Fortnightly Review & Analysis - USA, Russia & EU (Vol 1 Issue IX)

(October 16-31, 2016)

USA

The high point of the fortnight was the third and last presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on October 19 at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas, where the two candidates faced off for 90 minutes with no commercial breaks. The debate covered debt and entitlements, immigration, the economy, the Supreme Court, foreign “hot spots”, and "fitness to be president."

The stakes are high for both candidates. After months of running on controversial positions on immigration, race relations, and foreign policy, Trump entered the third debate embroiled in multiple sexual assault allegations and trailing Clinton in the polls after two poor debate performances. But it was not easy for Clinton either. She was grilled about her email scandal, the Benghazi incident, the Clinton Foundation funding, leaked information from John Podesta’s emails, her health, her "basket of deplorables" comment, and so on. Further pressure was mounted on Hillary Clinton when the FBI announced it was once again investigating Clinton's use of a private email server, thereby giving Trump renewed hope in key swing states. The news that the FBI has reopened its investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private server to send, receive and store government emails has handed Donald Trump an unexpected boost ahead of the presidential election. The FBI has obtained a warrant to begin searching newly discovered emails belonging to Huma Abedin, a top aide of Hillary Clinton, with Clinton's use of emails also in the spotlight. There is no sign that this new investigation will be completed by Election Day and Clinton will have to fight the final week of her campaign with unspecified allegations hanging over her.

This is ideal for Trump who was shown to be as many as 14 points behind Clinton in some polls before this latest scandal. Clinton has been ahead almost continuously in the Telegraph's poll of polls, which takes an average of the last five polls published on Real Clear Politics. Though she still retains a lead, but this has changed dramatically and narrowed down in the following days with some polls now showing a very close race.

US and Russia

In recent weeks the U.S.-Russia relationship has reached a low point not seen since the Cold War. Syria, Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions, and accusations of hacking are just some of the bilateral bones of contention.

Against this backdrop private initiatives in the form of Track 2 dialogues and diplomatic initiatives have stepped in to salvage the situation. One such Agreement was announced on October 19 between Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and ex-U.S. President George H. W. Bush who expressed their resolve to contribute to normalizing the relations between Russia and the United States. The relevant agreement was reached during a telephone talk between Gorbachev, through the Gorbachev Foundation, former President George H. W. Bush and former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, according to a press release issued by the Gorbachev Foundation. Gorbachev gave out a statement where he stressed upon the importance of constant dialogue. He said, “Our experience is the cessation of the cold war and the arms race. During those years, our countries - the USSR and the U.S. - went through difficult trials and came out of them both in Europe and in the Middle East in a dignified manner," "This should be an example for current politicians," the former Soviet president said. "A compromise can be found in the most difficult situations. And now the goal should be to find a compromise taking into account the parties’ interests. And no one should declare a victory. If we come out of the current impasse, this will be a common victory," Gorbachev said.

According to Russian news agency TASS, the Gorbachev Foundation press office said that George H. W. Bush and Baker had agreed with this proposal. "The interlocutors agreed that they will seek to contribute to normalizing the relations and restoring cooperation between the two countries. They will think about the steps, including joint measures, they could take for this."

While this may yet be a very tentative beginning, but it does show that there is increasing realization in the US that Russia cannot be ignored.

EU and BREXIT

In an important judgment, London's High Court of Justice has ruled that British Prime Minister Theresa May must get the approval of British lawmakers before she can begin the process of leaving the European Union. It is anticipated that the U.K. court ruling will help resurface wishful thinking of a Brexit reversal. What matters here, however, is not whether Brexit will happen but rather how it will happen.

In the past fortnight much of the debate surrounding the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union has centered on how the Brexit process should begin. Questions have been raised as to whether British Prime Minister Theresa May can legally open negotiations with Brussels without Parliament's approval. Meanwhile, the priorities May's administration will set for the talks are still up for debate, as are the futures of Scotland, Northern Ireland and the London financial sector. But despite the emphasis on these pressing issues, which will no doubt need to be addressed, several recent events suggest that wrapping up the negotiations may prove even trickier than starting them.

While it's it is unlikely that enough MPs will vote against triggering Article 50 to stop Brexit altogether, there may be lengthy wrangling over a Bill that pleases everyone, said Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics and international relations at the University of Kent. Speaking to CNN, he further added, "There could potentially be further delays, particularly as Labour, the Scottish National Party, and Liberal Democrat MPs are demanding more detail on the proposed Brexit deal." This is because though 421 Parliamentarians in England and Wales voted for Brexit, so for the remaining MPs to push against the popular vote would not be easy. Besides

Then there's Scotland to consider. Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has previously vowed to keep her country -which voted 68% to 32% in favor of Remain - in the EU. Following Thursday's court ruling, Sturgeon said Scottish National Party MPs "will certainly not vote for anything that undermines the will or the interests of the Scottish people." The Scottish Parliamentarians are demanding a special deal that will give Scotland access to the EU single market and therefore prefer that Britain should stay in the Customs Union which would rule out possibility of ant separate trade deals with non-EU countries. What impact would this have on India-UK trade negotiations?

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