• Prime Minister Modi’s official visit to Washington DC in Feb 2025 and meeting with President Donald Trump resulted in a joint statement in which the two sides reaffirmed their commitment to strengthen the India-US comprehensive global strategic partnership anchored in “mutual trusts, shared interests, goodwill and global engagement of their citizens”.
• In hindsight, the visit was a risky venture considering how the visiting heads of state have been treated at the White House. Fortunately, it went off well with the two sides launching a new initiative, the “US-India Compact (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership. Accelerated Commerce and Technology) for the 21st Century”.
• Defence cooperation figured higher than any other issue in the joint statement. The two sides agreed to sign a new ten-year framework for the US-India Major Defence Partnership in the 21st Century.
• From the US side, there was an emphasis on expanding defence sales to India, setting up ‘defence co-production’ facilities and strengthening ‘interoperability’. Co-production arrangements for manufacturing ‘Javelin’ anti-Tank Guided Missile and ‘Stryker’ Infantry Combat Vehicles in India were announced. A new initiative – the Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA) to scale up industry partnership and production in the Indo-Pacific was launched. A few partnerships between the Indian and US companies to ‘co-develop and co-produce’, state-of-the-art maritime systems and advanced AI-enabled counter Unmanned Ariel System (UAS) and active towed array system were launched.
• Prime Minister Modi’s visit was followed up by the visit of US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard to India in March and Vice President JD Vance in April. Gabbard focussed on defence cooperation, intelligence sharing, counter-terrorism and transnational threats while Vance made a pitch for the sale of 5th generation F-35 fighter planes.
• We have had similar positive statements at the leader’s level in the past. During Biden’s time, the two countries had launched an ambitious ICET programme on critical and emerging technology. Similarly, there was an agreement on the transfer of technology for the production of jet engines. ICET has been rebranded as US-India TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technologies). But there is little to show in these areas.
• The joint statement, issued quite early in the Trump 2.0 administration, promised further deepening of India-US defence ties. However, since then, particularly after the recent India-Pakistan conflict, several uncertainties have arisen.
  • Deep defence cooperation cannot happen without political trust. In the last few months, the political environment has changed dramatically. During OP Sindoor, President Trump made several statements, which have caused deep concern in India and shaken up the trust factor.
  • Questions are being asked where does the US stand on India and Pakistan? What is its stance on Pakistan’s support for terrorism? Why did the US allow the IMF to give a new tranche of loans to Pakistan knowing well its role in supporting terrorism?
  • Unfortunately, the US has brought back India-Pak hyphenation, which is an anathema to India. There is also a concern about the US playing a mediatory role in the resolution of the J&K issue. The US seems to be turning to Pakistan as a partner in counter-terrorism. This is déjà vu when the US courted Pakistan despite its role in supporting terrorism. In fact, in 2018, Trump himself had castigated Pakistan in a tweet accusing it of taking US money and at the same time working against US interests by supporting Osama Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda. These are India’s red lines, which should not be crossed. The Indian official statements have downplayed President Trump's tweets but the public opinion has not been so kind.
  • The recent Trump-Munir lunch, unprecedented by any reckoning , has given rise to speculation whether the US is looking for bases in Pakistan in case it decide to attack to Iran. The short point is that the security environment in the region has changed dramatically. The US and Pakistan are coming closer. This is bound to have implications for Indo-US relations.
  • There are issues in Indo-US relations, which need to be tackled urgently. India and the US should urgently arrive at an agreement on tariffs. This could be a good confidence-building measure, which will help restore the Indo-US relations, which have stalled for a while.
  • It is often said that the current US administration has little expertise at the working level in South Asia. The President is perhaps not adequately briefed on India. If correct, this situation needs to be addressed.

Further, the Indian economy is dependent upon global supply chains passing through China. President Trump for Apple to shift its investment from India to the US is unhelpful and will erode bilateral trust further.

The US and Indian views on China are unlikely to coincide fully. Both sides must appreciate this. China is a neighbour with whom India has an unsettled boundary. A large number of Indian troops are deployed on the India-China border post Galwan.

Conclusion

The global environment is highly precarious. There is uncertainty about the trajectory of US-China relations. The US-China rivalry is deepening. At the same time, US and China also seems to be working on a deal, particularly on trade and technology. This will have a global impact including in the Indo-Pacific. It will also impact India-US relations. India has a troubled relationship with Pakistan and China. China-Pakistan collusivity was at full display during OP Sindoor. This is likely to strengthen further in the coming years, particularly in the defence area. India will have to deal with Pakistan fully applied with Chinese weapons, information and technologies.

The US will have to be sensitive to Indian security concerns in its neighbourhood. India and US views on Myanmar, and Bangladesh are at variance. The regime change in Bangladesh, in which the US had probably played a role, has derailed India-Bangladesh relations. The US, which is otherwise vocal on human rights issues, is quiet about the persecution of the Hindu minority in Bangladesh. There is a need for a deeper dialogue between India and the US on these issues.

Europe and West Asia are in the throes of intense wars, which could expand. In the Asia-Pacific, China has been emboldened by its assertive leadership, military modernisation and expanding nuclear arsenal. It is positioning itself to challenge the US might as it threatens its neighbours. In this situation, India and the US need to repair their relationship.

While India promotes self-reliance in defence, it also needs to foster partnerships. The US will remain an important defence, economic and technology partner. However, this partnership cannot rest on defence sales alone. As far as India is concerned, the efficacy of the partnership will be evaluated from the angle of capability and capacity building. For that transfer of technology, joint development of IPRs, co-production etc will be important. The US will also need to respect India’s strategic autonomy.