Friends,

It is a great pleasure to welcome you all to today’s Vimarsh talk by Amb Satish Chandra on the Indus Water Treaty. Amb Chandra is the Vice Chairman of the VIF and a distinguished diplomat who served the nation for over forty years in different capacities. A significant part of his career has been in Pakistan or dealing with India-Pakistan relations. He was posted in Pakistan as High Commissioner in the late nineties. He set up the National Security Council Secretariat, was member secretary to the Kargil Review Committee and was closely involved with the enunciation of India’s nuclear doctrine. He has been associated with the VIF since its inception and contributed several seminal papers on a variety of subjects including the neighbourhood and Pakistan.

Today he is speaking on a very important subject, The Indus Water Treaty. Over two decades ago, as Dy NSA, he pioneered a thorough internal examination of the Indus Water Treaty. Even at that time, it was felt that the treaty was one-sided, it benefited Pakistan, a terror-sponsoring state and that India should examine ways of getting out of it.

Following the Pahalgam terror attack, the government has declared that it is holding the treaty in ‘abeyance’. This is an unprecedented and bold move with enormous implications for bilateral relations. It will also have an impact on India as well as Pakistan. Pakistan sees it as an act of war. India sees it as an end to a highly discriminatory agreement as it has got itself trapped for so long. The people of Kashmir regarded the treaty as unfair it deeply impacted their right to the water which flows through their territory.

So far, there has been no significant international reaction to India’s declaration of keeping the treaty in abeyance. One could be reasonably show that Pakistan will make hue a cry internationally that its rights have been infringed by India unilaterally and that India’s action is in violation of international law. India will have to build a suitable narrative for the international community.

Although there is no exit clause in the treaty, India had asked for a review last year. The treaty can be amended if both sides agree to do so. So far, to the best of my knowledge, Pakistan has not responded.

After OP Sindoor, we are in a new situation in India-Pakistan relations. Prime Minister has clarified that India will not be dissuaded by Pakistan's nuclear bluff and that it will give a fitting response to terror attacks on India. In India’s response matrix, water will play an important role. This will require India to build the necessary infrastructure to be able to use the water that will become available after keeping the treaty in abeyance. IWT as we know it is over. It remains to be seen whether there will be a new agreement.

Given his vast experience of dealing the Pakistan and his special interest in the Indus Water Treaty, we could not have a better person than Amb Satish Chandra to speak on the issue. I request him to kindly take the floor.