Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 10 October- 16 October

Economic

China’s Economic Data Gets Harder to Find as Growth Slows

The world is eager for clues about the health of China’s economy as the country endures its worst prolonged slowdown in years. But getting a clear picture has only grown more difficult, as data becomes harder to obtain and unflattering analysis vanishes. On Oct 18, China’s National Bureau of Statistics abruptly cancelled the release of quarterly gross domestic product data just hours before it was set to be published, without providing a reason or setting a new date. Days earlier, the country’s customs agency simply didn’t release monthly official trade data, offering no explanation. The moves, which economists said had no obvious precedent in China, came as China holds a Communist Party congress where leader Xi Jinping is expected to secure a third term. They were only the most glaring examples of what many investors and scholars say reflects increasing sensitivities around economic data and commentary that have made analysis of the world’s second-largest economy more difficult. In the past year, China’s official statistics bureau and private research firms have retracted or removed more data from public access, while reports by economists and market analysts—particularly those with a more bearish outlook—have been retracted or expunged. Some prominent analysts who have questioned economic policy have had their social-media accounts suspended. Click here to read... [2]

Global finance leaders single out China as barrier to faster debt relief

Western countries this week ratcheted up their criticism of China, the world's largest bilateral creditor, as the main obstacle to moving ahead with debt restructuring agreements for the growing number of countries unable to service their debts. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Oct 14 that high inflation, tightening monetary policies, currency pressures and capital outflows were increasing debt burdens in many developing countries, and more progress was urgently needed. She said she discussed those issues during a dinner with African finance ministers and in many other sessions. The Group of Seven rich nations also met African finance ministers, who worry that the focus on the war in Ukraine is draining resources and attention from their pressing concerns. "Everyone agrees Russia should stop its war on Ukraine, and that would address the most significant problems that Africa faces," Yellen told reporters at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Washington. But she said a more effective debt restructuring process was also needed, and China had a big role to play. "Really, the barrier to making greater progress is one important creditor country, namely China," she said. "So there has been much discussion of what we can do to bring China to the table and to foster a more effective solution." Click here to read... [3]

G7 fails to reach intervention deal to ease pain of soaring dollar

Japan and other countries facing the fallout from a soaring US dollar found little comfort from last week's meetings of global finance officials, with no sign that joint intervention along the lines of the 1985 "Plaza Accord" was on the horizon. With a strong push from Japan, finance leaders of the Group of Seven advanced economies included a phrase in a statement on Oct 12 saying they will closely monitor "recent volatility" in markets. But the warning, as well as Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki's threat of another yen-buying intervention, failed to prevent the currency from sliding to fresh 32-year lows against the dollar as the week came to a close. While Suzuki may have found allies grumbling over the fallout from the US central bank's aggressive interest rate hike path, he conceded that no plan for a coordinated intervention was in the works. "Many countries saw the need for vigilance to the spill-over effect of global monetary tightening, and mentioned currency moves in that context. But there wasn't any discussion on what coordinated steps could be taken," Suzuki said in a news conference on Oct 13 after attending separate meetings of the G7 and G20 finance leaders in Washington. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made clear that Washington had no appetite for concerted action, saying the dollar's overall strength was a "natural result of different paces of monetary tightening in the United States and other countries." Click here to read... [4]

Inflation Expands Beyond Supply-Chain Struggles to Service Sector

Inflation started in goods affected by supply-chain issues. It isn’t ending that way. While costs to transport goods have declined and supply-chain snarls are easing, prices are now rising briskly in services. Core service prices, which exclude energy, jumped 0.8% in September from August, the Labour Department reported Oct 13, driven by shelter, medical care and car insurance. Core goods prices, which exclude food and energy, were flat. For the 12 months ended September, core service prices were up 6.7%, the fastest since 1982. They are now rising faster than core goods prices, which rose 6.6% the same month, down from a peak of 12.3% in February. Services made up 74% of the 12-month increase in the core consumer-price index in September, the most in 18 months, according to investment bank UBS. That is up from around 50% earlier this year. In the separate price index of personal-consumption expenditures, which the Fed prefers, prices declined in both July and August for goods while rising in services. Some economists are concerned that the broadening of inflation to the service sector is making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower inflation to its 2% target over the long run. Click here to read... [5]

Rosneft gets into oil shipping ahead of EU embargo

Russian oil major Rosneft is expanding its tanker chartering business in a bid to simplify oil delivery to customers ahead of the EU sanctions, which include a ban on insuring Russian oil shipments, Reuters reported on Oct 18, citing people familiar with the matter. Prior to sanctions, Rosneft was using the free-on-board (FOB) scheme in oil sales, offering the crude at port, while the buyer had to charter tankers, pay freight, insurance, and delivery costs. Previously, the company had long-term contracts with major trading groups that covered most of the operational costs. But with the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Russian oil coming into force on December 5, customers are asking Rosneft to ensure delivery to the final destination and cover insurance and freight expenses. Russia still sells substantial volumes of crude to the EU, but once the embargo comes into effect, it will have to redirect 25% of its oil exports to new markets. Data from Refinitiv Eikon shows that seaborne exports of Russian Urals crude to Asia have already jumped six-fold in January-September compared to the same period in 2021. India increased its oil purchases by 13.5 times year-on-year in the first eight months of this year. China, meanwhile, became the biggest importer of Russian oil between May and July 2022. Click here to read... [6]

US Treasury Secretary reveals Russian oil price cap target

Setting a price ceiling for Russian oil at about $60 per barrel is expected to reduce Moscow’s energy revenues while still ensuring profitable production, according to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. “So, certainly a price in that range would be sufficient to feel that Russia could profitably produce and sell oil,” she told an event at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington, adding that Russia’s cost of production was “low.” Yellen stressed that Moscow has been willing to produce and sell oil in the $60 range over the past five to seven years. Russian Urals crude has traded at around $75 a barrel in recent months, or a $17 discount to benchmark Brent futures. “The objective is to protect the world from the consequences of a global spike in oil prices,” the top official said in relation to the price cap. She added that Washington and its allies are still discussing where to set the price for a capping mechanism. Washington’s efforts to set a price cap on Russian oil to deprive Moscow of energy revenue gained support from the G7 countries. But large importers like India and China, along with many developing countries, did not join them. Click here to read... [7]

Tehran proposes new energy plan

Tehran says it wants to establish an energy consortium and a joint investment fund to boost cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Iranian deputy oil minister, Ahmed Asadzadeh said on Oct 13. “It is necessary to create a joint investment fund to strengthen cooperation in the energy sector in Eurasia. We can also establish a joint energy consortium with the participation of both public and private companies,” he said in a speech at Russian Energy Week.The EEU, which brings together Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, has good prospects in the energy sector, according to the Iranian official, but it lacks infrastructure. He cited weak rail links as a hurdle for future development. Asadzadeh also explained that the North-South International Transport Corridor could cut costs by about 50% and save time. Currently, the main overland route for cargo from Iran to Russia passes through Azerbaijan. This is part of the so-called International North-South Transport Corridor, a 7,200-kilometer-long multi-mode transit system that connects ship, rail, and road routes for moving cargo between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Central Asia, Russia and the rest of Europe. Though the corridor existed back in Soviet times, developing it further has taken on a new importance as Western sanctions have forced Russia to shift its trade routes more towards Asia and the Middle East. Click here to read... [8]

Putin offers Türkiye deal on EU gas supplies

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed building a major gas hub in Türkiye to handle supplies previously directed through the Nord Steam pipelines. The plan was put forward during a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Kazakhstan on Oct 13. The hub could also become a platform for determining gas prices, avoiding the politicization of this issue, Putin said. “In the course of the work of this hub, which we could create together, of course, it would also be a platform not only for supplies, but also for determining the price, because this is a very important issue - the issue of pricing," Putin told Erdogan. He called the current cost of gas “sky-high,” adding that “we could easily regulate [them] at a normal market level, without any political overtones". The proposal comes as Russia looks to redirect supplies away from the Nord Stream gas pipelines, damaged in explosions last month. The president noted that Russia supplies gas to Türkiye at full scale, adding that Ankara has become the most reliable partner for the transit of Russian energy resources to Europe. Putin first suggested the creation of a gas hub in Türkiye on Oct 12 during his address at the Russia Energy Week conference. Click here to read... [9]

China To Stop Reselling LNG To Europe

Chinese state-owned energy giants have been recently told by authorities to stop reselling liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to gas-starved Europe, in what could be a blow to the European hopes of continuous high inflows of LNG as the winter approaches. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top planning body, has told the country’s state-held LNG importers, including Sinopec, Petro China, and CNOOC, that they should stop reselling LNG cargoes and keep them to ensure Chinese gas supply this winter, sources familiar with the development told Bloomberg on Oct 17. In recent months, Chinese LNG importers have been selling their excess inventories to Europe and reaping big profits from the sales because of lackluster demand in China. Chinese domestic demand has been hit by incessant snap city-wide Covid lockdowns and a slowdown in economic growth. So Chinese sales of LNG have been a relief to the European market so far this year. But as China now moves to cater to its own energy security this winter, Europe’s LNG supply could dwindle just ahead of the winter heating season. Gas prices in Europe have dropped from record highs and hit on Oct 17 the lowest level in three months after the EU is reportedly looking to introduce measures to limit the market volatility of the benchmark European natural gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub. Click here to read... [10]

Biden to release 15 million barrels from US oil reserves: Official

President Joe Biden will announce on Oct 19 he's putting the final 15 million barrels on the market from a record release of US strategic oil reserves, with more releases possible if energy prices spike, a senior US official said. The new tranche of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will be "completing the 180 million barrel release authorised in the spring", in response to price hikes linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a senior US official said on Oct 18. The order, which Biden will announce in a speech, means the president will be "making clear that the administration is prepared to undertake significant additional ... sales this winter if they are needed due to Russian or other actions disrupting global markets," the official added. The decision to make the biggest ever dip into the emergency oil reserves - usually kept for responding to situations such as hurricane-related shutdowns at oil refineries - was Biden's gambit to calm energy markets and shield the world's biggest economy from Ukraine war shocks. Major energy exporter Russia was hit with US and European sanctions soon after it invaded Ukraine in February, causing turmoil on markets. In addition, the Kremlin has threatened to use its leverage over energy supplies as an economic weapon against the West, which supports Ukraine's fight to repel the invasion. Click here to read... [11]

Chip Maker TSMC Weighs Expansion in Japan to Reduce Geopolitical Risk

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is considering expanding its production capacity in Japan, people familiar with the matter said, in what would be a move by the world’s largest contract chip maker to reduce geopolitical risk. The Japanese government has signaled that it would like TSMC to expand in the country beyond a factory already under construction, but no decision has been made yet and TSMC is studying the feasibility, these people said.The Taiwanese company, which makes chips for a host of major electronics products including those of Apple Inc., is building its first chip-manufacturing plant in Japan, located on the southern island of Kyushu. The multibillion-dollar plant is subsidized by the Japanese government. The semiconductor industry has been in upheaval since last year when widespread chip shortages snarled auto making and other industries. At the same time, the U.S. and allies such as Japan have grown concerned about the rise of the Chinese semiconductor industry and the concentration of chip making in Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing claims as part of its territory. TSMC’s factory under construction in Japan is part of the response to these issues, boosting production capacity in a U.S. ally. The plant is set to focus on less-advanced chips commonly used in autos and components like sensors, and it is scheduled to ship products in late 2024. Click here to read... [12]

Automakers need more time to meet US minerals requirements for EVs: Execs

US legislators need to give automakers operating in the United States more time to achieve the required sourcing levels of battery minerals used in electric vehicles to qualify for federal tax incentives, several industry executives said on Oct 19. The Inflation Reduction Act, as currently written, requires automakers to have 50 per cent of critical minerals used in EV batteries come from North America or US allies by 2024, rising to 80 per cent by the end of 2026. Volkswagen Americas Chief Executive Pablo Di Si said the industry cannot move that fast."All of us source from different parts of the world and changing these long-term contracts, you don't do that from one day to the next. We have 10, 15, 20-year commitments," Di Si said at the Reuters Events auto conference in Detroit. US lawmakers need to create a more phased-in process that goes out to 2030 instead, he and Hyundai Motor Co Chief Operating Officer Jose Munoz said at the Reuters event. "When we saw the IRA, we were not happy," Munoz said in a separate interview, referring to the new law. "We believe it's unfair," he added, pointing out that none of the South Korean automaker's EVs qualify for the credit. Click here to read... [13]

China carves path to Indian Ocean with Myanmar rail network

When the West cut off aid to Myanmar after the military took control in 2021, China rushed to fill the vacuum under its Belt and Road infrastructure-building initiative. But growing concern over China's so-called debt trap diplomacy threatens the progress of a jewel of the initiative, the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Part of the project appears to be full-steam ahead after a rail network section that connects western China to Myanmar begun operating in recent months. For Beijing, the development is seen as crucial because it has the potential to open up a vital route to the Indian Ocean. In June, freight trucks carrying 60 containers' worth of electronics, auto parts and other goods arrived in Mandalay, Myanmar's second-largest city. The freight had originally left Chongqing, China, on a train in late May before being placed on trucks in the Yunnan Province city of Lincang and taken over the border in Myanmar's Shan State. The new route was made possible by a railway link between the western Chinese cities of Lincang and Dali, which began operating in December 2020. It will "shorten the transportation distance and time" and optimize international shipments from inland China to the Middle East and Europe, China's Communist Party-affiliated Global Times reported. Click here to read... [14]

In skeptical Australia, Singapore PM says China 'good' for CPTPP

Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Oct 18 said China's participation in a major trans-Pacific free trade agreement would be "good" for the bloc, reiterating the city-state's positive stance even as other players appear more skeptical -- including Australia, where Lee was visiting."I think it's good if China is able to join the CPTPP," Lee said during a joint news conference with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, referring to the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, to which China applied in September 2021. Just last week, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell told Nikkei Asia that he did not believe there was "any prospect that China could join," suggesting Beijing would first need to show it is willing to abide by fair trade rules. Lee acknowledged that joining the CPTPP requires a consensus among all existing members. As this year's chair of the CPTPP committee, he said Singapore was "canvassing views." China would "of course have to meet the requirements fully, of the conditions and obligations," he added. "But I think that's something which is possible and can be negotiated," Lee said. In his first official visit to Australia since Albanese took office in May, Lee's comments highlighted the differences within the CPTPP over China's possible involvement. Click here to read... [15]

Global cost of cybercrime may reach 10.5 trillion USD by 2025: Interpol official

Incidents of cybercrime and online child abuse are significantly underreported, and the global cost of cybercrime is expected to reach 10.5 trillion U.S. dollars by 2025, said Interpol Secretary General Jurgen Stock in the Indian capital on Oct 17. Addressing media ahead of Interpol's 90th General Assembly, which begins in New Delhi on Oct 18, Stock said that organized crime networks were making billions of dollars, and the fact that less than 1 percent of global illicit financial flows were intercepted and recovered should be of greater concern to everyone. The four-day Interpol event would see the participation of delegations from 195 Interpol members comprising ministers, police chiefs, heads of national central bureaus and senior police officers. The General Assembly is Interpol's supreme governing body and meets once a year to make key decisions related to its functioning. The secretary general further said that Interpol had developed its global stop-payment mechanism, the Anti-Money Laundering Rapid Response Protocol, which in the past 10 months alone had helped members recover more than 60 million U.S. dollars in criminal proceeds from cyber-enabled fraud. "Our Global Crime Trend Report also highlighted the massive increase in online child sexual exploitation and abuse, figures which are only set to increase” Stock said. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Transcript: President Xi Jinping's report to China's 2022 party congress

The following is the full text of Chinese President Xi Jinping's report to 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China Oct. 16. The text was provided to reporters covering the event. Follow Nikkei Asia's in-depth coverage of Chinese politics here. "Hold High the Great Banner of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics and Strive in Unity to Build a Modern Socialist Country in All Respects". "Comrades, On behalf of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), I will now deliver a report to the 20th National Congress. The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is a meeting of great importance. It takes place at a critical time as the entire Party and the Chinese people of all ethnic groups embark on a new journey to build China into a modern socialist country in all respects and advance toward the Second Centenary Goal. The theme of this Congress is holding high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics, fully implementing the Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, carrying forward the great founding spirit of the Party, staying confident and building strength, upholding fundamental principles and breaking new ground, forging ahead with enterprise and fortitude, and striving in unity to build a modern socialist country in all respects and advance the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts. Click here to read... [17]

(CPC Congress) CPC expounds on main objectives, tasks for next 5 years

The Communist Party of China (CPC) unveiled the main objectives and tasks for the next five years in a report submitted to the 20th CPC National Congress, which opened on Oct 16. The main objectives and tasks for this period are as follows: -- Make breakthroughs in promoting high-quality economic development; achieve greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology; make major progress in creating a new pattern of development and building a modernized economy;-- Make new strides in reform and opening up; make further progress in modernizing China's system and capacity for governance; further improve the socialist market economy; put in place new systems for a higher-standard open economy; -- Further enhance the institutions, standards, and procedures of whole-process people's democracy; improve the system of socialist rule of law with Chinese characteristics; -- Enrich the intellectual and cultural lives of our people; enhance the cohesion of the Chinese nation and the appeal of Chinese culture; -- Ensure personal income grows basically in step with economic growth and pay rises in tandem with increases in productivity; ensure much more equitable access to basic public services; develop a better multi-tiered social security system. Click here to read... [18]

Russia has changed its tactics in Ukraine – senior official

About 30% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been damaged after two consecutive days of Russian missile attacks, the country’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko has told CNN. Moscow called the strikes on Oct 10 and Oct 11 a response to Ukrainian “terrorist attacks” on Russian soil. The top Ukrainian official said on Oct 11 that his country for the “first time from the beginning of the war” experienced large-scale Russian attacks on infrastructure, according to the US news channel.He assessed that Europe suffered, too, by proxy, because Kiev had to suspend the export of electricity. Ukraine “helps European countries to save on Russian gas and coal” and wants to “reconnect quickly from the other sources,” Galushchenko stated. The minister claimed that the Ukrainian energy system remained stable but urged other nations to expedite sending to Kiev air defense systems, to protect its infrastructure from further attacks. “We send this message to our partners: we need to protect the sky,” he was quoted as saying. The Russian military launched dozens of missiles on targets in Ukraine, which included its key infrastructure sites. Moscow called the military action retaliation for a number of sabotage plots targeting crucial Russian facilities, including the Kursk nuclear power plant, the TurkStream gas pipeline and the Crimean Bridge.Click here to read... [19]

‘Troubled marriage’: Oil spat unlikely to break US-Saudi ties

Despite growing anger in Washington and US President Joe Biden’s threat that Saudi Arabia will face “consequences” over oil production cuts, analysts say a fundamental change in relations between the United States and the Gulf kingdom is unlikely. The furore over a recently announced oil output reduction is the latest display of tensions between the two allies, whose ties have endured a series of setbacks in recent years. “I don’t think we’re likely to see a divorce proceeding from this sort of troubled marriage,” said AnnelleSheline, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a US-based think tank. “But I do imagine that we may continue to see more discontent from both the Americans and the Saudis, and just this question of ‘Why do we continue to take this from this country that calls itself our partner?'” Riyadh has faced a firestorm of criticism in Washington after OPEC+ – which brings together OPEC and other oil producers, namely Russia – announced the output cuts this month. The move will likely push up petrol prices for US consumers ahead of crucial midterm elections next month, and key Democratic Party lawmakers have called for fundamentally reassessing the US-Saudi partnership and for going so far as to end security cooperation with the kingdom. Click here to read... [20]

Russia, Iran defiant amid UN pressure over Ukraine drones

Russia has warned the United Nations against investigating its use of drones in Ukraine, amid accusations the weapons came from Iran and were used in violation of UN arms restrictions on the Middle Eastern country.The United States, France and the United Kingdom called a closed-door Security Council meeting on the drones after an attack on Kyiv on Oct 17 that killed at least five people, and caused widespread damage to power stations and other civilian infrastructure. Ukraine says its military has shot down more than 220 Iranian drones, formally known as uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV), in little more than a month and has invited UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to Ukraine to inspect some of the wreckage it has collected. Speaking after the Security Council meeting on Oct 19, Russia’s Deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy insisted the weapons had been made in Russia and condemned “baseless accusations and conspiracy theories”. He called on Guterres and his staff to “abstain from engaging in any illegitimate investigation. Otherwise, we will have to reassess our collaboration with them, which is hardly in anyone’s interests,” he told reporters. The US and European Union say they have evidence that Iran supplied Russia with Shahed-136s, low-cost drones that explode on landing. Click here to read... [21]

Russia Ramps Up Security Measures at Home and in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin implemented a range of tighter security measures across the country and declared martial law in parts of Ukraine recently claimed by Moscow, as the Kremlin grapples with a faltering military campaign abroad and fallout from an unpopular troop mobilization at home. A decree signed by Mr. Putin on Oct 19 gives local governments in each of the country’s regions varying degrees of new authority to address security concerns. Measures are aimed at maintaining public order, boosting industrial production in support of the military campaign and protecting critical infrastructure, Mr. Putin said in a televised address to his security council. The implementation of martial law, which goes into effect on Oct 20, grants Moscow-backed officials in the partially occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson a number of powers. These include curfews, detention for up to 30 days of anyone, restrictions on freedom of movement, forced resettlement and the internment of citizens from any country deemed to be waging war against Russia, according to the text of the law published on the government’s official legal information website. Increased security measures have also been introduced in Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014. Click here to read... [22]

'We want respect': Putin's authority tested in Central Asia

Sensing that Russia has been weakened by its war in Ukraine, some of its closest allies in Central Asia are displaying a newly assertive streak. The region's five former Soviet republics are increasingly standing up to Moscow, aware of their new-found leverage as Russia looks to their markets and trade routes in a bid to circumvent Western sanctions. The new dynamic was strikingly illustrated when Russian President Vladimir Putin ran into a seven-minute tirade from the leader of Tajikistan, one of the region's smallest and poorest countries, at a summit in Kazakhstan last week. "We want respect. Nothing else. Respect," said Emomali Rakhmon, Tajikistan's president since 1994, complaining that Moscow's attitude had not improved since the Soviet era. Putin listened uncomfortably. A video of the embittered speech surfaced at the weekend and was not part of the official coverage of the Oct 14 summit, during which he urged his southern neighbours to build new logistics chains after Western sanctions over Ukraine disrupted much of Russia's trade. Data shows Central Asian nations, including Tajikistan, have already sharply increased foreign trade turnover, likely by re-exporting goods to Russia which it could not buy directly because of sanctions and the exodus of foreign businesses. Click here to read... [23]

South Korea pushes nuke-sharing talks with US – media

South Korea is pushing the US for the creation of a nuclear weapons-sharing scheme, newspaper Chosun Ilbo has claimed. According to the outlet, Seoul would like to see American aircraft carriers or nuclear-powered submarines stationed near the Korean Peninsula. The news comes hard on the heels of massive ballistic missile tests conducted by North Korea in recent weeks that simulated nuclear strikes. In its report published on Oct 13, the Korean daily quoted an unnamed high-ranking government official in Seoul as saying “If North Korea pushes ahead with a seventh nuclear test, we will face a whole new level of threat.” With that in mind, South Korea is allegedly discussing with the US “ways to radically strengthen” Washington’s “extended deterrence.” The article named the rotational deployment of an American aircraft carrier group equipped with nuclear weapons or nuclear-powered submarines near the Korean Peninsula as the option advocated by Seoul. “What’s being discussed is a [South] Korean-style nuclear sharing scheme that could avoid triggering protests from neighbouring countries and a regional nuclear arms buildup,” an anonymous security official is quoted as saying. According to Chosun Ilbo, both the White House and US State Department have refused to comment on the allegations. Click here to read... [24]

UK wants China to stop hiring its ex-military pilots – media

The UK's Ministry of Defence (MoD) is reportedly alarmed by China’s alleged hiring of some 30 veteran British military pilots to teach trainees in the People’s Liberation Army. The practice is legal and was first noticed by the British government in 2019, when a handful of such cases were identified, an unnamed official explained, according to several Western news outlets, including the BBC, Sky News and the New York Times. According to media reports, the MoD considers the situation grave enough to issue a formal “threat alert” to warn serving and former pilots about the Chinese recruitment drive. “We are taking decisive steps to stop Chinese recruitment schemes,” an MoD spokesperson said as quoted by the press. The statement reminded that military personnel were “subject to the Official Secrets Act” and stated that the ministry was “reviewing the use of confidentiality contracts and non-disclosure agreements” to deal with such issues. According to the primary source, which was described as a “Western official” or an official in the British MoD by reporters, China pays the pilots $270,000 a year. Pilots familiar with US-made F-35 fighter jets have not been recruited, the source claimed. But those who flew older models, such as the Typhoon, Harrier, Jaguar and Tornado, as well as military helicopters, including Wildcat and Merlin, are now working for China, the official added. Click here to read... [25]

Taiwan clarifies ‘first strike’ definition

Taiwan has vowed to shoot down Beijing's planes and drones that breach its airspace, saying it will consider such flyovers as a “first strike” and respond in force if aircraft ignore warnings to turn back. Speaking to lawmakers on Oct 13, Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng was asked to elaborate on the “first strike” designation, as officials previously said “countermeasures” would be taken against aircraft incursions but did not specify any particular response. Chiu said the military would first lock onto incoming drones or planes and issue a warning, and then launch a “defensive counterattack” if the aircraft remained in airspace claimed by Taiwan. Pressed on whether that would mean Beijing and Taipei “going to war,” the defence chief answered “Yes, in which case the situation would be very serious,” adding “This is why the military has been exercising self-restraint and does not pull the trigger recklessly.” Chiu first discussed the update to the island’s security policy during a legislative session last week, explaining that while a “first strike” was previously defined as artillery or missile attacks, Chinese drone flights over Taiwanese airspace have increased in frequency and caused “a lot of trouble” in recent months, prompting the change. Click here to read... [26]

Iraqi parliament elects Abdul Latif Rashid as new president

Lawmakers in Iraq have elected Kurdish politician Abdul Latif Rashid as the country’s new president, paving the way for the formation of a new government and ending a year of deadlock, even as rockets landed near the parliament building. Rashid replaced fellow Iraqi Kurd Barham Saleh as head of state after the two-round vote in parliament on Oct 13, winning more than 160 votes against 99 for Saleh, an assembly official said. Saleh reportedly walked out of the parliament building as the votes were tallied. Shia politician Mohammed Shia al-Sudani was quickly named prime minister-designate, assuming the task of reconciling feuding Shia factions and forming a government after a year of deadlock. Al-Sudani replaces caretaker Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi. In Iraq’s power-sharing system, the presidency is reserved for Kurdish groups to nominate while the premiership falls under Shia blocs. The speaker of parliament is a Sunni. Reporting from Baghdad, Al Jazeera’s Mahmoud Abdelwahed said the election of Rashid signals that “this chapter of rivalry has been concluded in the Iraqi parliament,” while noting that forming a government could still be an uphill battle. “It remains to be seen what reactions could unfold in the streets given the fact that this has not been easy,” Abdelwahed said.Click here to read... [27]

While Kim Jong Un Shows World ‘Fire and Fury,’ He Projects Different Message at Home

To the outside world, North Korea’s recent missile activity is familiar: a flight over Japan, claims of weapons advances and threats to rivals in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo. But inside the rogue nation, these events are being portrayed much differently than they were in the past. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un hasn’t shown up to many of the launches this year after skipping all of them in 2021. News of many recent tests has been published on the inside pages of the Rodong Sinmun, Pyongyang’s main state-run newspaper. Some don’t get written up at all. In the past, state media reported on virtually every missile test. When Mr. Kim attended, the launches were often featured on the front page and on national broadcasts. Unlike the North’s string of major provocations five years ago, when former President Donald Trump threatened to respond with “fire and fury,” Mr. Kim and the country’s media have put more focus on farming, as a national food shortage worsens due to Covid-19 border lockdowns, as well as bad weather and supply-chain problems. The shift was apparent earlier this month, as North Korea celebrated the founding anniversary of its ruling Workers’ Party. Mr. Kim, breaking with convention, didn’t organize a military parade or oversee mass celebrations in downtown Pyongyang. Instead, he inspected a new farm built on grounds that used to be a military airfield and missile-launch site. Wearing a trench coat and a black hat, the 38-year-old dictator squatted among rows of vegetables inside one of the facility’s 800 greenhouses. Click here to read... [28]

Japan, Australia to seek security agreement when premiers meet this week: Report

Japan and Australia seek to reach a new security agreement with particular regard to China's maritime expansion when the two countries' prime ministers meet in Perth on Oct 22, Japan's Nikkei business daily reported on Oct 18. The two US allies have been fortifying security ties as a counterbalance to China's growing military strength. In May, Japan's Fumio Kishida and Australia's Anthony Albanese agreed to work toward a new bilateral declaration on security cooperation. Coordination in defence and economic security for realising a free and open Indo-Pacific region will likely go into the declaration, the Nikkei reported, without citing sources. An official at Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Reuters that it was too early to comment on what will be achieved at the meeting. The Australian prime minister's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The countries' previous joint declaration on security cooperation, agreed by then-prime ministers Shinzo Abe and John Howard in 2007, stipulates cooperation in such areas as counter-terrorism and North Korea's missile and nuclear weapons programmes. Kishida and Albanese are also set to confirm cooperation in energy and natural resources, the Nikkei reported. Australia is Japan's biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas. Click here to read... [29]

Kishida orders investigation into Unification Church activities

In a rare move, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Oct. 17 instructed the education minister to investigate the Unification Church, a religious organization under heavy public criticism over its donation-collection methods. “The prime minister told me to start (the investigation) to address the issue,” Keiko Nagaoka, the education minister, said. “We are ready to begin right away.” Well, not quite. The investigation will be conducted based on the Religious Corporations Law, which grants government authorities the “right to question” such corporations. The investigation into the church will be the first using this right. At the Lower House’s Budget Committee session later on Oct. 17, Nagaoka said that her ministry wants to clarify in advance how it will proceed with the right to question the church. The ministry will set up a panel of experts on religion, legal matters and religious corporations to gain feedback on the matter. She said the ministry on Oct. 25 will begin studying how to approach the right to question and start procedures to investigate after gaining approval from the Religious Corporations Council, an advisory panel to the education minister. “We think it is necessary to make a response as quickly as possible,” Nagaoka told the Diet session. “We will take steps so that we can exercise (the right to question) at the earliest possible time by the end of this year.” Click here to read... [30]

Stealthiest U.S. submarine makes rare appearance in Arabian Sea

Once submerged, a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine typically remains under water for 70 days. Virtually undetectable, the Ohio-class SSBN is the stealthiest submarine in the U.S. Navy fleet. Unlike the Los Angeles-class or Virginia-class nuclear-powered fast attack submarines that carry conventional weapons and can make port visits around the world, nuclear-missile equipped SSBNs typically do not make public appearances. In the rare case that they do, it is either in U.S. waters or in the ports of America's top ally, the U.K. But on Oct 20 morning, Asia time, the U.S. Central Command tweeted that its commander, Gen. Michael Kurilla, had visited the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS West Virginia (SSBN 736) at an undisclosed location in international waters in the Arabian Sea. The unprecedented move in the Indian Ocean region, roughly equidistant from Moscow and Beijing, had analysts contemplating who the signalling was intended for and what the message was. The timing comes as China holds a weeklong national congress of the Chinese Communist Party, where President Xi Jinping is expected to be given an unprecedented third term as leader. At the meeting, Xi described the unification of Taiwan with mainland China as "a historic mission" of the party and threatened to use force, if necessary, to achieve it. Click here to read... [31]

Iran opposes deployment of foreign forces to Caucasus region: FM

Iran is opposed to the deployment of foreign forces to the Caucasus region, the Iranian Foreign Ministry's website reported on Oct 16. Iran supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries including Azerbaijan and Armenia, and this approach is the permanent policy of Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a telephone conversation with his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov on Oct 15. "The presence of foreign forces in the Caucasus is a common concern of the regional countries," he said, stressing "Iran's opposition to the deployment of any foreign forces in the region." For his part, Bayramov expressed his opposition to the presence of foreign forces in the region. Click here to read... [32]

Health

No way out in sight for China's zero-COVID strategy

For almost three years, China has been implementing one of the strictest pandemic control policies in the world, shutting down borders, imposing lockdowns across the country and conducting mass-scale COVID-19 tests to try and contain the spread of coronavirus. Millions of Chinese residents have been wondering whether authorities may begin to ease these stringent measures, but the latest signal from the Chinese leader has dashed that hope. On Oct 16, Chinese President Xi Jinping lauded the success of the zero-COVID strategy, arguing that the policy has saved lives while saying China has launched an "all-out people's war to stop the spread of the virus." His message comes amid reinforced calls from Chinese state media for Beijing to persist with its COVID-19 policies. Experts largely agree that China seems to have no plan to end the zero-COVID strategy anytime soon, nor is it prepared to pivot away from the strategy. "China lacks effective vaccines and treatment options, has a dangerously low vaccination rate for older populations, and a highly stressed health care system," said Xi Chen, an associate professor of health policy and economics at the Yale School of Public Health. Chen told DW that with the huge immunity gap, ending the zero-COVID policy would lead to an "imminent public health crisis" in China, possibly resulting in a large volume of hospitalizations and deaths in a short period of time. Click here to read... [33]

Cholera vaccine shortages force WHO to reduce advised dosage

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Oct 19 it will temporarily shift to a one-dose strategy from the standard two-dose vaccination regimen for cholera due to vaccine shortages and rising outbreaks worldwide. "The pivot in strategy will allow for the doses to be used in more countries, at a time of unprecedented rise in cholera outbreaks worldwide," WHO said in a statement on Wednesday. The statement highlighted that 29 countries had reported cholera cases in 2022, with Haiti, Syria and Malawi fighting large outbreaks of the deadly disease. Currently, Haiti has confirmed at least 32 cases and 18 deaths from cholera. "The global trend is moving towards more numerous, more widespread and more severe outbreaks, due to floods, droughts, conflict, population movements and other factors that limit access to clean water and raise the risk of cholera outbreaks," the statement highlighted. Is one dose enough? Cholera is an acute diarrheal infection caused by bacteria found in contaminated water. The disease affects millions worldwide every year. In the previous five years, fewer than 20 nations had reported such outbreaks in total. Click here to read... [34]