Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 20 March - 26 March, 2023

Economic

World Bank predicts ‘lost decade’

Average potential global economic growth could slump to a three-decade low of 2.2% per year through 2030, the World Bank warned on March 27, citing the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, and the ongoing risks to the financial sector in the US and EU. According to the report, all these factors are weighing on the global economy, which the bank expects to expand by just 1.7% this year. “A lost decade could be in the making for the global economy,” the World Bank’s chief economist, Indermit Gill, said. “The ongoing decline in potential growth has serious implications for the world’s ability to tackle the expanding array of challenges unique to our times – stubborn poverty, diverging incomes, and climate change.” World Bank analysts have warned that things could get worse, with steeper declines in potential growth if a global financial crisis or recession occurs. “The slowdown we are describing ... could be much sharper if another global financial crisis erupts, especially if that crisis is accompanied by a global recession,” the director of the World Bank’s forecasting group, Ayhan Kose, was quoted by Reuters as saying. The Washington-based institution predicts that low investment will also slow growth in developing economies, with their average GDP growth dropping to 4% for the rest of the 2020s, from 5% in 2011-21 and 6% from 2000-10. Click here to read... [2]

U.S. Bank Failures Pose Risk to Global Growth

Turmoil in the U.S. banking sector isn’t just a problem for the U.S. It also increases the risks of a global recession. Many economists expected a significant downturn in global economic growth this year even before U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, because of an expected pullback in spending and investment in the U.S. and Europe amid climbing interest rates. Those concerns eased somewhat early in the year, with data showing surprising economic vitality in Western economies, and the beginnings of a revival in China after Beijing in December ditched its zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19. But now some pessimism is creeping back. Though economists broadly believe that a full-blown financial crisis isn’t likely, they also see heightened risks to global growth from a shaken banking sector and the specter of tightening credit. “It is potentially a rather perilous time for the world economy,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy and economics at Cornell University. Piling banking-sector problems on top of rising interest rates in advanced economies “could have spillover effects across the globe,” he said. The immediate risk is that banks in the U.S. keep a tighter leash on lending to American households and businesses to ensure their balance sheets stay healthy and depositors sleep easy, economists say. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that such a scenario is “potentially quite real” and could “easily have a significant macroeconomic effect.” Click here to read... [3]

G7 central banks to boost dollar funding

The US Federal Reserve and five other major central banks launched a coordinated effort on March 19 to boost the flow of US dollars in the global financial system via swap line arrangements, the regulators announced in a joint statement. Apart from the Fed, the action was joined by the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and Swiss National Bank. The move will “enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing US dollar liquidity swap line arrangements” by increasing the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. Swap lines are agreements between two central banks to exchange currencies, usually with the aim of allowing one of the central banks to obtain liquidity in a foreign currency that can then be forwarded to commercial banks in that country that need the funding. The operations will begin on March 20 and are slated to continue at least through the end of April. The measure is aimed at “serv[ing] as an important liquidity backstop to ease strains in global funding markets, thereby helping to mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses,” the monetary authorities stated. The announcement came after UBS, Switzerland’s largest lender, agreed to buy embattled Credit Suisse in a deal brokered by the Swiss government. Click here to read... [4]

China Settles First LNG Trade In Yuan

China has just completed its first trade of liquefied natural gas (LNG) settled in yuan, the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange said on March 28. Chinese state oil and gas giant CNOOC and TotalEnergies completed the first LNG trade on the exchange with settlement in the Chinese currency, the exchange said in a statement carried by Reuters. The trade involved around 65,000 tons of LNG imported from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange added. The French supermajor, one of the world’s top LNG traders, confirmed to Reuters that the trade involved LNG imported from the UAE, but declined to comment further on the deal. During a landmark visit to Riyadh in December, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China and the Arab Gulf nations should use the Shanghai Petroleum and National Gas Exchange as a platform to carry out yuan settlement of oil and gas trades. “China will continue to import large quantities of crude oil from GCC countries, expand imports of liquefied natural gas, strengthen cooperation in upstream oil and gas development, engineering services, storage, transportation and refining, and make full use of the Shanghai Petroleum and National Gas Exchange as a platform to carry out yuan settlement of oil and gas trade,” Xi said in December, as carried by Reuters. Click here to read... [5]

Saudi Aramco To Build $10 Billion Refinery And Petrochemical Complex In China

Saudi Aramco plans to build a $10-billion refining and petrochemical complex in China over the next three years, taking advantage of the country’s growing demand for energy. The complex will have a capacity of 300,000 barrels of crude daily, Aramco said in a news release. The Saudi major will supply 201,000 barrels per day to the facility. The project will be carried out in partnership between Aramco and two Chinese companies. Construction works should begin in the second half of this year, with the project scheduled for completion in 2026. “This important project will support China’s growing demand across fuel and chemical products. It also represents a major milestone in our ongoing downstream expansion strategy in China and the wider region, which is an increasingly significant driver of global petrochemical demand,” said Aramco’s head of downstream, Mohammed Al Qahtani. The news follows another report, from December last year, that said Aramco had struck a deal with China’s Sinopec to build a 320,000-bpd refinery and petrochemical cracker in China, highlighting the latter’s major role in global oil consumption yet again. Refining and petrochemical investments have been a priority for Aramco as it seeks to secure long-term demand for its main product, even as it expands local refining capacity as well. Click here to read... [6]

Alibaba to overhaul China’s biggest tech conglomerate into 6 units to reignite their entrepreneurial mojo as ‘start-ups’

Alibaba Group Holding will overhaul its sprawling US$257 billion empire, as China’s largest technology conglomerate undertakes its biggest corporate restructuring since its establishment more than two decades ago in Jack Ma’s Hangzhou apartment. The company will reorganise its businesses into six independently run entities: Cloud Intelligence Group, e-commerce under Taobao-Tmall, Cainiao’s smart logistics operations, Local Services group, Global Digital Business Group, and the Digital Media and Entertainment Group, according to a letter to employees on March 28. Each of the business units will have to face the test of market forces individually, and find their own path to compete, including the possibility of seeking their own fundraising avenues through initial public offerings (IPOs), said Alibaba, owner of the South China Morning Post. The business units will separately set up their own boards of directors. Alibaba will also set up corporate entities for other operations following a “1+6+N” structure, with 1 referring to the group, 6 referring to the six business units, and N referring to future business units, according to the letter. Alibaba’s share price shot up 10.5 per cent to US$95.43 at the start of trading in New York following the announcement of the plan. Click here to read... [7]

Germany, EU Reach Deal on Combustion-Engine Plan

The European Union reached a deal with Germany that is expected to water down the bloc’s plan to effectively ban new internal combustion-engine cars from 2035, Berlin and Brussels said on March 25. The EU is pursuing an ambitious plan to fight climate-change-causing greenhouse-gas emissions that relies heavily on the mass adoption of electric vehicles. A compromise reached last October saw lawmakers agree to the effective ban but said that the European Commission, the bloc’s executive body, could put forward additional rules allowing for the continued sale of new vehicles that use so-called synthetic fuels, which can burn like gasoline and diesel but release fewer climate-damaging emissions. Berlin wanted those plans put forward quickly and in recent weeks had threatened to block the legislation unless Brussels moved forward with rules to allow cars running on the so-called e-fuels to be sold after 2035. “The way is clear: Europe remains technology-neutral,” he tweeted. “We secure opportunities for Europe by retaining important options for climate-neutral and affordable mobility.” Frans Timmermans, the EU’s executive vice president in charge of climate policy, said the bloc will now work on getting the CO2 standards for car regulation adopted as soon as possible. The commission will quickly follow up with the necessary legal steps, he said. Click here to read... [8]

Putin highlights EU’s growing dependence on China

Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed claims of Russia’s growing economic dependence on China, saying in an interview with Russia 24 TV on March 24 that Brussels has much more to worry about in this regard than Moscow. When asked by interviewer Pavel Zarubin about Moscow’s alleged overreliance on trade with Beijing, Putin replied by saying that those are the “words not of skeptics but of enviers.” According to the president, there have always been forces seeking to drive a wedge first between China and the USSR and later between China and Russia. The Russian leader also warned that the EU should be worried not about Russia’s trade policies but about its own relations with Beijing. “Dependence of the European economy on China … is growing much faster than that of Russia,” he said, adding that “trade volume between China and the ‘united Europe’ is increasing at a very high rate.” “They [the EU] should rather look after themselves,” the president added. According to the EU statistics agency, Eurostat, trade volumes between the bloc and China have been steadily growing since at least 2015, with a particularly high growth rate over the past two years. Between 2012 and 2022, EU imports from China nearly tripled, with chemicals, machinery and what are classified as “other manufactured goods” accounting for the lion’s share of Beijing’s exports to the bloc. The EU’s own exports to China almost doubled over the same period. Click here to read... [9]

Japan plans $75 billion investment across Indo-Pacific to counter China

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on March 20 announced a new plan to promote an open and free Indo-Pacific, promising billions of dollars in investment to help economies across the region in everything from industry to disaster prevention. The plan he announced in New Delhi is seen as Tokyo's bid to forge stronger ties with countries in South and Southeast Asia to counter China's growing assertiveness there. Kishida also said Japan wanted Russia's invasion of Ukraine to end as soon as possible and called on the "Global South," a broad term referring to countries in Africa, Asia, Oceania and Latin America, to "show solidarity" after his talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Kishida said there were four "pillars" to Japan's new Indo-Pacific plan: maintaining peace, dealing with new global issues in cooperation with Indo-Pacific countries, achieving global connectivity through various platforms, and ensuring the safety of the open seas and skies. Japan pledged $75 billion to the region by 2030 via private investment and yen loans and by ramping up aid through official governmental assistance and grants. "We plan to expand the cooperation of the free and open Indo-Pacific framework," Kishida told the Indian Council of World Affairs. He emphasised the increasing connectivity among countries and promoting freedom of navigation, with an eye on increasing maritime defence and security among like-minded countries. Click here to read... [10]

Japan, South Korea drop export claims against each other

Japan and South Korea almost simultaneously dropped their export claims against each other on March 23 in the latest sign of improving ties. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced that effective March 23 the country would lift export controls of three key semi-conductor-related materials imposed in 2019 against South Korea, while Seoul said it would drop its complaint with the World Trade Organization over the issue. The two sides agreed to the plan as part of their recent effort to improve ties and the announcement came a week after their leaders agreed to work past their troubled history and mend ties so they can better respond together to growing regional threats. The announcement came hours after South Korea’s unification minister and senior Japanese government officials reaffirmed their close cooperation in response to North Korea’s escalating missile threats at a rare meeting. Kwon Youngse is in Tokyo for talks with Japanese ministers and top governing party officials, becoming the first unification minister to do so in 18 years. His trip comes on the heels of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last week, when they agreed to resume regular visits and launch high-level talks on security, trade and other issues. Click here to read... [11]

TikTok CEO: App has never shared U.S. data with Chinese government

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew will tell lawmakers the Chinese-owned short video app with more than 150 million American users has never, and would never, share U.S. user data with the Chinese government amid growing U.S. national security concerns. “TikTok has never shared, or received a request to share, U.S. user data with the Chinese government. Nor would TikTok honor such a request if one were ever made,” Chew will testify on March 23, according to written testimony posted on March 21 by the House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee. He added that TikTok’s parent company ByteDance is not owned or controlled by any government or state entity. “Let me state this unequivocally: ByteDance is not an agent of China or any other country,” Chew will say to the committee. TikTok’s critics fear that its U.S. user data could be passed on to China’s government by the app and prompted growing calls to ban the app by U.S. lawmakers. Last week, TikTok said the Biden administration demanded that its Chinese owners divest their stake in the app or it could face a U.S. ban. “Bans are only appropriate when there are no alternatives. But we do have an alternative,” Chew’s testimony said. TikTok has said it has spent more than $1.5 billion on what it calls rigorous data security efforts under the name “Project Texas.” Chew said when the process is complete “all protected U.S. data will be under the protection of U.S. law and under the control of the U.S.-led security team. Click here to read... [12]

U.S. readies targeted screening for investment in Chinese tech

The U.S. is considering trialing a mechanism for reviewing outbound investment into China, eyeing a relatively narrow set of sensitive industries after businesses lobbied against a broad initial proposal. The program, intended to block spending that could help Beijing develop more-advanced military gear, would require companies to notify Washington in advance of potentially problematic investments. The concept has been described as a "reverse CFIUS," referring to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, an interagency body that reviews foreign investment in the U.S. and allows the president to block moves deemed security threats. An executive order on the program could come within weeks or months, according to U.S. media reports. It would mark a further step in the decoupling of the American and Chinese economies, restricting capital flows after October's sweeping semiconductor export curbs limited the movement of goods and people. Lawmakers and officials have been working on an outbound investment screening mechanism since President Joe Biden took office in 2021, but objections from the business community over the prospect of increased red tape and lost opportunities have delayed its implementation. Reports this month from the Commerce and Treasury departments indicated that final policy decisions will come soon. Both statements assert that the program would "focus on investments that could result in the advancement of military and dual-use technologies by countries of concern." Click here to read... [13]

Myanmar faces 80% decrease in students taking matriculation exam

The number of Myanmar students who took matriculation exams this year fell to one-fifth of the level during the time of the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi before the military seized power in February 2021. The Ministry of Education held the exam from March 8 to 18, and only 160,000 students took it. In the last exam held before the COVID-19 pandemic, in March 2019, more than 910,000 students participated. The annual exam is taken by students in their final year of high school. It is considered the most important exam for Myanmar students because the results determine which universities or colleges they can enroll in, and even their majors. After the military takeover, the regime held its first matriculation exam in March 2022, in which 280,000 students participated. The head count further plunged this year. A teacher at a private school in Yangon explained that one reason behind the sharp decline is the economic situation. "For matriculation students, tuition and additional classes outside the school remain essential to get passes and high scores. That costs have become a burden for many families facing socioeconomic hardships due to COVID-19," the teacher said, adding the military takeover also has been "pushing students away from taking the matriculation exam and giving up." Some students from middle-income families are also shifting to private or international schools to boycott public education under the military regime. Click here to read... [14]

China slashing foreign subscriber access to key research database

Foreign universities and research institutions say their access to China's largest academic database is about to be cut, deepening concerns that researching the country will become even tougher as Beijing tightens data security. Libraries around the world -- including those at City University of Hong Kong, the University of California, San Diego and Taiwan's Institute of Chinese Literature and Philosophy -- have been notified that their access to China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) will be curtailed from April 1 as the company moves to ensure that its "cross-border services are in compliance with the law." It was not clear how many institutions have received the March 17 notice. But at least a dozen confirmed to Nikkei Asia that they got the notification and added that other institutions had received it as well. The number of foreign subscribers is not publicly available. CNKI did not reply to requests for comment about the matter. The database, which lets academics and students obtain thousands of research papers and documents online, provides access to 95% of China's academic journals dating back to 1915. It is a critical tool for scholars who are unable to access mainland Chinese libraries in person, and CNKI has a monopoly over distribution of this information. The notice, seen by Nikkei Asia, was sent by the database's operator, Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology. Click here to read... [15]

China spent $240 billion bailing out ‘Belt & Road’ countries--study

China spent $240 billion bailing out 22 developing countries between 2008 and 2021, with the amount soaring in recent years as more have struggled to repay loans spent building “Belt & Road” infrastructure, according to a study published March 28. Almost 80% of the rescue lending was made between 2016 and 2021, mainly to middle-income countries including Argentina, Mongolia and Pakistan, according to the report by researchers from the World Bank, Harvard Kennedy School, AidData and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. China has lent hundreds of billions of dollars to build infrastructure in developing countries, but lending has tailed off since 2016 as many projects have failed to pay the expected financial dividends. “Beijing is ultimately trying to rescue its own banks. That’s why it has gotten into the risky business of international bailout lending,” said Carmen Reinhart, a former World Bank chief economist and one of the study’s authors. Chinese loans to countries in debt distress soared from less than 5% of its overseas lending portfolio in 2010 to 60% in 2022, the study found. Argentina received the most, with $111.8 billion, followed Pakistan on $48.5 billion and Egypt with $15.6 billion. Nine countries received less than $1 billion. People’s Bank of China (PBOC) swap lines accounted for $170 billion of the rescue financing, including in Suriname, Sri Lanka and Egypt. Bridge loans or balance of payments support by Chinese state-owned banks was $70 billion. Rollovers of both kinds of loan were $140 billion. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Xi, Putin signal unity against U.S. in joint statement

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a joint statement calling for deeper bilateral ties following their March 21 summit, where they discussed issues including Ukraine and Taiwan. At a joint news conference after the summit, Xi said China would continue to push for "peace and dialogue." He urged Moscow and Kyiv to resume peace talks, echoing their joint statement on deepening their countries' comprehensive and strategic cooperation. Putin said China's 12-point peace plan for Ukraine unveiled last month could serve as a "basis" for a peaceful resolution once Ukraine and the West were willing to engage. But he added that they did not appear ready at this time. The two leaders also issued a joint statement regarding bilateral economic cooperation through 2030, outlining plans to deepen ties in eight fields from trade to logistics. In terms of energy, Putin told reporters that the countries had essentially fully agreed on building a second gas pipeline from Russia to China. The goal is to transport at least 98 billion cu. meters of natural gas to China by 2030, Putin said. Russia aims to expand natural gas exports to China as sanctions squeeze sales to Europe. Putin had made similar comments on the pipeline last year, though certain details of the proposed pipeline still need to be worked out. Click here to read... [17]

Russia to power China’s nuclear weapon ambitions

Russia plans to provide fast breeder nuclear reactor technology to China, an agreement that could allow Beijing to significantly grow its nuclear arsenal and tip the prevailing global balance of nuclear weapons. This month, Bloomberg reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping announced a long-term agreement to continue developing fast breeder nuclear reactors optimized for plutonium production for nuclear weapons. The report notes that in December 2022, Russia’s-state owned Rosatom nuclear power company finished transferring 25 tons of highly-enriched uranium to China’s CFR-600 nuclear reactor, which analysts say has the capacity to produce 50 nuclear warheads a year. US Department of Defense (DOD) officials and US military planners have assessed that the CFR-600 will be critical in building China’s nuclear arsenal from 400 warheads today to 1,500 by 2035. China has rejected this assessment, however, arguing that the CFR-600 is connected to its civilian power grid and is part of a US$440 billion program to overtake the US as the world’s top nuclear energy generator by the middle of the next decade, news reports said. Russia’s ramped up nuclear assistance to China was announced during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with his Russian counterpart, where the two leaders announced a raft of new agreements. Click here to read... [18]

With a diplomatic flurry, European leaders will push China on peacemaking claim

European leaders are heading to Beijing in their droves to test for substance in China’s self-appointed status as a global peacemaker. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will sit down with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week. Next week, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen will follow suit. Top EU diplomat Josep Borrell will head to Beijing – likely en route to the G7 foreign ministers summit in Japan on April 16 – for “strategic dialogue” with foreign minister Qin Gang.Each will attempt to convince China not to provide arms to Russia, amid fears in Europe that such a move could help start World War III. There is belief in Western European capitals that China wading in militarily would tip the balance permanently in Moscow’s favour, while it could also usher in a broader conflict involving Nato and the United States. Government figures, speaking privately, also said that if the West did not continue to push China on the weapons issue, Beijing may believe it can get away with arming Moscow. “Xi is surrounded by ‘yes men’,” said one official. “He does not hear these things often enough. A Western European diplomat added that expectations about the trips were reasonably low, “but the very point of going and making these points in person makes them worthwhile”. Click here to read... [19]

Senior US official’s China trip seen as ‘beneficial’ but no icebreaker

A visit last week by the head of the US State Department’s new “China House” unit suggests Beijing is taking a more cautious approach to dealing with Washington, but observers say a diplomatic breakthrough is unlikely. Rick Waters – who is also the deputy assistant secretary of state for China, Taiwan and Mongolia – was in Hong Kong last week, according to a source with knowledge of the matter. Waters then flew to Shanghai and Beijing, where he met counterparts from the Chinese foreign ministry. The meetings have not been made public. Another source with knowledge of the trip said they were “not aware” of Waters meeting any Hong Kong government officials during his stay in the city. The trip came amid heightened tensions between the two powers over Taiwan as well as China’s warm ties with Russia following President Xi Jinping’s Moscow visit last week. Waters was the first senior US diplomat to visit mainland China since December. That trip saw Daniel Kritenbrink, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, and Laura Rosenberger, National Security Council senior director for China and Taiwan, travel to Langfang, a city near Beijing, ahead of a planned visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Click here to read... [20]

China threatens retaliation if U.S. House speaker meets Taiwan president

China threatened to retaliate on March 29 if U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy meets Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen during her planned transit of the United States next month, saying any such move would be a “provocation.” China, which claims democratically ruled Taiwan as its own territory, has repeatedly warned U.S. officials not to meet Tsai, viewing it as support for the island’s desire to be seen as a separate country. China staged war games around Taiwan last August when then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei, and Taiwan’s armed forces have said they are keeping watch for any Chinese moves when Tsai is abroad. Tsai is due to depart on March 29 for a trip to Guatemala and Belize that will see her transit through New York and Los Angeles. While not officially confirmed, she is expected to meet McCarthy while in California, at the end of her trip. Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, told reporters in Beijing that Tsai’s “transits” of the United States were not just her waiting at the airport or hotel, but for her to meet U.S. officials and lawmakers. “If she has contact with U.S. House Speaker McCarthy, it will be another provocation that seriously violates the one-China principle, harms China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and destroys peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” she said. Click here to read... [21]

‘We are all Chinese,’ former Taiwan president says while visiting China

People on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are ethnically Chinese and share the same ancestor, former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou said on March 28 at the start of a historic visit to China that Taiwan’s ruling party has criticized. Ma, in office from 2008-2016, is the first former or current Taiwanese president to visit China since the defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 at the end of a civil war with the Communists. He is visiting amid heightened tension as Beijing uses political and military means to try and pressure democratically governed Taiwan into accepting Chinese sovereignty. Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has questioned why he is visiting just after China took away another Taiwanese diplomatic ally, Honduras, on March 26, leaving the island with official diplomatic ties with only 13 countries. In comments in the eastern Chinese city of Nanjing at the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum, where the man celebrated for overthrowing the last Chinese emperor in 1911 and ushering a republic is buried, Ma praised Sun’s contributions. “People on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese people and are both descendants of the Yan and Yellow Emperors,” Ma said, in comments provided by his office. Ma used wording in Chinese meaning people of Chinese ethnicity, rather than referring to their nationality. Click here to read... [22]

US moving advanced aircraft to Asia, Europe from Middle East

The United States plans to deploy ageing A-10 attack planes to the Middle East as a replacement for more advanced combat aircraft that will be shifted to the Pacific and Europe as tensions with China and Russia intensify, a news report says. The Wall Street Journal reported on March 23 the move, scheduled for April, is part of a broader plan that also calls for retaining modest naval and ground forces in the Middle East region, according to American officials. Pentagon spokesman Brigadier-General Patrick Ryder told the Journal the “global force management process is dynamic, and the secretary of defence makes decisions based on threats to our forces and our national security interests”. Ryder declined to discuss the specifics of the move. The news report said some US officials have criticised the plan to switch out the advanced fighter aircraft for the older A-10 jets, saying it could weaken American military power in the Middle East. The air force’s A-10 close air support attack plane is known as “the tank killer”. “The imperative is to get the most suitable aircraft to the Pacific for the higher threat challenges,” Larry Stutzriem, a retired Air Force major general, was quoted as saying. “The A-10 is still relevant to the mission CENTCOM flies over the Middle East.” The US government has been strengthening an arc of military alliances in the Asia Pacific to better counter China, including in any future confrontation over Taiwan. Click here to read... [23]

North Korea unveils smaller nuclear warheads

North Korea has unveiled new, smaller nuclear warheads as leader Kim Jong Un called for scaling up the production of weapons-grade nuclear material to expand the country's arsenal, state media KCNA said on March 28. KCNA released photos of the warheads, dubbed Hwasan-31, during Kim's visit to the Nuclear Weapons Institute, where he inspected new tactical nuclear weapons and technology for mounting warheads on ballistic missiles, as well as nuclear counterattack operation plans. Experts say the images could indicate progress in miniaturizing warheads that are powerful yet small enough to mount on intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking the U.S. "It has something more powerful in a smaller space. ... That's worrisome," said Kune Y. Suh, professor emeritus of nuclear engineering at Seoul National University, comparing the new warheads to the 2016 version. George William Herbert, an adjunct professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies' Center for Nonproliferation Studies, said the photos showed "a significant size improvement over prior North Korean nuclear weapons, and possibly design advance." Kim ordered the production of weapons-grade materials in a "far-sighted way" to boost its nuclear arsenal "exponentially" and produce powerful weapons, KCNA said. He said the enemy of the country's nuclear forces is not a specific state or group but "war and nuclear disaster themselves," and the policy of expanding North Korea's arsenal is solely aimed at defending the country, and regional peace and stability. Click here to read... [24]

Netanyahu suspends judicial overhaul after day of Israeli turmoil

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paused his signature plan to overhaul Israel's judiciary after a day of nationwide turmoil when workers joined a general strike against the proposal and hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets. The plans by his nationalist religious coalition to hand control over judicial appointments to the executive while giving parliament the power to overturn Supreme Court rulings has ignited one of the biggest internal crises in Israeli history. Announcing his decision late on March 27 to suspend the plans until parliament returns after the break for the Passover holiday and Independence Day next month, Netanyahu said the crisis required all sides to act responsibly. "Israeli society is on a dangerous collision course. We are in the midst of a crisis that is endangering the basic unity between us," he said in a prime-time television address. As he made the address, huge crowds had gathered in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, including a large counter-demonstration by right-wing supporters of the overhaul. Their presence prompted fears of possible violence between the two sides but the evening passed with no reports of major violence. While Netanyahu and his supporters say the plans would ensure a proper balance between the elected government and the judiciary and would not endanger individual and minority rights, they have drawn sustained and furious opposition. Click here to read... [25]

IS-linked extremists infiltrate ASEAN, eyeing Indonesia 2024 polls

Four years after the fall of the Islamic State caliphate in Syria where it lost territories and followers, the extremist group's ideology remains entrenched in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia and the Philippines, where risks of attacks are looming. In Indonesia, a counterterrorism expert warned that IS supporters are working together with former terrorism convicts to form a group to carry out attacks in the run-up to, during and possibly after the country's presidential elections due in 2024. Muh Taufiqurrohman, a senior researcher at the Jakarta-based Center for Radicalism and Deradicalization Studies (PAKAR), told Nikkei Asia this group of IS supporters is targeting polling stations, police and non-Muslims, viewing them as enemies of IS that must be destroyed. "The Indonesian government should watch out for former and current Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) members, ex-convicted terrorists and supporters of Islamic caliphate who are gathering to form an interorganizational group to carry out attacks in 2024," said Taufiqurrohman. This group is working with former terrorism convicts because they have "military skills and access to weapons." Though JAD is the biggest IS affiliate in Indonesia, responsible for some of the major terrorist attacks in the country since 2016, Taufiqurrohman said IS supporters outside of JAD are the most active in Indonesia at the moment, as JAD has been weakened following the arrests of its leaders and many of its members. Click here to read... [26]

S. Korea notifies Japan of ‘normalization’ of GSOMIA pact

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry announced on March 21 that it will “normalize” a vital military intelligence-sharing pact with Japan that it had threatened to scrap in 2019 amid rocky bilateral relations. The ministry communicated to Japan through a diplomatic channel that day the retraction of a notice to withdraw from the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), an issue that has remained unresolved between the two nations. In addition, on the two countries’ removal of each other from their “white list” of preferred trade partners, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol at a meeting in his office on March 21 announced the start of legal procedures to return Japan to its list without waiting for a reciprocal move. The administration of Moon Jae-in, Yoon’s predecessor, sent a notice to Japan in August 2019 that it was terminating the GSOMIA, an agreement that facilitates the sharing of confidential security information between the two nations. With the persuasion of the United States, the Moon administration suspended the effect of the notice but didn’t withdraw it. On March 21, South Korea informed the Japanese side of the withdrawal of both the notice and the suspension of its effect. The notice to terminate the agreement was one of the factors that led to the deterioration in the two countries’ relationship. Click here to read... [27]

Suu Kyi’s party ordered dissolved in military-ruled Myanmar

The political party led by Myanmar’s ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi was ordered dissolved by the military-appointed election commission on March 28 because it failed to register for a planned general election, state television MRTV reported. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, which has denounced the promised polls as a sham, was one of 40 parties that failed to meet the Tuesday deadline for registration, MRTV said. Critics say the still-unscheduled polls will be neither free nor fair in a country ruled by the military that has shut free media and arrested most of the leaders of Suu Kyi’s party. The NLD won a landslide victory in the November 2020 election, only to have the army block all elected lawmakers from taking their seats in Parliament and seize power for itself, detaining top members of Suu Kyi’s government and party. “We absolutely do not accept that an election will be held at a time when many political leaders and political activists have been arrested and the people are being tortured by the military,” Bo Bo Oo, one of the elected lawmakers from Suu Kyi’s party, said March 28. Suu Kyi, 77, is serving prison sentences totaling 33 years after being convicted in a series of politically tainted prosecutions brought by the military. Her supporters say the charges were contrived to prevent her from participating in politics. Click here to read... [28]

Saudi Arabia and Syria to restore ties – media

Saudi Arabia and Syria will reopen their embassies after more than a decade of hostility, according to reports from multiple news outlets. The potential thaw comes after a landmark Chinese-brokered deal set the path for normalization of relations between the Saudi kingdom and Iran, bitter rivals who backed opposing sides in Syria’s civil war. The two nations are preparing to reopen their respective embassies after the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr in April, Reuters reported on March 23, citing a “source aligned with Damascus.” A second Syria-linked source told the agency that the breakthrough came after talks in Saudi Arabia involving a senior Syrian intelligence official. Saudi sources appeared to confirm the news later on March 23 night, with a foreign-ministry official telling state TV that “discussions are underway with officials in Syria to resume consular services.” Saudi Arabia closed its embassy in Damascus and expelled the Syrian ambassador in 2012, as the kingdom sided with militias seeking to overthrow Bashar Assad’s government. The Syrian conflict drew a dividing line through the Middle East. Iran and Russia backed Assad while the US, Saudi Arabia, and most Arab states supported the opposition forces – a broad collective of militias, including hardline jihadists. Click here to read... [29]

Russia will place nuclear weapons in Belarus – Putin

Russian tactical nuclear weapons might arrive in Belarus as early as this summer, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed on March 25. Moscow is completing the construction of a specialized storage facility for such arms, amid repeated calls by Minsk to deploy them on its soil, he added. The site in Belarus will be ready by July 1, Putin told Russia 24 TV. The president also said that Moscow does not plan to hand over control of any tactical nuclear weapons to Minsk and that it would only deploy its own arms to Belarus. He did not specify when exactly the weapons would be transported to the new site. The move was prompted by the UK’s decision to provide Kiev with depleted uranium munitions, Putin explained. The UK announced earlier in March that it plans to send the shells to Ukraine for use with Challenger 2 battle tanks. Moscow blasted the move as a sign of “absolute recklessness, irresponsibility and impunity” on the part of London and Washington. The US dismissed Russia’s concerns by calling depleted uranium shells a “commonplace type of munition” that has “been in use for decades.” The Russian Defense Ministry then warned that their use could trigger nothing short of a radioactive disaster in Ukraine, citing the aftermath of the use of such munitions by NATO in Iraq. Click here to read... [30]

US Senate votes to advance repeal of Iraq War authorisation

The United States Senate has backed a measure expected to clear the way for a vote to repeal two authorisations for war in Iraq. On March 27, the chamber voted 65 to 28 to limit debate over whether to end two “Authorizations for Use of Military Force” (AUMFs) — one from 1991 that coincided with the Gulf War and a second from 2002, approved in the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq invasion. That support exceeded the 60-vote minimum needed to advance the legislation. The final vote to repeal is expected later this week. March 27’s vote takes place as the US marks the 20th anniversary of the 2003 Iraq War. All 28 votes against March 27’s measure came from Republican Senators. Typically, under the US Constitution, Congress wields the exclusive power to declare war. But with the two Iraq war authorisations, Congress granted open-ended authority to the presidency to exercise force in the region. That, some argue, has allowed the presidency to gain too much power over military action. It has also spurred criticism that these “zombie” authorisations have fuelled “forever wars” that are no longer justified. In the minutes before March 27’s vote, Democratic Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey called the measure a means of exercising the chamber’s “most solemn duty”: to decide “when and under what circumstances” to send Americans “into harm’s way”. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Five dead as Tanzania detects first-ever Marburg virus outbreak

Tanzania has confirmed eight cases of Marburg, a high-death viral hemorrhagic fever with symptoms broadly similar to those of Ebola, in its first-ever outbreak, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO said in a late March 21 statement that the confirmation by Tanzania’s national public laboratory followed the death of five people in the northwest Kagera region who developed symptoms, which include fever, vomiting, bleeding and renal failure. Among the dead was a health worker, WHO said. The three who survived were getting treatment, with 161 contacts being monitored. “The efforts by Tanzania’s health authorities to establish the cause of the disease is a clear indication of the determination to effectively respond to the outbreak,” said Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa. With a death rate of as high as 88 percent, Marburg is from the same virus family responsible for Ebola and is transmitted to people from fruit bats. It then spreads through contact with bodily fluids of infected people. The symptoms include high fever, severe headache and malaise which typically develop within seven days of infection, according to the WHO. Tanzania’s outbreak comes a month after Equatorial Guinea confirmed its first-ever outbreak of Marburg virus disease too. Click here to read... [32]

China Approves First Homegrown mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine

China approved its first homegrown mRNA vaccine for Covid-19, adding a key tool to combat future outbreaks of the virus that was missing due to Beijing’s reluctance to allow Western-made shots using the gene-based technology. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd.’s messenger-RNA vaccine, known as SYS6006, was given emergency-use clearance by regulators, the company said in a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange March 22. The vaccine was designed to work against the latest variants of Covid-19, and also proved effective against older strains, it said. China has relied on older technology, primarily so-called inactivated vaccines, to protect its population during the pandemic, as well as exporting billions of shots—many to poorer countries. But as the virus mutated, China’s vaccines proved less effective against the highly transmissible Omicron variants than did the mRNA ones produced by the West. “China has been resistant to Western drugs and vaccines as it’s a matter of national pride, and to encourage indigenous innovation,” said Henry Gao, a professor at Singapore Management University. Beijing’s abrupt lifting of most of its “zero-Covid” controls in early December led to a massive surge in infections and crematoriums flooded with dead bodies, while hospitals were overwhelmed and shelves in drugstores were cleared as people scrambled to buy fever medications. By late January, the worst of China’s “exit wave” appeared to be over. Click here to read... [33]