Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 27 March - 02 April, 2023

Economic

U.S. regulator cites 'terrible' risk management for Silicon Valley Bank failure

A top U.S. regulator told a Senate panel on March 28 that Silicon Valley Bank did a "terrible" job of managing risk before its collapse, fending off criticism from lawmakers who blamed bank watchdogs for missing warning signs. In the first congressional hearing into the sudden collapse of two U.S. regional lenders and the ensuing chaos in markets, both Democratic and Republican lawmakers pressed the Federal Reserve's top banking regulator on whether the central bank should have been more aggressive in its oversight of SVB. "It looks like regulators knew the problem, but no one dropped the hammer," said Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat. Michael Barr, the Fed's vice chairman for supervision, criticized SVB for going months without a chief risk officer and how it modeled interest rate risk, which he said "was not at all aligned with reality." Fed supervisors had flagged such issues with bank management, but they went unaddressed, he added. "The risks were there, the regulators were pointing them out, and the bank didn't take action," he said. The failures of SVB and, days later, Signature Bank, set off a broader loss of investor confidence in the banking sector that pummeled stocks and stoked fears of a full-blown financial crisis. A deal to rescue Swiss giant Credit Suisse last week and a sale of SVB's assets to First Citizens BancShares this week has helped restore some calm to markets, but investors remain wary of more troubles lurking in the financial system. Click here to read... [2]

China and Brazil reach RMB-based trade deal

A Rio-based Chinese bank will be connected to China’s cross-border interbank payment System (CIPS), an alternative to SWIFT, to support trade settlements between China and Brazil in renminbi. Banco BOCOM BBM, a subsidiary of the Bank of Communications, China’s fifth largest bank, will be linked to CIPS to reduce the costs of commercial transactions with the direct exchange between Brazilian real and Chinese yuan, according to a statement released by the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil). The bank will become the first direct participant in the CIPS in South America while the Brazilian branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China will become the renminbi clearing bank in Brazil, said ApexBrasil. The announcement came after China and Brazil reportedly struck a deal to allow companies to settle their trade transactions in the two countries’ own currencies, ditching the United States dollar as an intermediary. In early February, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Brazilian central bank signed a memorandum of cooperation to establish renminbi clearing arrangements in Brazil. “These arrangements will help enterprises and financial institutions in both countries conduct cross-border transactions using the renminbi,” Mao Ning, a spokesperson of the Chinese foreign ministry, said March 30. “They will also further facilitate bilateral trade and investment.” Click here to read... [3]

OPEC+ announces surprise oil cuts; US calls move inadvisable

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on April 02 announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day, in a surprise move that analysts said would cause an immediate rise in prices and the United States called inadvisable. The pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, to 3.66 million bpd according to Reuters calculations, equal to 3.7% of global demand. April 02's development comes a day before a virtual meeting of an OPEC+ ministerial panel, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, and which had been expected to stick to 2 million bpd of cuts already in place until the end of 2023. Oil prices last month fell towards $70 a barrel, the lowest in 15 months, on concern that a global banking crisis would hit demand. Still, further action by OPEC+ to support the market was not expected after sources downplayed this prospect and crude recovered towards $80. The latest reductions could lift oil prices by $10 per barrel, the head of investment firm Pickering Energy Partners said on April 02, while oil broker PVM said it expected an immediate jump once trading starts after the weekend. Click here to read... [4]

China kicks off Boao Forum for Asia, seeking to reconnect with a business world that is looking elsewhere

In the face of US decoupling and tense geopolitical complications, Chinese and multinational companies need to make contingency plans for their production in the world’s second-largest economy, according to business executives. But even as that occurs, they say, China will continue to remain a global manufacturing hub. The remarks came at the Boao Forum for Asia that began on March 28 in South China’s tropical Hainan province. Billed as China’s answer to the World Economic Forum in Davos, the economic conference in Boao serves as a major platform to reconnect with the business world after three years of isolation under a restrictive zero-Covid policy that caused many companies to diversify their supply chains outside of the country. George Zhu, CEO of Vital Thin Film Materials, said his company was looking to set up joint ventures in other countries and move part of its production chain out of China to stem the potential risks of further decoupling from the US. The China-based company, which produces materials for electronic products, has a particular eye on the ramifications of economic decoupling between the US and China, as half of the firm’s customers are located overseas. “I think, currently, the shifting of supply chains is not being driven by the natural market economy, but rather manipulated by politics. “We have to have a plan B.” Click here to read... [5]

China and Singapore agree to upgrade ties, paving way for hi-tech cooperation

Beijing and Singapore have agreed to upgrade their ties and extend cooperation to science and technology as well as supply chains, capping Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s week-long trip to China. In a joint statement on April 01, both sides agreed to upgrade bilateral relations to an all-round, high-quality, future-oriented partnership, a move which they said reflected their “desire to set the strategic direction and chart the development of bilateral relations going forward”. The decision means China and Singapore can strengthen cooperation in areas including trade, investment, the digital economy, food security, finance and aviation, according to the joint statement. The two nations said they would uphold the rules-based multilateral trading system, and work to ensure the stable and smooth operation of global supply chains. Both also reaffirmed the need to further improve relations between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and enhance the Asean-China Free Trade Area. The joint statement marked the end of Lee’s six-day trip in China, his first visit to the country since the Covid-19 pandemic. Lee visited the provinces of Guangdong and Hainan before arriving in Beijing on March 31, when he met Chinese President Xi Jinping. In his meeting with Lee, Xi said ties with the city state were a priority for China’s regional diplomacy and the prime minister’s visit would further elevate the relationship. Click here to read... [6]

South Korea’s US$60 billion swing in China trade due to ‘shrinking tech advantage’ as deficit emerges

In just five years South Korea has gone from selling over US$55 billion more to China than it imported to recording a trade deficit of over US$5 billion at the start of 2023, with an analyst pointing to its shrinking “technological comparative advantage”. South Korea recorded a trade deficit – meaning it imports more than it exports – of US$5.1 billion with China in January and February, which was the highest among all its trading partners, the Korea International Trade Association said on March 28. This was a larger trade deficit than South Korea had with Australia – its largest coal exporter – at US$4.8 billion and Saudi Arabia – its largest crude oil exporter – at US$4.6 billion. In contrast, the United States contributed the largest trade surplus of US$4.1 billion in the first two months of the year. “As [South Korea’s] technological comparative advantage shrinks, the deficit with China will widen. Therefore, it is very urgent to make efforts to keep the technology gap,” said Park Ki-soon, a senior adviser for Dentons Lee law firm. He said that South Korea’s trade deficit with China is not a temporary phenomenon caused by the price rise of raw materials, but rather a structural problem as the comparative advantage of its products is disappearing. Click here to read... [7]

Japan sounds alarm bells as it moves to tackle falling birthrate

Japan has earmarked the next three years as the last chance to reverse the falling birthrate and halt an irreversible decline in the nation’s population. The government, in calling for urgent action, noted that the population of younger Japanese of child-bearing age will drop drastically from the 2030s, leaving just a few years to put appropriate measures in place. On March 31, it released a broad outline of proposals to tackle a problem that has been festering for many years. But the hard part will come in the next few months. Officials are being tasked to hammer out the specifics of a range of programs intended to provide better childcare services as well as more generous child allowances. But finding the funds to pay for the measures will not be easy. The government made no bones about the next three years being a period when a concentrated effort must be made to deal with the declining birthrate before it is too late. Although still on the drawing board, the steps envision raising the income of the younger generation, thereby allowing couples to make plans to raise a family. A more opaque proposal calls for changing the overall social structure and entrenched notions regarding child care. It called for seamless support to all households raising children. Click here to read... [8]

China to examine U.S. chipmaker Micron's products for cybersecurity risks

China's cyberspace regulator will conduct a cybersecurity review of products sold in the country by U.S. memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology, the regulator said on March 31. The move, which comes amid a spat over chip technology between Washington and Beijing, is aimed at protecting the security of the supply chain for critical information infrastructure, preventing hidden risks and safeguarding national security, the Cyberspace Administration of China said in a brief statement. It gave no other details, including which Micron products it was reviewing. The United States has imposed a series of export controls on chipmaking technology to China for fear it could be used to produce chips for applications such as artificial intelligence which could be used by China's military, and blacklisted a number of China's largest chip firms, including Micron rival Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. Micron, one of the world's largest memory chip makers, did not respond immediately to a request for comment. The company's shares fell 3% to $61.15 on March 31. "Punitive actions against Micron could suggest a broader shift in Chinese policy with other U.S. vendors with large Chinese exposure now potentially at risk of similar actions," Wedbush Securities analyst Matthew Bryson said. On March 31, Japan announced it would align its technology trade controls with a U.S. push to curb China's ability to make advanced chips. Click here to read... [9]

U.K. accepted as 12th member of CPTPP trade bloc

Trade officials from the 11 member countries of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership on March 31 agreed on the U.K.'s entry, a milestone that will expand the Asia-Pacific bloc's coverage to the edge of Europe. "They welcomed the substantial conclusion of the negotiations for the accession of the U.K. to the CPTPP," according to a joint ministerial statement released after the online meeting, where Britain was also present. The CPTPP is a broad agreement that removes trade tariffs between member countries and sets rules on matters such as cross-border investment, e-commerce, intellectual property, state-owned enterprises and labor. The U.K. will be the bloc's first nonfounding member since its launch in 2018. "The Accession Working Group and the U.K. confirmed the means by which the U.K. will comply with the existing rules contained in the CPTPP," the statement said. "The AWG also confirmed that the U.K. has provided commercially meaningful market access offers of the highest standard on goods, services, investment, financial services, government procurement, state-owned enterprises and temporary entry for business persons." With the U.K., the total gross domestic product of the members would increase to 15% of the world's total, from the current 12%. But Britain already has free trade agreements with many of the participants, at varying levels of implementation, and the U.K.'s entry may be more a symbolic and strategic move than an economically impactful one. Click here to read... [10]

China Boosts Lending to Struggling Belt and Road Borrowers

China’s emergency support for borrowers from its Belt and Road infrastructure program has ballooned as foreign governments struggle under heavy debts, highlighting the extent of Beijing’s bad loan problem as it works to overhaul its overseas lending strategy. The scale of China’s often-opaque assistance to borrowers in distress means Beijing has effectively established a new system for international rescue lending that exists alongside the International Monetary Fund and other Western institutions, according to new research published by the World Bank. Researchers say China’s willingness to lend more to struggling borrowers risks prolonging their difficulties by avoiding the need for painful economic changes. The opaque terms around China’s lending also risk complicating debt-relief efforts by obscuring countries’ true financial health, they say. The detailed look at Chinese rescue lending comes as indebted countries grapple with rising interest rates, high inflation and the newer risk of financial instability while policy makers contend with the fallout of a trio of U.S. bank failures. China has doled out more than $230 billion of emergency support in the past decade to foreign governments and central banks through new loans, rollovers of old loans and currency-swap agreements with the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, according to a tally by authors Sebastian Horn, Brad Parks, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch. Click here to read... [11]

Tunisia to cut water supplies to citizens overnight amid drought

Tunisia will cut off water supplies to citizens for seven hours a night in response to the country’s worst drought on record, state water distribution company SONEDE has said. The drought-hit country announced other tight restrictions on water usage – as it braces for another baking summer – including a ban on the use of potable water for irrigating farmland or green spaces, or for cleaning public areas or cars. SONEDE said on March 31 that the water will be cut off daily from 9pm until 4am, with immediate effect. Mosbah Helali, its head, said the drought in the country, brought on by the scarcity of rain across four consecutive years and which SONDE attributed to climate change, was unprecedented, and called on Tunisians to understand the decision. He said fines and even prison sentences were being considered if the rules were broken. Residents of several areas of the capital have already complained of unannounced cuts to their mains supply at night since the start of the fasting month of Ramadan, when many stay up late. “Years of drought and low water flow into reservoirs has impacted the country’s water stocks, which have reached an unprecedented situation,” the ministry said. The new decision threatens to fuel social tension in a country whose people suffer from poor public services, high inflation and a weak economy. Click here to read... [12]

Russia reveals energy policy priority

Russia intends to boost production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and increase its export share to offset a decline in pipeline gas supplies to Western Europe, Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak said on March 28. He argued that expansion of the global LNG market share should become a priority for Russia’s energy policy, and urged production of the fuel to be ramped up. “I believe that this is a key task in the current conditions, when our infrastructure to Europe has suffered, and we have lost a fairly large volume of pipeline gas exports,” Novak stated. Russia is prioritizing LNG projects after gas deliveries to Western Europe dropped to record lows in recent months due to Ukraine-related sanctions and the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. The country’s LNG development plans require additional gas resources to boost production by a further 34 million tons a year, with the goal of reaching output levels of at least 100 million tons of LNG per year by 2030, according to Novak. The minister pointed out that Russia has “several projects that have been implemented and there are a number of projects under construction such as Arctic LNG 2, Ust-Luga,” which will double the country’s current LNG output of 33 million tons a year. Click here to read... [13]

Japan needs Russian energy – PM

Japanese companies will continue to participate in Russian energy projects on Sakhalin Island due to their importance for Tokyo’s energy security, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced at a meeting of the upper house of parliament on March 27. Kishida told lawmakers that last year Tokyo managed to cut reliance on Russia’s energy resources by slashing oil imports by 90% and coal by 60%. Japan, which currently chairs the Group of Seven industrialized nations, remains in “close cooperation with the countries of the G7 and the world community” on the issue of energy supply, the prime minister said. At the same time, the Japanese government expects demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) to grow. “Therefore, in what concerns projects on Sakhalin, they are important for ensuring energy security in our country,” Kishida argued, explaining that the country will keep its stake in the new operator of the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project. Japan’s Sakhalin Oil and Gas Development Co (SODECO) owns a 30% stake in the Russian Far Eastern offshore project. Last year, the Russian government allowed SODECO to keep its stake under the new domestic operator of Sakhalin-1 following the exit of ExxonMobil, the previous operator and formerly also owner of a 30% stake. Japan is the world’s top LNG importer and a major natural gas and oil consumer. Click here to read... [14]

Republican-Sponsored Energy Bill Passes The House

A Republican sponsored energy bill passed the House on March 30 that seeks to promote oil and gas production in the United States, as well as repeal parts of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. H.R. 1 passed the House by a 225-204, according to Bloomberg, although it must now face a seemingly insurmountable hurdle in the Senate and President Biden's desk. The elements of the Republican-backed bill include: Repealing the first-time fee on methane emissions, Rolling back the fees for oil and gas industries that were included in the Inflation Reduction Act, Increasing royalties rates for oil and gas, which were also spelled out in the Inflation Reduction Act, Putting into law former President Trump's changes to the National Environmental Policy Act, Repealing the $27 billion in funding to the EPA for the purposes of establishing a green bank, A plan to speed up energy project permitting, Putting a two-year limit on environmental reviews for energy projects, Limiting litigation surrounding reviews, Exempting certain activities from environmental reviews, Mandating more oil and gas lease sales, Making it more difficult for individual states to block interstate pipeline projects and Streamlining the permitting process for energy projects. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer referred to the H.R. 1 as dead on arrival. The Bill could also get vetoed by the President. Click here to read... [15]

Hydrogen Pipeline System Is Starting To Take Shape In Europe

In cases where hydrogen will be shipped (as hydrogen or its derivatives), it will eventually be distributed on land using hydrogen pipelines, which makes transport via pipelines a critical transportation mode for the gas. Hydrogen pipelines are already used to supply industrial hubs (at petrochemical plants for example). As supply scales up and moves from areas with abundant and renewable energy to demand centers, long transmission lines will be a necessity and these pipelines would require larger diameters and higher pressure for cost effectiveness and consequently higher steel grades. Globally, Europe is at the forefront of efforts to produce and import green hydrogen and its attention is now turning to building the necessary infrastructure to get it to demand centers. According to Rystad Energy research, Spain, France, and Germany are among the countries committed or considering cross border pipelines to facilitate energy flows, while the UK with its extensive gas grid finds itself in a fantastic position to switch from natural gas to hydrogen. The steady increase in pipeline projects for hydrogen is an early sign that the energy transition is gathering pace. Europe, with its extensive gas grid is well placed to make the jump. Switching infrastructure from gas to hydrogen is possible and cost effective. But the greatest barrier is not financial, but the physical properties of hydrogen itself which differ substantially from oil and gas. Says Lein Mann Bergsmark, senior analyst, hydrogen. Click here to read... [16]

Battle For Iraqi Oil Heats Up After Iran-Saudi Deal

Iraq’s crude oil production has been stuck between the 4.0-4.7 million barrels per day (bpd) level since 2016, with a mean average of about 4.5 million bpd during that period, but it could relatively straightforwardly produce 12 million bpd – way more than Saudi Arabia’s true crude oil production average of 8.2 million from 1973 to last Friday. Key elements needed for Iraq to increase its crude oil production to this elevated level are contained in the US$27 billion four-pronged deal agreed with TotalEnergies but there are now doubts that all or part of this deal will proceed as planned. Following the recent landmark resumption of relations between Iran - which retains enormous influence over Iraq through political, military and economic proxies - and Saudi Arabia, brokered by China (and Russia to a lesser degree), it was made clear to Iran it should do all it could to stop major deals being done in Iraq by Western companies. Specifically, a source who works closely with the European Union’s energy security apparatus exclusively told OilPrice.com last week, Iran was told by a very high-ranking official from the Kremlin that: “By keeping the West out of energy deals in Iraq – and closer to the new Iran-Saudi axis - the end of Western hegemony in the Middle East will become the decisive chapter in the West’s final demise”. Click here to read... [17]

Strategic

Analysis: Xi's chief of staff Cai Qi is symbol of powerful court

The biggest news to emerge out of Xi's Moscow visit was unrelated to diplomacy; it was the sight of an unexpected figure stepping off the aircraft shortly after Xi -- Cai Qi, one of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the Chinese Communist Party's top decision-making body. State-run Chinese media introduced Cai's new position: director of the party's General Office, a role that serves as Xi's de facto chief of staff. It was perhaps the most important personnel change in the party since the national congress ended in October. The choice of Cai was unconventional in more ways than one. First, past directors have come from the wider 24-member Politburo, not the top seven. Second, Xi had never been accompanied by a Politburo Standing Committee member on previous overseas trips. Cai, Xi's trusted close aide, was the first to do so. The appointment gives a glimpse into the future of China's domestic politics. The chief of staff controls who meets the top leader and handles the schedule book. The choice of Cai, who ranks fifth in the party hierarchy, drastically changes the nature of the post. Cai will likely play a role similar to that of Japan's chief cabinet secretary, who controls all government ministries and agencies from the prime minister's office. At the Kremlin, Cai sat next to Xi during the China-Russia summit. Click here to read... [18]

PLA Navy stages live-fire drill as Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen transits in the United States

The Chinese navy sent three warships for live-fire drills in the East China Sea in the countdown to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s expected meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy this week. The People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theatre Command said on April 02 that the frigate Xiangtan, guided-missile destroyer Taiyuan, and destroyer Taizhou conducted a combat drill in the waters “recently”. It did not say when or where the exercises took place but footage and photos posted online show the warships conducting live-fire drills against “enemy warships”. The command also said more than 10 training courses were conducted to “further test the cooperative combat capability of the ship formation”, with the three warships “ready to fight at any time”. The statement did not refer to “Taiwan” directly but Chinese analysts said that given the drill was carried out by the command that oversees the Taiwan Strait, it was a clear response to Tsai’s transit through the United States. The exercise also indicated that a “strong” countermeasure could follow if Tsai met McCarthy, the third-ranked US official. Beijing has warned repeatedly against the US transit. On April 03, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning repeated Beijing’s opposition to any form of official contact between the US and Taiwanese authorities. Click here to read... [19]

China’s intensifying nuclear-armed submarine patrols add complexity for U.S., allies

China is for the first time keeping at least one nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine constantly at sea, according to a Pentagon report--adding pressure on the United States and its allies as they try to counter Beijing’s growing military. The assessment of China’s military said China’s fleet of six Jin-class ballistic missile submarines were operating “near-continuous” patrols from Hainan Island into the South China Sea. Equipped with a new, longer-range ballistic missile, they can hit the continental United States, analysts say. The note in the 174-page report drew little attention when it was released in late November, but shows crucial improvements in Chinese capabilities, according to four regional military attaches familiar with naval operations and five other security analysts. Even as the AUKUS deal will see Australia field its first nuclear-powered submarines over the next two decades, the constant Chinese ballistic missile patrols at sea pile strain on the resources of the United States and its allies as they intensify Cold War-style deployments. “We’re going to want to have our SSNs trying to tail them... so the extra demands on our assets are clear,” said Christopher Twomey, a security scholar at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in California, speaking in a private capacity. SSN is a U.S. designation for a nuclear-powered attack sub. “But the point here is that the information--the near continuous patrols--has changed so rapidly that we don’t know what else has changed.” Click here to read... [20]

China says it’s open to more military cooperation with Russia

The Chinese military is willing to boost cooperation with Russia, including more joint drills and air and sea patrols, the defence ministry said on March 30. The two countries would work together to build trust between their militaries, safeguard international fairness and justice, as well as implement the Global Security Initiative, a Chinese project to promote peace, Tan Kefei, a defence ministry spokesman, told a regular press briefing. “The Chinese military is willing to work together with the Russian military to fully implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, further strengthening strategic communication and coordination,” Tan said, referring to the recent meeting in Moscow between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Earlier this month China, Russia and Iran held a five-day exercise in the Gulf of Oman, which Tan described as “enhancing the capabilities of the three countries to jointly carry out diversified maritime military missions, further deepening traditional friendship and practical cooperation, and contributing positively to maintaining maritime security”. The exercise featured 12 ships from the three countries, with China – which has had a limited naval presence in the region until now – sending the advanced guided-missile destroyer Nanning. Tan said China and Russia’s relationship was not like the alliances of the Cold War, because it was based on the principles of non-confrontation and did not target third parties. Click here to read... [21]

Moscow outlines Ukraine peace demands

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin has offered a ten-point list of steps the government in Kiev needs to take in order for hostilities to cease. In an interview on March 29, Galuzin said the future of Ukraine itself will depend on how soon Kiev and its Western backers come to grips with reality. For Ukraine to bring about peace, its military forces must stand down and the West must halt all deliveries of weapons to Kiev, Galuzin told the outlet RTVI. Several other conditions he listed have been on the table since the hostilities escalated in February 2022, such as Ukraine’s demilitarization and “denazification,” a pledge to never join the EU or NATO, and the affirmation of Kiev’s non-nuclear status. Another was added in October 2022, and involves the recognition of “new territorial realities” – commonly understood to mean the decision of Kherson, Zaporozhye and the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk to join Russia. Ensuring the protection of the Russian language and the rights of Russian-speaking citizens, as well as all other ethnic groups in Ukraine was also on Galuzin’s list. Moreover, he said Ukraine needs to reopen the border with Russia and restore the legal framework of relations with Moscow and other ex-Soviet republics, which it renounced following the US-backed coup in 2014. Click here to read... [22]

Russia’s revised foreign policy doctrine: Key points

Offering a glimpse into the nation’s strategic priorities beyond its borders, Russia has released its updated foreign policy doctrine, signed into effect by President Vladimir Putin on March 31. With significant implications for Moscow’s relationships with key players around the world, the document will undoubtedly be closely scrutinized in the weeks ahead. Putin explained that the need to review the document was caused by “drastic changes” in the international landscape, including what Moscow described as an ongoing “hybrid war” waged by the West against Russia over its actions in Ukraine. ‘Major threat’ to international peace: The updated foreign policy doctrine labels the “aggressive anti-Russian policy” of the US and its allies as a major risk to Russia’s security, as well as to international peace and the development of a “just and balanced” future for humanity. Russia believes that Washington and its allies are seeking to stop the erosion of a world order that allowed them to enjoy advanced economic growth at the expense of non-Western nations by exploiting their resources. The West “refuses to recognize the realities of a multipolar world” and aims to eliminate military and economic competition, as well as crackdown on dissent, the document asserts. The US in particular sees Russia’s independent policy as a threat to “Western hegemony,” the new policy claims, arguing that America and its allies have launched a “hybrid war” against Moscow aimed at weakening Russia “in every way possible.” Click here to read... [23]

Korea, China, Japan may resume three-way summit this year: Seoul official

A trilateral summit between Korea, China and Japan could take place this year if there are no "major obstacles," a senior Seoul foreign ministry official said April 04. The remarks are seen as further raising prospects of the resumption of three-way summit diplomacy following a recent attempt to mend long-strained ties between Seoul and Tokyo. The official told reporters the ministry was "in consultations with relevant countries" over the summit and added that "positive signals" on the matter were delivered during a recent foreign ministerial meeting between Beijing and Tokyo. Three-way summits among the regional neighbors, first held in December 2008, were suspended after the eighth gathering held in December 2019 following a dispute between Korea and Japan over forced labor compensation rulings and the pandemic. Talks on the need to revive tripartite summit diplomacy have surfaced following a summit between Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last month. Click here to read... [24]

China spy facility speculation swirls over Cambodia, Myanmar

China may be on a spy infrastructure-building spree in Myanmar and Cambodia, deftly leveraging these countries’ security and economic troubles to advance its geopolitical interests. This month, Economic Times reported that satellite imagery from US-based Maxar Technologies showed renewed construction activities on Myanmar’s Great Coco Island, including a freshly-lengthened 2,300-meter runway. The report also mentions other signs of increased military activity in recent months, such as the construction of hangars and a radar station. It says these activities have led to suspicions that China is behind the infrastructure buildup, turning Coco Island into its listening post in the Indian Ocean, although this has not been proven. Beijing has cultivated good ties with Myanmar’s coup-installed junta at a time Western nations have sanctioned the regime. At the same time, Cambodia Daily reported that the Cambodian government revealed plans last week to develop an air defense center and expand a radar system near the China-funded Ream Naval Base. The report mentions that Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen allocated 157 hectares to the Ministry of National Defense to develop an air defense command and general headquarters in September 2022. An additional 30 hectares were earmarked for a naval radar system. Click here to read... [25]

Japan parliament set to approve record $870bn budget for FY2023

Japan's parliament on March 28 is poised to approve a record 114.38 trillion yen ($870 billion) budget for the fiscal year that begins next week, with big outlays going to shore up the economy and to defense. Japan has earmarked a record 6.82 trillion yen for the first year of a five-year period, intending to achieve a substantial boost in defense spending to cope with an increasingly assertive China, a nuclear-armed North Korea and a volatile Russia. The government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hopes to achieve a combined 43 trillion yen in defense spending by fiscal 2027, aiming to double its annual budget to around 2% of gross domestic product from the current 1%. The approval of the state budget by the upper house comes at a time when the debt-ridden nation has been ramping up spending to ease the burden put on households by rising prices of everyday goods. Core consumer inflation has already hit a four-decade high, mostly due to higher energy and raw material costs amplified by a weaker yen. The powerful lower house approved the draft budget in February, meaning that under the Constitution it must be enacted before the new fiscal year begins. Both houses of parliament are controlled by a ruling coalition made up of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito. Click here to read... [26]

Philippines identifies four new sites for U.S. military in new pact

The Philippines on April 03 identified four additional bases the United States will have access to under a defense agreement aimed at expanding a decades-old military alliance between them. The announcement of the sites, which adds to five already in use under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), comes amid growing concern over China's increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea and tension over Taiwan. The sites named on Monday by the office of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr are the Camilo Osias navy base in Sta Ana and Lal-lo airport, both in Cagayan province, Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela province and Balabac, Palawan. Isabela and Cagayan are on the main island of Luzon, facing north toward Taiwan, while Palawan is near the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The four locations were "seen to boost the disaster response of the country as the locations will also be used for humanitarian and relief operations during emergencies and natural disasters," the president's office said in a statement. The new EDCA locations are on top of five existing sites -- the Antonio Bautista Air Base in Palawan, Basa Air Base in Pampanga, Fort Magsaysay in Nueva Ecija, Benito Ebuen Air Base in Cebu and Lumbia Air Base in Mindanao. Click here to read... [27]

White House discussing ‘freeze for freeze’ nuclear deal with Iran – media

The Biden administration is discussing a potential deal that would see Iran halt progress on parts of its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, Axios reported on April 03. American officials have discussed the hypothetical agreement with their European and Israeli counterparts in recent weeks, the news site reported, citing unnamed Israeli officials, Western diplomats, and “US experts.” Under the US proposal, Iran would reportedly halt uranium enrichment at 60% purity in exchange for the lifting of some Western sanctions on its economy. According to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in February, Iran has enriched nearly 88 kilograms of uranium to 60% purity and trace amounts to 83.7%. Uranium must be enriched to 90% to be considered weapons-grade. Tehran denies that it is seeking a nuclear weapon, and the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran responded to the IAEA by insisting that it is not attempting to enrich beyond 60%. According to Axios’ sources, the US proposal has been rejected by Iran. Officials in Tehran reportedly said that they don’t want to sign an agreement with worse terms than the 2015 nuclear deal. The White House refused to confirm or deny the latest report, which a spokesperson dismissed as “second-hand rumors about diplomatic discussions.” Click here to read... [28]

UN mission accuses EU of aiding crimes against humanity in Libya

United Nations investigators say there is evidence that crimes against humanity have been committed against Libyans and migrants stuck in Libya, including women being forced into sexual slavery. The investigators commissioned by the UN Human Rights Council also faulted the European Union for sending support to Libyan forces that they say contributed to crimes against migrants and Libyans. Investigators said they are deeply concerned by the deteriorating human rights situation in war-scarred Libya, noting there are grounds to believe a wide array of war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed by state security forces and armed militia groups. Their findings come in an extensive new report, based on interviews with hundreds of people, including migrants and witnesses that wraps up a fact-finding mission created nearly three years ago to probe rights violations and abuses in the North African country. The investigators said they collected at least 2,800 items of information documenting numerous cases of arbitrary detention, murder, torture, rape, enslavement, sexual slavery, extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances that confirmed their widespread practice in Libya. “It is clear that there was a pattern of violation of human rights and international humanitarian law. Particularly in places of detention as well as in relation to migrants,” investigator Chaloka Beyani told Al Jazeera. Click here to read... [29]

Trump charged with 34 felony counts in hush money scheme

A stone-faced Donald Trump, making a historically momentous court appearance as the only ex-president to be charged with a crime, was confronted with a 34-count felony indictment April 04 accusing him in a scheme to bury negative information during his first campaign. The arraignment in a Manhattan courtroom, though largely procedural in nature, was nonetheless a stunning ― and humbling ― spectacle for the former president, putting him face-to-face with prosecutors who bluntly accused him of criminal conduct and setting the stage for a possible criminal trial in the city where he decades ago became a celebrity. The indictment centers on allegations that Trump sought to illegally influence the 2016 election by arranging payments designed to silence claims that he feared would be harmful to his candidacy. It includes 34 counts of falsified business documents for checks that Trump sent to his personal lawyer and problem-solver to reimburse him for his role in paying off a porn actor who said she had an extramarital sexual encounter with Trump years earlier. "The defendant, Donald J. Trump, falsified New York business records in order to conceal an illegal conspiracy to undermine the integrity of the 2016 presidential election and other violations of election laws," said Assistant District Attorney Christopher Conroy. Click here to read... [30]

Indonesia football in self-defeating anti-Israel stand

When sports and politics collide, there is always a loser. In this latest case, it is Indonesia, which lost the right to host the forthcoming International Federation of Association Football’s (FIFA) Under-20 World Cup this week after the ruling Indonesian Democrat Party for Struggle (PDI-P) sought to ban Israel from the tournament. Although their relationship has always been testy, the controversy appears to reveal an open split between President Joko Widodo and PDI-P chairman and former president Megawati Sukarnoputri only 11 months from next year’s presidential and legislative elections. The pair had last met at the Bogor palace on March 18 to discuss preparations for the February elections, presumably focused to some extent on Megawati’s choice of a presidential candidate, a decision she is not expected to announce until at least June. Megawati loyalists based their argument for Israel’s expulsion on Indonesia’s stand against colonialism – and Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine – which is embodied in the 1945 Constitution and remains a key part of the foreign policy laid out by her father, founding President Sukarno. “Strengthening our ideology (Pancasila) is very important,” PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto, one of Megawati’s closest retainers, said in a statement. “Don’t, for example, compromise our ideology for the sake of the market.” Click here to read... [31]

High activity spotted at North Korea nuclear complex after Kim's bomb-fuel order-report

Satellite images show a high level of activity at North Korea's main nuclear site, a U.S. think tank reported on Saturday after the North Korean leader ordered an increase in production of bomb fuel to expand the country's nuclear arsenal. The Washington-based 38 North North Korea monitoring project said the activity it had spotted, based on images from March 3 and 17, could indicate that an Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) at the Yongbyon site was nearing completion and transition to operational status. The report said the images showed that a 5 megawatt reactor at Yongbyon continued to operate and that construction had started on a support building around the ELWR. Further, water discharges had been detected from that reactor's cooling system. New construction had also started around Yongbyon's uranium enrichment plant, likely to expand its capabilities. "These developments seem to reflect Kim Jong Un's recent directive to increase the country's fissile material production to expand its nuclear weapons arsenal," the report added, referring to the North Korean leader. On March 28, North Korea unveiled new, smaller nuclear warheads and vowed to produce more weapons-grade nuclear material to expand its arsenal, while denouncing stepped up military exercises by South Korea and the United States. Click here to read... [32]

Health

One in six people worldwide affected by infertility: WHO

About one in six people around the world are affected by infertility during their lifetime, according to a new report from the World Health Organization (WHO), which says more work needs to be done to improve access to affordable, high-quality fertility care. The UN’s health agency says about 17.5 percent of the adult population experience infertility, with little variation in the prevalence of infertility between different parts of the world. Lifetime prevalence was 17.8 percent in high-income countries and 16.5 percent in low- and middle-income countries. “The report reveals an important truth – infertility does not discriminate,” Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO’s director-general said in a statement. “The sheer proportion of people affected shows the need to widen access to fertility care and ensure this issue is no longer sidelined in health research and policy so that safe, effective, and affordable ways to attain parenthood are available for those who seek it.” Infertility is a disease of the male or female reproductive system, defined by the failure to achieve a pregnancy after 12 months or more of trying. For those affected, it can cause significant distress, stigma, and financial hardship, affecting their mental and psychosocial wellbeing, the WHO said. Most medical care for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of infertility, including assisted reproductive technology such as in vitro fertilisation (IVF), remain underfunded and inaccessible to many due to the high cost and limited availability. Click here to read... [33]