Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 28 March 2022 - 03 April 2022

Economic

Iran already pumping oil at pre-sanctions level – minister

Iranian oil production has bounced back to levels achieved before the US quit an agreement on the country’s nuclear programme and re-imposed tough sanctions in 2018, according to the country’s oil minister. Output of crude and condensate has rebounded to more than 3.8 million barrels a day, matching pre-sanctions’ levels, Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji told media outlets this week. The country also has ramped up exports of crude oil, petrochemicals and refined fuels, finding dependable customers despite Washington’s threats to sanction nations that do business with Tehran. “By taking effective measures in onshore and offshore oilfields – drilling new wells, repairing wells, rebuilding and modernizing facilities, and oil collection centres – the current oil production capacity has reached before the sanctions, and we have no problem in performance and this amount of production,” Owji said. The news comes weeks after Owji claimed that Iran had managed to boost exports despite the “toughest sanctions” and “without waiting for the outcome of the Vienna talks.” He was referring to negotiations to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program, and said that by achieving output and export gains, the country had increased its bargaining power. Click here to read... [2]

Why Biden’s release of US oil reserves won’t end pain at the pump

When Joe Biden announced that the United States would release more than 180 million barrels of oil from its strategic petroleum reserve over the next six months, the US president hailed it as an historic move that would lower fuel prices in the US.The price at the pump has surged amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has led the US and other nations to bar oil and gas imports from Moscow and driven concerns over global energy supplies with inventories low and new production capacity limited.Beginning early this week, Europe, Japan, and others are expected to join the US in releasing more from their reserves, adding about 30 to 50 million barrels to the world market over the same six-month period.But while the Ukraine conflict pushes Biden and other world leaders to dip into their stockpiles, experts say the actual effect for consumers will be limited – and higher prices and more disruptions lay ahead. That is because with global supply-and-demand dictating prices, the barrels of Russian oil coming off the market will far exceed what is being put back in by the US and other nations. “The Biden administration, by now, realises that as long as we have a Russia problem, oil prices are going higher,” said Robert McNally, president of the Washington-based consultancy Rapidan Energy Group. Click here to read... [3]

Ukraine war: Russia says foreign currency can still buy gas amid Putin’s rouble payment threat

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree March 31 demanding payment for natural gas in roubles but appeared to temper the order by allowing dollar and euro payments through a designated bank, the latest twist over energy supplies that Europe relies on to heat homes and generate electricity. The measure got a cautious reception from European leaders who insist payment will remain in euros and dollars and want to see the fine print of how the decree will be implemented.Countries deemed “unfriendly” for imposing sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine can continue to pay in foreign currency through a Russian bank that will then convert the money into roubles, according to a Kremlin decree published by state media on March 31. It came a day after the leaders of Italy and Germany said they received assurances from Putin about gas supplies. Putin talked tougher, saying Russia will start accepting rouble payments from April 01 and contracts will be stopped if buyers don’t sign up to the new conditions, including opening rouble accounts in Russian banks. “If such payments are not made, we will consider this a default on the part of buyers, with all the ensuing consequences. Nobody sells us anything for free, and we are not going to do charity either – that is, existing contracts will be stopped,” he said in televised remarks. Click here to read... [4]

Berlin Takes Control of Gazprom’s German Business

The German government will temporarily take control of a key unit of Russian state-owned natural gas giant Gazprom PJSC in Germany in a bid to secure gas deliveries, as tensions grow between Russia and Europe over energy supplies. Economy minister Robert Habeck said April 04 that the Federal Network Agency would become a trustee of Gazprom Germania GmbH until Sept. 30. The move comes after Gazprom on April 01 said that it was exiting its business in Germany without elaborating. “The arrangement of the trust administration serves to protect public safety and order and to maintain the security of supply,” Mr. Habeck said at a press conference. “This step is urgently necessary.” Mr. Habeck said the move had been triggered by Gazprom’s failure to notify the government of a change of ownership of Gazprom Germania as well as uncertainty as to who now owned the assets. Gazprom didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Gazprom Germania operates critical infrastructure in Germany, including gas storage, trading and transporting of natural gas. Mr. Habeck said that gas supply was currently guaranteed. Gazprom has said in recent days that exports to Europe are continuing in line with contracts. Click here to read... [5]

Japan will not abandon Sakhalin-2 LNG stake, Kishida says

Japan will not abandon its stake in the Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Russia as it is essential to energy security, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on April 01, his clearest comments yet on Tokyo's plans for the development. The Ukraine crisis has put Japan's involvement in the Sakhalin-2 project and similar ones in Russia in sharp focus since Western oil majors have said they would pull out in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia calls its actions there a "special military operation." While resource poor Japan has been ramping up sanctions against Russia, Tokyo has repeatedly said that Russian LNG is essential to energy security."Japan has a stake in Sakhalin-2, which is contributing to securing long-term, stable and low-priced supply of LNG. It is an extremely important project for Japan's energy security," Kishida told parliament."It is not our policy to withdraw," Kishida said, adding his government would continue seeking ways to reduce Japan's dependence on Russian energy sources. Japanese leading trading houses Mitsui & Co and Mitsubishi Corp own stakes of 12.5% and 10% respectively in the Sakhalin-2 project, from which Shell has announced plans to exit. Russia represents 4% of Japan's crude oil imports and 9% of LNG imports, making Moscow a vital energy supplier for Japan. Click here to read... [6]

US dollar at risk of losing dominance, Wall Street bank warns

The US dollar is dealing with some of the same challenges that the British pound faced in the early 1900s, before it went into decline, Goldman Sachs said in a research note released on April 01. The Wall Street bank explained the risk as due to worries about the power the dollar grants the US.The challenges that Goldman Sachs named include the fact that the US has a relatively small share of global trade compared to the dominance of its currency in global payments. Another issue is that the country has a deteriorating “net foreign asset position,” with rising foreign debts. In addition, the nation faces geopolitical problems, such as the conflict in Ukraine. The Goldman Sachs economists also said the nation’s large debts due to the fact that it is a big importer of goods could be a particular problem. The British pound, which was once the world’s reserve currency, was displaced by the US dollar in the middle of the 20th century. International investors were more reluctant to hold pounds after Britain amassed huge debts in World War II, the bank’s analysts noted. “If a reserve currency issuers’ debt is allowed to grow relative to GDP, eventually foreigners may grow reluctant to hold more of it,” they wrote. Click here to read... [7]

Russia to see record capital inflow this year – reports

Russia’s balance of payments surplus could hit a historic high this year, amounting to $200-$300 billion, business news outlet RBC reported on April 04. Economists polled by RBC have predicted record capital inflows into the country, despite the tightening Western sanctions. They pointed to major factors behind the inflow, such as the increase in the value of Russian energy exports, and a reduction in merchandise imports to Russia by up to 50%. “The key driver of the Russian balance of payments surplus [hydrocarbon exports] still looks confident,” the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in its review, seen by RBC. According to a Bloomberg analysis, Russia will get an estimated $321 billion in energy exports revenue in 2022, marking a surge of more than a third compared to last year. That’s despite the huge discounts the country provides. The Russian Ministry of Finance said last week that, on average, Russian Urals oil cost over $89 per barrel in March, which is a 40% rise year-on-year. The IIF said that the number of oil tankers moored in Russian ports awaiting departure is only slightly less than in the same period in previous yearsClick here to read... [8]

Goldman Sachs bets on big Chinese stock upside despite dour 4.5 per cent GDP growth forecast and client scepticism

Goldman Sachs is betting that Chinese stocks will deliver a 23 to 29 per cent upside this year, after its bottom-of-the-pile ranking last year, but clients have some reservations following widespread Covid-19 lockdowns. Scepticism of China’s ability to achieve its 5.5 per cent gross domestic product target has risen among the investment firm’s mainland clients, including private equity funds, hedge funds and asset managers. These clients have slashed their GDP growth targets for the year, as China battles its worst Covid-19 outbreak since 2020. “A majority of local clients think [around] 4 per cent GDP growth is probably more realistic,” said Goldman analysts including Maggie Wei in a note published on Friday. “Having said that, local clients have mixed views on whether Chinese policymakers would tone down or change the GDP growth target this year.” Even as doubts about China’s challenging growth target pile up, amid the lack of concrete policy easing and global stagflation woes, the US bank remains bullish on China. It forecast a 23 per cent upside for the MSCI China Index over the next 12 months, after a disastrous 22 per cent slump last year as the worst-performing stock benchmark. For the CSI 300, it expected a 29 per cent upside over the next 12 months. Click here to read... [9]

China to bring down audit barrier in long-running US listing row

In recent years, US regulators have increased scrutiny of the accounting standards of these companies amid allegations of ties to the military and use of forced labour in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. China has long denied US securities regulators the ability to inspect the financial audits of its US-listed companies, saying they contain state secrets. The tensions culminated in 2019 with the US Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which requires foreign companies listed in the US comply with audit inspection rules under the auspices of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) or face delisting within three years. In the aftermath, US-listed Chinese companies were hit by bruising sell-offs. In March, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) identified 11 Chinese companies – including Baidu, Weibo and BeiGene and Yum China – liable under the law. In the statement on April 02, the CSRC said the proposed rules offered more guidance on protecting state secrets. In practice, it is rare that companies need to provide documents that contain state secrets and sensitive information, according to the CSRC. But should the situation arise, the burden of ensuring information security would fall on the Chinese companies, it said. SEC chairman Gary Gensler and CSRC chairman Yi Huiman have held three online meetings since August to discuss the prospect of cooperating on audit regulations, the commission said on March 31. Click here to read... [10]

Chinese industrial park to be built in Kabul New City

Chinese firms and businessmen are eyeing more opportunities in Afghanistan, with an industrial park to be established in the Kabul New City, providing more jobs and helping train local Afghan workers, the Global Times has learned. Since the Taliban returned to power, about 200 Chinese businessmen have arrived in Afghanistan, exploring investment chances, a staffer of China Town in Kabul told the Global Times in an exclusive interview.In the next step, a Chinese industrial park will be set up in the Kabul New City, which will train more Afghan professional workers and help promote stability and economic security there. "Building an industrial park in Afghanistan will reduce the security costs of enterprises. As Afghans return and investment continues to grow, the market potential of about 40 million is huge," said the staffer of China Town in Kabul. Since the Taliban came into power in August and US troops left the country, Afghans has the chance to determine their own destiny. But reconstruction is hampered by lack of funds and Western sanctions. Now, China is helping Afghanistan to recover through various types of support, analysts said. China held the third Foreign Ministers' Meeting among the Neighbouring Countries of Afghanistan in Tunxi, East China's Anhui Province, on March 31- April 01. Click here to read... [11]

Devices equipped with Harmony OS expected to exceed 560 million units: agency

Following Chinese telecom equipment giant Huawei's latest release of its 2021 annual report, financial agencies expected that devices equipped with Harmony OS may be able to exceed the critical 16 percent line of active devices worldwide between 2022 and 2023, representing about 560 million units. The development of Harmony OS digital ecology is also in line with expectations.According to a research report issued by PingAn Securities on March 29, the expansion of Harmony OS is in line with expectations, laying the foundation for subsequent system and software ecology development.The number of devices equipped with Harmony OS exceeded 220 million units as of the end of 2021, becoming the fastest growing mobile terminal operating system across the globe, according to Huawei's annual report. The number of shipped third-party devices connected with Harmony OS Connect and the ecological system reached more than 115 million units, totalling more than 330 million units. The total number slightly exceeded the target plan set by the company in 2021. The report noted that devices equipped with Harmony OS may cross the 16 percent mark of active devices worldwide (about 560 million units) from 2022 to 2023, noting that Harmony OS will be able to survive in the short term, but the long-term development will still depend on the expansion of use scenarios and markets. Click here to read... [12]

Japan’s ODA to China ends after 40 years and 3.6 trillion yen

Japan’s official development assistance (ODA) to China ended at the end of March after more than 40 years, bringing down the curtain on 3.6 trillion yen ($29 billion) of aid over the four decades. While Japanese ODA to China has supported the nation’s growth and strengthened the relationship between the two countries, some questioned the need over the years to continue the assistance. Others criticized the lack of transparency over the aid provided by Japan. However viewed, the assistance had gradually wound down over the years, as relations between the two countries cooled and the Chinese economy boomed. Japan’s ODA to China started in 1979. Some said that this was in response to Beijing’s declaration to abandon demands for wartime compensation under the 1972 bilateral joint communique. According to the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Japan’s breakdown of ODA to China is nearly 160 billion yen of grant aid, provision of funds with no obligation of repayment, around 3.3 trillion yen in loans, and about 190 billion yen of technical cooperation. In the early days of Japan’s ODA to China, the assistance was mostly provided to support infrastructure construction such as ports or power generation facilities. Click here to read... [13]

From war to nuclear warheads, geopolitical risk hits boardrooms

When corporate chiefs sit down to formulate strategies for the coming years, they will now have to factor in words such as "war" and "nuclear-weapons use. "The peace that companies took for granted in the post-Cold War world is no more. Companies have to navigate a world filled with geopolitical risk. U.S. Federal Reserve Board economists Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello have compiled a Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index with an algorithm that counts the frequency of articles related to geopolitical risks in leading international newspapers published in the U.S., the U.K. and Canada, such as The New York Times, the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal. Six categories of words are measured, including "geopolitical risk," "threat of war," "airstrike" and "terrorist act." The latest Geopolitical Risk Index, as of Feb. 1, stood at a score of 178.90, a 40-point increase from the month before. It is the highest since April 2003, in the height of the Iraq War, when the GPR Index was 255.78.The index reached 512.53 after the 9-11 attacks in 2011 and 379.25 ahead of the Gulf War in 1991. BlackRock's Geopolitical Risk Indicator has identified "Russia-NATO conflict" as the biggest risk since February. Meanwhile, the resurgence of the coronavirus is not even in the top 10 anymore. Click here to read... [14]

Chinese firm regains control of DR Congo copper mine after agreeing to reach solution with government over royalty disputes

China Molybdenum (CMOC) has regained control of its massive Tenke Fungurume copper and cobalt mine after the Democratic Republic of Congo withdrew a case it had filed against the Chinese mining giant. The two have agreed to settle their dispute outside court, saying they would appoint an “internationally recognised third party to conduct an assessment for a definitive solution” to their dispute over royalty payments, a move that will probably ensure more revenue for the DRC in future. Gecamines, a Congolese state-owned commodity trading and mining company, which holds 20 per cent of the Tenke mine, had sued the Chinese miner, accusing it of withholding information and for not declaring thousands of tonnes of reserves at the site, a move that allegedly denied Kinshasa much-needed funds. But on March 29, DRC Prime Minister Sama Lukonde suspended court proceedings against the Chinese mining company. China Moly acquired its controlling stake in Tenke Fungurume in 2016 for US$2.65 billion from US mining firm Freeport-McMoRan and increased its stake to 80 per cent for US$1.14 billion in 2019. Although the DRC produces two-thirds of the global supply of cobalt – an essential component of electric vehicle batteries – the government says the country has not benefited from the resources. Click here to read... [15]

Strategic

Release of Ukraine Intelligence Represents New Front in U.S. Information War With Russia

As Russian troops amassed at Ukraine’s border in early December, White House officials pored over multiple versions of a highly classified map that detailed Moscow’s burgeoning military presence. The administration provided a version of the map and accompanying text to the Washington Post, which published it online Dec. 3, just days before a tense phone call between President Biden and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The release of the map—a blend of secrets gathered by U.S. spy agencies and commercially available satellite images—kicked off a virtually unprecedented effort by the Biden administration to use U.S. intelligence to shape the battlefield of Europe’s bloodiest conflict in decades. The new approach to public intelligence sharing has involved declassifying a cascade of secrets normally reserved for top policy makers: updates on Russian troop movements; detailed allegations that Moscow would stage a pretext for its invasion; even, last week, reports of growing tension between Mr. Putin and his generals. White House officials call the strategy “downgrade and share”—with “downgrade” referring to lowering the classification level of U.S. documents or data. Citing those successes, some see “downgrade and share” as foreshadowing future uses of intelligence in international crises. “Future conflicts are going to be shaped, instigated and deterred by releases of information beforehand.” Click here to read... [16]

America’s Declining Military

The Pentagon is seeking $773 billion for fiscal 2023, and spending on national defense reaches $813 billion when other accounts are included. This sounds large, and Mr. Biden is pitching it as a big increase over his request last year. But even defense officials say the Pentagon would see only a 1.5% real increase over last year’s funding after inflation. Defense spending will still be about 3.1% of the economy, close to post-Cold War lows and heading lower over the next decade. The Administration calls China a “pacing challenge,” and Russia an “acute threat,” and it touts $130 billion for research and development, including crucial efforts on artificial intelligence and 5G applications. Also welcome is $24.7 billion for missile defense, including a badly needed $892 million to defend Guam from Chinese missiles, and $27.6 billion for space capabilities. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative would get $6.1 billion. But the overall budget picture is that the Biden team is betting on weapons that don’t yet exist for a war they hope arrives on someone else’s watch. They want to save money now in order to spend on what they say will be a more modern force in a decade. To this end, the 298-ship U.S. Navy would buy only nine ships next year while retiring 24. The fleet would shrink to 280 ships in 2027, even as the Navy says it needs a fleet of 500 to defeat China in a conflict. Click here to read... [17]

Biden’s Indo-Pacific power play stymied by lack of trade authority

The U.S. is seeking to reassert itself in the Indo-Pacific by forming a new economic framework as a bulwark against a rising China. But President Joe Biden currently lacks a powerful trade negotiating tool that can make this vision a reality. His conundrum is evident in an Indo-Pacific strategy laid out by the White House in February. The White House promises high labour and environmental standards, open cross-border data flows and secure supply chains as part of a new Indo-Pacific economic framework (IPEF) proposed by Biden at the East Asia Summit in October. The U.S. envisions a regional pact that "could be even more robust in some ways than the traditional free trade agreement," Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said during a November trip to Japan. But what exactly the IPEF will entail remains unclear, and that's because he does not have the Trade Promotion Authority that lets him negotiate trade pacts with other countries. The U.S. Constitution gives Congress sole authority to set tariffs and regulate international commerce. But Congress can temporarily grant the president power to do so by granting him the fast-track negotiating ability, known as the Trade Promotion Authority. Click here to read... [18]

Biden administration to scrap nuclear cruise missile programme

The U.S. has decided to discontinue development of a new nuclear cruise missile, Nikkei has learned. The administration of former President Donald Trump had laid out plans to develop the new weapon to enhance U.S. nuclear capabilities. The Biden administration, however, determined that the U.S. not only maintained sufficient capability to deter Russia and China without the new missile, but also could add momentum to the flagging nuclear disarmament movement by scrapping the cruise missile project. A senior defense official told Nikkei that plans for the new missile had been withdrawn. The U.S. Defense Department will release its full "Nuclear Posture Review," a set of guidelines for nuclear weapons policy, perhaps as early as the end of this month. The focus of the review has been how the U.S. would handle development of sea-launched nuclear cruise missiles and low-yield nuclear warheads with less explosive power. Both were pursued by the Trump administration to deter Russia and China and are intended to be installed primarily on submarines. The weapons are intended for use in limited attacks on enemy military bases or critical facilities, rather than major strikes on urban centres. Click here to read... [19]

EU warns China against 'interfering with Russian sanctions'

EU leaders warned China against interfering with the West's efforts to sanction Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, in a summit on Friday that Brussels characterized as "not business as usual." The war in Ukraine dominated the virtual summit, the first meeting between Beijing leaders and their EU counterparts since the conflict began. While the EU side tried to press China to cooperate in pressuring Moscow, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a swipe at the pressure campaign against China, urging Brussels to adopt an "independent policy" toward Beijing. From the EU side, European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and EU foreign policy Chief Josep Borrell took part. "We made very clear that China should, if not support, at least not interfere with our sanctions," von der Leyen told a news conference following the summit. Xi said it was "deeply regrettable that the situation in Ukraine has come to where it is today," according to a Foreign Ministry readout."The international community should keep creating favourable conditions and environment for the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and make room for political settlement, rather than add fuel to the fire and heighten tensions," the president saidClick here to read... [20]

NATO should have been dissolved in 1991 – China

China believes NATO should have been dissolved after the USSR, which it was created to contain, no longer existed, the Foreign Ministry explained on April 01. Spokesman Zhao Lijian lamented the fact that instead the US-led military bloc expanded and cornered Russia, eventually triggering the present bloodshed in Ukraine. “As a product of the Cold War, NATO should have become history when the Soviet Union disintegrated,” he said during a daily press conference on April 01, when asked about remarks on NATO’s role as a US geopolitical tool made by his Russian counterpart, Maria Zakharova. Zhao said that NATO expanded eastwards in Europe for decades, in violation of promises made to the Soviet leadership. This pushed Russia “into a corner step by step,” so ultimately, NATO was “the initiator and biggest promoter of the Ukraine crisis” on behalf of the US, he stated, adding that the organization should reflect on what exactly it contributes to European security. Moscow cited the threat posed by NATO’s creeping expansion into Ukraine as the key reason why it attacked the country in late February. Beijing agreed with the justification, even as it criticized the use of military force as the method of resolving the situation. Click here to read... [21]

Chinese military stepping up night drills to counter US, analysts say as state TV airs footage

Chinese state television has shown footage of day-and-night drills by the People’s Liberation Army along the coasts of the East China and South China seas, which defence analysts said had been stepped up this year to counter the US Navy’s increasing activities in the region. A PLA Navy flotilla led by the Type 052D destroyer Zibo and Type 054A frigate Yang Zhou this month conducted a two-day live-fire exercise in the East China Sea, state broadcaster CCTV reported on March 30. The exercises included underwater reconnaissance, and air-defence and ship-to-ship strikes, CCTV said.Another day-and-night drill, involving a Type 071 amphibious transport dock, took place off the coast of Guangdong, close to Hainan Island. Marines drove several ZBD-05 amphibious infantry fighting vehicles and ZTD-05 amphibious assault vehicles to land on the island at night, according to CCTV on March 29. Defence analysts said the PLA’s navy and air force had enhanced night training this year because the Americans had stepped up reconnaissance and other military activities in the region. Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at Taiwan’s Naval Academy in Kaohsiung, said the PLA Navy’s activities in the Yellow, East China and South China seas included nearly 100 night drills last year, including 70 between midnight and dawn, compared with 30 at night in 2020, with 11 between midnight and dawn. Click here to read... [22]

NATO divided on military aid for Ukraine – media

NATO allies strongly disagree about the extent of military aid the US-led bloc should provide to Ukraine and the prospects of talks with Russia, Bloomberg reported on March 28, quoting numerous sources and documents.Some members were said to have been “adamant” about wishing to avoid a direct war with Russia, and even suggested that President Vladimir Putin might deploy weapons of mass destruction if they armed Ukraine too heavily. A French official was quoted as saying that sending tanks and aircraft would “pour oil on the fire.” A document was described by Bloomberg as stating that some Western European countries were of the view that weapons shipments to Kiev should be limited, “due to fears that events could escalate out of control.” In contrast, the leaders of the UK, the Baltic states, and most Eastern European countries called on allies to send more armaments to Ukraine, including “anti-aircraft capabilities,” the report said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told PBS News Hour on March 28 that Moscow would deploy its nuclear arsenal only when there was a threat to the existence of Russia as a country. Another reported subject of internal debate is direct dialogue with Moscow. Click here to read... [23]

US says Israel free to act against Iran

Washington’s ambassador to Israel has said that a renewed nuclear pact with Iran will not bar the close US ally from taking action to “protect” itself, as negotiators attempt to revive the 2015 JCPOA agreement between Tehran and world powers. Speaking to Israel’s Channel 12, on March 31, Ambassador Tom Nides outlined that the United States does not expect Tel Aviv to “sit quietly and not do anything” should a final deal be struck with Iran. “We’ve been very clear about this. If we have a deal, the Israelis’ hands are not tied. If we don’t have a deal, the Israelis’ hands are certainly not tied,” the envoy said, adding that whether or not an agreement is reached, “Israel can do and take whatever actions they need to take to protect the state of Israel.” While Nides argued that President Joe Biden is doing “whatever he can to make sure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon” using “a diplomatic channel,” he appeared to give tacit approval for Israeli military action against the Islamic Republic even with an agreement in place to restrain its atomic programme. The US envoy went on to state that Israel has been kept informed of the ongoing nuclear talks, saying Tel Aviv knows “exactly what is going on,” even if officials are at times displeased with the direction of the negotiations. Click here to read... [24]

Climate change: Greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025, deep cuts needed by end of decade to avoid catastrophic impact, says UN panel

Greenhouse gas emissions must peak within a few years and countries must implement deep across-the-board cuts to achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid catastrophic impact from climate change, according to scientists. This means global emissions must peak before 2025 “at the latest”, reduce by 43 per cent by the end of the decade and reach net zero by the early 2050s, they said in the latest report by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released on April 04. Even if a less ambitious 2 degrees of warming is to be achieved, reaching a peak in emissions by 2025, reducing them by a quarter by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2070 will be necessary, the scientists said. Human activities have already caused the planet’s average temperature to rise by 1.1 degrees since 1850. “It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees,” IPCC Working Group III co-chair Jim Skea said in a statement. “Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”Average annual global greenhouse gas emissions have reached their highest levels between 2010 to 2019, even though the rate of growth has slowed. Click here to read... [25]

Turkey, a mediator in Ukraine, mends its own ties with neighbours

The sight of Russian and Ukrainian negotiators meeting in Istanbul for direct peace talks highlights the position in which Turkey finds itself as a perceived neutral side in the war in Ukraine. That balance is a continuation of a policy that during the last year has resulted in a rapprochement with a variety of countries in the region with which Turkey has strained or non-existent relations. Ankara’s diplomatic initiatives have included efforts to mend ties with adversaries including Armenia, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Relations have improved across the board. Turkey had long severed ties with its neighbour Armenia; now officials are meeting, and direct flights have resumed. The 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Riyadh’s Istanbul consulate instantly soured Saudi-Turkish relations, but the two sides are now looking to put that behind them, and their foreign ministers met last week. The deputy foreign ministers of Egypt and Turkey held talks for the second time in 2021 last September in Ankara, while Israeli President Isaac Herzog made a particularly notable visit to the Turkish capital this month, meeting with Erdoğan. However, it is the improvement in the relationship with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that is perhaps most interesting. Click here to read... [26]

Tunisia’s president dissolves parliament, extending power grab

Tunisia’s President Kais Saied has announced on state TV that he is dissolving the country’s parliament, eight months after suspending it in a July power grab.“Today, at this historic moment, I announce the dissolution of the Assembly of Representatives of the people, to preserve the state and its institutions,” he said on March 30. He made the announcement at a meeting of the National Security Council, hours after parliamentarians held a plenary session online and voted through a bill against his “exceptional measures”. Following the online session, Tunisia’s justice minister, Leila Jeffal, asked the attorney general to open a judicial investigation against members of a suspended parliament on charges of “conspiring against state security”, local media said. Saied denounced parliament’s move as a “coup attempt” and said those responsible had “betrayed” the nation. Tunisian parliamentarians voted on March 30 to repeal presidential decrees suspending their chamber and giving Kais Saied near-total power, openly defying him in an online session, although he dismissed their meeting as illegal.The former law professor, elected in 2019 amid public anger against the political class, on July 25 last year sacked the government, froze the assembly and seized wide-ranging powers. Click here to read... [27]

How Pakistan’s political crisis could play out in the coming days

Pakistan’s Supreme Court is looking into the legality of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s unexpected move over the weekend to block a parliamentary vote against him and then call for a snap general election. The deputy speaker of parliament, a member of Khan’s party, threw out the no-confidence motion that Khan had widely been expected to lose, ruling that it was part of a foreign conspiracy and unconstitutional. The court’s five-member bench, headed by the country’s chief justice, has adjourned proceedings until April 06. Legal experts say that how the court rules on Khan’s move could have major implications for democracy in Pakistan, where no prime minister has yet fulfilled a full term and where the military has ruled for nearly half of the country’s history. Here are some possible outcomes of the crisis: A court decision against the move to block the vote of no-confidence could overturn subsequent decisions made by the government, including the dissolution of the assembly and the calling of elections within 90 days. A court ruling against Khan also opens the door for legal action against the 69-year-old and members of his party, as opponents say he is guilty of subverting the constitution. Click here to read... [28]

Sri Lanka opposition rejects president’s unity government offer

Sri Lanka’s opposition has rejected an invitation from the president to form a unity government, urging his resignation over the country’s worsening shortages of food, fuel and medicines. The opposition’s demand on April 04 came as anti-government protests continued throughout the country over its worst economic crisis in memory and deepening mistrust in President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s leadership. Earlier same day, the president’s office said he “invites all political parties represented in the parliament to come together to accept ministerial portfolios in order to find solutions to this national crisis”. The largest opposition political alliance – the United People’s Power or Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) – rejected the proposal. “The people of this country want Gotabaya and the entire Rajapaksa family to go and we can’t go against the people’s will and we can’t work alongside the corrupt,” top SJB official Ranjith Madduma Bandara told The Associated Press news agency. SJB has 54 MPs in the 225-member parliament. The left-wing People’s Liberation Front (JVP) also responded by urging Rajapaksa and his once-popular and powerful family to immediately step down. The main minority opposition party, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), joined the voices dismissing the idea. Click here to read... [29]

China to back military-ruled Myanmar regardless of situation

China says it will back neighbour Myanmar “no matter how the situation changes,” in the latest show of unequivocal support for the ruling military that seized power last year. China “has always placed Myanmar in an important position in its neighbourly diplomacy" and wants to “deepen exchanges and cooperation," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Myanmar counterpart Wunna Maung Lwin on April 01, according to China's official Xinhua News Agency. Myanmar’s military, which ousted the civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, has continued to face popular resistance that amounts to what some U.N. experts have characterized as a civil war. The government is also facing genocide accusations at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. In return for Chinese diplomatic support and material assistance, Myanmar has been a loyal ally of Beijing within a 10-member regional bloc, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The sides should accelerate work on the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, step up construction of “major landmark projects" and “deepen solidarity in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic," Wang said. “No matter how the situation changes, China will support Myanmar in safeguarding its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, and in exploring a development path suited to its national conditions," Wang said. Click here to read... [30]

North Korea has large arsenal of 'theatre-class' missiles: US commander

North Korea has a large number of "theatre-class" missiles with a desire to develop a "credible" missile threat, a U.S. commander has said, casting the recalcitrant regime as a strategic security challenge. Adm. Charles Richard, head of the U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM), made the assessment in a written statement to the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense prior to a closed-door hearing on April 05 (local time). "The DPRK previously tested ICBM class missiles designed to reach the U.S., and they have a large arsenal of theatre-class missiles," he said, referring to the North by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. "The recent missile launches demonstrate their ongoing desire to develop a credible missile threat." Theatre-class missiles refer to those intended for use in specific areas of military operations. Richard's remarks came as Seoul and Washington are cranking up security cooperation in the wake of a series of North Korean missile launches, including the regime's March 24 test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The commander reiterated the U.S. commitment of "extended deterrence" to its two key Asian allies South Korea and Japan. Extended deterrence means America's stated pledge to use a full range of military assets, both nuclear and conventional, to defend its allies. Click here to read... [31]

Medical

BA.2: What to know about world’s dominant Omicron sub-variant

BA.2, a sub-variant of the Omicron coronavirus variant, has now become dominant globally, representing nearly 86 percent of all sequenced cases, according to the World Health Organization. First detected in the early days of January, the sub-variant is even more transmissible than its highly contagious Omicron siblings, BA.1 and BA.1.1.A missing gene in BA.1 allowed it to be tracked by default through a common PCR test. BA.2 and another sibling, BA.3 – also increasing in prevalence but currently at low levels – can only be found by genomic sequencing.Even though BA.2 is more infectious than other Omicron sub-variants, according to studies, evidence suggests so far that it is not more likely to cause severe disease.Are vaccines effective against BA.2? As with the other Omicron variants, vaccines are less effective against BA.2 than they are against other variants like Alpha or the original strain of coronavirus, and protection declines over time. However, according to UK Health Security Agency data, protection is restored by a booster jab, particularly for preventing hospitalisation and death. Click here to read... [32]

China approves CSPC, CanSino mRNA vaccines for clinical trial, boosting country’s arsenal against raging Omicron outbreak

China’s health authorities have approved clinical trials of two Covid-19 vaccines that use mRNA, potentially adding an option to the nation’s arsenal in its battle against the pandemic’s worst outbreak since 2020. CanSino Biologics and CSPC Pharmaceutical have been approved by the National Medical Products Administration of China (NMPA) to commence trials, according to statements by the two companies. The approvals add CanSino and CSPC to the race among Chinese companies to use messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) for generating immune cells to fight the coronavirus, possibly offering viable alternatives to the vaccines already in production by international peers Pfizer BioNTech and Moderna.One mRNA vaccine called ARCoVax – developed by the Chinese Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Suzhou Abogen Biosciences and Walvax Biotechnology – is already in the final stages of global human trials. It comes as China battles its worst outbreak of the coronavirus in two years. The commercial capital of Shanghai is in lockdown, as the nation recorded 1,366 confirmed cases and 11,771 asymptomatic cases on April 03. Click here to read... [33]