Fortnightly Review & Analysis - USA, EU and Eurasia (Vol 1 Issue III)

(July 16-31, 2016)

USA

Hillary Clinton was formally nominated as the Democratic Party candidate for the November 8 US Presidential elections at the Party’s National Convention at Philadelphia on July 28. She accepted the Democratic nomination with "humility, determination and boundless confidence in America's promise," taking her place as the first woman to win a presidential ticket on a night high on emotions. Soon after securing her nomination, the former first lady, Senator and Secretary of State announced, "When there are no ceilings, the sky's the limit."

Her acceptance speech was sober and she portrayed herself as “a practical, dogged, policy-oriented striver who gets knocked down and then gets straight back up.” In her speech, she also presented herself as a dedicated and indefatigable fighter for children, the disabled, blue-collar workers, women and the poor, and vowed to wipe out ISIS through her steely determined efforts.

She reached out to disappointed Bernie Sanders voters and guaranteed to heal the deep schisms within the Party that had become more aggravated due to a contentious primary race. With the Vermont senator watching from the sidelines, Clinton told his supporters: "I've heard you. Your cause is our cause."

Hillary Clinton received a thumping endorsement from Barack Obama. In a Tweet he complimented her on her "Great speech” and went on to add, “She's tested. She's ready. She never quits. That's why Hillary should be our next @POTUS.”

Clinton blasted Republican nominee Donald Trump, portraying him as a “small man who got rich by stifling workers, who peddles fear and who lacks the temperament to be commander-in-chief.” She spoke at length about the businessman’s character and temperament, saying “a man you can bait with a tweet is not a man we can trust with nuclear weapons”. But despite her claims of Donald Trump’s inadequacies, and her insistence that the Democratic path is the clear choice for America, Hillary Clinton is in the midst of a tight race.

The latest challenge came from reports about a newly disclosed cyber attack. According to Reuters, “the computer network used by Clinton's campaign, which is based in Brooklyn, had been hacked as part of a broad cyber attack on Democratic political organizations.” According to two independent US cyber security firms, Fidelis Cyber Security and Threat Connect, there is detailed evidence to show that these intrusions are linked to Russian hacking groups that in turn have links with its official intelligence agencies. Russia has however denied the role of its government or any government agency in the episode.

Trump too faces a backlash as he has raked up a senseless controversy by attacking the family of a highly decorated Muslim American War Hero, Captain Humayun Khan, who died heroically while fighting for the US in Iraq in 2004. It promises to be an interesting campaign between two candidates, both controversial, but who are complete opposites of each other.

Russia

On July 30 Putin traveled to Slovenia to attend a World War I memorial and a ceremony to mark the one-hundredth anniversary of the death of 300 Russian prisoners of war in an avalanche in the Julian Alps in 1916.

Putin said “We will continue our efforts to educate and present history to people, in particular to the youth with the objective of not only remembering the sufferings and trouble caused by wars, but also to raise awareness about the need to strengthen reason, confidence and security in Europe and the world.”

The Russian president met with his Slovenian counterpart Borut Pahor, whose country has maintained friendly relations with Russia even as it joined EU sanctions against Moscow over the Ukrainian crisis.

Pahor was quoted by Russia’s TASS agency as saying that Putin’s visit “pays respect to the traditional friendship of Slovenia and Russia, despite some differences in the two countries’ relations over their positions on certain pressing issues.” Slovenia has described Putin's one-day visit as strictly informal but one that would also focus on economic and bilateral issues.

EU diplomats however told Reuters that they fear Russia is lobbying friendly European states, including Slovenia, to erode the bloc's unity on sanctions against Moscow. One diplomat said, "Russia is constantly trying to find a way around the sanctions, targeting countries it thinks are softer. They are trying to kill the sanctions with a soft approach,” by targeting countries like Italy, Greece, Hungary, Cyprus, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Bulgaria.

Europe

According to a recent Pew Research Center survey of 10 countries in the European Union, recent incidents of terror in France and Germany have started to fuel anti-refugee, anti-Muslim fears in a Europe made uneasy by large-scale attacks in the last year. Across Europe, a median of 49 percent believe that the large number of refugees fleeing countries such as Iraq and Syria pose a major threat to their country. An even larger median of 59 percent say that refugees will increase the likelihood of terrorism in their country. And a median of 43 percent have an unfavorable view of Muslims in their society.

These broadly shared negative sentiments mask a potentially more threatening political divide in Europe: Those on the right of the political spectrum are far more likely than those on the left to hold such views. This ideological divide does not bode well for the future of social harmony in a Europe that has a rapidly growing immigrant population.

Hungary’s right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban has described the arrival of asylum seekers in Europe as “a poison”, and has said his country did not want or need “a single migrant”. “Hungary does not need a single migrant for the economy to work, or the population to sustain itself or for the country to have a future,” he told a joint press conference in Budapest last week with Austrian chancellor Christian Kern.

As the killing of a priest in Normandy became the latest in a string of violent attacks to shake Europe this summer, Orban fuelled fears of Middle Eastern and African immigrants. He also praised Donald Trump’s plans for adopting tough measures to curb the inflow of immigrants into the US.

Central Asian Republics

Kazakhstan, Russia sign expanded military-technical cooperation deal

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Defense Imangali Tasmagambetov and his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu signed an agreement to expand cooperation in the field of military-technical exchanges, as quoted by the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Kazakhstan.

As a part of this framework, Kazakhstan has received 5 anti-aircraft missile systems S-300 from Russia, according to the press release. Also, Russia is completing the transfer of more than 170 anti-aircraft missiles to Kazakhstan.

Not too long ago, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had stated that Russia is monitoring and analyzing recent emergency situations in neighboring countries and is introducing additional measures ensure Russia’s border security.

While Russia and Kazakhstan have close bilateral ties, both countries are also members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military bloc of former Soviet states, which also comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Kyrgyzstan: President Takes No Hostages in Rambling Presser

The latest press conference by Kyrgyzstan’s President saw Atambayev mincing no words while speaking in favor of proposed constitutional reforms, lashing out at criticism from Turkey and tackling a host of other issues.

The central point of concern during this year’s conference year was the wide-ranging constitutional reforms that, if approved, would bolster the role of the executive, i:e, the prime minister’s office. The plan is to eventually submit the changes to a national referendum. Suggestions to modify the Constitution are particularly contentious as previous changes made in 2010 included provisions for the document to remain untouched at least until 2020. Also what is being speculated is that through such reforms, Atambayev may seek to extend his rule, to which he responded, “If I wanted to stay in power, I would have done it without parliament. I would have had no trouble doing it through a referendum by popular initiative.” The President also stated that the primary motive behind such amendments was to prevent his successor for grabbing too much power. “With the current constitution the next president could easily become a dragon,” Atambayev said, speaking about a constitution he himself ushered into being. “In order for there to be no dragon with 120 heads [the number of members of parliament], we need to change the constitution.”

The proposal to have the constitution recognize the supreme value of “love for the motherland,” “respect for the elderly” and “honor and dignity” has not gone down well with many sections of the polity and society. Such suggestions have been termed as vague if not meaningless, and terms that might seek to exterminate the current constitutional supremacy of individual human rights.

With regards to Turkey, Kyrgyzstan has reacted strongly to recent demands that Bishkek close all schools on its territory operated by US-based Turkish theologian and Ankara’s bête noire, Fethullah Gülen. Atambayev vehemently supported his government’s defiant stance and rejected speculations that Gülen adepts might plot against his government. “This is absurd. If they’re so smart, why did they miss the coup in their own country? Of course we will listen to advice and check information. But there is no grounds for trying to frighten or give us lessons,” the President responded.

Additionally, Atambayev conveyed his resentment against Washington which he sees as the main instigator of an international campaign to secure the release of jailed rights activist Azimjan Askarov. “As soon as we told their air base to ‘go home,’ they [the US State Department] gave a medal to Askarov. In America, the police kill two people every day, mainly blacks. If a policeman here killed a civilian, he would be demoted,” he said.

Furthermore, he even issued a strongly worded statement against Russia, particularly the Russian companies which failed to build two hydroelectric dams as promised by them, while adding that he bore no grudges against President Putin himself. “It is insulting when a country signs an agreement, ratifies it and then refuses to follow it through,” said the Kyrgyz President.

With respect to the rising wave of radical Islam in his country, he recently made his opinions clear by supporting anti-veil posters, condemning the increasing adoption of the Islamic headdress by the country’s women. “Wear boots on your head for all I care, but just don’t blow anybody up.” The President issued a rather controversial statement by adding, “If you don’t like secular clothes, then don’t feel obliged, go live in another country. We’ll pay your way to Syria or Bangladesh.”

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