Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (29 May- 04 June)

Economic

China’s economic recovery faces challenging summer as hydropower producer sizzles amid drought

As sizzling summer heat leads to a surge in power demand, months of persistent drought conditions across a major hydropower producer in China’s southwest are compounding concerns about the nation’s economic recovery. Rainfall in Yunnan province during the first four months of 2023 dropped by more than 60 per cent from the same period last year, and the trend has shown little sign of reversing even as the region enters its rainy season, according to local meteorological data. While the province has been limiting the electricity consumption of more than 300 energy-intensive local enterprises – mostly for aluminium production – since September to ensure residents’ livelihoods, the impact may soon spill over to other parts of the country if the droughts continue, as Yunnan also bears responsibility for supplying electricity to the southern economic powerhouse of Guangdong. As the power-supply dilemma caused by extreme weather has persisted for two consecutive years in China, the reliability of the existing electricity supply structure in the country is facing increasing challenges from the worsening impact of global warming. “Hydropower generation in Yunnan in the following months is crucial for the electricity supply and demand situation in Guangdong,” said a note from Tianfeng Securities last week.Click here to read… [2]

After US$382 billion China stock rout, Nomura and Morgan Stanley join Goldman in cutting bullish targets amid economy, earnings hurdles

Nomura and Morgan Stanley are turning less bullish on the outlook for Chinese equities, joining Goldman Sachs in cutting their market valuation and upside targets as the economy muddles through post-pandemic recovery. Japan’s biggest brokerage cut its year-end target for MSCI China Index to 67 from 75.3, according to a June 4 report to clients, following several weak economic reports in April and May, intensified competition among tech companies and simmering geopolitical tensions. Morgan Stanley now expects the MSCI China Index to reach 70 by June 2024 in what appears to be the first dial-back since January. The Wall Street firm had previously targeted the index to reach 80 by end-2023 on the back of reopening optimism. The two downgrades added to a chorus of downbeat views on China’s recovery momentum since Beijing started abandoning its zero-Covid policy in November. A slump in export demand and China’s spat with the West, from semiconductor to military issues, have prompted money managers to dump Chinese assets, eroding the yuan to near the weakest against the US dollar since November. “Sentiment towards China remains fragile with investors continuing to be concerned about the sustainability of China recovery, in the absence of more stimulus and property market recovery,” Nomura analysts including Chetan Seth said in the report.Click here to read… [3]

Africa, Middle East driving growing ’employment divide’, UN says

Low-income countries in Africa and the Middle East are missing out on the global recovery of unemployment rates to pre-pandemic levels, the United Nations labour agency has warned. Global unemployment is expected to drop to 5.3 percent – representing 191 million people – this year, down from 5.4 percent in 2022 and 5.5 percent in 2019 as labour markets recover from the shock of COVID-19 and pandemic restrictions, according to a report released by the International Labour Organization (ILO) on May 31. But much of that recovery will occur in high-income countries that have proven to be surprisingly resilient to economic shocks, leaving many low-income countries with persistently high rates of unemployment, the ILO said. Unemployment in North Africa and the Arab states is projected to be 11.2 percent and 9.3 per cent, respectively, in 2023, remaining above pre-pandemic levels. Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Central and Western Asia have all reduced their unemployment rates to pre-crisis levels. The growing employment divide comes as the world’s economy is expected to grow just 2.8 percent in 2023, down from 3.4 percent in 2022. The figures, however, do not paint a full picture of the unemployment crisis in low-income countries, according to the ILO, which said the “jobs gap” is even more severe when accounting for people who want to work but do not have a job or the ability to get one.Click here to read… [4]

Oil Prices Climb As Saudi Arabia Goes It Alone With Additional Cut

Crude oil prices rose by more than 1% in early trade today following the OPEC+ meeting that took place June 04. At that meeting, Saudi Arabia said it would voluntarily cut its oil production by another 1 million barrels daily next month in a bid to prop up global oil prices. Oil prices did initially spike on June 04, with WTI nearing $74 and Brent climbing toward $78 before both falling back. One other member of the cartel, the UAE, was allowed to actually increase its output but about 200,000 bpd, while several others got their production quotas adjusted. These were countries that consistently failed to reach their assigned quotas for various reasons, such as Nigeria and Angola. At the same time, the meeting unsurprisingly agreed to extend current production cuts of 3.66 million bpd until the end of this year and reduce combined production by another 1.4 million bpd from the start of 2024. "It is a clear signal to the market that OPEC+ is willing to put and defend a price floor," Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen told Reuters. “We want to just ice the cake with what we have done,” the Saudi energy minister said, as quoted by the Financial Times. “We will do whatever is necessary to bring stability to this market.”Click here to read… [5]

Big Banks Could Face 20% Boost to Capital Requirements

U.S. regulators are preparing to force large banks to shore up their financial footing, moves they say will help boost the resilience of the system after a spate of midsize bank failures this year. The changes, which regulators are on track to propose as early as this month, could raise overall capital requirements by roughly 20% at larger banks on average, people familiar with the plans said. The precise amount will depend on a firm’s business activities, with the biggest increases expected to be reserved for U.S. megabanks with big trading businesses. Banks that are heavily dependent on fee income—such as that from investment banking or wealth management—could also face large capital increases. Capital is the buffer banks are required to hold to absorb potential losses. The plan to ratchet up capital is expected to be the first of several steps to beef up rules for Wall Street, a shift from the lighter regulatory approach taken during the Trump administration. The industry says more stringent requirements aren’t needed, could force more banks to merge to stay competitive and could make it harder for Americans to get loans from banks. Tougher rules were already on the way for the biggest lenders before the March failures of Silicon Valley Bank and another bank sent tremors through the industry. Since then, regulators have said they plan to apply new rules to a wider range of banks.Click here to read… [6]

Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates central banks move to strengthen ties

The central banks of Hong Kong and United Arab Emirates said on May 30 they plan to boost cooperation in multiple areas as the two markets seek to strengthen financial ties. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates intend to collaborate on financial infrastructure, financial market connectivity and virtual asset regulations.Click here to read… [7]

China plans new property-market support package to boost economy - Bloomberg News

China is working on new measures to support the property market after existing policies failed to sustain a rebound in the sector, Bloomberg News reported on 02 June, citing people familiar with the matter. Regulators are considering reducing down-payments in some non-core neighbourhoods of major cities, lowering agent commissions on transactions, and further relaxing restrictions for residential purchases under the guidance of the State Council, according to Bloomberg News. The state council did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments. The property sector, once a pillar of economic growth, slumped sharply last year with developers defaulting on debt or bonds and suspending construction of presold housing projects. Policymakers have rolled out measures since the second half of 2022 to stabilise the property market that has been further boosted by the lifting of tough COVID curbs in December. Demand, however, remains bleak with property investment and sales falling in April as consumers remained cautious about big ticket spending amid concerns over incomes and jobs as a post-pandemic recovery loses steam. The central bank outlined 16 measures of policy support, including loan repayment extensions, in November. The housing regulator issued a notice in May that requires local real estate brokers to reduce fees for housing transactions and leasing services to promote healthy development of the sector.Click here to read… [8]

China tops development finance in Southeast Asia, faces more competition for regional influence: report

China has been Southeast Asia’s largest development partner and its biggest source of official development finance but faces increasing competition from other financiers, according to a new report by the Lowy Institute. Infrastructure funding accounted for the majority of development finance but China’s contribution in this aspect slowed in 2020 and 2021 when many projects, including those in the Belt and Road Initiative, did not deliver and the pandemic reduced China’s funding to Southeast Asia. Between 2015 and 2021, China disbursed about US$5 billion a year in development finance to Southeast Asia, with infrastructure development accounting for about 75 per cent. Infrastructure typically includes projects in transport and storage, energy, communications, and water and sanitation. Transparency in aid going to regions like Southeast Asia is increasingly important amid geopolitical competition for influence, the report said. “Intensifying geostrategic tensions between China and Western governments have also seen a growing focus on using development finance, particularly in infrastructure, as a means of competing for influence,” Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre director Roland Rajah said. “This makes an understanding of the scale and contours of official developmental finance in Southeast Asia of critical interest to governments in the region and their development partners.”Click here to read… [9]

China's massive new canal aims for closer ASEAN connectivity

The steady thunder of dump trucks breaks the serenity of what were once forested hills in the southern Chinese region of Guangxi. They carry mounds of earth excavated to build an enormous canal, with locks capable of accommodating 5,000-tonne cargo ships. The 72.7 billion Yuan ($10.3 billion) Pinglu Canal will stretch over 134 kilometers from the Xijin Reservoir, near Guangxi's capital city of Nanning, to the port of Qinzhou in the south, complementing existing highways and railways to move goods. All told, officials say an estimated 340 million cubic meters of dirt and rocks -- three times what was excavated to build China's Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest hydroelectric plant -- will be cleared away. "Work is being carried out on a 24-hour basis" to meet the completion deadline of 2026, Li Xiaoxiang, an official at the construction site, told Nikkei Asia during a recent tour organized and supervised by Guangxi's foreign affairs office. Launched last year, the project highlights Beijing's shifting focus toward enhancing maritime connectivity for its Belt and Road Initiative, as opposed to land routes, observers say. "That's quite new," said Yang Jiang, an expert on China's politics and economy at the Danish Institute for International Studies, noting the canal was conceived in a 2019 plan to construct a strong transport country. "A lot of effort so far has been on railway" infrastructure.Click here to read… [10]

Along China's Belt and Road, lenders' problem debt mounts

Chinese overseas loans went sour at a far worse rate in recent years as the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation took a toll on emerging economies involved in Beijing's Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. A total of $76.8 billion in debt was renegotiated -- in some cases written off -- from 2020 to 2022, data from the Rhodium Group shows. This figure is more than four times the $17 billion in problem debt for the preceding three years. The first year of the pandemic, 2020, was the worst with $48.7 billion, but the $9 billion in 2022 was still nearly triple the 2019 figure. Beijing has backed the construction of ports, roads, railways and other infrastructure from Asia to Africa and Europe for 10 years under President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative. But this vast undertaking has slowed as the problem debts have piled up. Investment came to around $100 billion a year until 2019, but declined amid the pandemic, falling to roughly $60 billion to $70 billion a year from 2020 on, data from the American Enterprise Institute shows. The loan renegotiations come alongside financial assistance. Of the $240 billion in aid China provided to over 20 emerging markets between 2008 and 2021, about 30% was given in 2020 and 2021 alone, according to research by the World Bank, AidData and elsewhere.Click here to read… [11]

Militant attacks threaten cash-strapped Pakistan's energy plans

Pakistan's bid to ease a crippling foreign exchange crisis by importing energy from Iran could be in jeopardy, as a militant attack near their border has thrown future deals into doubt, analysts say. Five Iranian border guards were killed in the May 21 clash with an extremist group in Saravan, a town in Iran near the frontier with Pakistan. The incident came days after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi met in a border village to inaugurate a 100 megawatt transmission line that will supply Iranian electricity to southern Pakistan's port hub of Gwadar, which has drawn investment under China's Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure push. Iran's foreign ministry blasted the "terrorist attack" as an "attempt to damage cooperation and friendly relations between Tehran and Islamabad" after the leaders' first one-on-one meeting in a decade. Militant group Jaishul-Adl took responsibility for the border guard killings, in an apparent retaliation over what it says is the poor treatment of Shiite Iran's Sunni Muslim minority. "This attack can be a huge spoiler for prospective energy deals between Iran and Pakistan," said Alex Vatanka, founding director of the Iran Programme at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. "You cannot have economic cooperation in an environment of insecurity."Click here to read… [12]

New law allows nuclear reactors to operate past 60 years in Japan

A controversial bill that will allow aging nuclear reactors to stay online past 60 years was passed by the Diet with the approval at the Upper House on May 31. Reactors can operate beyond that period as times they are shut down for safety inspections or court injunctions will now be excluded from their service time calculation with the passing of the bill. In principle, the Law on the Regulation of Nuclear Reactors limits nuclear reactors’ operational periods to 40 years. However, it also says that the period can be extended for up to 20 years if the Nuclear Regulation Authority sanctions it.The limit was introduced after the triple meltdown at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant in 2011, with the support of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, which were opposition parties at the time. The bill on decarbonization of energy sources revises five laws, including the Law on the Regulation of Nuclear Reactors, the Electricity Business Law and the Atomic Energy Basic Law. With the revisions, the rule about nuclear reactors’ operational periods will be removed from the Law on the Regulation of Nuclear Reactors, which is under the NRA’s jurisdiction. It will instead be added to the Electricity Business Law, which falls under the industry ministry’s jurisdiction.Click here to read… [13]

Number of births in Japan plummets to under record-low 800,000 in 2022

The number of Japanese babies born in 2022 totalled 770,747 the lowest since 1899 when the number started being recorded according to the health ministry's vital statistics released on June 2. It also marked the first time that the number of births dropped below 800,000. The total fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman is expected to give birth to in her lifetime, fell to 1.26 in 2022. It’s the lowest number since 1947, the starting year for collection of the data, and tied with 2005. The figures in the latest statistics show the accelerating decline in the birthrate in Japan. Officials at the ministry’s section responsible for demographics, health and social statistics speculated that the pandemic may have played a major role in the drop. “We can’t generalize the reasons, but there is a possibility that the COVID-19 pandemic made people feel worried about giving birth and raising children, which might have affected (the number of births and the total fertility rate),” they said. The number of births in 2022 was 40,875 fewer than in 2021, marking a 5.0 percent decline. That marked a drop in the number of births for the seventh consecutive year. In 2021, which also saw a new low, births fell around 29,000, or 3.5 percent, from the previous year.Click here to read… [14]

S. Korean economy feared to follow in Japan's footsteps

The Japanese economy often receives a bad rap from experts. The usual and common narrative is that Japan suffers from a low economic growth rate, low birthrate, huge government debt, an aging population, average entrepreneurship and dying regions. When the Japanese economy enjoyed a glorious heyday in the late 1980s due to rapid economic growth, the mainstream view was that Japan might one day become the richest country in Asia. But the meteoric growth achieved during this period was associated with the development of a large-scale asset price bubble in Japan, which kick-started the "lost decades" for that country. Considering the significant similarities between South Korea and Japan and also their fundamental economic structures ― export- and labor-led growth ― economists and policymakers now say the shrinking South Korean working-age population, weakening exports, growing concerns about global financial fragmentation, faltering industrial output and slowing economic growth will erode real incomes for South Korean households. Look at the bizarre similarities between the financial risks that emerged in Japan in the late 1980s and those now escalating in South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy. Data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) show that South Korea's total household debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio was the highest among the 34 major economies in the first quarter of this year.Click here to read… [15]

US and Taiwan ink trade deal as China issues warning

The United States and Taiwan signed a trade deal on June 1 aimed at deepening economic relations between both sides - in a move that has sparked a warning from Beijing. The US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade looks to boost trade by streamlining customs checks, improving regulatory procedures, and establishing anti-corruption measures between the United States and the self-governing island of Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory. While Washington and Taipei do not have official diplomatic relations, they maintain unofficial ties through the de facto US embassy on the island, the American Institute in Taiwan. The first agreement under the latest initiative was signed by representatives of the American Institute in Taiwan and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States, said the US Trade Representative's (USTR) press office on June 01. The pact is "intended to strengthen and deepen the economic and trade relationship" between both sides, USTR spokesperson Sam Michel added in a statement.Deputy US Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi attended the signing ceremony, he said. "We thank our Taiwan partners for helping us reach this important milestone and look forward to upcoming negotiations on additional trade areas set forth in the initiative's negotiating mandate," Michel said.Click here to read… [16]

Targeting Toyota for Its Electric-Vehicle Heresy

It wasn’t long ago that Toyota’s hybrid vehicles were all the rage with the climate-change left. Now progressive investors and government pension funds are targeting the Prius manufacturer in a proxy campaign because it has questioned the climate lobby’s electric-vehicle orthodoxy. Toyota discloses its CO2 emissions and has pledged to make all its vehicles carbon neutral by 2050. This should please the climate crowd. Yet progressive investors are seeking to oust Chairman Akio Toyoda and are pushing a resolution at its June 14 shareholder meeting to make the world’s largest auto maker disclose its climate-related lobbying. News reports say the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers) and New York City’s public-worker pension funds have voted against Mr. Toyoda’s re-election, and the proxy advisory firm Glass Lewis has recommended that shareholders do so as well. They say Mr. Toyoda deserves the boot because Toyota’s board isn’t sufficiently independent of management. But Toyota’s corporate governance model is old news. The sudden concern suggests it is merely a pretext for punishing Mr. Toyoda for the heresy of doubting the West’s hell-bent EV transition. He made news in December when he claimed that a “silent majority” in the auto industry “is wondering whether EVs are really OK to have as a single option. But they think it’s the trend so they can’t speak out loudly.”Click here to read… [17]

Strategic

Xi warns of national security 'storms' with eye on U.S. tensions

President Xi Jinping called national security risks facing China "dangerous storms," an assessment made in light of tensions brewing with the U.S. His remarks came during a National Security Commission meeting, according to a report May 31 by the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party. "The complexity and severity of national security problems faced by our country have increased dramatically," Xi said. "We must be ready to withstand the major test of high winds, choppy waters and even dangerous storms." During the meeting, which was held May 30, Xi mentioned the need to quickly build an integrated early warning system that monitors risks in real time."It is imperative to advance the transformation of ways and measures to uphold and ensure national security, and promote empowerment by science and technology." Xi has long emphasized national security. In 2014, the Chinese leader launched the National Security Commission under the Communist Party's Central Committee. May 30's security commission meeting was the first since Xi started his third term as president in March. He used the forum to express a grim view about the national security environment facing China. The security commission expanded the number of vice chairmen to three from two. The vice chairmen positions are occupied by members of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee: Premier Li Qiang, Zhao Leji and Cai Qi.Click here to read… [18]

China turns down U.S. invitation for defence chiefs meeting

Beijing has declined the Pentagon's request for a meeting between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and China's defence minister Li Shangfu at a security forum in Singapore in June, the latest sign of the difficulties the countries are having trying to stabilize their turbulent relationship. The overture had been made for a meeting to take place at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an Asia security event hosted annually by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The People's Republic of China informed the U.S. that they have declined our early May invitation," the Pentagon said. The Financial Times reported this month that China had told the U.S. there was little chance of a meeting as long as Washington maintained sanctions on Li, which had been imposed by the Trump administration in 2018 in connection with Chinese purchases of Russian fighter jets and missiles. The Pentagon had previously informed China that the sanctions did not prohibit a meeting in Singapore, but Beijing signalled that it would be inappropriate to meet as long as they remained in place. "This is far from the first time that the PRC has rejected invitations to communicate from the secretary, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or other [defence] department officials," said a senior U.S. defense official. "Frankly, it's just the latest in a litany of excuses."Click here to read… [19]

China responds to US complaint over plane intercept with demand for end to surveillance flights

Beijing responded May 31 to complaints from the United States about a Chinese fighter jet's dangerous interception of an American Air Force reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace over the South China Sea by demanding an end to such flights. The incident adds to military, diplomatic and economic tensions between the sides over U.S. support for self-governing Taiwan, China's refusal to engage in dialogue between their armed forces and Beijing's flying of a suspected spy balloon over the U.S. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters at a daily briefing May 31 that China would keep taking measures it deems necessary to safeguard its sovereignty. "The U.S. should immediately stop these dangerous provocations," Mao said. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command called the Chinese plane's actions an "unnecessarily aggressive manoeuver," adding to complaints that China's military has become significantly more aggressive over the past five years, intercepting U.S. aircraft and ships in the region. China says it owns the South China Sea virtually in its entirety, a claim not recognized internationally and directly challenged by nations along its coast including the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia. In a statement May 30, the U.S. military said the pilot of the Chinese J-16 fighter jet flew directly in front of the nose of the RC-135 conducting routine operations in international airspace June 02.Click here to read… [20]

US has more military experience, but China has infrastructure to grow capabilities at a faster rate: Analysts

The United States may have more experience in military deployment, but China has the infrastructure in place to grow its military capabilities at a faster rate, experts told CNA on June 2. The world is seeing it’s most significant bolstering of military might since World War II, with countries boosting their budgets, holding more joint military training, and increasing weapons manufacturing. Nuclear armament is also making a return, with implications for regional and global security, observers noted. They were speaking to CNA on the first day of this year's Shangri-La Dialogue, which takes place from June 2 to 4 in Singapore. It involves 41 countries, with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese delivering the keynote address on June 02. Mr Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said an upward trend in military capabilities has been observed in recent years in Asia and Southeast Asia. “With the war in Ukraine, in particular, policymakers and defence chiefs are simply more attuned to the fact that inter-state conflict is not a thing of the past. It can very much happen in the 21st century and it can happen in Asia,” he told CNA’s Asia Now. “So this, I think, is primarily driving continuing investments in advanced capabilities.”Click here to read… [21]

China’s Missile Threat Drives New U.S. Approach in Asia

At this tiny commercial airport near the northern tip of the Philippines, tents for U.S. military equipment and troops dotted the tarmac alongside U.S. Army helicopters during recent training exercises. It is one of a growing number of outposts for American forces in the Asia-Pacific region designed to meet the rising military challenge from China. It is also part of a shift away from a heavy reliance on big military bases that have been the linchpin of the American presence in Asia for decades. Such bases are increasingly vulnerable as Beijing’s missile arsenal grows larger and more technologically advanced. By dispersing weaponry, troops and command posts among smaller outposts such as Lal-lo, the U.S. hopes to make it harder for Beijing to strike a decisive blow by crippling any single military facility. “The threat to fixed bases from the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, given its extraordinary growth in capabilities in the last few years, is front and center,” said Thomas Shugart, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington, D.C. think tank. China’s growing military capabilities and the U.S. military presence in Asia are set to be among the themes at this weekend’s meeting of defence ministers in Singapore known as the Shangri-La Dialogue.Click here to read… [22]

U.S., Japan push to expand multilateral security framework

The U.S. and Japan are leading efforts to expand a multilateral security cooperation framework, with their defence ministers to meet Australian and Philippine counterparts this weekend in Singapore, Japanese officials told Nikkei. The gathering, which marks the first time defence chiefs from those four countries will hold a quadrilateral meeting, is expected to take place as early as June 03 on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore. The U.S. and Japan will also hold separate trilateral meetings with defence ministers from South Korea and Australia. The series of meetings underscore efforts to expand a defence cooperation framework centered on the U.S. and Japan, with an eye toward beefing up deterrence against China and North Korea. The Shangri-La Dialogue brings together regional defence chiefs for three days through June 04. The four-way talks will likely address measures to deter China's maritime expansion. The agenda is also expected to feature a plan for a joint passage of naval ships through the South China Sea, including warships from the Japan Self-Defense Forces. The risk of China waging an attack against Taiwan will likely loom over the four-way talks. China sees the "first island chain," which extends from Japan's southwest islands and connects to the Philippines, as a strategic perimeter for weakening involvement by other countries in Taiwanese affairs.Click here to read… [23]

Bangladesh faces election test as U.S. draws line on manipulation

A new U.S. visa policy for Bangladesh has sent a jolt through the South Asian country's political class, as Washington steps up pressure for fair elections. Eyeing Bangladesh's polls scheduled for early January, President Joe Biden's administration announced last week that it would restrict visas for any Bangladeshi nationals deemed to obstruct a free and fair electoral process. In public, leaders in Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government have scoffed at the move. But analysts say the episode highlights the increasingly tense relationship between Bangladesh and its key export market -- as well as a geopolitical tussle between the U.S. and China. Concerns over Bangladesh's democracy are not new. Independent observers found serious flaws in the last two elections. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party boycotted the race in 2014, and allegations of vote-rigging again marred the polls in December 2018, when Hasina's Awami League won 288 of 298 seats. Some observers argued that kind of result would be more expected in North Korea. Now all eyes are on the upcoming vote. The U.S., U.K., European Union and Japan have all stressed the importance of keeping it fair. In April, when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with his Bangladeshi counterpart A.K. Abdul Momen in Washington, he opened their talks by laying out the administration's serious concerns.Click here to read… [24]

China plans to land astronauts on moon before 2030, another step in what looks like a new space race

China plans to land astronauts on the moon before 2030, in what would be another advance in what's increasingly seen as a new space race pitting the Asian autocracy against the United States and its democratic allies. The U.S. aims to put astronauts back on the lunar surface by the end of 2025. Deputy Director of the Chinese Manned Space Agency Lin Xiqiang confirmed China's goal at a news conference May 29 but gave no specific date. China is first preparing for a “short stay on the lunar surface and human-robotic joint exploration,” Lin said. “We have a complete near-Earth human space station and human round-trip transportation system," complemented by a process for selecting, training and supporting new astronauts, he said. A schedule of two crewed missions a year is "sufficient for carrying out our objectives,” Lin said. China's space agency also introduced the new crew heading to its orbiting space station in a launch scheduled for May 30 and said the station will be expanded. The Tiangong space station was said to have been finished in November when the third section was added. The fourth module will be added “at an appropriate time to advance support for scientific experiments and provide the crew with improved working and living conditions,” Lin said.Click here to read… [25]

Germany to send two warships to Indo-Pacific in 2024 amid South China Sea tensions

Germany will send two warships to the Indo-Pacific in 2024, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said on June 04, amid rising tensions between China and Taiwan and over the disputed South China Sea. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Asia's most important security conference, Pistorius said countries needed to stand up for the rules-based international order and the protection of major maritime passages. "To this end, the German Federal Government sent a frigate to the Indo-Pacific in 2021, and will again, in 2024, deploy maritime assets – this time a frigate and a supply ship - to the region," he said, according to a script of his speech distributed by the defence ministry in Berlin. He added the deployments were not directed against any nation, a remark apparently addressed at China. "To the contrary: They are dedicated to the protection of the rules-based international order that we all signed up to and which we all should benefit from – be it in the Mediterranean, in the Bay of Bengal or in the South China Sea." By showing a greater military presence in the region, Germany is walking a tightrope between its security and economic interests as China is Berlin's most important trading partner.Click here to read… [26]

No change to Erdogan’s style of rule, foreign policy expected, following Türkiye presidential election win: Analysts

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s win in Türkiye presidential election will not bring significant changes to his governing style, and may even embolden him further, according to experts. The 69-year-old won 52.1 per cent of the vote in a runoff election on May 28 against challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu, extending his rule into a third decade. His increasingly authoritarian policies have polarised Türkiye and strengthened its position as a regional military power. Critics hope that the results of the election, which showed that Türkiye is a “much divided country”, will force President Erdogan to change his style of rule, said Dr James Dorsey, adjunct senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “I'm a bit more skeptical about that. I think you're going to see in many ways, more of the same,” he told CNA938 on May 28. He noted that President Erdogan has “somewhat idiosyncratic ideas about the economy”, such as keeping interest rates low when he should be raising them, and undermining the independence of institutions such as the Turkish central bank. While he has indicated that Türkiye is receiving support from the Gulf states, however, those countries have themselves changed their attitudes in terms of providing economic support, noted Dr Dorsey.Click here to read… [27]

US Republicans threaten to hold FBI director in contempt

The FBI has again refused to turn over documents subpoenaed by the US Congress regarding bribery accusations against President Joe Biden, prompting House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer to warn that he will seek to hold the agency’s director in contempt for “obstructionist” tactics. “The FBI’s decision to stiff-arm Congress and hide this information from the American people is obstructionist and unacceptable,” Comer said on May 30 in a statement. The Kentucky Republican added that the committee will take steps to hold FBI director Christopher Wray in contempt of Congress for refusing to comply with a lawful subpoena. “Americans deserve the truth, and the Oversight Committee will continue to demand transparency from this nation’s chief law enforcement agency,” Comer added. At issue is an FBI informant file detailing allegations that Biden accepted $5 million in foreign bribes in exchange for policy favors when he worked as vice president under then-President Barack Obama. The FBI received the tip in June 2020. The allegations came to light earlier this year, when a whistleblower informed Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of their existence. FBI officials have missed multiple deadlines to comply with the subpoena, including Comer’s latest demand that the documents be handed over by May 30. Wray has claimed that the allegations against Biden were unverified and that the so-called FD-1023 file in the case must be kept private to protect FBI informants.Click here to read… [28]

The Battle For Water: Iran And Afghanistan's Taliban In Conflict

Water has exposed cracks in the Taliban's fragile relationship with Tehran, with both sides exchanging pointed barbs over scarce supplies before coming to deadly blows along the Afghan-Iranian border. Tensions remain high following the deaths of troops from both sides on May 27, with Taliban and Iranian officials digging in on their positions with increased military activity and fresh warnings. But while disputes over water security are expected to intensify between the two drought-stricken countries, both sides appear to be keeping the door open for dialogue on the issue while boosting cooperation in other areas of mutual concern. The deadly firefight took place across the shared border between south-eastern Iran and south-western Afghanistan, with each side accusing the other of firing first. Social media footage showed Taliban heavy weaponry streaming to the border in the Kang district of Nimroz Province, where officials said one Taliban border guard was killed and several people were wounded after an exchange of heavy gunfire.Iranian media, meanwhile, said up to three Iranian border guards were killed and several people wounded in its south-eastern Sistan-Baluchistan Province, where Iran has worked to fortify its border as tensions over water supplies rose over the past two weeks. Following the incident, the Taliban has continued to push back on Iran's claim that it is not honouring a water treaty ironed out by the two sides in 1973.Click here to read… [29]

Sudan army brings in reinforcements as it battles RSF in Khartoum

The Sudanese army has called in reinforcements to aid in its fight with its rival, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), sparking fear among residents in the capital of Khartoum that the conflict will intensify. Residents in the southern part of the capital reported seeing the reinforcement troops, alongside a heightened military presence of the RSF, Al Jazeera’s Hiba Morgan said on June 03 from Omdurman, a city adjoining Khartoum. The Sudanese army has been trying to take control of a military base there that belongs to the RSF for the past two days. Residents have been warned to stay as far away as possible from the base, Morgan said. Fighting has also continued to rage elsewhere in the state of Khartoum as well as Darfur, intensifying despite United States sanctions imposed after the collapse of a US and Saudi-brokered ceasefire late on June 01. “Fighter jets are flying overhead in the city of Omdurman. And there’s been air strikes launched by the army on RSF positions in the northern parts of the capital,” Morgan said. “There have also been sounds of artillery reported in the centre of the capital.” Journalist Matt Nashed, speaking from neighbouring Egypt, said the army seems to be attempting to launch a much larger offensive in the capital.Click here to read… [30]

Iran Expands Stockpile of Highly Enriched Uranium

Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium grew by over a quarter in the three months to May, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported, adding to concerns over the speed with which Tehran is accumulating 60% highly enriched uranium that can be quickly converted into weapons-grade material for nuclear weapons. U.S. officials have said it could take Iran as little as 12 days to have enough fuel for a bomb.But the Islamic Republic has also taken its first steps in several years to improve the United Nations atomic agency’s oversight of its nuclear work, the IAEA said May 31. Iran’s decision to provide the agency with more oversight of certain aspects of its nuclear work and to address some specific questions the IAEA had about Iran’s activities suggests the space for a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear work remains open. The IAEA’s confidential reports, circulated to member states on May 31, come after efforts by the Biden administration to revive the 2015 nuclear deal appear to have failed. That agreement placed strict but temporary limits on Iran’s nuclear activities. The Trump administration took the U.S. out of the deal in 2018, arguing it wouldn’t stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.Click here to read… [31]

Fossil fuelled: climate talks in Germany begin with spotlight on oil chief

The future of fossil fuels – the leading source of planet-heating emissions – will face scrutiny at UN climate negotiations on June 05 with an under-fire Emirati oil chief poised to step into the driver’s seat. As the world struggles to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, pressure is on the United Arab Emirates to arrive in Germany with ambitious plans for its presidency of Dubai’s December COP28 climate summit. The choice of Sultan al-Jaber – head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, or ADNOC – to head COP28 has triggered calls from campaigners and lawmakers for him to step aside. Al-Jaber favours the rapid development of renewable energy. But he has also focused on tackling carbon emissions – with controversial technologies to capture CO2 – rather than reducing the use of fossil fuels, insisting they will have a key role in the energy transition. “The presidency needs to quickly show where its ambition lies: ramping up the renewables is part of it but recognising that won’t be enough for this COP,” said Laurence Tubiana, head of the European Climate Foundation. She added it was critical to “recognise that the fossil era is ending”. On June 04, the United Arab Emirates’ Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, responsible for overseeing the preparations for COP28, met with US special presidential envoy for climate John Kerry, in a meeting attended by al-Jaber.Click here to read… [32]

Health

Cancer Doctors Rethink Aggressive Treatments

Doctors are coalescing around the ironic idea that for some cancer treatment, less can be better. Some patients with cervical and pancreatic cancer can do as well with less invasive surgery, according to research presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology conference in Chicago over the weekend. Other studies at the annual meeting showed some patients with rectal cancer or Hodgkin lymphoma can safely get less radiation. The findings expand a body of evidence doctors are using to design treatment plans that aim to reduce side effects and costs. They call the strategy de-escalation: cutting back on some therapies to improve a patient’s quality of life without hurting their odds of survival. Newer treatments and tests are extending patients’ lives and moving cancer care away from a blunt, one-size-fits-all approach. On the strength of studies like those presented in Chicago, doctors are getting better at determining who needs the most aggressive care and who can get away with less treatment and less collateral damage. “It’s time to look at less toxic approaches,” said Dr. Julie Gralow, chief medical officer and executive vice president of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.Click here to read… [33]

Experts alarmed as syphilis cases spiking at fastest pace in decades

Health officials issued a new warning against syphilis, saying the sexually transmitted disease is spreading across Japan at the fastest pace in decades. As of May 21, there were 5,453 cases reported this year, up 1,527 from the same period the previous year, according to data released on May 30 by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases. The figure is preliminary and there could be far more cases going undetected, experts warn. “Syphilis infections increased even during the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Hiroshige Mikamo, a professor specializing in infectious diseases at Aichi Medical University. Mikamo said sex workers and their customers are among the patients. “Dating apps and social media also helped spread infections,” he added. In 1948, there were 220,000 reported syphilis patients in the country, but the number declined thanks to the availability of antibacterial drugs. However, the figure shot upward around 2010 and hit 12,966 cases according to preliminary figures in 2022, the highest since comparable data became available in 1999. Caused by the bacterium Treponema pallidum, the contagious infection is usually spread by sexual activity but can also be passed on by kissing. Syphilis patients may develop sores on their genitals and mouths in a few weeks after infection, followed by rashes on their palms and other parts of the body.Click here to read… [34]