thaw in South Korea-Japan relations, which deteriorated under outgoing President Moon Jae-in. But historical issues between the two countries remain an emotionally charged topic. Logistics may stand in the way, given that Yoon will have taken office just weeks before. If Biden chooses to visit South Korea before Japan, Yoon may prioritize holding a two-way summit there over participating in the Quad gathering. Click here to read... [30]

Medical

China was the world’s biggest Covid-19 vaccine exporter. Not any more

Six months ago, China was the biggest exporter of Covid-19 vaccines to developing countries. That was partly down to its huge production capacity, but also because other major vaccine manufacturing countries were less focused on exports. Most of the Chinese vaccines were supplied through bilateral commercial deals and priority was given to Asia, where Beijing wants to expand its soft power. But China also ramped up donations from late last year – either through bilateral arrangements or the World Health Organization-backed Covax Facility – as the United States too began to donate more doses after its domestic needs were met. But this year, the picture has changed. China’s vaccine exports – both commercial deals and donations – have dropped sharply since January. Chinese vaccines no longer make up the bulk of supplies in low- and middle-income countries, according to the Unicef Covid-19 Vaccine Market Dashboard and other major vaccine trackers. One reason for this is the availability of other vaccines with better efficacy data than the Chinese ones, according to analysts. However, a slump in vaccine exports across the board in March also points to a new situation: developing countries now have more than enough vaccines but their vaccination rates remain relatively low. Click here to read... [31]

China doubles down on zero-Covid policy ahead of Communist Party congress

China’s health minister has pledged the toughest measures yet to prevent a major outbreak of Covid-19, ruling out any relaxations ahead of this year’s 20th Communist Party national congress. In a front-page article published on April 08 by Study Times, Ma Xiaowei urged the country to stick to the “dynamic zero-Covid” policy and take a clear-cut stand against “erroneous” thoughts of “coexisting with the virus”. The bottom line was to prevent a large-scale rebound in cases and consolidate the hard-won results of pandemic control to welcome the opening of the five-yearly congress, expected in the second half of the year, he said in the commentary for the Central Party School journal. Ma’s article comes as domestic concerns have been raised over whether China’s hardline dynamic zero policy is sustainable in the face of more transmissible but milder variants like Omicron. China’s past successes in containing dozens of outbreaks – including the more transmissible but milder Omicron variant – are considered proof of the superiority of its political system and how the party and its leader President Xi Jinping prioritise people and life. Click here to read... [32]

Date for global Covid-19 summit set

The White House announced on April 18 that the US, Germany, Belize, Indonesia and Senegal will host the second global Covid-19 summit in May. While the pandemic has been pushed from the headlines in recent months, the Biden administration said a summit is necessary to “bring solutions to vaccinate the world, save lives now, and build better health security.” The virtual summit will take place on May 12. Belize, as chair of the Caribbean Community; Germany, holding the G7 Presidency; Indonesia, holding the G20 Presidency; and Senegal as African Union Chair, will co-host the event. “The emergence and spread of new variants, like Omicron, have reinforced the need for a strategy aimed at controlling Covid-19 worldwide,” read a statement from the White House. “Together, we can mitigate the impact of Covid-19 and protect those at the highest risk with vaccinations, testing, and treatments, actions to minimize disruption to routine health services, and through support for the ACT-Accelerator multilateral mechanism,” the latter a reference to a World Health Organization (WHO) program for financing vaccines and treatment. US President Joe Biden hosted a similar summit back in September, in which he called on world leaders to meet the WHO’s goal of vaccinating 70% of the world’s population. Click here to read... [33]