Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 24 October- 30 October, 2022

Economic

Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path

Wall Street analysts will be focused Nov 2 on what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says about whether the central bank might slow down interest-rate rises at its next policy meeting in December. Fed officials have already indicated that they are likely to raise their benchmark federal-funds rate by 0.75 percentage point this week to a range between 3.75% and 4%. That would mark their fourth consecutive increase of that size as they seek to reduce inflation by slowing the economy. Some of the officials recently began signalling their desire to start reducing the size of increases after this week and to potentially stop lifting rates early next year so they can see the effects of their moves. Those officials and several private-sector economists have warned of growing risks that the Fed will raise rates too much and cause an unnecessarily sharp slowdown. Until June, the Fed hadn’t raised interest rates by 0.75 point, or 75 basis points, since 1994. Fed officials widely supported the supersize rate increases this summer because they were playing catch-up. Inflation has been running close to 40-year highs, but interest rates were pinned near zero until March. Debate over how much more to raise rates could intensify as they reach levels more likely to restrain spending, hiring and investment. Click here to read... [2]

Yuan becomes 5th most traded currency, helped by sanctioned Russia

China's yuan has jumped to fifth place in currency transactions, new data shows, as the country's economic expansion increases trade and sanctions-hit Russia turns to the Chinese market. The yuan's average daily turnover in April came to $526 billion -- up 85% from the same month of 2019, according to data published by the Bank for International Settlements. The Chinese currency accounted for 7% of overall transactions, up 2.7 percentage points. The sum of percentage shares totals 200% because two currencies are involved in each transaction. The yuan trailed only the dollar, the euro, the yen and the pound. The yuan, which ranked No. 8 in terms of share in April 2019, surpassed the currencies of Australia, Canada and Switzerland in the new ranking. The BIS releases data on over-the-counter foreign exchange turnover every three years based on reports from central banks around the world. China's growing transactions with Russia are believed to be behind the shift. Russia accounted for 3.58% of offshore yuan payments in September -- the fourth-highest figure -- according to SWIFT, the global payments messaging system. Russia was not even in the top 15 through March. But after climbing to 12th place with 0.62% in April, it rose rapidly and sat in No. 3 in July and August. Click here to read... [3]

Russia to Suffer Worst Slowdown of Any Major Economy

Russia is set for the deepest recession of any large economy this year, according to new forecasts from its central bank—and economists forecast a gloomy future as the windfall from high energy prices fades, sanctions tighten and the country struggles to replace Europe as the main buyer of its oil and gas. The Russian economy is suffering from the impact of sanctions and the withdrawal of Western businesses in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine in February. While Russia has benefited from soaring energy prices this year, economists expect revenue to fall sharply as the global economy slows and the West finds substitutes for Russian energy. The central bank’s forecast of a drop in gross domestic product of between 3% and 3.5% this year is less than it had expected soon after the start of the conflict. “The decline in GDP will be less significant than anticipated,” said Bank of Russia head Elvira Nabiullina. However, the expected contraction would likely be the largest recorded by a member of the Group of 20 largest economies. Immediately after the invasion, the bank expected the economy to contract between 8% and 10% this year, and by as much as 3% next year. It now expects GDP to contract between 1% and 4% next year. Click here to read... [4]

BOJ defies global tightening trend, sticks to ultra-low rates

The Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates on Oct 28 and maintained its dovish guidance, cementing its status as an outlier among global central banks tightening monetary policy, as recession fears dampen prospects for a solid recovery. The central bank also announced plans to increase the frequency of its bond buying next month, doubling down on efforts to defend its ultra-loose monetary policy. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Japan was making some progress toward achieving his 2% inflation target, as rising prices heighten the chance more firms will increase wages next year. But he said the central bank was nowhere near raising interest rates, with inflation likely to fall short of its 2% target for years to come. "We expect wages to gradually rise reflecting recent inflation," Kuroda told a news conference. "For now, we don't expect inflation to stably and sustainably achieve 2% inflation next fiscal year." As widely expected, the BOJ left unchanged its -0.1% target for short-term interest rates and a pledge to guide the 10-year bond yield around 0% under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The central bank also maintained its dovish guidance projecting that short- and long-term rates will remain at "present or lower levels." Click here to read... [5]

Egypt’s pound at record low after $3bn IMF deal announcement

Egypt’s pound slid about 14.5 percent to a record low against the United States dollar after authorities announced a $3bn International Monetary Fund (IMF) deal with a commitment to a “durably flexible exchange rate regime”. The central bank also raised interest rates by 200 basis points in an out-of-cycle meeting, saying it aimed to anchor inflation expectations and contain demand-side pressures. Egypt had been in talks with the IMF for a new loan since March after its economic woes deepened due to the war in Ukraine. The fund has long been urging Egypt to allow greater exchange rate flexibility. In a statement on Oct 27 confirming a staff-level agreement on a $3bn, 46-month Extended Fund Facility, the IMF said a flexible exchange rate regime should be “a cornerstone policy for rebuilding and safeguarding Egypt’s external resilience over the long term”. It said the deal was expected to catalyse a large, multi-year financing package, including about $5bn in the fiscal year ending June 2023, reflecting “broad international and regional support for Egypt”. Egypt’s central bank said it was intent on intensifying economic reforms and had “moved to a durably flexible exchange rate regime, leaving the forces of supply and demand to determine the value of the EGP against other foreign currencies”. Click here to read... [6]

Record volumes of Russian energy headed to China – Bloomberg

Russia exported a record amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and steelmaking coal to China in September, Bloomberg reported on Oct 25 citing Chinese customs data. According to the report, Russia’s coking coal exports to its trading partner last month surged to 2.5 million tons from around 900,000 tons in September last year and 1.9 million tons in August. Overall coal imports, including thermal and coking coal, jumped 20% to nearly 7 million tons year-on-year. LNG deliveries surged by a third from a year ago to 819,000 tons. It is unclear how much Russian gas China has imported via pipelines, which is the main route for its delivery, as Beijing hasn’t reported on those flows since the start of the year. China’s imports of Russian oil dropped to 7.5 million tons last month from 8.3 million tons in August but were still higher than last year’s 6.1 million tons. Total purchases of Russian energy, including oil products, also dropped slightly to $7.5 billion last month from $8.4 billion in August. They were still significantly higher than last year’s $4.7 billion. China’s overall purchases of energy products from Russia topped $51 billion in the seven months since the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. During the same period in 2021, China’s energy purchases from Russia amounted to $30 billion. Click here to read... [7]

Israel begins Karish gas production ahead of Lebanon deal

Israel has begun gas production at Karish, an offshore field at the heart of a maritime border agreement expected to be signed soon with Lebanon. The London-based hydrocarbon company Energean said that the first gas had been delivered, after Israel gave permission on Oct 25 for the production to begin. “We have delivered a landmark project that brings competition to the Israeli gas market, enhances security of energy supply in the East Med region and brings affordable and clean energy that will displace coal-fired power generation, making a material impact to the environment,” said Mathios Rigas, Chief Executive Officer of Energean in regulatory filing. Israel and Lebanon agreed earlier this month to set a maritime border for the first time and establish a mechanism for both countries to explore offshore gas fields. That is despite the two neighbours having technically been at war for decades, although the last active conflict was in 2006. The US-brokered deal is expected to be finalised on Oct 27 during a ceremony in the Lebanese town of Naqoura, with delegations from Israel and Lebanon signing the deal in separate rooms. Under its terms, Israel retains full rights to develop the Karish field while Lebanon retains full rights in nearby Qana. Click here to read... [8]

Russia suggests alternative to Suez Canal

The North-South corridor could become a safe substitute for the Suez Canal, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov said on Oct 28, adding that he expects the volume of Russian cargo via this route to double by 2030. Speaking at the Eurasian Economic Forum, he noted that the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and other alternative routes are gaining importance due to “global shifts of world markets” to China, South-East Asia and the Persian Gulf. Existing transport infrastructure which has been historically focused on the “East-West horizon ceases to meet global trends,” according to the Deputy Premier, while the “North-South route may become a real competitor to the Suez Canal.” The route is currently the only deep-sea trade artery which connects Europe and Asia, and such “monopolarity” poses risks to the global economy, the official said. He recalled an incident in 2021 when a container ship became stuck in the Suez Canal, triggering knock-on effects on global trade. The INSTC is a 7,200-kilometer multi-mode transit system that connects ship, rail, and road routes for moving cargo between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe. Experts say the route could cut costs by about 50% and save up to 20 days of travel time. In an effort to build up new logistics chains and make the route viable, Russia has proposed establishing an international operator for the North-South corridor along with Iran and Azerbaijan, the minister said. Click here to read... [9]

EU issues plans, aiming for ‘zero pollution’ in air and water by 2050

The European Union (EU) detailed plans on Oct 26 to bring air and water pollution down to zero by 2050, proposing tougher rules and compensation for those affected by poor air quality. The points set out by the European Commission bolster its push transitioning toward a greener future for the 27-nation bloc - a core pledge by commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. "The longer we wait to reduce this pollution, the higher the costs to society. By 2050, we want our environment to be free of harmful pollutants," her vice president, Frans Timmermans, said. "Our proposals to further reduce ­water and air pollution are a crucial piece of that puzzle." The plan calls for a revision of EU legislation, the Ambient Air Quality Directives and the Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive. They would introduce regular reviews, more than halve the annual limit for fine-particle pollution in the air, and make wastewater treatment more effective by, for instance, recovering more nutrients from it for recycling use. A "polluter pays" principle would be applied to toxic micro-pollutants in ­water - 92 percent of which the commission said comes from pharmaceuticals and cosmetics. A key proposal is the compensation for those who have suffered where EU air quality norms have been violated. Click here to read... [10]

China-backed AIIB warns against panic building fossil fuel power plants

The China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has warned governments against building new fossil fuel power stations out of panic during the current global energy crisis, saying such moves could result in decades of environmental harm. There is now a real risk that worried governments rush to open or reopen coal and other heavily polluting power stations to bolster their energy supplies, Jang Ping Thia, one of the AIIB's lead economists, warned. "We should avoid making serious mistakes in this panic," he said. "Don't let a one-year crisis lock you in for the next 25-30 years." Beijing-headquartered AIIB's annual infrastructure finance report, published on Oct 26, lays out its stance for what is shaping up to be a difficult United Nations Climate Change COP 27 summit in Egypt next month. It called for heavily-polluting state-owned firms to be rapidly turned into green energy "leaders", putting special focus on China, India and Indonesia, noting that a global net-zero transition would not succeed without their cooperation. AIIB President Jin Liqun also gave a clear nod to what is likely to be the key point of tension in Egypt - that while richer countries have produced most of the CO2 and other greenhouse gases, it will be the world's poorest countries that bear the brunt of climate change. Click here to read... [11]

Saudi announces establishment of 5 investment firms on 2nd day of Future Investment Initiative conference

Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) has established five regional investment companies to invest in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Oman and Sudan, according to a PIF press release published on Oct 26. The five companies, together with the Saudi Egyptian Investment Company established in August, aim to invest up to 90 billion Saudi Riyals (24 billion U.S. dollars) in various key sectors including infrastructure, real estate development, mining, healthcare, financial services, food and agriculture, manufacturing, telecoms, and technology. The announcement, made by Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, comes on the second day of the 6th edition of the Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference held in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, with the participation of leading investors, innovators and world leaders. The second day of the event also witnessed Saudi Aramco's announcement of the launch of a 1.5-billion-U.S. dollar sustainability fund that invests in technology to support a stable and inclusive energy transition. Managed by Aramco Ventures, the venture capital arm of Aramco, the fund aims to meet the world's growing energy demand with lower greenhouse gas emissions. Initial focus areas will include carbon capture and storage, greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency, nature-based climate solutions, digital sustainability, hydrogen, ammonia and synthetic fuels. Click here to read... [12]

China launches 3rd and final space station component

China on Oct 31 launched the third and final module to complete its permanent space station, realizing a more than decade-long endeavor to maintain a constant crewed presence in orbit. Mengtian was blasted into space at 3:39 p.m. (0739 GMT) Oct 31from the Wenchang Satellite Launch Center on the southern island province of Hainan. A large crowd of amateur photographers, space enthusiasts and assorted lookers-on watched the lift-off from an adjoining beach. Many waved Chinese flags and wore T-shirts emblazoned with the characters for China, reflecting the deep national pride invested in the space program and the technological progress it represents. Mengtian, or “Celestial Dream,” joins Wentian as the second laboratory module for the station, collectively known as Tiangong, or “Celestial Palace.” Both are connected to the Tianhe core module where the crew lives and works. Like its predecessors, Mengtian was launched aboard a Long March-5B Y4 carrier rocket--a member of China’s most powerful family of launch vehicles--from the coastal Wenchang space base on the tropical island province of Hainan. Mengtian was due to spend 13 hours in flight before reaching Tiangong which is populated by a crew of two male and one female astronauts, according to the China Manned Space Agency. Click here to read... [13]

U.S. midterms: Tech sector braces for further China decoupling

With the U.S. midterm elections less than 10 days away, tech industry is holding its collective breath for a new group of elected officials to provide much-needed relief to the sector, as it is facing growing pressure from supply chain constraints, the economic downturn and U.S.-China tensions that refuse to abate this year. While the elections for the House of Representatives and Senate, along with state and local officials, are typically focused on domestic issues such as abortion rights and gun control, tech leaders across the globe are closely watching the Nov. 8 vote for its implications on the industry at home and abroad. Democrats and Republicans appear to be split more than ever, but the parties have recently found common ground on China. House and Senate candidates across both aisles are campaigning on tough China policies. Many campaign messages from incumbents tout the CHIPS and Science Act, which was designed to help the U.S. compete with China in technology and was signed into law in August with bipartisan support, as well as the most strict chip export ban on China announced in October. The rarely seen unity comes down to a simple fact, American public opinion of China is at a historic low. A September survey by Pew Research Center found 82% of U.S. respondents expressed an "unfavorable" view of China, a record high up from 79% in 2020. Click here to read... [14]

Pakistan, China aim to jump-start Belt and Road plans in key talks

Pakistan and China sought to revive Belt and Road projects in the South Asian country at an annual huddle, held virtually on Oct 27. In the run-up to the talks, cash-strapped Islamabad appeared to have accepted a Chinese demand to increase the cost of a railway, as it seeks to secure more financing. This was the 11th meeting of the Joint Cooperation Committee, the key forum for making decisions on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $50 billion Pakistan component of the Belt and Road. Zhao Shiren, the Chinese consul general in Lahore, told local media earlier this month that work on the CPEC is expected to speed up after the JCC meeting. The center of attention now is Main Line 1, or ML-1, a project that will upgrade 1,733 kilometers of railway track between Karachi and Peshawar. This is the largest CPEC project in terms of cost, and it had been awaiting a final decision for the past five years. "Pakistan has agreed to increase the cost of ML-1 from $6.8 billion to $9.85 billion, on the demand of Chinese negotiators, who termed the former cost figure as unrealistic," an official privy to CPEC planning told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity since he was not authorized to talk to the media. Click here to read... [15]

Germany backs China’s Cosco shipping on Hamburg port bid despite national security warnings

The German government has backed a controversial deal allowing Chinese state-owned shipping giant Cosco to buy a stake in a terminal at its busiest port, despite multiple federal ministries warning that it would be a national security risk. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s cabinet on Oct 26 gave the green light to a compromise whereby Cosco would buy a stake “below 25 per cent” of Tollerort container terminal, owned by Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG (HHLA). The Chinese company wanted a 35 per cent stake, a purchase that would have automatically gone through at the end of October had the cabinet not struck a deal. At this reduced stake, Cosco will have no voting rights at the port, the economic ministry said. The port saga has become a huge story in Germany, and has exposed deep divisions on federal China policy among the three-way coalition which came to power last year. Chancellor Scholz, a Social Democrat and the former mayor of Hamburg, has largely followed predecessor Angela Merkel’s policy of maintaining strong trading ties with China, even as European Union officials warned that Berlin was set to repeat the mistakes of the past, in reference to its reliance on Russian energy. The Greens and Free Democrats (FDP), the two junior coalition partners, advocate a tougher policy towards China and opposed the deal, which officials have said leaves Germany more vulnerable to “blackmail” and economic coercion by China. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Ukrainian military logistics degraded – Moscow

Ukraine’s military has suffered a serious degradation of capabilities due to the recent strikes by Moscow’s forces, the Russian Defense Ministry stated on Nov 01. “Transportation of manpower and material towards the frontlines via railroads has been hampered to a large degree. Production at Ukrainian military industrial facilities has also been disrupted,” the statement said, describing the results of the long-range missile barrage launched on Oct 31. Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reported that precision strikes were continuing on key targets, which was affecting Ukraine’s military potential. Speaking during a working meeting on Nov 01, the minister also said that over the last two weeks Russian forces had destroyed 74 tanks, 235 other armored vehicles, two HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and 268 armed cars. The Ukrainian Air Force reported detecting 50 missiles launched on Oct 31 from Russian aircraft and claimed have to have intercepted 44 of them. Prime Minister Denis Shmigal said Russia had hit 18 targets, mostly related to the energy sector, in ten regions of the country. Ukraine’s railroad monopoly confirmed that some of its lines had suffered from a blackout and that it had to roll out backup diesel locomotives in response. Russia shifted its military tactics in Ukraine last month and began launching attacks against energy infrastructure. Click here to read... [17]

China Nods to Even Tighter Ties With Russia in Xi Jinping’s Third Term

China’s top diplomat signalled that Chinese leader Xi Jinping, fresh from extending his power for a norm-breaking third term, intends to double-down on his tight relationship with Russia’s Vladimir Putin—driving an even deeper wedge between the two authoritarian rulers and the West. In a Oct 27 phone call with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing wants to deepen its relationship with Moscow “at all levels,” according to a readout published by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs late that night. China firmly supports the efforts of Mr. Putin “to unite and lead the Russian people in overcoming difficulties” and “further establish Russia’s status as a major power on the international stage,” Mr. Wang said. Mr. Lavrov congratulated Mr. Xi on his “utter success” at a recently concluded Communist Party congress in Beijing, according to the Chinese readout. In addition to securing his third term, Mr. Xi used the congress to stack the party’s top leadership with his allies and protégés, paving the way for him to rule China essentially unchallenged. Though Beijing and Moscow aren’t formal diplomatic allies, the Chinese leader has been Mr. Putin’s most powerful supporter. The two spoke at a regional summit in Uzbekistan in September, in the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders since the start of the Ukraine war and Mr. Xi’s first trip abroad since Covid-19 began spreading significantly in the Chinese city of Wuhan in early 2020.Click here to read... [18]

Israelis vote in fifth parliamentary election in less than four years

Israel is holding a parliamentary election on Nov 01, its fifth in less than four years, as parties hope to finally break government gridlock and end a prolonged political crisis. According to final polls, released four days before the vote, the bloc of opposition parties led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to win 60 seats in the Knesset, the country’s parliament, one short of a majority. His main rival, Prime Minister Yair Lapid, and the coalition he leads, is projected to win 56 seats. Turnout hit 15.9% by 10am local time, Central Elections Committee head Orly Ades said, the highest since 1981, according to the Times of Israel. Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, who governed in the 1990s and later from 2009 to 2021, was ousted from power last year. A new government was formed under a multiparty deal spearheaded by Lapid’s Yesh-Atid party and Naftali Bennett’s Yamina. The cabinet included members from a wide spectrum of political ideologies, with Bennett and Lapid leading as alternating PMs. The work of the broad coalition, however, became quickly marred by frequent infighting and revolts by individual MPs. In a major blow to unity, the parliament failed in June to approve the extension of regulations applied to Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Lapid and Bennett announced the dissolution of the Knesset the same month and called for a new election.Click here to read... [19]

Lula defeats Bolsonaro in Brazilian election

Former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva clinched victory over his right-wing rival Jair Bolsonaro in a tightly contested second round of the Brazilian election on Oct 30. The country’s election authority announced Lula’s narrow win with 50.9% of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 49.1%. “This isn’t a victory of mine or the Workers’ Party... It’s the victory of a democratic movement that formed above political parties, personal interests and ideologies so that democracy came out victorious,” Lula told a cheering crowd of supporters in Sao Paulo on Oct 30 night. The president-elect acknowledged that following such a tight race a challenge to his future mandate will be “immense,” and stressed that “it is necessary to rebuild the very soul of this country, recover generosity, solidarity, and respect for differences and love for others.” Lula, who is set to take office on 1 January 2023, promised to be a president for all 215 million Brazilians, not just those who voted for him. “There are not two Brazils. We are one country, one people – a great nation.” Bolsonaro has yet to publicly concede defeat. The incumbent repeatedly warned during his campaign that he would contest the results if he were to lose by a narrow margin, calling into question the reliability of Brazil’s electronic voting system. Click here to read... [20]

U.S. says China resisting nuclear talks after Xi vows to boost deterrent

Despite the lesson of the Cuban missile crisis 60 years ago, China has shown no interest in discussing steps to reduce the risk posed by nuclear weapons, senior U.S. officials said on Nov 01, after Chinese leader Xi Jinping signalled last month that Beijing would strengthen its strategic deterrent. The Pentagon says China is undergoing a major expansion of its nuclear forces and is moving toward having 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. But Beijing has long resisted arms control talks with Washington, arguing that the United States already has a much larger arsenal. Alexandra Bell, deputy assistant secretary of state for arms control, verification and compliance, told an Atlantic Council that despite U.S. efforts, Washington and Beijing still had not begun engagement on the issue. “As a first step, we’d really like to have a conversation with them about each other’s doctrines, about crisis communication, crisis management,” Bell said, noting that Washington has had such talks with Russia for decades. “We’re not in that space with Beijing yet. So, there’s work to be done to begin the conversation, we think bilaterally,” Bell said. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said last year after a call between Xi and President Joe Biden that the two had agreed to “look to begin to carry forward discussion on strategic stability.” Click here to read... [21]

U.S. vows full military defense of allies against North Korea

The United States will make full use of its military capabilities, “including nuclear, conventional and missile defense,” to defend its allies Japan and South Korea, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said Oct 25 as she warned North Korea against escalating its provocations. Sherman said North Korea’s repeated firings of ballistic missiles and artillery in recent weeks were provocative military actions. North Korea has described them as practice runs for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. “This is deeply irresponsible, dangerous, and destabilizing,” Sherman said in talks in Tokyo with South Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyungdong. The two officials met ahead of a three-way meeting with their Japanese counterpart on Oct 26. It will be second in-person meeting of the three officials since conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol took office in May, signaling an improvement in difficult ties between Japan and South Korea. A year ago, Japanese and South Korean vice ministers declined to participate in a joint news conference after three-way talks in Washington, leaving Sherman to make a solo media appearance. Sherman said North Korea needs to understand that the U.S. commitment to the security of South Korea and Japan is “ironclad.” “And we will use the full range of U.S. defense capabilities to defend our allies, including nuclear, conventional and missile defense capabilities,” she said. Click here to read... [22]

Myanmar warns any ASEAN pressures would create ‘negative implications’

Myanmar’s military government warned on Oct 27 that any pressure from its Southeast Asian neighbors to put a time frame on a peace plan would create “negative implications.” The ruling junta, which seized power from an elected government last year, was reacting to a meeting earlier on Oct 27 of foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries in Jakarta to discuss easing the intensifying crisis. ASEAN remains committed to a peace plan agreed with Myanmar’s military rulers, its chair Cambodia said on Oct 27, even as some countries raised concerns over the failure to implement the plan agreed with the junta 18 months ago. No Myanmar representatives were present at the special meeting of the group’s foreign ministers to discuss the stalled peace plan. Myanmar’s generals have been barred from high-level ASEAN meetings since last year, after the army ousted Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in a February 2021 coup, detaining her and thousands of activists and launching a deadly crackdown that has given rise to armed resistance movements. The junta has done little to honor its commitments to the so-called five-point peace “consensus” which includes an immediately halting violence, starting dialogue, allowing an ASEAN chair envoy to facilitate mediation and allowing ASEAN to provide humanitarian assistance. The head of the junta has blamed the lack of progress on instability in the country and the COVID-19 pandemic. Click here to read... [23]

China's Global Security Initiative: Xi's wedge in the U.S.-led order

Chinese President Xi Jinping's nearly two-hour speech to more than 2,000 delegates at this year's Communist Party congress was filled with familiar refrains. Written into his work report for the first time, however, was the Global Security Initiative (GSI), signaling an important theme in his precedent-breaking third term. "An ancient Chinese philosopher observed that 'all living things may grow side by side without harming one another, and different roads may run in parallel without interfering with one another,'" Xi said in his work report. "Only when all countries pursue the cause of common good, live in harmony and engage in cooperation for mutual benefit will there be sustained prosperity and guaranteed security." It is "in this spirit," according to Xi, that China has launched the GSI. But what is it? As with China's other lofty global programs -- the Belt and Road Initiative for building infrastructure and the Global Development Initiative for helping emerging nations confront poverty and other challenges -- the nascent GSI is heavy on verbiage and light on concrete details. When he announced it at the Boao Forum for Asia in April, Xi said the GSI would provide a framework of principles for global affairs and diplomacy that could make the world a safer place. Click here to read... [24]

Japan to establish Self-Defense Forces 'joint command' in 2024

Japan is moving to set up a new joint command and a new commanding officer position to oversee its three Self-Defense Force units and better coordinate with the U.S. military in emergencies, Nikkei has learned. The restructuring could take place as soon as 2024 as the nation remains vigilant for any potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait. The officer will oversee the operations of the Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces, and closely communicate with his U.S. counterpart. To that end, the government must first amend the Self-Defense Forces Act. The plan will be included in three security-related documents to be revised at the end of the year. Once the amendments are made, a rapid-response system will be established by 2027, when some experts fear China could potentially consider invading Taiwan. Currently, the Joint Staff Office of the SDF commands all three forces and is overseen by the chief of staff, the sole person in charge of communication with the prime minister and U.S. military. But the chief of staff has additional duties, especially in regard to ensuring orders are carried out. This reorganization is meant to ease the chief of staff's workload by creating a new command position under him, with this officer overseeing the operations of all three forces. The officer will also coordinate moves between the SDF and U.S. forces in emergencies. Click here to read... [25]

German Chancellor Scholz will visit Beijing on Nov. 4

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will press China to open up its markets and will raise human rights concerns next week in what will be the first visit by a European Union leader to China since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Berlin said on Oct 28. Scholz will visit on Nov. 4 at a time of growing concern in the West about China's trade practices and human rights record, as well as anxiety over Germany's reliance on the world's second-largest economy. The visit also comes amid a festering row within Scholz's three-way coalition over whether to approve Chinese investment in a terminal at Hamburg, Germany's largest port, which Scholz is pushing through despite the security concerns of his ministers. The German government's spokesperson told a briefing on Oct 28 that Berlin's view of Beijing had changed but it was against "decoupling" from the Chinese economy and wanted Beijing to show reciprocity in trade relations. Germany would discuss "autocratic" tendencies in China and human rights, "but also a whole range of other questions, about reciprocity, as in the opening of Chinese markets for European and other companies," the spokesperson said. The German government wanted to meet nongovernmental organizations during the visit but it was not clear if that will be possible, the spokesperson added. Click here to read... [26]

Leaders head to Algeria for first Arab League summit in two years

The first Arab League summit since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic is set to begin in Algeria, but political divisions continue to rankle among the regional organisation’s members. Arab states are split over issues ranging from support for the Palestinian cause, the regional roles of Iran and Turkey and the rehabilitation of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, while Algeria’s own bitter feud with Morocco continues to fester. In Algeria, largely absent from Arab affairs for several years following the 2019 mass protests that led to the ousting of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the meeting has been portrayed as a mark of its return to front-line diplomacy. “The summit shows that Algeria is back in international affairs after years of isolation due to Bouteflika’s illness, the protest movement, COVID-19 and the financial crisis,” a former Algerian government minister and the ambassador said. Last month Algiers convened Palestinian factions in an effort to end years of internal discord, and President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has in recent months hosted the leaders of France and Italy. However, Algeria failed earlier this year to persuade other Arab states to end Syria’s suspension from membership of the League imposed in late 2011 over al-Assad’s crackdown on protesters as an uprising spilled into civil war. Damascus said in September it would not attend to avoid “causing dispute”. Click here to read... [27]

Israel’s Benny Gantz relaunches defence ties with Turkey

Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz has heralded a new era in security ties with Turkey as the two countries seek to mend a relationship that had been broken for a decade. Gantz spoke on Oct 27 during a one-day trip to the powerful NATO member and two months after Israel and Turkey renewed their diplomatic ties. “For over a decade, there were no formal security ties,” Gantz said after meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Defence Minister Hulusi Akar in Ankara. “Today we’re changing that in a responsible and gradual process that serves Israel’s interests.” In 1949, Turkey became the first Muslim-majority nation to recognise Israel. But bilateral relations began to fray in 2008 after an Israeli military operation in Gaza. Ties then froze in 2010 after the deaths of 10 civilians following an Israeli raid on the Turkish Mavi Marmara ship, part of a flotilla trying to breach an Israeli blockade and carry aid to Gaza. A brief reconciliation lasted from 2016 until 2018 when Turkey withdrew its ambassador and expelled Israel’s over the killing of Palestinians during a conflict with Gaza. Relations began to thaw after the departure of former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli President Isaac Herzog paid a state visit to Turkey in March, followed by Prime Minister Yair Lapid in June. Lapid was foreign minister at the time. Click here to read... [28]

China-Vietnam ties: Beijing reassured by Hanoi’s vow to reject all military alliances, analysts say

Morale in Beijing, which is weary of American influence in Taiwan and the South China Sea, will be boosted by Vietnam’s refusal to host foreign bases on its soil, analysts said as Vietnamese Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong concluded his four-day visit to China. During his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trong said ties with China were the “top priority” of Vietnam’s foreign policy. He said his government sought to work with Beijing to maintain peace and stability and avoid maritime conflicts “affecting the overall development of relations between the two countries”. According to the account of the meeting released by the Chinese side, Trong told Xi that Vietnam would not allow any overseas military base to be established in the country, and nor would it join forces with any country against another. Statements released by Vietnam did not include those remarks but said Trong had told Xi that upgrading ties with China was Vietnam’s top priority. In a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Nov 01, Trong said Vietnam would stick to the one-China policy. According to Song Zhongping, a former People’s Liberation Army instructor and analyst, the South China Sea – which is also claimed by regional states, including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines – is an “unavoidable issue” that the socialist neighbours will have to confront eventually. Click here to read... [29]

Medical

WHO issues warning on tuberculosis

The number of people infected with tuberculosis (TB) has increased globally for the first time in nearly two decades, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The watchdog recorded a 4.5% year-on-year increase in 2021, with some experts claiming little attention is being paid to the dire situation since the disease mostly affects poorer regions. In its report published on Oct 27, the WHO revealed that a total of 10.6 million people were diagnosed with tuberculosis last year, with 1.6 million more succumbing to the disease. The latter figure rose for the second consecutive year. The UN health agency clarified that the Covid-19 pandemic had contributed to the spike in TB-related deaths as lockdowns prevented many patients from getting a diagnosis or receiving treatment. Commenting on the report’s findings, Dr. Lucica Ditiu, the executive director of the Stop TB Partnership, lamented that “despite this shockingly upward trend of TB mortality and infection rates, funding for fighting TB decreased in 2020 and 2021 from an already pathetically low level.” Speaking to Britain’s The Guardian newspaper, she questioned whether the lack of resources was down to the fact that the infection “affects mainly poor people from poorer countries, and it is more comfortable to simply neglect them.” The WHO also reported a decline in global funding for essential tuberculosis services from $6 billion in 2019 to $5.4 billion in 2021. Click here to read... [30]

Cholera spreading ‘rapidly’ across Lebanon: WHO

A deadly cholera outbreak is spreading "rapidly" across Lebanon, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Oct 31. Lebanon's first cholera outbreak in decades began in early October after the virulent disease spread from neighboring Syria. "The situation in Lebanon is fragile as the country already struggles to fight other crises, compounded by prolonged political and economic deterioration," said Abdinasir Abubakar, the WHO representative in Lebanon. Since October 5, more than 1,400 suspected cases have been reported in Lebanon, including 381 confirmed cases and 17 deaths, the WHO said in a statement. While the outbreak was initially confined to the impoverished north, it has "rapidly spread" across Lebanon, it ­added. The WHO said it has helped the country secure 600,000 vaccine doses, and efforts to secure more are "ongoing given the rapid spread of the outbreak." Cholera is generally contracted from contaminated food or water, and causes diarrhoea and vomiting. It can also spread in residential areas that lack proper sewerage networks or mains drinking water. The outbreak in Lebanon came on the heels of a recent wave in Syria, where more than a decade of war has damaged nearly two-thirds of water treatment plants, half of pumping stations and one-third of water towers, according to the United Nations. The Euphrates River, which has been contaminated by sewage, is believed to be the source of Syria's first major cholera outbreak since 2009. Click here to read... [31]